DON'T PANIC: Mayo is not better than Love
by McCleak on Dec 3, 2008 11:47 PM CST
43 comments
I have a feeling this is going to become a running feature...
Among the moans and cries of the flagellants, I've noted a certain theme arising: if only we had picked Brandon Roy or OJ Mayo or Danny Granger or, or, or... I find it interesting, since it is a way to track which players Wolves fan covet the most (personally, I'm waiting for the day people realize we could have had Al Thornton or Rodney Stuckey as well). And while this is currently brought about by the generally septic condition of our front office, it seems to require a certain tunnel vision to think like this. Did the Wolves make a mistake with Roy? Yes, but so did every other team picking ahead of them. And if you look at the top ten, the Wolves probably ended up with the third best player, which isn't bad for the sixth pick. Or look at the 2005 draft. The Wolves could definitely have used Granger, but so could have the Warriors (who picked Ike Diogu) or the Clippers (who picked Yaroslav Korolev). In the NBA, teams make draft mistakes all the time. And while it's upsetting for that to happen the Wolves, and it's disappointing that there's no public accountability, it's not the end of the world. This brings us to tonights featured point: OJ Mayo is currently being overrated, and (more importantly) Love is underrated.
Right now OJ is probably the second best rookie in the game right now. But beneath his numbers is one specific issues: He plays a lot of time. He currently playing 39 minutes a game, which is more than Al Jefferson and about 190% of Kevin Love's time. He also is involved with 23% of the possessions in Memphis, which is a phenomenal number. That's a number of touches your top-5 points guards see, not your rookie shooting guards. He's been given the keys to the offense (and with cause, since Rudy Gay is the only other scorer on the team, and Mayo's back ups are Buckner and Jaric). And while I've never been a big believer in the rookie wall (or the sophmore slump, or the junior jump...all players develop at their own pace, guys), I'm wondering what the future holds for Mayo. Right now, the most similar player at his age is Allen Iverson. And that's a bad thing for OJ Mayo. While Iverson came out of the gate amazingly hot back in the day, he never developed much beyond that. Not that I think he didn't try, I just think he was in full command of his abilities on day 1. And that could very well be the case for Mayo; a player that is borderline great as a rookie, and just as borderline great 10 years from now.
Now for Love. The big issue in comparing the two, as I said, is their touches. Here's a fun game: look at Love's per game numbers. Now double them. That is essentially what you'd be getting if he was getting the same minutes Mayo. That's a double double from a rookie, with a better AST/TO ratio than Mayo. Now this is all hypothetical, and ignores something like conditioning, which could very well be an issue for Love if you extended his minutes. But the simple fact is that Mayo has betters numbers because he gets the ball more often and is given a higher spot in the offensive pecking order. If you look at Memphis it becomes clear that it is as more of issue of Memphis' personnel problems than Mayo's abilities. And in a nutshell that is what drives the difference between these two to date.
UPDATE: Go the superlative http://www.basketball-reference.com and check out Kevin Love's PER to this point. Now go to Kevin Garnett's page and check his rookie year PER.
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Excellent post
I was just looking at the same stats, and planning on putting up something similar. But it wouldn’t have been as eloquent as yours. So we all benefit.
After reviewing past drafts I typically feel less bad about the Wolves’ picks. Yes, there are always 3 or 4 players picked after the Wolves’ choice was made who turned out to be borderline All Stars. But there were usually a dozen or more picked earlier who aren’t in the league any more, or never even made it.
Look around, folks. As bad as the Wolves are, as dysfunctional as the coaching and front office are, how many teams would you seriously trade places with, especially over the coming 3-4 years? Portland, Lakers, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, New Orleans, Utah—maybe the Knicks, depending on how the LeBronstakes go (I guess he’s going to be a free agent soon, from what I understand).
Other than that, every other team is either the Wolves of four years ago (heading into decline, with a batch of bad contracts), or in just as bad (or worse) shape as the Wolves.
