Hollinger's Player Ratings Are Out
Top 10:
- Paul
- Wade
- James
- Howard
- Durant
- Al Jefferson
- Nowitzki
- Bynum
- Bosh
- Kobe
Wolves: Jefferson #6, Love #20, Sessions #40...and then it drops off. Gomes is next at #183, Cardinal at #269, Pavlovic at #282, Wilkins at #283. No one else besides Antonio Daniels is projected (he doesn't project if there's not enough data).
It's an interesting list because there are surprises throughout, but it shows what a lot of people were already thinking: this team could use more talent from 5-15 spots on the roster.
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The Top Wolf At Each Position And Their Position Ranking
Center: Al Jefferson (#2)
Power Forward: Kevin Love (#4)
Small Foward: Ryan Gomes (#31*)
Shooting Guard: Sasha Pavlovic (#50)
Point Guard: Ramon Sessions (#11)
I know this has been discussed ad naseum, but this really shows how the Wolves are well set at three positions and in really bad shape at the 2 and three.
*Gomes is not actually listed amongst the small fowards (or power forwards) because his position is given as foward. All hail Four Letter!
A few likely reasons why
As this is a projection, his age, position, and size relative to similar players at the same point in their career are all included in Hollinger’s projections. He shoots around 60 percent and is a very efficient defensive player.
I doubt anybody thinks Al or Bynum are top-10 guys, but they are both very statistically efficient. It’s just a part of determining the value of the players; there are good non-statistical reasons to bump them down to where their real values lie. Obviously, though, having a very high PER shows you’re a valuable player in one way or another.
Very cool..
….and also, I just got a peak at the new Basketball Prospectus from Kevin Pelton and the folks at BP. UIt will be a definite must-buy and I can’t wait to put an ad for it up on the site. It’s a fantastic piece of work with a ton of great stats.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Not a good enough sample to project off of
There wasn’t enough information to make a worthwhile projection for Corey. Guys that didn’t play or that were injured for a long period of time weren’t even projected. Rookies weren’t either, from what I gather.
With as much as KGs numbers have dropped?
I would guess 20-25.
by Hoping For a Miracle..Expecting Failure on Oct 6, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
This list obviously undervalues defense.
Otherwise, no matter how young and how much upside they have, Jefferson and Durant would not occupy their current spots.
Hollinger admits this
He notes that it doesn’t quantify the defensive ability outside of blocks and steals. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good look at approximately how good a player’s season has been (especially statistically).
Oh this is a "PER" list?
I thought it was just his personal list based off of mostly PER and also some other rational factors. Otherwise he has some massive adjusting to do to make the list more appropriate to team-oriented players and defensive specialists.
It's a projection of PER for this season
He takes players that got 500+ minutes last season and projects their PER based on similarity scores. Similarity scores measure what the players most similar to player X did and then project off of what happened to them in the same year as player X. He admits other factors could affect PER, but that these could be seen as a good median estimate.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049
PER also overvalues volume shooters who aren’t terribly efficient which (ducking to avoid thrown objects) helps al a lot.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
You don't need to duck.
I think a majority of Canis Hoopus agrees with you. This site is probably more critical of Al than most non-Wolves fans.
It’s Flynn and Love we’re “homeristic” about.
i’m with you on love. it’s entirely possible that he’ll be your best frontcourt player at the start of this season.
my problem with jefferson is that for all the talk about what a great scorer he is, his TS% is below the league average for his position. his rookie year was the only year he was significantly over the average for a big (a little over 54%)
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
That has a lot to do with
His usage rate. Putting him in bad situations and telling him to go to work. A [good] true PG should also help this. Biedrins wouldn’t be shooting nearly as efficiently if he were taking the same looks Big Al is. If he were, then I think Biedrins would be getting MVP votes.
Not that I am defending Big Al too much, but I don’t have a problem with him on offense. It’s his motivation on defense that irks me.
we don't use the word
irk enough.
Bonus points for “irks” and “irksome.”
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 15, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
for all the talk that Al is not this and that
He is a consistent player. 20 – 10 a night is nothing to shoot your nose up at. I mean we are not talking about Zack R. and this young man is signed to a great extention for many years. Of course I would love a 7 footer who could pass, rebound, shoot and play D but hey didn’t we already try that route with a sub-par front office?
al’s a pretty good player, but my point was just that calling a “scorer” who doesn’t score particularly efficiently the 6th best player in the NBA is crazy (particularly considering his woeful defense). he’s a low block player who rebounds pretty well and scores points for you. he’s useful, but he’s not great.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Agreed.
But if D didn’t count he could be the 6th best player because he is flat out nasty with his footwork. <Insert Dr. Evil laugh here!> Really I was suprised as McHale when I saw how he could move his feet in the post – with less weight, I would love to see those twinkle toes on D as well – but that side of the floor is harder…
And D
other than Steals and Blocks isn’t counted in PER…Hollinger even admits that. He didnt’ call the list the best players…he called it a PER list.
by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 13, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions

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