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Getting to the Bottom of 4 and 5

 

Nba_g_jefferson_580_medium

One of the biggest themes that ran through the conversations of those of us who watched the Wolves play last year was the insistence of some that the Wolves need to acquire a "real" center so that Al Jefferson could move back to his "natural" position, the PF. 

This theme has spun off on a few tangents since the end of the season; the most notable of which is the 'Kevin Love duplicates what the team already has' argument, which is best represented by this post from Empty the Bench:
 
The primary reason last summer’s trade of Garnett was a success is that Minnesota netted future All Star Al Jefferson. He will be the second superstar power forward in Timberwolves history, but it appears McHale is intent on misusing his talents as well by forcing Big Al to center and refusing to surround him with complementary talent.
 
...
 
Then just hours later McHale did get cute and traded for Kevin Love, a player who is by all accounts completely redundant with Al Jefferson. For those few hundred people out there who actually watched Wolves games religiously last year it was painfully obvious that Al Jefferson thrived as a power forward and struggled as a center.
 
This move will force Big Al into the middle, a position where he is both uncomfortable and significantly less effective.
 
Jefferson was perhaps the best offensive power forward in the NBA last season. His 21.1 points, 50% field-goal shooting and 3.8 offensive rebounds a game were elite. He displays a polished set of footwork and post moves that are only rivaled by perhaps Duncan and Garnett. There is no finer power forward in the NBA in terms of low-post footwork and splitting a double team.

 Defensively Big Al struggled for most of the season, but it was most noticeable when he was asked to guard longer and stronger centers. He lacks lateral quickness, length, defensive footwork and the instincts to recover. The numbers back up that anecdotal assessment. While playing at power forward Jefferson’s PER was 29.3 while the opponent’s power forward had a PER of just 19.5. That +9.8 PER ratio is stellar. However, when Jefferson is moved to the middle his advantage quickly falls off. As a center his PER went down to 25.3 while the opposing center’s PER rose to 20.4, amounting to a mere +4.8 advantage. At least statistically, Al Jefferson was less than half as effective when asked to play center.

At first glance, this argument just seems to make sense: Al Jefferson is the Wolves' best player and he's playing out of position.  If the team wants to be good, Big Al should be allowed to play at the spot where he is truly dominant, and Kevin Love does not allow for such a thing to occur.  However, upon looking into the nuts and bolts of this argument, I'm not so sure that it holds much weight. 

Empty the Bench's Big Al at the 4 argument rests on 2 main points: anecdotal evidence of having watched Big Al "struggle" at the 5 compared to the 4 and PER data from 82 Games.  Those of us who have watched a fair amount of Wolves basketball can recognize where the post is coming from with the former, and those of us who read Britt's page are familiar with the latter. 

The problem here is that the data from 82 Games doesn't necessarily support the conclusion that Jefferson, and the Wolves, are better off with the big guy at the 4.  In fact, it is pretty much aligned against the argument that ETB is making. 

If you look at Jefferson's floor time stats by position, you will see, as ETB rightly notes, that Big Al has a much larger PER differential at the 4 than he does at the 5.  What you will also notice is that Jefferson played a total of 3% of his team's minutes at the 4 while logging nearly 70% at the 5.  I don't think I need to dig too deeply into the flaws of comparing sample sizes of such a wide variety. 

If you broke Jefferson's court time data from the entire year and transported its percentages into a single 48 minute game, 82 Game's data has him playing 33.12 minutes at the 5 while logging only 1.44 at the 4.  Again, comparing data with that big of a gap is problematic at best. 

Another item of note from Jefferson's floor time data is the net PER gain at each position.  Let's forget for a moment that we're talking about a 23 to 1 playing time ratio and concentrate on the fact that Jefferson's PER outperforms opposing 4s by 9.8 while "only" racking up a +4.8 at the 5.  What this comparison fails to do is note how Big Al came to these lofty numbers not only compared to his opponent, but compared to his own position as well.  What do I mean by this?

Jefferson's PER production at the 4 was 29.3.  He put up a 25.3 at the 5.  To give you an idea of just how good these numbers are, a 25 PER is listed as being in the range of a bona fide All-Star and a weak MVP candidate, while 29.3 is pretty much MVP territory.  As far as his own production is concerned, and not taking into account the big gap in minutes between each spot, Jefferson has a +4 PER at the 4 compared to the 5. 

