The Real O.J.
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 6, 2009 12:02 PM CST
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It's been a busy day of writing here at Hoopus and we still have a game thread tonight so I'll put this one below the fold. Enjoy.
I was reading through the Memphis papers this morning when I came across this little gem:
But in 33 professional games, Mayo has shown the ability to be -- let's use Wallace's term here -- "a major player in the league."
There aren't many players who fit that description. The Grizzlies have never had one.
Carmelo Anthony is a major player in the league. So are Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy.
Anthony's numbers as a rookie: 21 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists.
Wade's numbers as a rookie: 16.2 points, 4 rebounds, 4.5 assists.
Roy's numbers as a rookie: 16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4 assists.
Now, for purposes of comparison, Mayo's numbers as a rookie: 19.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3 assists.
"The really amazing thing," said Wallace, "is that he's not doing it with an abundance of shots.
No, the amazing thing is that he's doing it with the shots he's doing it with. Early on this year Mayo was a freakish 2FG% shooter, putting up numbers comparable to Steve Nash. 82% of his shots come on jumpers, 39% of which are assisted. He has an eFG of .507 on these attempts. These numbers are dropping. (Also, how ridiculous is it to throw Melo into that group? Why not add Shaq while you're at it?)
Over the last 10 games Mayo has a .417 FG% while shooting .339 from beyond the arc. Over his last 5 he is .448 and .323 respectively. He is putting up these shooting numbers as a rookie playing an insane number of minutes. Over his last 5 he is averaging 41.6 mpg. His only statistical top-10 is minutes played, where he ranks 4th in the league behind Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, and Vince Carter.
We don't fault the columnist at the Commercial Appeal for being excited about a fantastic rookie player. What we do fault him for is irrational exuberance. Do you know who O.J. Mayo is? He's Ben Gordon. Take a look at their rookie campaigns:
| Rk | Player | From | To | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Gordon | 2005 | 2005 | 82 | 3 | 2002 | 7.8 | 19.0 | .411 | 2.4 | 6.0 | .405 | 4.2 | 4.9 | .863 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 22.2 |
| 2 | O.J. Mayo | 2009 | 2009 | 34 | 34 | 1293 | 7.0 | 15.5 | .453 | 1.8 | 4.6 | .394 | 2.8 | 3.2 | .879 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 18.7 |
Let's compare current seasons:
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Gordon | 2008-09 | 25 | 34 | 28 | 1243 | 7.1 | 15.8 | .451 | 2.4 | 5.6 | .427 | 3.9 | 4.6 | .861 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 20.6 |
| 2 | O.J. Mayo | 2008-09 | 21 | 34 | 34 | 1293 | 7.0 | 15.5 | .453 | 1.8 | 4.6 | .394 | 2.8 | 3.2 | .879 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 18.7 |
As a 21 year old rookie Gordon came off the bench and earned 6th Man of the Year honors but he was also viewed as a clutch 4th quarter performer who could score with the best of them when the game was on the line. It turns out that Mr. Gordon wasn't really all that great at rebounding, getting steals, protecting the rock, and shooting from inside the arc.
As you can see from the above charts, Mayo performs very much in the mold of a rookie Ben Gordon. The only thing keeping him from being a complete Gordon clone is his superior 2FG% (falling) and minutes (increasing), and his inferior FTAs. Otherwise, he's a long range jump shooter who relies heavily on the 3 ball (to the tune of 30% of his shots) to score "effectively" while doing very little else above what is considered average for his position. Take a look at this chart from Wages of Wins from about 2 weeks ago:
|
Statistic |
Average Shooting Guard |
OJ Mayo |
|
Points per shot |
0.96 |
1.04 |
|
Adjusted Field Goal Percentage |
48.1% |
52.0% |
|
Free Throw Percentage |
0.80 |
88.8% |
|
Field Goal Attempts |
17.5 |
20.9 |
|
Free Throw Attempts |
4.9 |
4.8 |
|
Points Scored |
20.8 |
26.1 |
|
Rebounds |
5.6 |
5.2 |
|
Steals |
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
Turnovers |
2.8 |
3.4 |
|
Net Possessions |
4.6 |
3.2 |
|
Blocked Shots |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
Assists |
4.6 |
3.6 |
|
Personal Fouls |
3.7 |
2.9 |
|
Win Score |
6.1 |
6.3 |
O.J. Mayo is a fantastic shooter. He's a solid rookie who does some very nice things on the court. However, I think it's far more likely that he's a Ben Gordon type of player instead of a Wade, Anthony, and Roy one. This is nothing to sneeze at but a superstar in the making he ain't.
