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Over at Britt's place, Hoopus commenter Jianfu and Jason Zeaman break down the Love trade with some of the best takes I've seen yet.  First Jason:

3.3 assists and 3.5 turnovers a game in college does not equal an NBA point guard.

He may be a fine jump shooting 2 guard in the NBA, but he will never be a great point guard.

Nor is he a slashing, driving, explosive, athletic 2. He does not rock the rim. He doesn't break ankles. He's a shooter. He has a nice shot. He plays good D too. That's not bad, but hardly worth getting out on the ledge because your team traded him away.

And...

I'm a little surprised to read some of the comments from Wolves fans. Perhaps it's a sign of dogs being kicked too often, we assume the worst. That and the peculiarity of celebrity and the power of name repetition and the projection of possibility onto someone we don't know very well.

In other words: would you expect the average die-hard Wolves fan to be really upset if the Wolves traded away a young jump-shooting combo guard with little slashing ability and moderate athleticism but good defense who doesn't get to the line very often and has decent but not great point guard skills? Not if they weren't named OJ Mayo.

I think Mayo is a solid player who will be good, probably very good. And who has almost no chance of being great. He will not be a great point guard. He will not be a great scorer. He will probably be a very good combo guard who can do a little of everything, the kind that may make an all-star game here or there in their late 20s/early 30s. Billups with better D and slightly worse O as the best case.

Is that the kind of player we should be distraught over trading?

Here's Jianfu:

Yeah, maybe it's the paranoia particular to Midwesterners in me, but the signal-to-noise ratio on Mayo seemed to jump dramatically from the end of the season to the draft. Keep in mind, when the Wolves got pick #3 in a supposed "2 player draft," many talking heads figured they'd just be drawing straws. Now many of the same commentators are saying they gave away the third potential star/no-brainer of the draft. When did that happen? Maybe I missed some Trojans games?

I think those comments nicely address the most basic premise of the anti-trade sentiment: that Mayo has a chance to be a star/superstar. 

Meanwhile, Draft Express already has put up their 2009 Mock Draft.  Here is a list of 6'4"ish guards in the top 20:

  1. Ricky Rubio
  2. Demar Derozan
  3. Brendan Jennings
  4. Tyreke Evans
  5. James Harden
  6. Darren Collison
  7. Gerald Henderson
  8. Stephen Curry
  9. Nick Calathes

Again, those are the Mayo-esque players in the top 20.  Rubio has just as much buzz, Derozan has just as high of a perceived ceiling, Jennings is making waves with his talk about playing in Europe, Evans is headed off to Memphis as a top recruit, and Stephen Curry burned up the tourney last year. 

One of the things that I think gets overlooked in the whole "OJ could be a star" argument is that most people say something to the effect of "OJ could be a D-Wade type of player while Love, at his best, is a cross between Wes Unseld and Bill Walton."  Aside from the point that could be made about the relative value of 2 Hall of Famers to a guy who owes a large part of his game to getting favorable calls and is frequently injured, how many times is the opposite idea expressed?  Which is more rare: a slashing D-Wade-ish 2 guard or a Wes Unseld type front court player?  Skilled bigs are very hard to find while hot-shot 6'4"ish shooting guards make the rounds each and every single draft. 

The last thing I'll say about Mayo is this: he's a souped-up Randy Foye.  While it would be nice to upgrade to the Camry, I'm glad the team stuck with the Tercel while picking up an F-150. 

Draft Express has released their Draft report card.  Here's their take on the Wolves:

A

You have to take your hat off for Kevin McHale for once. Not only did he go out and get the player he coveted the most in this draft—Kevin Love—he also managed to pick up a terrific player to compliment him in Mike Miller, while also unloading two nasty contracts (with three years remaining) in Greg Bucker and Marko Jaric. That might even qualify as a home-run in our book. Don’t look now, but Minnesota has firmly entrenched themselves to be huge players on the much anticipated 2010 free agent market, if they have the patience to continue to maintain their flexibility.

