**NEWS FLASH: JONNY FLYNN NOT BAD!
by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2009 9:16 AM CST
34 comments
I wanted to check on something because I think A LOT of people on this board are jumping the gun in saying that Jonny Flynn may not be a starting caliber guard in the NBA. Therefore, below the jump I have included the rookie stats of some other high profile guards that have entered the league in the last few years. For the basis of comparison, I made all stats per 40 minutes.
Jonny Flynn
Pts/40: 19.2
Ast/40: 4.6
Stl/40: 1.6
To/40: 4.8
PER: 13.4
Pts/40: 18.8
Ast/40: 6.5
Stl/40: 1.6
To/40: 4.1
PER: 15.2
OJ Mayo
Pts/40: 19.43
Ast/40: 3.35
Stl/40: 1.16
To/40: 2.9
PER: 14.2
Derrick Rose
Pts/40: 18.14
Ast/40: 6.8
Stl/40: .88
To/40: 2.7
PER: 16
Derron Williams
Pts/40: 14.9
Ast/40: 6.2
Stl/40: 1
To/40: 2.5
PER: 12.4
While looking at these stats I think two things clearly stand out...
1) How similar Jonny Flynn is in production to OJ Mayo or Westbrook.
2) Jonny Flynn's super high turnover rate. For that I would point to something that Hollinger writes often (below is a quote from an article Hollinger wrote last year, in where he predicted Westbrook would be a better PG than Mayo or Rose)
he has a higher turnover ratio than the other two, which, in a paradoxical twist of logic, is actually a good thing for a rookie. Historically, those with high turnover rates have had much higher rates of improvement in subsequent seasons.
All I'm asking is that everyone take a second to look beyond Brandon Jennings' current production, and recognize the fact that Jonny Flynn is only the second good young guard that we have EVER had. And while I keep preaching patience, I'm already going to predict that Flynn will at the very least embrace Minnesota better then the first.
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Nice post.
I appreciate the context.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Nov 24, 2009 10:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll stand by what I said
I doubt Jonny Flynn develops into an Upper-Level Starting PG in the NBA. David Thorpe I know has mentioned that he shares a similar viewpoint. This isn’t saying Flynn might not have value on the NBA team. It’s only saying he’s probably not the long-term answer at the 1.
A Few Points
1. You cite his scoring average as evidence that he’s productive. I don’t think anyone is doubting his ability to get to the rim or score. What’s in doubt- is his ability to create for those around him.
2. The Difference with a guy like Russell Westbrook is defensive ability. No one would deny that Westbrook due to sheer size probably has an edge in this regard.
3. I’ve never been a fan of OJ Mayo. Although Mayo wasn’t given control of the reigns to the degree that Flynn was. I know the Grizzles were exploring getting rid of Conley for this reason.
4. Derrick Rose wasn’t all that productive last year. He was a horrid defender as evidenced by his plus/minus numbers. His performance this year would also be considered somewhat disappointing.
5. As far as Brandon Jennings- it’s a bit like OJ Mayo last year. He’ll clearly cool off from his early shooting percentages. I also think teams will adjust defensively to him. Perhaps he’s Tiny Archibald or Tony Parker long-term. I just don’t think such long-term evaluations can currently be made.
by Jose Cordoba on Nov 24, 2009 11:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I understand what you're saying...
…but I guess the arguments/results are inconclusive. Derrick Rose, for most people, is still considered a franchise type talent. OJ Mayo is going to put up points in this league for a long time. Westbrook is looking better and better and better long term, especially in how he helps his team on the court.
On the downside, Rose seems to be underproducing for his expectations, Mayo seems to be too one-dimensional, and Jennings is expected to cool off. The more I think about all this the more I feel like I’m jumping the gun if I try to say “This guy is franchise guy, and this one’s not” because they are all so young still.
What I do take from this is that Flynn compares favorably to his peers in most respects. All these guys can improve, and some will and some won’t. I guess what I would be most interested in knowing right now is who are we considering an upper echelon PG? Who are the top 8 guys we’re comparing Flynn to?
