Juiced
Before we get around to last night's game, let's get a few Love/Mayo things out of the way. First, count me in as one of the few people in town who still believes that the draft night trade with Memphis was a good deal for the Wolves. It certainly isn't the highway robbery I once labeled it as, but it still places the Wolves in a far better position to win than does the alternative; a view that is not often walked all the way through when pondering the differences between apples (Kevin Love) and oranges (you-know-who).
Were O.J. Mayo donning a single shade of blue up here in the frozen tundra the Wolves would still have Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, and the 09/10/11 free agent kililng contract of Marko Jaric. A lot is made of the 2010 free agent season but the fun really begins in this off-season as teams position themselves for open space under the cap. I encourage all of our readers to check out this 2010 primer as well as our very own salary page to see just how well this trade has positioned the Wolves for the 09/10 and 10/11 off-seasons. One of the most common arguments against the free agent aspect of the Love/Mayo trade is this: "No one will want to come up to Minnesota in free agency." This ignores the practical aspect of teams actually being able to come in far enough under the cap to be real players in the highly-anticipated market. It's not just that there will be teams doing whatever they can to land LeBron; it's that there will be teams doing whatever they can to try to clear space in order to land LeBron. The potential for sign-and-trades or flat-out max deals is really there for the Wolves. Jesus Jim Stack has referred to this practical reality a number of times. The bottom line for fans is that the Wolves are one of the few teams in the league that does not need to make drastic moves in order to be players in the 09/10 free-for-all. From teams that would like to be active (Charlotte) to those that are headed in the wrong direction (Toronto, Washington) to those that may be dramatically different a year from now (Utah), there are no shortage of options for the Wolves, and their freedom of flexibility rests largely on the outcome of the Love/Mayo trade.
Secondly, too much emphasis is put on Mayo the scorer instead of Mayo the player. The season isn't even 30 games old and we're dealing with 2 players a year removed from high school. Mayo is having a fantastic rookie campaign as a scorer. If, at the end of the year, Love is averaging near 25 mpg with close to a double-double, and a rebound rate comparable to what he has now, that will be no less a feat; especialy if Memphis and Minny end the season with similar records. Love is going to be a player. Eventually, he'll figure out how to put home the OReb bunnies and the Wolves will actually run some plays for him. The bottom line here is that elite rebounders are just as rare as elite scorers and, at this point in their careers, both players still have a lot of work to do to round out their games.
Finally, while Mayo and Love may have swapped places, the real comparison for Wolves fans should be Mayo and Foye. You can add this to Randy's list of comparable players. The reason why the Wolves thought they could make this trade work was because Foye was supposed to be a functional guard. He's certainly playing better of late but it's already looking like he may never become the player that Mayo already is and that's the rub with the Mayo deal. The fear of McFoyo was completely unfounded even if the Wolves didn't want to take three 6'4" combo guards in their last four drafts. Accountability-wise, McFoyo is another area where yours truly blew it with Mr. Mayo. He is a better player than both Rashad McCants and Foye--his true peers in this deal and the players by which such a trade was made possible.
Getting around to last night's game, it's not a contest the team should want to emulate. 1-15 from 3, 37 FTAs, and 8 point quarters aren't numbers you are going to see on a nightly basis. It was ugly, but it wasn't zombie ugly.
The Wolves won last night for a fairly simple reason: The Griz have no one to stop Al Jefferson. Nobody. They also can't rebound when it matters. They were out-boarded 29-17 in the 2nd half and overtime with only 5 Oreb compared to the Wolves' 9. Rebounding matters, especially getting and limiting Orebs. Last night the Griz collected .208 of their misses. The Wolves grabbed .275. I'm not assigning this victory to Love, but simply making a point; 3 offensive rebounds throughout a 90 possession game are worth a hell of a lot in a close game.
Let's end this with some bullet points:
- Minny's bench is quickly becoming a 3-point bombing squadron.
- It was nice to see Kevin McHale actually run some plays for Love down the stretch.
- It was nice to see Love get the ball in the high post and enter it across the lane to Big Al in the low post down the stretch.
- League Pass Broadband once again blacked out local audiences and the only way most out-state fans could have watched or listened to last night's game was to log on to illegal live streams. Good job NBA; where pushing paying customers into piracy happens.
That about does it for now. Here's hoping for another good effort against Dallas tonight.
Comments
I’ll try not to repeat all of the same things I keep saying about Mayo-Love, but it’s the first full game of OJ’s that I’ve seen, so it’s obviously a good time to talk about it.
- OJ’s better than I thought he was. I’ve tried to make comparisons, ranging from Sam Cassell to Ray Allen to Brandon Roy, but I’m not really sure what the best one is. He’s a phenomenal shooter, very good passer/playmaker, and promising defensive player. He was the best guard on the floor, last night, and it wasn’t close.
