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Trade Watch Suggestions

With the trade deadline approaching, I figure it would behoove us to look at moves the Wolves could conceivably make in order to improve this team.  Now, the caveat with these is that I don't think the Wolves should necessarily look at something for this season.  It would take a rather larger miracle for the Wolves to make the postseason, and they'd probably get waxed in the first round anyway.  But they could make some moves to get things set for the next seaon.

Star-divide

As has been discussed here several times, the two weakest positions for the Wolves right now are point guard and small forward.  Now, contrary to that sentence, I will say that I think the Wolves have solid depth at those two positions.  Gomes, Telfair, Brewer, and Telfair are all very fine second-string options for those positions.  I would go further and say the only depth the Wolves are missing is a 7' swatter, as you can add Mike Miller, Randy Foye at point, and Craig Smith at the 4 as very capable backups.  So the Wolves need to get some solid starters.  But how?

First, let's look at the point guards.  The first target on the list is Mike Conley.  He's been having a rough year, as Mayo has emerged as the young face of the Grizzlies, and he's being made redundant by the mangement and/or OJ Mayo's insistence that the #3 pick plays the point.  On top of that, his numbers have been dropping this year.  But those are misleading numbers, and hiding the sucess he's been having.  First, the sucess; Conly is hitting 39% of his threes, takes a very solid 4 points per 100 possessions off opponents' offense, he's a plus rebounder, and has a very good ast:to ratio.  If he drives to the hoop a bit more, and steps out on the long twos, his efg% should improve nicely and he should see the line a lot more.  Now, the problems is that his points and assists have dropped like a rock this year.  That's the opposite of what you want to see in a point guard, but there is a very simple reason for this: OJ Mayo.

For those that remember, I spent a lot of time early in the season banging on about how OJ Mayo got his numbers through and absurdly high number of touches.  But taking it from a Wolves perspective, I never considered where he was getting those numbers.  It turns out it was coming at Conley's expense.  Conley currently has a usage % (that's the percentage of plays that occur on the court the player is involved in, for the non-uber nerds in the crowd) of 16.0.  Let me read off some known names that are between 15.5 and 16.5, and you tell me what they have in common: Delonte West. Trevor Ariza. Corey Brewer. Wally Szczerbiak. Sasha Vujacic. Al Horford. Sean Marks. Vladimir Radmanovic. Brandon Rush.  Figure out what they all have in common?  That's right, they're not point guards, nor are the on the court to create offense for others.  There are three other point guards in that range.  Two (Mario Chalmers and Chris Quinn) of them play for Miami, whose use of Dwayne Wade seems to be Memphis' template for using Mayo, and the other (Derek Fischer) plays in the triangle offense, which has no need for a traditional point.  And to further prove the Mayo Affect, Conley has played 805 of his minutes with him.  I think there's little doubt that Conley will improve, possibly vastly and quickly, should he be put on a team that uses point guards in a more traditional way.  Two additional points on Conley.  First, we know that he does very well when playing with a low-post beast.  Can you think of anyone like that on the Wolves' roster?  Second, he's some whose trade value is actually very easy to figure out.  First, Milwaukee scuttled a deal that would have sent out Ramon Sessions and Joe Alexander, then Memphis killed a trade for Travis Outlaw.  So why don't the Wolves offer Craig Smith, Rashad McCants, and a first rounder (ideally Boston's, but the lesser of the Utah/Miami set, if needed) to bring in a young, solid defending, woefully misused point guard?

Next up is Raymond Felton.  The argument for him is a lot simpler.  First he's going to get moved by the start of next season.  Second he's pretty much a super-charged Bassy (bad shooting, good ball movement, workable defense).  Along with Conley, he would probably benefit from a change of scenery.  And it would be a lot of fun to see Larry Brown deal with Rashad McCants for half a season.  The downside to this idea is that Felton is a restricted free agent after this season, which could result in limiting the Wolves future cap room.  Additionally, he's 24, and while points take longer to mature, I like where Conley is at 21 a lot more.  The upside is that it would probably cost the Wolves a lot less, and not damage that depth I was bragging about two paragraphs ago.  Considering how hot Charlotte is to drop him, I see McCants, Booth, and the Celtics pick as being sufficient to get it done.  But if the Wolves do like him, there's no reason they can't spend some money on him in the offseason, as I imagine Charlotte wouldn't match any contract, no matter how reasonable for the team.

Now, the small forwards.  This seems to be much more difficult, as there don't seem to be any truly quality, young SFs in the discount bin at the moment.  Additionally, I'm starting to think that you won't be able to get your hands on a young FA small forward for blood or money this offseason.  In this environment, nere's the best I can find:  Gerald Wallace, Brandan Wright, and Luol Deng (seriously).

