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Offseason Primer: Draft-Day Trades

DraftExpress recently had a little rumor stating that the Wolves are looking at trading up into the 1st round, probably with their two 2nd rounders (31 and 34). Looking for more young talent now, as opposed to in the years ahead is a double-edged sword. It'd be great for long-term chemistry to get some prospects now that can grow alongside the current core of youth. However, if youth now comes at the cost of future picks, they run the risk of missing out on something better down the road.

If they do look to acquire an extra 1st rounder (or two) without trading the 3rd pick, who can the Wolves approach? Although there's likely a good deal of disagreement about the Wolves' tradeable assets, I'm working with the following list: Rashad McCants, Antoine Walker and Greg Buckner, this year's 31 and 34 picks and future 1st rounders owed to Minnesota by Miami and Boston.

Chicago (1, 39) Minnesota simply doesn't have the pieces to move up to #1 without letting go of #3.

Miami (2, 52) Ditto.

Seattle (4, 24, 32, 46, 50, 56) Since the Sonics already have four 2nd round picks, our 31 and 34 aren't an enticing return for 24. However, the Sonics do need help at shooting guard. Even if they take a guard at 4 (all signs point to Bayless at this point) they may be interested in Rashad McCants. From the Wolves side, though, I doubt 24 is enough to net Shad. If they're willing to part with a young frontcourt player (Collison, Sene, Petro), there might be mutual interest.

Memphis (5, 28) The biggest reason for teams to trade from the 1st round to the 2nd is money (see Phoenix below here, here and here). While Memphis has had all sorts of issues with ownership spending (see Gasol, Pau) they don't seem a candidate for trading a 1st for two 2nds. While it'd be great to pry 5 from their hands, there's no perfect match given the Wolves' assets.

I think our best offer would be Shad, Toine, our 2nds and both Miami and Boston's future 1sts for 5, Cardinal and Mike Miller (to be flipped elsewhere to get more value for Memphis). But I'd Memphis could get a better deal elsewhere.

New York (6) This would be a great pick to target for a guy like Gallinari, Love or Lopez (if they're not taken at 3 a lot). New York has salary cap problems that could be helped by Toine and Buckner, but I get the sense that Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni are more interested in accumulating talent on their roster. Moreover, the current deal that's floating out there with Philly (Randolph, 6 for 16, salary filler) would be more appealing than an offer from the Wolves.

LA Clippers (7) The Clippers definitely have some dead salary-weight (Mobley and Thomas) that the Wolves could over to take off of Scrooge McSterling's plate. But their needs in the backcourt would be better addressed by a guy like Eric Gordon at this pick than a guy like Shad via trade.

A deal of 7, Mobley and Thomas for Walker, Buckner and McCants would save the Clipps $10 million when all is said and done. In this loud-mouth's opinion, $10 million and dealing with Mobley and Thomas for 2 more years would be worth the 7th pick. But, is that enough for LA? Would they require Miami's pick or our 2nd rounders?

Milwaukee (8, 37) The Bucks are a team that could go either way this season: do they try to acquire more veteran talent to make a playoff run next year, or do they continue accumulating youth to add to Yi and Bogut? With a new GM in John Hammond and no transactions (other than firing Krystowiak) in his tenure, there's no telling what direction he's headed.

If the Bucks are looking to shed Bobby Simmons' or Dan Gadzuric's salaries, the Wolves may be able to oblige. Walker and Buckner together in exchange for Simmons and Gadz would save the Bucks $26 million. That, of course, means the Wolves would be taking on $26 million; that's a big matzah ball and would kill the Wolves' cap space. While Gadz is overpaid, he fills a need in the Wolves' frontcourt. Simmons is owed $20 million over the next two seasons, but is arguably more overpaid than Gadz. The Bucks would likely ask for one or both of Boston and Miami's picks. Depending on who's still available at 8, it may be something the Wolves could consider.

Charlotte (9, 38) Of course the reflex is to dangle Shad to the Bobcats. But, with Jason Richardson firmly planted at the 2-spot, I doubt they'd have much interest in McCants. They don't seem to have much salary to shed, unless they want to undo the Nazr Mohammed mistake. The deal with the most financial sense appears to involve Mohammed for Buckner and McCants, but that's not going to be enough to pry the 9 away from Charlotte.

