Britt Robson's 2009-10 Timberwolves Thumbnail Season Preview
This is the first post at Canis Hoopus by one of the best NBA writers in the nation, and hands down the best in Minnesota. Since we hope it won't be his last, please welcome Britt Robson with open arms and thoughtful comments. Or else!
First of all, my apologies to readers who wondered what happened to my Wolves writing. This summer I was approached by sportsillustrated.com regarding a regular column about the NBA in general. Since my last half-dozen items for Secrets of the City had been done gratis (through no fault of the site’s owners; it is a brutal economy and they carried me through the end of last season), this was a perfectly timed opportunity.
With a bird in the hand I went off looking for a place to post my Wolves stuff on a regular basis. Without boring you with the details, the rotten economy and the current low interest in the Wolves combined to make it extremely difficult to write about this team for even my relatively low wage (and yes, I understand many quality bloggers don’t get paid at all). The alternative is to set up my own site and ask all of you to chip in while soliciting corporate sponsors. But I’m lousy at that kind of thing, and frankly I’m so busy with other sports, music and politics assignments right now that not having the obligation of constantly doing the Wolves beat is a temporary blessing.
That said, I’ve been on this beat since 1991—coach Jimmy Rodgers was making his Wolves debut and the Twins were headed to the World Series when my first City Pages cover story on the team was published—and I want to keep it going in some way shape or form. Where, specifically, I still don’t know. But since I’ve always admired the guys and commenters at Canis, I decided this would be a good place to put up a necessarily quick and dirty Wolves preview. I’ve got a podcast today at si.com and when they asked me who else I wrote for, I impulsively said canishoopus.com. I guess I better get something up!
So, that’s three paragraphs about myself (now four) and nothing thus far about the Wolves. That’s what happens when you hit the big time.
The team you will see tonight is a disrupted work in progress. There are injuries large and small, roster imbalances, stylistic incompatibilities, and the abiding issue that the front office doesn’t even try to hide, which is that winning games is a distant third on the priority list, behind developing talent and securing future pieces (like a choice lottery pick). It is frequently going to be ugly.
In that sense, the preseason was predictably discouraging. The two best backcourt players by a wide margin—Ramon Sessions and Jonny Flynn--are very similar, and apparently too small to play together very often. The two best frontcourt players by a wide margin—Al Jefferson and Kevin Love—are likewise similar and undersized as a tandem, with the added detriment of, respectively, recovering from injury and being injured. A fifth player, Ryan Gomes, is a quality glue guy, a coach’s dream, who would be a valuable complement for any team in the NBA.
With the possible exception of Brian Cardinal, none of the players on the rest of the roster would make the nine-man rotation on a quality contender.
I understand that this noticeably excludes Corey Brewer, who after a woeful start shooting the ball, has had a fine preseason. I admit that a lot of my bias against Brewer is visual—he may be the skinniest NBA player I’ve ever seen, a virtual pencil from his neck to the ankles. It is great to see him begin to play with more confidence—his insecurity vied with his fundamentals as the main saboteur of his offense in previous years—but I don’t think he gets the call on those kamikaze drives to the hoop during the regular season, and I think as the regular rotation guys now hog the minutes, he is going to wear down and become less effective. That said, on this team he probably has an upside of 15-22 minutes as an energy boost and defensive irritant, so long as he cuts waaay back on his shots and exercises better judgment at the offensive end.
I also understand that I am dismissing some players for whom the jury should still be out, particularly seven-footers Ryan Hollins and Oleksiy Pecherov. While Kevin Love’s broken hand was extremely discouraging for Wolves fans—the fourth year in a row the first-round pick has been waylaid; Flynn and Rubio out to bubble wrap themselves throughout the next autumn—it does have the benefit of showcasing these big men for the next 6 weeks or so, and perhaps even allowing the slimmed-down Al Jefferson to play where he belongs. Of the two, Hollins seems to have the far greater upside—he actually wants to play the pivot rather than off-guard-- but even he lacks court vision seems surprised and mentally ambushed by the traffic whizzing and bashing by in the paint. Pecherov is a Euro big man, which is to say he can shoot far better than he can defend and seems more comfortable in general the further he gets from the hoop.