Throughout the draft process, we got the feeling like Minnesota’s staff was not enamored with Mayo as the third best talent in this draft, like he had been unanimously anointed by the mass media. Love was McHale’s guy, as we reported very early on back in May, and it was very shrewd of him to be able to get both him and everything else they acquired in this trade. Now we’ll have to wait and see what kind of player he turns out to be alongside Al Jefferson. The fact that Minnesota has not given up yet on Randy Foye is fairly significant too.

In the second round, the Timberwolves picked up a first-round caliber talent in Nikola Pekovic. It’s still up in the air whether or not he’ll ever play in the NBA, but if he does, he could immediately (literally) push for minutes off the bench.

Minnesota must not have felt like they had the roster spots to tack on another rookie with their other second round pick (#34), so they converted this into two future second rounders and a cool million and a half dollars. If Chalmers develops into a quality NBA backup, this might not look like such a smart move in time, especially considering how shallow Minnesota’s backcourt currently is.

They hit all the right points. 

Finally, the Memphis Commercial Appeal put up a time line of the deal.  You can read it here. I know there is a lot of talk about how Hoiberg and Taylor got a bit ahead of themselves with some of their comments about Mayo v. Love.  However, I think a case could be made that the comments were made in an effort to gain leverage against Memphis in order to get Miller as a part of the deal.  I could have probably done without Taylor's comments, but this deal broke late and the Wovles won the game of chicken.  I know, it's a bit of a stretch, but the time line combined with comments about wanting Miller really make me believe that they weren't going to budge until Memphis did and their comments about Mayo were to let the Grizz know that they were fine with the guy they had.

Until later.

UPDATE:  In the credit where credit is due department, Jim Souhan writes a column that hits almost all the right notes:

This time around, McHale got it right. He accomplished his primary goal of improving the roster by adding Miller, a great shooter and a good rebounder, and he took a reasonable roll of the dice that Love will be about as good an NBA player as Mayo, and might fit the Wolves' roster better.

The only way this deal backfires is if Mayo does become Kobe and Love becomes Paul Grant. I can't see either happening.

McHale also continued to clean up his own mess. This is an unpopular notion, but the Garnett deal was necessary, and he picked up Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair and a first-round pick. He dealt Mark Blount and Ricky Davis, two of his biggest mistakes (and that's saying something), to the Heat. And now he has ditched Jaric (one of the worst acquisitions of all time), Antoine Walker and Greg Buckner for Jason Collins and Brian Cardinal. Collins and Cardinal could remind you of Ndudi Ebi and that still would be a good trade.

Ripping McHale in this town has become a cottage industry in which I sometimes gleefully participate, but this deal is a good one, especially since he brought two important players who might actually want to stay in Minnesota.

Here, here. If Donnie Walsh came to Minny and made a trade that completely cleaned up the mess (within a year of the big KG trade) we'd all be singing his praises.  Folks, I can't say it enough: this team went from KG, crappy contracts, lost draft picks, and a roster filled with malcontents to a roster with young talent on 5 year slotted rookie contracts, 2 supremely talented frontcourt players, draft picks, a talented stashed Euro, and a ton of cash available in what will likely be the biggest free agent season in NBA history, and they did so within the span of a single year.  My only post-KG quibble will be with the decision not to move Theo Ratliff's deal, as they could have had a player like Miller (or Miller himself) at midseason while still making a draft day deal that would have brought them additional assets.  Ratliff's deal was far too big of an asset to simply let expire.

The Wolves could have 2-3 1st rounders next year (as well as valuable 2nd rounders for Euro players) in a draft that could bring them a guard like Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan, Stephen Curry, or Nick Calathes.  The off-season after that they could max out a guy like Deron Williams or Tyson Chandler while bringing over Pekovic for the big push in 2010.  This is the best way forward and this FO has played their cards about as well as they possibly could have since the KG trade.

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I need my meds...

