Where Bottom Dwelling Happens
David Stern gets the game picture for last night's game. While we here at Hoopus are well aware that League Pass Broadband has been outsourced to Turner Sports, the content still has Mr. Stern's league's name on it and ultimately the quality control buck stops at his desk.
Last night's tilt between 2 of the worst teams in the league was unwatchable on LPB for an entire half because Turner Sports is, according to their customer support, unable to broadcast more than 10 games at once. At first I was told that this was a "technical" problem, but later learned that it had something to do with broadcast rights...which wasn't a problem when LAC/PHX went live and no one got pre-empted.
At the end of the day I was able to watch the entire game because I know where the illegal streams are and Turner Sports eventually got the product I paid for up and running for the 2nd half. I continue to make LPB an issue on this site because I find it beyond ridiculous that the NBA's on-line offering is so consumer-unfriendly. Barring any changes, I will not be buying their product next year and will instead watch illegal game feeds for free. I encourage you to do the same. I also encourage you to contact your state and federal legislators and ask them to support fan-friendly internet broadcast measures whenever their favorite team is looking for a new stadium with public funding. Note to the Vikings fans: the Wilfs shouldn't get a dime unless the state of Minnesota can get the NFL (and TV networks) to agree to allow Minnesota Vikings fans to watch each and every single Purple game on-line for zero cost. You want public funding for your facilities? Then f$&k TV contracts.
Getting around to last night's game, let me begin by saying that had the Wolves not won last night's tilt against a terrible West Coast team on the 2nd night of a B2B (the 1st of which they lost to OKC), it would have been as bad a loss as the Disaster in Dallas. Thankfully, the Wolves played something approaching consistent ball and they walked away with the victory against the awful Warriors.
Before we check the Four Factors, let's take a look at the keys to the game I wrote before the Memphis game:
- 25 3PA
- 25+ FTA
- 25+ minutes and 0 3s from Bassy
- 25+ minutes and no post-ups from Love (we want mid-range jumpers from the line)
- 95+ pace
- A FG% above 47%
- Significantly limiting Memphis' offensive rebounds
- No Cardinal
- No Madsen
- No Ollie
How did they perform? 13 threes, 39 FTAs, 25 minutes and 1 3PA from Bassy, 26 minutes and mid-range action from Love, a 101 pace, a 45% FG (their 1st win under 47% all year), Oreb dominance (on both ends of the court), 11 minutes from Cardinal, and 17 minutes from Ollie.
The Wolves were especially impressive on the offensive glass, limiting the Warriors to only 23% of their misses compared to collecting 37% of their own.
I think I'm going to amend the game keys to reflect the practical direction I see this team taking going forward. First, if Ollie and Cardinal are playing less than 20 minutes per game and their minutes are taken from Rashad McCants and Craig Smith, I have zero problem with them getting some burn. I will never, ever, ever get why The Artist Formerly Known As The Rhino was re-signed over the summer. It made zero sense. I also am of the belief that the Shaddy/Foye Death Match has been decided and that the services of Mr. McCants will not be retained following the end of this season. Kevin Love should get the majority of the minutes at the 4. Ryan Gomes and Cardinal should be his primary backups. Randy Foye should get the majority of the minutes at the 2. Kevin Ollie and Rodney Carney (in the place of Corey Brewer) should be his primary backups with Carney filling in at the 3 (again, it's Brewer's role) and Bassy taking the same position at the 1. Here is what I think the rotation should be like from here on out:
- Ollie (10)/Bassy (25)/Foye (13)
- Foye (20)/ Miller (20)/Carney (8)
- Gomes (25)/Miller (5)/Carney (18)
- Love (20)/Cardinal (15)/Gomes (13)
- Jefferson (35)/Love & Cardinal (13)
I get that Shaddy and Smith will get minutes here and there but I'm having less and less of a problem with Ollie and Cardinal's minutes than I am with those two getting any kind of burn. Carney also should be getting whatever minutes Brewer would be getting as he is as similar a player as the Wolves have to last year's top pick and they need to keep his seat warm.