But it isn’t just the inexperienced kids. Interior defense is going to be a horrible flaw for this ballclub all year long. Jefferson has shown very little inclination to improve that part of his game, so let’s get this out in the open right now. Whether it is Wittman, McHale, Kahn, or Rambis, the credibility really suffers when a stir is made about what Big Al "has to do" on the defensive end. No, he doesn’t. He can play half-assed defense and still be tops on the pecking order. And that is a fundamental reason why this team should be docked a notch when you’re looking at preparations and readiness for future improvement. Quality franchises commit to defense.
Then there is the issue of what to do with the triangle offense. It is a complex scheme that takes months to develop for even savvy veterans. The question remains whether the Wolves have the right personnel to implement it this year—outside shooters and deft-passing bigs are two key components to the system. Yeah, Kevin Love in the low block is a good fit in terms of ball movement, but I would imagine that Rambis is more interested in Jefferson as high post facilitator and Love as one of the orbiters cutting and spotting out at the corner baseline. Not only is Jefferson’s skill set much better suited to the two-man game and the clear-out isolations, but the clearcut strength of both Sessions and Flynn is in getting to the basket via penetration. So, it will be interesting to see going forward how much and how thoroughly the principles of the triangle are tried.
One thing I will credit Rambis and Kahn for is living up to their notion of a running game. The Wolves aren’t the Suns nor Warriors by any stretch, nor should be they be (both of those teams will be dreadful this season). But they raced for more than 16 fast break points per game in the preseason, after getting less than 11 last year. Running, even controlled running, is a way to get easy buckets or to draw the foul. Those whistles have thus far been the biggest upgrade in the regime switch from Wittman/McHale to Rambis/Kahn. Minnesota shot a whopping 62 more free throws—nearly 8 more per game—than their opponents this preseason. That, as much as anything, is why they were able to post a 3-5 record despite shooting just 41.9% from their field while allowing their opponents to nail 48.8% of their shots.
So, to recap, Love is hurt, Jefferson is dinged, Flynn may be felled with the flu tonight and a long season awaits. The squad has two quality point guards and no off guard; two quality power forwards and no center. They are thin, talent wise and physically. They have a tremendous amount to learn and many of the people learning it won’t be around in a year or two.
I’ve generally liked the whirlwind of change Kahn has wrought, but that stuff always looks better in the offseason than when the actual games are being played. The honeymoon for the new regime should probably still be in effect, but it will be a very very small gathering for most of the season, as casual fans decide they’ll check in when the wins start mounting, which is no time soon. Meanwhile, while replacing Kevin McHale was indeed the correct move and is endorsed by most of the fan base, die-hard and casual alike, the coterie of McHale loyalists aren’t without ammunition even this early in the year.
They are right to wonder, for example, how viciously McHale would have been roasted for dealing away Ty Lawson, who had a fabulous preseason and may end up being better than both Flynn and Ricky Rubio. Perhaps they watched the Wizards upset the Mavs last night in large part because of the play of Randy Foye off the bench, and the value of no-shoot Mike Miller on a squad that doesn’t have enough touches to go around. Or maybe they saw Bassy and the Rhino provide a non-embarrassing element to the Clippers’ bench depth in the loss to the Lakers.
Would the status quo under McHale won more games than the 20-25 the current configuration will probably register? Most likely, yes. Is the long-term future for this franchise brighter than it was a year ago? Slightly, yes. But only slightly, because throwing away the bad and setting the table for the good are important but relatively the easiest part of the rebuilding process. Getting the right, synergistic personnel—the top star or two, the vital secondary piece or two, and the appropriate glue around that core—that’s the hard part. And the work ahead.
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Comments
Thanks Britt
As a long time reader, I hope your new gig(s) work out and that you can find time to do a few wolves write-ups for us diehards this season.
by DR_JPK on Oct 28, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yay, Britt!
Glad to see your thoughts on the Wolves again, and its been good to see your work for SI about the league in general.
It is going to be an ugly year, and that frustrates me more than perhaps some of the other diehards on here, largely because, as you note, it remains to be seen whether Kahn (and to a lesser extent Rambis) is capable of actually using assets effectively to start winning, hopefully sooner rather than later.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 28, 2009 3:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What is the window on that triangle decision?