- Love had a nice game. It’s perfectly fine and probably true to say that he’ll be a good NBA player. It just doesn’t change the fact that he’s a terrible mix with Jefferson. Yes, they ran plays for him, last night, and yes, he scored on some of them. He also drew some fouls (which seem to be the only way he has good offensive performances, but that’s another point…) But, every time you run a play for Love, you’re not running a play for Jefferson. When they’re on the floor together, especially, you’re simply routing your offense through its second or third best option—and I don’t see the value in it. WIth our current group of players, our best offense is Al going one-on-one. Marc Gasol is not a bad defender and he (along with Arthur) got abused, last night. If a person watched the game without knowing the draft-trade significance, they would only talk about Jefferson’s performance.
- Pat Reusse wrote an excellent column, in today’s paper. I thought he was quick to bash Love after that preseason game, but to his credit, it’s proving to be a proper take. Say what you want about cap space and the next draft, and the next draft after that… the two best players, by a landslide, on the court last night were OJ Mayo and Al Jefferson. Unfortunately for Minnesota, they were playing on different teams.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 10:40 AM CST
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exactly
The best player on the floor last night was Al Jefferson and the best perimeter player was OJ Mayo. There is no good excuse as to why they are not both in the same locker room.
Love played a great game last night and this is not intended to diminish his value, but it is frustrating imo. He will always be a fine player in the league, he just isn’t a great fit for this team at this point in the franchise’s development.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on
Dec 30, 2008 1:35 PM CST
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I think a comparison that fits is a middle class Kobe
Same silky smooth shot and same type of game, but of course he does everything worse than Kobe.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 1:42 PM CST
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the only thing he has on Kobe is the understanding of team-ball at such a young age. Kobe didn’t fully appreciate this until his late 20’s.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 2:48 PM CST
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I wasn't...
…as impressed with Reusse’s column. I think the guy is an absolute hack. He made a point to single out McHale for making a mistake with Mayo’s age but his entire column rests on Mayo drawing fans to Memphis when they still have the worst attendance in the league. It’s a sleight of hand and it’s par for the course with that jackass.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:14 PM CST
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BTW:
I also don’t think the “if they’re running a play for Love, they’re not running one for Jefferson” argument flies. Other players need to touch the ball to make the thing work. For a football analogy it’s 8 men in the box for AP. You have to move the ball around; it’s not at the expense of your best player but for his benefit by opening things up.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:28 PM CST
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On Ruesse: As long as Mayo does what he’s doing and Love does what he’s doing, he has every right to make that column. He went out on that limb way earlier than other big writers were willing to, and he looks smart, so far. As for McHale not knowing Mayo’s age (if it’s a true story) that’s sad and unbelievable. For that amount of times I’ve seen this blog mention Shaddy’s relative youth to Foye (by 1 year—not 2) I’m surprised you didn’t also find it interesting.
On Love-Jefferson: I get that everybody touches the ball, but when Jefferson’s in the game, he should be posting up. If they run a play that involves someone else posting up, I’d hope that Dwight Howard or Greg Oden is guarding Jefferson—otherwise it’s not our best set. To go off your AP analogy, a nice backcourt scorer would be our Bernard Berrian to Jefferson’s Adrian Peterson. Love is our Chester Taylor. Only—we wouldn’t have ever used a franchise-changing draft pick on Chester.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 3:35 PM CST
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He just didn't go out on a limb...
….he wrote an idiotic column based on a single pre-season game. I don’t doubt that McHale didn’t do his homework on Mayo or Love. He’s never done it. It’s rumored that he didn’t even call Roy Williams when he drafted McCants. That’s not the point here. You’re mixing all sorts of things with that first paragraph. I don’t disagree with obvious points about McHale’s lack of prep or that Mayo is a fantastic rookie. Reusse wrote a 3 card monte column. He has every right to think and write about how good Mayo is (and he is good), but he instead chose to write a column about his fan appeal on the team with the worst attendance in the league. That’s some major league hacking. It’s lazy and indicative of the direction the Strib is headed.
As for the 2nd point, you can’t just run plays for Jefferson in the post. It can’t be done. He should attempt to post up on every play but you need to keep Foye and Love in the mix. To go back to the Vikings thing, Berrian is nice but so is a tight end like whatever the hell that guy’s name is. Someone who can work the middle of the field to open things up. That’s about the extent of my football knowledge but in b-ball Love at the high post can really open things up for Al Jefferson and if this team is going to build around these two guys in the frontcourt, they need to be playing together often and in the high/low post. That means Love gets plays run for him…just like the tight end gets a few plays thrown his way to open things up for AP.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:47 PM CST
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The column was only idiotic if you disagree with him. The first part dealt with fan attendance—and Minnesota’s has undoubtedly taken a hit because of the trade. If Memphis can’t support a team, it probably has to do with their economy more than their most recent draft day coup. The rest of the column dealt with the supposed reasons for not wanting Mayo and Reusse effectively rebutted them with direct quotes from OJ and other bits of evidence that are mounting against the wisdom of that decision. Since it’s starting to look like the least-logical decision in the history of this franchise that is filled with so many bad ones, I think it deserves more and more of these columns and I hope Patrick keeps them coming.
