The Gauntlet Thrown: Telfair the Worst?
by wyn on Sep 16, 2008 12:21 AM CDT
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PrintNote: Just so everyone knows, I have no beef with Ziller. We've been chatting behind the scenes about this one and it's no more than a friendly fan disagreement. Plus, he's a great blogger and leader for the NBA blogging community. If you really want to take it to him, find ways to make Beno look bad. But please, for the love of God, leave Kevin Martin alone. We won't win that one.
In all the brouhaha over Shaun Livingston having workouts in Chicago visited by the Wolves, Heat and Blazers, Tom Ziller said something over at FanHouse that he retracted rather quickly (but not before I, and a couple other commenters disagreed with varying voracity):
Minny seems to be putting on the press, though, which is no brainer for a team rolling with Sebastian Telfair (one of the worst players in the league last season) and Randy Foye (as two-guard as they come) at the point.
The retraction came in this form:
In a recent post about Shaun Livingston, I tossed out a casual line which called Sebastian Telfair "one of the worst players in the league last season." This claim was made without research and is completely, 100% wrong. There were much worst players in the NBA last season. Ask Clippers fans. Ask Heat fans. Ask Knicks fans.
There you go, bygones are bygones; no more trouble. Right? Wrong.
There are only 31 starting point guards in the league any given moment. An elite class, if you will. The same goes for NBA starters: it's a limited group of the best ballers in the world. And it is my opinion that last season, Bassy Telfair was the worst.
So, we can all agree that Bassy was not one of the worst players in the league last season. But, it's now time for us Timberwolves faithful to prove him to not be the worst regular starter of last season. Despite the fact that changing the assertion from worst in the league to worst of the starters is a huge jump, let's see what we can do.
Ben Wallace, Tim Thomas and Jamaal Tinsley have all been offered up as competition for Bassy at the bottom of the barrel. But, while looking at that list of four, do you get a "one of these things is not like the other" feeling? You should, because Wallace, Thomas and Tinsley are all aging, broken down vets who are either currently or have been ridiculously overpaid. If this discussion is based solely on ability, feel free to throw this aspect out. But I have a hard time believing people would completely separate that from their evaluations.
We'll set the bar for a "regular starter" somewhat high at 41+ games started and 24+ mpg averaged last regular season. That's starting at least half of the games and playing half of the minutes per game, on average.
Here are the players who started more than 41 games and averaged more than 24 mpg last year, with a PER worse than Telfair (who started 51 games and averaged 32.2 minutes):
- Quentin Richardson
- Jeff Green
- Bruce Bowen
So, by these measurements, Telfair is indeed pretty far down there. That much, I can admit. And yes, last year he continued to have a tough time shooting and finishing.
The good news is, Telfair is not likely to be our starter this year. The Wolves have one of the most up-in-the-air rotations in the league with their mix of youth and injuries, but I think it's pretty safe to say that Randy Foye, for better or worse, will be starting. Moreover, Mike Miller and Kevin Love are likely to get their share of facilitating the offense (which should consist mostly of getting the ball to Al Jefferson).
But there are still a few reasons why I'm very happy Telfair was re-signed this offseason:
- Telfair's 3.2 assist-to-turnover ratio was 10th best in the league amongst qualified players.
- This past year in Minnesota was the 3rd offense Telfair's been asked to run in the last three years. If you don't think that will negatively affect the growth of a young point guard, you're incorrect.
- Not only was it a new system for Telfair, but there were only 4 players on the team he'd played with before.
- He's dropped his TO/36min every year of his career and last year his AST/36min was a career-high.
So, is Telfair one of the worst players in the league? Of course not. Of the 135 players who started more than half the season and averaged more than half the minutes each game (of which 28 were point guards), Telfair does indeed rank in the bottom 5 in PER. But that list is packed with All-Stars, borderline All-Stars and players with far better teammates than Telfair had last year.
Worst of the best ballers in the world for our backup point-guard? I'll take it.
