What they lost; what they gain, pt. 1: Bassy and Flynn
by Stop-n-Pop on Oct 25, 2009 7:00 PM CDT
49 comments
One of the big questions heading into the season is how will all of the new faces fill the roles of the dearly departed? How will Jonny Flynn's minutes compare to Sebastian Telfair's? What about Ramon Sessions and Kevin Ollie? Who will replace Mike Miller? Are Ryan Hollins, Brian Cardinal, and Oleksiy Pecherov significant upgrades over Jason Collins, Craig Smith, and Mark Madsen? Let's start with the point guard spot.
The biggest problem with point guard projections for the Wolves is that Jonny Flynn is a rookie. There's really no sure-fire way to go about projecting college stats into the pros but the good folks at Basketball Prospectus do their best with the SCHOENE system (NOTE: You can buy the SCHOENE spreadsheet by clicking here.) They project Flynn and Bassy as follows:
| Jonny Flynn | Sebastian Telfair | |
| 2p% | .433 | .415 |
| Ast% | .076 | .074 |
| TO% | .179 | .160 |
| oRTG | 103.6 | 104.3 |
| dRTG | 106.8 | 107.0 |
| Win% | .395 | .412 |
| WARP | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| FTA% | .114 | 0.77 |
SCHOENE projects Flynn to be the much more versatile and effective scorer, with similarity scores close to DJ Augustin and Deron Williams rather than Darrick Martin and Geoff Huston. They both run about a -3 OE/DE differential and they are in the same ballpark in everything except FTA%. What should stick out as a big positive for Flynn is that he is projected to keep it close in the turnover department as a rookie on a team with fewer scoring options. Is this stat line good enough? Do you expect more?
What we will be keeping a look at in terms of comparing Flynn to Bassy is this: Ast%/TO%, oRTG/dRTG, FTA%, and shooting. How does Flynn distribute and take care of the ball, how does his team perform while he's out there, how much does he get to the line, and how well does he shoot it?
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Good stuff
I got the Prospectus on Wednesday and finished it today.
Question about it: when looking at the individual players, do you think the various ratings (-5 to +5) or WARP are a better gauge for a player’s productivity? There’s some discrepancies in that some guys have positive ratings but negative WARPs and vice versa.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 25, 2009 7:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a good question...
….and I think ultimately I’d go with WARP.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Oct 25, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Bassy did lead us in +/- last year
A product of very clearly being the only real point guard on the roster, thus being the only consistent playmaker.
I definitely expect Flynn to be a better and more efficient scorer. I think anybody would expect that. Assists….we’ll see. If Jonny can tally the kind of assists Bassy did last year, I’ll be pretty pleased. I also expect Flynn’s defensive rating to be better in the long run.
But ya…assists is the big number I’ll be watching. Bassy has numerous faults, but court vision definitely isn’t one of them…Telfair’s an extremely gifted playmaker. Flynn needs to hit the 6apg mark that Bassy did last year to really put himself ahead in this.
by Oceanary on Oct 25, 2009 8:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Flynn's ability to learn
how to orchestrate the offense – when to pass, when to shoot, when to attack, when to pull it out, when to make the simple play versus the home run play, etc., etc. – will be the deciding factor, because Bassy is currently the superior floor general. Flynn is a better Fantasy pick. I think without question a 2nd year, 3rd year, or – who knows – may be even second half of this season Flynn will be the all around better PG. But he needs to learn how to run an NBA offense first.
In terms of 2PT %, his summer league and preseason numbers seem to indicate that he will exceed the SCHOENE projections. His jumper seems as good if not better than Telfair’s plus he is already a far superior finisher in the paint.
by Rascal Flatts on Oct 25, 2009 8:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's my question:
What can we expect from Flynn in the future? I’ve heard comparisons ranging from Kevin Johnson to Chris Paul. The comparison to KJ seems about right but what are we expecting from him statistically as he nears his prime? Would a stat line look like this:
19 PPG; 3 RPG; 6 APG; 1.5 SPG; 36% 3P; 48% FG ?
I’m just curious…
by SF on Oct 25, 2009 11:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That would be an optimistic figure
But not unrealistic.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 26, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Earl Watson is a more reasonable low end estimate. At least among the names I’ve heard mentioned in comparison.
