What type of barometer?
Let me go right away to something I wrote in the game thread:
I'm not really sure a win will be an indicator of success tonight; if the Wolves can keep it close with a pace near 93, an OE of 110 or above, ft/fg neutrality, and an OReb% above 30, it would be a tremendous development, as they will have taken McHale ball up against the best in the league without sacrificing key indicators of what has brought them success thus far in the new year. Sometimes other teams are simply better than the good guys.
Was that what happened last night? The numbers match:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| LA Lakers | 101.0 | 130.7 | 55.8% | 27.4 | 41.3 | 11.9 |
| Minnesota | 117.8 | 44.8% | 34.4 | 32.0 | 8.9 |
Despite the final score, the Wolves did some good things in this game. They scored on the best team in the league without shooting the ball well. They collected 32% of their misses. They had the lower TOr. They had a fantastic OE number. McHale ball, on offense, was not deterred last night and, if anything, there are a few reasons to believe it could have been improved upon. Despite my affection for his overall game, class, and character, Ryan Gomes is not a starting forward. Despite him being my favorite player on the squad, Sebastian Telfair needs help at the point. Despite him being...well, I have no nice words to dress up what I think about Craig Smith being in the starting lineup.
From the perspective of looking through the glass-half-full glasses, the Wolves kept things close for 3 quarters against the best team in basketball with 2-3 borderline starters, 44% shooting, and a roster full of at or below replacement value players. Getting along to the larger question at hand, was last night's tilt simply a matter of a massive talent gap or was it a direct indictment of small ball and all it stands for?
I myself come down heavily on the side of the Lakers simply being a superior team. I completely get where people are coming from when they complain about the Lakers' length and the inability of small ball to adequately address such a roster, but the Wolves play taller opponents all the time. The Lakers are the Lakers because Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (and Kobe Bryant) are upper, upper, upper level players. If you just watched the game and your first thought is "the Wolves need a center because they will never compete in a league with guys like Gasol, Bynum, and Dwight Howard", I submit to you that they need a shooting guard in a league with Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce and Kobe. They need a point guard in a league with Tony Parker, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. The Lakers are the Lakers because they're really, really, really good; not because they're really, really ,really long. Bynum is an athletic marvel with a surprising amount of polish to his game for a 21 year old. Bryant is one of the top 5 ballers on the planet. Gasol is top 20.
The Wolves....well, they start Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith. They start bench players against the best team in the NBA. They are starting what many consider a backup level point guard. Last night's result had very little to do with height.
Now, don't get me wrong; the Wolves are not a finished product and one of their primary concerns should be bringing aboard some players who can fill in the gaps a bit better than Smith and Gomes. A long an athletic big with positional flexibility would be a revelation on this squad. A real, honest-to-Pete small forward would be a thing of beauty. A 2nd point guard is beyond necessary. As good as the Wolves have been playing of late, they have exactly 3 players with an above average PER (15). The Lakers are on the verge of having 3 over 20. If there was an argument to be made about height, it is that the Wolves passed on Brook Lopez and/or a deal with the Nets. In their only match up, Lopez held his own but his team still lost to the squad with Kobe and Pau. Still, this is just as much of a personnel argument as a length one. As is this:
"We can score against one of the best teams in the league," McHale said. "We just have to figure out how we're going to defend them.
Part of the figuring out process is signing a free agent and doing well in the draft. This team simply does not have the talent to play the Lakers straight up.
All that being said, the Wolves we saw last night were a real basketball team. We watched a real, 4-quarter game where both opponents played hard the whole way through. This wasn't the type of game we Wolves fans were used to seeing way back in the days of Wittman. Randy Foye went for 27. Big Al went for 34. The Big Piranha went for 14/9 in just over 18 minutes of play before fouling out. And I don't want to hear any crap about him fouling out because of his (lack of) size. Love has one of the lowest big man foul rates in the league. He was still productive out there as a 20 year old rookie. Bynum is in his 4th year in the league. Gasol is in his 8th. The Lakers got any call they wanted last night. In other words, this is a blip, not a trend. Hell, it looked like Gasol apologized for one of the last fouls being called (the last 2 were garbage calls on good defense).
Moving forward, the Wolves need to come off this loss with a solid effort and consistent internals against Boston. If they can post a solid OE and rebounding rates against the toughest defense in the league, it will be a good thing. They need to drive the center of the lane, get to the line, and rebound, rebound, rebound.
