Anthony Randolph would welcome a trade.
by Blond Ricky on Dec 17, 2009 4:24 PM CST
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PrintReports that the Golden State Warriors are willing to trade second-year forward Anthony Randolph don't bother him at all, according to his agent."If Golden State wants to trade Anthony, we're not opposed to that," his agent, Bill Duffy, said. "He hasn't asked for or demanded a trade, but if the Warriors feel it would be beneficial to them to trade him, we wouldn't be opposed to that at all."
In fact, others close to the 20-year-old Randolph say he would be pleased to get a fresh start elsewhere. He's averaging 11.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and a team-high 1.2 blocks while playing 22 minutes a game.
Despite his tremendous talent, concerns about Randolph's work ethic and lack of focus have led the Warriors to consider trading him, according to various reports. When reached by telephone, Larry Riley, Golden State's general manager, would not comment on the reports.
"I don't comment on trade rumors," Riley said.
Sources within the Warriors organization and around the league say the 6-foot-10 forward is available, but they said he is not being shopped.
"They're not trying to unload the guy," one Western Conference executive said. "But they are disappointed in him, so now they're willing to listen to other teams. Whereas before the season, their thinking was that he was untouchable and they wouldn't even listen."
Executives mentioned New York and Houston as clubs that have interest in Randolph, but he will not be easy to move because of the great disparity between his small salary ($1.8 million) and his perceived upside. The most likely trade scenario would include Randolph as part of a larger deal that featured a more accomplished player.
"I don't know that Randolph's stock has dropped around the league," the executive said. "He's a great talent; he just hasn't done much yet. So he's more of a sweetener that could get another deal done if you threw him in."
While the Warriors have complained about a perceived lack of maturity on Randolph's part, he has been upset with the sporadic way in which Coach Don Nelson has used him -- varying his minutes and even his position at times. In the five games this season in which he's played 30 or more minutes, Randolph has averaged 18.4 points and 10 rebounds. The Warriors won three of those games, including victories over Portland and Dallas.
Randolph's representatives met with Warriors management last month to discuss his concerns, telling them that if his playing time didn't become steadier he would like for them to look into moving him. Duffy said he hasn't spoken with Riley about Randolph's situation since reports surfaced of the team's willingness to trade him.
"Whatever the Warriors decide to do, Anthony's going to continue to work hard and develop as a player," Duffy said.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4748700
The kid scares me with the ongoing discussion of poor work ethic and attitiude concerns. I don't know how you could give up a lot to get a guy with so much risk.
For those that favor trading Jefferson though, a prospect like Randolph might be the only way to make a deal where we don't trade quality for quantity. If I felt more confident in Randolph's mental make up, a deal based on Al for Randolph and Biedrins could be a fair trade. GS would get a proven player, a low post scorer with a good complement already on their roster in B. Wright. We downgrade on talent presently (Al > Biedrins/Randolph at the moment), with the upside of Randolph offset by the risk that he never "gets it."
If it works out, we've got a very complementary trio of bigs with Love, Biedrins and Randolph. The thought of Rubio leading a break off a KLove outlet pass with John Wall, Rudy Gay, and Anthony Randolph playing 2-4 is scary in terms of freakish athletcism flanked by BBIQ/skill.
Still, as much as Randolph tantalizes, he's got headcase written on his wall. All the talent in the world means nothing without the work ethic and drive.
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I've looked at this trade alot...
And if the trade is Randolph and Biedrins for Big Al. I think you have to do this deal…
In terms of Win’s Produced your production is…
Biedrins: .277
Randolph: .137 (as a rookie)
Al: .160
Gomes: .012 (Important because Randolph would cut into his playing time the most)
Now if you compare total wins produced with each player playing 75 games at 35 minutes a game, then your total wins produced is as follows…
Biedrins: 15.1
Randolph: 7.5
Al: 8.75
Gomes: .65
We’d be getting too much value to pass up. So much so that I would even consider adding Ricky Rubio if necessary. I know many people would argue with Dave Berri’s “wins produced” statistic, but the correlation is so much stronger than any other statistic that I think it has to be valued highly.
Are you serious?
Al & Rubio for Biedrins & Randolph is a terrible trade imo.
Al is infinitely better than Biedrins or Randolph and I think Rubio has more trade value than either of them too (remember Houston offered us Aaron Brooks and Battier for him and it was rumored that Knicks offered Wilson Chandler and #8 to move up and get him).
by TWolvesFanInLA on Dec 17, 2009 8:23 PM CST up reply actions
If you think that Al for Biedrins and Randolph...
is anywhere near a fair deal, then adding Rubio is laughable. Rubio is not a deal sweetener.