Judging from between the fan reaction to and your advocacy of the trade, my mood swings are awful right now! :)

For me the fact they were able to dump bad contracts and pick up Miller are the sellable points of the deal. I don’t think all the early Mayo hype from the FO was a ruse, it was their usual spin mode. There’s simply no evidence to suggest that the Wolves are that crafty. I think Memphis simply changed their mind; it wasn’t lying on Hoiberg’s part, or Taylor’s for that matter; these guys hard sell EVERYTHING. They throw anyone under the bus who’s not a current part of the organization, they over hype anything that they see as an asset, because that’s what sports teams do these days.

I’m not getting my undies in a bundle regarding Love vs. Mayo—I really wasn’t terribly excited about either of them. The fact the club was able to take a step back and clean up (once again) some of their self-created mess is the important thing. Whoever hates this trade should be consoling themselves with that. But, you’ve got to play some games before anyone really knows how those two are going to work out. Something Flip said on KFAN yesterday does make you worry about Love though. He said he’s generally never seen a player that got lighter as his career continued in the league. So, if this guy at barely 20 something is already having a Nutri-Systems moment, then lets hope the club can develop a regimen that develops good habits year round.

The other dynamic to focus on is the whole “small area quickness” thing. I have to give McHale credit where credit is due, because he’s using his communications degree to the fullest extent. If someone has small area quickness, does that mean he has “full court sluggishness”? The answer is probably yes. Unless they dominate the glass, Al and Kevin going to be pretty bad in transition. In fact, these guys-the whole lot of them-are going to be pretty bad defensively, unless they find someone like Thibodeau to develop a scheme where they can get at least a stop now and then.

I’ll say it again…it’s nice to have some passion back about the club. I think this kicked up some dirt, and this time around, it’s not all in the fans faces. We have miles to go though before we know if any of this is going to matter.

by Peter W on Jun 28, 2008 1:39 PM CDT   0 recs

I think you're more right than I am...

...on this:

For me the fact they were able to dump bad contracts and pick up Miller are the sellable points of the deal. I don’t think all the early Mayo hype from the FO was a ruse, it was their usual spin mode. There’s simply no evidence to suggest that the Wolves are that crafty. I think Memphis simply changed their mind; it wasn’t lying on Hoiberg’s part, or Taylor’s for that matter; these guys hard sell EVERYTHING. They throw anyone under the bus who’s not a current part of the organization, they over hype anything that they see as an asset, because that’s what sports teams do these days.

They do try and sell everything and they haven’t shown themselves to be that crafty…even this year with a different approach.

They do have the ability to run out a pretty intriguing lineup:

Foye
Shaddy
Miller
Love
Jefferson

I’m not sure there’s too many other teams in the league that have 3 guys that can hit 40% of their 3s with 2 other guys who can rebound and play the high/low post. It should, at the very least, be fun on offense.

BTW: Small area quickness is one of the best basketball marketing slogans of all time :)

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Range Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 28, 2008 1:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what the hell is that shirt McHale is wearing in the photo, did he just come from a card game?

by plinytheelder on Jun 28, 2008 2:15 PM CDT   0 recs

I think he shops at Linens & Things for his wardrobe.

It looks like a shower curtain.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Range Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 28, 2008 3:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice Take on the F.O.

I’ve got to hand it to them; they’ve really done a nice job at dramatically clearing the decks. A year ago the roster was clogged with gravity mongers Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Marko Jaric, Mike James…. (Or as I like to call it, the remnants of Glen Taylor’s “beat Denver” mandate; talk about swinging for low-hanging fruit). I said this before, but I NEVER imagined them getting rid of the likes of Blount and Jaric. Never. I thought we’d have to wait until their expiring years, at the earliest. We’ve basically gone from a hopeless situation, one where we weren’t sure how long it would be until we could even say we’d hit rock bottom, to light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel. Unbelievable. I’m excited.

(Now, if only they’d stop picking quality guards only to sell them off for cash…)

by jianfu on Jun 28, 2008 8:25 PM CDT   0 recs

It's pretty amazing...

