How low can they go?
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 9:48 AM CST
24 comments
First of all, how fun would it be to be a Cavs fan right now? To be able to watch an athlete as good as LeBron James each time your team takes the court...well, I now know what Vikings fans are talking about with Adrian Peterson. If there was a single game that was worth every penny of your ticket, last night's tilt was it. LBJ put on a show and it was a pleasure to watch.
At the other end of the spectrum, Our Beloved Zombies are one of the hardest teams to watch in all of sports. They are brutally bad and, in many ways, much worse than last year's 22 win squad.
| 2007 (rank) | 2008 (rank) | |
| SRS | -6.25 (25) | -7.41 (28) |
| OE | 103.8 (27) | 101.7 (28) |
| DE | 112.2 (27) | 110.1 (26) |
| Attendance | 25th | 27th |
| Points diff | -6.8 (30) | -7.8 (28) |
| eFG% | 45.4 (20) | 48.4 (29) |
| deFG% | 51.3 (26) | 51.4 (27) |
| TO | 15.7 (20) | 15.3 (13) |
| Oreb% | 27.5 (11) | 28 (8) |
As you can see, the team is much, much worse than last year in several key areas; namely OE, eFG%, and SRS (a stat that is an average of several key rankings). The point differential is going the wrong way in a hurry. In their last 5 games the Wolves are getting outscored by 14.6 ppg. They are shooting only .409% over that span while doling out a mere 16.8 apg.
What are the reasons for the current state of disarray? I think you can point to two main factors: awful offense and terrible back court play. Let's focus on the guards. Not only were Wolves fans treated to a historically brilliant player in King James, but they were also witness to one of the most inept back court rotations in recent NBA memory.
Plugging in starting point guard Randy Foye's numbers into Basketball Reference's full court machine, he is having a season comparable to the 93/94 campaign of Greg Graham, 99/00 Larry Hughes, 08/09 Acie Law, 69/70 Wayne Chapman, and 98/99 Kendall Gill. These are the top 5 seasons of guards who shot less than 40% from the field, <25% from 3, <5.5 apg, and < 15 ppg.
Moving over to Rashad McCants, Shaddy is currently the only guard in NBA history (with the minimum number of minutes required to qualify for the scoring title) to average less than 35% from the floor, 25.5% from 3, 1 apg, and 10 ppg. He is epically bad. If you extend these numbers to forwards and centers, only a 36 year old Jerome Kersey (98/99), Manute Bol (89/90), and Chuck Hayes (current season) can compete with Shaddy's ineptitude. Each and every single Wolves fan should quickly end any fantasy of Shaddy being traded for anything other than a toaster. He may be the single most ineffective regular in the NBA.
Current starting off-guard Mike Miller is complete disinterested in playing anything remotely approaching defense and he is averaging career or 5-year lows in FGA, 3P%, 3PA, and ppg. He doesn't have a good enough handle to get his own and he requires a labyrinth of screens to get his shot off on a team with zero threat of guard penetration.
Backup point Sebastian Telfair is in McHale's dog house after signing a contract extension in the off season. He is shooting .313% from the field. He boasts a current OE of 86 and a DE of 112. Contract extension or not, there's a reason why he's not playing this year.
Kevin Ollie is...well, I like Ollie. He's a 35 year old vet who is earning his paycheck. He is what he is and he's probably the best guard on the squad. This fact alone should condemn each and every single front office basketball operations employee to immediate termination. Yes, this includes the Triangle of Non-Accountability: Freddie Iowa, Toronto Ron, and Jesus Jim. Fire now, fire yesterday, fire tomorrow.
Watching last night's game, a few questions crossed my mind:
- Will Kevin McHale's coaching performance become so bad that he deserves to be fired?
- Will the Wolves go 0-for-December?
- Will they match last year's pace by only winning 4 games before the new year? How about 9 games before the end of January?
- Who is coming "to the rescue"? Last year fans could at least point to the return of Foye as some sort of light at the end of the tunnel. This year there is nothing.
- How can this team make any moves this year if McHale likely won't coach next season and if they likely need a new GM? Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal become much more valuable the second their 2-year contracts turn into expiring contracts. Miller + Cardinal + 2 (or 3) 1st round picks could be a valuable asset to make a sign and trade for a guy like Caron Butler or Tayshaun Prince. The team could theoretically make an immediate move for a guy like Gerald Wallace, but they could also wait for the off season to move on Trevor Ariza or Josh Childress. With no help on the way and with a sound approach suggesting they lay off on any moves until the off season, just how bad can things get this year?
