While the defense has been troublesome, this team hasn't exactly put together too many consecutive quarters of good offensive ball. I think the ideal goal for this club this year was to have a neutral (or as close to neutral) OE/DE ranking as possible. Right now they've improved their OE from 103.8 to 106.4 but their DE has actually increased by 0.3 to 111.5.
I still don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility with this club to see them operate around 108 in both of these categories. The Charlotte Bobcats come in at 108.8 and the Clippers are at 109.5.
That being said, this team is leaving a lot on the court in terms of offense; probably more than they are on the defensive end of the court.
The Wolves have the 15th most efficient offense in the league at 106.4 pts/100 possessions. They are the 5th highest scoring team in the league at 100.7 points/game. Defensively, they are the 28th most inefficient team in the league at 111.5 pts/100 possessions and they are the worst in terms of opponents points per game at 105.6. In other words, there is a greater dissonance between efficiency and production on the offensive end of the court than there is on defense.
Why is this the case? As one would expect, they don't get to the line very well. Despite an early push, they are back to their negative free throw ways; having both a negative differential and a very low ft/fg rate. They are losing 3 attempts and 2 makes/game at the line. Right away you can account for most of their point differential.
You can account for the other lost points with their God-awful shooting, much of it brought about by forcing regulars like Corey Brewer and Sebastian Telfair to set up camp in slower 1/2 court sets. It also doesn't help that their 3 best spot up shooters (Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and Rashad McCants) all seem to be afraid to shoot open jump shots; instead opting to pass (Miller) or drive (Foye/McCants) in a slower-paced offense not suited to best maximize their skills.
The Wolves have the 25th worst eFG in the league. They attempt the most shots/game in the league (granted, they have played some overtime games). That being said, if they shoot a baseline 45% from the floor, they make about 2 more buckets/game and we're talking about a 3-4 or 4-3 type team.
They also have a ridiculously slow pace for the type of ball they are playing. Right now they have the 19th slowest pace in the league, at 90.6. This is Utah Jazz/Miami Heat territory. I can't for the life of me think of a small ball team who plays as slowly as the Wolves do. I suspect that this, along with FT and eFG, is where a large amount of their offensive dissonance comes from. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. They have good assist, oreb%, and TO numbers, and their overall OE is solid, but they are leaving a lot on the floor with poor shooting, and a relative lack of free throws.
Defensively, they are who they are. Trying harder may help a bit but the fact remains that their internal defensive numbers (opp eff, efg, to, oreb, ft/fg) are across the board bad. There's no dissonance in these numbers. They are bad, bad, bad, bad, bad and there is little reason to think they can make a massive improvement. That being said, they aren't that far from a team like the Bobcats (who force more TOs and allow fewer relative ft/fg) or the Clippers (hold opponents to lower eFG).
This team is losing these close games more because of offense than defense. They shouldn't be this bad from the floor. They have the personnel to make this work (and get turned around quickly) on the offensive end. Not so much on defense. This team is a small ball team. Yet, it has a coach who believes it to be a slow-em-down defensive-minded squad. It's absurd.
Game Day: It's Oden Time
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 15, 2008 9:09 AM CST
16 comments
It's rematch time gents.
Over at the excellent Blazer's Edge, Dave has once again given Portland's keys to the game:
1. If you either slow down Al Jefferson's scoring or match him point for point you should be able to beat the ‘Wolves.
2. This is a game where Portland should dominate on the boards.
3. Deny the middle and make the Timberwolves score from the perimeter sidelines.
4. Offensively the Blazers need to go hard into the heart of the Minnesota defense. Post-up play is one way to do that but it allows the defense to get set. Even better: get past your initial defender and take the ball down deep. You're guaranteed to have an easy scoring attempt or a pass to someone else for an easy scoring attempt.
5. Speaking of passes: two decent ones in any possession and you'll have whatever shot you like.
The guys over at CanisHoopus were quibbling with Point #3 the last time I made it, but it's a pretty safe bet that having McCants and Foye and company hoisting over the top is a lot better bet than letting Jefferson and Love work inside. Last game we held them to a comparatively low 41.7% from the field and let them shoot a comparatively high 41.% from distance and won the game. Do it again. Long shots = long rebounds = running = rampant score escalation = Minnesota is done.