Finally, I've put together a few stats from Basketball Prospectus' excellent new stats page.
| +/-/40 | PL | PS | dMult | WARP | |
| Big Piranha |
-2.5 | -91 | -9 | 0.775 | 3.5 |
| Big Al | -1.4 | 21 | -81 | 1.041 | 6.7 |
| Foye | -1.0 | 51 | -39 | 1.149 | 1.4 |
| Gomes | -4.9 | 11 | 2 | 1.041 | -0.4 |
| Bassy | 0.8 | 44 | 10 | 0.921 | -0.9 |
| Smith | -5.8 | -2 | -17 | 0.943 | 1.1 |
| Miller | -3.0 | -39 | 33 | 0.994 | 0.4 |
| Carney | -0.8 | 9 | 18 | 0.987 | 0.0 |
+/-/40: speaks for itself
"Points lost (PL) is an estimate of offensive efficiency, depending on the league-wide value of a possession. (PC-(oPOSS * league Pts/Poss)). Thus, the lower the points-lost total, the more efficient a player is. Zero is exactly average. Soon to be added to the table will be PC100, or points created per 100 possessions (PC / oPOSS * 100)."
"Points saved (PS) is the counterpart to points lost. Thus, it is an aggregate total reflecting a player's defensive efficiency as compared to league average. The higher the total, the better. Zero is exactly average. Soon to be added to the table will be PA100, or points allowed per 100 possessions (PA / dPOSS * 100)."
"...dMULT, or defensive multiplier. This measures how effectively a player has limited his counterparts' efficiency on a per-possession basis compared to their season rate. Thus, if Ron Artest has a dMULT of .950, that says Artest has held his counterparts to 95% of their normal production on a per possession basis."
WARP = Wins Above Replacement Player
Make of it what you will but I'd also like to point you in the direction of an NBA.com article about Bassy. I'd also like to point out that the Wolves don't exactly have a rotation filled with high WARP studs. In that sense, they really are playing small ball.
BTW: Trevor Ariza is how I imagine the Corey Brewer role being played. Fantastic defense, corner threes, amazing athleticism and a lot of flying all over the place. Here's hoping Brewer recovers enough to play the Ariza role and that the Wolves can bring in Marvin Williams in free agency to play the part of Ryan Gomes.
BTBTW: Even though Love fouled out, how nice was it to see a player on the team show that much disgust with losing? We haven't seen that sort of thing since the days of KG. And no, I'm not comparing the two; it's just nice to have that type of guy on the team.
BTBTBTW: Sweet Jesus I hope that Phil Jackson doesn't win another championship. A management guru should never replace a real basketball teacher as the man with the most NBA championships. The guy has figured out the key to dealing with the egos of upper level, highly paid modern athletes. Congratulations. Red coached ball.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that Jose Calderon missed a free throw against the Bucks, thus ending his consecutive free throw streak at 87...10 short of the record-holder and former Wolf Michael Williams.
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57 comments
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Comments
Lakers
simply have too much talent and when they shoot the ball as well as they did (6-13 from 3 for the BENCH!), every team in the NBA is going to lose. Period.
I was quite frustrated with Big Al and his defensive effort in the 2nd half. On more than a couple of occasions, his lack of hustle resulted in easy baskets / easy offensive rebounds. I even saw Love get a little pissed at him in Loves short 3rd quarter stint.
I got me to think about who the Twolves could get to serve as a mentor to Big Al. While normal this forum stays away from trades, I came up with a thought.
Miller + $4M + waive lottery protection for Marcus Camby
Salaries and contract length match perfectly. The Clippers need a big, shooter wing, who moves the ball. Clippers need cash after their ill advised shopping spree this year, hence the kicker. And, if you look at Hollinger’s projections, the T-wolves should finish higher than the 10 lottery protection, so the pick goes anyway. But it gives Clippers certainty of the pick for 2009 and that may be of great value to them.
Why do we do it? Even at 34, Camby is still a premiere post defender and rebounder. As well documented by Hollinger, bigs skills don’t decline as rapidly as guards skills do once they hit mid 30’s. I think he has 2-4 years left.
Camby has the reputation of being a “pro’s pro” with regards to work ethic and effort. He provides a veteran leadership quality that we don’t have. He would be an excellent 4/5 off set to Big Al and Love for the next couple of years – allowing us to fix the 1 & 2 position issues with our remaining assets.