Regardless of what happens in tonight's game I want all of our readers to pay attention to what O.J. Mayo does to positively end or extend his team's possessions outside of making jump shots. Does he get to the line at a fair clip (he may tonight, but overall the answer is a clear no)? Does he rebound his position well? Does he dish out a lot of assists? Does he take a lot of shots that allow his teammates to be in good rebounding position? Does he turn the ball over more than the average shooting guard?
O.J. Mayo is a scorer. He is a scorer who relies on long jump shots while not getting to the line; he commits more turnovers than he creates; and he doesn't rebound his position particularly well. I'm not sure that's something to gloat about...at least no more than you would for someone like Ben Gordon.
PS: Mr. Gordon will be available in free agency next year and the Wolves could have the best of both worlds: a Mayo-esque player in Gordon + Kevin Love...all the while keeping their Miller/Cardinal/draft pick assets in place. If you haven't guessed already, Mr. Gordon will be prominently featured in an upcomming "what this team needs to do" post. If they can land a point in this draft (Rubio, Jennings, or Holiday) I think they should extend a hefty offer to Mr. Gordon and roll with a back court rotation of Telfair, Foye, Gordon, and (Rubio/Jennings/Holiday).
UPDATE: Thanks to a link from Blog-a-Bull I found this link from NBADraft.Net that compared Mayo to Ben Gordon. I hadn't seen that before but I suppose it would qualify for a real-time comparison talked about in the comments below.
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Of course, I'll bite on this...
First off, Ben Gordon is a good player, so it’s not a big insult to compare OJ Mayo to him. I realize you didn’t mean it to be, but I also realize that you mean it as a slight to his game—since others think he’s better than that. The reason why Mayo is better than Gordon, and will become even “more better” than Gordon, is that he has a dribble penetration game and knows how to create for teammates. Granted, some of those teammates (Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley) struggle to hit open shots and others (Rudy Gay) don’t move well without the ball, but if you watch Mayo play, he’s an extremely skilled and unselfish player. His high shot volume coincides with his high minutes volume. Anybody who watched his game at Minnesota could see a high basketball IQ on display. Experts who watch him play more than I have are saying that he’d make a good point guard. From what I’ve seen, I have to agree.
I do not, however, put him in Dwayne Wade’s league (or think he’ll ever be that good) and maybe not even Carmelo Anthony’s league. Dwayne Wade is arguably the best player on the planet. Nobody thought (or thinks) that Mayo is that player. Derrick Rose, on the other hand, absolutely has that potential, due to his freakish athleticism and strength.
I’m not going to repeat the criticisms of Love, but I would never, ever call Ben Gordon and Kevin Love “the best of both worlds.” Ben Gordon and some other player that can form a big front line next to Jefferson might be close. Watching a little of Gasol-Bynum vs. Aldridge-Oden, the other night, was all the reminder I needed that the smallball idea has no place in playoff basketball. I’ll repeat what I already said about Wittman and McHale’s proclamation that “our league has gotten smaller” — Maybe for the bad teams.
I don't think...
…this is an insult or a slight. He’s a scorer, is a scorer, is a scorer. Gordon does have a dribble penetration game and he is actually has better assist/passing numbers than Mayo. his ast/FGA, a/TO, asstR, and PPR are all above Mayo. He also gets to the line at a clip above and beyond what Mayo does. You can compare them here as well:
If you break down their games to possession and 36 minute stats, you’d be hard pressed to say how a) they’re different players or b) that Mayo is better. Gordon is a fantastic player but he is what he is; just like Mayo and Love. For all of the fans who really, really, really wanted Mayo, Gordon is every bit the player Mayo is minus the hype and trade baggage. My “best of both worlds” comment was aimed at pro-Mayo fans who think the Wovles made a bad deal with Love but still think Love is a decent player. Should the Wolves sign Gordon (and I think they should if they land a point in the draft), they will have a player every bit as good and similar as Mayo.