I think you're missing the point...
Using Win’s Produced as the measuring stick, we would improve our record by almost 13 wins over a full season. If you add two dependable wings during the off season (Gay/Brewer/Childress and Henry/Johnson/Turner?), then you may have a playoff team NEXT YEAR.
The point is, if you believe in the Win’s Produced statistic (which I do) then you have to do this deal.
Ah, Wins Produced
By the metric, Rubio hasn’t produced a single win for the Wolves yet. That guy doesn’t do anything for us! We should be begging teams to take him, that bum!
Normally a head case would bug me, but...
There are 2 factors at play her. The kid is 20. Twenty. He’s not old enough to drink or rent a car.
And ole Nelly. That guy has been a disaster this year. Yes he has difficult players, but that team is one mutiny after another.
I also think Nelly is the final factor that makes this trade impossible. Al Jefferson in a small ball running line up? That glove don’t fit, no way the trade happens.
Unless a third team can be involved… Teams that would welcome Al Jeff into their arms and offense – Dallas, Chicago, Cleveland, NJ, others?
Would Chicago give up Deng to GS to make this happen for Al Jefferson?
I'd be a fan of that deal
It does make more sense for everyone involved too. But then you have to wonder if they value Deng that much. He’s been a great player in the past, but he’s also slumped. I’d take Al for Randolph/Biedrins in a second on value/upside alone.
Judging from the trade I threw up
the other day (uh, “proposed” is prolly better than “threw up”) Deng as a player is highly valued by the Bulls and their fans. With that contract? Not so much, and the periodic injuries haven’t helped.
Could Deng be a mild-mannered (for better or worse) version of Captain Jack? I think so. But giving up Biedrins and Randolph to get Deng leaves the Warriors woefully short up front—maybe Ty Thomas, Miller, or Gray has to be included.
Here's a quick, shallowly-thought-out trade
That I’ve regurgitated from a recent trade machine test. Keep in mind this would be a trade that would hinge on the health of the players involved and of the rosters they currently on in a few months or in the offseason. I sent Al to the Bulls, Gomes to the Warriors. The Warriors send Azubuike to the Bulls and Biedrins/Randolph to Wolves. Bulls send Thomas to Timberwolves and Deng to the Warriors. There are various other 3-6 mil players that could make this work, and those involved could be shuffled as needed.
Bulls get a great low-block scorer that they’ve always needed (their offense is godawful this year) in Jefferson. He and Noah would complement each other very nicely. He’d also draw double teams, which would aid spacing and franchise cornerstone Rose. Azuibuike is a solid replacement for Deng that can do a little bit of everything and leave them doing alright at the wing. Thomas isn’t needed quite as much on this defense-heavy, offense-light team and they don’t seem to value him as highly anymore for the same reasons as Randolph isn’t on the Warriors.
Warriors get a consistent wing scorer with size in Deng. He’d be that “star” player alongside Monta that the team desires and can build around. Gomes is a player that would seem to do very well in Nellie’s system, as he’s a big man that can shoot the trey and do a little bit of everything. They’d be giving up a lot of frontcourt depth and length in Randolph and Biedrins, but those two don’t fit the philosophy nearly as much as Deng and Gomes would. They’d still have Wright and Turiaf and others to play in the frontcourt.
The returns on the T-Wolves’ side are primarily that of length, athleticism, and upside. Three things we sorely lack. Our defense would improve considerably, and we’d have a lot of upside to work with developmentally. Granted two of the 3 players are supposed headcases, but with a change of scenery to a place where patience and team play are being emphasized, I can see things working out. These guys would all be pretty effective next to Love.
This does all work around some wishful thinking and some health questions, but I don’t see it as a ripoff for any team considering team needs, contract length, or talent.
I actually don't mind it
for the Wolves. Without veterans Gomes and Jefferson, I’m leery of adding those “headaches” of whom you speak, but they’re on short, cheap contracts. So the risk (other than the loss of Al Jefferson) is low, relative to the potential reward. Biedrins’ back problems are a little worrisome, but oh yeah, Deng and Al Jefferson in this trade, so no biggie.
Deng is as bad a fit as Jefferson for GS
First of all, the values of Jefferson and the package of Biedrins/Randolph far outstrip Deng’s, whose contract drives his overall value back toward neutral. Chicago would need to add more value, which since Rose/Noah are likely untouchable, Hinrich is negative value, most everything else is expiring, would mean their 1st round pick.
Second, we’re all conveniently forgetting that the Warriors have Corey Maggette locked up from now to eternity at ~$10 million/year. Neither he nor Deng can really play anything other than small forward. So his already questionable value to the Warriors drops even further.