Anyhow, enjoyed the game. Wish Carney would have made that dunk – my section was ready to explode!!
by Just A Fan on Jan 31, 2009 9:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Solid stuff..
….and yes, that would have been excellent had Carney made that dunk. Although, I was more impressed with the way he ran away from the field to get to that point. The guy is a blur.
I’m not sure I’d waive the lotto protection for Camby. This year’s draft is point guard heavy and the Wolves could get the player they need in the 7-10 range, which is still protected right now.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Projections
We are in 7th position at 16 wins with 6 East teams at 19/20. Plus, without Redd, Milwaukee is likely not to keep pace at 23 wins.
With the East playing each other more frequently and having to play Boston/Cleveland/Orlando, I am betting that several of those teams are going to struggle to get 15 more wins to get to 35. Meanwhile, after this current rush of top team games, our schedule is more favorable. I am thinking that 35-37 wins is certainly within reach.
My thoughts are somewhat supported by taking the average of best/worse records in Hollinger’s playoff predictions. If you do that right now, we would be exact 10 (not 7)
Based on that, I am thinking our likely pick is 9-12. MIami’s pick will likely be in the 16-20 range. In a draft deep in guards, with no clear dominant player, I think we get as sound a player at 9-12 as we get at 16-20.
by Just A Fan on Jan 31, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a combo..
…of Curry + the best available big with the Heat pick is about optimum at this point.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love Camby
from about 2001. Today, and as good as he still is, he’s going to be too old by the time this team is ready for a run at the top.
by PoorDick on Jan 31, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that is the issue
I agree – Camby may be too old by the time we are ready for a championship run.
To get to that level, we still need a 1 (starter or back up – juries out), a long, sharp shooting 2 and a legit 7’ 5 who plays great D. Plus, we need Foye, Love, Big Al, Tefair, Gomes and Brewer to continue to mature. Barring a catch lightning in the bottle event, I see us 2 -3 years away.
This is frankly too much to work on all at once. My idea is Camby eliminates the short term need for the 5. It will also accelerate Love and Big Al’s development.
That means resources can be focused on the procurement and development of the 1 and 2 positions. Hopefully, those positions solidify in the next 2 years allowing us to go back and refocus on 5 (if Camby does not age well) later. Maybe even with more assets in our possession to help get it.
Of course, ESPN quotes Dunleavy today as saying that none of his bigs are available. Hope that is just a smoke screen. I am hoping that Sterling goes back to his cheapstake ways and forces Camby (highest $ and oldest) out.
by Just A Fan on Jan 31, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Got it.
Respectfully, though, I’m not sure Camby makes Big Delta and Big Piranha any better. First, if he’s playing, he’s taking up minutes that Love and Jeff could use to get better. And if Camby is playing his rebounding/swatting/defensive game to the hilt, it may make Love and Jeff more complacent, rather than forcing them to get better on that half of the court.
I think DeAndre Jordan has a way better risk/reward cost/benefit take for the Wolves. I’d even go so far as to take back Ricky Davis’s contract if Jordan comes with.
The Wolves should be playing full-on against the play-off teams, and giving younger players more time against fellow cellar dwellers. Then the best five will get experience against superior competition, and we might even drop a few to some of the other lotto players (and not even have to start Mad Dog at the end of the season).
by PoorDick on Jan 31, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever happens,
I think you guys are bringing up some good points here – someone’s got to help Jefferson with team D. It’s like guys are cutting through the lane and he’s not even putting a hand up to deter the pass. Surely McHale must see this.
by plinytheelder on Jan 31, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree - would kill for DeAndre Jordan
but I can’t imagine the Clips even considering giving him up. Too young, too much upside and a WAY friendly salary # for Sterling.
At 35 minutes per game for both Love and Big Al, we still have 26 minutes for Camby. I think that is an advantage as a 34 yr old playing 26 minutes has a much better chance of lasting longer than a 34 yr old playing 35 minutes.
I really think Camby could motivate Big Al to play better defense.
by Just A Fan on Jan 31, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really see it with Camby either.
He’s 34, he misses lots of games to injuries (to me he looks like exactly the kind of guy who won’t age well – tall, thin, history of injuries), and he’ll be retiring by the time they get good. Plus I don’t think he’d be all that happy to come to MN, he was pissed when he was dealt to the Clippers.