Jefferson's opponents have a much smaller gap.  His marks at the 4 are able to rack up a borderline All-Starish 19.5 PER while centers bring the number up to 20.4.  That's a +0.9 (in Jefferson's favor) differential at the 4. 

Where am I going with all of this?  The bottom line with Jefferson's floor time stats is this: for a guy who spends nearly 70% of his team's floor time at the 5, he's putting up All Star numbers on the offensive end while allowing his opponents to put up numbers that may get them a few All Star votes if they were able to maintain that level of production for an entire year.  Big Al is a bad defender at both the 4 and 5, but he is an All Star performer at each position as well, and he was able to do so at the 5 with a much larger sample size than at the 4.  Does he carry a net PER gain at the 4 that is much more impressive than the 5?  Only if you are willing to give equal footing to every 1.44 minutes of court time compared to every 33.12 minutes. 

This comparison really starts to fall apart when you put Jefferson's floor time numbers into the greater context of the team's positional stats.  Out of all their positions, the only spot on the floor where the Wolves outscored, outrebounded, and out PER'd their opponents was at the 5.  Instead of asking questions about how Kevin Love is "completely redundant" to Al Jefferson, how about asking this: How on earth can a 22 win team even think about moving their best player away from their best position? 

Big Al is a center and a pretty damn good one at that.  If he is able to put up similar numbers next year at the 5, with 3 perimeter players who can shoot 40% from 3, as well as a 4 who will hopefully provide the team with a net gain at the position as well as being able to space the lane, the Wolves will be fine with Jefferson playing his "unnatural" position.  If Big Al was as effective as he was last year while playing out of position with a ton of double teams, bad perimeter d, 1/2 a point guard, and no secondary scoring threat...well, imagine what he could do with a real power forward next to him. 

 

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thanks

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also...

Here are Big Al’s year-by-year defensive ratings:

04/05: 104
05/06: 103
06/07: 103
07/08: 108 (league Drtg was 107.5)

So, are we perhaps shortchanging Al a little bit on his D? Clearly he’s not Bill Russell. But in Boston he was fine (statistically) at that end, and this year, with very little help up front, it’s not like he was atrocious.

Personally, I don’t consider Jefferson to have great lateral movement, but both him and Love should be bullish enough strengthwise to match up against most teams. Of course the Stoudemire’s and Howard’s of the world are difficult, but that’s the case for most teams.

In the end, the NBA’s trending towards hybrids (which is actually pretty old school), including the bigs. The Jazz, off the top of my head, are a model team right now despite the fact they have a rather nebulous pairing at the 4 and 5.

by jianfu on Jul 3, 2008 6:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

“Of course the Stoudemire’s and Howard’s of the world are difficult, but that’s the case for most teams.”

...and the Jeffersons of the world are just as difficult on the other end of the court. The Suns went out and got Shaq after Amare got lit up like a X-mas tree by guys like Big Al.

You know, for all of the talk about how Big Al can’t play against guys like Amare and Howard, I’d like to know which player has a bigger deficiency on one side of the ball: Amare, Howard, or Big Al? Howard is a mediocre offensive player when he’s not dunking. Amare is an even worse defender than Jefferson. This is a 2 way game and I think that Jefferson has the best chance out of these 3 players to be the closest to 50/50-effective at each end of the court.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with McHale that the league is getting smaller

McHale and Wittman said about 100x during the week preceding the draft that “our league is getting smaller.” My only response to that would be, “maybe the bad teams are getting smaller.” Just about every playoff team started a 7-foot player. It’s not always the center (Boston’s was KG who plays the 4) but most good teams have some combination of length and bulk up front. Duncan in SA, Bynum-Gasol in LA, Okur-Boozer in Utah, Yao-Landry in Houston, Chandler-West in NO, Dirk-Dampier in Dallas, Shaq-Amare in Phoenix, Oden-Aldridge in Portland…the Western Conference is as “big” as it’s ever been, so I disagree with McHale in thinking that teams are getting smaller. They are every bit as big, but perhaps the increased athleticism and versatility of the bigs (as well as the rule changes that don’t allow the long “back-downs”) have changed the nature of offensive sets. As Boston showed, it didn’t have any effect on the need for strength and toughness under the basket.