I really like this idea though. I don’t suppose there’s a fourth team that would want Deng and could send a big man and point guard prospect to Golden State in return…
You might be selling Deng a little short
Up until last year’s slump (now seeming like an aberration) he was seen as one of the better young players in the NBA. Chicago’s reluctance to part with him was one of the main reasons they didn’t trade for Pau Gasol a few years ago. In hindsight that seems stupid, but the guy is still a huge wing player with a big wingspan that can score in almost every way and rebound.
Also, he’s played shooting guard for the Bulls and he actually excels at the PF spot offensively. He does fit best at SF considering that’s the easiest spot to match him with, but he can play other positions effectively. He could play anywhere from 2-4 for Nellie effectively. You’re right in that Maggette would complicate things contract-wise, but Nellie really does play his small forwards everywhere from the 2-4 and even sometimes the 5. There are no “true” position players for Nellie.
I admit that Deng might still be the worst fit in this trade and I still think my trade is pretty sketchy, but he’s still a pretty solid fit and I think a player like Gomes sweetens the deal a bit too.
With Biedrins out
The Warriors are playing Mikki Moore. Why would they do this trade? Are the Bulls throwing in the towel this year? They get Jefferson’s rehab season and Azubuike is out for the year right? Is he a free agent after this season?
Moore's out now, too
with foot surgery.
But yes, the Bulls are all about 2010—I’m not sure that makes this trade more or less likely.
re: Deng's trade value
I refer you to my expert witness, shrink:
(Background, my proposed trade scenario was: Randolph and Biedrins to MN, Al Jeff to CHI, Deng + protected 1st to Team D, which gives its package to GS)
I could see the first trade from our end, but its hard to trade down. Al’s inside game is one of the best in the biz, so it might open doors for GSW with a third team that their combination of players does not.
However, I don’t see Luol Deng and a protected 1st to be close to the same value as the MIN or GSW packages. Deng is paid far too much for arguably a third option, and his deal runs far too long. Teams that take on salaries like this wreck their financial structure. He’s played well for 20 games, but that doesn’t negate what 2 seasons. Even his best attribute – his youth – might be a lie.
He sums up my concerns pretty well. Deng just isn’t enough of a trade asset. He signed his contract at 22, when he had just finished a season of ~.560 TS% and had a monster playoffs. The contract was based on the assumption that he’d build from there, when in fact, he’s regressed. Even now, his true shooting remains in the low 50s, which really hurts his offensive value.
Re: headcase
Dude might be a headcase, but the wolves seem like a pretty tight, solid group of human beings this year. Randolph might flourish and mature pretty quickly playing for our coaches instead of the bizarreness that is Nellie. I’d miss Al, but this trade might move us closer to where we want to get.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Dec 17, 2009 10:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yes to Randoplh and Biedrins...
for Jefferson. Big upgrade in athleticism and defense. Our bigs would be set and Randolph could play the 3 or rotate through the 4. I would not give up Rubio to get it done though.
Trade does
make sense in fitting bigs together but I think losing Jefferson would be a big blow… Love can’t make up for that low post scoring. And giving up Rubio would be too much
Our post offense would suffer
But not terribly. All of Love, Randolph, and Biedrins can give you a consistent 12-18 points per game. We’d have to adjust our offensive scheme to have our wing players initiating more offense and finding opportunities for the big men, but I think we kind of want to go in that direction soon anyway.
Once we draft Turner and Rubio comes, our offense would be high-powered in the style of Denver or Atlanta, with multiple playmakers around the court leading to lots of easy baskets.
Biedrins
= do want. Just read up on him and he looks like a great fit for the triangle, especially defensively. Randolph is nice because of his size and upside, but Biedrins would look really really good playing for us.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Dec 17, 2009 10:42 PM CST via mobile reply actions
It's not that we need him
It’s that he’s a player with considerable upside that might be had at a discount. If you can acquire him for the right price and he lives up to his potential, it’s a huge value. His length and athleticism alone would help this team, and he’s versatile in his skills to boot. A player worth gambling on, basically.
Agreed
He’s too talented not to make a run at, and if we’re getting Biedrins too, this would clearly be a shoot first, ask questions later scenario. That’s what I think anyway. Andris has had trouble staying healthy, that is one concern. But he could really help us. And we have Latvian weather.
How does he remind anyone of KG?
I’ve seen him play a couple times, and they’re completely different players, not even close.
Here
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=4t3ky
They have similar TS%, Randolph rebounds better, Garnett is a much better passer, Randolph is much better at getting to the line, Randolph is slightly better at not turning the ball over, and Garnett does it with a few less touches.