I see your point about Jefferson, but I don’t think motivation is what he needs, I think he needs a teacher – his positioning is simply really bad on D. Seems to me that this is where not going to college hurts him – in HS he could just dominate with size. It seems to me that he’s fine guarding his man but needs work off the ball. McHale’s Celtics teams used to be great working as a unit on D, maybe he’s already working with Jefferson on this and it’s just a matter of time.
by plinytheelder on Jan 31, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jordan is..
…also making only 500-750k per year over the next 2. He aint going anywhere.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Win the LOTTERY
No way can the Wolves give up protection ont their pick before the lottery. Not for Marcus Camby.
by WinTheLottery on Jan 31, 2009 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Game
Nice write-up and very good stats. This is a great product here…..
While I was one of the chief complainers of our lack of length, I totally agree that getting another elite backcourt talent is an even higher priority (I’d take Rubio over Thabeet 10 times out of 10), but I would absolutely put getting more length/size at the C position as the next highest priority, even more so than landing a SF in the Marvin Williams mold.
Yes, on most nights, Love and Jefferson will make a fine pairing and hold their own against average NBA teams. But I’m interested in contending. And as I look forward two, three, four years from now, I see the likes of Bynum, Howard, and Oden dominating this League. It’s not a matter of stopping these guys, it’s a matter of holding them to their averages or force a few more empty possessions out of them.
Looking back on Jefferson’s historical +/- numbers, there is almost always more positive results when he’s paired with a big man. Perkins, Ratliff, heck, even Olowokandi!
Miller for Dalembert, Varejao free agent, Jerome Jordan….Just a few ideas I’d throw out there that are possible without using the 7th pick in the draft to take a big guy. Of course you never know, the way B.J. Mullens is improving, he just might be the guy with the most upside at #7!
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 31, 2009 9:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Danke..
….Jerome Jordan is interesting. I wonder where he’ll go in the draft.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bigs vs. Point Guards and Phil Jackson
Hi. I’m new here, but post over at Britt’s place as Nate.
Anyway…
1. If the draft is deep in point guards and not as deep in Bigs and we need both, it seems that we should spend the first pick on a big, unless a clearly superior PG is available (Rubio, etc.). Suppose we have the tenth pick and the 20th pick. Granted we don’t know which players will be available, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to pick a big first and then take advantage of the deep guard talent on the 20th pick. Of course, I’m interpreting deepness as “available late into the draft” as opposed to “of the first 15 players drafted, 12 will be guards.”
2. Sure, Phil may be a management guru and not as much of a coach as Red, but what about Tex Winter (not that he gets all the credit). But my understanding is that he is a real basketball mind, inventor of the triangle offense and that he has been with Phil for all his championships. Does he not deserve another ring?
3. Back to the draft: I know that there is a fair amount of college b-ball knowledge on this site. Does anyone have an informed opinion on local boy Cole Aldrich? If he’s available in the the low teens and the wolves can trade picks to get him, could it be good? Local boy draws crowds and he good (and a center)?
Thanks. Great, great blog. Love the stats.
by littleboxes on Jan 31, 2009 11:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hey--
ESPN is just torturing Wolves’ fans with Aldrich. Not only is he a guy from the Twin Cities (which means McHale is actually aware of him), but he duplicates the position at which two of the three best Wolves players are already clogging up. ESPN even goes so far as to name the player Aldrich is most similar to as one “Kevin Love.”
If he were two inches taller, he’d be great for the Wolves, a la Joel Pryz. But I think now he’s a very good college center and a weak PF at the pro level. I’d rather have a longer defensive force in the middle to help protect against the offensive-minded 4s on the team, as well as the weaker perimeter defense. But! If he slips to the 20s in the first round, it’s probably inevitable that he ends up here.
by PoorDick on Jan 31, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome..
…Tex Winter is indeed the guy behind the Triangle/Triple Post offense. There is a pretty good historical run down on the system here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_offense
I think it’s largely overblown as far as its effectiveness. Not many other teams run it and Jackson could have run damn near anything he wanted with Jordan/Pippen and Shaq/Kobe and it would have been hailed as a major advancement.
I haven’t followed Aldrich much this year as I kind of figured he’d stay another year and become a lotto player.
I guess as far as the Wolves are concerned, his size would have to be legit to take him and he would have to show some defensive potential. Numbers-wise, he’s putting up the goods this year and I think he’d definitely be a 1st rounder if he came out. He can rebound like a mad man. He is from Jefferson however….that’s always a strike against anyone ;)
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also..
