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The Return of Mega Deal Monday (On a Wednesday)

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Folks, it's that time of the off-season: time for random speculation.  Actually, this version of Mega Deal Monday (On a Wednesday) isn't really random; rather, it's a continuation of my post from earlier this week about the Wolves' chances in 2009 free agency.   Enough with the introduction, let's get a'dealing:

To the Cavs:

  • Randy Foye
  • Brian Cardinal

To the Wolves:

  • Eric Snow

A few things of note:

  • Brian Cardinal cannot be included in a package deal until 2 months after his trade to the Wolves.  This date will fall on or around August 26th. 
  • Rashad McCants could be substituted for Randy Foye.  I come down on the Shaddy side of things in the Shaddy v. Foye Death Match so I'd much rather see the Wolves move Foye. 

Why does this work?  Clevaland has about $30 mil in expiring contracts on its books this year.  It is hopelessly over the luxury mark with a pretty putrid non-Lebron core of Booby Gibson and JJ Hickson.  They need an off guard as well as someone who could help share ball handling duties with Gibson.  They also need someone cheap, as every dollar they bring in they have to pay double for. 

By taking on Foye and Cardinal, the Cavs will take a net gain of $3.4 mil against the luxury mark (Foye + Cardinal cost $1.7 mil more than Snow).  Why would they make this trade?  First, they get a young guard that could start right away and play significant minutes opposite Gibson, or whoever else they may bring (or keep) aboard to play point.  Second, Cardinal's deal comes off the books before Lebron would need to be re-signed, preserving their ability to operate in the 2010 free agency market.  Third, by adding Foye they reduce the number of gaps they need to fill by moving their expiring contracts in order to keep Lebron happy come playoff time.  Wally's $13 mil comes off the books after the season and the Cavs could be a pretty big mid-season trade player with that sort of expiring money to throw around.  Cardinal's deal would also give them an additional contract to make a move should Ilgauskas and Varejo stay with the squad in 2009.  That's another big year of expiring deals. 

This works for the Wolves because they would clear $10.2 mil off their salary before the 2009 free agent season (by swapping Shaddy for Foye, they'd clear $10.3 mil off the books).  They'd enter the 2009 free agent season with about $46.1 mil worth of contracts.  This is nearly $15 mil under the cap (it will change a bit depending on their draft picks). 

This deal is based on a couple of assumptions with the Wolves:

  1. Randy Foye is not the point guard of the future for the Wolves.  Sebastian Telfair will prove to be the better floor general (esp when surrounded by a high/low post and two 3 point shooters) and will eventually grab the most minutes at the point this year. 
  2. Randy Foye is not as good a 2 guard as is Rashad McCants.  Whether this means both of them start or come off the bench, Shaddy is younger, has more experience, is a more efficient scorer, and has better size.  You can read statistical comparisons of Shaddy and Foye here, here, and here.
  3. Eventually, the Wolves will have to draft another point/combo guard to pair with Bassy while McCants (or Foye) comes off the bench.  Don't forget that this club took OJ Mayo with their 1st pick and Fred Hoiberg came down to the draft party and told the fans that he was their guy.  How would that have worked out when Bassy proves to be the best point sometime in mid-December?  Then there would be a 3-way log jam at the off-guard spot. 

For the life of me, I'll never understand why Randy Foye is viewed as some sort of point-capable combo guard while Rashad McCants is not.  Seriously.  Why not let Shaddy have a few minutes at the lead guard?  Wouldn't this force his hand as far as team play is concerned?  Shaddy is currently the only player on the Wolves that can get his own shot.  He has the 2nd highest usage rate on the squad.  He rebounds just as well as Foye and he gets to the line just as much.  His PPR and ast/to rates are hard to judge because they play different positions. 

By making a Cardinal-based trade with Foye (or McCants), the Wolves would accomplish several beneficial things:

  1. They would clear massive amounts of cap space for a 2009 free agency run.
  2. They would clear enough cap space to sign Pekovic.
  3. They would shorten the number of young players on the bench, allowing for easier evaluation of up-and-coming talent during the 2008 season (it's currently a cluster-you-know-what at the 2/3).

Finally, while I'm personally a Shaddy guy in terms of the Shaddy v Foye death match, I believe this trade works (for both teams) with McCants as the 2nd player.  Cleveland could definitely use an off-guard that can get his own shot and shoot 40% from 3.  Mike Brown could probably even get Shaddy to play a little d.  I mention this because I don't want folks to get caught up on the "holy crap, he's saying the Wolves should trade Foye" aspect of this post.  Like their games, Foye and Shaddy offer pretty much the same thing towards this deal: a resolved roster for the Wolves and roughly $3 1/2 mil off the books. 

