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Around SBN: Pacquiao vs Bradley: Potential Undercard Fighters

Detroit succumbs to zombie horde!!!

Zombie-horde_medium

What a game.  More to follow.  First, Mr. Stop-n-Pop has to set a floating mortar floor for a basement shower by way of strict orders from Mrs. Stop-n-Pop.  What we saw tonight was more winning zombie basketball: up tempo, keep it simple and true...and 53% shooting.  That last part always helps.  Until later.  

UPDATE: OK, now that the 2 x 4s have been anchored and the frame has been set, yours truly finally has some time to put down his thoughts on the game before he's tasked with actually filling the frame with concrete.

In their win against Philly I mentioned that perhaps the only point guard responsibilities that Randy Foye should have are the very basics: dumping it to Al Jefferson, bringing the ball up court, and starting off pick-and-rolls/ pick-and-pops.  Last night during 1/2 time, Wolves assistant coach Jerry Sichting mentioned something to the effect of the following: "We've pulled a T-Jack and shrunk the playbook."  Hallelujah.  It's enough to make you want to dance:


As long time readers of this site know, I'm a big fan of the Dribble-Drive Motion offense.  Without getting into the details of the system, the best part of DDM is that it teaches players how to play ball, not run plays (this is a bit over-simplified, but you get the picture).  In effect, with DDM you're not teaching to a specific test, but rather you allow your players the freedom and trust to handle any test.  I'm not saying they should swap out the offensive playbook; rather that they should adopt some of DDM's concepts into their repertoire.

As we have said many, many times before, the Wolves are who they are.  They are a small ball roster built for up tempo offensively-minded ball with short rotations.  They aren't a defensive juggernaut, they don't have a lot of above-average talent, and they don't have a real point guard.  Witt and Big Al can yell at Foye until they're blue in the face (and they often do) and it will not change the fact that he's simply not going to be effective running the sets they have attempted so far this year.  (As a side-note, with word that Kevin McHale may not have talked to UNC coach Roy Williams before drafting Rashad McCants, one really has to wonder if he has even a passing familiarity with Villanova's offense.)  There are no shot blockers or guys that can get their own a'la Kobe or Roy in the 4th on this roster; their power forwards are undersized and thick; their shooting guards are lacking on defense; their 3 point specialist doesn't like to take shots; and their only true point can't shoot the ball.  Remember folks, zombies only want to eat your brain.  They can't do anything else.  It's not in their nature so don't waste your time trying to civilize them. It won't happen.

Getting around to last night's game, it was even more of a blueprint for success than was the win in Philly.   Unlike Philly--where the Wolves escaped solely on the backs of 51% shooting while getting dominated on the offensive glass---last night's victory could have taken a few hits to the FG% and still walked away.  It was efficient, fast paced ball geared towards the strengths (and nature) of the players on the court.  They were playing ball, not running plays.  Let's end this with some bullet points:

  • Up tempo ball and Al Jefferson are not mutually exclusive.  Both Kevin Love and Jefferson can trail the play and hit mid-range jump shots. 
  • Will someone please explain to me why Jason Collins is taking Love's minutes?  10 of his minutes should be going to the rookie.  This is still about long term development. 
  • After the awful Boston loss, the Wolves had an awful -5.1 point differential.  After last night's 26 point victory, they have it back to a somewhat respectable -2.5.  Hopefully, we won't see too many more roller-coaster rides with the scoreboard between games and they can settle into an area as close to neutral as possible.  Remember, this year is about being as neutral as they can get while still holding on to as many draft picks as possible. 
  • Randy Foye had a fantastic night but it is important to remember that he's about as much of a 9-12 with 14 assist type of player as he is one who shoots 34% and only averages 3 apg.  If he settles into 43-44% from the field with 40% 3-point shooting and 6 apg, he will more than hold his own in the starting rotation.  It still would be nice to see the team get a big 2 guard who can be The Guy (what team doesn't want this?), but these would be fantastic numbers for a 3rd year combo guard who lost a year to injury. 
  • Foye plays his very best when he has a guard out there to share ball-handling responsibilities with.  Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, or Nick Calathes would fit this bill in this year's draft.  I don't mention Shaddy because I don't think he'll be back.  I don't mention Bassy because even though I'm a fan of small ball (and Bassy), that's a little too small...even for me. 
  • Speaking of Shaddy, he was off to a good game against Philly before he got injured.  Hopefully the new stripped-down approach will work for him...although I'm not too optimistic as I strongly suspect he's a take-a-mile-when-you-get-an-inch sort of guy with Witt.  Here's hoping for the best with the guy as I've always liked his game and talent.
  • Overlooked in Foye's big game was Mike Miller, who went 4-7 with 8 rebounds and 7 assists. 
  • Overlooked in Miller's overlooked game was Ryan Gomes, who went 9-11 with 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and zero turnovers.
  • Timberwolves Press had a pretty interesting nugget about everybody's least favorite TV pitchman, Don Overbeck.  It turns out Sweetwater Jones was too expensive for the club to shrink in the commercials.  Forget anything that has happened on the court this year, the fact that the Wolves can't afford the special effects in their commercials has to make Witt (with $5 mil remaining on his deal) feel pretty good about making it through his contract. 
  • Speaking of the hated Overbeck, here's the best comment from last night's game thread (plinytheelder writing about Mr. Overbeck): "He's a short bald guy somewhere between Les Nesman (sic)  and Herb Tarlick (sic), he’s on the Wolves’ commercials, he’s trying to be a kind of retro 70s sports reporter, yellow sport jackets and plaid pants, that kind of thing. Could be good if the guy was funny" Canis Hoopus: your Les Nessman and Herb Tarlek leader. 
  • Best comment from the Detroit Bad Boys game thread: “Did you know the Pistons payroll is only $2.3M more than Minnesota? I learned that just now on ESPN Trade Machine trying to trade anyone and everyone on our team for some of the key pieces on the Minnesota juggernaut.
  • The Wolves now have the league's 17th ranked defense, giving up 106.1 points/100 possessions.  They have the 22nd ranked offense, with 103.4 points/100 possessions. 

This was a good game for a lot of reasons.  First and foremost, the team finally started to play simple and to their strengths.  There's no sense in over thinking this thing.  Secondly, it showed that they're not nearly as bad as their 3-9 record would suggest.  I still think Randy Wittman has gotten in the way of a few of their losses, but they have left a lot on the table, mostly in terms of offense.  Here is a list of teams with greater negative point differentials than Our Beloved Puppies Zombies: Chicago, New Jersey, Memphis, Charlotte, Sacramento, DC, LAC, and OKC.  Of those teams, only New Jersey has a better combined OE/DE ranking than the Wolves.  In other words, they've underperformed just a tad.  They're better than a 43% shooting team.  Randy Foye is better than a 34% shooter who only gives the team 3-4 apg.  Mike Miller should be taking more than 7-8 shots/game.  Jason Collins is not a real starting center.  I'll repeat what I said before the Portland game:

The Wolves have the 25th worst eFG in the league. They attempt the most shots/game in the league (granted, they have played some overtime games).  That being said, if they shoot a baseline 45% from the floor, they make about 2 more buckets/game and we're talking about a 3-4 or 4-3 type team.

...

This team is losing these close games more because of offense than defense. They shouldn't be this bad from the floor. They have the personnel to make this work (and get turned around quickly) on the offensive end. Not so much on defense.  This team is a small ball team.  Yet, it has a coach who believes it to be a slow-em-down defensive-minded squad.  It's absurd.

Has the absurdity finally started to fade away?  Here's hoping last night's game was a trend and not an outlier.

Until later.

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Comments

Display:

Sure...

the one time I think it’s a 7:00 game…

by McCleak on Nov 23, 2008 8:04 PM CST reply actions  

hehe

me too, I missed the first half, but at least got to see 24 glorious minutes!

by plinytheelder on Nov 23, 2008 8:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Its Amazing What Happens

When you get Good Play From the Point Guard Position.

Congrats Wolves…Things only get brighter from here.

by Tony_O on Nov 23, 2008 8:42 PM CST reply actions  

Well, wadda you know.

by Wim (Belgium) on Nov 24, 2008 6:07 AM CST reply actions  

Was that the same team?

Was that the same Randy Foye? Ryan Gomes?

I’m not ready to call Randy Foye the answer. Nor will I anoit him the point guard of the future for the Wolves. But, this is the Randy Foye I was hoping for to start the season and the one I wanted on the day we traded Foye for Roy on draft day three years ago. I was one of the Dummies in favor of the trade and actually exchanging high fives with my friends.