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For the sake of argument, if Ben Gordon was equal to OJ Mayo, and we signed him in the next off-season, I still wouldn’t want Kevin Love from last year’s draft. I don’t like smallball, and I’d rather see our best player playing his best position.
WIth that in mind, something like Mayo-Jefferson-Thabeet sounds a lot better to me than Gordon-Love-Jefferson.
(I have no idea on Thabeet, I’m just going off the assumption that he’s a high-lottery-pick caliber center, since that’s what others are saying.)
well...
…that’s another issue alltogether and I completely hear what you are saying about not liking small ball. I’m a big small ball fan so that’s just a difference in philosophy. For the sake of argument, small ball aside, if Love gets 25 mpg with his current rebound rate and a 16-18 per at the end of the year and the Wolves are within 1-2 games of Memphis (or better) is he as good of a player as Mayo?
I think Gordon/Love/Jefferson + a point like Rubio, Jennings, or Holiday sounds like a fun team to watch. Either way, I don’t think they have the super star guns to be at the top with a 24 year old Lebron in the league. I think we’re heading into the age of MJ part 2 and I just want them to be as close to the Sonics or Jazz as possible.
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I don't even think a AL/Love frontcourt can be considered as smallball
It’s more like small-slow-unathletic-defenseless ball
yawn
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 6, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Ben Gordon
Ben Gordon is the best player on the Bulls squad (Rose is too inconsistent at this point). Gordon helped lead the Bulls to their first playoff appearance since the Jordan era ended in 1998. After the season, Gordon became the first rookie in NBA history to be awarded the NBA Sixth Man Award.On December 27, 2008 Gordon passed Scottie Pippen as the Chicago Bulls career leader in Three-Pointers made.(from wiki). Projecting from his first year in the league he could have been an all star player just as OJ Mayo could be. He could still be an all star and has lead his team in scoring. Some other stats for you
Roy Rookie
GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
57 55 35.4 0.456 0.377 0.838 1.0 3.4 4.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 2.04 2.40 16.8
Wade Rookie year
GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
56 34.9 0.465 0.302 0.747 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.6 3.21 2.30 16.2
(I dont know how to make that clearer)
Stats very similar to Gordons and Mayos rookie careers. The idea founded by journalists and analysts such as Hollinger/Berri that you can use stats to predict future sucess is rediculous. Look at Kobe or T-Macs rookie years- T-Mac didnt score in double digits until his sophmore year!
I am always surprised at how many articles/stories there are about OJ Mayo on here.
You couldnt find a Kevin Love article on any Grizzlies websites
I'm certainly wary of the Wolves making a bid on Gordon in the offseason
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 6, 2009 1:25 PM CST reply actions
I would definitely like to see them make an offer.
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99% of the basketball world disagrees that it was a good trade...
For example, see what they’re saying in Memphis:
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/jan/06/top-notch-trade/
That isn’t just representative of Memphis hyperbole; I’d say it’s close to the “conventional wisdom” among NBA evaluators. And it is that way for a good reason.
While I agree with Andy G that comparing Mayo to Gordon isn’t necessarily an insult to Mayo because Gordon is a fine player, I will argue that it’s another case of the misuse/biased selection of stats to make a misleading political point. WhaHuh’s evidence comparing Mayo to Roy & Wade, for example, is just as credible as that which SnP marshaled to compare Mayo to Gordon. What we know from our own eyes and basketball knowledge is that Roy, Wade, and Gordon are all very different players and that they are not all of the same quality. We know this because we’ve all seen them play. We wouldn’t claim that Roy is the same as Wade because they had similar rookie stats. Most of us agree that Wade is qualitatively better than Roy even though Roy is an up-and-coming star. And we certainly wouldn’t agree that Gordon is as good or valuable as either Wade or Roy. This is where “scouting,” i.e., watching closely and using your basketball knowledge to make independent evaluations provides an important advantage as a complement to stats.