The one that Wolves fans seem to like the most is Gerald Wallace.  I like him too, but the only question is what the cost would be for the Wolves.  While I don't think getting rid of one or two of the draft picks is necessarily bad, this trade would seem to be between two teams looking for similar things.  Both are young teams looking to rebuild, and as such I imagine Charlotte would hope to get a young player back.  But is there really any youth that we should throw to the non-wolves at this point?  Besides McCants, who is pretty much just an expiring contract at this point?

The Brendan Wright situation is interesting.   He's a solid rebounding, plus defending, good scoring small forward sophomore who seems to already be in Nellie's doghouse.  He seems to be like the type of guy who the Wolves need, an athletic, fast jump shooter/ball control freak.  In the past I've mentioned that I love Al's ability to not turn the ball over, and Wright is the exact same with the 11th lowest turnover rate in the league (second in SFs).  I don't know why Nellie doesn't like him and I don't care.  He would be a good fit, and could probably be had for McCants and pick, if he's truly as far out with Nellie as he seems to be.  As an aside, I think Golden State is the one place McCants could redeem himself, as he seems tailor-made for Nellieball.  The big caveat with Wright is that he only plays 16 minutes a game, and I have no idea how well he would hold up getting 30 minutes a game.  But he's only 21, and I have to think that even if increased minutes resulted in decreased play for this season, he'd figure it out in fairly short order.

Now people might think I'm crazy, but I'm fairly positive that Luol Deng is on the move this summer.  There are several interlocking reasons why.  First, this Chicago team needs to be blown up.  Everyone on it is underperforming, and they have dont' have a truly top guy like the the Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, Lakers, or ever the Wolves have.  This is a team that needs a change.  Also, in 2010 we're going to be having the summer of LeBron/Bosh/Wade.  Now, one of the big players is going to be New York.  Despite being an awful team, they get respect for being a massive sports market.  But why would you sign with New York, when you can sign with Chicago and get almost as much press on a much better team, as well as inherit the land of Jordan?  The reason would be money.  Right now the Bulls are way over the cap, but that is a lot easier to remedy than it looks.  If they can move Hinrich (probable), Nocioni (maybe), and Deng (definite if they want to try), and combine that with the Larry Hughes expiration date, they will have around $30 million on the books in 2010, which gives them more than enough room to sign a max free agent.  It probably a pipe dream, and couldn't happen until the BYC is removed from Deng (which should happen this offseaon), but I wouldn't be suprised to see Deng on the move within a year.

 

In any case, those are the trades I would like the Wolves to pursue.  What do people think of them?  And who else should they look at?

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Will kill for Brendan Wright...

…he’s the big athletic guy who could come off the bench. He could also probably play some 3 with Big Al and the BIg Piranha. That would be interesting to see. The other spots could be filled in the draft and it would be hard to project any trades should they hit the jackpot or have a solid point land in their laps. Do not want Deng. He’s a Dukie and will break hearts if signed. Dukies can’t be trusted. I think Felton gets moved before the deadline. Guys like Felton and David Lee are going to walk this summer because they’re going to get offered contracts that their teams won’t want to match. They can’t just walk for nothing.

I’d love to see Wright on the Wolves. Smith, Shaddy, the Celtics pick….doesn’t matter.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 27, 2009 10:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Solid post

Conley is interesting. I think that he had already packed his bags for Portland before the Outlaw trade was scuttled. Since then, he’s either too distracted by dejection (and who could blame him?), or purposely dogging it so he can Walk Out of Memphis and over to Portland, to be reunited with Greg Odom and play for an exciting young team.

Your excellent work shows that maybe Mayo is a very good player who had a hot run before Christmas, and is settling back to Earth through increased attention from defenses, a new not-as-good-as-McHale coach, and regression to the mean. The fact that Love’s play and team success have increased greatly while Mayo’s play and team production have slipped thrills me so much that I won’t even mention it here.

I’ve beaten the drum for Felton before, but his pick-up in play has made him more desirable to a play-off team (Dallas? for Howard?) and more expensive for the Wolves to get. Plus, he’ll get some big money this summer, and I’d just as soon spend it elsewhere.

Wright’s the best bet, for both ease of acquring and potential. Plucking young, cheap players from completely dysfunctional teams is even better than building through the draft. Which, by the way, contains an abundance of point guard prospects.

by PoorDick on Jan 27, 2009 11:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

"Greg Odom"

Common man……

"Only dunk and go to the defense." Rudy Fernandez

by Sabonis4Ever on Jan 30, 2009 6:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

“First, we know that he does very well when playing with a low-post beast. Can you think of anyone like that on the Wolves’ roster?”