Finally, last night's game was a perfect illustration of my love/hate relationship with J-Pete and Hanny. Actually, I can't stand Hanny; I'm talking more about J-Pete. J-Pete dropped eFG, OE/DE, and points/poss during last night's broadcast. He also waxed poetic about McHale's basketball genius and suggested that the Cavs are a quickly paced team. Hanny had some of his most embarrassing moments of the year and they all involved Wally Szczerbiak. Did you know that Wally sounded envious of current Wolves players because they get to be coached up by the Iron Ranger? Seriously. Those words actually escaped the lips of a fully functional human being last night.
Getting back to J-Pete, he is capable of some pretty fantastic insight. He is the first major commenter to suggest that the Wolves' current struggle is more of an offensive problem than a defensive one. He also is starting to work in commentary about the team's overall personnel deficiencies. Of course, the homerism is bubbling right below the surface and I guess I could live with it if it weren't so closely aligned with the team's official line. It's pretty annoying to read my Wolves Wire and then hear the same points being repeated on the TV broadcast. J-Pete seems like a smart guy with a lot of basketball insight. It would be nice if he could jettison the team's talking points and find a different way of expressing his fandom. You can be geeky about this team and even positive about the direction it is headed without being...well, without being Hanny.
That's about it. Until later.
UPDATE: Wyn had some good from-the-arena comments that deserve to be above the fold:
Fans started chanting "We Want Mad Dog" clap clap clap clap clap. Madsen was in street clothes.
Fans started chanting "Let’s Go Vikings" clap clap clap clap clap. Antoine Winfield (right?) had previously been put on the jumbotron and got some applause for making the Pro Bowl (right?)
LeBron James got a standing ovation when he sat in the 4th.
The Timberwolves ended the game to the sounds of a buzzer and boos.
The home team that played last night was actually the least popular athlete/group of athletes in the building.
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Couple observations from the Target Center last night
Fans started chanting “We Want Mad Dog” clap clap clap clap clap. Madsen was in street clothes.
Fans started chanting “Let’s Go Vikings” clap clap clap clap clap. Antoine Winfield (right?) had previously been put on the jumbotron and got some applause for making the Pro Bowl (right?)
LeBron James got a standing ovation when he sat in the 4th.
The Timberwolves ended the game to the sounds of a buzzer and boos.
The home team that played last night was actually the least popular athlete/group of athletes in the building.
by wyn on Dec 18, 2008 9:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ye gad
Wow. Some quick thoughts as I ponder how bad this team is:
This team has some similarities to the stock market: have we seen capitulation yet? Maybe. Panic: I don’t quite think so, which is a bit disturbing.
People can rip on AJ if they want — clearly, he doesn’t make players around him much better, and his defensive rotations are a joke about 40% of the time. But he’s out there with an identifiable skill and he uses that skill well.
What do the rest of the guys on this team do? Putting Gomes aside (hard to fault a guy who is your only decent team defender, especially when he has to chase LeBron around all night.), did the Wolves have a single guy on the floor who was above average at ANYTHING last night? OK, maybe Ollie deserves some props, but the fact that he’s even playing is a sign of how bad things are.
Interesting that the game really got out of hand when McHale subbed in Shaddy for Gomes while LeBron was still on the court. To me, the results from that point on were predictable.
Love is probably at a critical point — either he’s gong to figure out his offensive game and start knocking down some mid-range jumpers and some baby hooks in the lane, or it seems like to me he’s going to go in the tank and we’re going to get more nights like last night, where he’s invisible, except when he’s getting beaten down the court.
But what is truly remarkable is the trio of Miller, Foye and McCants (nice parallel to the FO, by the way). Those guys just stink. Unholy bad. I didn’t think it would be possible, but the trio are making me miss Jaric. I don’t miss his contract, or the nights where he can’t hit the side of the backboard, but he provided some perimeter defense and some savvy on occasion. Right now, this team has none of either.
On the plus side (I guess) Miller at least acted like he was a starting 2 guard last night. But between his missed 3s and Gomes’ missed 3s on back to back possesions, that was pretty much it for the Zombies. Hopefully his ankle is still on the mend, and he can make those shots and start to play a little D.