At this point I would simply like to welcome Dave to the Wonderful World of Randy Wittman. Let me dress up a comment I made over at Britt's place:
Plugging this theory into the last Portland game, if Kevin Love doesn't go 0-7 and if Mike Miller takes more than 8 shots, the Wolves win the game. They can play the exact same defensive game and with just a modest improvement on the offensive end, they win. The same can be said about games against Dallas, San Antonio, Golden State, and OKC. This team needs to play over-the-top more than it is. More 3's, more transition, and more shots from Mike Miller. It's not rocket science.
Cribbing a point of interest from Dave, here's the Wolves' keys to the game:
- Fire Randy Wittman and force Kevin McHale to coach this team to a .500 record in their remaining games or else face the axe. More than 16 three point attempts in the game.
- Mike Miller needs to shoot the ball more than 10 times.
- Randy Foye and Rashad McCants need to take their open shots.
- Mike Miller needs to spend his time on the court opposite Al Jefferson.
- Rotations, rotations, rotations. No more 11 players being played in the 1st quarter. No more yanking Kevin Love and Corey Brewer for the entire 4th quarter. No more subbing Craig Smith for Mr. Love when your team needs rebounds the most. No more Ryan Gomes at the 4. If this team is going to start Bassy, Brewer, Miller, Love, and Big Al, there is exactly 1 player in that lineup who isn't geared to play an up-tempo style. Granted, he's probably the best player out there but the other guys need to run a bit more. Surely a decent coach can find some balance here.
Other than that, this marks Greg Oden's first trip to Minny since his days at OSU. It's also part ii of our yearly 4-part reminder that Randy Foye was the not-so-delicious interior of a Brandon Roy/Rudy Gay draft sandwich and that the Blazers were able to land their big 7-footer by the grace of a coin flip with the star-crossed Wolves. While you may hear quite a bit about how good of a GM Kevin Prichard is (and he is), remember that the Blazers are the Blazers only because of another Kevin (McHale) and a coin flip. Otherwise, we Wolves fans are headed off to watch KG, Roy, and Oden go up against the young upstart Blazers, led by...well, perhaps Mr. Foye. Did I mention that it's a pain in the ass to have to be reminded of all this 4 times a year? As you can imagine, the term "Pritch Slapped" is especially nauseating in these parts. There's no such thing if the Wolves had a 1/2 way decent front office.
I don't mention this because of sour grapes (although, it probably does play some part), but rather to make a point about the weird nature of the NBA: a league where you need a good deal of luck + a good GM to make excellent things happen. A team like the Wolves only gets lucky so many times and it's up to the front office to capitalize on their very limited chances. From Foye to Roy to coin flips with Portland and Memphis, most Wolves fans don't like their chances even if this particular front office is dealt a winning hand.
Until later.
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I like your keys to the game
I think you’re absolutely right, but the sad part is that it sounds more like therapy than an actual game plan. The wolves aren’t making the shots they need to, and with pressure from Portland on the shooters, I don’t think they’ll be able to step up and win the game. Will they be able to fix their own flaws? We haven’t seen anything so far this season to prove otherwise. It’s frustrating to watch them pass up open looks, then offer up a prayer as the shot clock expires. Love should be jacking up those trick shots from the half court line… at least that would be more entertaining.
by homerspanky on Nov 15, 2008 10:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think...
….I can remember watching another team that passes up as many open looks as this one does. Foye and Miller are the main culprits.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 15, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No kidding
How many times did Foye drive baseline, instead of shooting from the corner, against GS? He passes up his biggest strength and opts for his biggest weakness (if he’s trying to make a good pass, that is). Let’s hope that changes.
Interesting game, tonight, for a lot of reasons. I hope Oden plays a lot of minutes. I’m anxious to see what type of impact he has on that team when he gets healthy (if that ever happens). Plus, if he and Aldridge combine for 85 rebounds, it might spark some FO debate about the need to play bigger lineups, and less 6’6" power forwards.
by Andy G on Nov 15, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I would love to see Foye just say “I’m getting mine” and go out and shoot the ball. Paradoxically, I think this is when his passing game is at its best, sometimes the best way to be unselfish is to be selfish. If only someone could put Chauncey Billups’s brain in his body…
by plinytheelder on Nov 15, 2008 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Telfair is a nice shooter.. :)
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by Coconut Pete on Nov 15, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Negative....