Ideally, this trade would allow the Wolves to move on the best available 3 in next year's free agency (hopefully Deng or Smith; possibly Granger or Hedo) while maintaining their draft assets for a run at one of the best available combo/point/off-guards: Jennings, Evans, Rubio, Curry, Derozan, or Calathes.  They also clear enough cap space to re-sign any players that may deserve it or to bring Pekovic over with a nice deal in 2010. As is always the case with Mega Deal Mondays (On a Wednesday), here's our ideal 2010 lineup:

  1. Bassy/(Curry/Calathes)
  2. Miller/McCants/(Curry/Calathes)/Brewer
  3. (2009 free agent 3)/Gomes/Brewer
  4. Jefferson/Love
  5. Pekovic/Jefferson/Love

The Wolves have an opportunity to be major players in next year's free agency market, which sould be a bit slow as each and every other team in the league prepares for the mess in 2010.  By deciding the victor of the Shaddy v. Foye Death Match, and by attaching the loser to a deal including Cardinal for an 2008 expiring contract, they can accomplish this goal.  They also benefit by trimming down the roster in 2008 to a more managable level.  The final benefit of the trade is that by waiting 2 months after Cardinal was moved to the Wolves, the FO should have a pretty decent idea of who will be available in the 2009 free agency market.  Will Deng be off the scene?  Will Smith sign a 1 year tender?  If it looks like the 2009 free agent season will be void of the kind of talent they want, they simply don't make the trade and wait another year. 

Until later.

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Comments

Display:

This is...

...a really interesting, provocative post. A bit counter-intuitive from my standpoint, but all the more interesting for being so.

A couple of comments. You ask why not McCants at PG rather than Foye. For me it’s an intuitive thing, I can’t see McCants playing the point any more than I could see Carmelo Anthony or Ricky Davis playing it. (I mention these guys because McCants reminds me of them; I could be wrong.) He just doesn’t seem like that kind of player to me. Foye, on the other hand, does. Not that he’ll be some kind of magic man, but he seems to have more of a point guard mentality, I think, than McCants. For me, McCants is a 2 whose game tends toward the 3…while Foye is a 2 whose game tends toward the 1. I’m sure the FO is hoping he turns into Joe Dumars.

Also, re: Snow: I notice that you mention him at the very beginning of your post, then not again. Is this because he’d only be around for a year, when his salary would presumably come off the books? What about this year, do you see him fitting at all? I loved him with the Sixers, thought he was the perfect backcourt partner for Iverson, but not sure for the Wolves…plus he can’t have much left in the tank?

Anyways I hate to end on what for you must seem like a pessimistic note, but I can’t see it happening – the FO has basically gone all in with Foye I think (not so with McCants). This might change next summer if Foye has a terrible year, but not before, in my opinion.

by plinytheelder on Jul 30, 2008 1:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Funny that you mention Ricky Davis, he’s exactly the kind of bonehead I think Mccants is

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 30, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks...

...as for Snow: from what I’ve read, he has zero in the tank and he’d be good for the expiring salary.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 30, 2008 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like the general idea although..

Deng seems to be close to a deal with Chicago. I don’t know the other guys on the list all to well. Turkoglu for instance (for some reason Orlando isn’t televised much on Belgian TV). Though his numbers look nice and he would be a true veteran while the young core is in its prime, I like that. Pacers aren’t really popular here either so haven’t really seen Granger play .. I hear he’s good. I just hope we don’t end up with cap space and no interesting players.

Gonna read the deathmatch later but I just don’t like Shaddy. I think Foye can play better defense (numbers don’t back me up here, I know) and when I saw Foye play paint in Summer League last year, it looked like he had found his way. He knew EXACTLy when to pass and when to shoot, he organised, I’m still thinking he didn’t get 100% comfortable being thrown in halfway through the season.

Why I don’t think Shaddy can play defense, point guard or is a good teammate? Because I think he’s not smart. It all comes down to that. His off the court troubles, his ego-I-wanna-be-a-starter-even-though-I’m-getting-lots-of-mintues, his hogging the ball … it all comes down to him not being an intelligent guy and an intelligent person. He’s the one guy I’m not assured of that he’s not gonna do something stupid. With Telfair on the team that’s saying something.

Apart from that, looks great, wouldn’t have thought of it.

by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 30, 2008 1:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...

Although I can imagine the talk radio hysteria this would generate. I think the Wolves would need at least a second rounder or something coming back.

One step the Wolves are probably going to need to take eventually is a willingness to cut bait on some of their younger players, either for ineffectual play and/or big-picture roster/cap considerations (essentially what Philly did with Carney). Maybe it’s an overreaction to the years of recklessly burning draft picks in trades (or not having picks at all), but suddenly it’s as though this team is run by Twins or Wild execs with the growing-from-within sound bites.