On the minus side, Delonte West got anything he wanted. Anytime. Right down the middle of the lane, with help D that was either too late or too unathletic to do anything about it. And with Brewer out, there’s no way to punish these guys for crappy D, as long as McHale wants to shorten his bench and not play Carney.
Offensively, I don’t think I’ve seen anything as bad as I’ve seen from Shaddy, ever. I don’t want to speculate, but somethings not right with him. About 25% of the shots he’s taking are terrible. The other 75% are ones he made fairly consistently last year. What gives?
And if Foye wants to be a leader on this team, he needs to show up consistently. Last 3 games? 7ppg and less than 4apg. FROM OUR STARTING PG.
What’s the modern record for fewest dunks in a season? Fewest fast break points in a season? This team NEVER gets dunks, and never gets out on the break (or when they do they screw it up). Meanwhile, the other team . . .
At this point, I don’t have any recommendations. Quality perimeter play is only going to come from this roster. I don’t think interior defense is available on the open market either. Thinking there’s outside help on the way is fool’s gold. The only way this team gets better is if Foye, Miller and Shaddy start making shots. Period. It doesn’t seem likely to me — we’re pushing 1/3 of the season. They are what they are.
Assuming no improvement, we’re going to chase OKC the worst record in the league. One of those teams seems to have a semblance of a young nucleus (Durant, Green, Westbrook). One of s has the Swarm.
by Sterno on Dec 18, 2008 10:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
well put..
….we’re stuck with hoping that they shoot better.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 12:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fans Need to Either Start Not Showing up
or Bring the Paper Bags!
by Tony_O on Dec 18, 2008 10:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It appears Felton might be going to Golden State
My question: Would you accept giving up Miller and Love for Felton and Wallace?
by PoorDick on Dec 18, 2008 11:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
No...
…not with Ariza and Childress available in free agency and the need for a new GM. The new GM needs to happen first.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd do that in a heartbeat
trade Love before everyone else figures out he’s a bust in the making
by roundhouse on Dec 18, 2008 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lebron Quote...
“You can never be prepared for something like that, being on the road,” James said. “It’s great. Great fans here. I really appreciate it.”
I feel like the hottest chick in class just asked to borrow my pen, and I’m convinced she wants to date me. WATCH OUT 2010 KNICKS, HERE WE COME!
by Blakeley on Dec 18, 2008 11:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
:)
nice
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Harlem Globetrotters were in town
When you are used to watching the Washington Generals, an appearance by the Globetrotters is appreciated.
by SBG on Dec 18, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or at least some..
…Sweet Georgia Brown on the PA:
http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2008/12/18/half-speed/
;)
Forget the warmups, they should have played it during the 4th.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That was a nice post btw
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
who cares about the wolves
Lebron loves us!!
by roundhouse on Dec 18, 2008 10:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Randy Foil
Long time reader, first time poster… Wanted to know what you thought of Randy Foye. He’s awful for a PG and wildly inconsistent and I think (like the rest of the team) has resigned himself to losing because it happens over 80% of the time. I’ve pretty much given up on Foye (especially when compared to Roy), buuuuttttt I also remember that it’s technically still his second season of development, considering he lost a large chunk of last year. I drafted Devin Harris late late late in bball fantasy and it’s been the best pick ever. It just seems like the light finally went on for Harris this year and he’s playing well and doing it consistently and this is YEAR 5 for him. And it’s not like he wasn’t getting playing time in Dallas although he did have Terry looking over his shoulder, which he doesn’t have in Jersey. I can see Foye doing the same thing, that one day the light will just go on and he’ll realize his potential, because there have been moments of brilliance for him. The sad thing is, it might take him going to another team to really have that transformation. Since this is the Wolves, I imagine this is what will happen. But hey, at least we’ll get an expiring contract and a 2nd round pick out of it…
by BDavige on Dec 18, 2008 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for reading and posting
I’ll say this about Harris: he’s 25 in his 5th year as a pro. Randy Foye is 25 in his 3rd year as a pro. Harris has always been an above average player with solid internal numbers and astounding quickness who is able to get his own shot while Foye has not.