….I’ll have a post on the draft board here in a week or two. I’ve finally started running numbers through the formula we used last year and it’s popped out a few interesting results. Here are how the guards stack up:
1- Ty Lawson
2- James Harden
3- Danny Green
4- Evan Turner
5- Steph Curry
6- Lester Hudson
7- Jeff Teague
8- Lee Cummard
9- Marcus Thornton
Questionable:
Eric Maynor, Jrue Holiday and Jonny Flynn.
Centers:
1- Thabeet
2- Jerome Jordan
3- Tyler Hansborough
Avoid: Mullens.
Again, these haven’t been weighted with anything and I’m still tinkering with how I should go about doing that. These are simply done by the same calculations I made last year. The top 5 guards actually look pretty good compared to the back court players who came out last year.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
whoops...
…forgot the 10th guard: Tyreke Evans.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Lawson with the Miami pick
If he’s there. Also what about Patrick Mills. He was clearly the best player in that St. Mary’s/Gonzaga game and after he went down with the injury St. Mary’s had nothing. He’s short, so I’m not sure he’s a good fit with Bassy, etc., but players are players.
by BDavige on Jan 31, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mills...
I’d wait to see if St.Mary’s makes the NCAA tournament. He did a great job at the Olympics but St. Mary’s
schedule has been pretty weak. I’m pretty sure Gonzaga is the only nationally ranked team St. Marys play.
I like the Camby idea; he can be some short to medium term help at the 5, although he would likely cut Love’s minutes
(and we have all had an opinion on that issue!).
And SnP, does Greg Monroe not make your list of bigs? How does he rate with you?
I
by Auswolf on Jan 31, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll run the numbers on Mills...
….Calathes, the PG from Gonzaga, and Monroe. I haven’t made it all the way through the prospect list yet.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What's holding Teague down?
Looks are deceiving, but he looks legit. Lawson scares me.
by BDavige on Jan 31, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Teague
His terrible Assist-to-Turnover Ratio is probably part of it (barely above 1.0 for the season). Very turnover prone.
I also wonder if he’s another “shooting guard in a point guard’s body” type player.
I do like Lawson. Yeah he’s a little short but I think he compensates with great strength.
by highpockets on Jan 31, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lawson..
…has mind-blowing a/to and ppr numbers. It’s nice to see guards with a ppr in the 2-4 range. He’s up over 9 with a 3.64 a/to rate. My calculation is possessions based so Teague takes a few dings simply for the mass of unfavorably ended possessions he engages in. That being said, he’s right about where Mayo was last year at this point.
I just ran Monroe through the spread sheet and he came out between Hansborough and Jordan.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lawson
I just can’t make up my mind on him. It’s undeniable the guy does so many things at an absurdly good level, but then there are red flags everywhere, as well. He’s a combination of tremendous strengths and worrisome weaknesses. If he were a couple inches bigger, he’d might be in the running for a top 3 pick. As it is, he could go anywhere.
I said this earlier, but the thing that gives me most pause is his rebounding. At his size, he isn’t expected to be much a rebounder. But John Hollinger found a pretty significant correlation to an NCAA prospect’s rebounding rate for his size and NBA success. If you compare Lawson to other similarly built NBA players, particularly Jameer Nelson, Kyle Lowry, and Nate Robinson, you’ll find he is—literally—not half the rebounder those guys were. Part of that may be due to UNCs system (Lawson is probably more concerned about getting a head start up the floor when the shot goes up, Rodney Carney style, than crashing). But who knows? A lot of the other things he does far eclipses what those guys did at the NCAA level.
So, like I said, I can’t decide. He might be a worthy top 10 pick, should the Wolves end up in the 7-10 range. Or he could slide pretty far down (he’d definately be worth it at the Miami pick if he’s there). Or Jameer Nelson could go nuts in the playoffs, generating a wake of smallish guard enthusiasm that Lawson could ride into top 5 pick glory. Who knows?
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 8:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
…there is just something about him that…well, I view his upper level as being a Super Bassy. He’s an undersized guard with world class quickness. His numbers suggest he’ll be better with the ball and shoot for a better %, but he’s the same type of player they already have. Some of his numbers are absolutely mind blowing. I’ll start running the draft board posts this Friday. I’ve tinkered with the formula a bit and I’m going to break the posts up into 3 sections (guards, swings, bigs) but Lawson is at the top of the guard list….above Harden and Curry.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 8:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jennings, too. I see him as almost a Bassy clone in terms of strengths and weaknesses.
