K-Love hits a 17 PER
The big men are making their way to the top of Hollinger's player ratings. Marreese Speights, Kevin Love, Greg Oden, JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, and Mark Gasol take up 7 out of the top 10 rookie spots. O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose have fallen out of the top-10 and guys like Kosta Koufos and J.J. Hickson are moving up. This year's draft is shaping up to populate front courts around the league with more than serviceable players for years to come.
As for the guards, Russell Westbrook is still hanging strong and any talk of the ROY race being a 1 or 2 man affair should be thrown out the window at this point. It's wide open with several big men and Westbrook outperforming the 2 early front runners by a wide margin over the last month and change.
about 3 years ago
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In another shocking T'Wolves stat . . .
ESPN’s playoff projections have them at a 2.9% chance to get into the post-season, and only a 2.1% chance to win the Lottery.
Sad what winning will do . . .
wow...
…that’s pretty crazy.
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Remember when we used to envision a Rubio/Foye backcourt?
Those were the days…
My new hope is that Ricky Rubio declares for the draft, but then word leaks out that he might have difficulty coming over to America right away. Subsequently his draft stock plummets…
Leaving the Wolves there to scoop him up with the 11th pick! (acquired via the trade of Miami and Boston’s first rounders)
That'd be nice...
Alternatively, I’m hoping Tyreke Evans continues his under-the-radar act and yet still declares “too early,” allowing the Wolves to snap him up in the mid first. (If his game continues to evolve, which it should, you know he’d be Top-5 pick material the following year.) Even if he doesn’t improve his offense, he’d still make a nifty rotational guard to mix in with Foye and Bassy, as the dude’s an absolute menace on defense.
That, or you pray Ty Lawson can become the next Jameer Nelson. Or Evan Turner can become Andre Iguodola. Or Vernardo can be the frontcourt gazelle they need…
The point is I think you’re right: they keep this up, they’re not getting their own pick this year. And this year, I’d be fine with that. Particularly considering they’ll still have a pick or two to make us all pay attention on draft night, and their BIG acquisition will be Trevor Ariza, anyway. ;)
ROY
These guards are dropping like flies and the big men are coming on. I think Oden will take ROY and Love will be in the top 3 or so…. Rose will be there too in the end.
I think..
….Beasley comes on strong too.
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Why is Rose Tanking?
Granted, this comes from following box scores and not the more in depth stats that get thrown around this site – But Rose’s numbers started tanking the day Ben Gordon started getting serious minutes. Rose had a number of eye popping stat sheets early in the year, now they all look very mundane. Low scoring, low assists, bad asst/to ratios. But I tell you what, Gordon is putting up big time points.
I hope this team considers that when Ben Gordon becomes the only attainable free agent this off-season. He is a talented version of Ricky Davis who can score, but will do so at the expense of everyone around him.
Maybe I can add your quote...
…to my post comparing Gordon to Mayo. ;) I don’t watch enough Bulls games to say one way or the other but there definitely has been a change from the first few times I saw Rose play. He didn’t look like the attack-the-rim sort of guy I saw earlier. Maybe the long season is finally kicking in. Perhaps his knees are bothering him more than he let on in the preseason. Maybe it’s the coaching. Whatever it is, he looked like a different player last night. You could still see the amazing potential but something was missing.
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Sorry, you're all wrong
Derrick Rose is the Rookie of the Year, and the race is over. Vinnie del Negro said so.
Along with others posting during last night’s game, I’ve never been more confident that the Wolves would come back from a huge deficit to win the game. And it’s not because of my current freak-out over how great the team is playing. It was the body language and discombobulation of the Bulls team. Sooooo much talent, especially around the perimeter. But it’s being wasted by a coach who is in way over his head.
Before the draft, this figured to be a big man’s draft, and thus far it looks to be the case.
