Cupcake!!!
Wolves fans, not only did last night's game see the triumphant return of Dwayne Casey to the frozen tundra, but Mavs fans were treated to a glimpse of the never-quite-realized potential of one Gerald Green.
For those of you who attended the game or watched it on local TV you missed out on the gushing praise and optimism concerning Cupcake exhibited by the Mavs TV crew on League Pass. At one point in the game the following words escaped the lips of the Mavs' color commentator: "Gerald Green is going to help this team." While Cupcake did have a nice night against his former team (+8, 9 points, 2 rebounds in 16:25) I hope that Mavs fans don't get too wrapped up in a player whose vertical will always eclipse his performance. As for the rest of the game:
Minnesota's big 3 of Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller had an amazingly bad game. They were a combined 12-50 from the floor while compiling a -10 +/- rating. Miller and Foye went for 1-7 from beyond the arc while doing very little else on the glass or defense to help their team win. Foye was particularly awful, constantly dribbling about without purpose and leaving his feet without having a clear idea as to whether he would pass or shoot. While he did manage to stop the presses with 2 left handed shots, the offense struggled when he ran the point and if a case were to be made against the worth of +/- stats, his performance last night would be Exhibit A. Unlike their first game, Kevin Ollie was unable to back up Foye's shortcomings at the lead guard.
Ryan Gomes also had a down night, struggling at the 4 against a Mavs lineup that was able to run out Brandon Bass, Eric Dampier, and Dirk Nowitzki against the undersized combo forward. On both ends of the court the Wolves were noticeably better with Kevin Love manning the PF position.
Speaking of Mr. Love, can we already proclaim that the Wolves' newest draft pick is their 2nd most talented player? While he is sure to have his rookie ups and downs, no other player on the squad outside of Big Al seems to have his feel for the game or his ability to generate positive numbers within the flow of the offense. If he continues to perform at this level he should be inserted into the starting lineup within the next 5-10 games.
Ultimately, the Wolves were done in last night by poor shooting. They got to the line more than the Mavs, made more free throws, grabbed more rebounds, and committed only 4 more turnovers than Dallas. However, all this work was for naught as they shot less than 40% from the field while going 1-12 from beyond the arc.
On the bright side of things, while watching this game I got the sense that the Wolves would have lost this contest by about 20 with last year's lineup. This year's team held in there until (almost) the very end. Their last gasp came when the ball was kicked out to a wide open Randy Foye at the 3 point line and instead of hoisting up an uncontested 3, he drove into the trees, had his shot blocked, and the Mavs converted a fast break dunk.
Random thoughts:
- Kevin Love did a pretty decent job defending Dirk.
- The Wolves' best 5 may be Rashad McCants, Brewer, Miller, Love, and Jefferson. Whether or not this rotation actually gets some burn remains up in the air. If Randy Foye can be a lead guard, so can Shaddy.
- While Al Jefferson is flush with nifty low post moves, sometimes he just needs to power it up to the rim.
- 15 assists/game isn't going to cut it.
- It will be nice to have Sebastian Telfair back in the lineup.
- Mario Chalmers: +4, 8 assists, 2 steals, and 6 points in 35:08 of action against the Bobcats. OJ Mayo: -10, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 16 points in 43:00 of action against the Bulls. This is the last you'll hear of both of these players until after game 10.
All-in-all it was a pretty frustrating game to watch. However, unlike last year's monstrosity, this year's club was in this game all the way and they were done in not by talent but by poor execution and questionable rotations. I know it doesn't sound optimistic, but this is a pretty solid development. The Wolves can now play with a team like the Mavs while having a pretty decent expectation of winning. They have increased their tempo and they have a 2nd unit that can keep things interesting. I know it is just 2 games into the season but I feel pretty confident in saying that the two biggest themes for the squad this year will be point guard play and coaching. Can Witt develop a solid set of rotations and can Randy Foye become a serviceable player at the lead guard? Other questions like "Can K--Love and Big Al coexist?" and "Can they play good enough defense?" will be secondary to the issues concerning Foye and Witt.