Let's take a look at last night's Four Factors:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| GSW | 101.0 | 106.9 | 51.9% | 31.3 | 23.3 | 15.8 |
| MIN | 113.9 | 46.7% | 33.0 | 37.0 | 14.9 |
I'm not sure the Wolves are capable of playing too much better. The one thing that is concerning about the way they have been playing of late is that they are relying heavily on free throws to make up for their awful shooting. During the Disaster in Dallas the Wolves played well when they were making free throws; not so much when they weren't. Last night the Wolves scored .934 points per shot while the Warriors made 1.037 (points-per-shot = [points-FTM]/fga). The Wolves are currently the 28th ranked team in terms of 2FG% at .353. They rank 26th (.558) in inside FG%. They're not going to get to the line nearly 40 times per game every night. 32 games into the season, you can still point to a single stat as the biggest reason why the Wolves lose games: piss-poor shooting. They have an unadjusted FG% of 43.4%, good for 29th in the league. This is the primary reason for their 27th ranked point differential: -6.5.
Ho-hum. Let's wrap this up with a few bullet points:
- Kevin Love should start making instructional videos for rebounding. If you want to show a young player how to position themselves for rebounds, watch Mr. Love. It's amazing what you can do if you keep your hands up.
- Love needs to recover quicker when he shows on screens. I think I counted 3 times last night where he didn't recover to the help side after showing on a screen. Typically, when you are beat, someone else will rotate over and help. It's then your job to help the helper.
- It's nice to finally see Love get some play in the high post. Last night he made some mid-range shots from near the free throw line as well as a few entry passes from the high post. This is where he belongs. This is where he has belonged since the beginning of the year. No post ups. He's a Euro-style offensive big with a good ol' fashioned American banger streak on the boards. I'll say what I've said many, many times before: he'll end up being every bit as good a player as O.J. Mayo. He won't be the scorer but a double/double rebounding machine in the high post with the ability to space the floor with a mid-range jumper and interior passing skills is exactly what you want next to Big Al. This team has to win with offense. Most good teams do (more on that later).
- I'm really enjoying J-Pete lately. Last night Hanny made a doozy of a comment about the Wolves playing better defensively against better teams. He based this ridiculous statement on nothing more than net points. J-Pete then broke in with a comment about pace and how the teams Hanny was talking about play at a slower pace. Granted, he didn't get it all right (good teams are not synonymous with slower paces) but it was an excellent point and it provided depth beyond what you get with a typical TV announcer paid by the team.
Wrapping this thing up, your job today (aside from watching the Wolves play Derrick Rose and the Bulls) is to read Knickerblogger's take-down of the worst columnist in sports, Bill Simmons. Boston Bill represents the absolute worst in modern journalism: inside-the-beltway conventional wisdom/hackery dressed up with pop culture references for the masses. Here being one of the few times I can put my Religious Studies/Political Science degree to use, Simmons engages in what is known as "prooftexting". He uses decontextualized information as an appeal to authority in order to prove a self-manufactured point about this, that, or the other issue. In this case, it's one about Steve Nash and Mike D'Antoni. The problem here (as with other examples of prooftexting) is that he doesn't seem to know the first thing about the context of the information/authority he is appealing to. He's a boob and his column is filled with nothing but boobery. Oh yeah, champions can win with offense.
Until later.
PS: For a Warriors perspective, head on over to our sister site, a Golden State of Mind.
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26 comments
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Comments
Love the post, I really like your rotation ideas and your words about Simmons…oh and what you said about Love in the high post. By the way how about that one-touch bounce pass, right at about mid-court, where he got a bounce pass from Foye, off of a steal I think, takes it with his right hand, and just flips it over to Miller on the run…wow. The kind of subtle thing that totally knocks defences off balance, in the open court, and this from a PF.
I like your bullet point about Love’s rotations too…and in this respect how about Cardinal? He has to have earned himself some minutes last night. I didn’t see the last few games, maybe he’s already been playing. But there was that one great defensive possession where he came over to help on Biedrins and altered his shot…then about 10 seconds later rotated to the corner to make a guy miss a 3. I know he’s not great and isn’t going to play a ton, but if guys like Love and Carney can just learn a bit from what he’s doing on D that would be great.