What a difference it makes to have a guy who will take a bad shot and make him, to go with a guy who is waiting for a good shots and will make them too, while there is a guy on the block ready to make any shot that comes available to him. Throw in another guy making shots (Gomes) and another off the bench who will make some nice shots too (Smith) and the Wolves are suddenly a fun team to watch. Basketball, it really is as simple as making some shots. The wolves are a better team than there 2-9 start because they are a better shooting team than they began with. Granted, Randy Foye is not as good a shooter as he was last night over the whole season and neither is Ryan Gomes, but if they can have games like this every so often and also less games like they had at the target center against Boston, they really can be a decent team.

When Randy Foye is making his shots and he has good options on offense to get assists in Gomes, Miller, Jefferson and otheres, then this can be a good team and very fun to watch and he can be an effective starting point guard and I can feel a little vindicated for my foolhardy support of that draftday trade three years ago. And Corey Brewer, too. Even he was making shots.

by Andy B on Nov 24, 2008 7:23 AM CST reply actions  

This was a nice win...

…the one against Philly can be chalked up to ridiculous shooting, but this one was a bit more. They didn’t get blown up on the offensive glass like they did against Philly and they pretty much played Detroit even across everything but the free throw line…which they made up for in 3 point shooting. Offense, offense, offense. This team is not a 43% shooting team. This team is not a slow paced team. This team is a 45-46% shooting club that can push the ball and shoot 3s. They move the ball well and can hit the mid range jumper. I like how Foye just had to dump it off or run a pick and roll. That’s enough of a template where he can be aggressive and effective. He can get a lot of assists with simple plays to the post and with p-n-r/p-n-p to guys like Miller, Gomes, and Love.

Also, it’s nice to see that the rotation is winding down. I’d still like to see them scrap Collins’ minutes in favor of Love. Foye isn’t going to go 9-12 every game but he’s not a 0-9 or 2-12 kind of guy that he was earlier in the season. He’s still shooting 37% on the year. Even though I don’t think he’s the answer for this team at point, he’s not that bad of a shooter. He’s also playing much better d of late. If he can shoot between 42-45 from the floor while having a decent ppr and regaining his 40% 3 ball stroke, I think you can team him up with a fellow combo guard or a true point in the starting backcourt. He’s a good guard…just not a long term point. I’d still like to see them add height at the 2 and run him off the bench.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 24, 2008 7:45 AM CST up reply actions  

The Rotation

I wonder how much of the tightening of the rotation is because of McCants back injury. It reminds me of the MV3 year and Flip not having to play Wally and Thud splitting time with Cassell and Spree (not to mention Hoiberg and Hassell). Sometimes, injuries can be a blessing by forcing coaches to tighten the rotation. I’m hoping McCants cack doesn’t heal too soon, because if hes healthy he deserves minutes, but I’m not sure that that is in the best interests of the team.

by Andy B on Nov 24, 2008 7:53 AM CST up reply actions  

When he does come back...

…he’ll have to move the ball around a bit more. No more holding on to it for 5 seconds before deciding what to do with it.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 24, 2008 8:19 AM CST up reply actions  

McCants

SnP is right about McCants. We shouldn’t just jump the gun and say we don’t need McCants because of the Detroit game, considering he was exactly what we needed in the Boston game (someone that can create his own shot). He just needs to continue to pass it around or react quickly if he’s going to do something with the ball.

by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2008 9:37 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree

I was definitely wishing the Wolves had Shaddy as an option against Boston. That shorter rotation is just harder to use once he comes back. We’re at the logjam impasse again. Plus, I’m looking for ways to get Brewer more minutes, too. Shaddy’s injury makes him the odd man out. I don’t wish that on him or the WOlves, but it might still improve the Wolves just because some players get more consistent minutes. Same thing happened last year with Telfair when Foye got injured. It gave Telfair a chance to become a better player. Course, the Wolves were better once FOye got back, but then Telfair got hurt, too giving Foye more minutes.

by Andy B on Nov 24, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Playoff Odds

In Hollinger’s updated playoff odds, the Timberwolves are now the 10th most likely team in the West! We’re ahead of Golden State, Memphis, Sac, LAC, and OkSt.

Here’s the link…http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2008 10:15 AM CST reply actions  

I think they're better than all those teams...

