Free Agency Time
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 4:22 PM CDT
26 comments
It's that time of the year folks: free agency.
Tomorrow morning the 2007/08 salary season ends and things like BYC contracts reset to their new amounts, raises take effect (congratulations Al Jefferson), and free agents become...well, free.
This doesn't mean that folks will begin signing free agents tonight at 12:01 AM. Nope, the NBA has a week-long moratorium until July 8th: the date at which free agents can be signed, salaries will be adjusted to the new cap, and extensions can be offered. For the Wolves, Rashad McCants is the only player that would likely be eligible for a raise/extension and I'd bet a box of donuts that will not happen.
What will happen in the next week? Teams will talk to one another as well as prospective free agents and deals, plots, and schemes will be hatched to bring this player or that player here and/or there.
As you may have already heard, today is the deadline for exercising options or tendering qualifying offers to players with these sorts of things on the books. The Wolves have extended qualifying offers to restricted free agents Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, and Chris Richard. Sebastian Telfair and Kirk Snyder were not so lucky.
Snyder is likely gone as Mike Miller probably sealed the deal on the need for an additional wing player. Telfair's qualifying offer was somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil but I suspect the team will try to bring him back for a different (i.e. lesser) amount.
Cutting to the chase, the bottom line here is that the Wolves have a week to talk to other teams about backup point guards. Either they re-sign Bassy or they work out a sign and trade with another team by dangling out a guy like Smith. (There are clearly other options, but if the Wolves do choose to move someone, this is the most likely route short of trading McCants.) Why is this likely the case?
The Wolves have 9 guys locked up for the season: Jefferson, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins, Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Mark Madsen, McCants, and Kevin Love. Gomes and Richard will likely be resigned. That leaves 1 active roster spot for the Rhino and Bassy. The team absofrickinlutely needs another point. My guess is that Smith had his option exercised so that the Wolves could match any offer and then move him in a deal for a backup point like Kyle Lowry. I'm sure the subject of Lowry was brought up in the Love/Mayo talks with Memphis.
Things to watch for with the Wolves:
- The Los Angeles Clippers. If the Clips make a run at UFA (and former Wolf for a Day) Beno Urdih, watch for injured point Shaun Livingston to become available. If Livingston is not extended a QO by the end of the day, he's on the open market and the Wolves should make a call to Livingston's agent and LA to see what it would take to make Livingston a Timberwolf. While Livingston would be a risk, he would likely be a 2 year risk that would clear the books before 2010 if he didn't pay off. If he *does* payoff, then the Wolves suddenly have a backcourt/wing that goes 6'7", 6'4", and 6'8".
- John Lucas. His name has repeatedly popped up as a potential option for the Wolves.
- Rookie free agents. The Wolves have signed Drew Nietzel to play on their summer team and he could be stashed away in the D-League should things go south during the season at the point.
- Will Bassy get a big offer from another team? The Wolves may be playing with fire when it comes to Bassy. Let's say that a point-hungry team like the Clips offer up a full MLE to Telfair. Then the Wolves' backup point is likely gone. There are plenty of teams out there who saw what Bassy did last year and they could do worse at the backup 1 than Mr. Telfair...like the Heat for instance.
- Steve Blake. I don't know what the Wolves could give Portland to get him out of the final year of his deal, but Blake is exactly the type of good-shooting point that could spot Foye some minutes.
Finally, wouldn't Mario Chalmers be nice to have right about now? I'll say it again: the loss of Chalmers will eventually be seen as a worse loss than Mayo. The guy will be starting in Miami by the end of next season. Watch: they'll end up extending an offer to Bassy just to rub it in.
The Wolves are in bad need of a backup point. Bid adieu to either Richard or the Rhino.
Until later.
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Can we move on?
We get it that Chalmers is the second coming of CP3 and that his trade to the Heat was the worst in NBA draft history. What’s done is done. Can we move on?
by kurosawa on Jun 30, 2008 4:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey...
...it’s their biggest need right now and they blew it.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 5:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One the season starts....
.....I’ll be happy if we all feel the biggest hole on this squad is backup PG (or backup anything). If they snag Livingston on a 2 year jiggity-jig all will be forgiving on the Chalmers snafu.
by Pants_ on Jul 1, 2008 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's thin at the 1...
...Foye and…....
I’m not looking forward to the Drew Neitzel era should Bassy find a home elsewhere.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another possible cut...
could be Madsen. I don’t know when you can buy out contracts, but that has to be a possibility (especially if Love can take over the upbeat, energetic white guy role). I’d rather the Wolves spend $5 million to buy him out than lose Richard or Smith.
by McCleak on Jun 30, 2008 6:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They could buy him out...
...but it would still count against the cap. They can also simply render him inactive. The team can carry up to 15 contracts, 12 of which can be active. Smith simply has no place on this team. From playing time to shots, his time is out the door. An undersized PF whose primary value is bench scoring doesn’t have much of a spot on this team. It will suck to see him go and hopefully they can find a good trading partner for him, but…well, who knows?
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With Smith...