by littleboxes on Oct 26, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As the low-end. I’m not sure I agree, though. Flynn will be a better scorer than Watson ever was. You can already tell that he’s going to be a decent finisher at the rim and a solid foul drawer.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
by Xand1 on Oct 26, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Few PGs terrorize a basketball court like Earl Watson
You prayed for him to start poorly, so that he’d stop shooting it.
by aarendsvark on Oct 26, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a more physical Augustin, or a better TJ Ford could be a decent comparison. His ability to get in the lane and finish is exceptional for a pg. If he can get a consistent SnP he could be a 2nd/3rd option scoring on a nice team. I am really impressed with his defensive abilities and how he runs the p/r
by revprodeji on Oct 26, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of all the places for Flynn to compare favorably to Telfair
Turnovers are one of the last I’d predict. Flynn struggled with taking care of the ball at the college level, and will now be an NBA rookie. I’m not sure how he could be expected to get anything but worse, in the immediate future. (And that’s without the aforementioned drop in perimeter talent on the roster.)
by John Doe on Oct 26, 2009 3:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
I must admit that reading this post and these comments makes me think that we really lost something in Bassy. And then I remember all those nights last year where Bassy’s fatal flaw was about the most frustrating aspect of following the Wolves—if he could just score we might be able to win some more of these games!
Bassy’s +/- last year is a testament to his vision and how hard he has worked to become a better player. But let’s be realistic here—Bassy’s not a starting PG on a playoff/championship caliber team unless his backcourt mate is named either Lebron, Dwayne, or Kobe. His assist rate and playmaking were unexpected bright spots on an otherwise dreadful dreadful team. How about Bassy on defense? How about Bassy nailing a 2 when the entire defense collapses on Love (or an erratically driving Mike Miller)?
Flynn and Bassy are two different types of players, in my mind. Watching some of those Flynn highlight videos makes that abundantly clear—Flynn is aggressive, strong, and appears to be an equal blend of scorer and playmaker. Bassy seems like a good PG for Flip in that he’s a distributor first and foremost with an occasional drop added to the scoring bucket.
The guy who I think we should be comparing Bassy to is Ramon Sessions. Ramon strikes me as what Bassy could have been (or what people thought he would be)—a great passer/assist guy, very good 2 pt shot and enough ability to collect fouls to keep defenses on their toes. Bassy’s size will always be a defensive limitation to a certain extent (same with Flynn—we’ll see if his crazy athleticism and strength will in effect neutralize his height disparity), but otherwise I think Ramon is a better comp. Anyone have projection numbers for Ramon this year?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 26, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Flynn is a pit bull, Telfair is a poodle.
by LoveTo on Oct 26, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair to Telfair and poodles
Telfair was waaaay overhyped, but ended up being a solid basketball player. And poodles are fine dogs if you don’t have the ridiculously groomed version… Anyway, here’s hoping Flynn doesn’t maul any 10 year olds.
by aarendsvark on Oct 26, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like Rambis is going to keep Flynn on a fairly short leash in the early going…consciously pushing him into becoming more of a pure point and better defender.
Flynn’s numbers are going to depend on 1) how soon do they start letting him play to his strengths 2) how much pt does Sessions get 3) how many touches does Jefferson get?
Speaking of Al…this whole achilles- flu- achilles again thing is starting to look a little fishy. I read he may not play on Wed. now.
by DougW on Oct 26, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about the achilles...
…but if he has the pig flu I completely sympathize. I had it and it’s nasty. I was down for 1 week and I’m still feeling it 2 weeks later. It completely messes up your upper respiratory system.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Oct 26, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, that sucks
hopefully I don’t catch it from reading your blog :)
I think this Jefferson injury is either more serious or there is some behind the scenes discord on Al’s role. We’re getting hourly updates on Love’s hand injury, but both Al and the team have been pretty mum on his status.
by DougW on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, thanks for the information.
Now I know I have another week of coughing fits to roll through. On the plus side, I’m getting my revenge by increasing my bacon intake. Take that, pigs!