For sure:
CP3
Nash
Most likely:
Deron
Chauncey
Parker
Rondo? (something about him makes me want to not include him on this list-too many other guys potentially making him seem better than he is, a la Troy Hudson).
Kidd?
Who else?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Nov 24, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Comparison's
When thinking about it, I guess I’d also want to compare him to…
Devin Harris
Allen Iverson
Stephon Marbury
Randy Foye (yikes, that one could be similar)
Gilbert Arenas
by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2009 1:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Players you think he’s like, or top PGs in the league?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Nov 24, 2009 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Player's he could be similar to...
I think you hit the nail on the head with your top PG’s in the game list
by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2009 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Following up on a few of Jose's points...
1. His assist rate is obviously lower than ideal, but I personally attribute most of that to the fact that he’s playing with some TERRIBLE players around him. We have literally nobody on this team that can reliably hit a jump shot.
2. While Russell is a far superior defender, and projects to be an All-Nba type defensive player, that’s not to say that Jonny Flynn won’t be a productive (albeit not as productive as Westbrook) defensive player as well. He won’t be able to guard NBA 2’s, but he seems like he’ll be able to stack up quite well against 1’s going forward.
3. While Mayo wasn’t given the reigns, you could still argue that he had the ball in his hands just as often as Flynn as evidenced by his usage rate (24.5) last year compared to Flynn (24) this year.
4. I think this is a very important point…Derrick Rose really wasn’t that productive last year, and that gets closer to my overall point…Just because Jonny Flynn doesn’t look that great, we shouldn’t necessarily write him off just yet considering how other rookie point guards have looked in the past few years.
by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2009 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
1. I sort of agree. At the same time- I compare Flynn to Sessions who seems to have a vastly better feel for involving others. It’s somewhat a question of PG instincts to a degree like it was with Randy Foye. DR JPK makes a comparsion to Jason Terry- this isn’t a bad one- for what type of player- he could become. Although he lacks Terry’s ability from deep.
2. Flynn could perhaps be OK (Although his D hasn’t been great so far). I just don’t see him as holding opponents in check to the degree of a Rajon Rondo or Russell Westbrook. He’s never going to board like these guys either.
3. Fair enough point on the Usage Rate. I think even the biggest defender of Mayo would be hard pressed to explain that he elevates the play of his teammates around him.
4. You’re right in that this isn’t really the issue at hand in regards to Derrick Rose. I’m willing to acknowledge that Flynn gets better going forward. I just see upside limitations due to size, shooting ability, and faciltation skills. This is why I tend to see him as more of an Instant Offense/ Change of Pace type player than a High Quality Starting Level PG. I’d love to be proven wrong.
by Jose Cordoba on Nov 24, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First off I'd like to start by saying
I always enjoy reading your points of view. No matter how similar or different they might be than my own. I enjoy the explanations of how you got where you did and it’s usually pretty well defended.
I think you gave up on the Mayo argument a little to easily. Usage rate doesn’t take into account the time a ball player has the ball and is controlling the game. It’s only who is finishing the shot. Mayo was obviously one of the go-to-guys last year for Memphis, but that doesn’t mean he was “given the reigns” as much as Flynn has been. I know there is something to be said of how he doesnt have the ball that much cuz of the triangle, but in reality, he still has the ball for most of any given play.
As far as the Westbrook/Jonny Flynn debateish type thing here: I think you have to look beyond size when discussing defensive ability. Obviously size helps, but it’s nothing more than a contributing factor. I feel as if Jonny’s quickness will soon make up for his lack of size. Once he learns a little more and when he gets into his prime, I think he has all the ability in the world to be a world-class defensive player. CP3 should definitely be his role model here, odd that I am not even talking about offensive comparisons here. But CP3 is the guy who leads the league in steals AND assists. The steals are the focus on defense obviously. He isn’t a big guard either, and I know a lot of comparisons have been made between the two and I think this is ridiculous, but I just wanted to point out that there are still good defenders who dont necessarily have the size. Flynn is extremely quick and I think his build and low center of gravity will help him make up for at least a couple of those inches.
