Mega-Deal Monday: The Miami/Memphis Years
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 9, 2008 3:48 PM CDT
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There's been a bit of talk lately about the Miami Heat looking to trade the #2 pick in the draft to a willing partner like Minny or Memphis. With no further delay, let's see if these three teams could swing a deal to make everybody a happy camper:
To the Grizz:
- Antoine Walker
- Mark Blount
- 2nd pick (Michael Beasley)
To the Heat:
- Mike Miller
- Marko Jaric
- 3rd pick (OJ Mayo)
To the Wolves:
- Brian Cardinal
- Darko Milicic
- Marcus Banks
- 5th and 28th pick
It's not exactly the sexiest trade out there and Wolves fans may hold up their noses at first sight, but it does have its benefits.
As far as the Wolves go, they would essentially be moving Toine's and Jaric's salaries for what would amount to a sensible and functional free agent signing (Darko) and contract filler that would come off the books one after another in the coming 2 years. All-in-all, they get rid of about $30 million of contracts over 3 years while taking on about $30 million over the same period. The difference is that they turn some of that salary into a functional front court player and they get one of the contracts off the books a year before Marko's deal while saving a couple of million on Banks' deal vis-a-vis Jaric's.
Meanwhile, the Wolves would hold on to their 2nd round picks and McCants (as well as another late 1st rounder) to move up into the mid-1st to grab another asset.
For the Grizz, this deal should be a no-brainer. They clear over $46 mil off the cap over 2 years while taking on about $24 mil. They get the most talented player in the draft and they line themselves up for a big free agent signing in the 09 season with a young core of Conley, Gay, and Beasley.
The Heat have a slightly tougher decision. They take on a bad deal with Marko, but they get 2 players that can step right into their lineup and play some solid minutes. Should they choose to keep Marion, they are looking at a Mayo, Wade, Marion, Haslem, Chump lineup with Miller coming off the bench for a 3-point boost. The problem here is that they won't be able to make a free agent run at Carlos Boozer if he declines his player option next year. If they let Marion walk, they play a year with Mayo, Wade, Miller, Haslem, Chump before signing Boozer and going nuts.
Wrapping this bad-boy up, this isn't an optimal deal for the Wolves. That being said, they do walk away with a functional player (Darko) and 2 picks while keeping a hold of the additional assets that could be moved for yet another mid-1st rounder. The big problem here is that they would have to either buy some more players out or simply deactivate guys like Cardinal and Banks...either way, that money is already out the door in the Walker/Jaric contracts.
PS: The Wolves could even take on a player like Kyle Lowry in this deal as they have a trade exception that could swallow his contract
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Hmmm...
I could maybe live with something like this.
It would be tough to have another Mad Dog taking up space on the roster and cap, but there’s no way to get rid of Walker and Jaric without taking something unwanted back.
I’d have a real hard time with Banks returning, though. I honestly don’t know what you do with him. Bench him and he’s likely to be a disruption, but I can’t see his agent agreeing to a Wolves-friendly buyout since he’s not likely to draw much interest around the league and I can’t see Taylor shelling out much more in buyouts after the past two seasons.
by snyde043 on Jun 9, 2008 6:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Banks...
...would be the problematic part of the deal. He’d likely just have to be put on the inactive roster. Cardinal could fill the Rhino’s roster spot and Darko could be viewed as a free agent signing a year early. I think they could even get Lowry in this deal if they took that much salary off the Grizz’s hands. The thing for the Wolves is that they would essentially be spending the same amount of money on Cardinal, Darko and Banks as they would with Toine and Jaric over the same period of time.
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 9, 2008 6:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Miami's Mind
According to Chad Ford’s latest scuttlebutt, the fact that Mayo had a killer private workout for the the Heat, and the fact Mayo and Wade are reportedly hitting it off well, makes a lot of people think Miami may seriously consider moving down, or just taking Mayo at #2.
Here’s a portion of the article of interest to Wolves fans:
If the Heat decide they prefer Mayo to Beasley, the big question will be what to do at draft time. The most obvious choice is to take Mayo with the No. 2 pick, but given how much Beasley is wanted, the Heat should be able to get some serious offers for the No. 2 pick.
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 3) and the Seattle SuperSonics (No. 4) would love to move up to No. 2. But sources say neither the Wolves nor the Sonics have anything the Heat really covet, assuming the teams wouldn’t include Kevin Durant, Al Jefferson or Jeff Green in a deal.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the most obvious trade partner. As noted last week, an offer of the No. 5 pick, Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry in exchange for the No. 2 pick would be very tempting to the Heat. They also likely could pawn off Mark Blount as part of the deal.
But there’s no guarantee Mayo would be available at No. 5. While neither the Wolves nor the Sonics seem keyed into Mayo at the moment, they have been talking to other teams about trading their picks. To name just two teams, the Knicks and the Clippers would love to move up in the draft to get Mayo.
First, if I’m Seattle, I don’t balk much at giving up Jeff Green if it allows me to grab Beasley.
Second, if the Wolves really wanted to get aggressive, all they have to do is draft Mayo and force the Heat to play ball. (Similar to what Portland did to the Wolves in the 2006 draft.) In my opinion, I think there’s some downside to this strategy, as I perceive Mayo to have more than a little bust potential to him. But even if talks break down and the Wolves are left holding the bag, they could still roll the dice with him, or just trade him to someone else. Which leads me to…
Three: The last sentence stating both the Knicks and Clippers want Mayo. If the Wolves take Mayo in an effort to try to force Miami’s hand and Miami refuses to play, they can easily have one of these two pick another guy they like (say, Love, or Gallinari, or whomever) and then flip them Mayo for the rookie plus something else (say, David Lee, or finally get that pick back from the Jaric fiasco).
In short, if Miami is indeed in Mayo-or-bust mode (and I still have strong doubts about that, although I’m not sure what kind of motivation they might have for making this much noise), then the Wolves absolutely must have them sweating, so much so that they almost have to consider just taking Mayo at #2 (again, presuming they love him this much and, for whatever reason, aren’t enamored with Beasley).
At any rate, it certainly wouldn’t hurt if the Wolves started sending out signals that they too are in love with Mayo.
And of course, now that Miami has sort of become the pre-draft story, watch the Bulls take Beasley #1 and make it all moot.
by jianfu on Jun 9, 2008 11:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Woops. Bad Formating.
The italicized portion of the previous post represents Chad Ford’s work and should extend through the part about how NYK and LAC would love to move up and draft Mayo.
by jianfu on Jun 10, 2008 12:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think...
...Seattle is the biggest threat right now. I don’t buy for a second that Green isn’t on the table with Durrant’s childhood buddy on the line.
However, you’re right about the fact that if Mayo’s there the Wolves have to draft him to force Miami’s hand and/or to trade down (if they decide they don’t want him).
They need to get Mayo in here pronto and absolutely gush over the workout.
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 10, 2008 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless Mayo "pulls a Yi"
Of course, that didn’t really work for Jianlin. So I’m not sure why it would be considered an emulatable strategy.
by jianfu on Jun 10, 2008 10:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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