We knew this was a throw-away year. So’s the next one. Some improvement both individually and as a team would be nice, but the season’s not one-fourth over yet. Wittman will either improve greatly, or be gone. McHale’s next. And then we hope the fortunes change. Until then, love Love, appreciate Big Al, and tolerate a few others.
by PoorDick on Dec 4, 2008 12:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how many of the shots oj mayo takes in memphis would get him benched by Wittman in Minnesota.
I also wonder how his shooting attempts and touches compare to Kevin Durant’s rookie year shooting attempts and touches.
I also wonder how much differently fame and fortune would be distributed across the league without somewhat flawed stats like ppg being emphasized so prominently. I realize some GMs actually do something compared to baseball’s moneyball, where they try to focus more on efficiency stats and the like. I imagine McHale and Hoiberg spend a lot of time keeping up with the evaluative value of stats taking into account time played, touches, and efg.
They must break down hours of film of prospects and opponents, writing down notes about good passes that lead to assists, poor shot selections, failures to make correct defensive rotations, well set picks, defensive capabilities in reducing the size of passing lanes, the average amount of time left on the shot clock when the player takes a shot disregarding shots after offensive rebounds and shots in transition, how many comas a player can use in a sentence, passes to the right player in the wrong spot making the player incapable of getting a shot off, and other valuable stats. Some of which might be called intangibles. They seem pretty tangible to me even if they’re somewhat difficult to catalogue. Although a few are fairly subjective, which would make less public stats and more stats for the use of gms.
Has anyone written a moneyball like book for basketball? I remember seeing a study a while back(sorry I don’t have a link to the source) that found the only stat significantly correlating with salary was average ppg. I was a bit embarassed for gms.
by oblivionspocket on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
There are a few good books...
….Basketball on Paper and Wages of Wins are the two that I’d recommend off the bat.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 8:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Basketball on Paper
is simply amazing. Anyone interested in basketball should read it.
Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/Basketball-Paper-Rules-Performance-Analysis/dp/1574886886/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228435812&sr=8-1
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve said it before, my thought exactly on the drafts.
Agree on the whole Mayo thing, well put.
by Wim (Belgium) on Dec 4, 2008 2:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wow, just wow....
I’ll bite my tongue on this one. You just can’t use PER stats to compare these 2 players. But even if you did I’d still pick Mayo every day of the week and twice on Tuesdays. Consistency, athleticism, ability to create, clutch, scoring. One guy has these traits, the other doesn’t. And we have virtually nobody on this team with those qualities. Love is ok, but IMO he is and will be the ultimate roll player. Mayo will always be a first option kind of player.
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 10:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
…I think that Love will prove to be the better player by a fair margain. They’re obviously apples and oranges but if you can get close to a double double out of Love with a 16-18 PER in his rookie year, I think the Wolves should feel very good about the trade.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
also...
on top of that I think OJ would have brought some juice (no pun inteded) to this organization. Increased interest and fan attendance. A little star power (not saying he’s a star yet). Everything would have fit. We would have had dual combo guards handling the 1/2 positions, our PF position didn’t need redundancies. I like K-Love and all, but a lineup of Foye/OJ/Brewer/Al/?? does more for me than Ollie/Foye/Miller/Love/Al. Just my opinion, I respect yours too. Time will tell…
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another one for you Snp, when we’re comparing different kinds of fruit we’re comparing apples and pears, not organes “appels en peren vergelijken”… although in some regions here the oranges are used as well “appelen en appelsienen vergelijken”.
by Wim (Belgium) on Dec 5, 2008 5:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome...
…I actually kind of like apples and pears better than apples and oranges. I think its the bigger difference in shape that makes it work.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 5, 2008 7:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PER exists
to compare players’ seasons. Garnett certainly played a different game than Love as a rookie, and no one thinks that Love is going to become an all-time top-10 PF, but the end result is very similar to date. As SnP says, if love puts up a near double double (say 9-8) and a 16-18 PER, he’s going to be looking at a very good, very long career.