I also wanted to say, it was fun watching Jefferson go to work on Biedrins – i.e. to watch a guy who relies almost completely on footwork and positioning beat out a guy who relies on athleticism. So many times Jefferson used angles and small spaces to get his shot off…about an inch over the outstretched fingers of Biedrins. It was like a clinic at a basketball camp. I know that better teams will show him different looks, but I think we forget sometimes how much he’s improved his fundamental post play (on offence at least) over, say, the last year.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 9:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Cardinal...
…is reminding me of why I liked the guy a few years ago. He’s an absolute bastard out there when healthy.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's kind of like a Madsen
who actually knows how to play. ;)
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good column...
… but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves on Love. He has one good game, and you proclaim that he’s going to end up being at least as good as Mayo. That’s almost as bad as Reusse proclaiming that Love will be a bust after one bad game. The fact is that the evidence is very mixed, and so far almost any other observer would say it suggests that Mayo will be the better player. We’re all hoping Love ends up being something special, but we already know that he can’t do a lot of things we thought he’d be able to do, and now we’ve lowered our expectations so far that when he has one good game, we get all excited. We used to do the same thing for Foye when he was a rookie, and look where that got us.
by Shogun on Jan 3, 2009 11:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The difference between Love and Foye
is that Love has a history (one-year, but still) of very, very good offensive play of the type that translates well to the pros. Foye’s track record was much, much more mixed in college when he came into the Association.
Also (and I plan to have a post on this later in the weekend) start thinking about Kevin Love’s offense in terms of Kevin Durant’s rookie season. And yes, there is more to it than just that they both underperformed/ing expectations.
by McCleak on Jan 3, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I've been saying Love is going to be every bit the player as Mayo for a while now...
…and I can’t really walk it back. It was even in the LA Times thing we did.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I.e...
…it’s not just one game that has me saying this. I’m glad they’re starting to use him more effectively, but I think he’s going to be a fantastically solid player.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just sensed some undue optimism about Love/Mayo...
… when Love finally had the kind of game that Mayo averages every night, at least in terms of scoring production (which I know you’ve lowered your expectations for to Love to continue justifying your support of the trade). Mayo will also net you four assists and a few boards (the latter of which he obviously isn’t as good at as Love). Love has a long way to go in shoring up some glaring deficiencies before we can say “he’ll end up being every bit as good a player as O.J. Mayo.” Mayo has an outside chance at being an all-star this year, and Love will be lucky to start in the rookie game during all-star weekend. Mayo averages 20 points while shooting over 45. Love is shooting 39. Mayo plays good defense. Love’s defense is questionable at best. And as we saw during the Memphis game, Mayo plays like a seasoned pro, whereas Love plays like a timid rookie. SnP, I respect what you do on this site and I don’t mean this to come off as a personal attack, but the evidence (so far) in favor of Mayo is incontrovertible. Arguing against it makes you sound like a homer. It’s ironic that only you, a few other readers of this blog, and the former GM you revile, Kevin McHale, are probably the only people left who would defend the statement that Love will be as good as Mayo. Again, I don’t mean this to sound personal, but I just found it bothersome that you leapt to defend the Love/Mayo comparison after Love had one of his only up-to-par games of the season. To be fair, I’ve railed on him after some of his bad ones, but in my defense there’ve been many more bad ones than good ones. Whether that’s because he hasn’t had his chance yet, he’s still learning, or he just isn’t that good is still uknown, but I guess the moral of the story for all of us is that it’s too early to know for sure what the future holds.
by Shogun on Jan 3, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he's that far away right now....
…I think Mayo has zero chance of being an All Star this year. He scores a lot of points but I see him taking a step or two back now that his 3P% is tumbling (.241 in his last 5; .345 in his last 10). Almost all of his boards are on the defensive end and as a guard playing that many minutes, he’s bound to stumble into whatever he’s getting under 5. I don’t think the evidence is incontrovertible. Here’s a similar take to mine.
Mayo can score and he is doing so with a fantastic 3P% for a rookie and an ungodly shooting percentage from 2. Both of these numbers are rapidly declining and he’s not doing the things he needs to do in order to fill the gap (get to the line, rebound more, increase assists).