They have different games (and I wouldn’t trade Al for Randolph), but Randolph is certainly as effective a player as Garnett was at the same age.
Stats are slightly similar, but their games are COMPLETELY different in my opinion.
Also, I don’t think that Randolph will actually become as good as KG or even close ever.
as a warriors fan, let me tell you, you are 100% correct. the comparison is wayyyy out there in “absolute, very best, never ever gonna happen scenario” land. i’d put his reasonable ceiling at a souped up marcus camby. could make some all-star games, decent jumper, great rebounder, plays solid d (though camby is a bit overrated in this regard, i’d love it if randolph got to his level), but learns to pass better and score more efficiently than camby does. will he hit that ceiling? who knows, but he could, and that sounds like a fine player to me, even if it isn’t KG quality.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
rumor is that GS is mandating that
if they trade Randolph that Maggette gets packaged too. That way GS gets out of some salary cap hell. I just don’t see Kahn going for that. He probably would if he had a bad deal that happened to be alot better than the maggette deal, but since we don’t…we can all forget about this one.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 20, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
perhaps
but I am guessing that MN would want to swap the charlotte pick with GS’s to make that happen. For the contract, Jefferson is a better value, which is offset with Randolphs upside and rookie deal. However, Randolph will need a new contract soon and depending on how that plays out, MN may need a little more.
At that point, I don’t think GS goes for it.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 20, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
plus
they need bodies (GS). A 2 for 1 trade doesn’t help that.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 20, 2009 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Al + Sessions for Maggette + AR + (Azubuke or Turiaf)
They by all accounts are looking for a traditional PG and Azubuke’s potential and strong play prior to injury or Turiaf’s toughness in the post could both be good assets for the Wolves.
Definitely
as I mentioned below, I wouldn’t be willing to part with Jefferson to take on Maggette’s contract just for the slight chance that Randolph doesn’t get overpaid at $9M+ per. I would definitely need a draft pick, and possibly switching the Utah for theirs… the Charlotte one just might not be enough for that risk.
Not even close?
Come on!
Remind yourself that “reminds me of” doesn’t mean “is as good as.” Then consider that he’s 6’11", super skinny, athletic, highly mobile, a good shot-blocker and rebounder, and has handles like a guard.
If that’s “not even close” to being like KG, then please give me a list of several NBA players who are closer, because I can’t think of any.
"Needs to establish more of a post game on the blocks at both ends of the floor."
Scouting report on Anthony Randolph on SBNation. Kevin Garnett is great at his post game. KG is one of the top rebounders ever, Anthony Randolph will never amount to that.
They look the same?
I wouldn’t give Randolph the rebounding advantage over KG without a huge fight first, KG upped those numbers drastically when he started playing the 4/5 instead of 3/4. Randolph is already playing the 4/5.
Closest is relevant, doesn’t imply an accurate measure by any means, just better than the rest.
If we get Andris, then I would be very happy.
If we don’t, I don’t understand why. Maybe it’s because from what I’ve seen of Anthony, he’s not great, he won’t be great. He appears to be a very average player.
Headcases should not be aquired in talent balanced trades
stable psyches have significant value. Take Royce White for example…
by oblivionspocket on Dec 17, 2009 10:46 PM CST reply actions
Headcase?
I really don’t think this has been established. I believe the initial reports that Randolph was not working hard enough as a rookie, as even his own camp acknowledged that he did not fully understand what was expected or eve necessary to make it in the NBA. Everything after that could easily be Nellie. Adonal Foyle, who is a candidate for the brightest, warmest, most well liked player in the league was asked what the biggest challenge he ever faced as an NBA player. He responded that dealing with Nelson’s chronic and over the top belittling and abuse was the hardest thing he ever had to deal with in the NBA.
Also
Tom Tolbert, who played for Enlson on the Warriors years ago has a talk show in the Bay Area. He has described how life was entirely different for Nelson’s favorite players vs. those who found themselves in his doghouse. For them, life was fully miserable.
Here's a GS RealGM poster's take on Randolph:
Per minute Randolph’s numbers are really pretty damn good,yet he’s only rationed 22 min a game.
He HAS earned more. He clearly plays best when not distracted by company politics,short hooks,lineups where he’s thrown in with 4 guards….
A coach should NOT be an obstacle to success and progress but clearly,such is the case.
…(Randolph) is not getting mindf##ked and watching some 3rd string stiff play 40 while he sits.
