Learning to Love Mr. Love
As long-time readers of this blog know, I am a seer-of-the-future and I have long maintained that Kevin McHale simply won't be able to lay off young Mr. Love in the upcoming NBA Draft.
As the running joke looks more and more like it has a chance to become a reality, I decided that it's high time to take a (more) serious look at Kevin Love and what he brings to the table should he end up in a Wolves uniform.
Let's begin by taking a look at the college stats of two freshman.
Player One:
- Age- 19
- Height- 6'9"
- Weight- 235
- Mpg- 31.5
- GP- 33
- eFG- 56%
- 3FG%- 37.9%
- reb%- 41.3%
- oreb%- 24.3%
- PPR- -6.72
- ORtg- 119.8
- %Poss- 33.5
- %Shots- 35.7
- FTrate- 48.4
- FTA/40- 10.7
- TORate- 15.
Player 2:
- Age- 19
- Height- 6'9"
- Weight- 255
- Mpg- 29.6
- GP- 39
- eFG- 59%
- 3FG%- 35.4%
- reb%- 36.7%
- oreb%- 28.9%
- PPR- -2.47
- ORtg- 126.6
- %Poss- 27.7
- %Shots-25.4
- FTrate-63.5
- FTA/40- 8.9
- TORate-14.9
Player 1 is Michael Beasley. Player 2 is Mr. Love. Both are tremendously young players with size that puts them in between legit NBA positions. Comparing their stats, there's not too many numbers that put one player, name removed, over the other.
Before looking at the numbers, my initial thought would be that if there were large differences between the two players, the difference would mostly speak in favor to Beasley's overall superiority. While there are some stats that do speak to this gap (Beasley shouldered the load on 1/3 of his team's possessions compared to Love's 1/4 load), Love did a number of things much better than the big fella from K-State.
First, Love's ORtg is off the charts good. While he doesn't have the raw numbers of Beasley, Love's eFG, FTRate, and TORate all speak to the fact that he was undeniably efficient with the ball when he got his hands on it. His OReb% is especially notable; by grabbing the amount of oreb he did (15.2% compared to 13.3 for Beasley), Love made the most of his time on the offensive end of the court on a level every bit as impressive as a guy who racked up a record amount of double-doubles for a freshman. As far as college performance goes, you'd be hard pressed to say that Beasley was in another league than Love.
The issue with these stats, and with their games in general, is how they will transfer to the NBA style of play. Unlike Love, Beasley moves around the court like a big cat; he's fluid, athletic, and can handle the ball like a guard with either hand. Love, on the other hand, is not nearly as fluid, and is not nearly the ball handler or dribble-drive threat that Beasley is. Love lacks Beasley's explosiveness, quickness, and all-around athleticism; instead, relying on his superior fundamentals and b-ball IQ to get his work done...and no, this isn't a stereotypical black/white thing; it's just how it is with these two players. Beasley is a smart player and Love is an athletic one; respectively, they're just not as much as the other.
Perhaps the greatest gauge of how Love will perform at the next level will be his official measurements. If he is only 6'8" with a modest wingspan and standing reach, he could be the most fundamental player in the world but it will not help him get his shot off in the NBA. While he had a phenomenal NCAA tourney, Love had his shot blocked a disturbing number of times (13). To be fair, Love blocked his fair share of shots during the tourney and he showed a defensive prowess that was above and beyond his regular season performance, but it is still troubling to see a guy of his size have that much trouble with getting his shot off.
Since the end of the college season, there have been numerous reports that Love has his weight under control and that he has increased his lateral speed as well as his overall athleticism. Still, spare tire or not, if he lacks legit size (and by size I mean wingspan and reach), this is a red flag that will be tough to overlook.
Getting beyond size and numbers, how would a player like Love fit in with a team like the Wolves? The biggest obstacle to his placement on the roster is that the Wolves' best player would seem to play the same position as Love. Can Al Jefferson coexist with Love? With no other changes to the roster, I would say that this would be a tough proposition. Presumably, Jefferson would stay at the 5 and Love would man the 4; leaving the remaining lineup as Foye, Jaric, and Gomes. Should the Wolves pull the trigger on Love, I believe there are two other types of players that they immediately need to bring on board to make the whole thing work:
- - A big wing player that can man the 2 or 3. To me, the ideal player to fit this role is Chris Douglas-Roberts. I have been calling for a CDR pick since early December. CDR was the best player on the 2nd best team in the nation; a fantastically efficient player who can dribble-drive as well as hit from outside and defend multiple wing positions. Other players to fit this bill would be Joe Alexander and Chase Budinger (in that order.)
- - An athletic center that can guard athletic 4s and 5s. Jefferson logged a lot of minutes at the center position last year. While he made it through the season with respectable numbers, the biggest problem he had was against athletic players like Amare Stoudemire or Tyson Chandler. If the Wolves could land a player like Jason Thompson or Devon Hardin--guys who could switch back and forth between the 4 and 5 with Jefferson--the team could absorb some duplicity between Love and Jefferson.