I think this will go down as a very solid draft, potentially better than the more-hyped 2007 draft. That one was top heavy with Oden and Durant, but 2008 will be deeper, I think. All the guys who were supposed to do well have been (I guess Beasley’s started a bit slow out of the blocks, but I agree he’ll get better), and several guys with questions—such as Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook—have been better than expected…
big man
Its not really a big mans draft- only Lopez, Speights and Love are actually getting playing time. You cant really mention Oden because he was a #1 pick and Gasol is a seasoned pro. I think the 2008 has NBA quality starters drafted from 1-10. Compare this to 2007 where I think alot of career back ups were drafted high (Brewer, Conley etc.)
Well, we’ll have to wait and see, obviously. My “big man draft” comment was based off the pre-draft analysis of guys like John Hollinger and Dave Berri/WoW. They typically were very high on Beasley (though he may end up on the wing), Kevin Love, and Speights, with several other guys (Hibbert, Richard Hendrix, Hickson) rated as solid. They also pegged several lotto guards (Mayo, Westbrook, Bayless) as overrated.
It’s clearly too early to judge, but while they’ve underestimated on a couple of the guards thus far (mayo and westbrook) that’s been made up for early on by better-than-expected play from guys like Lopez. But we’ll see.
As for playing time, while that is decent barometer for how well a guy’s doing, it’s also at times subject to quirkiness from teams. Obviously, it’s easier to get burn on thinner teams. There’s also some teams where you have to wonder what’s going on. (cough Golden State Warriors… cough cough Brendan Wright getting 16 mpg and decent prospect Richard Hendrix in the D-League cough.)
PER
PER is the last thing people look at when considering ROY. Theres a reason why guards never have good PERs. Its a measurement designed for bigmen and the all time leaders show this. To have a good PER as a guard you have to average 30ppg on 50% shooting (jordan) or average a near tripple double (Lebron/Jordan/big O)
I can see what you're saying..
….with the first point but the one about good guards not having a good PER is simply false. It’s not a measurement designed for big men and the all time leaders show a stat that balances out the four factors and more often than not elite big men have better rebounding percentages than elite perimeter players. Devin Harris, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups, Jameer Nelson, Chris Paul, D-Wade, Manu, Jason Terry, Jose Calderon, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Durrant….these are all guys with upper level PERs. Guys like Russell Westbrook and Rose will probably end up there as well. There are also numerous swingmen up near the top: your Bryants, Grangers, Carters and AK47s.
I’m not arguing that PER is the be-all-end-all of stats. It’s just something that we have kept tabs on since the beginning of the year as a season of near 25 mpg, 16-18 PER and maintaining his rebound rates = a successful season for Love. I get that PER isn’t near the top of the list for ROY voting.
You can read the formula for PER over at Basketball Reference. It’s a pretty decent indicator of a players’ overall worth. It has some ups and downs but it’s definitely not “designed for bigmen”. It’s designed to weigh important factors like offensive rebounding, shooting percentage, etc. It’s readjusted every year to account for 15 being average. I think it is especially handy for grouping players into tiers. Right now the top 3 are LBJ, Paul, and Wade. The top 10 (minus an injured Boozer) are Howard, Duncan, Bryant, Roy, Dirk, Bosh, and Harris. I think that’s pretty fair. It has little to do with bigs and littles.
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I agree...
I think PER is pretty fair, overall. I think individual Ortg and Drtg are interesting, too, although probably more flawed.
Win Score is probably the most biased towards bigs. They actually adjust that one for position to kind of balance it out.
Dave Berri loves him some rebounding..
….and if pressed to pick a favorite stat, that would be it. I think Win Scores and Win Shares are they best way to go. KG is probably the best living example of how those stats work.
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I agree...
Once you use the position-adjusted Win Scores (aka PAWS), I agree that and Win Shares (an extension of the Ortg/Drtg, basically) give the best overall picture. I sometimes think some defensively challenged guys can still accumulate a decent PER…
Case in point:
Big Al and Amare.
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