…even thought they’ve lost a few games to them. This team is better than 3-9. They have some pretty solid players. Their OE/DE and point differential numbers…well, we’ll have to wait and see if they can stabilize them over a period of about 20 games before we make too many more judgments. I’m pretty sure Hollinger uses point differential as one of his main predictors of success.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 24, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Foye and McCants

As much as I would love to see Foye shoot 40% on 3’s, I’m not sure it’s in the cards. His overall FG% at Villanova was 40% and his 3pt% was 33, with best seasons of 42 (Jr.) and 35% (Sr.), respectively. I’m a little worried that his 41% on treys last year may have been an outlier; I think expecting him to hit 35-37% would be more reasonable.

The one thing I remember about the McCants draft was that sometime before the draft (I’m not sure how long before, maybe a month or so) the Wolves hired Rex Chapman. I seem to recall that he was some sort of Asst. GM, but the sparse info I could find on his Minnesota days say that he was alternately a scout, a head of scouting and/or part of the front office. I found it interesting that after hiring someone who, as a college player, was high-scoring SG with a great 3pt shot from a top name basketball school, the Wolves drafted a high-scoring SG with a great 3pt shot from a top name basketball school:

College #’s : Pts : Reb : Ast : FG% : 3pt% : FT%
Chapman : 17.6 : 2.6 : 3.6 : 47.5 : 40.0 : 77.1
McCants : 17.6 : 4.1 : 2.1 : 48.6 : 41.5 :72.1

Chapman endeded up having a solid but overrated career, mostly because he wasn’t that good a 3pt shooter (35% career); his PER was 13.9 and usually ranged from 12-15. McCants’ PER is currently 12.9; I’m a little more optimistic for him because he’s a better shooter, but I still think his ceiling is as a top notch sixth man, where his scoring and occasional rebounding and defense (when he feels like it) can shine, and his negatives don’t stand out as much if he were getting 30-35 minutes a night.

by SL9 on Nov 24, 2008 8:51 PM CST reply actions  

I'll try to dig up the post about this subject...

….but we ran a Foye in college vs. Foye in the pros post over at the old site (or maybe on a message board…I can’t remember). He was able to put up shooting numbers above and beyond his college days in his first season and in the last part of his 2nd (after the injury). It’s a pretty small sample size and he wasn’t starting the whole time but he was, for some reason, shooting a lot better in the pros than he was in college…especially from range. There were a few theories on the subject but I can’t remember them. I think one of them had to do with the fact that Villanova ran a 3 (sometimes 4) guard lineup and he was often trotted out there as a de facto forward…small or power.

Nice catch on the Chapman line vis-a-vis McCants.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 25, 2008 7:33 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah I wonder

if the senior season might in fact be the outlier of the bunch? Let’s not forget that, as S/P mentions, that Villanova team ran a 4-guard set, and with Nardi, Ray and Lowry on the court with him, Foye was the second biggest guy on the court – a kind of de facto power forward. In keeping with the discussion of Mike Miller and “bad shots,” that Villanova team was the bad shooting poster team – i.e. the only way they were going to win was to force the pace, get shots up early, and make sure – since Foye, Ray and Nardi were all excellent shooters – that a far greater pct of their shots were 3s than normal. I wouldn’t be surprised if Foye, who was probably guarded most often by guys several inches taller than him, had been under strict orders to jack up 3s whenever he saw an inch of daylight.

Man that was a fun team to watch.

by plinytheelder on Nov 25, 2008 9:42 AM CST up reply actions  

In continuation of the previous: “take-a-mile-when-you-get-an-inch”, as we don’t use your imperial system we use “take an arm when you get a finger” :p. In dutch: “een arm nemen wanneer je een vinger krijgt”.

Again I didn’t see the game on Foye: use him as a 6th man that you can pair with whoever is on the court, be it a true PG, another combo (best option, Curry really fits this bill, Livingston did too :( ) or, for shorter stints, a true SG.

I’m still not confident about Wittman, It’s nice to hear they sunk the playbook, but it should have been right from the start since this is his 2nd time through a full training camp.

by Wim (Belgium) on Nov 25, 2008 3:31 AM CST reply actions  

More bloody...

…I like it. :) It’s got an Inquisition feel to it.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 25, 2008 7:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Left 4 Dead is having some nasty side effects on people … really gotta install that demo soon ^^

by Wim (Belgium) on Nov 26, 2008 2:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Best co op game ever...

…it puts you in the middle of a zombie movie.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Nov 26, 2008 7:59 AM CST up reply actions  

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