Based on his court savvy, maturity, unselfishness, and fierce desire to win and improve, as well as the cool demeanor and prowess in the clutch, I think it’s fairly clear that OJ Mayo will be a bigger star and impact player in the NBA than Ben Gordon, rookie stats be damned. Gordon makes big shots like Mayo does, but otherwise, the two just aren’t very similar. Mayo’s a better playmaker, defender, and has a higher ceiling as a scorer. Mayo won’t be as good as Wade—he simply doesn’t have the athleticism to make the plays that Wade can. But I think he has a good chance to make the kind of impact that Roy has, and I’m certain that he will make a bigger impact than Love will.
Stats alone can fool us into thinking that we can make up for the Love-Mayo trade by adding Ben Gordon (which would also kill us in terms of salary, as Ben will end up getting overpaid, but that’s another comment waiting to happen), but what we’d really have done in reality is add yet another above average role player, leaving us (still) without another star (like Mayo) to complement Jefferson.
Thanks for letting me rant…now I’m ready for tonight’s game! :)
I'm sorry guys...
…but I just don’t see the upper-level playmaking, defender, upper-level scorer in Mayo. He’s exactly the type of player as Gordon is. They both shoot about 30% of their shots from beyond the arc, they rebound in an almost identical manner, their asst/passing numbers aren’t what you’d like to see from an off guard. Does Gordon not have court savvy, maturity, unselfishness, and a fierce desire to win and improve, as well as the cool demeanor and prowess in the clutch? They are massively similar players.
Mayo/Gordon
pts/36- 18.7/20.6
efg- 50.7/52.6
ppr- 2/-0.1 11.6/10.6
tor
rebr- 6.6/5.2
usg- 23.3/23.3
PER- 16.1/17.3
pts/pos- 1.00/1.03
to/pos- 0.14/0.13
pts/play- 0.96/1
ts%- 55/57
pf/40- 2.3/2.5
to/40- 2.9/2.8
3pa/fga- .30/.35
fga/g- 16.4/16.1
Those aren’t cherry picked. Those are across-the-board numbers from rebounding, assists, passing, defense, free throws, shooting, types of shots, etc. How would signing Gordon kill the cap any differently than signing someone in 2010? Or another player in 09? This is a $10-15 mil/year proposition no matter where they go.
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BTW:
that article you linked to is the one that brought about this post. I link to it above with a quote.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Oops...
… I didn’t click the link (I don’t want to be redirected from my favorite Twolves blog).
“Does Gordon not have court savvy, maturity, unselfishness, and a fierce desire to win and improve, as well as the cool demeanor and prowess in the clutch?”
Yes. I believe Gordon has average to dubious court savvy, that he’s fairly selfish, and that he doesn’t have an above average will to win and improve. Those intangibles, as well as two inches of height, are the main factors that separate Gordon and Mayo. The intangibles are harder to observe, and they can’t easily be downloaded from the Internet like stats can, but they make a huge difference in determining how good players end up being and how valuable they are to a team. It’s entirely possible that I’m wrong: maybe Mayo’s “intangibles” (and two inches of height) aren’t any better than Gordon’s, in which case you’d be correct. But if I’m right—and twenty years of watching and playing basketball and close attention to both Gordon and Mayo over the course of their NBA careers often helps me make sound judgments—then a strictly statistical analysis of the two players is extremely misleading—even dishonest—because it fails to incorporate some of the most critical, yet difficult to measure, indicators of quality and value. You yourself stated after the Timberwolves game how impressed you were with Mayo’s game and maturity. Now you’re neglecting those aspects to tell a different story. As I said, I might be wrong, but most who’ve watched Mayo agree that these intangibles, along with an outstanding skill set, are what set him apart from the bulk of the players at his position and will allow him to continue to flourish.