You can compare the two here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harride01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/foyera01.html
I don’t know how long you have been reading but at our old site we had a series of posts called the Foye/Shaddy Death Match:
http://hoopus.withawhy.org/blogs/stopnpop/2008/04/02/preparing-death-match
http://hoopus.withawhy.org/blogs/stopnpop/2008/04/06/death-match-pt-ii
Basically, they boil down to a belief that Foye and Shaddy are duplicates of each other and before McCants’ mind went elsewhere (which it appears to have done), the team needs to pick one over the other as they both appear to be 6th men/3rd guards at best and you go with the younger, more NBA experienced, better shooting, larger player. Here’s a bit from the first post:
Whatever happens in the Wolves’ future, they will have to deal with having drafted two very similar 6’4" combo/tweener guards who both have issues playing either the point or the off guard. Should they have the opportunity to draft a player like Derrick Rose, their past draft mistakes will be compounded even further, as Rose clearly is the 2nd best player in the draft and could offer the Wolves a game-changing talent that would be hard to pass up on. Even without Rose, if they decide that Bassy is a legit back-up option at the 1, they are faced with a situation where the redundancy remains, especially with the large salary of Marko still on the books.
The main point of this comparison is to show that outside of Jefferson, no player on the Wolves’ roster should be considered a safe rebuilding option. Each player has their pros and cons and they are similar enough in production and overall value to make picking between one or the other a decision that should be taken seriously while, at the same time, not causing them to lose too much sleep over casting one of them aside in the greater rebuilding effort.
From a personal standpoint, I think the choice is obvious at this point: you go with Shaddy. He is the team’s only legit perimeter threat as well as the one player who can really create his own off the dribble. Yes, he has issues with working in the Wolves’ offense, but not only has he shown improvement over the course of the season, the Wolves’ offense may be part of the reason why he seems to slow things down when he goes into “get mine” mode. Both Foye and Shaddy are guards that would likely work better in a situation where a team ran a few less screens and 1/2 court point-to-point sets. Spacing and slashing would seem to benefit both of them more than what is being run at the moment and perhaps this is part of the problem.
Right now, I think they have to make the best out of Foye and hope that he’s not damaged goods like McCants is. I think Foye has the makings for a solid 6th man/3rd guard. However, we obviously don’t know what goes on behind the scenes and he could have played the leadership card to the tune where it can’t be walked back. I don’t know. A change of scenery for Foye could mean a front office/coaching overhaul.I hope this helps and thanks again for reading and posting.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
whoops...
…formatting issues. “The main point” to “from a personal standpoint” paragraphs should be included in quotations.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Great info, thanks
McCants is clearly on another planet right now, it seems like the both of them are becoming damaged goods. Miller’s damaged goods, and Love, what the hell is up with his jump shot? I mean, I live in LA and watched this guy destroy college last year and I think it’s a case where he’s being influenced by the overall badness of the situation. The games I’ve watched this year (all in the beginning), it just seems like an organization wide thing. And since Al Jeff and the former Celtics and Mccants and Foye are now all accustomed to losing, the first stroke of a challenge, they fall to pieces. Honestly? I think Stern should award Seattle and MN expansion teams. We should just sell all our players for money and start completely over. No more Twolves, just come up with a new name. It’s getting to the point where they’re losing the die hards and if Taylor doesn’t clean house after the season, you might as well dissolve the team anyway. The culture needs to change— example 1A of this should be Donnie Walsh and NYK.
by BDavige on Dec 18, 2008 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It really would be interesting...
..to have enough access to see just how bad things are behind closed doors with the culture over there.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or good...
…we don’t really know.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cavs Fan Here, Just want to say..
Yeah it sucks to have a bad team (been there, done that before LeBron) but things can change is a hurray in this league. Right now, nothing beats being a CAVs fan ( can’t get into what being a Browns fan means) Watching James is so much fun!
Gotta hand it to your fans for that applause last night. My 11 year old boy took notice of the gesture. Stay classy guys, your turn will come!
Oh The People You Meet When Your Out of Ammo.........
by Juannieboy on Dec 18, 2008 3:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
…I guess being a Cavs fan is like watching Adrian Peterson as a Vikes fan. ;)
Here’s hoping things change for the Wolves soon.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You deserve whatever good fortune that comes to you and your team
Wolves fans aren’t particularly enamored with the Celtics for obvious reasons, nor are we likely to side with the Lakers. So among the top three teams right now, that leaves your Cavs. Good luck!
by PoorDick on Dec 18, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
…they’re a blast to watch and I don’t want to see anymore NBA KG commercials.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 18, 2008 3:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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