This is Chopper Dave's made for TV movie, Blades Of Vengeance. See, he's a chopper pilot by day, but by night he fights crime as a werewolf... YEAH!
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Oct 26, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with wath you’re doing here is predicting Telfairs numbers even though we already know the prediction is off. This because Telfair really dominated in college but couldn’t keep it up in the NBA because he was too short/too young/…
So the .415 number is a number he never achieved and was never really close too either .. or am I missing something here?
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Oct 26, 2009 9:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Telfair never played in college
The numbers must be based off what he has done as a pro so far.
by oblivionspocket on Oct 26, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, I ment he dominated in high school; even still; there’s a .415 number for 2pt% there .. where did you get that number because I thought it was significantly lower?
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Oct 26, 2009 10:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ya
I thought so too.
If we compare Bassy’s age 21 and 22 seasons with Session’s age 21 and 22 seasons:
Name FG% TS% Ast%
Bassy (21) .371 .458 22.7
Ramon (21) .436 .507 43.5 (small sample size noted)
Bassy (22) .401 .462 27.7 (career high FG%)
Ramon (22) .445 .525 34.6
Flynn’s year last year:
Jonny (19) .460 .524 NA
And for context, Bassy last year was:
Bassy (23) .383 .481 26.1
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 26, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That reminds me
Sessions is really good. I hope he’s on the floor a lot, unless his time in Milwaukee was just a mirage.
by aarendsvark on Oct 26, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he is projecting Telfair’s numbers by plugging his NBA stats into a system designed to project the stats of college players, he might be getting goofy numbers. I do not know how that would cause Telfair’s shooting percentage to go up, unless it’s normal for players to shoot better in pro ball than in college.(that would be strange)
Last year, Bassy shot around .399 from two point range. Over his career, he has shot about .413 from two point range. This is just according to the numbers given on nba.com. So, I could see where .415 is coming from for 2p%. It’s his three point shooting that drags his total fg% down to around .389.
by oblivionspocket on Oct 26, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No sir.
Sessions vs Bassy
Flynn vs Foye/Miller (whichever was the distributor)
Brewer vs Foye/Miller(whichever not above)
Unless you consider Bassy the starting pg? But I think his role was more complimentary as Sessions will be this year.
by revprodeji on Oct 26, 2009 10:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I see it as..
Sessions vs. Foye (guys who played both guard spots)
Flynn vs. Telfair (Telfair was the starting point guard last year once Foye moved to the 2)
Ellington/Pavlovic vs. Miller (2/3s who are supposed to shoot the 3)
Brewer 09 vs. Brewer 08/No Brewer
by LoveTo on Oct 26, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This question is more pertinant to the previous post comparing Flynn’s preseason output to the other rookie PGs, but what do you put the +/- at for Flynn’s ranking in the 2009 PG crop say 5 years down the line? There are so many young guys with very high ceilings, but with a lot of growth needed, that I think it’s impossible to predict an ultimate ranking. Who knows if Flynn will be better than Jennings (or Rubio, or Curry or Holiday). The only way I can think of this is as a probability, and as much as I’d like to think Flynn is as likely to be in the top 2 as out of it, I might have to put the +/- at 3 or even 4. If one or more of the sleepers really develops at the NBA level, Flynn could be a heck of a PG and still rank #5 in this class. Of course that would be a bit disappointing for a number 6 pick, but I won’t think of it that way.
by dropstep on Oct 26, 2009 12:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
3 min
Here’s the thing for me about your setup:
How are you defining point guard? Tyreke could be a huge star in five years, but is he grouped among these guys? Or are we more focused on ‘pure’ point guards, in which case guys like Curry are going to be more on the edge of inclusion. Lastly, how are we going to know who’s better—and I’m specifically thinking of the Deron Williams/CP3 dichotomy. CP3 is a fantastic player, but you know what? Deron Williams ain’t so bad himself. He plays a different game, though, in a different system with different support players, etc etc. So who’s to say if he hadn’t been in NO instead that he might have more/less success?
