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The Godfather Option

 

Capt

There are only three teams in the NBA that I just straight-up do not like: the Lakers, the Blazers, and the Nuggets.  LA stole our championships, the Blazers stole our luck, and the Nuggets...well, they just plain suck.  I hate the baby blue, I can't stand watery Colorado beer, Chris Andersen is a hockey goon in basketball shorts, their announcers are more homerish than Hanny and J-Pete, and I think the Melo/AI experiment was one of the dumber personnel moves in recent NBA memory.  That being said, last night's game was simply a pleasure to watch.  

The Wolves came out and built a big lead, Melo went nuts in the 3rd, and both teams played up and down in the 4th.  It didn't work out for the good guys but I can't remember a more entertaining 2nd game of a T-Wolves back-to-back.  We Wolves fans haven't seen a guy go off like Melo since Tony Parker.  And there's the rub.

I'll ask it again: Is this the team we thought we were getting at the beginning of the year or is it more of the same?  Did the Wolves just lose a game in much the same way they lost to San Antonio during Witt's tenure or have they changed (for the better) and simply run up against one of the great quarters in NBA history?  Let's take a look at the Four Factors of last night's game:

 

      Pace Eff eFG FT/FG OREB% TOr
MIN 95.0 110.5 46.6% 26.1 38.5 15.8
DEN 122.1 53.1% 37.0 31.7 11.6

As they have been doing for a while, the Wolves have been dominating the offensive glass.  Last night they won the offensive glass battle 15-13.  They were out OReb'd in the 3rd to the tune of 4-1 but all-in-all they are absolutely rocking the o-glass since Jason Collins has been retired to the end of the bench. 

The Wolves played an effective pace, maintained a solid OE rating, and got to the line a fair amount.  While the patient is certainly sick with only 4 wins, the internals are improving, and if the Wolves continue to play like they have in the last 2 contests, the wins will come (although, maybe not against San Antonio and the Lakers during the next two games).

They lost last night because they turned the ball over without forcing steals of their own, a big-time free throw differential, and an unconscious Carmelo Anthony. 

Changing gears, after having a few days to think about the recent coaching move I'd like to go back and highlight something I asked in my initial reaction to the change:

Moving forward, this team is still run by the Country Club.  Toronto Rob and Freddie Iowa are still there waiting in the wings to do what exactly?  Wait until the end of the year and bring in Sam Mitchell?  Go check out some Raptors' sites and see what their fans think of Smitch.  Let's imagine the unthinkable and think about what would happen if McHale turns out to be the business as a NBA coach?  What then?

What if the Wolves play .400 ball down the stretch?  If they played that well from the get-go we're talking about a 32-33 win club.  Is .360 ball enough?  That's a 31 win pace over 82 games.  How about .340?  That's still a big improvement over last year and it would be right in line with what historical averages suggest as an improvement for a team as bad as what the Wolves were last year.  Ultimately, this nasty little possibility raises some fairly uncomfortable questions for those fans who believe Papa Glen pulled a Godfather and placed a horse's head at the end of McHale's bed by moving him out of the front office.  The Godfather option depends on the Wolves achieving the worst possible options both on the court and in the front office.  In order for it to work, McHale has to be bad enough as coach that he will simply walk away at the end of the year.  More troublesome is the fact that it also means that the Wolves are so bad that they can't even win/improve in the style of play that they were built for.  Like it or not, McHale has these guys playing like we thought they would from the beginning of the year.  We all know he was a failure as a GM, but now the owner has a large chunk of his fans rooting for him to be a failure as a coach as well.  That's bad juju.  It's f-ing with basketball karma every bit as much as is trading Brandon Roy for cash.  Perhaps it's simply a solid reminder that the big problem with this team all along has been the owner.  A culture of boobery abounds at 600 First Avenue.

Personally, I'd love to see McHale put this team on track to .360-.400 ball.  That's in the range of a 32-win pace over 82 games and it would be pretty interesting to see a coach bring about the equivalent of a 10-game improvement with this squad.  If you think about it, this is the best possible outcome for the squad at this point.  They win about 21-22 more games, end the season at 26-56, likely keep their Clipper pick, and...well, I'm not going to give you the last conclusion.  I'd just challenge you to find another coach who can bring about a 10-win improvement pace.  And there, once again, is the rub.

For a Nugget-take on last night's festivities, please check out our sister site, Pickaxe and Roll.