I think that he probably is on the trading block. He’s looked like a starter the last two years, and will probably never have a higher value as a trading asset. You’re right that he doesn’t have a place on this team now that we have Love. My reasoning behind cutting Madsen is that a) it’s not that expensive or long of a contract, so its effect on the cap would be negligible, and b) I don’t think he could be traded, except as cap filler for a Smith deal.
by McCleak on Jun 30, 2008 7:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
There is no reason to buy out Maddog.
Sure, he’s making way more money than someone of his talent level should be, but he’s also the leader of the lockerroom and makes no complaints about playing time or anything of the sort.
by roundhouse on Jun 30, 2008 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And...
...he’s a future member of the country club.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2008 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose the path of least resistance might be to just try and bring back Telfair. After that, Chris Duhon’s an UFA. That’s, well, not exciting. But he’s a decent defender and is decent from behind the arc. And unlike someone like Carlo Arroyo, Duhon probably won’t mind coming off the bench.
Certainly, the idea of trading someone like Smith for a PG is more interesting. Beyond Livingston, there are guys lke Lowry, Felton, or Marcus Williams whose teams may (or may not) consider moving on from them. Smith could play for all 3 of those teams, so who knows? Although frankly, whether some of those guys are worth Craig Smith might be debatable.
by jianfu on Jun 30, 2008 11:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Marcus Williams...
...is an interesting one. He was viewed as a nice prospect coming out of UConn but he ran into the same thing that Bassy did: he can’t shoot for you know what.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea of Livingston. It’s really a no risk gamble. Though I also like Telfair and I don’t think they’re gonna offer him anything over 2 years (probably only 1 year). So not really a lot of risk there either. Could we get both or is that not possible?
Don’t wanna beat a dead horse here (but gonna anyway, neheh) but it’s just so mind-boggling what happend with nr34. Would have liked to also resign Telfair and see whichever made it (if they both did, we could still slide Foye a bit more to the 2 and Corey tot the 3).
Speaking of Corey, how is his offseason going. Did he maybe already put on some muscle/weight? Any news on the jump shot? Or too early to tell?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richard on the inactive list and into the D-League for a longer time this year around (or might he already be cut?) to make up for that active roster spot (or do D-League players also take up a roster spot?). Although if we could get a good point (like Duhon?) and have to offer the Rhino I’d do it. Like the guy’s charisma a lot but with the addition of Love we can’t just keep stashing “smallish” front court players. Every good team has some diversity at each/most position.
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 1, 2008 3:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Harding_Lucas_III
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
aw
than I’d rather have Neitzel, at least he has a funny surname..
We’ll see how it goes at summer camp
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 1, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jannero Pargo?
Any thoughts on Jannero Pargo, who’s now an unrestricted FA? I feel like everytime I watched the Hornets recently, I remember thinking, “their backup is better than any PG we’ve got…”
by PDGirl on Jul 1, 2008 1:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If he's cheap and willing to take a 2 year deal...
...he’d be great. The Wolves have really backed themselves into a pickle with the backup pg by not extending a QO to Telfair and by trading away the 34th pick that could have been Chalmers or a guy like Kyle Weaver. If Pargo wants to play for under $3.5, then he’d be fine. They simply need a guy for some minutes off the bench and some spot starts.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mario Chalmers
the loss of Chalmers will eventually be seen as a worse loss than Mayo. The guy will be starting in Miami by the end of next season.
I have to hand it to you for sticking it out S&P and if you are correct my opinion of your judge on NBA basketball talent will rise even higher than I hold for you right now (and if Jordan makes it Andy G is going to be my hero). However, with so many teams passing on CDR and Chalmers (and Jordan) and your opinion of them being mid to late first round picks, I have to wonder what NBA professional evaluators of talent know that you do not.
Obviously, NBA teams make bad choices regularly and players picked in the second round often prove teams wrong. But, predicting which second-round picks will be the ones to prove teams wrong is not an easy thing to do.
I get it that Chalmers had good numbers and stats in college, but what caused teams to pass on him. Same with CDR. I’ll throw out supply and Demand. The same reaason that the Wolves didn’t offer Telfair a QO. There is too much supply of PG available and not enough demand for run of the mill types. Same with small forwards. Chalmers and CDR might be more than run-of-the-mill types at their position, but doesn’t all those teams passing on both of them shake your confidence in your analysis of the players before the draft just a little bit. Not that it should, I’m just wondering if it does.
by Andy B on Jul 1, 2008 1:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea...
...why Chalmers fell. I’ve looked and looked for a reason but some mocks had him going as high as the 12th pick. My guess is that he didn’t work out for a bunch of teams in the 20s and that did him in (like it did to CDR), but it still doesn’t explain why a guy like CDR fell in the 2nd round. Both players had numbers that placed them in the top 2-3 players for their positions and they fell. I don’t have an answer for that.
