Predictions Open Thread
While Hoopus slows down a bit (in congruence with NBA news), Wim has suggested a predictions discussion, which I wholeheartedly support. Feel free to add your own questions, but here are a couple to get us started:
- How many wins will the Wolves get this year?
- How will the Northwest Divsion standings look at the end of the season?
- How will Kevin Love finish in Rookie of the Year standings? (don't forget that Oden's in the running)
- Will Al Jefferson finally make the All-Star team?
- How many points per game for Foye and McCants? Assists per game for Foye and Telfair?
- What will the starting line-up look like by mid-season? End of the season?
- Who won't be on the team at the end of the season?
- What will the Western Conference playoff seeding be?
So go nuts. And remember, whether you're wrong or right, the Internet will remind you come next June.
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Fun idea...
1) 37 Wins. Will not flirt with a playoff birth, but will make a slight push in the last few weeks when other teams start tanking.
2) Standings:
1. Utah – 59-23
2. Portland – 55-27
3. Minnesota – 37-45
4. Denver – 35-47
5. Seattle – 28-54
3) ROY Standings
1. Greg Oden
2. Derrick Rose
3. Michael Beasley
4. Kevin Love
4) Al Jefferson is an All-Star reserve.
5) Foye averages 17 ppg 5 apg, McCants averages 15 ppg, Telfair averages 6 apg
6) Starting Lineups
Mid-Season – Telfair-Foye-Gomes-Love-Jefferson
End-Season – Telfair-Foye-Brewer-Love-Jefferson
7) Probably no trades, but McCants would be the first to go.
8) Western Playoff Picture
1. LA Lakers
2. Houston
3. Utah
4. New Orleans
5. Portland
6. San Antonio
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix
by Andy G on Aug 21, 2008 3:27 PM CDT 0 recs
yay!
1) 33 wins (which I think is good, would mimic or even be better than Portlands progress)
2)
Utah 55 wins
Portland 50 wins
Denver 35 wins
Minny 33 wins
OKC 29 wins (they’ll make a jump next year)
3)
1) Beasley (Miami will look good (not saying they’ll be good)
2) Oden
3) Love
4) Gallinari (gotta go with my euro buddy here since I don’t like Mayo one bit. He seems like a poor mans Kobe .. and I really don’t like the way Kobe plays.)
5) Rose (he needs some time because of being a PG)
4)
Jefferson in the Allstar team next year, not this year.
5)
Foye 14 ppg and 5 apg, Mccants 18 ppg, Telfair 9 apg, depending on if Foye plays more point or more sg.
6) Both midway and end of season .. though I’m not really believing there will be any kind of starting lineup. Witt is gonna test out all kinds of stuff for the full year.
Telfair
Foye
Miller
Love
Jefferson
7)
I’m guessing Mccants and Carney (+booth off course). Mccants will clash too much and even though Brew still won’t break through, Carney won’t either and they took just a flyer on Carney, they used a nr 7 pick on Brewer so Carney out.
8) (this is probably not correct since I’m not completely sure who’s in what division, so I’ll just rank the top 8 teams of the west in my mind :p)
1) Hornets
2) Spurs
3) Lakers
4) Jazz
5) Rockets
6) Blazers
7) Mavs
8) Wolves :p
by Wim (Belgium) on Aug 21, 2008 3:45 PM CDT 0 recs
Wolves begin with 12 losses, release Madsen, and immediately reel off 20 straight wins
by plinytheelder on Aug 21, 2008 8:30 PM CDT 0 recs
1. 34 wins. Well off the pace, but building.
2. Utah 56-26
Portland 53-29
Denver 46-36
Minnesota 34-48
OKC 25-57
3. (i) Oden
(ii) Westbrook
(iii) Beasley
(iv) Gallinari
(v) Rose
(vi) Love
4. No.
5. Foye 14.6ppg 4.5 apg
McCants 16.0ppg
Telfair 8.4ppg 8.0 apg
6. Mid season starters
Telfair – Foye – Miller – Love – Jefferson
End of season
Foye – Brewer – Gomes – Jefferson – Collins
May sound weird, but Kevin Love is young and I think fatigue will be an issue late in his first pro season. And I think Jefferson will appreciate having some defensive assistance in the front court.
7. I think Carney will get packaged with one of the first rounders up our sleeve. McCants a huge chance to be moved along.
8. West seeding
Lakers
Hornets
Rockets
Jazz
Spurs
Blazers
Phoenix
Mavericks
by Auswolf on Aug 22, 2008 5:24 AM CDT 0 recs
“Love is young and I think fatigue will be an issue late in his first pro season”
Good point
by Wim (Belgium) on
Aug 22, 2008 6:26 AM CDT
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I'm taking the bait...