About the x & o’s stuff, I’ll just say that I’m not breaking any new ground by proposing that we build our team around a guard and a post. I can’t think of many past scenarios where rebuilding teams tried to build around a pair of bigs. Orlando had the ultimate chance in Webber-Shaq, and still passed it up for a guard-big combo (which quickly made the finals). The physical limitations of these two guys makes this idea even worse. Love could be a high post player, but last night’s success came when he was on the low-block. His jump-hook appears to be his go-to move, and it puts him on the spot where Jefferson should be standing.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 4:01 PM CST
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I think...
…I’m going to stick with calling a column that designates someone a bust after a pre-season game idiotic. I get what you’re saying about getting a good guard to pair with Jefferson. I’m not doubting that they need good guards. Hell, I’ve called the guards on this team the worst backcourt rotation in recent NBA memory. I just think they’ll have another opportunity for a player like Mayo and that this isn’t Roy pt. ii. Roy was the big one that got away. Granger was number two. This one is balanced out with additional assets and cap relief. That’s all.
Also, my beef with Reusse has nothing to do with disagreement and everything to do about method. I think you state the case for Mayo very nicely and I have always said so. Reusse, on the other hand, is a clown who instead of making the case for Mayo in ways that you (and others like Shogun) have made, he chose to rehash draft night, take a pot-shot at McHale, and claim that Mayo is drawing fans back to the team with the lowest attendance in the league.
I’m sure he will keep them coming as they probably don’t take all that long to write.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 4:57 PM CST
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Brandon Roy, Josh Howard and Danny Granger were terrible mistakes, in hindsight. With OJ Mayo, though, it was a position of dire need that we traded for the only position we didn’t need. Add to it Mayo’s consensus #3 pre-draft ranking and it was a really easy-to-question decision.
I was pretty ademate in my opposition to the trade, and I have to say that I both underestimated Mayo and overestimated Love. I thought Love would be a ROY candidate and Mayo would struggle to adjust for a while. So, even though I hated the trade when it was made, I think it’s proven to be worse than I even thought—especially when you factor in Mike Miller’s mediocre play.
If we end up pulling a Boston-like worst-to-first collection of trades, then it’ll all work out. You can’t blame a Wolves fan for doubting that will ever happen, though. Like Reusse, I would’ve been happy taking the simple route to success, and that was just using the third pick for the third best prospect at a position we needed help with.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 5:11 PM CST
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I'd disagree...
…about hindsight with 2 of those 3 players. I thought Granger and McCants were a push at the time. Roy and Howard were fantastic real-time mistakes. I also don’t think Mayo is a simple route to success. I don’t think Minny and Memphis will be that far apart at the end of the year and the Wolves have a lot of assets to make it work; more so than the Griz. I think this move (and Love) gets extra scrutiny because of past mistakes that have nothing to do with this particular trade.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 5:44 PM CST
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I can't believe anyone is defending Reusse
The guy slams Love after watching one game. He may be right, but he wrote it as if it was a fact and of course he only had one game to back it up. That isn’t journalism and that isn’t what a columnist who knows about basketball would write Instead, he clearly has an ax to grind with McHale and so he makes a “call” with barely any evidence to back it up. Most people would find that ridiculous, but I don’t think the Strib makes any bones that their sports columnists are actually journalists.
The strange thing about today’s column to me was the attendance angle. Why does the average fan care about that? Why not write about what a great inside-outside combo Mayo and AJ would be? (I don’t buy that, but obviously some people do). Why not write about how Mayo is already better than Foye and McCants? That’s the actual basketball angle, not some red herring about attendance when any Minnesota fan knows that what draws crowds in this town is winning, not a supposed “phenom”, unless he’s Shaq, which Mayo isn’t. Reusse may have been a good writer a few years ago, but I think he’s showing his age and most of his work is lazy. These two articles are cases in point.
And not to mix debates here, but the counterfactual history argument gets old. Arguing that we could have a team of “Granger, Roy, Thornton and Mayo” isn’t realistic. If we had wound up with any one of those first three guys (or Howard for that mater), our team would have been better, our record would have been better, and we wouldn’t have drafted as high we did in the subsequent years. Of course, the buffoons in the FO managed to screw ALL of them up (maybe not Thornton/Brewer), but any one of them would have nullified the others.
And I agree with SnP about the change of pace — you can’t run EVERY single play for one player - a) the defense will adjust, and b) that guy will get very, very tired. The point is to have options and then get it to your #1 option when the game is on the line. Love should be able to get some plays run for him AND be the complimentary piece when it’s AJ time. In theory. After 30 games, a coaching change, and "F" guard play, I think it’s a bit early to say the experiment is dead.
by Sterno on
Dec 30, 2008 6:20 PM CST
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McHale thought Mayo was 23!?!?! WTF fire this clown already
I generally don’t like Reusse because he’s not a very good journalist, but I thought it was a good article.