Don’t get me wrong. Building a team with young players is a VERY welcome change of pace around here. A real breath of fresh air. But not all-or even most-of these guys are going to pan out. And even some of the ones who do (Craig Smith) might make more sense to use as bait than hoarding them just to hoard them.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that this is something I’ll be watching for over the next couple years: will they take a big-picture approach (something they’ve almost never done) and evaluate who’s a good fit and who’s better to move (or just cut bait on), or will they sign McCants and Foye and Brewer to long-term deals just because they drafted them and let the death match continue indefinantly while other aspects of the roster suffer? We’ll see.

As for the 2009 class, Danny Granger would be a fantastic fit for this team, btw. A non-star decent perimeter defender/shooter with legit SF size. Deng is better but will likely be more expensive and isn’t as good an outside shooter. Although Indy will probably keep Granger in the fold.

by jianfu on Jul 30, 2008 1:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent point about eventually....

...having to cut bait on some of these guys. There’s simply too many young players that have similar games to keep them all around. The question then becomes what do you do with them in the mean time: do you give them all playing time or do you pick one over the other? Carney v Brewer and Shaddy v Foye need to be straightened out. Here’s hoping that Smith was signed with a post-August 26th trade in mind.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 30, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, Man, what a PG rotation!

Following up on Pliny’s post, how great would it be to have your PG rotation be Bassy and Snow? I mean, what would we average next year in ppg for our pg spot? 10 points? 8?

Not that i’m knocking the idea. I think it’s an interesting strategy, with a couple of points:
1. I agree with everyone who points out that just because the wolves will have a lot of cap room in 2010 that they can be a player. Why is anyone going to want to come here unless they show real improvement in the next couple of years. Either way, they are going to have to overpay to get people here. So positioning yourself for 2009 is probably a good strategy.
2. However, you have to be convinced you can get the right player at the right position. And you’re probably going to have to overpay for him, because the PG rotation this year would lead you to something like 25-30 wins. Looks like Deng will be off the market. I’m guessing Smith will be too (though wouldn’t he be a great fit with an undersized 4 and 5?), so that leaves Granger and HT (of your list). Maybe you overpay for Granger, because hes young and has a lot left. HT, i’m not so sure.
3. Particularly given the PG rotation above, i think McCants is the likely choice to get traded, if someone is traded. Snow has NOTHING left. Without getting ito the Foye v. McCants thing (i vote “neither”) at least Foye has played the combo guard role.
4. On top of #3, we still have the fact that Foye is the Guy Who Got Traded for Brandon Roy. So I just don’t see the FO have the stones to dump him (remember, this isn’t a case like Donyell where they could blame the prior regime). Imagine the headlines if they traded him for an expiring contract. Better get something else included if you deal Foye.
5. Along the lines of #4, it’s a helluva lot easier to sell the “We traded McCants because he was a headcase and not a team player and oh by the way he and wasn’t part of our plans anyway” to the local populace.
6. Don’t forget that we’re not paying Bassy starting PG money. The front office clearly plans to start Foye at the PG, and I don’t think they will deal him before seeing that Bassy is the actual PG of the future. Which won’t happen until midseason at least (if at all). So this, to me, is much more of a trade deadline deal rather than an offseason deal. Unless it includes Mccants.

In short, if a deal like this happens, i think it happens with Shaddy. I think i’m in the camp of letting the deathmatch continue through midseason and then pull off a deal at the deadline. Maybe that destroys the trade value of whoever loses the deathmatch, but at least you get to see if one or the other benefits significantly from the addition of Love and Miller.

by Sterno on Jul 30, 2008 2:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Admittedly,

I think Foye is a no-go because he’s the Guy Who Got Traded for Brandon Roy. I think they could write it off as being a Hoiberg move and that they were trying to get past all of the KG-era decisions, but it would take some stones for them to move him.

One of my very first posts on Canis Hoopus (back on the old site) was about how to move the cap around for Josh Smith. I can’t remember the specifics but it was something along the lines of moving Ratliff for assets that could be moved for a S&T with Atlanta for Smith. Smith is the absolute perfect fit for this squad at the 3. From help defense to transition offense he’d be fantastic to have on this squad. I’m really hoping he signs a 1 year tender with Atlanta and hits the market as a URFA.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 30, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way, re: 2010:

I’m not as pessimistic about the possibility of attracting FAs as most seem to be. I think it all depends on what happens here in the next 2 years: if Jefferson, Love and Foye (or whoever) pan out, and the Wolves are looking like a strong young team, wouldn’t talented players want to come here for the chance to win? Maybe I’m wrong, but Toronto and Detroit are also pretty cold, seen as undesirable by some, and they seem to be doing fine with attracting players (e.g. Toronto was able to sign Kapono and Delfino, Calderon re-signed without even testing the waters, O’Neal is happy to be going there because he feels like they’ll win).

by plinytheelder on Jul 30, 2008 2:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I'm crazy--

—but is Foye’s value really this low, that you’re just hoping to package him with a deadweight contract and get an expiring deal back? Just to unjam a roster a bit?