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this debate is going to last for a long time, because they’re going to be different players. Roy and Foye are both combo guards who are expected to carry out the same role, essentially. So at this point it’s easy to say the Wolves screwed up. But this? Well, try to come up with some comps. I said I thought Mayo had a chance to be a Gilbert Arenas type, although Arenas is a much better slasher/creator (when healthy) at this point, and is even a better distributor/handler by a fair tick. So, Mayo’s got a ways to go to get to an Arenas level (whom I consider a psuedostar), but maybe he can get there. Love? Maybe Brad Miller with perhaps higher upside (he’s doing a fair Miller imitation already at age 20)? Wes Unseld? A Brad Miller/Al Horford hybrid? A shorter, less-annoying Vlade Divac? A squater, hopefully healthier Bill Walton?
So then you ask, which would you rather have? And people would/could argue both sides. So, I think this debate will go on for a while. Hell, if they both reach their ceilings it might never end. Personally, I think the Wolves got it right. But time will tell.
by jianfu on Dec 4, 2008 11:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I guess I see Love's
physical stature and ability limiting his ceiling more than most think. He’s 6-8 and will never be able to jump. He has difficulty finishing consistently and his jumper release is slow and kind of a low release point. Not one of those players that you mentioned have those limitations. Yes he is a good passer and rebounder. If he gets to be as good as Brad Miller did in his prime I will do cartwheels.
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll give you physique...
It’s my biggest concern about Love. I think his height isn’t a problem at the 4 (I think he’s at least 6’9"). He’s roughly the same height as Jefferson I think, eyeballing them standing next to one another on TV. Who knows? Size is always protean in the NBA. And I think his athleticism is underrated; he’s not Tyrus Thomas or anything, but I think it’s adequate. (And to be fair, Mayo isn’t considered an out-of-this-world speciman size-wise or athletically, as far as NBA 2-guards go). And Love’s strong as an ox, which helps. The guy was literally tearing rebounds away from Dwight Freakin’ Howard last night.
But physique…I think he’s going to have to keep an eye on his body. I think he genuinely loves the game to the point that I don’t think there’s a danger he’ll completely balloon-up a la Michael Sweetney or Shawn Kemp. But he’s going to have to keep an eye on it. (Although his father in his middle-age doesn’t look too chubby, so who knows?) But that is my primary concern with him: conditioning and weight.
by jianfu on Dec 4, 2008 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just put it...
…in the PANIC post, but my question is how does the non-athletic/too small talk not apply to Big Al? As for the weight….maybe he can get some starcaps from the Williams Wall.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I don't see it....
Love is slow of foot and can’t jump. Period. How could anyone consider him underrated athletically? Maybe I should have been more clear. I guess athleticism includes strength, jumping, and speed and quickness. I can’t think of one good player in the NBA who is strong like ox but slow and can’t jump like turtle….
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My response to this is you simply don’t dominate elite level NCAA competition at an elite conference as a true freshman like Love did, or post the good numbers he is now in the NBA, without having something going for you. Like I said, he’s not Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t think he’s a stiff, either. I think his quickness (he’s not fast but I think he is fairly quick in the half court), strength, and movement are all there. He’s not going to outrun people down the floor and put his elbow through the rim on dunks, but neither does Tim Duncan. Obviously I’m not comparing Love to Duncan (I could have used Brad Miller); just saying while nobody’s going to say Love’s athleticism is a strength (at the NBA level), I don’t think it’s bad enough to be a career crusher, either. He’s simply too good already. So I consider his athleticism adequate. I consider it “underrated” not in the sense that he’s a secret marvel, just that I think a lot of people think it’s bad enough to doom him, and I don’t think it is. (In fact, I’m thrilled that the biggest problem with his game thus far is his shots weren’t falling for a while, much of them of the wide-open variety, and you figure that will come around. I was mainly interested to see how his rebounding and his ability to get position/draw fouls would translate, and those have both been absolutely fine.)