So what if he declared Love a bust in the preseason, he’s probably going to be proven correct. Many other media members said Love would bust even before the draft as well as many, many fans thinking the exact same thing.
And yes, I would go to games whether we are losing or not if we had Mayo. He is fun and exciting to watch. I’d rather stab my eyeballs out than watch our current team.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 8:46 PM CST
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Oh and I would gladly trade our roster for the Grizz's roster
Mayo and Gay alone, not even counting Gasol or the potential of Conley etc, is greater than Zach Rando….err I mean Al Jefferson.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 8:48 PM CST
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A Love-for-Mayo re-trade would make both teams better
The Grizzlies can’t rebound, but have a plethora of perimeter players who can score. The Wolves are the opposite. Maybe we can get Mayo back for Love if we’re willing to take Marco, too! (heh heh)
Srsly, this morning KFAN seared Mayo’s on-court attitude last night. The guy is an unreal shooter/scorer, but if the Wolves model is San Antonio, I believe Love is a player who would fit in better on the Spurs than Mayo would. So!
by PoorDick on
Dec 30, 2008 11:08 AM CST
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Mayo's attitude...
… was excellent. Before, during, and after the game, he said and did the right things. He talked about what a “good player” Kevin Love is, he said he was never against coming to Minnesota, and he said he’s happy in Memphis. Some of this could be cheap talk, but the guy knows how to be a professional. On the court, he never forced a shot until overtime, and he often made extra passes when he could’ve shot. So much for the theory that all of his scoring results from him being a “volume shooter.” On the floor, he’s like the anti-Shaddy. He’s efficient, makes few dumb mistakes, and sees the court. And when he makes a big three, which happens with more regularity than it does for Shaddy, Mayo didn’t hot dog it down the court waving three fingers on each hand like he’d just made a shot to win a game seven. I know we’re not comparing Mayo and Shaddy here—that would be an unfair comparison for Shaddy because they’re not even in the same stratosphere as players—but the point is that OJ acted like a consummate professional, all the way down to deferring to his teammates all game until it was “winning time,” when he stepped up and scored seven straight to send the game to OT. Never once did I see OJ do anything that suggested a bad attitude or a selfish game. I can also see why he’s shooting such a good percentage, because he passes on a lot of shots that he could take and waits for better ones. That’ kind of command is rare for a rookie and very impressive for a player at any stage of his career. OJ doesn’t have that “deer in the headlights” look like Foye does when he doesn’t know whether to shoot or pass. OJ’s command of the game of basketball is just so far ahead of any guard on our roster, it isn’t even funny. He’s got the smarts that good players on winning teams have, and I fully expect him to be a winner and not just another stat filler. He has a real chance of becoming a better player than Roy currently is.
Love played well, but I agree with Andy’s point, it doesn’t really do anything to solve the Love/Jefferson issue. I want him to succeed, but it’s just an ill-conceived match that McHale should’ve foreseen.
by Shogun on
Dec 30, 2008 11:28 AM CST
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Agreed
I gotta completely agree with Shogun here. There has been a stigma attached to Mayo ever since he arrived in college, but almost all of it has been completely unfounded. The only people that still believe it are people that haven’t taken the time to listen to the kid (cough-Paul Allen-cough).
by Blakeley on
Dec 30, 2008 11:33 AM CST
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Nice to see a rational take on this. Mayo is proving to be not only one of the better rookie players in recent memory, but also one of the better rookie professionals in recent memory. He’s got a rare combination of not backing down from the superstars and yet showing them all of the proper respect, at the same time. He put together a great performance against Kobe, a week or so ago, and never once looked like a punk or anything short of a class-act.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 11:40 AM CST
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Yep, it was Paul Allen
Watching the game on TV, I didn’t see anything to make me dislike Mayo. But Allen claimed Mayo was yelling at the bench in a manner that could be considered unprofessional.
The Grizz aren’t any closer to a championship than the Wolves are. And I although I agree with the “hey, don’t we already have a pretty good 4?” about trading for Love, there are plenty of people who are positively surprised by Mayo, and negatively so by Love (Hollinger, for example). And it is a third of the season. And I’ll be shocked if May retires as a Grizz (unless they move to Las Vegas). And let’s see what Miller brings. And let’s see if the Wolves use Marko’s contract absence to sign somebody in the next year or two.
That said, Mayo’s fun to watch on offense.
by PoorDick on
Dec 30, 2008 11:50 AM CST
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Agreed...