Jefferson is not a good post-defender no matter how you slice it. He showed this last year when he tried guarding Boozer, Gasol and others. If Love becomes a great post defender, the combo could work. I personally think he’ll be too small, and won’t be able to pick up the slack left by Al’s deficiencies on that end of the floor. If I’m right, they’ll need to add an enforcer-type to line up next to Al, and either bring Love off the bench as a 6th man, or start him at the 3. Those who point to Detroit as a champion with a 6’9” center should remember how strong Ben Wallace was at that point in his career, and also how good of a defender his partner Sheed was (and still is) at nearly 7’.

With enough offense, we can win regular season games with sub-par interior defense, but we’ll never be a true contender that way. Many fans will be happy with the quick improvement we’ll see by getting two players instead of one with our first pick. However, it’s the long-term solution that has yet to be filled, and there will never be enough offense to compensate for a weak front line.

by Andy G on Jul 3, 2008 7:08 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Pekovic...

is the long term solution. For the short term, they have Jason Collins as a defensive center when the need arises.

by McCleak on Jul 3, 2008 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you're right....

then either Love plays the 3 (which I’m fine with, if he’s up to it) or we traded Mayo for a bench player. I’m all for depth, but when it’s our highest pick in something like 15 years, it probably should have been used on a starter.

by Andy G on Jul 3, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're overrating the problem

2 years from now, I can see the Love/Pekovic situation going only a few ways:

1) Pekovic is a flop, we keep Jefferson at the 5 and Love at the 4.
2) Love is a flop, and we bring Pekovic over in 2 years, with the addition of two more top 5 picks from the intervening years.
3) Love and Pekovic are both flops, in which case we use the cap space provided to use by the Memphis deal to bring in interior help in 2010, as well as having 2/3 more top draft picks.
4) Love and Pekovic are both successful, and we trade one of them (probably Love) for to push the Wolves from midlevel and elite, along with some picks.
5) Love and Pekovic are both successful, and the Wolves use Love as a supersub, a la Manu Ginobli.
6) Love and Pekovic are both successful, and the Wolves emphasize a tall lineup with Love at the 3 like you mentioned. Parenthetically, if the Lakers keep Odom they’ll probably be a rough model of this lineup during the year with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom as their front court.
7) Jefferson becomes a solid 2-way center, Love becomes a superlative 4, and Pekovic turns into another Rudy Fernandez where he’s traded around a like a scratch game card that’s one cherry away from a million dollars.

And while I know you wish we had kept Mayo, I don’t. It’s not that I think he’s redundant, it’s that I don’t think he’s going to be verygood. I’m betting he’s going to Rashad McCants, except half a step worse on offense and two steps better on defense, and he’s going to be seen as a far superior player because he has such a media friendly personality. He wasn’t even in my top 5 during the draft, and I was actually pretty disappointed when the Wolves drafted him.

by McCleak on Jul 4, 2008 3:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not about Mayo...

I wasn’t THAT high on Mayo, either. I thought it was crazy how much hype he was getting, since I question his athleticism and doubt very much that he’ll ever be a 1st Team All-NBA type. I just think that Jefferson is our only cornerstone piece, and he showed last year that his main weakness is post defense, so he shouldn’t be asked to be the primary post-defender. Then, after watching the Finals, I came away thinking (more than I used to, probably) that interior defense is huge in playoff basketball. Since the Wolves could improve any number of ways from a 22-win total, we could’ve drafted just about anybody and added a player like Mike Miller and we’d see a jump in the win column-this would’ve happened if we added nobody and just let last year’s group mature for another season. So if the Wolves win 35 or so games next year, I won’t necessarily look back on this draft as a success. But-if we win the 2013 championship, or even seriously contend for one in the next 6 or 7 years, and Love is a key factor, I’ll think differently. I just think we’ve got multiple holes to fill, and rather than address those, we reinforced an already-existing strength.

Again, and I can’t repeat this enough—take back everything I’m saying if Love plays the 3. I’m just relying on what I heard from the FO before the draft that we’ll see Jefferson-Love up front. If he can play the 3, and we can throw bigger centers out there, that could be fun to watch and very successful down the road.

by Andy G on Jul 4, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When drafting that high, you shouldn’t draft for need (actually, I don’t think you should ever draft for need, but that’s a different discussion). But even if you’re looking at needs, there wasn’t a premium interior defender available in this draft. Hell, there wasn’t even a 7 footer who was worth a top ten pick this year. This draft is all about the team 2 years down the road, which is the right attitude to take.