And again, knocks on Love’s size or athleticism can be equally turned around on OJ Mayo. (Again, we’re talking about NBA players here for comparison. If Love and Mayo walked into my local YMCA pickup game, they’d seem like a virtual Shaq-and-Kobe-in-their-primes-on-steroids). At 6’4" or 6’5", he’s average at best in terms of height, and he simply can’t/hasn’t/won’t break defenses down with his dribble, and his defense hasn’t been quite as good as advertised (yet). Now, obviously OJ has something going for him, just like Love, because he’s succeeding, but I don’t ever see him carving people up or being considered an unstoppable force. The guy draws fouls at about a 7% clip, about the same as Randy Foye. If he continues to score, maybe he’ll get a couple of borderline calls and that will rise a little, but watching him, he just isn’t a slasher.
by jianfu on Dec 4, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
agree to disagree...
I guess… Maybe K-Love dominated because he was surrounded with superior talent in college. OJ did it with a bunch of average players. We’ll never be able to go back in time and put K-Love on USC last year but my bet his he wouldn’t have put up the type of numbers he did. That being said he did do well against some pretty good big guys last year in his conference. I haven’t watched a whole griz game yet this year, so i can’t speculate on OJ as far as if he is breaking guys down on the dribble that much, or if his so called lack of athleticism is hurting him in any particular area. However if a guy is shooting a decent percentage like he is, and is still scoring 22 ppg, I guess it doesn’t bother me that much that he doesn’t drive and slash as much as maybe some would like. Maybe it’s because he is limited physically, or maybe he can do it, but just knows he can score efficiently is ways that he is accustomed to. If that is the case then I’m sure that with coaching, he’ll develop that drive and slash game as his career progresses. I shall make a point of watching a griz game or 2. Did I just say that? Argh…. When do we play the griz nex?
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 3:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Love's Athleticism
Love was one of the most athletic of front court players, and certainly the headiest. Here’s the table of PFs from the draft:
Simply, Love is VERY underrated when it comes to athleticism.
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
one thing about those combine results is that, and I don’t know where I read this, he needs to gather to jump that high. So his jumping might be better just because of technique …
I think a lot of his athlethecism is connected to this conditioning. If he isn’t tired from playing games (like in the combine, pre-draft workouts) he has no trouble showing some athletecism but during the season, I think he needs to hold back just a bit because his conditioning keeps up. I think there’s a real good chance he’ll be an all-star in e few years.
by Wim (Belgium) on Dec 5, 2008 8:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Charles Barkley, Larry Bird - not strong though, Zach Randolph, Arvydas Sabonis,
there’s not a lot of them but some good ones come around now and then.
by raoulduke on Dec 20, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is the best thing that's been said in this "debate"...
…I for one think Love can become a real star in this league – one of those understated, Mike Bibby-type stars that does things without people really understanding how he does them, and that every team needs. But since I agree that it’s too early to tell (or maybe because I’m too lazy to go watch any OJ Mayo games), I move that we shelve the whole discussion until this time next year. Or at least June 2009 (after the Wolves’ deep playoff run). Love the “pseudostar” by the way. ;)
by plinytheelder on Dec 4, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Iverson never developed?!?!?!!
I was somewhat expected Mayo to attempt to have a season like Iverson had. Tons of shots on a bad team. Surprisingly Mayo has kept his shooting percentage fantastically high for a rookie guard playing that much.
"While Iverson came out of the gate amazingly hot back in the day, he never developed much beyond that. "
Allen had a 5+ year run with a relatively junky Sixers team where he was single handedly keeping them in contention deep into the playoffs. On top of that he was one of the biggest draws in the league because he was so fun to watch. If Mayo’s trajectory is Iverson I don’t think Memphis fans will bemoan that.
Usually adding playing time to a rookie will drastically cut his PER because he can’t be used in beneficial spots, teams figure him out and stamina. I think the big minutes Mayo has been playing are a testament to his talent not a detriment for the sake of comparison.
I’m not now saying this argument is over Mayo wins but he certainly has a solid lead right now.
by Pants_ on Dec 4, 2008 12:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Iverson
kept a bad Philly team in the running for 5+ years. But he didn’t get better in those years. That’s not a knock on Iverson’s game, but he came playing as good as he got. Check his year to year numbers.
