To begin, I should make it clear that I'm not sold on Foye as a player; his defensive deficiencies and the fact that his field goal percentage has decreased in each of the past three years is troubling.  That being said, in the context of the greater NBA history of the development of guards of a similar size, it's way too early to make  extrapolations regarding his career.  Some players reach their peak early and then begin a descent into mediocrity or insignificance (ie. Joe Smith and Damon Stoudamire).  My point is that I don't have to be sold on Randy Foye and neither do you.  Moreover, as I'll go on to explain, even if we could or should make a judgement regarding what kind career Foye is going to have as a professional basketball player, considering the circumstances of his first three seasons, I think it'd be close to impossible to make that kind of decision.

Exhibit A, Joe Smith's rookie and sophomore season with the Golden State Warriors.  (Judging by the the current Mayo vs Love debate, by today's standards if fans were asked to predict the signficance that the the number 5 was going to have for Smith's career based upon the stastics from his first two seasons, they'd likely be projecting all star appearances or maybe the number of title rings he'd end up with, certainly not the number of draft picks that some ill-fated team with a sucker GM would initially be required to forfeit as David Stern's punishment for an under the table multi-million dollar deal that would entitle them to to a multiple year extension of Joe Smith's particular brand of mediocrity.)

Exhibit B, Damon Stoudamire's rookie and sophomore seasons with the Toronto Raptors.  Again, today's NBA fan would be advocating for the Mighty Mouse's early inclusion in to the hall of fame, where he'd be seated alongside a pantheon of great players whose performance define exemplary guard play during the game's first century; rarified air reserved for Zeke, Cousy, Magic, and the Big O.  I reckon their best guesses for  Stoudamire's career averages would be no where in the ballpark of 13 points and 6 assists per game.

Exhibit C., The case Gary Dwayne Payton (who closely resembles Foye in terms of physical stature and athletic ability); statistically speaking the first three years of the Glove's career are not at all that dissimilar from Foye's first three years in the NBA.  The biggest exceptions being in the categories of assists and steals.  Most notably, steals; out of the gate Payton displayed an apptitude for playing perimeter defense and was almost immediately one of the league's more prolific ballhawks who played such tight fitting defense that it earned him the knickname of "the glove."

It is possible, however, that Payton outperformed Foye in this area because his steal totals were bolstered by the presence of the Sonics strong interior defense (As a team, the Supersonics averaged more than 100 blocks per season during the first 3 years of Payton's career than the Timberwolves have during the beginning of Foye's career).  The strong interior defensive presence of the Sonics afforded Payton the room to take risks on defense and aquire more steals.  Similarly, between the 1990-1991 and 1992-1992 seasons, the Sonics roster was stocked with a veritable plethora of skilled offensive players and shooters in comparision to the offensive detritus that has filled the wolves roster during the beginning of Foye's career.  It is possible, though not probable, if Foye had been playing with better offensive players his assist totals would be very similar to those put up by Payton during his first three seasons.  I'll underscore this by pointing out the shooting percentages of the top eight rotation players from their teams during the first three years of their careers (excluding, of course, the field goal percentages of Payton and Foye); during this time none of the top eight players in the Sonic rotation shot less than .450 ( In the 92-93 season, Danna Barros shot .451 from the floor and in the 91-92 season, Eddie Johnson had a .459 fg percentage); conversely, during Foye's first three seasons the Wolves have had an astounding NINE players shoot less than .450 from the floor.  It's possible, if not probable, that Payton's play had quite a bit to do with the the Sonic's shooting efficiency.  However, when assessing Foye's three year assist totals, one should take caution to not underestimate the impact to whom he's been passing the ball have had on those totals.  The paucity of quality offensive performers on the Wolves' roster during Foye's first three seasons can be correlated to the higher scoring totals (and very likely, lower shooting percentage) that he's had  in comparison to third year Payton.

Gary Payton

Position: Guard
Height: 6-4    Weight: 180 lbs.

Per Game

Glossary ▪ Hide Partial Seasons ▪ CSV ▪ PRE ▪ Click column headers to sort

Randy Foye

Position: Guard
Height: 6-4    Weight: 210 lbs.