I'm not saying...
..that Mayo is immature or that he isn’t smart. I think he’s a fine young player and an excellent scorer…in the mode of Ben Gordon…who, by the way, I want on this team. I have no way of knowing the off-the-court stuff and neither does anyone on this site. We don’t have access and we aren’t in the locker room. I don’t think I’m neglecting them so much as acknowledging that I don’t have the tools to make that assessment.
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Why pay attention to reporters, news out of scouting combines, etc., etc., then?
It’s obvious that basketball people place a lot of value in “intangibles” (some of which are observable qualitatively on the court) in making their decisions and in forming opinions, so why aren’t we held to the same standard? Qualitative information that is publicly available (and there’s a lot of it) should always be part of the story. A discerning eye is required, of course, to filter out the misinformation, but you can learn a lot and improve player evaluations by incorporating this into any analysis. So should first-hand, “primary,” evidence be a requisite for this type of “final analysis,” and this kind of analysis can only be obtained through careful watching of actual games. People who specialize in these things rave about how good Mayo is (and will be), and they aren’t using Ben Gordon as an analogy.
I need examples...
…because I have no idea who or what you are referring to. I’d also like to take you back in time to Gordon’s rookie season to remind you what people said about him when the Bulls went to the playoffs. What specialists are you talking about?
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Both NBA personnel and media...take your pick...
NBA decisionmakers and the “mainstream” media rely hardly at all on stats. They place almost all their emphasis on scouting, film sessions, rumors, and qualitative information that gets passed along through various networks. Maybe they look at conventional stats as a first cut, but then their real position gets formed after they’ve watched a player enough to know whether a player is an athlete or not, whether he plays smart or not, whether he’s a winner or not, whether he gets along with his teammates or not, whether he is a malcontent or not, whether he always plays hard or not, and more. Once they factor their perceptions from first-hand observations of these things, they relay what they’ve concluded to others (although journalists have to try to veil their opinions, they’re easy to detect, especially in blogs from Zgoda, Britt, et al), and this forms the basis for “scouting reports,” or opinions about how good players actually are regardless of how their stats look. Stats will obviously play a role in any scouting report, but the reports invariably will tell how players get these stats, which is the million dollar question. Scouting reports inform what other people think about players, and they get revised as more people see players more times. Over time, scouting reports get to be pretty good and you start to know what you have in a player. However careful observers continue to refine any scouting report during each first-hand observation of a player, as these are the most important pieces of evidence we have. Anyway, two players with fairly similar stats can look quite different based on this form of evaluation, depending on what you’ve seen across these different and important categories of qualitative evaluation.
NBA front offices and coaches, as well as reporters, have to do their work this way in order to be effective. If front offices were to rely on stats to evaluate two players, then they would simply print off college stats from the Internet and watch SportsCenter and make rational choices based on the “numbers” (obviously they don’t, though PER is becoming very influential). Newspaper writers could just write the game story by translating the box score into words (good ones don’t do this). There’d be no need to tell a more generous story. We can probably disagree that this would be selling ourselves short.
These principles apply to trying to evaluate whether OJ Mayo is going to be a better player than Ben Gordon based on each player’s rookie stats. I watched Gordon a lot when he was a rookie, and he looked more like Vinnie Johnson or the good version of Rashad McCants than OJ Mayo this season, who looks more like a small Joe Johnson or, to a lesser degree than Johnson, Brandon Roy. One could plainly see (then and now) that Gordon lacked the kind of court awareness or team play that Mayo has. One could see that Gordon’s height affected his shot selection more than Mayo’s does (OJ gets much higher quality midrange shots because he has a couple inches that Gordon lacks), which likely means that OJ will continue to get those kinds shots in the future. One could see that Mayo moves better within the offense than Ben. OJ therefore gets easier jumpers, whereas Gordon’s main offense was to simply wait for the ball about 24 feet from the hoop and then jack it up or dribble drive to his right, a la Foye, before settling for that difficult floater. Mayo’s willingness to work within the team framework and move on offense suggest (but are not conclusive evidence) that he is likely a team player and hard worker (which is consistent with the scouting reports formed earlier).
