Beasley at 3?
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 3, 2008 3:00 AM CDT
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While I still find it hard to believe that the Chicago Bulls would pass on a player that not only fills their most gaping need, but who is also the most talented player in the draft, should Michael Beasley make it past the #1 slot, the chances of him making his way past the Miami Heat seem to be growing with each passing day.
Last week, much was made of the juxtaposition between the reserved Derrick Rose and the exuberant Beasley at the NBA Pre-Draft Camp in Orlando.
Of more concern may be the perception that Beasley has more than just basketball on his mind. While Rose kept all of his comments on the game and the teams he might play for, Beasley answered a question about Miami not by talking about Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade or Shawn Marion … but by referencing the beach.
That one factor could kill Beasley's chances of landing in Chicago -- or Miami for that matter. Pat Riley continues to insist that the draft is not a two-man race. With O.J. Mayo and Dwyane Wade becoming fast friends working out together in Chicago … Beasley better be on his best behavior.
This comes on top of the reality that the Miami Heat are gearing up for a massive salary dump at the end of next season. Who could they be targeting? It sounds like Elton Brand or Carlos Boozer:
With the Heat eager to clear big 2009 salary-cap space to add another elite player, one logical scenario -- if the Bulls pass up on Derrick Rose -- would be drafting Rose at No. 2 (Miami's hope) and pursuing potential free agent power forwards Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand in the summer of 2009. But if Miami drafts and keeps power forward Michael Beasley, Pat Riley faces harder decisions. Although nothing can be assumed in free agency, an associate said Boozer -- who has a residence here -- likes Dwyane Wade and would be very receptive to Heat interest in 2009, when he is expected to opt out of his Utah contract. Brand displayed a liking for Miami when he signed a Heat offer sheet that the Clippers matched in 2003. Brand can opt out this summer, but the Clippers do not expect that. They believe he will sign an extension or play for $16.4 million next season and become an 2009 free agent.
This isn't the first time Boozer's name has been associated with the Heat. It's also not the first time he would bolt on a team that's heavily invested in him.
Again: if the Heat (and the Bulls) want to pass on Michael Beasley, the Wolves hold all the chips in the game. If Pat Riley wants OJ Mayo, fine...draft him, but the Wolves should offer nothing in return as they would be equally happy with Mr. Mayo running the floor opposite Randy Foye (to say nothing of other players they may have in mind). Riley is bluffing...the Wolves should call it.
Oh, and if Beasley does happen to fall to the 3rd slot, there are 3 options:
- Pull the trigger and draft the best player in the 2008 NBA Draft
- Make a quick call to Memphis and ask them if they want to move their 2 1st rounders, Mike Conley, and Darko for the pick. They could then pick up Love or Joe Alexander with the 5th pick and either CDR or Hardin with the pick in the 20s.
- Make a call to the Bucks and see about an Andrew Bogut + the number 8 pick deal. Even more so than Joakim Noah, Bogut is the perfect compliment to Jefferson. He is a good-passing big man who can defend and take a charge. Bogut is also a Stop-n-Pop favorite. The Wolves could then grab (hopefully) Alexander with the 8th pick.
These are the only options that make a lick of sense should Beasley fall in their laps.
Until later.
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It’s unsurprising to see Lopez fall so far. I know that I’ve been the champion of picking him at 3, but seeing all the new info coming out, I’m OK with any of the 3 options SnP’s laid out for Beasley falling to 3 for us.
I know it’s actually riskier to trade the pick (passing on a potential superstar is really tough to do), with Brewer, Gomes and Al at the 3/4, and Craiggers potentially returning, it’s hard to see where Beasley fits without Al a the 5.
But, then again, when given the opportunity to pick a guy like Beasley, worrying about guys like Brewer and Gomes and Smith takes a back seat.
I still give it less than 5% odds of happening
If Miami is dead set against Beasley, they’ll deal the pick/Beasley. I think Pat Riley’s a bit of an overrated figure in the game, but he’s certainly not going to risk just picking Mayo if there’s potential the Wolves F.O. (of all people) could land an awesome trade for Beasley. (Of course, Riley got snookered into taking Mark Blount, something I didn’t think McHale would ever pull off until Blount’s expiration year, so who knows?)
I suppose there are some perfect storm scenarios. Maybe the Heat have a guy not named Beasley who they REALLY feel makes this a “2 player” draft, and don’t want to risk sliding down. It’d be controversial, but Riley certainly has enough respect/pedigree that a tongue lashing from the likes of Stephen A. Smith on draft night isn’t going to bother him much.
Or, even more unlikely, maybe everyone else in the league feels Beasley is closer to Antwan Jamison than a legit franchise-cornerstone type player. Or that he’s a potential waste of talent like Derrick Coleman. And therefore there simply aren’t any great trade offers for that pick. But again, how likely is that? SOMEONE will make a play for that pick if the Heat don’t intend on employing Beasley next season.
Or, if Beasley measures at 6’7” or something. Then all bets are off.
Beasley has measured out...
...at 6’9” in shoes. He’s got an adequate wingspan and standing reach as well.
I agree with you that Riley is a smart cookie and it seems suspicious that he seems to have tipped his hand a bit with Mayo and Beasley. Even if he makes a trade with another team, the Wolves simply need to pick Mayo and call his bluff. If it doesn’t work out, they keep the pick and they still have a good day. I just don’t see how Riley has any leverage with the Wolves unless he’s willing to settle for Mayo and Lopez (or another player).