Payton's breakout season didn't occur until the 1994-1995 season during the fifth year of his career when he experienced a 4 point improvement in his scoring average.   During Payton's fifth season he also impoved his averages in all shooting categories, steals, assists, and rebounds.

If 1994-1995 can be considered as being Payton's "breakout" season, then the seven years that followed, beginning with the 95-96 season and ending the season before he left Seattle in 2001-2002, should be thought of as the "prime" seasons of his career.

When I think of Payton as a NBA player, I envision the guard who who threw half court alley-oop passes to Shawn Kemp against the Phoenix Suns during the 92-93 Western conference finals or the human hurricane that disrupted the Bulls passing lanes and collected bushels of steals during the 95-96 finals. The Payton I don't think of is the trash talking young frenetic guard whose combined first three season scoring average was only in the single digits.  If someone like Gary Payton didn't become Gary Payton until he entered into his fifth season, shouldn't we be a bit more patient with Randy Foye.  It's very likely that the impatience experienced by his detractors stems from the frequent comparisons that have been made to his contemporaries playing at the lead or off guard position who've enjoyed greater statistical success during their first three NBA seasons (the notable examples being Mayo, Rose, Williams, Paul, and  Roy.)

The pace at which a player develops is affected by the presence of several integral variables that are determinative factors of a player's intial success.  Integrants predictive of early success include, but are not limited to: the quality of the coaching the player has experienced both antecedent and during the initial stages of his pro career; the acumen of his team's front office at evaluating talent, discerning team needs, and its ability to make the appropriate player transactions; roster and coaching stability; lack of any injuries that might either limit his playing time (or number of games played) or inhibit/diminish the player's natural ability; the talent level and character displayed by his teammates; and the modeling and support offered to the player from his team's veteran leadership.  In nearly every one of these categories each of the aforementioned players has had a consequential advantage over Foye.  

I think I can safely assume the support from anyone who's spent the last three years observing (suffering?) the Kevin McHale constructed Minnesota Timberwolves, in my belief that Randy Foye has been bereft in near totality of any the factors that i've denoted as being conducive to a player's initial NBA success.  In his short professional career, Foye has existed, persisted, and resisted underneath the sun blighting and soul crushing weight of systemic failure enacted and perpetuated by Kevin McHale's incompetence.  Simply put, through an unwavering steadfast commitment to ineptitude at performing any and all tasks required of a competent NBA general manager (from coaching decisions to player transactions), Kevin McHale has willed into existence the perfect storm of suck during which Foye has struggled to begin his NBA career.   Shitty coaching and personnel decisions=arrested development of young players.

In conclusion, a player's fast start does not necessarily project to extended career greatness; nor does a player's slow start necessarily mean he's going to be a bust.  To fairly appraise the strengths, defecinicies, and potential for success of a young player there are a several variables that ought to be considered.   Moreover, it often takes a player at least five years of seasoning before they have their "breakout" season.  Therefore, if there is any chance that Foye might be able to achieve future greatness (or even consistent goodness) there has to be a significant improvement in his playing environment, which would require a wholesale change in Minnesota's front office.  As it stands, Kevin McHale has done Foye and the fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves a great disservice in not providing an adequate environment  to foster the development of its young players.  In reality McHale has done the exact opposite, in favor of good personnel decisions his decisions have led to instability in the coaching staff and he's made (at best) suspect player transactions.  The lack of continuity in the Wolves' coaching staff and the poor player transactions have been barriers to the development of the team's young players.  If Foye is going to improve, or for that matter any of the Wolves' young players are going to become successful NBA players, McHale and the entire front office has to go.  We really can't judge Randy Foye until he's free of McHale doing anything and everything he possible can to destroy Foye's career.

A final note for discussion... Has Glen Taylor done anything in the last decade that would suggest to Wolves' fans or players that they have any reason to be optimistic that he can make a competent personnel decision?   Coherent thought will be paramount in finding the sort of person that will be able to build and run a consistently comptetive basketball team.  There is little evidence to suggest that Taylor is capable of that kind of sound basketball decision making.  It isn't enough that Taylor clean house, first he's going to have to hire a reputable basketball person to actually hire the people who will make the coaching and player decisions.  To get out of this mess Taylor is going to have to hire someone to hire someone!!!