… I badly wanted to hate Mayo when he got to USC because I had heard all of the annoying things about his “self-recruitment” to USC, etc., etc. But when I looked closer and paid attention during the NCAA season and the run-up to the draft, I’ve been nothing but impressed with the kid. It doesn’t look like there are any lingering character issues with him apart from a borderline unhealthy desire to be a great NBA player and find a place among the past greats. This is the same kind of obsessive drive Kobe had when he entered the league, and it’s served him well. O.J. doesn’t have the same talent that the Kobes or Wades have, but that kind of obsessiveness about basketball usually translates into a very good career.
by Shogun on
Dec 30, 2008 11:51 AM CST
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Don't be too quick
to dub Mayo a stand up guy. We’ll see his true colors in a couple of years (for better or worse). The wrap on Mayo is that he is conniving and self-serving. If he turns out to be the best or worst of what people expect we wouldn’t have seen it yet. He is way too smart for that.
by Pants_ on
Dec 30, 2008 11:53 AM CST
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I didn't hear the PA bit..
…but I find it hard to believe that fans can gauge attitude from afar…especially when the opinion is generated in a single game with courtside seats.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:17 PM CST
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not the Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are much further behind in the rebuild process than they look. That is all to do with OJ Mayo. They have NO perimeter players that can score except for Rudy Gay, and he is in a slump. He is an odd mix of player similar to Melo and he leads he has one of the highest dunk/3 point attempt ratio in the league. Lowry and Conley cant shoot and their first off guard off the bench is Quinton Ross. This team NEEDS Darko to play and that says alot about their PF position. Love would improve their inside game but they would have a backcourt worse than the current Wolves.
by WhaHuh on
Dec 30, 2008 11:33 AM CST
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If our model is SA
all we need to do is get a Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker
LOL
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 1:43 PM CST
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Duncan was a stud from the get-go
But I don’t recall wild Hall of Fame projections for Ginobli and Parker before they made the show. Chicken and egg and all that, but I have to believe their system/culture is at least as crucial to their success as the talent, especially in the case of Manu and Mr. Longoria.
by PoorDick on
Dec 30, 2008 2:08 PM CST
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I don't think 30 games makes a career
Obviously we’ll never know what it would be like if Mayo was on this team, but just assuming he’d be putting up the same #s on a squad with a legit low-post scorer who tends to be a black hole and with two other combo guards to split minutes with, it seems pretty safe to assume that he would not be getting the minutes or the points he is with Memphis. Furthermore, I wonder how AJ would be getting along with a guy who averages more shots than Foye and at this point is a worse ball handler/passer (with an as/to ratio of about 1).
I’m certainly not going to argue that Mayo is in the same league as Foye or McCants. I agree with SnP that if anything has been proven in the 1st 30 games this season it’s that Foye is at best a 6th man and will never be an above average 1 or 2 in this league, and you traded away a franchise talent in Roy. Furthermore, the assumption that Foye could run the 1 and you could put Miller next to him has proven to be a joke.
Despite the points above, I still think this trade is a positive for the organization. I personally think the Wolves got a player with a high IQ who can score without needing a lot of touches/plays run for him and someone who, once he figures it out, is going to be able to hold his own with everyone but the biggest, most athletic bigs out there. Does it make them a better team this year? Maybe not much. But does it position them better in 2 years, which was the earliest we could hope this team could be competitive? There’s no way you can argue it doesn’t. Now if the FO screws it up, that’s another thing, but just having Mayo on the roster would not have changed that.
And while Mayo is putting up great #s for a rookie, to me, it’s pretty apparent that while he’ll be a very solid player, his ceiling is at best a 2nd option and probably more like a 3rd option. I don’t think he’s a brandon roy — he doesn’t have the handle or the passing ability — but he may be ray allen without the ability to get to the line as much. Remember, Ray Allen never really sniffed a championship until he was the 3rd option, and the only other time he got close, they had Glen Robinson (when he was a great scorer) and Cassell.
Also, as SnP pointed out, the wolves won despite having an 8pt quarter and shooting 1-15 from 3. The fact that they won the game says as much about the Grizz as a team as it does the Wolves. Sure they have 4 more wins than us. That speaks as much to SoS and the Wolves coaching disfunction as it does the relative quality of the teams. With a few winnable games coming up for OBZs and with a very tough stretch for the Grizz, the Wolves SHOULD have the same record as the Grizz around the middle of Jan and one team will be “hot” while the other will be “struggling”.
Bottom line to me, is that neither Love nor Mayo is Derrick Rose, so I’ll take the player plus the picks and the cap flexibility.
by Sterno on
Dec 30, 2008 11:19 AM CST
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“There’s no way you can argue it doesn’t.”
