Close but no brains
In yesterday's game thread we prescribed a very, very basic formula for winning zombie ball:
25 threes/game, a pace above 95, 25+ FTAs, and as few 3s from Bassy as possible.
In yesterday's game wrap we also added limiting opponents' offensive rebounds and shooting over 47% from the field.
Let's go through the list:
- 25 3s/game: negative, they only took 13
- 25+ FTA/game: check, they took 28
- As few 3s from Bassy as possible, check, he took 0.
- Limiting opponents' offensive rebounds: moderate check, they only had 8, 2 below Orlando's season average.
- Shooting 47% or better from the field: negative, they had an eFG of 45.9%
Here's how the Four Factors played out in last night's game:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| ORL | 92.0 | 128.3 | 61.3% | 25.0 | 24.2 | 14.1 |
| MIN | 102.2 | 45.9% | 18.8 | 30.6 | 12.0 |
No red. Orlando is a tough, tough team and Minny was on the 2nd night of a away/home B2B and they didn't play as poorly as one might have expected them to. There's really not much you can do about Orlando if Hedo and Lewis are hitting shots like they were in the 3rd and 4th quarter.
What this team could do is sit the hell down Kevin Ollie, Brian Cardinal, and the beyond worthless Mark Madsen. Last night this trio took 22 minutes away from Sebastian Telfair and Kevin Love. I like Kevin Ollie. He is a professionals professional and he plays hard for his paycheck. He's also a 36 year old point guard who was signed as an afterthought when Blake Ahearn and Pooh Jeter couldn't cut it. Brian Cardinal is still in the league because Jerry West enjoys a bit of spite, and his contract is theoretically valuable in the 09/10 season. Madsen may be my least favorite player in the history of the NBA; a towel-waving millionaire who is "loved" because of his awkward sub-par play. Who wouldn't hustle their ass off if they were given that much money to play so little? Not even overweight left-handed specialist relievers get that lucky. He should be as popular and as valued as Oklahoma's punter. Last night he made his first FG of the year. The season is nearly 30 games old. He was inserted into the game before the #5 pick in last year's draft. Say what you will about Love, but this is FUBAR'd whether you think he's going to be a bust or not.
Speaking of Mr. Love, my on-again/off-again love affair with J-Pete is off-again after he dropped the doozy of the year during last night's game. While discussing Love's reduced minutes, J-Pete actually said that the team was doing Love a favor by not playing him so that his 'wittle feelers wouldn't get hurt by his poor play, and he could learn by watching from the bench. Surprisingly, J-Pete didn't encourage potential ticket buyers to adopt a similar approach: staying at home until the team could actually field a competitive product. Why one and not the other? Note to J-Pete: this is a business and Love is an investment. There is zero pressure to win this year and fans want to see him play. No Madsen, no Cardinal. Fans don't want to see Love become the 1st #5 pick in NBA history to hit 11th man status so quickly. He's not a bust and he needs consistent minutes each and every single night. 25-28/night with plays run for him in the high post. I'm not comparing the two players, but I encourage everyone to watch the recent Lakers/Celtics game and watch how Pau Gasol was used down the stretch. He was set up in the high post and was a kick out option (as well as a driving/rebound threat) inside of the 3 point line. Now watch how Love is used on the Wolves. He sets screens on the wing and then posts up way the hell away from the bucket. Kevin McHale was probably one of the greatest (if not the greatest) low post scorers in NBA history. Kevin Love will never have that type of game. He's a high post, Euro-style, facing the bucket big in the NBA. No more post ups and get him some mid range jumpers from the free throw area. From the outside looking in, it appears that they're right back where they were with Witt at the head of the bench vis-a-vis Love.
Finally, at the very beginning of the game it was beyond apparent that Kevin Ollie and Craig Smith were massively over-matched by their Orlando counterparts. During their 1st stretch at the beginning of the game they went -15 and -13 respectively. These are the same two guys who had major issues against the Magic the last time around. Sooooooo...with guys like Love and Rodney Carney playing well in the 2nd quarter who do you think the Wolves trotted out for the beginning of the 2nd half? Craig Smith and Kevin Ollie; both of whom were promptly eaten and ended up with -23 and -21 in about 12 minutes of action apiece. The 17-2 run at the beginning of the game and the 16-1 run at the beginning of the 2nd half can be traced almost directly to the moment these two players entered and exited the game.
Well folks, that about does it for this wrap up. Next up is the match-up the Love haters have been waiting for: Memphis. The Wolves have a day off to prepare and they play at home. Here is what we would like to see against Memphis:
- 25 3PA
- 25+ FTA
- 25+ minutes and 0 3s from Bassy
- 25+ minutes and no post-ups from Love (we want mid-range jumpers from the line)
- 95+ pace
- A FG% above 47%
- Significantly limiting Memphis' offensive rebounds
- No Cardinal
- No Madsen
- No Ollie
I don't give a rat's ass about Mayo or how he does in this game. The win is what matters here against a division opponent. The Wolves are better than a 5 win club and they need to start playing to their (admittedly weak) strengths.
