I was bored today and ran a regression model (with a stepwise selection procedure) to see what team stats (season averages) were most associated with the number of NBA wins in a season. I used data from the 2008-2009 regular season.
Outcome: Number of Wins
Variables considered: FGA, FGM, FG%, 3PTA 3PTM, 3PT%, FTM, FTA, FT%, Total Rebounds, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, Total Rebounds, Turnovers, Steals, Assists, Personal Fouls, Points
Predicted # of Wins = -41.22 +2.71*FGM - 4.02*FGA +0.60*3PTA +1.64*3PT%+5.32*TOTREB +1.82*AST-5.48*TO +7.11*STL
This simple model fits the data quite well, maybe too well (R-squared = 0.98). My next step is to see what the model looks like using data from the previous 3-5 seasons.
Applying the current 2009-2010 season stats to the above model, the Timberwolves
will win 1.28 games! Ouch! For comparison, the Lakers will win 51.8 games.
The Wolves need a lot of help shooting the ball, dishing assists, and decreasing TOs. Steals look great!