Forgot all about that, good point.

I totally agree on your “depth” take. We do need to improve our point guard and small forward but thats only the STARTING PG and STARTING SF spots. The rest of the minutes are more than adequatly taken care of.

I don’t really think any trades should be maybe before the trade deadline (except conley, see below) because with Miller, Smith and 4 first and 2 second rounders … that’s tailor made for a draft night trade … We do lose Mccants for trading but I somehow have a feeling nobody wants the guy for anything more than a toaster.

So…

I like your take in Conley. When you put it like you do it does sound like he could be a solid starter. Especially since he’s only 21. WoW. That’s 4 years younger than Foye… I also like that he offers something different than what both Foye and Telfair offer. I really gotta make a fanpost about the toolbox thing and then just link it whenever I’m saying I like it.
Conley is the only guy I’d trade for before the deadline.

Felton; don’t like. Why not? Because I think he’s not a start, not a good team. He’d be an excellent 6th man but we got plenty of those, only looking for really good starter and he isn’t one from my point of view.

Gerald Wallace: he’s the only SF right now that I would like. Keeping in mind that we have both Brewer and Carney (and that Brewer will take the minutes of Miller if we trade him) that means we need someone who is really a lot better than Carney. Wallace is the only one I think is worth our picks, miller, smith, etc… He fits right in.

Brandan Wright? I don’t get that one bit. What does he offer that’s so much better than what Carney offers? He’s a bit bigger but … that’s really all I can see? He’d be an excellent addition if we didn’t have Brewer/Carney/Gomes but with those guys in place I can’t see what we’d do with him.

Luol Deng: I can of like him. I’d love it if we could get him for something like Miller+Smith. He could be a starter and he could be better than Carney so IF he could be had he’s defenitly worth a look…

Good post!

Beater of the early Thabeet drum

by Wim (Belgium) on Jan 28, 2009 5:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

again forgot to add: Short of gerald wallace we give brewer the time to come back and claim the starting SF spot. Seeing how Foye emerged I invest my faith in the Brew.

Beater of the early Thabeet drum

by Wim (Belgium) on Jan 28, 2009 5:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just an update--

Wallace may have broken ribs and a collapsed lung from last night’s Lakers’ game (a Hornets win, at L.A.!). So he might be available cheaper, in exchange for someone who can contribute to the Bobcats push for the playoffs (Smith?).

I kind of like Deng, too. Youth plus character plus skills. But he seems a little brittle, and makes a lot of money to be laid up as often as he is. But Chicago will be in full blow-up mode, if not before the trade deadline, then this summer for sure. So perhaps he can be had for little in return.

Wright is almost the Anti-CarneyVore. Much longer, much younger, better rebounder, worse shooter. And will be cheaper over the coming years than Carney will be, especially considering the way Carney’s been playing lately. Don’t get me wrong—I’m very happy with Carney. Wright would seem more complementary if we get a scoring center or point in the draft/trade market. Carney would be better if we get a Swatter at the 5, and a Disher at the 1.

by PoorDick on Jan 28, 2009 8:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wallace....

Collapsed lung? Ouch.

by jianfu on Jan 29, 2009 7:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ugly

That was not a basketball play by Bynum.

If one of the Bobcats’ big men had done that to Kobe they would have been suspended for several games.

I can’t believe people aren’t talking about that foul.

by highpockets on Jan 29, 2009 10:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it was especially bad....

….because he was out of position and made up for it with an elbow. It’s one thing to be in position and put the hard foul on a guy because he’s been torching you and you have to show a little pride; it’s quite another to be out of position and try and make up for it with hackish BS.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 29, 2009 11:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ruling’s in; no suspension for Bynum.

by jianfu on Jan 30, 2009 6:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Conley

I remember hoping Conley would somehow slide to the Wolves in that 07 Draft. Obviously he hasn’t hit the ground running CP3 style, but he’s incredibly young, has promise, and most points face a steep learning curve.

I wouldn’t break the bank for him, but I’d love to have him in the mix if the price isn’t too much. There are some interesting PGs in the next draft, but if the Wolves catch up to the Bulls, Raptors, Bobcats, and Knicks of the world and lose their first pick (which is possible at this point, even with some potential rude awakenings coming up on the schedule), they’re the looking at having just 2 picks: the Heat’s (currently late teens to 20 or so) and Boston’s. Now, we’ve seen some decent-to-very-good points tumble to that point recently: Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Kyle Lowry. And maybe a guy like Ty Lawson will have a similar slide. But I’m not sure we can assume they’ll find a PG option in the draft just yet.