I think I’ve been fairly consistent in my defense of Love throughout the year. Love is an elite rebounder in his rookie season a year removed from high school. His shooting % is far below what I believe it will end up being and he has been placed in a situation with a new coach and..well, the franchise is terrible. If he can get his adj FG% up near the league average for the 4 (around 48) we’re talking about an upper-level player if he can maintain the rebound and FT rates. Hell, an eFG of 45 puts him up in the double/double 16-18 PER range. His rebounding is that dominant. He’ll eventually figure out the bunnies, the Wolves will stabilize their bench, and he will be placed in a system that better caters to his strengths.
I’d still do the deal.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for responding...
We’ll be able to re-evaluate this after more games are played. For now, I guess we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this…again! ;)
by Shogun on Jan 3, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know we go round and round on Love and Mayo on a daily basis
But there’s one part of Mayo’s hagiography I cannot abide, and that is his defense. Check out his on/off court stats. Per 100 possessions the Grizzlies’ defense is 15 points WORSE with Mayo on the court. Opponents shoot 53% with him on the court vs. 47% when he’s off. And you can’t say it’s because he’s gambling, because he’s barely registering a steal per game. Mayo is not a good defender.
by McCleak on Jan 3, 2009 1:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad you brought this up
because for me it is just what you said it has been, a “hagiography,” if only because I haven’t seen Mayo play yet. I’m looking forward to seeing him this week, especially on the defensive end.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I should have stuck...
…to my original goal of not talking about the Mayo/Love thing until the midway point of the season;)
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
for what it’s worth, I agree with you on Love, I’d still make that trade today. I’m much less sure of myself than I was 2 months ago, but in the main I agree with how you think about this. I’m looking forward to seeing Mayo play next week so that I can have more to go on with regard to him.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Mayo/Love conversation did not exist...
I can’t imagine what else we’d be talking about. We’d be in part 4 of the 7 part series on Brian Cardinal’s male pattern baldness.
Actually, I hope we can still make that happen.
by Blakeley on Jan 3, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Heh. Good point.
These two are linked like Foye and Roy. But, I’m on record as liking this deal—the former will go down as the Iron Ranger’s greatest blunder.
The knock on Love was he had little upside. Given his slow start, I’m thinking he has a hell of an upside.
(I hate Cardinal for my own reasons. Aside from our waist size, he and I look a lot alike.)
Look here junior, don't you be so happy.
And for Heaven's sake, don't you be so sad.
by E-6 on Jan 3, 2009 9:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Roy was the unforgivable offense...
…I wish we had the blog around then. Roy was so obviously the superior player that…well, with Mayo the team got a bunch of good assets in return; they got Love (who will be a very good player for years to come), cap relief in the year that matters, and they probably ensured that they would be bad enough to keep their own 09 draft pick. With Roy, they got a million bucks and Foye. I can live with McCants over Granger. I can live with Brewer over Young. I get those picks. Roy made no sense in real time.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 4, 2009 9:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I couldn’t agree more with two of your points…
1. The debate about Love vs. Mayo will go on for years, but at the very least I think we can agree that the Wolves are significantly more fun to watch right now when Love is getting minutes WITH Al Jefferson. This game was the first game I can remember the Wolves making a conscious effort to play Love out in the High Post. I wonder what the change was? Hopefully we’ll see Love in the starting line-up tonight.
2. I’ve always been a big fan of Jim Pete, and I think it is pretty obvious that he is a victim of circumstance. I feel like once a game Jim Pete will start to go off and say one or two things that could be construed as “negative” and he’ll immediately be greeted by awkward silence by Hanny. A good example was the third quarter of the game vs. Dallas. Jim Pete kept saying in various forms “this is a tough match-up for Craig”or “Craig Smith cannot be out there right now” while Hanny just did his thing.
by Blakeley on Jan 3, 2009 11:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Solid point...
…about Hanny’s influence on J-Pete. I can’t stand Hanny and he has a tendency to be a black hole of homerism.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the thing about H. that I find strange
is that he gets, oh, I’m going to say 3 things wrong per game. E.g. someone will block the ball out of bounds and he’ll say “foul on so-and-so,” and then the guy doesn’t go to the line but a play or 2 later he’ll bring up the supposed foul. I think Petersen is too nice to correct him even though it’s obvious to everyone that he’s wrong. Nothing against the guy, but these are pretty elementary points, it makes me wonder how much he knows about the game.