I think Foye still has a good reputation for being a talented youngster in the league, and could at LEAST get a 1st round pick, maybe a few, or even an equally good but different type of youngster that the Wolves need more of.

I don’t think Foye is great, but he’s GOOD, and even if he is duplicated by McCants, he’s gotta have more value than this.

Is there something about him I’m missing? Is he a jerk?

McCants attitude and size for a SG seems to be the bigger problems to me, but what do I know. Maybe McCants can become a playmaker, but he seems like a pure scorer all the way, not able to be concerned with getting an offense going or getting his teammates involved. I think he thinks he is a star, where he is just Rashad McCants.

I’m glad you think highly enough of Bassy to make this sort of move, because I always hoped he’d find a home with a team that believed in him and let him grow, but I gotta think this is waaaay less value than you could get for Foye.

I dunno the front office’s opinion on this, it’s just my point of view.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jul 30, 2008 5:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think I'm undervaluing Foye...

...as much as I am acknowledging that Cardinal has a hard deal to move.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 30, 2008 5:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd love to ship off Foye...

to a far away place. Even though I would do your MDM trade, I think we could at least get something/someone of use back in the trade.

Also IMO Stephen Curry’s game isn’t going to translate well the to the NBA. He’s a 6’0” SG.

by roundhouse on Aug 1, 2008 1:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Curry...

....will be a very interesting test case. I think he’s one of those guys who can flat out play. He has some absolutely scary numbers:

eFG: 60.7%
Poss: 31.8%
ORtg: 121.2
TORate: 14.3
AstRate: 19.3
3fg: 162-369 .439

He can’t rebound for shit but those numbers are insane at any level. He’s one of the most perimeter-extreme efficient players I have ever, ever seen. His FTRate is pretty low (23) but he shoots a massive number of 3s while holding the ball a ton, scoring a ton of points/100 possessions and not turning the ball over. He’s going to be given the PG spot this year and it will be interesting to see just how well he can run the point and maintain some of his ridiculous efficiency numbers as well as his low TORate and + AstRate. The guy has one of the most developed jump shot games in recent college memory. It’s not like he’s just a 3 point specialist. He shoots 54% inside the line and without anything big in the paint. This means he’s getting his jumper off from mid-range and, having watched a few games with him, he appears to be able to do so off the dribble with both hands and in traffic. He’s an amazing, amazing player. There’s not too many guys with games built around a jumper like that anymore.

Calathes is another guy who just knows how to play. His numbers aren’t quite as good:

eFG: 49.6
ORtg: 111.2
Poss: 27.6
TORate: 18.8
ARate: 33.4

He’s a 36% shooter from 3 and he only racks up 46% from inside the arc. He makes up for it with amazing assist numbers and free throw numbers. He plays good, opportunistic defense and he can hit the glass on a level that Curry will never match. Plus, he’s a legit 6’5” and may grow some more (his brother was 6’9”). If you would tell me now that the Wolves could have a Curry/Calathes duo in the backcourt in 09 instead of Foye/McCants, I’d sign up for that in a second. A backcourt rotation of those 2 plus the Shaddy/Foye winner and Miller would be more than acceptable.

I can already tell you that I’m going to have a tough time next year if they bunch their picks for a guy like Evans if it looks like Curry and Calathes will go in the teens and they have both their own and Miami’s pick on the board.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Aug 1, 2008 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is Curry really that small? He’s listed at 6’3. In any case with him it’s as much about his quick release (just like his dad) as his accuracy – he, again like his dad, needs less space to get off his shot than anyone I’ve ever seen. It’s uncanny how quick his catch and shoot is. Which gives him all the more confidence, since he knows it’s very unlikely his shot will be blocked. Anyways I think he’ll be an excellent pro, either as an instant-offense guy off the bench, or as a ball-control starting point guard. If the latter I think he’ll do fine, he’s not a flashy passer but an extremely smart one.

Plus he singlehandedly destroyed Wisconsin, that moves him up at least 5-10 picks for me. :)

by plinytheelder on Aug 1, 2008 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He simply knows how to play...

...it’s pretty damn impressive, and, as you noted, his jump shot game is advanced well beyond the average college player’s level.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Aug 1, 2008 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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