You also hit on something that I can’t possibly have access to: scouting and personal interviews. There may be a non stat-based flag that these guys triggered that will never surface. With Chalmers I think it’s simply a case of him not working out for a lot of teams in the 20s (I could be wrong on this; I admittedly haven’t checked the workouts of all the teams in that range) and him slipping past the 2 teams that would have taken him in the teens but instead sprung for different players. After all, the Heat gobbled him up right away and he was on the top of the Wolves’ board had they kept the pick. As for CDR…well, I don’t know because the guy was the highest scorer in the NCAA tourney, he was the most efficient player on the 2nd best team in the country and he has a 3 year track record of simply being able to put the ball in the bucket. I absolutely do not get why he fell.
To once again harp on a point that I’ve made over and over, if the Wolves knew there was a shot to unload Jaric in a deal to the Grizz, it makes zero sense that they would blink and trade the 34th pick when they could have got a functional backup on a 1 year deal. My guess is that they didn’t want to let Memphis know that Chalmers was the backup guard plan because that would signal that they were going to deal Mayo. Here’s hoping that they worked out a sign and trade for Smith and Lowry. Both teams would benefit.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PS:
Both CDR and Chalmers should play like they were snubbed next year. I remember all of those commercials with Arenas whining about how he was passed over and I could see both of these players taking a similar ‘chip-on-the-shoulder’ approach to the game next year…esp CDR.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Livingston
The more I think about it , the more unbelievable Livingston even has a shot. Remember, doctors initially considered AMPUTATION after his injury.
Obviously, the potential reward for Livingston is very high. But I’d say the odds of reaping that reward aren’t that great, especially within the next year or two, the period of time, in this speculated acquisition, where he’d be with the Wolves. If they acquired him tommorrow, I’d be on board, but I’d still hope they can come to terms with Telfair.
Anyway, I have very little idea about what the trade currency of Pekovich might be. But if we’re going to engage the Clippers, I’d love to make a play for that owed pick. It just seems like the coup de grace on the Era of Reckless Decisions, the last remaining element hanging over our heads before we can finally fully turn the page. Smith/Pekovich for Livingston/owed pick? Again, I have very little idea about Pekovich’s value, and that would be a unique trade: a productive backup PF and potential Euro ringer in a couple of years to the Clips; a long-shot, potentially ruined former top PG prospect plus a returned pick to the Wolves? Is that too much from the Wolves? Too little? I don’t really know. Just throwing it out there.
by jianfu on Jul 1, 2008 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've thought...
...about how the Wolves could offer a package including Pekovic to the Grizz for Conley. They’re stacked with about 5 guards that could play the point and they can’t keep them all. If I were a GM with an extra front court player, I’d bug Chris Wallace to no end. Maybe Pekovic, the Celtic pick and a sign and traded Craig Smith for Conley. I know it’s another long shot but the Wolves need a point badly. Here’s hoping they didn’t screw it up with Bassy.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 1, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would definitely not make that move – Conley might get you 10 more wins this year, against Pekovic?
I have to admit I’m somewhat intrigued by Neitzel. (By the way, why is his name floating around here – do the Wolves have a chance to sign him?) Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer almost anyone else, e.g. Telfair, Chalmers, Conley… But if it were between paying guaranteed $ to someone like Duhon or Lucas and taking Neitzel, I could see the latter being a stopgap while they wait for a real quality pg to come out of the draft or via a trade. With Neitzel they could have a real Lakers-style offense – everyone could shoot the 3, leaving Love and Jefferson plenty of room to work. I like that Neitzel doesn’t try to do too much too, at the very least I bet he’d keep the T.O.s down. Obviously it’s tough to see who he could guard, but he could be a nice backup someday.
by plinytheelder on Jul 2, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way aren’t the Grizzlies pretty high on Conley? I thought Lowry was the guy they were shopping.
by plinytheelder on Jul 2, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My understanding....
...is that they need a 4 and that Conley could bring back the most in return. We’ll see. I get the feeling that Conley wasn’t really the pick that set right with Wallace and that there is some tension between him and the coach as far as the roster going forward.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 2, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neitzel
The Wolves worked him out and invited him to their summer league team. So that explains his name being bandied…
I don’t mind the idea of going a little outside the box, as opposed to just throwing the vets minimum at someone like Duhon. But I do think you’d need someone a little more “sure thing” than a guy like Neitzel.
To extend my personal long-standing fetish for KU guards, how ‘bout former Jayhawk Aaron Miles?
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Aaron-Miles-73/stats/
He went undrafted in 2005, but has been playing at a very high level in Europe (ACB last year, and over 30 mpg with good numbers in the Euro league the year before that). He’s 25. He was in the summer league with the Wizards last year, but obviously didn’t stick. Not sure about this year. But you’d know he’d run through a wall to get a legit shot.
Funny. Looking at that profile, they list his “best case” as Chris Duhon. I’m not going to speculate whether or not Miles might be better than Duhon, but I don’t think they’re all that similar, outside of being game defenders. Duhon’s a jump shooter; Miles seems to be more of a tempo guy/distributor (good PPR marks). And his shot even looks to have improved (the reason he didn’t get drafted out of college). If he can translate that steady hand to the NBA, he’s be a solid backup to Foye. Looking at his numbers, it’s tough to figure out why he hasn’t gotten more than a cup of coffee at the NBA level.
by jianfu on Jul 2, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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