And Mayo is than Love now, but I think it’s going to be a lot closer than people think by the end of the year. And I think this will be a non-issue (for Wolves fan) in 3 years time.
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree with Pants on this...
…I think this is one of those many cases where numbers don’t tell the story. I got to see Philly a lot in those years, and from the time Iverson came into the league to the time Philly made the finals, you saw a vastly improved player – smarter, more able to play within a team framework, more able to win, etc etc. Agreed on Love though, I think this will develop into a non-issue.
by plinytheelder on Dec 4, 2008 7:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Iverson may have changed his style for the better (I wasn’t watching basketball that closely back then) but the results he put were the same as when he was a rookie. It was more a difference in style than anything.
The thing is, I don’t care at all about style in sports. I just care about results. Kevin Love could be throwing up granny shots and only rebounds with one hand and his eyes closed, and as long as he was putting up the numbers he is at the age he is, I’d be find with it.
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on style...
…but I’d say the results changed pretty dramatically – they were an OK team when he came in, they went to the finals 5 years later.
by plinytheelder on Dec 4, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What I'm pinning my hopes on is...
that Mayo is much closer to hitting his ceiling than most 20 year olds.
There are guys like D. Wade or Kobe who just keep improving until they peak around 27-28. There are also guys like Stephon Marbury, Glen Robinson or perhaps Carmelo who get to a very good point with in a year or two but don’t quite have what it takes to lead a team. Usually players like that cannot accept the truth and it ends badly. Cheers to that fate Mr. Mayo.
by Pants_ on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
why
would you “hope” that? I hope the opposite. That will fuel the fire for firing McHale and maybe a new owner ;-)
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping McHale...
…is gone before we have resolution on Mayo/Love+Whatever we get for Miller
by Pants_ on Dec 4, 2008 1:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
same here...
but all of the crap that has happened over the years hasn’t hastened the process. it may be long and drawn out. and this should add to the blunders….
by wolfen on Dec 4, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't you wait until they draft...
…Cole Aldrich with the 1st pick? :)
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta have the local kid...
…maybe they can bring in Lane Kiffen before he flames out at Tennessee. I know it’s a different sport but I played against Lane way back at the Bloomington Education Center (the BEC for those of you from Bloomington) and he could pair with fellow Jaguar Aldrich on the bench.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
Nobody is allowed to make any more Cole Aldrich jokes. Makes me sweaty and short of breath.
by jianfu on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
please don’t share anything else that makes you sweaty and short of breath (please). :)
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
4 letter has its first draft watch up
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftWatch-081204
Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
There’s nothing sexy about Aldrich’s game. But he’s big, skilled and a better athlete than you might think. He has gotten better with every game he has played for Kansas. Given his size and skill set, he looks like a lock to be off the board in the first round, and he has a real shot at the lottery if he keeps improving throughout the season.
You all realize he’s coming here, right? ;)
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 4, 2008 8:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could doubt
but you nailed Love on draft night, sooooo…
by McCleak on Dec 4, 2008 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take him
If he falls to the Celtic’s pick I’d be ecstatic.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Dec 5, 2008 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that he'd be great as a late pick.
But I’m thinking they won’t wait that long to take him.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 5, 2008 7:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Iverson
Maybe I misread you but did you seriously say Iverson is “borderline great 10 years from now”!???! He may not have won a ring (yet) but he is still a former MVP and surely a 1st ballot HOFer. His inability to win a ring has very little to do with his skills “out of the gate”. He is a post season vet and has been to the NBA finals with little more than scrubs (unlike KG).
by WhaHuh on Dec 5, 2008 10:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Dunno what Love is, but OJ Mayo looks to me like Rookie of the Year and reminds me quite a little of a fellow named Kobe...
……………………………. Just a Blazer fan sounding off in dissent.
"Now with a non-provocative footer!"
by timbo on Dec 6, 2008 2:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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