Here's hoping for a better result today against OKC.
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18 comments
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Comments
Encouraged
SNP,
Great post. I can’t wait to see Love start alongside Big Al. Missed the game, blacked out in CA on league pass. Foye did get 6 assists with only 1 turnover and 5 boards. He also was a +5 while Ollie was a -17. Obviously statistics can be deceiving, but it appears besides an awful shooting night, Foye contributed positively. The pick and roll with Foye and Al on the highlights looked great. Hope to see a lot more of that this season.
by DR_JPK on Nov 2, 2008 1:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
…I do think that Foye’s performance was a text book example of the problems with +/- ratings. I really, really like them but as anyone watching the game could see, Foye’s performance at the point was holding the team back and his positive numbers were the result of his teammates’ performance. Keep an eye on his adj +/- throughout the year as well as his on/off court numbers:
http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2008-2009&id=588
Right now, he’s already chalking up pretty significant negative on/off numbers.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 2, 2008 9:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on you game thread...
and from Neil Olstad’s match report I am listening to right now, the fly in the ointment is Randy Foye and his ability to run the point.
So if it was Coach SnP standing on the sideline, would Telfair be the guy to start at the 1 as soon as he is available (Spurs game if I cam not mistaken) or are we about to see a Kevin Ollie renaissance?
by Auswolf on Nov 2, 2008 4:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've said...
…since the end of last year that Bassy should be the starting point on this team and that he’s 3-4 % away on his shot from being nearly everything the team could want in a starting point. I’d go with Bassy, McCants, Miller, Love, and Jefferson. I think he’ll be starting by mid-December.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 2, 2008 9:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Adjusted +/-
is a fairly crap stat. It has a phenomenal MoE for anything less than 3/4 of a season (seriously, check out the standard error for the 2008-2009 season stats), and according to last season’s numbers Al Jefferson, Chris Paul, Danny Granger, and Amare Stoudemire are bad players. It seems to punish teams that have a faster pace, and dislikes good players on bad teams.
by McCleak on Nov 2, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't go so far...
…as saying it’s crap stat. It’s just another piece of the puzzle. It has some pretty solid value when looking at on/off numbers. Any stat this early in the season is going to be skewed. K-Love has a 35 PER 2 games in. Foye’s adj +/- numbers don’t mean anything yet but I pointed people to the on/off numbers on Basketball Value’s page, as well as telling them that they should keep an eye on +/- throughout the year.
This would be a pretty interesting idea for a post: how to balance different stats when doing player eval. Any ideas from you guys would be greatly appreciated.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 2, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Pretty
Was at the game
Mostly it was horrid shooting at the start, and a single minded focus on driving the ball by miller and foye that led to either a block/contested shot by one of the mavs bigs (what else can those guys do besides protect the rim) or a strip by kidd and a break the other way.
Some other observations:
1. Agree with SnP totally on Love. He’s now our second best player, and clearly the second best in the frontcourt. Gomes is a gamer, but playing him at the 4 just isn’t best for him. Somehow, Love has to get more minutes. PRobably means less for Brewer and Gomes.
2. Along those lines, McCants is establishing himself as the best backcourt player too. He was maddening a couple of times, carelessly dribbling into the middle of the lane and not worrying about who was coming from behind to pick his pocket, but they guy can actually get to the rim and finish, and he seems confident in his outside shot.
3. Jefferson settled for way too many jumpshots last night, particularly in the 1st half. Some were when the shot clock was running down, but some just seemed like he didn’t think he could take it to Dampier or Diop. We need to get him the ball in spots, but he also needs to stick to his bread and butter
4. The best and worst of CB last night — i thought he was the best of the starting 5 for the 1st 8 minutes — solid D, making the right pass, not forcing it, even looking confident nailing a jumper. Then in the second half, he does the 110mph thing. If he could just dial it back a bit, some of those layups will go in. I still think he did a good job on defense, and deserves his 24 mn a game.