And I’m not looking for a 35 win success this season. To me a successful season would be Foye stepping up at point guard, McCants becoming more efficient (and possibly a 6th man), Love being a top rookie, and Brewer shooting over 45% on the J (this would probably put the Wolves at 35-40 wins, actually).

Finally, I think that a lineup of Foye/Brewer/Gomes/Jefferson/Collins would be pretty sturdy defensively, actually.

by McCleak on Jul 4, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those are good benchmarks...

...I’ll put up some historical comparisons later on this summer of teams that showed good improvement from their bottoming out year.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on S-n-P, you've officially...

gone too far in making arguments for why getting Love was the best thing the wolves ever did.

S-n-P wrote:

Out of all their positions, the only spot on the floor where the Wolves outscored, outrebounded, and out PER’d their opponents was at the 5. Instead of asking questions about how Kevin Love is “completely redundant” to Al Jefferson, how about asking this: How on earth can a 22 win team even think about moving their best player away from their best position?

This statement is completely ludicrous. Of course this holds true because Al is easily the best player we have and no one else even comes close! He could have been playing SF all year and had the best performance against his counterpart of any position on the team. Does that make him a SF and we should keep him there for the rest of his career?

I don’t care about the sample size. Anyone that has watched the Wolves with their own eyes knows it’s painfully obvious that Al should be playing PF.

by roundhouse on Jul 3, 2008 7:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Jefferson is fine...

at either interior spot. It’s not that big of a drop in defense or offense, and I’m actually shocked that people are aghast at the idea that a 6-10/6-11 player can play center. He’s young and was playing on a bad team; if you give him a better interior defensive option than Gomes or Smith, it could help out quite a bit. Give him that and combine it with Jefferson’s offense and average defensive centering should be more than enough from him. As for switch the spots, here are a few players that did it last year and put up comparable PERs: Kobe Bryant, Andrei Kirilenko, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Vince Carter, Rasheed Wallace, Amare Stoudemire, Brandon Roy, Tyson Chandler, LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Josh Howard, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Andre Iguodala, Tracy McGrady, LeBron James, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, Kirk Hinrich, Josh Childress, Emeka Okafor.

I’m sure you’re eyes glazed over at some point reading that (I know mine did), so I’ll just sum up: The best players in the league can play two positions. So why can’t Big Al, who was the 4th best 4, the 4th best 5, and the 12th best player overall (by PER), play center?

by McCleak on Jul 3, 2008 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

good points

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few things...

1- He didn’t play SF so I’m not even going to touch that one. If we’re going to speculate about positions, you have to be realistic enough to acknowledge that had he played the 3, he likely would have given up much more to opposing 3s than he did to opposing 4s and 5s. This wouldn’t go against my basic point that he’s a center and a mighty fine one at that. Surely you don’t believe this part of your argument.

2- As far as Love goes, his value is in terms of relative worth to other available picks and what those players could do for the Wolves. He was their best player last year. He played center. In order for the team to get better, the main question then becomes something along the lines of finding out which needs to be changed: his position or his surrounding cast? They had their choice of the best available big or small with the 3rd pick in the draft. They went the correct route while picking up a 3 point threat and a backup center. They maintain the position of their best player and they surround him with the tools that give him the most efficient path towards success: reducing double teams, increased perimeter shooting, another post presence, etc.

3- I do care about sample size and there is no way Jefferson carries a 29 PER at the 4 with 70% of the minutes on a shitty team. There would definitely be some regression towards the mean had his minutes at the 4 been close to his minutes at the 5.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

whoops...

...”he” in #2 being Jefferson.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's quite possible...

that if Al had played 70% of his minutes at the SF last year, he still would have had the highest net production of any position on the team. Last year the center position was the only position on our team that had a positive PER which was +3.2 and the 2nd best being PF with a PER of -2.7. So all Al would have to do is have a PER of -2.6 or better at the SF. Seems quite reasonable to me.

by roundhouse on Jul 4, 2008 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

...if you really want me to speculate, I think Al and his opponents at the 3 would both end up with about a 30 PER. He may give up about 30-35 a game at the spot. It would neither be pretty nor sustainable.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well yea I know...

it wouldn’t be sustainable. My point was that Al is so much better than everyone else on our team that he’ll still be the most productive player even when playing out of position. Center is an out-of-position spot for him.

by roundhouse on Jul 5, 2008 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I thought...