It’s not Randolph. It’s coaching malfunction. Nellie has his odd little religion and dogma and rational thoughts,or seeing reality for what it is, get low priority. Any idiot knows Vlad Rad is not the future of any franchise. Any idiot knows that if you play Mikki Moore and Vlad as your front, Ellis has to be Oscar Robertson or you lose. Randolph isn’t the idiot in this farce.
While in most cases it would seem like the player is definitely a headcase, but given all the stuff we hear coming out of Golden State, I’m inclined to give Randolph the benefit of the doubt.
Just putting this out there..
Would anyone consider dealing Love in a package for him? Love for Randolph and player x? Not saying I would, but that would keep our post scorer intact (jeff) and give us the athletic post we’re lacking.
I wouldn't
I just think that Love is too valuable in our system. And I guess the truth is that Al is pretty valuable too. The difference as far as this trade is concerned is that Biedrins (when healthy) offers some low-post scoring that deserves moderate respect and is a much better post defender while still being a good rebounder. His ability to play within himself at Al’s position productively represents a better replacement value than trying to replace Love’s rebounding, facilitation, and expanding outside game. Randolph is what he is at this point (a more talented and consistent Ryan Hollins), and he does have value but doesn’t replace either of our two bigs. So it comes down to Biedrins, to me.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Hollins seems like the kinda player Nellie would like...
Yes? No?
Would he be a chip we could add as a sweetener?
If player x is Morrow or Curry
then maybe. But that’s risky, and i doubt GS would give up either of those two anyway.
i guess i need to chime in here.
al for biedrins and randolph is an awful deal for the warriors. we give up two players signed to very reasonable deals (including randolph’s rookie deal that has him locked up for another couple years) for an overrated al jefferson.
to re-break down my distaste for jefferson for those of you who missed it, he’s a volume scorer, great rebounder, awful defender, who doesn’t score efficiently or pass well/often and is signed to a deal that i don’t want to take on for a guy with recent knee issues that don’t seem to be fully behind him.
biedrins is an injury risk, no question about it, but when he’s healthy, he’s a masterful rebounder, decent defender who defends the weak side in particular well and blocks shots, scores efficiently and can be effective away from the ball. all for under $10M per year for this year and the next 4. it’ll take a lot to pry biedrins in a trade and since he and jefferson are about a wash, with jefferson being the much worse fit in oakland i wouldn’t do that deal straight up, much less with randolph involved.
randolph is erratic and out of control, but a great rebounding 4 with worlds of upside. he wants to be a perimeter player, but doesn’t have the game to back it up yet. think camby meets tayshaun meets an excited puppy. and again, that rookie deal makes keeping him to see if he meets his potential a nearly zero risk undertaking. he’s not untouchable, but if he’s going anywhere, it’ll be in a package for a great player.
it wouldn’t take rubio, but if the deal is centered around al for biedrins and randolph, it’ll have to get a hell of a lot sweeter before i’d bite. think picks, taking a bad contract or getting a 3rd team to send us someone better than jefferson.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
'Bout time you showed up
to weigh in on this. Okay, you’d need more than Al to get AR and AB over to the Wolves (I happen to agree with your assessment of Jefferson, but today he’s (barely) the MVP of this awful team.
That said, you’re not Nelly, nor are you the Warriors brain trust (you seem to have more common sense). Why can’t they just let Camby ride out his rookie contract, and placate the guy, rather than mull over the trade talk already? Or do they think that, like, Bosh or somebody is coming over in return for Randolph even up (contracts aside)?
yeah, important to note that i don’t rule out the possibiliity of a trade like this happening in real life, just that it would make me cry if it did.
i think a randolph and biedrins package could fetch someone(s) of chris bosh’s caliber. i don’t want bosh (he’ll walk or we’ll give him a max deal, neither of those are good things), but could be happy with a deal where we gave up our two best front court players if we got someone in that second best player on a contender class. a high end all-star, not a superstar. i can’t think of a good example off the top of my head, but someone a notch below bosh along with a youngster with potential or a decent draft pick could get me to pull the trigger.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
While I agree with your assessment of the trade...
…and, for the most part, your evaluation of the players, we aren’t the GMs. And for whatever reason, you franchise appears to severely undervalue both of Biedrins and Randolph. I see why they wouldn’t take this trade, since Al Jefferson really doesn’t make sense for that squad, but that doesn’t rule out a 3 way. A team like Chicago would absolutely love to put a post scoring 4 alongside Joakim Noah. They would value Al close to that “second best player on a contender class.” Then there’s still the issue of finding a package from Chicago (or a 4th team) that makes sense for Golden State, but I guess what I’m getting at is:
Jefferson’s value to a team like Chicago >= the value Golden State’s front office would want to receive for a package of Biedrins+Randolph
The original proposed trade stinks, but that doesn’t mean the trade value isn’t there. If we work a third or fourth team into the mix, what type of player(s) would Golden State be looking for? Logic says they are stacked in the wings and would want a stud big man, but the fact that they seem to go out of their way to keep their best big men on the bench suggests otherwise.