Yes, you sure can. If you have two great players, at complementary positions, you’re in better shape than with one great player and a bunch of average players. In two years, Mayo will be on the All-Star team. There’s a good chance he’ll be there with Al Jefferson. Who won’t be there? Kevin Love. Who else won’t be there? Whatever 19-20 year old rookie we take, next year. Teams with multiple All-Stars make the playoffs and contend for titles. Teams with one All-Star (unless it’s LeBron or Kobe) don’t make the playoffs.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 11:29 AM CST
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Its hard to argue for future All Star allocation, especially in the stacked west. If the Grizzlies are good OJ is maybe an all star. That is forgetting that Kobe will still start and Paul/Parker/Williams/Roy are still young. I think Al Jefferson would be a major reach this year when considering record.
by WhaHuh on
Dec 30, 2008 11:46 AM CST
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Nothing is certain and you’re right that the West competition is steep. I guess all I can say is that both Jefferson and Mayo will be All-Star caliber players in a couple years. If they get in, they get in. If not, they can be like Deron Williams last year and out-perform the guys who got in ahead of him. Either way, they will be elite players that could lead a team to the playoffs.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 11:49 AM CST
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IF Mayo's an all-star, you'll be right
But anointing him as an all-star is like anointing Love as a bust. It’s way too early on both counts. He’s scoring a lot on a bad team with one other legitimate offensive threat and no other guards that can score.
To be an all-star you need two things: to put up great numbers and to do it on a winning team. I don’t see Mayo putting up all-star #s on a winning team because I don’t think he’ll be more than a 2nd option on a good team or a 3rd option on a great team. Occasionally, a 2nd option makes the all-star team (see Wally), but with Roy, Williams, Paul, Kobe, Nash and Billups all in the WC for the forseeable future, I don’t think that Mayo is a lock to be an all-star. He’s not in the same league as any of those guys right now, and will have to dramatically improve the other facets of his game besides shooting (particularly is AS/TO) before he can be mentioned in the same breath.
Either way, I think it’s too early to say Love can’t play with Jefferson. It certainly worked last night in the 4th quarter and OT.
by Sterno on
Dec 30, 2008 12:10 PM CST
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Love-Jefferson really started to click when Marc Gasol fouled out. Before that, it took total offensive domination by Jefferson to counter the punches thrown by OJ.
Even though OJ’s numbers are ahead of the rookie numbers of most—if not all—recent greats, it’s not why I like his game so much. He constantly makes the right decisions, he has a great handle of the ball and court vision, and he buries jumpshots like a great pro should. He does a lot of the things that Love is supposed to do, only he has the physical tools to do them consistently and against tough competition. Like Love, he’s only going to get better. He’s just starting way, way, way further ahead of the curve then our newest power forward.
by Andy G on
Dec 30, 2008 12:16 PM CST
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Mayo is an A+ jumpshooter, no doubt about it. His scoring totals are exceptional for a rookie, but that is as much a result of a lot of minutes on a really bad team with no other scorers and no one to defer to as anything else. The rest of his #s on a per-minute basis really aren’t anything to write home about.
And while I agree his decision making LOOKS better than Foye’s, for example, if his handle, vision, and passing really were his strengths, he’d be putting up better a/TO #s than he is and he’d be getting to the rack/line a lot more and a lot less of his points would be coming on unassisted jumpshots.
by Sterno on
Dec 30, 2008 3:18 PM CST
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Watch him play, he is NOT a chucker
It’s funny that this is the argument people make.
Conley and Lowry can’t shoot ala Bassy, they handle all the distribution. Gay loves to drive to the hoop. The biggest hole that the Grizz needed to fill was outside shooting. Mayo is doing what is needed of him.
Mayo has more court vision, ball handling, and passing ability in his pinkie finger alone than Foye will ever have in his whole career.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 8:52 PM CST
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Bullets from the game
I had some pretty good seats to this game again, and here are some bullet points I remember.
- In spite of the fact that I’m still in the pro-Love camp, I came away VERY impressed with OJ Mayo after seeing him in person. One thing that struck me was that even though he took a lot of shots he never appeared to be a ball hog in the way that McCants always does. He has a quick enough release that many of his shots can still be considered fine shots even when he’s being guarded.
- Mayo played pretty good defense on our small guys (Ollie and Foye mostly), but I would have liked to see him match up against a bigger guard.
- Once again the most consistent crowd pleaser is the “Hoop Guy” that must be the son of one of our old assistant coaches. Their resemblance is uncanny.
- God I wish Kyle Lowry had been thrown into our draft day trade. I really like him, and I couldn’t get a good read on Mike Conley.
- The guy behind me tried to grab a flying T-shirt with his daughter on his shoulders. The look of death his wife gave him afterward was priceless.
by Blakeley on
Dec 30, 2008 11:28 AM CST
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Cap Space Question
Is the only real cap relief that we got from the trade one less year of Marko’s deal? I.e., ~7 million for one season? My understanding was that Miller’s and Walker’s deals were roughly similar and so were Collins’ and Buckner’s. So the kicker was that we got Cardinal’s bad two year deal instead of Marko’s bad three year deal. Is this right? Sorry for the amateurish question, but I’m not a savvy “Capologist.”