Before Love’s injury, I’d have suggested we’d see the triangle in fits and starts over the first third of the year. He was so clearly among the better-suited parts for the triangle, though, and now he’s out for (ta dah) that period more or less.
We’re about to see Rambis retreat from his triangle aspirations, I think, in short order. He’ll go to Flynn penetrating on pick and roll possessions. I betcha it happens until Love’s return at least.
Maybe we’ll see triangle stuff being folded in during the season’s last third, rather than its first? It would only be right for everything to happen backward.
by feral on Oct 28, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Extending the thought
How much of what we’ve seen is learning the triangle and how much is getting Flynn and others to work on stuff they’re not as good at? Is Rambis really taking the long view and sacrificing some wins now in order to give Flynn and others time to work on their games? I’d imagine, if that was the case, that it would pay large dividends next year and the years after. Otherwise why not just pick’n’roll it with Jonny and Ramon all night long? Seems to be the best way to scratch out wins.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Oct 28, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i got 4 free tickets for the 4th, im excited to see how some of the youngsters do
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Oct 28, 2009 3:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think they're going with the triangle full time
But it seemed like they showed in those last two preseason games that there are opportunities for guys to get to the hoop. In theory, the offense doesn’t require good players at certain positions; it just turned out that Jackson had two pitbull wing defenders with the Bulls and an electric two-way player in LA. The plays can be very simple to execute: how many times in the preseason did they run that give and go with an entry pass to the elbow?
I’m going to assume the team’s record is indicative of how they can perform in the regular season. To me, it looked like they were experimenting just as much as or more than other teams and that the last two games were more season warmups, and it would be wrongheaded to assume that their wins are flukes and their losses indicate fatal flaws (or even opinions related to that one on some level). They played two healthy East fringe playoff contenders and showed they could hang with that type of team on some nights without having two of their best guys in the lineup.
I don’t see why Jefferson’s role has to change much in the triangle enough that it takes away from his strengths. The main issue that takes a while to get is that it’s very flexible, and one of the spots occupied on the floor is still the left block. He’ll have to show more of his other facets, but he can still get a majority of his points on postups in this offense.
Good to read your insights again, Britt.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 28, 2009 3:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
preseason foes vs regular season foes
Paging—
Saying the Wolves finished 3-5 in the preseason and thus could be 30-50 in the regular season is one way of looking at it. And you could be right. But the Wolves didn’t play a single one of the five elite NBA teams this preseason (Lakers/Spurs/Celts/Magic/Cavs) and of the next consensus tier (Blazers/Mavs/Nugs/Jazz) they played only the Nuggets, and lost by 29. They played the woeful Bucks as often in 8 games as they will in 82; ditto the strong and emerging Bulls, but without Derrick Rose. Nevertheless I appreciate the optimism and love to be addressing arguments that come from that direction.
As for the triangle, I agree that the system itself can be somewhat neutral, but that’s sort of like systems in theory and systems in practice. In practice, outside shooters and good passing bigs have made the theory work best thus far.
by Britt Robson on Oct 28, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should've qualified that
I think their preseason indicates they’ll win some games against teams like the ones they played in the preseason; I harbor no illusions that they’ll win on the road against the top 5 (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Lakers, San Antonio) or that their loss to Denver wasn’t indicative of things that’ll happen during the season. Though I don’t think 30 wins is out of the question since many of the stats-based guys (basketball-reference, Basketball Prospectus, John Hollinger) are projecting that for them.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Oct 28, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Britt.
This was an incredibly pleasant surprise.
by TheH on Oct 28, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Always enjoy your writing, Britt.
Many thanks
Judd: "...I've since watched some Steven Seagal movies and I realise that pressure points are no laughing matter.".
by Auswolf on Oct 28, 2009 4:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Nice work as always.
I agree that the building portion of rebuilding is the toughest part. Tearing down is easier although I must give Kahn credit for recognizing it needed to be done and his effciency in doing it.