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Considering how awful the Wolves were last year...
and the fact that at times he was the only healthy PG on the roster the first of the season, I was happy to have him. Sure, Bassy could use a lot of improvement as a finisher, but he was re-signed reasonably, and considering who else is available, it’s ridiculous to single him out. Now, If he were making Marko Jaric money, that would be different. And, it’s a shame we couldn’t pry Rondo out of Ainge’s cold, executive hands. If the Wolves have another in-the-20’s-win season, it won’t be Telfair’s fault, it will be the lack of defense and a failure to develop any offensive variety and consistency beyond Jefferson, and possibly Miller. That means the McHale draft choices—Foye, Love, Brewer, McCants—are primary keys to success this year. Sebastian was a surprise and welcome addition to the club, considering how poorly he played for the Blazers and Celtics.
Isn’t he saying Telfair was the worst of the 31 starting PG’s? Not worst of all starting players?
One way or another, no doubt in my mind Bassy will show him how wrong he is.
Toss-up I think
I was going off of the proximity of these two statements and the use of “And”:
The same goes for NBA starters: it’s a limited group of the best ballers in the world. And it is my opinion that last season, Bassy Telfair was the worst.
Fair and logical next question...
… Unfortunately, I don’t think he rates very highly as a starting PG. I left the numbers on my home computer, but of the 28 guys I found in the group of starting 41+ games and averaging 24+ minutes, Telfair was close to the bottom.
It's a good thing...
he is the backup PG. It is pretty lame to declare a backup PG who was pressed into duty because of injury one of the worst starters in the league. I’d like Ziller to name for me a backup PG who would be the top 20 PG’s in the league IF declared the starter.
That's a good question.
More apples to apples.
Like I said, I’m at work and my numbers are at home, but I’ll take a look later.
Where I'd Rank Him
Let’s see, who’d be on my list as worse starting point guards …
- I don’t like Mike Bibby. I think his defense is awful, the worst of all starting guards in the league, and his offense isn’t good enough to make up the difference.
- Denver start Anthony Carter who is also worse.
Debatable Decisions
- One could make a case against Luke Ridnour, and it’s close enough, but I think I’d take Ridnour ahead of Telfair.
- I’m a Mario Chalmers believer so I’ll take Chalmers ahead of Telfair but that’s debatable.
- I’d normally take a Telfair ahead of a Mo Williams but Mo is an a great situation now where his lack of skills as a floor general doesn’t really matter (because of Bron) so that’s hit or miss. I thought Mo did a lot of damage to Milwaukee’s offense and defense. Could go either way depending on whether you separate him from his team when evaluating him.
- Earl Watson is a tough call. Perhaps Telfair ahead of Watson. Not sure what to make of Westbrook yet, long term I definitely take Westbrook.
- Udrih is another close call that could go either way.
Okay so that’s two worse and five others who are somewhat close calls and are debatable decisions.
I think I’d rank Telfair 3rd worst of starting point guards but there’s a decent bit of wiggle room there for Telfair to move up.
Anyone has the progress on his numbers? I’m pretty sure he got much better to the end of the season.
He was hurt...
for the end of the season stretch.
Blazer fan here
and i used to be on the Telfair band wagon. but the guy was more worried about what he was going to be wearing to the club than working on his jumpshot. That just doesn’t fly in Portland (anymore).
Woof
by Charles Barkley McLovin on Sep 16, 2008 12:50 PM CDT reply actions
hehe k, I ment to the end of his playing stint ^^.
He seems to have changed blazer fan, granted, people rarely change but he at least says he has never put in so much work as he has now.
I might completely swing and miss but I feel he saw what happend to Marbury and decided he doesn’t wanna end up like that..
He seems smart enough
Just to put my 2 cents in...
…he’s 4-5% on his jumper from being a top 10 point in this league. From PPR to ast-r he was top 15 last year and the thing that killed him was an inability to finish in the lane. He can take a page from the Tony Parker playbook and completely give up the three and that will help out a bit, but he does need to improve his finishing ability. If he does that, and if the Wolves’ new acquisitions can provide scoring outlets, then I think you will see him as the starting point by mid-season, and a rather good one at that.