From a Bucks’ perspective I’m not sure Beasley’s enough of a sure thing to use Bogut as the makeweight. Maybe if the 8th pick wasn’t included, but as part of pick swap it just doesn’t sit right with me.
I don’t doubt Beasley’s got a much higher expected value than whoever is left at eight, and his statistical upside is higher than Bogut’s, in addition to be cheaper for the next four years. But I think Bogut’s a very good bet to be a top 5-7 center for a long time, so hitting the reset button with a super-talented but tweenerish forward seems a bit too risky. Plus as a Bucks fan I’m always reminded a bit of Glenn Robinson when I see Beasley. Numbers aside, can he really be a championship-level franchise player? If the answer is no then I don’t see the point.
At this point...
...I’d be happy if the Wolves gave up the 3 pick, the top 2nd rounder and McCants for Bogut. You’re absolutely right about him being a top-shelf center for a long time and as bad as the Bucks d was this past year, he had signs of being a defensive anchor for a team that could guard the perimeter. That would give the Wolves Foye, Jefferson, and Bogut heading into a year with (likely) 3 1st rounders and a ton of cap space at the end of the tunnel.
In the end, I think the Wolves are going to end up with either Love or Lopez. While I put “let’s ask for the moon” style trades in this post, I think they’d sell the pick for considerably less if they ended up with one of those 2 players.
Thanks for the input BTW.
I’m not a Lopez fan at all, but part of that’s simply because center is one position where the Bucks don’t need an upgrade. Aside from that, I’m hoping he goes in the top eight so that more guys I do like are available at eight.
Which leads me to ask—with all the talk that Lopez is slipping, what do you guys think are the odds that McHale takes him third, as of today? Let’s assume Beasley does go second. I know Lopez had his workout today in Minnesota but I’m not sure if there’s been any substantive talk of how he did.
I think there's a chance they'd take him...
but I don’t think he’s the favorite by any means, not unless they trade down. Here in MN he’s a popular choice among some fans and media members because he’s got legit 5 size, something the Wolves lack. But I’ve heard assistant GM Fred Hoiberg get asked about him a couple times, and he’s always responded along the lines “good player, but we need to see how he does against some quicker guys.” Who knows? Personally, I think he’d be a bad pick for the Wolves/Al Jefferson. But then again, they don’t care what I think.
Typically, in my opinion the Wolves know who their pick will be pretty early on in the process, and workouts and other such activities are more “going through the motions” than anything. (e.g., last year they had a major workout with 4 small forwards: Corey Brewer, Al Thornton, Thaddeous Young, and someone else I can’t recall. Anyway, by most accounts Brewer got torched by others, and particularly was bullied by Thornton, but the Wolves still picked Brewer.)
Note: I don’t necessarily consider this a BAD thing in principle, as I think too many teams take away too much from individual workouts, at least at the expense of a guy’s college record, but when you evaluate like the Wolves do, I’m not sure if it’s the best.
Anyway, who do you like for the Bucks at 8?
I'd say...
...it’s about a 20-25% chance they go with Lopez right now. He and Mayo are the fashionable picks among fans right now because some people think Mayo could be a superstar and others think that the Wolves need a legit center and then…voilla…they’re going to be good.
I think that the Wolves will eventually end up going with either Love or Mayo if they stay put. Love is about a hundred times more skilled than Lopez and there have been questions about Lopez’s ability to deal with quick big men…the types of players Big Al needs help with.
To me, Lopez fits about zero of the Wolves’ functional needs. He’s a below average rebounder for his height, he doesn’t block a lot of shots, he shoots below 50%, and some of his efficiency rates are less than stellar. On the other hand, Love can pass, hit the glass, get to the line, doesn’t turn it over, and can shoot well all the way out to the NBA 3. While he probably can’t stick with the Tyson Chandlers of the world, neither can Lopez and the Wolves would be better off simply living with Jefferson at the 5 and Love at the 4 (or by drafting a player like Hardin or Jason Thompson and trying a Love/Jefferson/Hardin frontcourt). I’m really hoping that short of landing Beasley, the Wolves figure out a way to make a deal with Memphis while picking up Love.
Timberwolves.com has a feature up about the workout. Mike Trudell is the club reporter and he has some stuff over at the site.
Memphis...
According to DX’s latest podcast, Memphis is having trouble even getting guys to schedule workouts for them. Jonathon Giovany reported that apparently 3 potential lottery picks (excluding Beasley and Rose) have made it clear to Memphis they don’t want to be drafted by them, and won’t work out for them. (Not sure what they could do about it if it happened, but whatever….) So Giovany thinks Memphis may actually try trading down.
Also, some rumors: Chad Ford reported that he heard Brandon Wright + #14 might be available for either a veteran big or a chance to move up. That’s moderately intriguing to me. Wright posted very good rate stats, particularly for a 20-year-old, but in very limited time (under 10 min per game). I might need a touch more sweetening on that offer for the #3, but like I said, moderately intriguing. Although the Wolves passed on drafting Wright last year, and, reportedly, in a trade offer later on draft night. So that’s probably not likely.
Ford also said the Knicks aren’t thrilled with their position and speculates they could try to offer their pick + David Lee to move up. Again, that might be interesting.
We’ll see, I guess.
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