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Comments

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If it makes you feel any better

Most Coloradoans hate watery beer (try some of our microbreweries, tons better) and pretty much everyone hates our announcers. And I don’t know if those of you with league pass last night got our announcers, but if so, my deepest apologies. Scott Hastings, while annoying, is at least tolerable. We’re not sure why he was out and you were stuck with Bill Hanzlik who is in the top 5 list of most annoying human beings ever. My apologies.

BTW, you guys have a nice foundation in place. Jefferson is an all-star and Foye appears to be putting it all together. Plus, anyone who’s talked basketball with me for the last year knows that I absolutely LOVE Kevin Love and think he’s going to be phenomenal.

The artist formerly known as Nuggets4.

by JLucas4092 on Dec 11, 2008 10:28 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks...

…I don’t really hate Colorado beer; I just couldn’t think of any more cheesy Colorado stereotypes ;)

Thanks for the comments. Jefferson is…well, he’s a fantastic scorer. He’s been thrown into the leadership role of a crappy team at 23 with no veteran guidance in the locker room. It will be interesting to see if he develops more or if he will simply be a shallow 20/10 who likes to yell at his teammates.

K-Love is probably already the 2nd best player on the team. My guess is that he’ll be the best all-around player sometime late this year or early next year. If I had to pick 1 player to start over with, it would be him.

Finally, as much as I hate losing to the Nuggs, it’s nice to see Chauncey play well again. Another T-Wolf that got a way.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 10:40 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry to break it to ya

But you weren’t beating the Pistons in 2004 either.

BothTeamsPlayedHard.net

by Both Teams Played Hard on Dec 11, 2008 10:32 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

guess we'll never know...

but one thing that is clear in hindsight is that that Pistons team was one of the weaker champions in recent memory. They won only one championship and did it against a Laker team that was basically an aging all-star team with no D. Hell, we took 2 games from them with our 2nd-best player injured and Derek Martin starting at the point.

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 10:47 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

nice post

I agree with your recommendation of patience. I just hope they don’t get so down on themselves after what will likely be at least 2 more losses that they turn on each other, stop playing with energy, etc. I don’t think it will happen but that would be the worst possible scenario. I like the comments about building a culture of success too, rather than just throwing in the towel. I want to see good basketball, fun, high energy basketball, not Madsen shooting 3s. I don’t care who the coach is as long as the team looks like it has a clue and is actually in the game, as has been the case the past 2 games.

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 10:55 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The biggest key is Love's progress...

because as Love plays better, McHale the GM looks better, and fans can simultaneously forgive him for past mistakes and enjoy him as a good basketball coach. I don’t necessarily agree that many fans are hoping we lose. Fans had no personal vendetta against Wittman, but wanted him fired because he couldn’t coach. Same with McHale the GM. McHale the coach is a new deal and there’s no reason to cheer against it, if you’re a fan of the team.

by Andy G on Dec 11, 2008 11:11 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd argue...

…that the cheering for failure is implicit in any fan viewpoint that thinks this is the move to rid the team of McHale. The guy clearly loves ball and he has been given an inordinate amount of leeway with Taylor thus far. I don’t know how that changes with him at the end of the bench and if it has, then Taylor is a masochistic cynic by setting his team up for double failure.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 11:23 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If fans would rather see McHale lose his job than see the Wolves win (is that what you’re saying?) then I don’t really consider them fans. The only reason people hate McHale is because his moves have prevented Wolves success. If McHale himself can help bring success as coach, then some twisted logic or personal vendettas are the only reasons to cheer against the team, while calling yourself a fan.

If you’re saying that fans don’t expect a real change until McHale’s office is cleaned out, then I guess that makes more sense, but I’m with Britt (and against Reusse) in that I think a real change has been made and more will be made in the off-season. We no longer have to worry about McHale being the head-man on Draft Night.

by Andy G on Dec 11, 2008 11:31 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed

i don’t think that just because one has had it with mchale the front office wizard, one has to assume from the outset that mchale the coach is necessarily a guaranteed bust. let’s hope he has some success — at the very least so that he can turn a marginally improved ballclub over to someone else that we’re excited about at season’s end. in a best case scenario, maybe we’ll discover that — as we have with everyone else — we’ve been misusing his real talents all along by having him play out of position upstairs.

by secretarykissinger on Dec 11, 2008 12:00 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then is it..