(BTW, I’m starting to warm up to Lawson, although the bust rate for guys his size is high. Does he do enough to make up for it? I’ve been comparing him against two similarly sized/shaped/skilled now playing: Jameer Nelson and Kyle Lowry. At the NCAA level, Lawson does everything as good or better than those two with one exception: rebounding. I’m trying to guess if that’s a red flag, not that big a deal, or perhaps a system thing…)

Also, speaking of Wolves trade assets, what do people think of Pekovic? I’m wondering is some of these teams who might be looking for some low post offense might be attracted with a Craig Smith/Pekovich package, with Smith giving points down low in the short term (with a limited ceiling) and Pekovic being a down-the-road prospect. What would people want/expect for such an offer? Noah? Or is that not enough? Thoughts?

by jianfu on Jan 28, 2009 7:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm hoping.

…that other teams really, really want Pekovic. Although, he’s a McHale baby so we’re probably stuck with him. Also, to answer Wim’s question about what Wright brings that Carney does not: wingspan. Lots of it. If the Wolves are going to be undersized up front, they’ll need some help at other positions.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 28, 2009 7:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm okay you got a point there … though I’d rather have the experience, the face that he’s already been here a little (chemistry) and that little corner three over Wright. Especially since we’d have to trade for Wright. .. but … solid point.

Beater of the early Thabeet drum

by Wim (Belgium) on Jan 28, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pekovic

It’s hard to gauge his value. Scouts love him; analysts love him (Hollinger’s pre-draft article indicated he sees Pekovic as a 19-20 PER guy in a couple years), so with that sort of potential, you’d think he might be one of the Wolves biggest trading chits (particularly since he largely replicates what Big Al brings to the table). OTOH, if he never comes over here, then obviously his value is zilch. So, what to do with him? Wait and see? Move his rights (along with maybe Smith) in a trade? That would be my preference, but I’m not on the payroll.

by jianfu on Jan 28, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pekovic

is someone I don’t think it’s really possible to rate properly in trading terms. It’s a situation where the risk and reward are so far apart it’s not something you can rate properly. On one hand, scouts and statisticians and Greek League fans love him. And he’s someone who, if you have his rights, would almost certainly be an all-star center in the Al Jefferson reward. The risk, on the other hand, is that you get nothing; Pekovic decides he likes to stay on his home continent and never comes over. So if you’re the Wolves, you want to make sure you get the reward for his potential. If you’re the other team, you want to give up very little in case he never arrives. So I doubt that he could be much more than a throw in for a trade.

One possibility is that Rubio may have issues with coming over. If that causes his stock to drop, the Wolves could maybe use Pekovic to move up and get an amazing point guard?

by McCleak on Jan 28, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You know...

off the top of my head, the only two “major” trades that I can think of where a team acquired draft rights of international players (e.g., a team acquiring an already-drafted player who continued to play in Europe after being picked; not a Dirk Nowitski situation) featured the Memphis Grizzlies. (Juan Carlos Navarro and Marc Gasol.)

Soooooo. Should the Grizzlies miss out on the Blake Griffen sweepstakes but still move up to the top 3, maybe the Wolves could swing another draft day deal…

by jianfu on Jan 29, 2009 7:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

All this talk

just really reinforces how extremely important the draft is. All the bad and/or mediocre picks through the years have put us in this position. And it is so hard to pluck good players from other teams. If we could somehow nab Wallace and draft a point guard who turns out to be the real deal, then I would say this is a playoff team next year. But that is the caveat. Hitting on the draft. The fact that there are going to be so many PG prospects worthy of 1st round picks is both good and bad. I would say 1 maybe 2 have a chance to make an impact in year one. And it isn’t always who you think it would be. That is why we can’t miss this year. I still like Curry at this point. I know the negatives but he does have the POTENTIAL to be an outstanding offensive point guard. And what a shot….

by wolfen on Jan 28, 2009 8:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Would that put us in the playoffs

… the PG’s for next year’s draft are young. Even if we hit on one they aren’t going to start. Does Wallace really upgrade SF that much? our offense has been clicking when we’ve been hitting 3’s. Wallace doesn’t hit 3’s. It seems like the Wolves right now have developed an offenese that can win in this league. They need to go after a good PG because there is zero depth there and Telfair isn’t a good enough scorer. If the Wolves are going to start a SF who isn’t a great 3-pt shooter it might as well be Brewer.

by Pants_ on Jan 30, 2009 9:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep to that.