...that they did this in a single year. They deserve some credit on this one.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Range Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 28, 2008 11:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW

Anyone else catch this blurb noted at Truehoop?: “Jeffrey Ma of ProTrade, whose advanced analysis is a part of Portland’s draft strategy: “Mark my words: Kevin love will be the best player in this draft.”“

by jianfu on Jun 29, 2008 12:33 AM CDT   0 recs

I think...

...he’s going to be a very special player. The guy produced numbers right up there (or exceeding) Beasley and he did so on a vastly superior team with guys around him that could have depressed his numbers.

One more thing: A lot of people were upset that the Wolves lost a chance to have a guy that could be the “face of the franchise” in OJ Mayo, but did any of those actually hear the 2 guys talk? Did they hear how each guy was able to engage the media? The public? Mayo is a professional, through and through; he’s a serious, monotone-speaking guy who is driven to success but seems to lack public charisma. Love: the guy’s a salesman. You can already tell he’ll be a good quote as well as a guy who will be all-in when it comes to on camera work. He’s just as nationally known as Mayo and he has every chance to be just as much of a “face of the franchise” player as the guy who is going to be the condiment in a mid-market Conley/Gay sandwich.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Range Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 29, 2008 7:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

180

Gotta admint I’ve completely come around on this. This was probably the complete best case scenario this year could turn out.
With the fact that the 2nd half of the season was so much better than the first and now the addition of Miller (and Collins?) we might actually not be awfull to look at.

I’m still a little worried about ever making it to the Finals with a team like Portland just stealing off good players every year. I’m liking this team right now but still a bit sceptical about the future

by Wim (Belgium) on Jun 30, 2008 2:19 AM CDT   0 recs

Portland...

...is 2 years ahead of the Wolves with their rebuilding. They bottomed out in 05-06:

There has been a lot of talk about how the Portland Trailblazers are the model for rebuilding in the NBA. For the 5-32 Wolves, this comparison is more apt than people first realize.

With a record of 21-61, the 2005-06 Blazers were one of the worst teams in NBA history. They ranked 30th in the league for offensive efficiency (101.1), 28th in defensive efficiency (111.9), 28th in pace (90.1), and carried a -9.5 ppg differential with a league-low 16-66 Pythagorean W-L mark. This year’s Wolves rank 28th in offensive efficiency (100.8), 30th in defensive efficiency (111.1), 12th in pace (94.8), while carrying a -9.5 ppg differential with a league low 8-29 Pythagorean W-L mark.

When comparing the rosters, the similarity becomes even uncannier: The 2006-06 Blazers featured a rotation of Zach Randolph, Juan Dixon, Joel Pryzbilla, Steve Blake, Viktor Khryapa, Jarrett Jack, Theo Ratliff, Ruben Patterson, Sebastian Telfair, and Travis Outlaw. Voshon Lenard, Martell Webster, and Sergi Monia also saw significant minutes during the season.

They definitely have a 1/2 start, but nobody knows if Oden is right or if Roy can play hurt near the end of the year should they make the playoffs. They draft really, really, really well, but they’ve still got to put it all together.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Range Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 7:37 AM CDT   0 recs

Well, at least it’s an interesting storyline to follow. 2 years ahead of our rebuilding means they will probably still be at their top when we are so what I ment is that I hope we’ll be good enough to beat the Blazers, IF, as you correctly say, they put it all together.

Btw SnP; I’ve mailed both your gmail adresses on your profile, do you check your mail there or have the addressess changed? Not that it’s urgent.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jun 30, 2008 12:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's hoping it works out...

...BTW: I haven’t received any emails. Here they are again

stopnpop1@gmail.com
natearch@gmail.com

I have a pretty thick spam filter set up so I’ve been told that sometimes things don’t always get through.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 3:05 PM CDT   0 recs

try nr2 sent ^^

by Wim (Belgium) on Jun 30, 2008 3:46 PM CDT   0 recs

got it

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 4:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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