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Diamond Ratings; Corey Brewer


I don't know how I found this, but it's a system that tries to unearth the most likely breakout performers by looking at their per minute production. Essentially the idea is that if a player is productive off the bench per minute, and (here's the subjective part it, which the author admits) they are capable of being a starter and thus earn starter's minutes, then the said player should still produce at the same rate, just with more minutes per game. Make sense? Good.

 

Some of the guys on this year's top ten, given this thought process, makes sense: M. Speights, Gortat, DeAndre Jordan, JaVale McGee, and Roy Hibbert (for examples).

 

So I got to wondering who on the Wolves, if any, would merit a 'breakout' watch based on this system? Using their formula and win% as the per minute production stat (again, what they use), hit the jump for the top TWolves breakout candidates.

Star-divide

The Twolves Breakout Player list!!!

1. Stewie Pecherov, 14.75 diamond rating

2. Ryan Hollins, 13.57 diamond rating

3. Ramon Sessions, 10.08 diamond rating (I know, he's already 'broken out,' but what the hell)

4. Corey Brewer, 4.88 diamond rating

5. Sasha P., 2.67 diamond rating

6. Damien Wilkins, 1.31

 

So basically what I take out of this is that (in no particular order):

-Sessions is a very solid, steady starter

-Sasha Pavlovic and Damien Wilkins are what they are at this point, and that is Role Player(s)

-Hollins and Stewie P. might surprise as the season goes on, although Stewie P. is my candidate for this year's Craig Smith impersonator (that player who's really good at one thing to the detriment of all else on the court).

-Corey Brewer has not lived up to expectations or his development schedule.

 

This brings me to part 2 of this post: what are we supposed to make of Corey Brewer?

After reading this article, I got to thinking about Brewer's preseason and whether or not he can transfer it to the regular season. Where I ended up was with the realization that perhaps Brewer is closer to changing games positively for us than I initially thought.

 

Looking at his preseason averages some things stood out:

Pts/g = 16.8!

Reb/g = 4.6

Stls/g = 2.4

Asts/g = 1.6

FTA/g = 8.8!

 

Do I think Brewer will average over 16 a game this year? Not in my wildest dreams. Could he average 4 boards and a couple steals a game? Certainly. That leaves us with FTAs. I couldn't figure out whether or not these kinds of per game numbers are really good or just so-so (understanding that it'd be fantastic if we got this from Brewer this year), so I turned to Basketball-reference for some help. I'll get to my findings in a second, but the short story is that, in my opinion, if Brewer can get to the line at a good to solid rate this year and maintains his rebounding and steals/game rates, we will have found ourselves at player at the SG position.

Look at this. This assumes Brewer averages 12 pts, 4 boards, 2 steals, and 4 FTA's a game. That is some good company. The one guy that jumps out at me the most is Kendall Gill, probably because I remember how good at stealing he was. I'd take Gill-like production from Brewer over Brew's career. But some of the other guys aren't too shabby either.

So what's Hoopus' take on Brewer? Confused like me? Optimistic? Cynical? Cautiously intrigued?

And in case you're wondering what company Brewer would be in if he maintained his small sample size preseason production throughout the season? Don't look unless you want to scratch your head even more.

Poll
Brewer will help us win most if...
...he averages over 12 points a game.
23 votes
...he averages over 4 boards and 2.5 steals a game.
9 votes
..he is able to average over 4.5 FTAs per game.
5 votes
...he becomes a legitimate defensive stopper.
32 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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yes sir

He helps us most if he does the last three (rebounds, steals, free throws, and defense).

by littleboxes on Oct 21, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Corey Brewer

Very good article, and I like how my article was featured in the post….

by MNTwolvesanalyst on Oct 21, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions  

That's good company...

if he can avg 12 pts, 4 boards, 2 steals, and 4 FTA’s a game with range to 3pt land then I think he is our starting 2 for the future.

by Wolf21 on Oct 21, 2009 11:16 PM CDT reply actions  

I think

His greatest (long-shot?) assets would be defensive stopper (#1 – which he is already supposed to be) and 3-point specialist (#2). I like the other attributes too, but, to me, these would primarily be what I would like to see from him.

by Boss10 on Oct 22, 2009 5:00 AM CDT reply actions  

At this point...

He needs to build confidence offensively, and I think the best thing for him would be to get to the foul line as much as possible because he shoots well from there and doing so would put more pressure on his defender than spotting up and making jump shots. But his main strength is making things happen on both ends by playing good D, crashing the offensive glass (especially when Love is out), and creating turnovers.

by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 AM CDT reply actions  

Teams need guys like Corey Brewer

because he can do a lot of damage without needing the ball in his hands. I think the question is whether he tightens up his offense enough to be a legit role playing starter. If not, he will still have a good career as a bench energy guy. Let’s hope these last few games are something he can keep up, because it would be absolutely huge if we could end the season feeling confident about a Flynn/Brewer backcourt of the future.

by Rascal Flatts on Oct 22, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm not sure I accept the premise to be honest.....

With only intuition to go on, I think the Wolves are an example of what happens when you give players starters minutes who are ultimately only good enough for role player minutes or give them too much responsibility on offense.

I’d tend to think you see the Law of Diminishing Returns when the minutes increase and patchier performances.

Judd: "...I've since watched some Steven Seagal movies and I realise that pressure points are no laughing matter.".

by Auswolf on Oct 25, 2009 5:24 AM CDT reply actions  

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