Until later.
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Notes from the game
My friend gave me some fantastic row G lower level seats, so I thought I’d drop a few notes from the game…
- I think putting in Madsen was the right call in the first quarter. The crowd was absolutely dead and the Wolves had zero energy to start that game. Mad Dog had some great energy plays and really got the crowd back in the game.
- Speaking of energy, That was probably the loudest crowd I’ve experienced at the Target Center in a long time. I’m not sure how it came across on TV, but the Wolves fans were definitely into the game. I can’t understate how great of an experience an energized basketball crowd can be. We even gave a standing ovation at the end of the second quarter, that NEVER happens.
- It should be stated that Mark Madsen’s first made field goal was actually a goaltending call on Howard. Who knows if it actually would have gone in.
- Howard seems like such a great guy. He was just casually walking around talking with random people in the crowd, joking with little kids, and dancing. In terms of his pre-game attitude he’s probably the anti-KG.
- You know how Lebron is getting standing ovations in New York and New Jersey as both teams try to lure him from Cleveland. Shouldn’t we start doing this with Hedo Tukoglu, Matt Bonner, and other 2nd/3rd tier free agents that we assume wouldn’t mind coming to Minnesota? I’d love to see this happen.
All in all, that was a great and entertaining game…BRING ON MAYO!
Excellent..
…thanks for the in-house take. You could tell the crowd was into it when the team went to the 1/2. When Love almost dropped in the full court shot you could tell that the place was about to go (relatively) nuts. Also, it was nice to see the bench get up for Foye and Love.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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"The win is what matters here against a division opponent. "
I hope that is sarcasm.
Since when do we need wins? I thought the goal right now is to play the young guys and let them develop/cohere and get a high pick that we can screw up in the draft next year.
I think what really matters is that wolves fans will get up close and personal and get to cheer on the rightful wolves rookie, OJ. And watch Mchale triple team OJ just so he doesn’t put up a good statline. Because if he plays good against us even the dense/naive wolves fans (a good portion of wolves fans) will be pissed off about the trade. But that wouldn’t really even matter if he played well against us, because Love still sucks anyways.
Wins matter against teams in the same boat...
….OKC and Memphis should be the games that matter most to these guys.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I really liked ..
the lineup of Telfair/McCants/Carney/Gomes/Love.
That tandem gave Orlando fits last night, include Foye and AJ in there too … those seven guys were real effective against the Magic (for the first three quarters at least).
On a side note, guessing from the comments, you guys regret not having O.J. Mayo around ..
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Not I...
…but there are quite a few like Roundhouse, Shogun, and Andy G who really don’t like the trade.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I don’t like the trade either myself, but .. to each his/her own. I understand the plusses for the trade … shed salary/get a shooter in Mike Miller/etc.
Just seems like with Sota’s recent history in the Draft, they could have used a guy like O.J. Mayo.
Maybe I’m wrong .. either way, it’s way too early to tell but the returns so far have been in Memphis’ favor.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
It will really depend...
…on how they deal with the draft picks and Miller/Cardinal. As far as 2009 and 2010 go, they have a significant amount coming off the books with some decent assets to move around. Mayo definitely is the better scorer and Love isn’t exactly lighting it up, but I think he’ll get it and will be very effective down the line.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
The thing that annoys me about Love
is he still seems like a giant question mark as to what he’ll be in a few years. You can find data to say he’ll be everything from the forward version of Brad Miller to a smarter Reggie Evans. That’s incredibly distracting when compared to Mayo’s hot start, even though I’m more and more convinced he’s the next Michael Redd.
I can see Love being a Brad Miller-type in the right offensive system .. he passes beautifully for a big man and he proved in college he can shoot a decent jumper to keep defenses honest. Love reminds me a lot of B. Miller ..
But even then, that still doesn’t compare to Mayo’s future.
I agree that the deal is dependent on how ‘Sota deals with the picks & Miller/Cardinal, but given McHale’s GM history, can’t say I’d be confident that he can somehow tip the Love/Mayo trade in the Wolves favor.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Brad Miller is 7-feet tall, though. That’s a big difference between he and Love.
We’d have to pull off a pretty shocking trade or FA signing to make the deal close to even. I don’t think it’s too early to call The Trade a major disaster of a decision.
Boy, I bet McHale is nervous for tonight…almost as nervous as Love.
I don't think so at all....