For the point on facilitation, I can’t really defend my position too well, but I honestly think he will get better. Most of his issues, IMO, are because of the surrounding cast not finishing (as has been mentioned). Flynn has gotten robbed of a couple assists per game that should have been very easy finishes. I still believe in his upside once he has a better cast though.
by Mplax on Nov 24, 2009 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Few More Things
1. The point isn’t that Jonny Flynn is a terrible NBA player. It’s only the evaluation of his long-term upside.
2. You make good points on Usage Rate. It’s just an indicator of Ball-Dominance to a degree. Mayo handles the ball-enough that there should be some feel for his facilatation skills. Which really aren’t all that good either.
3. I’m kind of mixed on Chris Paul’s Defense. While he gets quite a few steals- he’s not a great one on one defender. He just lacks length in this regard.
by Jose Cordoba on Nov 24, 2009 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know its not exactly the be all end all of defensive stats
but his Defensive Win Shares are climbing every year and last year it was up at 5.0. I know Jason Kidd is kind of praised for his defense and at his best he had 5.8. And Kidd was in the league a lot longer before he got to these kinds of numbers.
Now I’m not saying Chris Paul is a premier defender in this league, but I don’t think he hurts his team in that regard either. I’m not asking Flynn to become a league defensive leader, I just want him to help us on offense without hurting us on defense. Like Chris Paul does.
by Mplax on Nov 24, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
I don’t think anybody is asking Flynn to be a shut-down defender. That does require length, along with great athleticism, strength, instincts, and timing. I do think that Flynn can be, and will be, a solid defender. He’s strong and quick and that’s enough to allow him to be an average defender. Combined with what could be an above average offensive game yields what should be a solidly productive and effective player, meaning he should be expected to play his way into the top half of starting PGs in the NBA.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Nov 25, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just remember that OJ Mayo aint a point guard
If Jonny Flynn does indeed become good, and if Ricky Rubio does indeed go to the Wolves in 2011, then they have a tricky PG situation on their hands…again.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
by LACK on Nov 24, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take that problem
I’d rather have to choose between 2 great players than wish upon a star for a player who’s simply decent at the position.
by nja700 on Nov 24, 2009 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PG crop
1 – Of all the guys mentioned in this post, Flynn would rank dead last. And my guess is he always will.
2 – I love Westbrook. He’s a better version of Rondo. When the Thunder were talking about adding Rubio and Westbrook rebelling – I was hoping the Wolves would trade their top pick for him. I’d still do Rubio for Westbrook in a heartbeat.
3 – I’m perplexed by Rose. His numbers to start last season were very good, then dipped. I attributed that to Ben Gordon coming back and bogarting shots. Then Rose was fantastic in the playoffs, and this year he has been very mediocre. I don’t get it – he now has control over the backcourt, Noah is emerging, and Luol Deng has picked up any scoring slack that Ben Gordon took with him. If Rose was halfway decent, the Bulls would be scary – but right now he’s making Beasley look good…
4 – OJ Mayo is not a PG. He’s not even a Brandon Roy type SG who can run the offense. He thinks he is, but he is not. OJ Mayo is many good things – a prolific scorer, a lock down defender when he wants to be, and a great athlete. But until he sheds his PG dreams, he will hurt that team. Good luck with that Memphis.
5 – Brandon Jennings… I think the kid is the heir to AI.
by gill0137 on Nov 24, 2009 12:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
A couple comments
Let’s hope you eat your words about Rubio!
I liked point 5. He has shown a lot of signs of this coming true, but I think he has also shown a lot of signs of it not coming true. He has a little too much confidence (and that 55 point game only furthered it), but his TO rate isn’t what Iversons was (I don’t think, not really checking though), and I think he has been a much better passer so far. Also, Iverson dominated in a way that Jennings hasn’t shown. Iverson had the talent to be the best in the game (not just for a year, but for his career), but he couldn’t put it together as a teammate. I think AI wins in the talent department, but Jennings wins in the teammate department. Though winning in this department to Iverson isn’t saying much.
by Mplax on Nov 24, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Jennings is a lot like AI minus the jumper
Can the shooting percentages be added too?