5. No rhyme nor reason to the subs, and no imagination — not sure why, when the Mavs took a 20 late in the game, we didn’t sub in our defensive guys. And some of the “new” plays still seem foreign to the team. If it keeps taking them 15 seconds to get in their offense, AJ is going to have to hoist a lot of Js.
6. This team IS better than last year’s. More versatile, more talented and hopefully more confident. We’ll know more about Foye in the next 10 games — if he can settle in, this will be an interesting team. If we start seeing a lot of Telfair, Foye, Miller, Love, AJ lineups, maybe that isn’t the end of the world, but then we need to deal Shaddy or Foye (please let it be Foye). At that point, we’ll know if they’re completely redundant.
by Sterno on Nov 2, 2008 8:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well put.
The rotations were especially frustrating. Especially in the 2nd half. I also am in complete agreement on Shaddy. I know some folks get upset with me calling it the “Death Match” but the team needs to make a decision this year and move forward. Maybe I’ll rename it.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 2, 2008 9:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wow was it that bad?
I didn’t get to see it. Oh well thanks for the observations.
by plinytheelder on Nov 2, 2008 9:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The person posting this blog sounds (more) than a little bit po’d/frustrated/jealous (or all?) that the T-Wolves let Gerald Green go without realizing (or utilizing ) this kids potential. In pre-season games with the Mavs he posted numbers of 29 pts in 19 minutes of play and 17 pts in 16 minutes. In those games (as in last nights game) he did this in a variety of ways. Not just settling for dunks, but hitting jumpers, 3’s, and just taking it softly to the rim. He has a great arsenal of weapons and is also a solid defender having help limit Mike Miller to just 13 pts. Quite frankly I don’t blame you for being upset…after all Green did (in his first game of the regular season) help sparked a run by the Mavericks that utlimately won them the game. If I were a Wolves fan, I’d be po’d too.
by Cynthia56 on Nov 2, 2008 4:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
We'll see where you are on Cupcake in a month
Kudos to GG for having a decent game. He got more burn in meaningful minutes last night than he did in his entire year for the Wolves. That was because he had no grasp of team defensive or offensive concepts. Literally, he had no idea where he was supposed to be.
GG didn’t get any minutes against the rockets. Seems to me the only reason why he played is b/c the wolves fell behind.
You’ll see what we mean in about 5 games if he continues to get minutes in meaningful situations. Preseason doesn’t count. That’s known as “Gerald Green Time”.
by Sterno on Nov 2, 2008 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Come back at the end of the year...
…and we’ll see how good of a year he had. We’ll just have to wait and see. We Wolves fans saw some stretches of decent play last year from Green and he’ll have to do it for more than 2 games for us to come around to your position. I wish Gerald luck and am neither po’d, frustrated or jealous that he is gone. He’s been going on his potential for a couple of years now. Each new team that gets him thinks something is there. We’ll see.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 2, 2008 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hey hey hey hey
Glad you want to share your opinion but lol @ the po’d, frustrated and jealous thing.
by Wim (Belgium) on Nov 3, 2008 4:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Panic Time?
Not quite, but…. (seriously, it will probably take longer than anticipated for the Wolves with the new additions to learn to “trust” each other and for WIttman to settle on a rotation of players who will give the WOlves the best chance top win on game nights)
I’m looking forward to getting Bassy back and sticking him in the starting PG spot and sitting Foye down, if he doesn’t start playing better. I am starting to regret the Wolves trading the Chalmers pick too. The Starting lineup I’d like to see if things don’t turn around soon:
Bassy
Miller
Brewer
Love
Jefferson
Then let the DM begin btw Foye and McCants.
by Andy B on Nov 3, 2008 7:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
We should come up...
…with a better name for the DM. I feel bad about it. Foye does some great things off the court and he is by all accounts a gentleman. However, as far as personnel and sports entertainment go, his performance in those areas is what I want to keep the discussion about.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 3, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It might work...
…here in Minnesota where we’re hockey crazy. We’re known as the State of Hockey. It’s a very big sport here.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 4, 2008 6:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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