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4-5% can be misleading...
when you’re talking about Telfair. If he and Mike Miller stood 20 feet from the hoop and each took 100 jumpers, Miller would probably make 85 and Telfair would make 55. But obviously, their in-game shooting percentages are closer, as they reflect shot selection and defensive attention given to them. Telfair is never guarded out-court and still passes up most open shots. His percentage is not reflective of his shooting ability. Sebastian just needs to shoot well-enough that defenses actually guard him (or hell, THINK about him) 20+ feet from the hoop. He has not been able to do that yet. If and when he does, everything will seem easier for our super-quick point guard.
Personally I think improving his jumper from 20 feet out is only the 2nd step, not really the priority. The first should be the finishing in the lane. It’s true that improving his long/mid range jumper will make the rest of his game easier but the fact is that jump shooting is not really part of his game. Finishing in the lane is, like snp said, what killed him last year. It’s what would make him from being a halfway decent backup to a good starting point. Jump shooting would only make a great pg out of a good one.. Imho
Also, finishing in the lane will improve his confidence greatly which will automatically give a good boost to his jumper.
by Wim (Belgium) on Sep 18, 2008 5:26 AM CDT up reply actions
fair point..
because Bassy needs to improve on both his shooting and finishing in the paint. I just think that shooting gets first priority, since it’s 4 on 5 when a perimeter player can’t knock down open shots. If he were able to draw some attention out-court, he might find that the lane is much less crowded when he does choose to drive. Especially with Miller, McCants and Foye all shooting over 40% from downtown.
I guess it wasn't clear...
…in the first post, but the 4-5% has to come with a combo of taking less 3s and making more shots from in the lane. A little runner would be nice.
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I question whether he can be a real finisher in the lane à la Tony Parker – very rare for a guy his size to be able to do this. Maybe a runner is the answer, or maybe I’m wrong, but I think he has to go into the lane thinking “pass first pass first pass first” every time. Obviously you have to be able to score once in a while to keep the defence honest…guess we’ll see.
Re: his shot: in my view the mechanics are fine. Really good even, his form is really nice. If he’s putting the time in like he says, I think at some point the 18-20 footer will become automatic, as long as the team and coaching staff don’t lose confidence in him.
by plinytheelder on Sep 18, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Parker does have a rare skill—he stays low to the ground and yet can finish among the trees in the paint.
I disagree about Telfair’s mechanics, though. The ball doesn’t get set properly in his shooting motion—his wrist remains flat and his elbow flares out. Here are a couple of pics to show what I mean:
http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/PHO/bk_AAHS105_8x10~Sebastian-Telfair-Posters.jpg
http://www.nancarrow-webdesk.com/warehouse/storage2/2007-w39/img.08480_t.jpg
Hoiberg supposedly worked with he and Brewer on shooting, this summer. I’m hoping they worked on form and didn’t just crank up shots.
I don’t know, the first one looks fine to me, in the 2nd one I agree that his hand should be flatter – i.e. flexed back a bit more – but that too seems fine in the first picture. Anyways I’m glad they were working out with Hoiberg, there’s nothing like getting tips from a fantastic shooter. But I think that while Brewer and Telfair can both make minor adjustments, the basic shooting form is pretty solid for each of them. Maybe I’m missing something, I’ll check it out when the season rolls around.
by plinytheelder on Sep 18, 2008 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I’ve always thought his shot looked a little strange and I think it’s the wrist issue—the ball doesn’t set up in his fingers when his wrist is flat. It’s like a tilted catapult or something, instead of a “hand in the cookie jar”. Plenty of great shooters (Reggie Miller & Wally Szcerbiak) have the elbow out thing—I just think that, given Bassy’s struggles and unusual form, it might be worth listening to Hoiberg’s tips, which would probably try to get the ball out in front of him and set properly in his hand. Who knows. He’s probably a good enough athlete to make off-season adjustments and improve his shooting.
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