...he’d be just as bad at the 3 as he is at the 5 and probably would be at the 4? He’s going to get lit up everywhere and he has a pretty decent track record of showing that his defense at the 4 is very similar to his defense at the 5. If he’s equally bad defensively at the 4 and 5, any talk of him being out of position is simply a matter of semantics. He’s a bad defender. He played a lot of minutes at the 5 and was an all star offensive player. We already know that his offensive production at the 5 is sustainable and it should improve with the addition of a legit frontcourt mate and a perimeter proficient wing.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 5, 2008 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll be able to see...

Although Collins isn’t going to be the answer at center, he will play a few minutes there. It’s going to give us the best chance since Theo left to actually see how Big Al plays at the 4. At least the sample size will be a little better.
But day to day, Al will play the less skilled offensive player when he’s playing defense. He needs to save energy as the offensive focal point. When he is on offense, he will be guarded by their best post defender, whether a PF or a center. I tend to agree that too much is made out of the position he plays because the exact position usually has some flexibility. But our woofies had no flexibility. Al was the only tall player on the team with any skills. I like Love, and think he will help, but I’ll like him a bunch more if he has an inch or two of late growth (or always wears his Saturday Night Fever shoes).

by midlife crisis on Jul 5, 2008 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"(or always wears his Saturday Night Fever shoes)"

:)

That’s a good line.

The thing about defense is that guys like Amare, Howard, and Chandler are every bit as unbalanced on one end of the court as is Jefferson. Amare is a worse defender, Howard can dunk, and Chandler needs Paul to be a big offensive threat. At 23, Jefferson is already at an offensive level that puts him in the upper tier of 4s or 5s in the league. If he can be average on defense, the Wolves have a top line center because more often than not, he’ll make up for any defensive deficiencies on the offensive end of the court.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 5, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My own addendum on the Wolves D

Looking at most sites, it seems like one of the biggest complaint about next year’s D is that the the interior is too small (and if this seems like going after a strawman, it is; but I’m also trying to go after a general complaint rather than call people out). So if you take it as granted that the Wolves’ inside D is going to be bad this year because of size, you have to also accept that it’s going to be better than last years defense. Last year the Wolves had the majority of their power forward minutes taken by Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes, both listed at 6-7. As for taking a center, the only top choice in the draft was Brooks Lopez; everyone seems to agree that not taking him at 3 was the right call. And at the tail end of the draft, the Wolves chose size in Pekovic. He’ll be able to come over after two years, and seems like he could be an average or better center in the Association; his issue is whether he will come over after two years. The other option was DeAndre Jordan, someone who will be in the league in two years, the question is whether he’ll be any good. In Chad Ford’s 1st mock draft, he had him listed as the #14 pick. He then dropped down to #23 in the last mock draft, and slid all the way to #35. Essentially, every team got a look at him and passed, quite a few doing so after having him in for workouts. Additionally, all statistical analysis of Jordan had him as a end of the 1st round talent, at best. The Wolves had to choose between a talented player who might be in the league in two years, and a player who in two years might be talented. I’m more than happy with how they chose.

by McCleak on Jul 3, 2008 7:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...

...Kevin Love + Al Jefferson > Ryan Gomes + Al Jefferson in terms of interior play. The challenge for the d will once again be on the perimeter.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 3, 2008 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

there’s not much Al can do about the perimeter D, though I’m sure people will blame it on him.

by McCleak on Jul 4, 2008 3:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and if it wasn't clear...

I also agree on this. Love is a better defender that people think. He’s just not a “flashy” defender. Especially if he’ll be able to play PF, which I think he will a lot this year.

So it’ll defenitly be better than next year + we’ll have plenty of time to see how much the 2 can do together. So by the time we get an “enforcer” type big, we’ll know how much we need to rely on him.