….Love is a year removed from high school, undersized, and has still shown the talent to be an upper-level rebounder. Give him a year or two with NBA trainers and a year or two to learn how to make the quick put-back and 15 foot jumper and he’ll be just fine. If the team can pull a sign-and-trade with Miller + Cardinal and max out a 2010 free agent while getting 2 solid picks in this year’s draft, I think that’s a coup for the Wolves. I think this is obviously what they are going to try and do. Hell, if they do it right, they can get one of the underrated 09 free agents like Ariza or Childress + a 2010 max deal. I still think it was the right deal to make. Getting out from under that year of Jaric’s deal + getting 2 2010 expiring contracts (including Miller’s VERY worthwhile deal) makes it a good trade no matter how good Mayo has looked out the gate.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I just don’t get excited at all about Childress or Ariza. The Wolves are completely starving for a star player and neither of them fits the bill. They are slightly better versions of Corey Brewer and Brewer improved enough from Year 1 to Year 2 to make me think they might not even be as good as him, long-term. It’ll take a much bigger splash than the 6th or so best player on LAL for me to start thinking that we’re getting better.
As for Love, I’ve already said all I can say about him. I agree that he’ll improve, but he looks like a guy who should be taken in the mid-to-late 1st Round, the way Hansbrough will next year. Undersized and slow is a bad combination, ya da ya da..
As for Mayo, I really need to see more of him (and will get a chance, tonight). The few times I’ve watched him, he’s hit a lot of tough jumpers and shown an above-average ability to create for teammates off the dribble. The only problem (which he shares with Jefferson) is that a lot of those teammates are poor shooters. OJ would’ve been a good guard next to Mike Miller. Given his high production and the way he’s carried what might be the youngest team in league history (at least youngest starting five, when they roll 3 rookies deep) to a respectable WL-record, it’s safe to say he’d really help our team. We don’t have a single guard that is above-average for a starter in the NBA. OJ is a borderline All-Star in his rookie year, after one college season.
Yes...
…but this is how you rebound from rock bottom. The Wolves aren’t just lacking in star power; they don’t have above average players. Ariza and Childress have the tools to be a solid SF on a team that needs defense and athleticism at that spot. No one is claiming that they are the answer by themselves. However, if the Wolves can land an upper echelon perimeter free agent with a sign and trade, and if they can get a guy like Ariza or Childress, and if they can get a real, honest-to-Pete point guard in this year’s draft, they have some nice foundation guys to fill out a roster. If they can land Rubio, Jennings, or Holiday in the draft, and if they can get a solid young 3 like Ariza or Childress, I think they throw everything they can at the Raptors for Bosh in a sign-and-trade. They need to get a point quickly. You can live with Foye at the 2 if he’s the 5th best starter.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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I agree with a lot of your points—I just don’t see enough in the trade to justify the difference in value between Mayo and Love—especially when you factor in Love’s similar position to Jefferson. We have poor backcourt play and Mayo—at a minimum—will be a good guard. (Hell, he clearly already is). At a maximum, he’ll be in five-plus All-Star games, which would’ve been really, really helpful.
I’m not saying that we can’t move forward from here. I’m just saying it’d be easier with OJ, than with Love and the improved cap-position.
Well obviously a AL/Love frontcourt is the future!
Where’s Love’s 35-inch vertical that Stack was raving about? Did they not watch tape on a single UCLA game?
Love is already one of the slowest players in the NBA at the old age of 20
He’s not going to suddenly get any faster or taller
Sure, B. Miller is 7-feet tall but they have similar skill sets. Clearly Love isn’t as tall but he has the tools to be a guy like B. Miller with proper development. That’s the only comparison I was giving.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Hollinger makes the same assessment about Love
Love basically projects as the new Brad Miller — despite his size he has an outstanding shooting range and will be deadly on the pick-and-pop; he’s a skilled finisher around the basket, and he’s an unbelievable outlet passer whose rebounding numbers should hold up fairly well as a pro.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Hah, yeah ..
I’m just copying and pasting what Hollinger said before the season began.
Surely Love can improve on that; I’m sure he’s just having trouble adjusting to the skillset of the big men in the NBA, where the majority of them can affect his shot in the paint.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
It's a fair comparison...
but it’s been frustrating to watch Love struggle so much, SOLELY because of his size and athleticism. His good offensive games have been, almost invariably, when he draws fouls. He has never looked like a polished offensive player, because he’s too small—I agree with roundhouse on this one. I hope Love improves, but I’m afraid that he’s really overmatched with the type of flaws that don’t get better—but actually worse—with age.
Frontcourt
This game could be won in the front court. If Al Shows finesse in the post (which he can use and should use straight away) Gasol wont be able to handle him. Gasol is “unathletic” like Jefferson and makes up for it with great strength. Kevin Love is better than any of the Grizzlies PFs. Darko is out, they will play Rudy at PF (good scorer bad defense) and Warrick off the bench (good scorer when they fall, bad defense). Darell Arthur has great athleticism and has similar strengths to Love but his confidence is VERY low (lower than love)- he can be a good rebounder but not Love good. But This game is over if OJ Mayo/Rudy Gay are on fire
Fascists would be proud of the propoganda/damage control that is being spewed on wolves live right now
They have been...
…especially homerish since McHale took over.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
There really is nothing in this world quite like hearing Jim Pete talk about
how great the Mayo/Love trade was for the wolves and how we lucked out because Mayo is undersized and doesn’t play great defense…

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