Given all that, and assuming no major injuries for any of these guys, in five years Flynn will be in the top grouping of players. Whether he’s first or third will come down to what you value in players and what you like to see in basketball. I think the odds are that there will be a top grouping of 2-4 players (depending on whether you include guys like Tyreke), a secondary group of 3-4 solid rotation guys/borderline starters, and then a bunch of guys who either flame out or regress/get ‘figured out’ or are simply busts.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 26, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
can you imagine
Flynn in Sloan’s half-court pnr offense? The man would have a field day all day everyday. 20 pts, 10 asst would be easy for him. I have to admit that I am pretty pumped about Flynn. His personality/Charisma/Swagger and shiftiness/athleticism trump any size concerns. The guy can flat out ball. Any system that allows him to pass to the open guy or drive into the lane he will excel in. So long as they don’t want him to just shoot the three.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 26, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little nitpick
Paul plays with an inferior supporting cast and at a slower pace and still has better stats. Deron’s an All-Star and maybe an All-Pro at best; Paul’s a possible all-timer.
by nja700 on Oct 26, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, I’m looking at this as grouping, rather than individual ranking. The question is, how big would the top tier group have to be to be likely to include Flynn. You suggest he will be more or less inseperable from any other top PG. I think it is just as likely he’s in a second tier, behind a very small first tier that could easily include Rubio. Or not Rubio. I just find it very hard to believe that with all the talent at that position he will be one of the top 2 guys. For all the arguments you can make for Flynn, you can make just as many for a lot of these other young guys. I’m not including Evans as a PG, but decided after his preseason assist totals to include Curry, who will push Ellis back to his natural 2 position this season.
by dropstep on Oct 26, 2009 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
then who do you rank
above Flynn?
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 26, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I see it
Holiday has had no experience leading a team against talented opposition…neither has Jennings. Further, Jennings makes some poor decisions, is pretty frail and jacks up way to many shots. Curry will be pretty good, but I think Flynn will be a much better defender and is a better passer to boot. Evans requires a dribble drive offense to penetrate. He needs the ball in his hands but I am not sure if he makes his teammates better, which is one of the PGs jobs. Did I miss anyone?
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 26, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lawson
I think Lawson has great potential to develop into one of the top tier guys. His worst case I think is the second tier.
Here’s my question—who’s going to be the Steve Nash of this year’s PGs? Calathes? Beabois (sp?)? There’s bound to be one guy drafted late in the first or in the second round who ends up in the second tier at least, and maybe in the first tier.
Thoughts? Ideas?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 26, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say it is
between three.
Beabois, Calathes and Maynor. I would say mills, but unfortunately unlike Flynn and Lawson, he is both short and slight. Rereading the draft write-ups, the consensus on Flynn was that if he were taller he would challenge for the #1 pick. If I have learned anything…it is that height is overrated for top end athletes. If you are a marginal player, you need the height advantage to compensate. But if you are naturally the far and away best player already…the height isn’t the issue.
I would guess that Lawson will end up being top 5 in this class.
To sumamarize, Rubio, Flynn, Lawson, and Curry plus one of the three above will end up being in the top 5.
Exclusions:
Holiday – it is just too hard to learn how to be the floor general at the pro level. He needed to start learning it earlier…he looks lost.
Jennings – his maturity issues will cause him problems in the future and he will be wildly inconsistent and will never lead any team to a championship.
Evans – I think he ultimately moves off the ball and would classify him as a slashing SG with ball skills. Takes way to many shots to be a PG.
Thoughts?
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 27, 2009 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holiday is a PG
I don’t think you followed Holiday too closely. In high school he was sometimes discussed as a combo guard, but he was the rated as the #1 overall PG and #2 overall prospect in the 2008 HS class. He was recruited by UCLA to play point, but was moved off the ball when Collison unexpectedly returned for his senior year. He had a disappointing year playing out of position and in the worst offense in major college ball, but has a cieling as high or higher than any other PG in the class. He has natural PG skills with excellent court vision and a high Bball IQ. If the top tier of PG goes 5 deep, he’s as good a bet to be in it as anyone. It is hard to bust as 17 pick, but if he doesn’t mature into a top guard he will be as big a disappointment as anyone in this draft. His achilles heel is probably assertiveness, but he is very young, he has time to build his confidence.