These are just a few areas where careful first-hand observation of observable on-court things can help square the evidentiary circle on player evaluation and comparison that stats cannot. I’m not saying that stats shouldn’t be used, but I just find the use of stats as the “main” body of inference to be dubious, because they don’t get at any of the big issues about a player that I mentioned above.
Excellent post
I’m way too lazy to write something that thorough and instead just say “watch him play”
I agree with a lot of what you say..
….in terms of general philosophy when it comes to evaluating players. However, I disagree on 2 big points: first, I think NBA decisionmakers do indeed rely heavily on statistical analysis. Maybe not at 600 First Avenue but Moneyball is alive and well in the NBA and you don’t need to look too far to find examples (Dean Oliver with the Denver Nuggets being the 1st one that comes to mind).
I’d also reiterate my request to name names. Who is saying what about Mayo? Specifically. Does the Memphis Commercial Appeal article pass as this sort of analysis? Personally, I think that article is a severely flawed piece of crap and he doesn’t use stats at all; actually, that’s not true… I’m sure he looked at ppg averages and then wrote something based on an opinion every bit as “biased” as what you will see here. We all have axes to grind I suppose. I don’t think there is anything wrong with that as long as you are fair, consistent, and transparent about it.
I think a lot of what gets passed off on ESPN is nothing more than inside-the-beltway type chatter passed off as analysis. I think the talk about Mayo being a defending playmaker is a prime example of this phenomenon. Where is this evident in his game on a level above and beyond a player without the hype? Ultimately, any defense of this point comes down to either “I heard it from so-and-so” or “I saw him a few times this year”. I think we’d all be surprised as to just how much of the “expert” coverage of the NBA consists of this level of analysis. Where are these reports on Mayo? What do they say? Were they any more accurate than what you could have seen in the stats?
I agree that you need to talk about the “how” part of the equation and that involves a great deal of scouting and watching, but simply watching them play is an equally incomplete part of the equation as is statistical analysis. Personally, I watch Mayo and I see a player like Gordon. I really do. It’s not just the stats. I see a guy who relies heavily on 3 pointers and outside jump shooting to score in a somewhat efficient manner. The differences I see in them have more to do with their team situations than how they both play the game. I’ve watched Memphis games where Mayo spends a large time not moving around, just sitting in the corner waiting for the 3 ball.
I think stats can supply or supplement about 80% of player evaluation. I think this encompasses about 90% of what happens on the court and…well, there are no stats for craziness and I imagine off the court/personal compatibility makes up a good piece of the puzzle.
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Thanks for the reply...
… and I take your points. I’m sure NBA decisionmakers look at stats, but I’d bet that they play a very secondary (if that’s even an appropriate metaphor) role in NBA decision-makers’ player evaluations. As I said, they’re a first-cut, and while they’re very useful at first blush to generate ideas, they just can’t tell you what you really need to know about a player, i.e., what is causing him to get those stats. To form a reliable opinion on this, you need to have a keen eye and a good understanding of how basketball is played, what works and what doesn’t, and what’s important and what isn’t. It’s more of an art than a science. Even the sabremetric revolution in baseball, where statistical analysis is arguably more appropriate because it is a more controlled environment, isn’t doing anything to obviate the need for high quality scouting.
You’re right that a lot of talk spreads around the NBA on the basis of hearsay. “So-and-so told me…” is a very imperfect way of forming scouting reports, but it does provide some information on actual visual evidence that a human has had to process. Ultimately, the credibility and reliability of that kind of scouting report rests with the source it comes from. ESPN is better than you would think. The Twins Strib beatwriters were raving about how hard the ESPN guys were working during the winter meetings, and how their hard work is matched only by their unprecedented access and resources. This translated into ESPN getting some of the best reporting and analysis from the meetings. The same is true of its NBA coverage. I’m aware of all of the pitfalls of ESPN and other conglomerates, but they do have a truly unprecedented pool of resources and access with which to generate relatively high quality information about players. Again, it’s only as good as its source, and that varies within ESPN. However, I think a lot of the jabs that non-traditional media people make about ESPN can be chalked up to jealousy rather than legitimate complaints.