Interesting that Tyreke Evans scores fairly well in your system. I’ve gone from “real interested” in him to “what a flake” to “you know, he’s not half bad.” He’s doing better since he moved to PG, too. He’s another guy it’s difficult to gauge. He may not declare, he may declare but without noticeably improving his play may slide (draftexpress has the Wolves now taking him with the Heat pick, which would be awesome as the upside/reward element at that point in the draft more than make up for the risk, IMO), or he could enjoy a Derrick Rose-like stretch run/tournament that puts him right back near the top of the board.
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 9:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He definitely plays..
….the right part of the guy the Wolves could use.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Say can you
say a bit about what you see in Marvin Williams? I’ve seen you bring his name up on several occasions but don’t understand why you’re so attracted to him – do you see him as a potential elite 3? I ask in all sincerity, I never get to see the guy play, I just find his stats somewhat underwhelming; the few times I have seen him I’ve been similarly underwhelmed. No qualms about his athleticism, which is obviously off the charts; I’m just wondering, given that you’re so high on him, what role you see him playing with the Wolves.
by plinytheelder on Feb 1, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm putting together a post on the guy..
…and it should come up here soon….there will be one on ariza and him.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 12:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Super Bassy / Jameer Nelson comparisons
I see Bassy as essentially a finesse player who relies on having a clear runway to the bucket after using his quickness to shake the primary defender. If help comes he’s dead in the water unless he can find a passing lane. And he is not a good shooter.
Nelson is primarily a jump shooting, P-N-R guy. I like the guy, but I think a lot of his success is a result of the Magic’s system somewhat catering to his game, and having a playmaking SF (Turkoglu) to handle some of the traditional PG duties.
Lawson is different from both these guys.
If you watch him, he’s a physical point guard who looks to get to the rim. He seeks out contact on the drive, but is also a good shooter. Yes he will have to adjust his game to the length and size of pro big men (sound like anyone we know?). But I think the way he plays is fundamentally different from some of the “little guards” mentioned. He really attacks the defense, and his shooting ability won’t let teams sag off him (ala Bassy).
I haven’t seen Lowry enough to know his style but I know he was not a shooter at all in college (less than 1 3PA per game his senior year).
I don’t mean to be constanly jocking Lawson but it seems like I see things in him that others don’t.
by highpockets on Feb 1, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nelson did more work inside in college than he does with the Magic at the NBA level. But you’re right, offensively, Lawson is heads and tails better than these other guys we’re talking about at the NCAA level. He’s a better shooter, he more efficient scorer, a brilliant passer and handler, a pace pusher…. And he’s been doing it all 3 years at Carolina.
My comparison to Nelson and Lowry had more to do with body type than style, because obviously size is the big question with Lawson. As far as that goes, the rebounding is the big potential red flag. Lawson is literally not half the rebounder those guys were (not that he’s going to be asked to rebound either with UNC or in the NBA, but Hollinger’s research indicates there’s something there that indicates whether a guy will play at the next level or not: guys who rebound well compared to peers at their height tend to have better success than those who don’t.) As I said, part of that may be due to how UNC plays; OTOH, the Roy Williams, more than the vast majority of other coaches, encourages his team to go for offensive boards, even it leads to an occasional break the other way. So who knows?
We’ll see. My gut reaction is he’s sooooo good at everything else that he’ll be able to translate to the pros. But it is out there. I’d love to have him with the Wolves, though. I’m really warming up to him.
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Nelson is really almost a perfect body-type comp for Lawson (Draftexpress.com historical pre-draft measurements).
Lawson (last year): 5’ 10.25", 195. Wingspan of 6’1"; Reach of 7’9.5"
Nelson got measured up two years and apparently grew a tad bit:
Nelson #1: 5’ 10.25", 193. Wingspan of 6’2"; Reach of 7’ 9.5"
Nelson #2: 5’ 11", 199. Wingspan of 6’ 2.5"; Reach of 7’ 11"
Hard to beat that for a match. The discouraging thing is most of the similarly-sized guards have longer arms than these two, allowing them to “play bigger.” (Guys like Raymond Felton, or several shorter but leaner guards: TJ Ford and Mike Conley, for instance). I think a lot of people might be surprised at how “short” a lot of these guys are (compared to what they’re advertised as). Derrick Rose, for instance, is closer to 6’ 1" than 6’ 3" or 6’ 4". But he has a very good wingspan/reach, which helps in defending and laying it up down low, obviously.