If this is true, isn’t the salary cap advantage we gain, in real terms, roughly the equivalent of being able to sign a mid-level free agent one year sooner? To me, that’s hardly grounds to claim that we got any big salary cap dividend. Personally, I’d take Mayo over Love + the inevitable mid-first round pick we’ll get for Miller + the ability to sign a mid-level free agent a year earlier. It still boils down to trading an all-star for an above average role player (Love), a probable role player (mid-first round pick) + 1 additional year of mid-level free agent activity (when we’ll still be bad and it won’t matter if we would’ve waited a year).
Again, this argument depends on your accepting that Mayo could help us a lot at a position of need and that it’s better to build a franchise around a core of star players instead of one star player and a collection of solid role players. I accept those assumptions, so I’m against the trade. If they can get better value for Miller than what I think they’ll end up getting, maybe I’ll be wrong. But Miller’s stock has fallen faster than AIG’s, and I don’t see teams giving up the farm (or even lotto picks) for Miller. The only teams that will want him will be playoff/championship caliber teams, and their first round picks will not be high and are not guaranteed to translate even into “sure thing” role players. I’m comfortable calling the trade a disaster.
by Shogun on
Dec 30, 2008 11:45 AM CST
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It could work in a few ways...
…first, don’t look at Miller as simply being an asset that will be moved for a pick. Boston doesn’t get Ray Allen without Wally being in a deal. Miller and Cardinal’s deals expire in 2010 and they are valuable in terms of teams with assets bottoming out a’la the Wolves in KG’s last year or with a team that wants to position itself for one of the big free agents. They are also valuable to package with guys like Brewer or Love for teams wanting to avoid cap holds on high pick young players and who are trying to save a few million in a big offer.
Miller + Cardinal is a lot of money off the books in the year that matters. I think they eventually get moved in a sign-and-trade when the Wolves attempt to pull a Boston and bring in 2 established players. I think that is the route they are going for. Of course, this is just a guess but Miller + Cardinal over Marko is a huge coup for the team being flexible in the next two off-seasons. Miller is a functional player to boot.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:24 PM CST
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More on Mayo
The player he seems to most resemble right now is Ray Allen. A very good player, but one who can’t win diddly as the foundation of a team. He’s not Kobe, or LeBron, and will never be. And he plays a position at which it’s easiest to find a replacement, once Shoddy’s gone and Foye starts coming off the bench.
After 26 games, Wages of Wins gave a slightly higher 08-09 wins projection to Love than Mayo (6.4 to 6.0). And yes, I would trade Love for Mayo even up in a heartbeat.
by PoorDick on
Dec 30, 2008 11:58 AM CST
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no kidding he's not Kobe or LeBron
If it is so easy to find a replacement at his position how come we haven’t been able to find one? If we had a Kobe or LeBron then having Love would be great and Mayo would be unnecessary. Mayo is a great perimeter player who would compliment our best player perfectly (not play the same position).
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on
Dec 30, 2008 1:49 PM CST
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Too true.
Except for the “great” part—he’s a very good rookie who has had an exceptional start playing for a very bad team—mostly through lights-out shooting. Hell, Shoddy’s numbers wouldn’t be drastically different if McCants were to play 37 minutes and have the offense running through him (I’m not saying Mayo is comparable to McCants, just that it’s easy to be deceived by numbers alone).
As to finding a replacement, you are forgetting who has done the drafting for the Wovles over the last ten years, how many first-rounders they’ve had, and if they’ve usually been drafting for development or “win now.” A reasonably-competent front office should be able to find a smallish scoring 2-guard in every draft.
I am more interested in the Wolves winning than I am watching a smooth scorer. Gilbert Arenas has been a phenomenal scorer, yet an abject failure in terms of pushing his team to a higher level. Love can’t legally drink for another 9 months, and big men are much slower to develop than 2-guards. Give it three years.
by PoorDick on
Dec 30, 2008 2:26 PM CST
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If it is so easy to find a replacement at his position how come we haven’t been able to find one?
Because the Wolves/McHale flat out can’t/don’t-know-how-to evaluate perimeter players. In the 1996 draft they made out ok, drafting Allen, then flipping him for Starbury, whom they then traded for a known commodity in Terrell Brandon. I guess Wally became a good contributor, but his game always had holes, and if you look at the other players that were available in that 1999 draft, Wally clearly wasn’t the correct pick. Outside of that, the history is littered with Headcase McCants and No-Skills Brewer. And of course, this organizational weakness hit a crescendo with the Roy-Foye thing.
I have serious doubts as to whether they have any sort of comprehensive approach at all to evaluating perimeter guys.
I just hope they get James Harden this draft. I like him better than Mayo.