Getting more and more excited for next year.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 3:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with the overall logic of the post; I’m also pretty happy about the Love pick (though I’d be happier if I knew a bit more about Mayo – only saw him play once). But it still seems to me that Jefferson is a 4 playing the 5. I’m not saying it’s impossible, and Pekovic might someday remedy the situation. But – and I realize this might be a bit nitpicky – this does strike me as somewhat problematic, for a few reasons. First, Jefferson himself has said he prefers the 4. This is pretty big in my book. I know he’s a team guy, but surely you want to keep your best player happy? Second, if I remember right, when McHale brought him in he described him as a 4. So not only does continuing to play him at the 5 go against his own vision of the team, but it probably goes against what McHale told Jefferson when he came in. I guess what I’m saying is this: if I’m Jefferson, I’m potentially less happy than I was a year ago about my place on the team, my future with the team, my ability to develop as a player, etc. I guess I’m a pessimist, and the need is harder to fill than it seems – you don’t just want to bring in some big slow dude who will totally ruin chemistry, etc. And like I said, I like Love. This is just something that sticks out in my mind.

by plinytheelder on Jul 4, 2008 2:03 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

forgot -

I’m not against “small” centers per se – but there’s a reason the small guys who play center are playing there. Ben Wallace is a great post defender whose only offensive skills are rebounds/tips. Unseld (to use McHale’s example) was almost as wide as he was tall; the same (or almost the same) went for Willis Reed.

But I can’t say I’m completely against McHale on this one. I find the Jefferson-Love tandem really intriguing; there’s enough bulk and smarts there that I don’t think they have to be totally deficient on defense. Intuitively, I think McHale’s onto something, though I don’t really know what. I’m really looking forward to finding out though.

You could almost see Jefferson and Love switching positions (4-5) from O to D? I don’t think Love is quite as strong as everyone thinks he is, but give him a few years and he could be extremely tough to move. Love could be effective against 5s if he moves them further away from the basket than they’d like – you can say they’d just shoot over him, but who are the 5s who have a really nice jump shot from the longish end of short range? I can’t think of that many: Oden, Horford (if he’s playing 5), Duncan (likewise)...the other guys all want to take you really low, and if Love can prevent that he could be effective.

by plinytheelder on Jul 4, 2008 2:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing to note...

...about the whole 4/5 debate is that on 1 half of the court, Jefferson doesn’t get to choose who he matches up against. He’s going to draw their best defending big no matter what so 1/2 of the possessions are already out of the bag. As for the other 1/2 I think winning and not drawing a million double teams will clear up any remaining distaste for playing the 5.

As for the FO, while they may have made the right moves, they’ll always have an aspect of BS to them because I’ve never seen another group of people that looks more like they are flying by the seat of their pants than they do. I don’t know if it was by plan or luck, but they’ve ended up in a situation where they needed a perimeter-proficient swing man and a big and they got both. I remember McHale saying Jefferson was a 4 and I remember Witt saying that he needed to not play center. If they start winning games, I suspect they’ll say that this was the plan all along.

If I’m Jefferson, I’m thinking that I have 3 guys who can put up 40% from 3 and a frontcourt partner who can bang more than Ryan Gomes.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points – like I said, I think I’m a pessimist by nature, so forgive me for coming off as gloom-and-doom. One point about your first paragraph: Jefferson can’t choose who guards him, but he can choose where he sets up. When I talk about him and Love alternating the 4 and the 5, I mean Jefferson guarding the 4, but setting up down low on O (with Love up high or on the wing/baseline, hitting open 15-footers on inside-out feeds from Jefferson).

Oh and didn’t you know that Wilt was a vastly underrated pg?

by plinytheelder on Jul 4, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jefferson will always draw their best defender...

RIGHT NOW. As our roster currently stands. If we had a legit center, he wouldn’t even have to be very good offensively, just be able to throw in dunks, putbacks, and have a close-range shot, that changes everything.

If a team then chooses to have their best defender guard Al (Tyson Chandler comes to mind) then they get killed for easy dunks and rebounds by our center (who has David West guarding him). The only teams that could really match up and put their best defender on Al would be the Lakers, Suns, and a few others.

And then add in how valuable it would be having a defensive center next to Al allowing him to guard PF’s, and that is why getting a center is our biggest need.

by roundhouse on Jul 4, 2008 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll find out...

They had an opportunity to draft the best true center available in Lopez and they went with the best frontcourt player instead.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well yea...

Lopez is a big, soft panzy. Even I would take Love over Lopez.

by roundhouse on Jul 4, 2008 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It will...