New Jersey (10, 21, 40) The Nets are known to be looking at moves, but I think they're looking for star power in return or a much higher pick than they have. They also don't really have contracts they need to unload, so our expiring contracts probably won't have much value to New Jersey.

Indiana (11, 41) Larry Bird has a lot of work to do with this roster. It's a mishmash of overpaid veterans, young talent, and the Jermaine O'Neal predicament. I don't see them doing a deal until they figure out what they're doing with O'Neal, nor do I see the Wolves as a potential suitor for O'Neal. I'm sure they'd be happy to rid themselves of Jamaal Tinsley or Troy Murphy's contracts, though. While I'd want no part of Tinsley if I were McHale, a Walker for Murphy and 11 works salary-wise. It also means killing cap space and taking on $24 million for the Wolves. While Murphy's size would be helpful, and his perimeter game matches Al on offense, Murphy wouldn't be a very good long-term investment for the Wolves.

Sacramento (12, 42, 43) Geoff Petrie would probably love to dump Kenny Thomas and/or Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Neither would have very good value to the Wolves, but if it netted them the 12 pick, they'd have to think about it. Swapping Thomas for Walker works straight up, with the Wolves taking on almost $9 million the year after next. If they threw in a future 1st, that might get the Kings listening.

Portland (13, 33, 36, 55) Portland is not likely interested in more 2nd round picks. Moreover, they're going to be looking to package a bunch of their assets to consolidate talent. That doesn't really fit what the Wolves have to offer.

Golden State (14, 49) Mullin is reportedly targeting Yi via trade with this pick, but I doubt the Bucks would bite; they seem pretty happy with the Yi/Bogut duo.

Phoenix (15, 48) Phoenix is always a candidate to trade out of the 1st round (see the links above) and they might be interested in putting off their pick by taking Miami's future 1st.

Philadelphia (16) As I mentioned above for New York, Philly's looking at a swap already. I've also read a lot of Wolves fans posting to message boards that they'd like to take Dalembert off the Sixers' hands for Toine's contract, and get a pick back. With Philly's unexpected playoff success, though, I don't see them trading core players.

Toronto (17) Bryan Colangelo has a point guard mess to sort out, and I assume that will be his first priority. They don't have any salary problems we could solve and they've already got shooters, so McCants may not be too valuable to them.

Washington (18, 47) The Wiz have two stars to re-sign this offseason, and may be interested in dropping out of the 1st round to save money. They may be interested in moving Etan Thomas's contract, especially given that his heart condition makes you wonder if he'll ever play again. Shad and Buckner would match salaries with Thomas, but with DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young, McCants would not fill a need in Washington.

Cleveland (19) Shad's shooting and slashing would be valuable to the Cavs' offense, but the perimeter prospects likely to be available here will probably be more attractive to Cleveland. Their bad contracts are almost all expiring after next year, so we can't offer them much salary cap relief either.

Denver (20) Ty Lawson is widely pegged at this spot as a much needed point guard of the future. That's a pretty good fit, so they might not be interested in moving this pick. While Steven Hunter would be a decent stop-gap center for Minnesota, Shad wouldn't get it done salary-wise, nor does he fill a need for the Nuggets.

Orlando (22) The Magic should be in the market for a shooting guard (unless they start playing JJ Redick), but next to Jameer Nelson, Shad would put their backcourt at a serious size disadvantage. They don't really have any salaries to dump either. But, if they were interested in moving down to our 2nd rounders, a Redick, 22 for McCants, 31, 34 would work financially. Not sure they'd see McCants as that much more valuable than Redick, though.

Utah (23, 44, 53) Another team with enough 2nds to not have interest in ours. Their salary situation doesn't require Toine's contract either.

Houston (25, 54) Rockets GM Daryl Morey recently said they'd be looking to improve via trade, but the Wolves don't really have a talented veteran that could help a contender.

San Antonio (26, 45, 57) Although it'd be great for Minnesota to swap 31 and 34 for 26, the Spurs already hold two 2nd rounders and would therefore not likely be interested.