…Bassy has been an outstanding member of the team and community.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 15, 2008 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, I just like that picture
by Coconut Pete on Nov 15, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It is kind of funny...
….from an oh-my-God-that-sort-of-thing-really-gets-handed-out-at-gun-shows perspective. I hear what you’re saying. We’ve just had a few….shall we say questionable comments over the months about Bassy and guns and I wanted to remind everyone that the guy has been a great guy with the Wolves.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 16, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lets Get a Win Tonight Please
I Need Positivity after that Choke Job by Gophers Football today.
by Tony_O on Nov 15, 2008 6:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Low Class
Dude… Is there a point to putting up a picture of Oden dancing with a girl with the words “drunkathlete.com” written on it? Whoever is writing this blog seems like a classless A-hole.
Way to not analyze anything but quote Dave or use some old post that wasn’t good in the first place.
“They attempt the most shots/game in the league” then you contradict yourself by writing that they have a slow pace. “They also have a ridiculously slow pace for the type of ball they are playing.”
Then your “analysis” consisted of:
-The guys have got to make their shots.
-Miller has to stand on the opposite side of the court on offense (because…? Does it spread out the defense?)
-Rotations, rotations, rotations.
Get over your “sour grapes” and show some class. No one is rubbing anything in your face. I’ve never read a Blazer fan take a low blow at the Wolves but if it has happened they would be the exception.
Who is to say that Roy would have played well in the T-Wolves system or another trade wouldn’t have been made?
by jnb58 on Nov 16, 2008 4:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well, SnP can address the basketball arguments he's making...
… but the picture is widespread and had “drunkathlete.com” on it from, I would imagine, said website. There are plenty of embarrassing (or at least marginally embarrassing) Wolves pictures we’ve put up in the past.
Not sure if you read closely or just didn’t mention it, but the second long quote from SnP with all the stats and stuff is actually his original material, he just wanted to reiterate some points he made on another site.
I’m not sure we’re accusing anyone of rubbing anything in our face… except for maybe McHale or ourselves. This is, after all, the Midwest.
Lastly, while I obviously disagree with your criticisms, thanks for providing them. It’s always good to hear what people don’t like, even if their first point is that we’re “classless A-hole”s.
by wyn on Nov 16, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Get over yourself and stop being a clown
The Wolves turn it over the 2nd fewest times in the league with 11.4 per game. The league’s worst turnover team comes in at 17. Right away we’ve accounted for over 5 shots that they have over another team (with a quicker pace, no less: the Celts…who actually have attempted nearly 13 fewer FGAs/game than the Wolves). I’m sorry you don’t understand how a slow paced team that doesn’t turn the ball over (and who has played a few overtime games…as was noted) can still have a lot of shots, but…oh well.
I’m not sure what problem you have with us saying that the Wolves, who happen to be one of the worst shooting clubs in the league, need to shoot better (especially with players like Miller, Foye, and McCants) or that they to run out better rotations (of which we have provided several examples of here and in the past) in order to win. This is indeed “analysis”.
As for the rest of your nonsense, no one is accusing anyone of rubbing anything in our face, we’re not claiming this is mostly driven by sour grapes, and don’t forget to sit next to a fainting couch the next time you get the vapors over someone having the nerve to post a picture of a drunken college student.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 16, 2008 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Coin flips are funny that way.
If Portland had not lost a coin flip, they would have had Hakeem instead of Sam Bowie…
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
by Blazerholic on Nov 16, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The Wolves had another one...
…this year with Memphis. They swapped the 3rd and 5th picks and ended up pulling a trade for the players anyway.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 16, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We had a post about it earlier...
…but basically by the luck of a coin flip, the Wolves were able to move salary and get Mike Miller. Of course, the pro-Miller faction of the Wolves fan base would not view this as luck.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 16, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean "pro-Mayo"
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 16, 2008 8:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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