1. Wolves get…
32 Wins. Wittman’s leash is getting appreciably shorter. After all the KG rumblings, we are back to where we were before he was traded, but with a much better cap situation, AND some draft choices.
2. Northwest Division standings:
Utah – 54-28
Portland – 50-32
Denver – 35-47
Minnesota – 32-50
Seattle – 28-54
3. I’m still not totally on the Love Boat. The Next White Hype will have a decent rookie season, Sid will be touting the fact that in 5 minute stretches of all games in the third quarter, he leads NBA rookies in scoring and rebounds. Jim Petersen will be telling us—again—how much we don’t know about the game of basketball. Love is 5th or 6th in the voting, which for the Wolves will be more than enough, and result in a new ad campaign for the 2009-10 season…“All We Need is Love”. Big Al gets pissed.
Oden (if healthy)
Rose
Beasley
Mayo
Westbrook/Love
Bayless
Hickson
Thompson
4. Nope. Big Al has to play full court defense, and the Wolves have to win more games before he’s an All Star. There’s too much talent in the West. Love makes it to the Rookie Game, though.
5. Foye’s in the mid teen’s with 4 assists per game.
McCants—hopefully traded at some point during the season—low teen’s coming off the bench, chafing at the sixth man role.
Telfair, depending on playing time will have 5-7 assists per game.
6. Mid season lineup:
Big Al
Love
Gomes
Miller
Foye
End of season: same.
Hopefully one of the goals this season will be for Wittman to establish and stick with a rotation. Since the Wolves are stubbornly holding on to the notion that either Jefferson or Love can play the 5, the rotation will be controversial in nature. By mid season—barring a trade—you’d think they would know what they have.
7. I would agree with Auswolf about Carney and McCants. Shaddy’s not going to be able to handle a bench role on a bad team. I would say Calvin Booth would be another candidate for dismissal.
8. West standings
LA
New Orleans
Rockets
Utah
San Antonio
Portland
Phoenix
Mavericks
by Peter W on Aug 22, 2008 7:24 AM CDT 0 recs
Oops..
I’m showing my disgust with Seattle/OKC, and the fact I copied the division list from Andy G’s post. I meant the OKC Bennetts instead of the Sonics. Sorry.
by Peter W on Aug 22, 2008 7:29 AM CDT 0 recs
my bad..
I had to check NBA.com to make sure I had the division down…Stern hasn’t gotten the site updated, I guess.
by Andy G on
Aug 22, 2008 11:12 AM CDT
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Thank god for layovers...
…which are just enough time to toss a list off:
1- 36 wins. With 8 games against Memphis and OKC and with a squad that should be able to win more than 4 game before the new year; added to a conference that has a weakening Phoenix, Dallas, Golden State; and a crappy Sacramento, the Wolves will have opportunities to win a fair amount of games this year. Portland is positioning itself for the most overrated team in the league. Last year, the Blazers went 15-22 from Feb 1st to the end of the year. The Wolves went 13-24. Portland is adding a guy who just had his knee taken apart, an unproven Spanish player who appears to be all arms, legs, and out of control in international ball, and an undersized combo guard who starred on one of the most under-achieving teams in college ball. Their best player just had his knee operated on again (he has played in 131 games in 2 years) and they have Steve Blake at the point. They have just as much young and unproven talent as the Wolves and they are adding even more new players. If Roy misses any time at the beginning of the year, it will further depress their record. I’m not buying the hype at all and I think all of these sites that have them finishing 5th or better in the West are insane.
2- Northwest Division Standings:
Utah: 60-22
Portland: 42-40
Wolves: 36-46
Denver: 30-52
OKC: 17-65
3- Rookie of the Year:
Beasley
Darrell Arthur
Kevin Love
Marreese Speights
Jason Thompson
Can you tell that I think this year’s rookie crop of guards are completely overrated? I’m betting that Mario Chalmers ends up with the most votes for a backcourt player after he ends the year as Miami’s starter. Beasley gets the nod by becoming Miami’s 2nd scoring option in his 1st year and by gathering a ton of rebounds on a squad that doesn’t rebound. Arthur surprises everyone by being the only inside scoring presence (and rebound demon) on a team filled with perimeter dandies. K-Love wears down near the end of the year but he goes 12-8 with 4-5 assists per game and it’s simply too much to ignore. Speights and Thompson work their way into key roles a’la Landry from last year. Rose breaks down about 35-40 games into the season after being unable to really run the point and Mayo and Gay clash over who gets to take 20 shots a game somewhere in mid-January.
4- Big Al does not make the All Star game. He will deserve to, but who will he be placed on the roster in front of: Melo, Duncan, Boozer, Dirk, or Amare?
5- Points and assists:
Foye: 16.2 ppg
McCants: 15.4 ppg
Bassy will win the starting point position in mid-December and will average between 7-8 assists per game.