I do agree on Jennings, but also believe that someday he may get it and put his skills to good use. Although the position seems to require more maturity than any other, it’s not like there have never been successful headcases running the point.
I agree that Evans is a SG and don’t include him in the group depth chart.
Lawson and Collison are very interesting and linked in that they had very successful college careers. I think the enthusiasm for both was decreased by their size first and foremost, and secondarily by the fact that they were a little older and were seen to have less upside. Interestingly, Flynn’s size did not hurt him despite the fact that both these guys had better performance stats than Johnny. Lawson seems ready to go now, and will get the chance. If he cracks the top 5 he will prove a lot of folks wrong, but it seems unwise to bet against him. Collison needs more work, despite his 4 years in school, and needs to become more authoritative and decisive. According to what I read he never learned to be vocal on the court, for which I assume he can thank Ben Howland. The good is that he will learn behind Chris Paul, the bad is whether he’ll ever get the chance to do more than that. Still, the guy shot 50% from 3 in college. I don’t think he’ll get the chance to play his way into the top 5, but he’s got as much speed as Flynn and a better shot, so I think he’ll prove a lot of folks wrong as well.
I was never that sold on Maynor, but I think he’ll be solid. I never saw much of Calathes or Beaubois, but they do have potential. I wasn’t too big a fan of MIlls.
by dropstep on Oct 27, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I look at Flynn
and see the leadership right off the bat and know he can play the pnr at the pro level if they let him. What we have seen of Flynn is him working on his weak areas, which has to be pretty promising.
I have seen a lot of Curry love going around for ROY now that Griffin is down for 6+ weeks. While Curry will be solid, I think he will have a hard time leading on a GS team that includes egos like Ellis and Jackson. That is a lot for a rookie to handle…even if his dad played. Curry won’t be a bust, but he definitely isn’t in the running for the best point in the class.
I think out of my list, the ones that I think are fluid are Rubio, Curry and Holiday. Rubio has all of the skills, but needs to show maturity and leadership in order to be effective, Holiday needs the opportunity to get reps and work on having to make the play calls. Something just seems off to me about Curry and I can’t tell what it is. Part of me thinks he is also a SG trapped in a PG’s body who has been convinced he has to be a PG.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 27, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was with you on Curry
I would have been too afraid to pull the trigger on Curry with a #6 pick. But he has played well enough as a PG in the preseason that I’m changing my mind. Certainly his shooting isn’t there yet, but he has firmly pushed Ellis back to his natural SG spot and has been racking up the assist totals. Nelson, who tends to be hard on rookies has been very enthusiastic. Just now on Chad Ford’s chat he had this to say, “Until then, keep an eye on Steph Curry. Don Nelson has been using those Nash references that we were using during the draft. The more I watch him, the more I see him as a Nash type player in a few years.” We’ll see.
by dropstep on Oct 27, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll never ding...
….Kahn for taking Flynn once Rubio fell in his lap but I’ll go back to my final draft board:
Keep the picks (in order of preference at each spot):
* #5- Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, James Harden
* #6- Demar DeRozan, James Harden
* #18- DeJuan Blair, Ty Hansbrough, Austin Daye, E
* #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
* #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
* #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list
Rubio shoot-the-moon:
* Trade #6 and 18 to Memphis for the #2 pick
* #2- Ricky Rubio
* Trade #5 to GSW or the Knicks for the highest Curry-related bid or draft Harden or Evans
* Draft Demar DeRozan (if the trade is made)
* #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
* #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
* #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list
Here is the top tier:
1. Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196-big)
2. Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803-guard)
3. James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793-guard)
4. Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179-wing)
5. Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668-guard)
6. Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4-big)
7. DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403-big)
I will never get how Lawson wasn’t viewed as a top flight PG prospect.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Oct 27, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Lawson
will easily be considered a top 5 PG from this class. Right there with Rubio, Flynn, probably Curry and either Calathes, Beabois or Maynor. Evans is a SG Combo guard. I would not want him to be the floor general on my team…but playing with someone like Rubio who doesn’t need to shoot a lot would be to his benefit.