...be interesting to see how Lopez plays out. The thing with Love over Mayo and Jefferson remaining at the 5 is that the Wolves are a terrible team and Jefferson is their best player. He did a great job last year at the 5 and they took the BPA in Love. Ultimately, I think that’s the right decision.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point ...

exactly. If I was a coach I’d still put Chandler on Jefferson and West on the putback dunker. But that’s the nice part, they would have to pick their poison.

On the offensive end though, I think we kinda already accomplished that a bit with Love being able to play the high post and take it a bit outside and Jefferson on the low block. It will be nice to see if it works though I agree adding a enforcer type center would be nice. It would give an extra tool in the toolbox of the coach.

Anyway, biggest need in my view is still point guard. I love Foye, I think he’s going to come through but for a combo to be effective, you need a “true” point guard (be it shoot-first, pass-first, whatever) and a “true” shoot guard. The combo can then be used as kinda a wild card to create matchup problems.
If you don’t have a true point and true SG. The matchup problems are on your end of the floor because you can’t choose who to put where, you have to go with what you got…

Hope that makes any sense at all ^^

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 5, 2008 4:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think...

...next year will be the year they get the other guard, whether that is point or off.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 5, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

next year’s draft has a lot of guard depth.

Wim, I couldn’t decide whether PG or C is our biggest need, I went with C. They are definitely our 2 biggest needs. But I guess a lot of teams are in the same position as they are the 2 hardest positions to get good players at.

by roundhouse on Jul 5, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, with next year’s draft, as I said, I can see the pieces of the puzzle fall together. I’m confident we’ll have a very good 9 man rotation in 3 years. 2 years from then we’ll see if it was good enough or not :)

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2008 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pfooh...

not really agreeing on this.

On the league getting smaller thing: I agree the league is not getting smaller. What I do think is that the difference between PF and C is getting smaller and smaller. Nowadays we just talk about “bigs”. We are seeing more and more 7 foot guys who don’t camp near the paint and are succesfull without being the best rebounder in the world.

With that in mind I think the talk about PF/C should be translated to. What kind of other “BIG” do we need beside our other “big” Jefferson.

On the offensive end, Jefferson is always gonna draw the other teams best defensive big. So he’s always going to be the “center” on the offensive end (unless off course we get another big that’s equally talented …...) because they only way they’re gonna be able to stop Al is by putting their biggest, strongest player on him. Some teams might try something different but .. let’s just go with this logic for now.

On the defensive end on the other hand. In games against teams that have bigs the way Andy G said: Bynum-Gasol in LA, Okur-Boozer in Utah, Yao-Landry in Houston, Chandler-West in NO, Dirk-Dampier in Dallas, Shaq-Amare in Phoenix, Oden-Aldridge in Portland

The logic says we need a big that can defend either of the 2 in each couple. Since we agree that Al is probably a bad defender regardless of which one of the 2 he guards. At least if we have someone who’s a defensive presence inside we can pick our poison.

I think Love is better defender than most people think. He doesn’t give up post position easily and does the little things to make scoring hard BUT .. with the physicals he’s got: size, wingspan, standing reach. You’re kinda force to put him on the latter of each of those couples because he just have the physical tools to guard the “center” of the 2.

So my problem with not having a “center” is that even though Jefferson has the physicals to be guarding either a center or a power forward we can’t choose on which we put him because the other big doesn’t have that same physicals and can only be used against a “pf”.

What’s flawed in my thinking is that some “centers” aren’t able to guard a PF either. So actually to have the perfect situation we would need to have a center, a power forward AND jefferson. That way we can always put Jefferson where we like him best and if Randy is as witty as his name suggest we should be able to effectively sub in and out the PF and the Center so that Jefferson is always on the weakest one so we can effectively guard the other.

SO, I think we’re on track. As I’ve said, I’ve turned 180 on the deal and think we’re on track. Pekovich might be that Center that I’m talking about, Love is in my opinion defenitly that PF that I’m talking about + we’ll have a chance in 2011 to fill in what we lack in free agency.