6- Mid-season lineup:
Bassy
Foye
Miller
Love
Jefferson
7- End-season lineup:
Foye
Miller
Josh Smith
Love
Jefferson
Minny pulls of the sign and trade after Josh Smith burns all possible bridges during the season. They send Carney, McCants, 2 1sts, and the expiring contract of Collins to Atlanta for Smith. Oh wait, this is the Wolves. They will have Foye at the point the entire year with Brewer, Miller, Love, and Jefferson rounding out the starting 5 at the end.
8. West standings:
LA
Utah
San Antonio
New Orleans
Houston
Phoenix
Dallas
Clippers (seriously)
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Aug 22, 2008 8:14 AM CDT 0 recs
noooooo...
You stole my thunder on Portland while I was writing… I’m stealing your Clippers in the 8th seed as a penalty.
by Pants_ on
Aug 22, 2008 9:03 AM CDT
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Hey SNP....
You should post something like this in the forums. I would but I don’t want to totally rip off Wyn’s idea. Just a thought.
by College Wolf on Aug 22, 2008 8:16 AM CDT 0 recs
Ha! You mean totally rip off Hollinger's idea??? :)
Heheh.
I’m waiting for this years version of this: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp07/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=TimberwolvesPreview0708
He misfired on some teams but was dead on on most of them:
“That said, some people are wondering if this team could be historically bad, but I don’t see them in that category”, and he predicted 22 wins.
So I wanted to get our predictions in to see what Hollinger predicts and see if we can beat “the expert” :D.
by Wim (Belgium) on
Aug 22, 2008 1:37 PM CDT
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1. 33 wins …hot start… lul in the middle and hot end (similar to last year except they actually finish out more of the games at the beginning). I’m factoring in an expected 10 games of injury time for Al… during which they go 1-9.
2.
1. Utah – 58-24
2. Denver – 45-37
3. Portland – 42-40 – it is so obvious they will make the jump I guessing something will get in the way.
4. Minnesota – 33-49
5. Seattle – 31-51
3.
Beasley
someone not in the top 10 picks
Love
Oden
Westbrook
(no OJ or Rose in sight)
4. Yes.
5. Foye 17 ppg, McCants 13 ppg, Foye 4.5 apg, Telfair 4 apg
6.
6- Mid-season lineup:
Foye
Miller
Gomes
Love
Jefferson
End-season lineup:
Telfair
McCants
Miller
Craig Smith – Love’s body runs out of gas
Jefferson
7. McCants either plays his way into the starting lineup or he pouts his way off the team.
8. West standings
LA
Utah
Rockets
New Orleans
San Antonio
Phoenix
Denver
Clippers
by Pants_ on Aug 22, 2008 8:28 AM CDT 0 recs
My 2 cents
Wins – 35
Standings – Utah, Portland, Wolves, Denver, OKC
ROY – Oden, Beasley, Mayo, Love – not to imply the trade was bad, I just think OJ will get more opportunities to score
AJ for All-Star – He’ll deserve to, but probably not, because Duncan, Nowitzki and Amare would be on the team before he would.
pts for Randy and Rashad – 30/game (16 Randy, 14 Rashad)
assists for Randy and Sebastian – 12/game (7 Randy, 5 Sebastian)
Starting lineup – I hope it’s Randy, Miller, Gomes, AJ and Collins, because I like AJ at the 4 more than the 5 – Rashad, Love, Telfair and Brewer for the 9 man rotation. I like the Rhino, but he’s redundant with Love and AJ, so he’s the choice to depart during the season
Western Conf Playoffs
- Lakers
- Jazz
- Hornets
- Spurs
- Suns
- Rockets
- Blazers
- Mavericks
by MSA on Aug 22, 2008 8:30 AM CDT 0 recs
Predictions
1) 37 wins.
2) Utah, Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City
3) Love will finish 3rd, behind Greg Oden and Michael Beasley. He might very well play better than Oden, however.
4) Jefferson will be selected as an injury alternate to the All-Star game.
5) 15 ppg for Foye, 23 ppg for McCants (contract year). 5 apg for Foye, 5 apg for Telfair (Foy will have more turnovers, though).
6) Starting – Foye/McCants/Brewer/Love/Jefferson, as the team will probably want to showcase their young talent on opening night (I predict that this will switch by the end of week 1). By the end of the season, probably Foye/McCants/Miller/Love/Jefferson or Telfair/Foye/Miller/Love/Jefferson, depending on whether the Wolves keep McCants or not (which they should).
7) Most likely Carney and Booth, maybe McCants if they get a good offer. And Cardinal if they can find a sucker somewhere.