…just them spinning their wheels again? Maybe it’s unintended consequences. I just think a sizable portion of this fanbase views this as the only way Taylor can get him out the door and, to me, that’s corrosive. I don’t think that’s what is happening, but I think that’s how it’s being viewed by a lot of people…and I can see how they come to that conclusion.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 2:35 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reason I am openly rooting for the wolves to lose every game

is because as long as Mchale is still in this organization, he will be a decision maker.

Also it’s a near certainty that the wolves will do their normal routine of beating up on the teams that are tanking towards the end of the season and improve our record for god only knows what reason.

At this point Mchale will convince Glen of how good our players look and the great future they have and I’m willing to bet on this: reinsert him into the FO in some way.

THAT’S why we need the losses to start piling up and fast.

by roundhouse on Dec 11, 2008 6:10 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"the Blazers stole our luck"

—- with this you aren’t even shooting the messenger, you are shooting the recipient of the message! Keep shooting at McHale and start loving the Blazers!

OK, you don’t have to love them, I get that, but they are a fun team to watch – and just proved they can lose a game in the last .8 seconds as well as win one. (I was there for both. The win was more fun.)

I’m not going to go post your hate at Blazers Edge because some of our more unruly readers would come over here and behave in ways that would get them kicked out there, but I just wanted you to know that your comment did not slip by unnoticed. :-) It’s probably even a measure of our improvement to suddenly be hated. In the most recent past no one bothered to pay any attention at all.

Here’s hoping Santa will bring you a couple of early presents in wins against the L-k-rs (we’re don’t use the nasty word) and the Spurs. We’re one and one against them (games 1 and 2 of the season – beat the Spurs by only 1) and it won’t be easy, but its doable. Go Wolves!

Mama said there'd be days like this - and she was right. Get used to it.

by jorga on Dec 11, 2008 2:04 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jorga...

…thanks for your comments. I’m sure we have some Blazers fans here in the comments section. I think we’ve even had a few unruly fans over here before. I haven’t banned many IP addresses but I’m pretty sure one of them was a Blazer fan.

I don’t think I’ll ever be able to enjoy a Blazer game with Roy or Oden on the roster. Unless Foye turns into an upper-level player and the Wolves win a coin flip to land some sort of once-in-a-generation type talent at his position it’s just going to be a bunch of sour grapes on my part…admittedly so. ;)

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 3:41 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

one thing that worries me a bit

from last night is the D. The thing about Anthony’s “amazing” 3rd quarter is that the Wolves were right there with them at the end of it; they didn’t get down by double figures until very late if I remember right. And Denver, in my opinion, plays pretty dumb, with the exception of Billups. So I thought the Wolves had a chance at the win going into the 4th quarter. But there were a few real bonehead plays. The biggest culprit to my mind was Love – the guy just did not seem to want to get back on defence. This is strange – he’s the rookie, if anything he should be hustling more than the other guys. Foye also got lost on the left baseline once, which allowed Smith a clear path to the basket. It was Foye’s mistake, but the bigger concern is that no one came over to help – Love was the only one who made any effort, but he was way under the basket and all he could do was foul (I think it ended up being a 3 pt play). Smith is a typical Nugget in that you know when he touches the ball that it’s going up, so helping wouldn’t even have been so much of a gamble – it’s not like he’d find the open man anyways. (Sorry, I’m in a bit of a cynical mood today.)

I can’t remember other specific instances, but I remember thinking a few times that this team is just not using their heads on D. I know a lot of it can be chalked up to Denver just having an amazing shooting night – when Anthony Carter is knocking down 20 footers in crunchtime, sometimes you just have to shrug your shoulders and say “wha’ happened?” But I hope that, beyond just being loosey-goosey, McHale can actually teach some good team D.

…or maybe I’m overanalyzing: to be in the game virtually the whole time, the 2nd game of a back-to-back, after a redeye flight, against a pretty good team, with a new coach…bet Love hasn’t played in too many of those!

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 2:54 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

on the Smith drive...

Jim Pete was calling for an offensive foul. The homer moment of the season…

by Andy G on Dec 11, 2008 2:59 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lol

I did not notice that. Wow.

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 3:01 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was pretty bad...

…my homer moment of the year is when Hanny said something to this effect about Al Jefferson: “He stays out there on the court with dings and bruises that would send the rest of us to the training room.”

Al Jefferson…superman.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 3:31 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My two thoughts

I think the D in the second half had a lot to do with the second night of back-to-backs, tough/emotional loss the night before, playing at altitude. This game was going to be a tough one to win even if they hadn’t switched coaches two days ago. That being said, you would have liked them to make someone else beat them in the 3rd — even after he’d scored something like 20 in a row, Melo was still able to get wide open shots. That wasn’t good.