I’m surprised T’Wolves haven’t been apparently more active in bringing in a replacement for Ollie. We’ve seen what the team looks like when Bassy is out, and it’s a demoralizing event in an otherwise pleasant run. True, they’re at least three years away from a championship run, so maybe they’ll just pick the best PG available in the draft and hope for the best.

I’m also warming to the idea a “low-hanging fruit philosophy” toward player acquisition: waiting to see what trades/the draft/FA brings for a 1-3-5 with little cost or friction, and then complimenting that player through the other methods.

by PoorDick on Jan 30, 2009 10:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so concerned about

Wallace’s 3 point prowess. He offers tough/gritty play, strength, athleticism, driving ability, scoring ability (consistent), and very good D. Please tell me you were kidding about Brewer. Again, nice player, but lets take off our homer glasses. What other team would he start for? None. I agree that a new PG wouldn’t start right away, but could start at some point. And if that player offered some good 3 pt shooting, both guards would supply that. I’m also for trying to snath Okur. He would be another 3 pt threat and would allow Al to move to his natural position. I also hope we give one of the up and coming PG’s from the NBA DL a shot at a 10 day contract. I can’t stand Ollie…

by wolfen on Feb 2, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying Brewer...

is as good as Wallace or anywhere near. But he is on the roster and cheap. He also didn’t get his chest caved in by Andrew Bynum. I don’t see us in the playoff with or without Wallace next year. Lets see what shakes out. I think players of Wallace’s caliber making the money he does can be had.

by Pants_ on Feb 3, 2009 7:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Miller, Miller, and Miller

Between Mike, Brad, and Andre all being discussed, I’m going to be surprised if some NBA team doesn’t trade for one Miller, and end up getting a different one than they thought they were getting.

And thankfully, this guy isn’t around to be bandied about as well:

by PoorDick on Jan 28, 2009 10:17 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wallace is in the Mold

of what the Wolves need but I wonder if he is good enough. Once you have a guy making 8+ million a year he better be your starter or it blows you cap. I’d rather have more flexibility in the next few years than lock in with Wallace

I have the same issue with Felton. He is probably better than Telfair but I don’t think he is WAY better. From a contract perspective you’d much rather have Telfair be supplanted by a draft pick.

In a year or two when the Wolves are legitimately in the playoff picture I think there will be Felton and Wallace’s to be had.

 I’d love a Conley trade though. He has upside and I think his game is fairly similar to Telfairs so the offense won’t have to change with him in. I think he’s a better shooter than Telfair.

by Pants_ on Jan 28, 2009 12:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Just reading about Portland's cap problems....

Miller, Collins and Booth (plus a first – perhaps Boston’s, hell let’s make it two)

for

Bayless, Outlaw and LaFrentz works………..

Would Portland be that stupid?

by Auswolf on Jan 31, 2009 5:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it...

…but maybe their GM wants to perform some type of penance for his earlier nonsense. ;)

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 6:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Would Portland be that stupid?"

In the past, yes. But not with this front office.

"Only dunk and go to the defense." Rudy Fernandez

by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 2, 2009 5:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a feeling...

they’ll be able to sign the guys they need to sign when push comes to shove. And they definitely won’t hand two young athletic players to the Wolves to make it happen.

by Pants_ on Feb 3, 2009 7:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gomes

With Bynum out for a while I wonder if western conf squads looking to match up with the Lakers “new” front line that features Odom at PF would be interested in someone like Ryan Gomes, who can play both the 3 and 4, and does a lot of the little things that playoff teams are looking for.

I like Gomes, know he’s a good member of the community, and realize his trade value probably isn’t at its peak right now, but if a good offer comes along I hope the front office will seriously consider it.

Possibilities?

by highpockets on Feb 3, 2009 10:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Base Year Compensation for Gomes...

makes it hard.

Did you have a team in mind?

by Auswolf on Feb 4, 2009 4:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gomes is GLUE

I know that it would be hard to turn down a younger, longer 3 if one were offered, but I think Gomes is a solid guy who helped offset Scowlin’ Al’s occasional petulance during the losing weeks and months. If the Spurs are to be the Wolves’ model in intangibles/culture (and I think they should be), Gomes and Love are two of the guys who can’t be peddled unless there’s an All-Star in the mix.

by PoorDick on Feb 4, 2009 9:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I really like Gomes too...

…and would hate to see him go. He’s in the James Posey mold and a guy you want coming off the bench.

The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 4, 2009 9:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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