A thing to keep in mind after tonight's game
Warriors are on TV right now. It’s been the first real chance for me to see Randolph this year, knowing only of his reputuation via the internet, regarding potential and risk. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he had one of his worst games tonight, and is capable of much better things. That said—
One thing that occurs to me is that commentors on this topic seem to forget that the Warriors are offering Randolph independently. I’ll believe for now his statement that he hasn’t ever asked for a trade.
They’re offering him. In any negotiation, you never respond with your own best offer. You assume that, if he was really promising, they would not be offering him.
So although I’d put my trade limit — my best offer — at or near where must of us seem to be, let’s keep in mind that if Kahn is as smart as we hope, he’ll not only try to get Randolph for a song, but succeed.
Well like Cap'n Hack said
I think we need a little more of a sweetner for this deal to work. And I don’t think another team will get us there… unless Nellie just really doesn’t want Jefferson. Everyone wants Chicago to throw in more value in the above trades, but really it’s us that is getting a steal here. Biedrins is a better contributor to a team than Jefferson, Jefferson can just score in a pinch. I say we propose a deal like Jefferson for Randolph, and then we eat Maggette’s contract. This solves our need for a wing player immediately, and we can always have him come off the bench when we draft Johnson/Turner. Still have the cash to sign Gay/Brewer/Childress this offseason so we would definitely be set and the wings with Maggette coming off the bench for any combination of draft and sign. Plus, since we are still getting the raw end of this deal, we can trade a our Utah or Charlotte pick for their first rounder and get Henry or Aldrich in addition.
We end up with:
Rubio/Flynn/Sessions
Draftee/Henry(?)/Brewer/Ellington
Gay(?)/Maggette/Randolph
Love/Randolph
Aldrich/Love/Randolph/Hollins
Best Big Al trade suggestion that makes sense for both teams
Al for Randolph and Maggette. I don’t think you could get the draft pick swap but it wouldn’t hurt to ask. Even so, I still do this deal as the wolves. Randolph brings the length this team needs, could play in an up tempo style, and would appear to mesh defensively with Kevin Love. I still think you’d want a third big in the upcoming draft, you mention Aldrich, but I think Favors would be perfect. A Love, Favors, Randolph frontcourt would be ideal as it offers length, athleticism, shot blocking, rebounding and intangibles. Love can start fast breaks and by all accounts Favors and Randolph can finish one. Maggette starting at SF, who despite his generous contract still is a productive starter. The PG settled with Flynn Rubio Sessions and Brewer and Ellington at the 2. Your free agent dollars can find the best player available after Gay spurns us or Memphis matches us. Trade away Sessions or the Bobcats and Jazz Picks for additional help to fill the cracks if the right deal comes along.
Captain Hack “could be happy with a deal where we gave up our two best front court players if we got someone in that second best player on a contender class. a high end all-star, not a superstar.” Al seems to be in that conversation or maybe a step below it which would seem even value for Randolph/Maggette.
A few notes
Financially, over the life of Al’s contract Maggette + Randolph’s qualifying offers is about Even money each year and both expire at the same time as Al’s deal.
Both Randolph and Love would be up for extensions at the same time which I could see potentially making negotiations challenging in setting value for both of them. ESPN reports today in it’s rumors section that Dufffy is going to be seeking a 5 year $60+ Million extension for Randolph due to his unique skillset. Will love want more? Would either player be comfortable not being the Alpha dog in the front court?
Maggette just turned 30 in November and will be turning 33 during the 2012/13 season making nearly $11 Million in the final year of his contract. Alternatively the Mayans predict that the world is ending late December during that 2012/13 season so we may only be on the hook for half that $11 Million.
now we’re more in the ballpark. in the end, i actually still probably wouldn’t do that deal, but it definitely gave me some pause. breakdown time:
i don’t like watching corey maggette play basketball; let’s start there. he’s a selfish player on offense who scores his points by barrelling into the paint and shooting free throws. it’s ugly. but here’s the thing: he’s a really good scorer. maybe even a great scorer, depending on how you toss those terms around. and in any event, he’s a better scorer than jefferson. he also rebounds his position well (not that jefferson doesn’t, i just think this aspect of maggs’ game gets ignored) and is a decent defender who has been willing to do whatever is asked of him since he’s come to the bay. guarding bigs, coming off the bench, he’s done it all without complaint. on a better team, i’d really like corey maggette.