Putting the names with the positions, here's the lineup should such a fortuitous situation occur for Our Beloved Wolves:
- Foye/Jaric
- CDR/Brewer
- Love/Gomes
- Jefferson/Love/Richard
- Hardin/Jefferson/Richard
It's not ideal, but I think it would work. In fact, if the team would bring Love on board, they would absolutely need some flexibility at the 2/3 and 4/5.
Well, that's about all for now. I'll have more on this later.
UPDATE: One Kevin's love to another from Draft Express:
Reporter: Do you know Kevin McHale? Have you ever talked to him?
Kevin Love: I feel like I know him just from watching the old school tapes back in the day. All the up and unders, all the step backs and the hook throughs. I mean all of those guys, Bird, Parrish, Johnson and Danny Ainge; Landon Ainge played on my high school team. I watched all of those guys, but definitely Kevin McHale was my favorite growing up.
It's simply too perfect at this point for the joke not to work itself out: Love to the Wolves at 3 with no trade-downs or maneuvers. Oh, and the interview gets even better:
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2 comments
Comments
Outstanding post....
I think you’ve pretty much nailed the situation, and I agree it will all come down to Love’s measurements. If he’s comfortably close to 6’10”, then I wouldn’t mind taking him. (You might be vulnerable defensively up front, but OTOH a Jefferson-Love combo could really be a handful to handle on the other side of the ball.) If he’s lower than that, it’s probably just not meant to be. Or, maybe he’s not done growing. Dude’s only 19.
Love just strikes me as one of those ultra-skilled players who seem to slip further in the draft than they should because they “play below the rim” (kinda sorta like a front court version of Brandon Roy). And considering there aren’t exactly a lot of other sure things out there at the Wolves’ portion of the draft, I think he’d be a worthy pick (with my noted caveat on his size).
Or he could be Mike Sweetney. John Hollinger’s system, for instance, pegged Sweetney as an outstanding prospect coming out of school, but scouts were concerned about his position and conditioning. And while Sweetney did post some real promising numbers initially, the bulge took over and ruined his career. Who knows?
CDR would be a good pick to combine with Love; I’m a little concerned about his strength and overall athleticism. Although frankly, if you have a Jefferson-Love frontcourt (and Love’s a good passer), the M.O. would then be to just find guys who offer the best combination of perimeter defense and shooting (who also preferrably can move and handle the ball, but you can’t have it all). CDR could possibly fit that scheme. I’ll throw my man Mario Chalmers’ name in the ring again. But nobody knows what’s going to happen vis a vis these wing players projected mid-to-late first round. We’ll have to wait and see.
Finally, trading down, I’m back and fourth, and frankly I’m at a loss, mainly because I think this is going to be an extremely unpredictably draft. There’s simply no consensus after Rose and Beasley (and maybe even after Rose), and most of the projected lottery picks have legitimate concerns. Add it all up and we have very little idea what teams are thinking.
So let’s say Love is your guy. How confident are you that he’ll be there when you move down, given how unpredictable draft night might be? No doubt the Sonics-who have a F.O. with an analytical bent-have picked up on a lot of the same evidence the eggheads have suggesting Love might be worthy of the #2 pick. Why wouldn’t they consider him? Or why not Memphis, particularly if Lopez continues to unimpress in workouts?
I also expect a lot of trades will take place, so even if you think you’re being smart because you think you have the skinny on teams in front of you, nothing’s stopping a team swooping in and ruining your plans. (This happened in 2006 to the Wolves. Regardless of what one thinks of the reasoning behind the Roy-Foye swap, the execution was botched, too. IIRC, the plan was to trade Roy to the Rockets for Foye and Luther Head. Portland caught wind of it (McHale doesn’t exactly have a great poker face), and had Boston take Foye 7th, and flipped Telfair for him, forcing the Wolves to play ball with them).
BTW, Portland had an even more depressing situation than the Wolves, and more than anything that 2006 draft-despite being considered a subpar draft-transformed them into one of the more exciting, up-and-coming teams in the league. (Having Oden fall into their laps didn’t hurt, either, but even before that they had turned it around.) Just goes to show what a little smarts, ingenuity, and aggressiveness can accomplish.
by jianfu on Jun 2, 2008 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good points.
Sweetney was a pretty decent player before the weight took over. His per 36 numbers were off the charts for a bench player.
I also like the Chalmers take. Is he big enough to pair with Foye? It would be nice to have to big guards who could shoot and both handle the ball and defend. They don’t need to be traditional points if they have 2 big lugs to throw the ball in to.
I think the Sonics will eventually go with a guard as they have a number of young big men and a wealth of 2nd round picks to blow on Euros that may develop or on college bigs like David Padgett. I think they’ll end up going with Eric Gordon.
I think the only way the Memphis trade works is if the Wolves land Beasley. Honestly, if the Wolves take Love at 3 and end up with Chalmers and a nice big with their 2nd round picks, I think they could do this without a trade. I’ll look a bit more into Chalmers’ game here in a bit.
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 2, 2008 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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