New Orleans (27) New Orleans should be looking for bench depth this offseason, and Rashad McCants might be a perfect option. A straight-up swap of 27 for Shad obviously wouldn't be enough for Minny, but adding a guy like Hilton Armstrong, or throwing Jaric into the equation would sure sweeten the deal. The Hornets don't really have the contracts to take back Jaric, but an Armstrong, 27 for McCants may end up being the best deal the Wolves can find straight up for Shad. If they're interested in moving him at all, of course.

Detroit (29, 59) Detroit is rumored to be looking to move up themselves, given the expected roster shake-up. Already holding 31, though, limits the value of this pick to the Wolves significantly.

Boston (30, 60) Ditto the Pistons; trading up one spot doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

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Wow

Some serious homework must have been done for this post. Nice job. I assume none of his research was done on your company’s time.?

We’ll have to watch how things unfold, of course. If the Wolves really like a guy and he’s still hanging around as the first round drags on, maybe they’ll actually pull something off. The NOLA Armstrong, #27 pick is certainly an intriguing idea.

Another possibility might be trying to engage a team like Dallas or Atlanta, marginal contenders without a first-round pick who might be itching to get into the action a little earlier. If it’s possible, stockpiling another future first rounder for those 2 picks wouldn’t be a bad night’s work, either, particularly with a team like Dallas or Atlanta whose fortunes could really take several different paths over the next couple years. (Again, depending on how things shake out.)

And I really wouldn’t be a fan of the Wolves taking on more future salary in any deal.

Another thing to consider is the numbers game. The Wolves have 8 players under contract next year: Walker, Jaric, Buckner, Foye, Brewer, Jefferson, Madsen, and McCants. Obviously that can change if players start getting thrown around in deals in 2-for-1 fashion, but as of now it’s 8. They also have four restricted FAs: Telfair, Gomes, Smith, and Richard. What happens with them is anyone’s guess, and likely is contingent on who the Wolves pick.

All that is to say, how many players will they realistically look to add on draft night? It’s almost a given they’ll add a guaranteed contract with their first pick, so that pushes the total to 9 guys. It’s also probable they’ll look to retain at least 2 of the Telfair/Gomes/Smith/Richard group (depending on who they draft), but who knows?

All that is to say, considering this, I’d be surprised if they come out of this thing using their three picks on 3 guys who will play on the roster in 2008/09. I think they’re likely to either pick a Euro to stash away with at least one of the 2nd rounders (and btw, agents of foreign players are suddenly not so offended by the second round, as it gets their client out of the rookie pay scale and gives them a little more leverage), use the second rounders to move up to the first round, or move them for future considerations.

It’s also because of this number crunch that I’d be surprised if they traded down for multiple first round picks (Memphis, New Jersey) (barring the Wolves shedding multiple players in the process, of course).

In the end, the Wolves are primarily (or should be primarily) in asset-gathering mode at this point, because they’re going to be bad again. You hope they nail that #3 pick, and keep it an asset. And while I’m as guilty as anyone in getting hopes up over potential sleepers and role players that could be available at 31 and 34, if you can convert those picks into something good down the road (a Euro stud or a pick in the future), then you have to consider it.

by jianfu on Jun 6, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, company time....

Actually I did this over a couple of sittings late at night. Thanks though.

The roster space is definitely a concern. I’m in favor of bringing back Telfair and Gomes, depending on their asking price. And, after reading a post over at Rube Chat making the point that a 2nd rounder as talented as Craiggers is uncommon and just letting him walk would be foolish, I tend to think keeping him is a good idea. Then we’re faced with the prospect of letting Chris Richard walk and essentially wasting last year’s 2nd rounder (I will reiterate that I think signing him to a one year contract was absolutely moronic).

So, with 8 under contract and 4 guys I’m interested in keeping, that’s 12, plus the 3 picks we currently hold and we’re right at the roster limit.

I think if we can’t get a pick in the 20-25 range with our 2nd rounders, we pick at 31 and try to trade 34 to seattle for a couple lower 2nds. With 2 picks in the 40s or 50s we could trade one for a future 2nd and give it to Detroit next year (we still owe them a 2nd and it’d be nice to give them a pick in the 50s instead of our own, which will likely be in the 30s again next year).