I’m seeing the pieces fall together slowly here. I’m still skeptical because this IS McHale. You never know when he might pull another trade out of his hat but he kinda seems to be on the road of redemption. Let’s hope he stays on it.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 2:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta learn to...

use the preview before posting

because he just have the physical tools to
>>
beucase he just hasn’t got te phsy…;

the other big doesn’t have
>>
the other big hasn’t got

SO, I think we’re on track. As I’ve said, I’ve turned 180 on the deal and think we’re on track
>>
Twice on track.. :d

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 2:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious...

and then I go do it again with beucase.

Anyway.

After reading more thoroughly through And G’s post I can see I’m actually partly repeating what he already said (only with some nuances).

What I’d like to add is this. I don’t really like to think in “bench” and “6th man” and stuff like that. To give the example everyone knows: Manu comes of the bench and anyone saying he isn’t part of the core group is crazy.
I much rather like to talk in rotation minutes. I think that gives a better view. Let’s say Pekovich is that center (or that “enforcer” as Andy G says). If he doesn’t work out and we get someone else, sub in that name.
My rotation would be about the following. Who starts and who comes of the bench depends on the starting lineup of the other team. If their best offensive BIG is a PF, we start with Love/Jefferson. If their best offensive big is a Center, we start with Pekovich/Jefferson.

PF: Jefferson (18), Love (30)
C: Pekovich (28), Jefferson (20)

So that totals:
Jefferson: 38 minutes
Love: 30 minutes
Pekovich: 28

30 minutes isn’t really THAT much for that high a pick but hey, that’s the downside of using “combo” pieces. Nothing you can do about that.

This way you’ll have about 20 minutes of Jefferson+Love, 10 of Love+Peko and 18 of Jeff+Peko.

How do you guys feel about that?

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 3:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like it...

assuming that Love and Pekovic are the second coming of Moses like some people (myself included) make them out to be.

by McCleak on Jul 4, 2008 3:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll worry...

...about Pekovic if and when he comes. I’ll definitely be catching some of his games on the interwebs this year. I think EuroLeague is going to have an internet option this year.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

PS:

Wim, I really like how you concentrate on minutes. If only Shaddy could wrap his head around the idea that net minutes (esp when a chunk of them come at the end of a game) are what’s important for production. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Love gets in his rookie year. My guess is quite a bit; more than Brewer did in his 1st.

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by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 4, 2008 6:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

would

sure hope so. Though I’m not really sure they wil. McHale already said a 19yr old is not going to come in and make a huge difference. They also didn’t give minutes to Foye. Though that was in a different situation.
The right use of the young players is a whole different dicussion. I just hope they’ll not shift the minutes that rudely as they did last year.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 7:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Wim’s “minutes” comments too (and I agree – can someone forward this thread to McCants?). One thing I would like to disagree with however (not Wim’s comment, but a general theme discussed in the last week or so) is the idea of Love playing the 3. I simply can’t see how it would work – can anyone really see him guarding guys like R. Jefferson or Carter…not to mention Lebron? I know, he doesn’t have to guard the star – but what I’m asking is this: can anyone really see him playing perimeter D on a guy who can score out there (other than a big man who can hit 3s but is slow, a la Okur)? I find it much easier to imagine him defending the 5 than the 3.

People compare him to Bird but I don’t see it. To me, the difference is this: Bird was a perimeter guy (even in college) who used his inside game to help his outside game; for Love it is the exact opposite. Bird was also, in my opinion, a lot quicker than people think – a smart, anticipating defender with very quick hands (if memory serves, he was often among the league leaders in steals), who could make up to some extent for his lack of foot speed on the perimeter by being bothersome. I just don’t see Love having anywhere near the same perimeter defending skills. I think he’s a 4 or a 5 (albeit one with much better perimeter skills than most), or, to adopt the terminology suggested above, a “big.”

by plinytheelder on Jul 4, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention...

the logjam at the 3 in a couple of years.
If Miller is sincere about wanting to end his career here and Brewer gains the bulk, we already have Miller, Brewer and Gomes who could play there.

Though I can see him play just a little of defense on 3’s like our own Gomes or someone like that, you know, the tweeners. A 3 point shot does not make you a SF. We were talking about putting Beasly at the 3 before the lottery. Even though Love’s physicals are comparable to Beasley’s and he has a better 3 point shot than him, he’s got none of other typical SF skills that Beasley has got (a bit).

The LA thingy with Bynum, Gasol, Odom seems nice but I don’t think Love is an Odom, I see much more of that in Gomes.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 4, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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