Hanny and Pete were just brutal last night. I had to turn off the sound. I find it particularly annoying when its obvious that the only people who are watching a 8pm start on channel 45 are hardcore wolves fans who don’t need the spin — we know our team is flawed, so don’t insult us by trying to convince us we’ve got a bunch of all-stars in waiting if McHale can just change the attitude. Pete shouting “where’s the foul?” after a play is ridiculous for any announcer. Where was the analysis of how we were letting Melo get so open? How about some comments on Telfair’s struggles with his shot? Instead we got a bunch of fluff about what a great game it was and how much the wolves fought, etc.

by Sterno on Dec 11, 2008 4:19 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Agreed...

…I’m going to post links to the opposing broadcasts from here on out. Although, Sean Elliot is coming up with the Spurs. He’s worse than Hanny and J-Pete combined.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 11, 2008 4:32 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AGREED completely

does it make me a bad person if i hope Jim Peterson breaks his jaw (but suffers no permanent damage) just so I don’t have to hear him for the rest of the season?

by roundhouse on Dec 11, 2008 6:15 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice point about the 2nd half...

I hadn’t even thought of this, but now that you mention it, their legs just weren’t there on D in the 2nd half as much as they had been in the first. It’s kind of ironic that Anthony had his big scoring quarter in the 3rd, since the guys we had defending him – Carney and Gomes (aside from Foye on a couple of weird occasions) – are two of the best defenders on the team. But especially in Gomes’s case, you can see how fatigue may have been a factor in not being able to be as stiff a man defender as he usually is.

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 6:38 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was like the gods were watching from on high....

And suddenly one was all like “Hey, the T-wolves are actually outplaying somebody surely the universe has been thrown out of balance.” So they used Carmelo Anthony as their divine instrument to restore cosmic order. Too bad.

by Laughing Stock on Dec 11, 2008 3:01 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Love vs. Mayo

With McHale as coach, I see Love getting more playing time and passing up Mayo on PER. I believe he will end up as a top 5 rookie (should be since he was drafted 5), perhaps 2nd in ROY to Rose. It’ll be fun to watch Foye and Love ascend the statistical rankings. In particular, I like checking Hollinger’s PER for rookies and PG. Foye has already risen about 10 spots at PG as his PER has gone from 10-12 in a couple of weeks. Just a tidbit to keep wolves diehards sane :)

by DR_JPK on Dec 11, 2008 5:13 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mayo is a 2-way player

Love’s physical inability to play good defense doesn’t show up in Hollingers rankings.

by roundhouse on Dec 11, 2008 6:17 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you give a sense of what you are basing this statement on?

It sounds like you are saying “defence = athleticism.” If you’re saying that Love will never challenge Camby for the shot-blocking title, I think most would agree with you. However, 2 things, at the very least, should be noted. 1. Mayo isn’t a hang in the air type guy either. It’s great that he works hard on D, but let’s not start comparing him to Kobe Bryant. 2. Have you seen how well Love a. plays mid-range man D, b. understands basic help D principles like rotations and positioning? It was actually beautiful to watch him play D on Milsap the other night: there were at least 2 occasions on which Milsap got the ball about 15-18 feet from the basket, found himself guarded by Love, and tried to drive…and found Love beating him to the spot every time. Love played picture perfect team man D, if that makes sense: he stayed between Milsap and the basket, all the while retreating. Milsap kept expecting the contact; it never came, and he suddenly found himself flailing toward the basket, out of control. I say “team man D” because when you play a guy on a drive like that, you’re setting things up perfectly for someone to help you and block the shot, go for a steal, play the passing lanes, etc. Basically he took a page from the book of Charles Oakley – another excellent defender, even though he was nowhere near as athletic as Love…

Anyways perhaps I misunderstand you, I’ll await your clarification.

by plinytheelder on Dec 11, 2008 6:33 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1. All I said is Mayo is a 2-way player, not Kobe. He is capable of being a lockdown perimeter defender though.

2. Love is too short, unathletic, and slow to ever be a great or even good defender. That’s all there is to it. It is clear to anyone that watches wolves games that he understands what to do probably better than anyone else on the wolves, it’s just a matter of being able to execute it.

Paul Milsap is an undersized, career backup PF who has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Love. Not exactly what I’m looking at when I talk about Love’s defense.

by roundhouse on Dec 12, 2008 4:35 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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