in the end, i think maggette and jefferson are in about the same class of player. overpaid, good players who can’t be The Man on a winner. maggette gets a lot of criticism for his woeful lack of style points, but the guy can score and he seems to have a much better attitude than people give him credit for. both he and jefferson can be valuable pieces on a contender, but expecting them to lead your team is setting yourself up for failure. in the end, i’ll hang on to randolph and let him develop, see what he can do for the next couple years, rather than give him up in a trade that doesn’t make the warriors radically better.
this is a good thought for a randolph trade, making it two in the past two days where i’ve thought them over seriously (clarkpojo from SLCdunk posted another over at GSoM). i’m very pleasantly surprised.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
I'm not sure I'm buying that Maggette is up to Al Jefferson
especially with Corey turning 30(!) last month, and still having like, five years left on a double-digit deal? At a position that requires some quickness and hops?
I’ll take what you say about him as a player as the truth. But if he’s overpaid now, he’ll be wildly overpaid by the time this team is ready to contend. If the deal is Al for Maggette and Randolph, I think that type of deal for Al will always be available.
yeah, the age is definitely a concern, but the way maggs plays basketball makes me worry less about that. it’s not as though he dances around guys and elevates to the hoop with his amazing agility and leaping ability. he just outmuscles guys. he takes a beating and has been injured a fair amount, but i think his overall level of play should stay fairly consistent for the 3 years he’s got left after this season.
jefferson, on the other hand, should get better at his age. how much better, i’m really not sure. he’s not exactly a rookie, and i don’t expect to see any radical improvement, but he could add a wrinkle or two to his game that helps him out. the ability to move without the ball in his hands is a good place to start for that.
again, what it comes down to is that it’s not worth giving up randolph’s potential for a deal that might make us a little better, but probably still not a playoff team. plus, randolph has actually been fairly productive this year. he looks lost and confused, but he still rebounds and blocks shots and his FT% is rising which gives me hope for his jump shot.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Yeah I wouldn't put Jefferson or Maggette in the same class of player by any means
there is a reason Maggette comes off the bench (and should). I’ll try to ignore Jefferson here to take any sort of homerism out of me, but I’m sure I’ll slip up somewhere. But Maggette is just not the guy you want starting on a championship contender. Jefferson on the other hand, should be (I don’t think this is homerish). Maggette is a volume scorer and as you said a decent rebounder, but unless you are a great defensive team with no offense, Maggette needs to be coming off the bench punishing second units. Second units who also give up more fouls and make his game better, all while being easier to defend.
Basically, the deal I made was to take Maggette off of your hands. I absolutely do not want him on my team, but if he came along with Randolph and a pick swap, I would do it. For just Randolph, I’ll gladly pass that one up. Randolph has not shown enough to get rid of somebody who, as PoorDick mentioned, could garner a deal similar (but better) to this at just about any time. Randolph’s upside is unquestionable, but I just don’t think he will ever come close to it (which still, with such a high upside, if he gets even half way there he could be a star). I think he (and his agent apparently) overvalue him because of the hype he has gotten. There is absolutely no way he is worth 12M over 5 years right now. Unless that contract starts at 7 and is filled with incentives left and right, it’s not worth it. So basically, if he is demanding that kind of money right now and we are taking Maggette on as well, I’d rather not swap Maggette for Big Al and then not match the sucker who gives him that much.
i don’t necessarily disagree with most of that. jefferson makes more sense as a starter, maggette is a 6th man. just because he’s a 6th man doesn’t mean that he isn’t a very good player. there really aren’t many guys who are better in that role than corey maggette. he’s not manu of a couple years ago, but i’d take him over jason terry or jr smith, which puts him in a pretty elite class of 6th men. on a contender, he should come off the bench and get about 30 mintues or so, which is about the amount of time al should be on the court if you have a decent frontcourt rotation (as any contender would).
scorers of maggette’s quality are rare, and he is very good at hiding the weaknesses of a team’s second unit. i think jefferson is in the 3rd best guy on a contender range, and maggette is probably about there too. if not, he’s at the very least a high end 4th guy. not to mention, he’s probably the runaway MVP of this terrible warriors team right now, so that must count for something, right? come on, throw me a bone here…
just curious, why the strong opposition to having maggette on the wolves? i know he’s a terrible fit with the triangle, and considering that the wolves have solid point guards and kevin love, ball movement would suffer from having maggs on the team, but they could really use someone who can score from the wings and unless you get turner/henry/wes in the draft, along with another wing in free agency, it seems like he’d fill a need (even if he doesn’t fit the offense).