While I know that wheeling and dealing isn’t McHale’s style, it pains me to see what guys like Kevin Pritchard can do on draft day with a couple picks, a bit of cash and some creativity.

by wyn on Jun 6, 2008 3:58 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At this point...

...I’d be happy with a straight up trade with the 3 pick for Memphis’ 1st rounders. If they could swing a deal that landed them Miller, then that would be even better. How about this (including TE to make it work money-wise):

to the grizz:

- 3rd pick
- Toine
- Shaddy

to the wolves:

- 5th pick
- 24th pick
- Mike Miller
- Brian Cardinal
- Kyle Lowry

The Grizz immediately move 2 big 3 year contracts while netting the 3rd pick. The Wolves get a 3 that is better than any 3 in the current draft and a nice PG. This would give them a lot of flexibility with the 5th pick. They could even go the Eric Gordon route if they wanted to. Or, they could try to package Miller and the 2nd rounders to a team like Phoenix for the 15th pick…perhaps working with New York in a 3 way deal to land Barbosa in NYC and Miller in Phoenix.

by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 6, 2008 10:52 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hornets idea

As a Hornets fan, I have to say I have been salivating over Shaddy for some time now. He is a perfect compliment to Julian Wright, and he can create his own shot. The dude can straight up score, and he really reminds me of a Corey Dillon, Randy Moss type who can be sullen but who is capable of cleaning up there act if they perceive that they are going to a winner. Those kind of guys are terrible for teams trying to rebuild especially if there is bit of a leadership vacuum. I think you guys will definitely get there, but it might take some time. I say this as a fan of a team that won 18 games three years ago, and might not even make the playoffs next year. Who knows? Y’all might be giving me the same speech next year. Also, Shaddy’s role would be better defined with New Orleans, because no one else can replicate it here (I don’t think we keep Pargo).

Before the Hornets traded Bobby Jackson I was even advocating trading his 09 expiring contract, Hilton and a first rounder for Jaric and Shaddy and maybe Rhino.

It is great to hear affirmation from a TWolves fan that such a trade as you proposed would be reasonable. Trade talk is a blast but there is a really annoying involuntary tendency to overvalue your own players and under value other players.

Hilton has underperformed to this point but he does some things that really make me believe that he would be a the perfect compliment to Al Jeff. Hilton is a legit 6’11 with amazing lateral movement, and athleticism for his size. He is most comfortable playing the 5 but he can play some 4. His down side is that he is lacking confidence on the offensive end, and his rebound rate was inconsistent. He also fouled too much.

Al Jeff is a bit of a defensive liability becaue he lacks the bulk and the height to play the 5, but he isn’t quick enough to guard some of the power forwards especially not on the pick and roll. I think Hilton’s best asset is as a pick and roll defender. Also he is skinny , but he uses his body well, and he doesn’t shy away from contact. He has also shown a nice 15 footer when he has had the confidence to use it. I really think he would make up for some of Al Jeff’s defensive shortcomings, and Al Jeff can score and rebound enough for the both of them.

My one request on this trade proposal would be for one of your second rounders, but it wouldn’t be a deal breaker.

Anyways, good luck next year guys. Great blog, keep up the good work.

by jdpourciau on Jun 9, 2008 2:40 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks JD

It’s strange how much variance exists among Wolves fans on Shaddy’s worth. We’ve all seen his flashes of scoring and when he’s motivated he can play decent D. But I always think of the stuff like bumping Rodney Stuckey or walking right past Wittman after getting yanked for an awfully blown defensive assignment.

He’d definitely be happy in New Orleans, it’s a young team on the rise. And, as you mentioned, he’d fill a need.

For as much as I criticize McHale as a GM, I think Al’s progress can be attributed in part to McHale’s post game tutelage. I have a feeling it could help Armstrong too. Even if worst came to worst, Armstrong would likely be a Perkins-type who is no All-Star but can hold down the fort.

I had a great time rooting for the Hornets this offseason. Barring the ever-possible injury, you’ll be one of the best in the West for a while.

by wyn on Jun 9, 2008 3:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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