8) 1. Lakers
2. Hornets.
3. Jazz
4. Rockets
5. Spurs
6. Suns
7. Trailblazers
8. Mavericks
by McCleak on Aug 22, 2008 11:33 AM CDT 0 recs
Brewer needs to go
If Brewer does improve greatly, he should not be seeing any minutes. Based on my analysis, he did more to hurt the team last year than anyone else. There’s more team and player analysis on nbagauntlet.com
by mindfeck on Aug 22, 2008 1:02 PM CDT 0 recs
1. 39
2. Utah, Denver, Minnesota, Portland, Oklahoma City
3. 2nd, because of extra playing time
4. Coach’s selection
5. Foye 16 pts, McCants 19, Foye 5 assists, Telfair 5
6. Foye, Miller, Love, Gomes, Jefferson – Telfair, Brewer, Love, Miller, Jefferson
7. Gomes
8. Lakers
Spurs
Rockets
Hornets
Jazz
Mavs
Suns
Sacramento
This will be Brewer’s breakout year.
by TMiss on Aug 22, 2008 6:22 PM CDT 0 recs
No Guts No Glory
1) 45 wins (8th seed)
2) Utah, Minnesota, Portland, Oklahoma City, Denver,
3) Love ROY
4) Jefferson will be selected
7) Wittman COY
OR
1) 20 wins
2) Utah, Portland, Oklahoma City, Denver, Minnesota
3) Love sucks
4) Jefferson suffers season ending injury in october
7) Wittman Fired
8) McHale gets contract extension and pay raise
by DR_JPK on Aug 22, 2008 8:04 PM CDT 0 recs
My Guesses
(1) 25 wins
(2) 13th place in the West ahead of Oklahoma and Memphis.
(3) Kevin Love will finish 3rd behind Oden and Beasley. He has a shot at the 2nd spot but Beasley’s higher profile and raw stats will likely out-do him.
The Gallinari mentions above are good, hadn’t considered him, he could make a real run at this, perhaps Gallinari to steal in third ahead of Love.
(4) Al Jefferson won’t make the All-Star team
(5) Foye and McCants around 13-15ppg
Foye and Telfair around 4apg
(6) Lineup – Telfair, Foye, Miller, Love, Al …. McCants and Brewer are possibilities to replace Telfair to give a different lineup. Gomes to be a sub.
(7) No idea on possible trades
(8) Lakers, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz, Spurs, Suns, Blazers …. Mavs for eight seed.
by Dave W on Aug 24, 2008 8:54 AM CDT 0 recs
Thanks to everyone for making the guesses...
…we’ll have to have a follow-up post on them at the end of the season.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Aug 24, 2008 9:53 AM CDT 0 recs
My belated guess
1) Admittedly, this is probably a stupid theory, but what the heck.
With Ellis going down for 3-4 months, I have these teams finishing worse than the wolves:
OKC, Mem, LAC, SAC, GS.
That puts us 10th in the conference. Last year, Portland was 10th in the conference with a 41-41 record. The Kings were 11th, at 38-44.
Better way to look at it may be for the whole league. I’d put the following eastern conference teams behind us:
NJ, Chi, Cha, Mil, NY.
That puts us as the 11th worst team in the league. Last year Indy had the 11th worst record, at 36-46. Since I think Indy has a better coach than us, i’m going with 34-48. 4th in the division.
2) 10th in the West (see who we finish ahead of above)
3) Beasley wins the ROY. No one is going into a better situation, and Oden will not be an offensive powerhouse, which will hurt him in the ROY voting. If Love stays healthy, he finishes in the top 5
4) AJ won’t be an all-star — too much depth in the WC frontcourt, if everyone’s healthy
5. Foye averages 18 (shooting 42). McCants averages 16 (shooting 42 from 3 and 45% overall); Foye averages 6 assists/telfair averages 6 as well
6) lineup: Foye, Miller, Gomes, Love, AJ; ending lineup: Foye, Brewer, Miller, Gomes AJ (assuming Wit is around, I think he gets wedded to the smallball look)
7) I don’t think anyone gets traded during the year — unless they’ve given up on Brewer and they want to sell high. Not many trades in the NBA mid-year, and with McCants’ coming of his contract, the only thing the TW can move is an expiring contract
8) NO, LA , SA, UT, Houston, Phx, Den, Por
My addition: 9) Why no prediction on if/when Wit gets fired? And who replaces him? I’m thinking he gets fired Jan 8. Looking at the schedule, the Wolves have a BRUTAL December. 16 games in 31 days. Then they have a stretch of “winnable” games in early Jan — GS, @Chi, @mem, OKC. Assuming that stretch doesn’t go well, after the OKC game (a back-to-back), they have a couple of days before two more home games that week. A perfect time for the interim coach to install his “system”. Our next non-interim coach will be: Tim Floyd (with the Mayor as GM). Just kidding. Probably whoever Nate McMillian’s stop assistant is. Either that or Avery Johnson.
by Sterno on Aug 28, 2008 12:05 PM CDT 0 recs