And why not at least listen to what the Memphis paper has to say? The reporter could be a kook, but he could be their best basketball mind, which is probably at least as capable as yours or mine is. AND, this guy probably watches every Memphis game and writes about them too. Chances are, he knows more about Mayo than we do, and we should at least hear what he has to say and try to evaluate what we can take away from it. I doubt he’s just blindly supporting the guy cuz he’s a Grizzly; if that we true, we’d expect a lot more praise for Kevin Love from the MN papers rather than the criticism he’s gotten from Zgoda (who has more access to and information about the Wolves than any of us) and others.
Again, this is a tricky and imperfect enterprise, but it’s absolutely necessary to engage it in order to make credible claims.
As for Mayo raves based on qualitative evidence, read almost any draft coverage from any outlet prior to the draft. At that time, there were no NBA stats to evaluate, so everyone had to use their noses and sniff around, as well as watch Mayo’s USC video. Prior to the draft most people who were doing this kind of analysis (especially on ESPN) were saying the same things they are now about both Mayo and Love: Mayo would play beyond his years and have a great stroke, and that he’d be impressive even if he isn’t as quick as some two guards; Love was a bit undersized and would struggle on defense but was highly skilled, etc.
Ditto on the thanks...
…one of the things I wanted to foster on this site is good give and take.
One of the things I have been trying to cook up behind the scenes is a post on how teams use statistical analysis. Hopefully we’ll have something by season’s end.
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That should be an interesting post...
… I’ll look forward to reading it!
Hmm
So we are talking about a rookie already as good as Ben Gordon who will be earning approx 9/10million less in 2009/10? How is that signing a win for the Wolves?
No...
…we’re talking about a rookie putting up similar rookie numbers to Ben Gordon’s rookie season. Gordon is playing very well this year and actually has Mayo beat in several areas. I use both seasons to argue that they are similar players and that the Wolves could get what they had in Mayo by signing Gordon while still utilizing the other significant assets they gained in the Mayo trade. That’s a pretty solid scenario to be in.
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Mayo's FG%s are dropping as other teams are focused on stopping him because he's already the best player on the Grizzlies and he's just THAT good.
I can’t believe Mayo is still getting labeled as a chucker. All it takes is to watch one of his games. His passing, ball handling, and court vision are all good. But most impressive is his basketball IQ and maturity. I thought that’s why we traded for Love?
No one here is...
…calling him a chucker or saying that he’s not impressive or that he is dumb and immature. None of that. You can argue with that straw man all you want but no one here is saying those things.
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I would be very intrigued by Gordon
Was it someone on here that mentioned what Orlando did with R. Lewis? They got him because no one else had cap room and look at their improvement with the acquisition. I could see the Wolves doing this with Gordon. Add in their 2009 first round pick (Thabeet? No thank you) and I think you’d be hard-pressed to argue against the team being greatly improved. I know this is the point of the internets and blogs, but I get tired of people being so pissed off that we traded OJ Mayo. It’s like, “It happened, move on. If you can’t, go out and talk to Stack about re-acquiring him.” This is why I come to Canis for all my Twolves stuff, it’s logical, well thought out and (somehow) still not weighed down by the increasingly requisite “I hate everything about the Twolves although I am still a fan” bitterness. Thanks.
Thanks for the kind words...
….much appreciated.
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Oy, I thought we might be done with this debate
Until someone shows me that Mayo is actually producing stats that would indicate good ball handling and good court vision (i.e., more assists, less TOs, more trips to the line), and that his defense is actually good (i.e., his on/off court defensive #s indicate that), I think people are overstating Mayo’s prowess in those areas.
I’ll admit it: the only time I’ve seen the Grizz this season is when they played the Wolves. They aren’t on national TV, and life’s too short to follow more than one dysfunctional franchise with a terrible GM, an unproven coach and little hope for the future. I bet that most of the people in this debate are the same way. What I would say, is that we all know the Wolves play terrible perimiter D, so if we’re basing our impressions on Mayo through that one game, we’re giving him too much credit.