I actually agree with a lot here in this thread. I’m in the camp that liked the deal. I think Mayo’s been quite good, but agree with the idea that he’s ideally suited to be a 2nd or 3rd banana. I don’t think we gave away another Brandon Roy, here. And I like Love, but have always been skeptical about the alchemy of a Jefferson-Love frontcourt. Indeed their sum already seems less than their parts. Again, we may have another death match on our hands, just with better players. I imagine the PF position will be the first opportunity the fresh new VP (wishful thinking) will have to make his/her mark on the franchise, as Jefferson and Love just seem like they would be best served playing in different systems/personnel shapes.
by jianfu on
Dec 30, 2008 3:37 PM CST
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Love's Confidence
Here’s something about Love that I can attest too as a former “guy on competitive basketball team that is afraid of f-ing up”. When Love’s confidence is down, he does NOT want the ball. You could see this during the second quarter of yesterday’s game. Love missed an early shot, and after he had a knack for holding his hand up in a way that made it look like he wanted the ball, but his hand still wasn’t out enough for a guard to actually get it to him.It also seemed blatantly clear that Love knew he was doing this, and really just didn’t want anyone to pass him the ball. This was a patented move I’d use when I didn’t want to be forced to do anything with the ball. Probably a big reason why someone with his talent can disappear in so many games.
by Blakeley on
Dec 30, 2008 1:29 PM CST
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Nice post
I think many of us have done this same thing. During one of the recent games I posted on Love putting his arm up but being VERY inactive trying to get the ball. Now that I think back I do not believe he truly wanted that entry pass. uggg.
by Pants_ on
Dec 30, 2008 2:39 PM CST
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I'm not going to say "no free agents will come here" because that's obviously not true.
But what is true:
1. The superstars (Lebron, DWade, Bosh, Amare, etc.) will not come here
2. The other free agents will follow the money, wherever that happens to be. But this requires the team to offer that money to them. This will not happen with the wolves. Glen Taylor is clearly in major penny pinching mode.
Exhibit
The lie that was Ratliff’s buyout last year
Selling Chalmers
The 76ers paid for all but $500,000 of Carney and Booth’s contracts. I told everyone that there was no way Booth would be bought out because he’s essentially filling a roster spot for $250,000. He still hasn’t been active for a single game or bought out.
Wolves asking the Bulls for plane tickets when they took one of our assistant coaches
The sense of desperation in their pathetic marketing ploys
All this talk about them setting up to make a push in the 2010 free agency is really just more about saving Glenny some dollars. Just wait and see, you’re sure to be dissappointed when we end up with Brad Miller on a 3 year contract for $3 million dollars a year as our big splash in 2010.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 1:58 PM CST
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So who do you want him to spend on right now?
Where should he be spending the money he’s pinching right now? I don’t buy that argument at all. Taylor has been an excellent owner in terms of opening his wallet when his GM asks. The problem has been with who the GM asked for (or who the star player asked for), not the owner’s willingness to spend money. They are pinching pennies now but where else should they be spending?
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on
Dec 30, 2008 3:26 PM CST
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It’s not that I want them to go out and get players just for the sake of doing it. Its the other things
1. They adamantly stated that they were excited about Ratliff to see how AL plays next to a defensive center. Instead they bought him out to save a mil
2. NO selling draft picks unless you can’t roster them all like next year when we potentially have 6 picks. What was the point of selling the Chalmers pick last year when we are one of the least talented teams in the league? Any young players we can get our hands on are a step in the right direction. The point was that Glen wanted the cash from the Heat. End of story.
3. For god’s sake get some marketing/advertising people in there that know what they’re doing
4. Actually give out dollar dogs on dollar dog nights. This applies to many little things the wolves pinch on that turns fans off to the team.
5. Pay the money to get an NBA caliber front office/coaching staff.
6. Most importantly, if you don’t want to spend money then so be it, Glen Taylor owns the team and he can do with it what he pleases. But it’s not fair to the fans to string them along with all their little lies. Most recently all this talk about how we’re going to make a big splash in 2010 free agency. That’s never going to happen. Stack was talking about signing two max level players for shit’s sake.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 9:14 PM CST
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Oh I almost forgot, why is Calvin Booth still on this team!!! because he’s a cheap roster filler
There are a plethora of D-leaguers and other youngs players that deserve a chance and could actually contribute to our sorry team. Pony up the freaking $440,000. Jeez. He’d still have $2.5 mil left over from selling Chalmers.
by roundhouse on
Dec 30, 2008 9:17 PM CST
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The Trade
The most frustrating thing about the Mayo-Love trade was that it was clear that the grizzlies had a plan. They wanted a bunch of young talented players to start over with a clean slate. Look at their starting five, all 23 or under. When I look at the wolves current roster, I just kind of have to wonder. What kind of team exactly were they trying to put together? We have a bunch mediocre outside shooting, no true center yet not enough speed to run with a smallish lineup, no upper tier athletes or star players, and no true distributor. I don’t expect Minnesota to ever be a consistent upper tier contender, but why does our team have to be so embarassing? Hopefully whoever follows in McHale’s footsteps will be able to do something with the mess that is our current lineup.
by Laughing Stock on
Dec 30, 2008 5:34 PM CST
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