Lopez… even if Beasley falls.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA just kidding.

It’s unsurprising to see Lopez fall so far. I know that I’ve been the champion of picking him at 3, but seeing all the new info coming out, I’m OK with any of the 3 options SnP’s laid out for Beasley falling to 3 for us.

I know it’s actually riskier to trade the pick (passing on a potential superstar is really tough to do), with Brewer, Gomes and Al at the 3/4, and Craiggers potentially returning, it’s hard to see where Beasley fits without Al a the 5.

But, then again, when given the opportunity to pick a guy like Beasley, worrying about guys like Brewer and Gomes and Smith takes a back seat.

If Miami is dead set against Beasley, they’ll deal the pick/Beasley. I think Pat Riley’s a bit of an overrated figure in the game, but he’s certainly not going to risk just picking Mayo if there’s potential the Wolves F.O. (of all people) could land an awesome trade for Beasley. (Of course, Riley got snookered into taking Mark Blount, something I didn’t think McHale would ever pull off until Blount’s expiration year, so who knows?)

I suppose there are some perfect storm scenarios. Maybe the Heat have a guy not named Beasley who they REALLY feel makes this a “2 player” draft, and don’t want to risk sliding down. It’d be controversial, but Riley certainly has enough respect/pedigree that a tongue lashing from the likes of Stephen A. Smith on draft night isn’t going to bother him much.

Or, even more unlikely, maybe everyone else in the league feels Beasley is closer to Antwan Jamison than a legit franchise-cornerstone type player. Or that he’s a potential waste of talent like Derrick Coleman. And therefore there simply aren’t any great trade offers for that pick. But again, how likely is that? SOMEONE will make a play for that pick if the Heat don’t intend on employing Beasley next season.

Or, if Beasley measures at 6’7” or something. Then all bets are off.

...at 6’9” in shoes. He’s got an adequate wingspan and standing reach as well.

I agree with you that Riley is a smart cookie and it seems suspicious that he seems to have tipped his hand a bit with Mayo and Beasley. Even if he makes a trade with another team, the Wolves simply need to pick Mayo and call his bluff. If it doesn’t work out, they keep the pick and they still have a good day. I just don’t see how Riley has any leverage with the Wolves unless he’s willing to settle for Mayo and Lopez (or another player).

From a Bucks’ perspective I’m not sure Beasley’s enough of a sure thing to use Bogut as the makeweight. Maybe if the 8th pick wasn’t included, but as part of pick swap it just doesn’t sit right with me.

I don’t doubt Beasley’s got a much higher expected value than whoever is left at eight, and his statistical upside is higher than Bogut’s, in addition to be cheaper for the next four years. But I think Bogut’s a very good bet to be a top 5-7 center for a long time, so hitting the reset button with a super-talented but tweenerish forward seems a bit too risky. Plus as a Bucks fan I’m always reminded a bit of Glenn Robinson when I see Beasley. Numbers aside, can he really be a championship-level franchise player? If the answer is no then I don’t see the point.

...I’d be happy if the Wolves gave up the 3 pick, the top 2nd rounder and McCants for Bogut. You’re absolutely right about him being a top-shelf center for a long time and as bad as the Bucks d was this past year, he had signs of being a defensive anchor for a team that could guard the perimeter. That would give the Wolves Foye, Jefferson, and Bogut heading into a year with (likely) 3 1st rounders and a ton of cap space at the end of the tunnel.

In the end, I think the Wolves are going to end up with either Love or Lopez. While I put “let’s ask for the moon” style trades in this post, I think they’d sell the pick for considerably less if they ended up with one of those 2 players.

Thanks for the input BTW.

I’m not a Lopez fan at all, but part of that’s simply because center is one position where the Bucks don’t need an upgrade. Aside from that, I’m hoping he goes in the top eight so that more guys I do like are available at eight.

Which leads me to ask—with all the talk that Lopez is slipping, what do you guys think are the odds that McHale takes him third, as of today? Let’s assume Beasley does go second. I know Lopez had his workout today in Minnesota but I’m not sure if there’s been any substantive talk of how he did.

...the Knick pick and Lee might be worthwhile.