Westbrook isn’t a good shooter, but neither is Flynn. Westbrook can hit the boards, though
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
by LACK on Nov 24, 2009 8:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re-post at the end of the season
Blakeley makes a good point here that Flynn isn’t doing badly as a rookie point guard. Point guards take time to develop in the NBA just like quarterbacks in football. Flynn may or may not be a top flight point guard in the NBA, but he will be a productive, efficient scorer. I see him in a Jason Terry mold, with some point guard skills. A valuable player to have on your team.
by DR_JPK on Nov 24, 2009 12:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I will also wait for the end of season #2
Sorry, but 14 games into a rookie season is just too small a sample to say he will or he won’t. Flynn isn’t CP3, but neither is he Marko Jaric. Jennings isn’t The Answer or Anthony Peeler. Let’s wait a couple of years and revisit this then.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Nov 24, 2009 1:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Totally Agree
but if you read some of the comments under Mplax’s recent fanpost, you’d see that a little context is necessary right now.
by Blakeley on Nov 24, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
T-wolves fans want to scape goat Jonny Flynn for all the losing. Misplaced frustration. The Love injury coupled with Kahn’s roster cleansing , and a new coach/system are the reasons for this terrible start. When Love comes back and the wolves get some games under their belt playing as a unit in the triangle, I’d guess they win 33% of their games after that. So let’s see, that puts them around 20-62. With some good number one draft picks in 2010, cap space, and a nucleus of Jefferson, Flynn, Love, Brewer, Sessions… any of whom could be traded… this team now has something to work with.
Remember how Seattle was going nowhere a few years ago? Portland? It takes a few years, but look at those franchises now. Wolves fans need to weather the storm a little longer.
by DR_JPK on Nov 24, 2009 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Add the Hawks to that list too.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Nov 24, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with DR -
But I also know a number of fans have been numbed by the previous FO and can’t get past gloom and doom. Trust me, I would probably be in that group if McHale & Co were still running things. We need to look at this as a new rebuild, not a rebuild started in 2004 (SnP- the caption?!?). If by 2011-12, we are still having the same discussion, then I will be much more pessimistic.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Nov 24, 2009 1:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Speaking as someone who disliked the pick
It’s not that Flynn is “bad,” it’s that we’re not convinced he can ever be better than just good. Nobody talked about him as a lottery talent for most of the college year. His height and shooting ability are going to limit his potential. And unless he miraculously improves one of those two things, I don’t see how much he’ll be able to cut down on his turnovers without also becoming less aggressive. In the absence of a jumper, he’s going to have to keep going to the rim, and a six footer is going to be swallowed up and lose the ball a lot.
My board for the 6th pick went: Curry – Jennings – Derozan – Flynn. Flynn has been better than I expected him to be, but the fact that Curry and Jennings have looked good as well hasn’t eased my concerns.
by John Doe on Nov 24, 2009 1:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Flynn's style with his ballhandling is funky.
Sometimes it’s like he just lets the ball bounce near him and is sort of wrangling it freestyle moreso than really dribbling. It scares the hell out of me.
But this seems like it works to his advantage when he backs off from his bouncing dribble a little bit, then builds up a head of steam before he repossesses the ball and blows by his defender. I saw this a couple of times in the Clippers game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anybody do it before.
by Princely Frank on Nov 24, 2009 9:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
"(O)nly the second good young guard that we have EVER had"?
Maybe point guard. The Wolves have at least had Marbury, Doug West, and Isiah Rider. They were “good young guards” at some point, don’t you think?
Pick on Rider all you want, the guy was unbelievably talented. West was a defensive stopper type before he brought his offensive game around.
Gets pretty thin, that list of All Time Wolves greats. But there’ve been some decent players.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
by feral on Nov 25, 2009 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Two Sources So Far Blame the Triangle
I’m not saying those in the media are always right, but it’s interesting that Hollinger blames the “triangle silliness” for Flynn’s issues and now Markasi at CNN/SI is saying the same thing. I guess this is what happens when Taylor’s Gameplan is GM, then Draft, Then Coach (and Coach makes players adjust to system instead of the other way around)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/arash_markazi/11/25/rookie.rankings/index.html
by Son of Gerald Green on Nov 26, 2009 1:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It’d be more compelling if they watched a lot of games, which they don’t. It’s like relying on assistant coaches to pick the teams for the Rookie game and leaving Love off. 15 games isn’t enough to assess whether a strategy is working.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Nov 26, 2009 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How is Flynn compared to Brandon Jennings?
by medicineball on Nov 27, 2009 8:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Should have drafted Brandon Jennings
How could the Wolves have been so utterly stupid as to pass on Brandon Jennings?