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gerald Henderson
I know he’s from Duke but seems to be a legit SG prospect, probably will be available mid/late 1st round (Miami pick?).
His outside shot has really come around this year (45% on 3s). Plays great D, too.
by highpockets on Feb 1, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have him on the list
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ay mayn u alreddy know whu it is
MAYN HOL UP IN DIS PIECE MAYN! mayn i cuddint go to de game lass nigh but i juss got cable mayn so i wuz steady sippin mayn on de 40! by de end uv de 3rd quarter mayn mah boys had to pick me up off de floor mayn! dat MGD and Patron had me goin mayn!
so i aint got much to say bout de game besides dat mayn but de wolves STILL got me sayin mayn hol up i still believe mayn!
Ariza looked mad nice doe, gotta say.
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Jan 31, 2009 1:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
yeah I agree on Ariza,
I didn’t know he was that good.
by plinytheelder on Jan 31, 2009 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and day boy Bynum
as good as advertised mayn he wuz thowed lass nigh!
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Jan 31, 2009 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ariza..
…is one of those guys who could be an upper-level glue guy with defense, athleticism and…well, he’s everything you want to see from Brewer. He’s awesome…and only 23.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I really like your words on Brewer in your post.
I’m really high on him. I know he’s still pretty raw but I think he’s going to be a really good player at some point. And yeah, if he can start knocking down that corner 3 it will be something…I don’t even think he needs to be super-creative, guys like Foye and Telfair (on penetration) and Love and Jefferson (on inside-out passes) can make his shots for him. He needs to hit that shot, fill the lanes, play great D and crash the boards. He could even give the Wolves some minutes at the 2 next year depending on how his shooting goes, that could really be helpful on D.
by plinytheelder on Jan 31, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ariza is the goal for Brewer...
…if he can play like that, it’s all good. Of course, his shooting is what will need to improve the most. If he can play in the mold of Ariza and if they can bring in a guy like Williams as an upgrade for Gomes while getting a decent point with their own pick and a solid big with the Heat pick, while maintaining or moving forward the remaining assets, I think that’s a solid off-season. Curry + Jerome Jordan or Lawson + whomever they have ranked highest as a big = a good draft.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 7:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
still think Marvin Williams
is nuttin but a fake ass perpetrator mayn! but I LUV DEM WOLVES MAYN!
ay mayn i wuz thinkin mayn: have u eva seen a better rebounder den De Angry Whopper (Kevin Love)? i wuz a lil too young to appreciate de Rodman era but mayn, de way people talk about dat dude I be like MAYN KEVIN LOVE A FIEND MAYN!
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Feb 1, 2009 3:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there aren't too many other....
…..rebounders that come to mind of late.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 6:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ariza
Well, I might be the board’s biggest Ariza advocate, so take what I say with a grain of salt. But I’d lllooooovvveee to see the Wolves add another Bruin and make a move on him. I won’t delve too deep into the numbers (maybe later) but he’s a superior player to both Brewer and Carney and he’s a legitimate elite perimeter defender, a longtime franchise shortcoming. And as you said, at 23, he’s younger than Carney and just a year older than Brewer.
Now, he has a long ways to go, but if Brewer can replicate him, that’d be great. I’m not convinced he can (he really needs to tighten up his dribble drive in the half-court; and probably get stronger, as to this point he’s really best effective guarding PGs, which obviously leaves someone else on the floor mismatched; plus, he really needs to get smoother: Ariza just glides around and lets things come to him offensively while having a knack for being in the right place at the right time defensively, while Brewer’s a bit hyperactive and gets into trouble).
As a caveat, a big portion of my enthusiasm for Ariza is I believe he’s going to sign a bargain contract, because he’s not a huge scorer. If I’m wrong, then they should avoid him. But I also believe he can have a Gerald Wallace-type impact (except younger and thus far less injury prone, although he did just have a concussion, like Wallace…), so my comfort level for a contract might be higher than some. Or, if I could force Corey Brewer to watch some Ariza game film, Clockwork-Orange style, and he could replicate what he does, then I’d reconsider.