I don’t know if you were exactly making the point that Al’s true position is PF, but I will continue to disagree with anyone on that. Al’s got adequate length for the 5 (just not the height) and in an uptempo system in a league void of classic 7 footers, Al can be a upper echelon center IMO. Love might not be the ideal complement in the post given his height and athleticism though, but that’s a different argument.
by Blond Ricky on Oct 28, 2009 4:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll see how that holds
up in the event that we encounter Bynum – Gasol or Oden – LMA in a 7 game playoff series. I get that Al has adequate height, size, and length against a large swath of existing NBA Centers. But I’m worried about the teams we’d be playing when all the marbles are on the line. And these guys aren’t going anywhere for a long time.
by Rascal Flatts on Oct 28, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Though with the caveat that Al would be a good offensive 4 if paired with a perimeter-oriented 5. While that might be a good way to get the most out of Al on O, it might not make the most effective team. I wonder if Al could defend 4s any better than 5s, and if the hypothetical perimeter 5 could defend most centers better than Al.
by Dib432 on Oct 29, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Rambis
summed it up pretty well. Al is a center in a PF body. The fact is that if he wants to be a star he will have to work on his explosion training and stay lean to have enough movement to effectively play both sides of the ball at the 5. Last night just showed that he isn’t back from his injury because the man could barely jump. If he can get a good hop back, then he will be fine.
Love will also have to continue to drop fat and work on being more explosive. Neither of those guys are going to wow you with explosive moves, but they can get good enough to not be exposed so long as they play the proper position oriented game.
We could use another explosive 4/5 type for matchup reasons. But I have to think that a 2/3 or 3/4 (with emphasis on the 3) super athlete is at the top of our wish list.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 29, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Britt Robson's names draws a blank with Kahn
Britt,
I attended the interview that Dan Barrario at KFAN did with Rambis and Kahn a couple of weeks ago. I just happened to right the elevator down with them after they were done. So I asked Kahn if he had heard of Britt Robson who was the best writer about Timberwolves basketball in the Twin Cities. He said he wasn’t sure of who that was. Never fear, Britt, I told him that he should read you.
by jgale on Oct 28, 2009 4:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Different context or media manipulation?
While it is true that I haven’t asked for a sit down with Kahn or otherwise made much of a presence with him, I introduced myself to him at a media breakfast and he repeated my name with a familarity and greeting (I think he said “oh yes” ) that indicated he recognized the byline. On two subsequent occasions—I think it was the announcement of McHale’s dismissal and then again draft night— we had a brief reporter/source conversation outside the functional setting that made me believe he remembered me.
On the other hand, he probably has to do that with a dozen different people whose feelings might be hurt otherwise. Given his hectic off-season, I certainly wouldn’t begrudge him for not knowing me.
Either way, thanks for the kind words about me in his direction.
by Britt Robson on Oct 28, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players Traded
Lawson- It would have been hard to guess that Lawson would drop to 18. I wonder if we would have gone a different direction at either 5 or 6 if we would have known that? It seems that Kahn was really thinking we’d have Flynn and Evans or Harden at 5/6. Lawson at 18 would have been a nice pick there as a backup option to Flynn/potential starter. Given that Rubio/Flynn were the two BPAs it would have hard to take Lawson at 18.
Foye/Miller- I think a lot of casual fans will lament them being gone as they do well for a winning team (potentially?) in Washington. Still, we weren’t going anywhere with them.
Smith/Telfair- Same deal with these two. All 4 of these guys would have a place if we had a great top 5 of talent here, but we don’t. If we could have added that talent without first cleaning house then fine, keep them all, but that wasn’t possible.
by Blond Ricky on Oct 28, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What a Treat
To have the Best B-Ball writer I’ve ever read on this site. Great to have you onboard!!!
by Jose Cordoba on Oct 28, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is great news
Welcome Britt — since CH and your old blog were the two sites i checked out, this is WAY more efficient for me.
I want some SnP/Wyn/BR three-way!
by Sterno on Oct 28, 2009 5:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly.
The two best sources of Wolves coverage in one place.
I feel like buying a 24 pack and stocking up.
by Django Z on Oct 28, 2009 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to find Britt Robson, here. Now all of the best Wolves coverage is in one place.
It is a good year to have expanded your coverage league-wide. The Wolves are in major rebuilding mode, but the league as a whole is in great shape. When is the last time that so many playoff spots were up for grabs? And when is the last time that there were four teams with the kind of star-power that Boston, Orlando, LA, and San Antonio have? This should be a better season than last, which is saying something.
by Andy G on Oct 28, 2009 5:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome Britt.