Awards and accomplishments
* 2005 Press Telegram Freshmen Player of the Year
* Named the Most Valuable Player of the 2006 Les Schwab Invitational Tournament
* Co-MVP of the 2007 Elite 24 Hoops Classic (with Tyreke Evans)
* 2007 Las Vegas Easter Classic Most Valuable Player
* 2007 NBAPS Top 100 High School Camp Best Playmaker
* 2007 The Goazcats.com Showdown Most Valuable Player
* 2008 Naismith Male Player of the year
* 2007–08 Gatorade Player of the year Virginia
* 2008 Parade Magazine Player of the Year
* 2008 EA SPORTS National Player of the Year
* 2008 McDonald’s All-American
* 2007–08 MaxPreps National Player of the Year
* 2008 Jordan Brand Classic Most Valuable Player for the East
* No. 1 rated senior by ESPN (2008)
* No. 1 rated senior by Van Coleman Hoopmaster (2008)
* No. 1 rated senior by Clark Franics Hoopscoop (2007 and 2008)
* No. 1 rated senior by Dave Telep Scout.com 2008
* Most Points Scored in a single Quarter against the Warriors (29) (2009)
* Fourth Most Points Scored by a Rookie in an NBA Game (55) (2009)
* Youngest Player Ever to Score 50+ Points in an NBA Game (2009)
* Most points scored by a Bucks rookie in an NBA Game (55) (2009)
by medicineball on Nov 27, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why did the Wolves pass on Jennings
I’m sure this will be thrown out many times in hindsight. But at the time of the draft there were some serious concerns about his game.
1. Shooting ability (Probably his Mom didn’t expect these percentages so far). He’ll cool off- he’s not a 48% from deep shooter. Then his impact will be easier to measure.
2. He wasn’t exactly lights out over in Italy. In fact he barely even played over in Italy.
Granted a lot of this could be the Zone Defense factor.
3. There were questions about general instincts (Defensive and PG).
I’m still regretting Stephen Curry. I realize he doesn’t have Jennings numbers but he has a very good plus/minus, shown some facilation skills, and kept his shooting numbers up. He’d also be a nice fit on this team considering our lack of shooting.
by Jose Cordoba on Nov 28, 2009 10:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed 100%
Not to mention his personality issues as well. Ripped on the Knicks, didn’t show up to the draft until he got picked in the lottery, didn’t work out for a few teams, didn’t go to college because he was too much of a b!t*h, etc etc. Yeah he had a good resume, but I wouldn’t have taken him in hindsight. People only realize how much better he is than Flynn when he drops 55. Then it quiets down when he is shooting as bad as he is lately, but it will pick up sooner or later when Jennings strings together another good game.
On Curry, I would have taken him in a second over Flynn if he hadn’t left the workout because he wanted to drop to NY so badly. I realize we still could have taken him (like GS) and made him play and he would have. But I would rather have drafted someone who is going to buy in to our rebuilding plan and wont jet when his contract is up.
by Mplax on Nov 28, 2009 10:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that Flynn is going to be
a top 5 PG and perennial all star, but the guy can flat out ball and when his teammates all pass the ball and space out the floor like they did against Denver…he is very dangerous and hard to guard. Call me unorthodox, but I would love to see a wing setup of Flynn, Rubio and Turner. All three can ball handle and pass, which would be a serious plus in the triangle and on the fast break. Maybe even Wes Johnson, but I haven’t seen enough of him yet.
by TheEvilProfessor on Nov 30, 2009 8:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, our resident Professor, who is Evil
haven’t seen you around in a while. I’d be scared about that luneup, but I don’t think anyone could argue about how much fun it would be to test it out. We’d be quite undersized though which is my concern. Haven’t heard much about Wes Johnson, I’ll have to take a look.
by Mplax on Nov 30, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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