Then again he has pretty good jokes sometimes, like the one where he said Love’s uncle drove to the game, he always takes his car cause he’s never been beat. Or maybe I just like really bad jokes.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The best Hanny joke..
Clearly the best Hanny joke is when he reminisces about watching Jim Peterson in college when he was just a young boy. Gets me every time.
by Blakeley on Jan 3, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hehe
yeah that does sound hilarious. Then again I also crack up whenever I hear the puffy shirt guy joke in that commercial.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A few things to add
First, I really like your rotation idea. Probably unlikely (I’ll hit that in a minute) but it seems solid. The main issue with it is Kevin Love. I was looking back at the number of minutes Love has had, and realized he’s actually getting more minutes per game than McCants, Foye, or Brewer ever did in their first two months. Say what you want to about the Wolves ability to develop talent (and I have plenty I can say on that), but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s just ingrained into the franchise that rookies don’t get heavy minutes early. That said, last night Love got an offensive board and took it up with both hands for the dunk. He needs to do that more often, and if he can find a way to get to the line as well, even better.
After the Memphis I said to people (though I can’t remember if I actually posted this) that I would have traded Mayo for Love straight up. Every day that passes I feel more and more confident in that assertion.
As for Carney, I actually think he needs to pay MORE attention to the defensive side of things. Tell him his minutes depend on perimeter D, and that he shouldn’t worry too much about the other side of the ball. His D is solid, and if he steps it up a bit the Wolves could have a potentially lethal stopper combo in Brewer and Carney for next season.
I have a soft spot for Cardinal, as a smart player who lost the back half of his career to some nasty knee injuries. But I worry that the more we see of him, the more teams can plan for what are essentially very limited abilities at this point. And unfortunately, the only way Smith is going to lost major minutes is by trade, I fear.
On the Bill Simmons issue I’m not sure if I can take a stand on either side of it. You’re absolutely right that he engages in prooftexting to a ridiculous degree in his columns. Conversely, I agree about 80% of his premises, even if I find his arguments horrid. Additionally, I find his pieces on individuals (see his Baylor article) pretty well-written, and I actually really enjoy the NBA Draft diaries.
And finally, I think you’re underestimating the Wolves offense. I’ll (hopefully) have more on this later in the weekend, but it could very well be that the Wolves are who we thought they were.
by McCleak on Jan 3, 2009 11:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think...
…Love is getting more minutes because he’s twice the player as McCants, Foye, or Brewer. As for Simmons, he reminds me of a sports version of Tom Friedman. He has an uncanny ability to dress up conventional nonsense in flowery language.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 3, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
BEAUTIFUL FRIEDMAN DISS!
I can’t stand that guy. No offence to anyone who likes him, he’s just not my cup of tea. McCleak I agree about Carney’s man D; the thing I think he can learn from Cardinal is rotations, I think he gets lost sometimes on D. It’s typical of a guy with that much athletic ability, he’s probably been able to make up for a lot at lower levels, but not in the NBA. I agree though, I’m really looking forward to seeing him and Brewer together for stretches next season…put them with Telfair or Foye and there could be a lot of really fun open court play.
by plinytheelder on Jan 3, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
NAH MAYN!
MAYN HOLD UP! I A DIE HARD TWOLVES FAN MAYN BUT MAYN YOU WRONG ABOUT SIMMONS MAYN! WHAT IS SO BAD ABOUT PROOFTEXTING? I DONT SEE THE BIG ISSUE WIT IT MAYN.
ALL I KNOW IS THAT WHILE I LOVE DIS HERE BLOG MAYN, SIMMONS WRITING MUCH MORE INTERESTING THAN YOUR BULLSHTI STATS AND FORMULAS.
IN CONCLUSION:
PROOFTEXTING > STAT BULLSHIT MAYN
ALSO WHY DIDN WE GET GERALD WALLACE MAYN HE WUZ THOWED MAYN!
by MAYNHOLUP on Jan 3, 2009 6:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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