Please indulge us Wolves fans once in a while. You’re far and away the best writer we’ve got. Don’t forget us, and good luck with SI
by SF on Oct 28, 2009 6:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome!
Britt, I’ve been reading you for years and was happy to see that you’ve got a gig at SI. Thanks for joining our little conclave!
by shboom on Oct 28, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yay!
Britt’s here!
I am doubly pleased because I learned of Canis Hoopus through the Britt column over at Secrets o’ the City.
If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments
by Jackdaw on Oct 28, 2009 11:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
eu·pho·ria (yo̵̅o̅ fôr′ē ə)
noun
a feeling of vigor, well-being, or high spirits
Etymology: ModL < Gr, power of bearing easily < euphoros, bearing well < eu- (see eu-) + pherein, bear
or .. as we now say it, finding out we won our first game, the NBA League Pass HD thing looks great and Britt Robson is back on the same day…
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Oct 29, 2009 5:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Britt
Glad to see you back – was wondering where you were at. Good luck at the SI site.
As for the Wolves, I have to admit being totally unenthusiastic for the season. I knew when McHale was not retained that we were in for another serious roster make over. What was so disappointing is what we got back was mainly expiring contracts and future picks. Not much in NBA talent.
Oh well – my tickets are paid for. Guess I will keep watching anyhow.
by Just A Fan on Oct 29, 2009 9:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Britt
Good to see you here, although it will be sporadically. Thanks for the take on the season. I think that the Wolves may surprise you.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Oct 29, 2009 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Britt
Hate to say this, as I know Britt is very well respected, but people, myself especially, don’t come here for the Rake take on basketball. We come here for raw analysis and in depth stats. The stuff Britt does, though respected, is somewhere in between newspaper work and fluff.
I’d love for Britt to post articles, here, but don’t just repost your Rake angles and takes. Do some in depth analysis and get out of the box a bit. I would have probably read this article over Reusse in the Strib, but when I come here, I want something completely different, and this isn’t it.
by Mac of the MIAC on Oct 29, 2009 3:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
lighten up, Francis.
I will definitely come here for Britt’s take (not the Rake’s take) on basketball. Britt’s game write ups are invaluable pieces of the puzzle and they actually do represent in depth analysis and certainly aren’t inside any preconceived “game write up” box.
Although Britt didn’t do a write up for last night’s Nets game, let me speculate a little. I enjoy reading Britt because I can look at last night’s stats and see that Brewer went 3 for whatever, had a few assists and 8 rebounds. I can read that he hit a jumper let in the fourth. But, and this is true even when I watched the game, Britt’s writing is incredibly observant and incisive and almost always points out something I missed.
It’s like taking a walk with a good writer. Sure we’ve all been on walks before and looked around. But good writers are incredibly observant people. Just having them describing what they saw after your own walk, makes you appreciate your own walk even more.
by littleboxes on Oct 29, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the "peice of the puzzle" part
We certainly get a lot of different opinions and view points here. And it can only help us to put them all together to find the average. Because the average, more often than not, turns out to be more accurate than any one of our individual opinions alone.
by Mplax on Oct 29, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
nothing like the homer glasses to skew reality. Takes a lot of differing opinions to help overcome it.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 30, 2009 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My single favorite NBA beat writer.
While I was glad to see the Britt Robson byline appearing over on SI, I was still suffering for lack of preseason “On the Ball.” More Robson is great news for all basketball fans.
And kudos to Canis Hoopus, an already strong site, in its own right, for making this happen.
by The Walker Wiggle on Oct 29, 2009 11:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
As I finally had the time to read up (I love that you’re here now and hope we’ll be seeing some more of you Britt, as I’ve always appreciated the different types of stuff Wyn, SnP (and Peter W when he was still around) put up).
I agree on the part that the building is the hardest part though I have the feeling a lot of people undervalue Rubio. Yes we don’t have him yet and a Flynn/Harden would look a lot better right now but still .. If we had Rubio I think the rebuilding would already look 2 levels higher …
The difficult part is that this remains speculation, just don’t forget about it when accounting for what Kahn has done. At least, if you agree that miller+foye (2 previous nr5 en nr6 picks) were worth one nr5 pick.
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Nov 1, 2009 2:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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