We can debate our objective impressions all we want, but I would note how the vaunted draft class of 03 did in their 1st seasons record-wise:
Wade: 42-40 (heat were 25-57 the year before)
Melo: 43-39 (after going 17-65 the year before) — the year they lost to the wolves for OBZ’s first playoff series victory
Lebron: 35-47 (17-65 the year before) and with WItt coaching no less!
So before we get so excited about comparing Mayo to the 03 draft class, right now, the Grizz are on pace to win 5 more games than last season. I recognize that comparing teams is difficult and there were other player/coaching moves that affected records, but the bottom line is there is no way that OJ is as good as those players.
by Sterno on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
What about Foye
He’s played significantly better since he moved over to SG. There is a lot of comparison to Mayo here and I see why as that is a sore spot but that is in the past.
If Foye consistantly plays well at SG it seems very unlikely and probably not advisable for the Wolves to spend $50 million bucks for a player at that position.
I’d say if Foye averages 18+ and has a solid 3pt percentage it would make a deal for Gordon very tough.
Boy...
…if he plays like this until the end of the year, it will be tough. Well, it will be tougher. I think they then do what they can to find a solid 3 instead of a 2. If they pull off a Mike Miller trade this year it will be very interesting to see how they spend the money.
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I wanted to wait
until I’d actually seen Mayo play to make a comment, but now that I’ve seen him a grand total of twice (once at usc and last night), it seems to me that he’s better than Gordon, and that he’s a different kind of player – I think he does a lot more, especially on his drives. More creative passer too. I think he’s more than a shooter, but I think he’s more than a scorer too.
On a side note, his D, in my opinion, wasn’t as good as advertised, but I don’t think it was bad either, and he’s clearly giving a good effort.
I wanted to do a follow up to this post but ran out of time...
…but I honestly don’t see it with Mayo. I don’t see anything but average passes and defense. He spent a ton of time at the perimeter last night and most of his passes were to the open man on the wing or at the top of the key. He is clearly under control and that is very impressive for a player of his age and experience. I can see that and I think that is his biggest leg up on Gordon. However, I really don’t see the passing and defense being anything special. Every play he made last night Foye can make. That being said, the control thing is huge and it isn’t reflected in any sort of stat. He’s cool out there and there’s no denying that.
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yeah, I agree for the most part,
and I like your point about control too – indeed impressive for a 20-year-old playing in a ridiculously fast-paced league. Interestingly Mayo seems to be one of those rare guys who’s a better pro than college player.
I didn’t see great D either. Frankly I think his athletic ability is overrated, from what I saw last night anyways – he’s not exceptionally quick, doesn’t play above the rim, etc. Foye just shot over him a couple of times. I guess I saw a couple of things from him that I really liked. First, he seems to have a really nice touch going to the basket. It’s nice when your 6’4 rookie shooting guard can finish inside; I can think of 3 occasions on which he did so. Then where was a good, not great but good pass, he was on the L side and drove, didn’t see any options, then sort of turned around and passed to Warrick, who missed an open 18-footer. It was a good fundamental pass, and for me was emblematic of his game, he really looks like a nice team player.
To me he just kind of seems like a headier guy than Gordon. I don’t know if that makes sense…but sometimes it’s tough just to play real fundamental team ball. Mayo I think does it pretty nicely. This goes to your in control point I think – he always seems to be playing a real nice team game. I don’t generally get that impression from Gordon. I like him too…but Mayo seems to have this weird intangible quality of making his team better. I really enjoyed watching him.
I even kind of think there are hints of Brandon Roy in his game. Not that I think they’re similar as players. I just say that for this reason: Mayo always seems to be going kind of slow…yet he’s doing things, he’s seeing things, that are making his team better.
Anyways I’ll shut up now with my generalizations about someone I’ve seen for a grand total of 88 minutes. ;)
by plinytheelder on Jan 8, 2009 1:37 AM CST up reply actions
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