I always come back to thinking that we overanalyze players for the draft. We look at position and immediately cross off people who don’t fit our “ideal” size. A baller is a baller. Blair…good pickup. Thabeet…not so much (at least not for that high in the draft).
As to why Lawson wasn’t viewed as a top flight PG…who knows. Maybe it had to do with how much talent was surrounding him. When scouts watch game tape alot of what they see is only the difference between that player and those around them. But when you watch UNC…you had to compare him to players that were almost as talented. Scouts then wonder if you could do what you did with less talented teammates. Fair or not, that seems to be the MO.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 27, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age
There’s a big difference between a 22 year old rookie (Lawson) and a 20 year old rookie (Flynn). I know this has been hashed out before, but there are only two factors that can (relatively) trump talent, and that is size (Tyreke Evans for example) and age (Rubio). Lawson’s talent is easily top two amongst these point guards, maybe even tops, but he’s on the wrong end of the size and age factors.
Consider that KG, as a 19 year old rookie, averaged 10.4 pts and 6.3 rebs per game. By age 22 he was at his career average (+/- a half point or rebound). Age matters because imagine the kind of prospect Flynn would be if he stayed in college for two more years. Better than Lawson in this last draft? Maybe. So here’s the question, then—would stayed in college for three years Flynn be better than second year pro Flynn, or, which scenario yields more upside? I think most of us expect Lawson to produce right away, and pretty much what you see is what you’re going to get with him. Flynn we expect to see some good things, and then see improvement the following years. Will age 22 Flynn be better than age 22 Lawson? I think y’all get my point.
The last caveat I’ll through out there is that Lawson should hope to god that his career arc follows one other smallish 22 year old rookie point guard. This guard’s rookie season numbers were 5.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.3 steals in just over 18 minutes per game. Each year he improved until he ended his career with averages of 13.1 points, 10.5 assists, and 2.2 steals per game while leading the NBA in assists at one point 9 years in a row. That player? John Stockton.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 27, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Visually, Flynn does have one pro-level skill
Finishing inside. The current rules improve his pro potential.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 28, 2009 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if
Lawson becomes the next Stockton and Flynn the next Kevin Johnson, will we be down on the Kahn for trading away Lawson??
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Oct 28, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking into the future
I can’t say I’d bet on any one guy to be better than Flynn, but it’s always easier money to bet the field. Rubio and Holiday are much younger with better size and very good instincts for the point. Jennings is also younger with great potential. Flynn is small but fast, but can you guarantee that he will be better than Lawson or Collison, since that’s their basic resume as well. Curry looks like he can play the point pretty well, and could add electric scoring to good playmaking. Of course not all of these guys are going to develop into top tier guys, but surely a few will. Most were drafted on potential, and that includes Flynn, who was not dominant in college. So, I don’t think there’s any way to tell how this group will shake out.
by dropstep on Oct 26, 2009 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would feel pretty
comfortable saying that Flynn will be top 3 at the very least. Likely with Rubio being top 3 as well. I was watching highlights from his last game…wow. That man could make crazy passes in the triangle. I have to admit though that a rubio Derozan backcourt would look pretty good based upon that game highlight clip.
I would argue however that Flynn seems to have the best leadership instincts out of the PG class. He just handles himself like a floor general beyond his years. Last time I saw that personality was Terrell Brandon…who happened to mentor Billups as I remember. At some point I was pretty high on Holiday and I like Lawson. Jennings is just too immature to be an effective leader from the PG spot. That may change…but I never bet on “maturity” from professional ball players who never played in college for 2 years or more. Reason being…they get too much money too fast without the tools to handle it.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 26, 2009 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jennings
I like the potential, but I do agree with you on the maturity issue. He maybe a great PG, or Solid, or out of the league in three years. He was the one that I figured McHale would have taken if he had still been in charge.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Oct 28, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was a part of me that
wanted to take him…until I heard him speak. Midwestern fans have very little patience with that type of personality. Flynn is a much better fit and the MN ladies have always loved their spanish looking men. Just think of all the female fans Wally had.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 28, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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