A side benefit to signing Ariza: the Lakers have some serious dynastic potential. We’ll have to wait and see, of course. But they’ve already got one young guy in Bynum who’s signed to a cap friendly contract, Ariza might give them another. They could have 2 young players who give them a matchup advantage most nights for bargain contracts. I just know they’re hoping everyone is sleeping on Ariza, so they can let Odom walk, re-up Kobe, bring back Ariza for a pittance, and have a rather large window for success. If the Wolves signed Ariza, then suddenly their depth and size take a hit, as they’ll likely lose Odom AND Ariza (put it this way, more Luke Walton is good for the rest of the league)…
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well put..
….to be perfectly honest, I think the Wolves need to land Ariza or Williams in free agency and I think Ariza would be the much easier land. The guy is awesome and I don’t think that Brewer can match what he does on the stat sheet. However, taking into consideration resources spent and unspent, Brewer makes up some ground simply due to the fact that he was the 7th pick in the draft and any free agent money spent on Ariza is taken away from somewhere else.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points...
Brewer is the key. He was drafted to essentially play Ariza’s role. And of course, like a lot of things with the Wolves, it’s not easy to figure if it will work. I think a simple way to do it is to compare how they do at similar ages, and Ariza was more effective at 21 and 22 than Brewer was. But it’s a question of comfort level. If Brewer near term can do, what? 70 or 80% of what Ariza does, then it’s probably not worth it.
I can’t decide if I’m excited about this offseason or nervous. Zgoda had an awesome article in the strib today talking about the KG decision (Wolves choosing between Bynum or Jefferson), and had some observations on the Wolves from the mouth of the Zen Master. Jackson said he liked the core they had, but noted some problems (size, particularly, interestingly, in the backcourt) and stated his belief that their fortune pretty much all comes down to the decisions they make this offseason. Given that members of the Wolves management don’t exactly have a ton of vision or creativity on their resumes, it cause anxiety. They’ve done a wonderful job getting the team into a really enviable position. But can they take the next step, turning “good position” into “good team”?
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 8:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed...
…about the nervousness of the off-season. This is the culmination of the KG and Mayo trades. If they screw this up they short circuit the whole damn rebuilding effort.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe instead of all of us dreaming up dream scenarios, we need to try and come up with some worst case ones, just in case they do disappoint we’re not completely floored? :)
Expect the worse, hope for the best… It’ll probably fall somewhere in between.
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope...
they understand the urgency of this offseason. This is their time; the rest of the league is dormant until 2010 and/or looking to position themselves for 2010. If they just sit on deals like Miller and Cardinal, their flexibility/cap space probably won’t mean a damn thing in two summers. They’re not going be big players in free agency, and their flexibility would be far less effective in swinging any potential impact trades. That’s my worry.
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep..
…by moving in 09 they can have a less crowded field to deal with and be relatively big fish.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 1, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Curry
is that I think, when the NBA officially measures him, you are going to find him being on the short side of 6’2". I think he has strong 2 guard skills – skills which we could use. I would love him as our 2 if he were at least 6’5" (prefer 6’7"). But with us being undersized already at 1 & 2 with Telfair and Foye, I just don’t think Curry can be our guy. Or do you see him as our starting 1? I am struggling to see Curry as a 1 in the NBA – just does not seem quick enough. But I have only seen him play a couple of times.
by Just A Fan on Jan 31, 2009 7:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I definitely think he'll play the 1
He’s a solid, solid player.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Curry...
I have some reservations about him. He’s not a specialist in the mode of J.J. Reddick by any means: he has an underrated overall game. But he’s a tad too perimeter oriented offensively for my taste. And part of me wonders how much of his good assist/PPR numbers are due to opponents being more than happy to let him pass the ball out of his hands.
That said, I agree he’ll be able to play. I just wonder if he might be the type whose success depends on where he lands. I think he’d be dynamite sharing a backcourt/perimeter with a guy like Ronnie Brewer or Andre Iguodola or something, a big slasher/defender. I’m not sure a Telfair/Foye/Curry guard rotation has enough size to be a longterm solution. But I always think you take the BPA/best asset you can in the draft. If the Wolves are sitting there at #9 or something and Curry’s on the board, they’d have to consider him at the very least…
by jianfu on Feb 1, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Terrible looking knee injury to Bynum...
….tonight against Memphis. Kobe rolled right into his knee. He’ll have tests on the knee tomorrow or on Monday. Here’s hoping it’s nothing serious.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 31, 2009 10:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Boston game is at noon est today
KG out with Illness…
by Tony_O on Feb 1, 2009 10:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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