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
I think we are pretty close here
just a little off, let’s see if we can get it figured out.
I don’t want Maggette because I think he was a terrible signing. If he really has gotten better in terms of attitude, then that adds on probably 1 or 2M that I would be ok paying him. But for 10M, I think you need a guy like Al Jefferson (yeah I think he is overpaid a bit too, but not as much considering age and he is already probably the best (most creative?) low post scorer in the league). Neither of them are allstars, but Jefferson has an infinitely higher chance (0*infinite is still 0…. crap). I guess I am one of those who consider volume scoring as an easy thing to replace. For every Kevin Love there are 50 guys who want to shoot the ball every play. And Maggette is paid far too much, IMO, considering his biggest strength is volume scoring. Yes he is efficient, and that is a definite plus, but I think he lowers the efficiency of the team right back to where it started with his lack of passing. So I guess in summary, while I don’t think he is a detriment to a team, I think he is paid way too much for a guy who really doesn’t add a whole lot to a team either.
I agree that Big Al is the third best on a contender, but I think he has the opportunity to become the second (or slightly possibly the first). Maggette right now, I agree he is a low third best or high fourth, but he is only going down. So while they might be even enough to have Randolph create the incentive for this year, I don’t think they are even enough after this year with Randolph’s questions so blank of any answers yet (will he continue to improve? will he demand 12M? etc). That’s why I would want at least a pick swap of Charlotte’s and if I was Kahn, I might not do it unless it was the Utah pick for a top 3 protected first rounder and unprotected next year or something.
sounds about right to me, though i don’t think maggette lowers the rest of the team’s offensive efficiency at all. i mean, you know that when he catches it, he’s going to the hoop, but no one is able to stop him, and a corey maggette drive is among the most efficient scoring plays in basketball. considering how much attention teams have to pay to him, he makes an offense better. again, it’s not pretty, but it works.
you can basically use him as a “there’s 7 seconds left on the shot clock and we need a bucket” guy on a team that moves the ball well. run 17 seconds worth of smart passing before running an iso to maggette and you’ve got a team that will score a lot of points.
i’m not sure how much better jefferson is going to get. like i said, he’s young and should improve, but he’s not exactly a rookie. he’s had plenty of time to learn to play defense, move without the ball and make more/better passes. i won’t rule out the possibility of him becoming a #2 guy, but i’m not confident in that either.
randolph is quite possibly the most interesting mystery box in basketball. he’s already a fairly productive player, but when you watch the stupid basketball plays and the raw athleticism, you can’t help but wonder how good he’d be if he learned how to play. he reminds me a lot of josh smith because of that. great athlete, no BBIQ, decent production from a young age, unique skillset. josh smith seems to have finally figured it out, but it took him a while. no guarantees that randolph puts it all together, but man, if he does…
and i agree that the wolves could probably get a better deal for jefferson. that’s why they would have to at least hestitate before going through with this, but i don’t think it’s far from fair value. honestly, sell high on jefferson, you guys should be able to get a really good package for him.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Sell high?
While he is getting his legs back? ;-)
I agree about that I guess. But I don’t know how Corey would like the ball getting passed away from him for 17 seconds… He would definitely have to learn to make a pass in our system, and I think our coaches could teach him that, but we’re playing for development (like GS should be) and Maggette does the opposite of Jefferson for that. The difference in years play a large role in my desire not to have Maggette, plus his contract isn’t pretty. I’d love to be able to be able to linechange and have Maggette sit down for Brewer when the clock hits 7 though.
Jefferson has a high ceiling as well. His defense is all about effort and motivation. He does very well when guarding Duncan, and it doesn’t look like its cuz Duncan is slower, it looks like a product of effort and motivation. He shows more and jumps more for the ball. It’s nice to see him guard Duncan because we get a glimpse of what’s possible. His passing has improved year after year and I think the injury set him back a bit. Not to mention that he hasn’t had a consistent coach for more than what he had Doc Rivers for in Boston.
Randolph is scary because of that. And now his agent is demanding 12M? That’s ridiculous. He shouldn’t get more than 6 or 7M… and even then it’s mostly based off of potential. I’d be interested to see what he could do with more burn, but right now, he doesn’t deserve 12M in the least. If he holds out for something even close to that, and someone actually overpays him even 10M, the trade goes from fair to terrible very very quickly. Great player though and seems to have a nice work ethic now.
well, you’d have to include maggette in the passing segment of the offense too, but i think he’d be a much more willing passer if he knew that the ball was coming back to him later in the possession in the form of an iso. the ball movement in GS is so abysmal that i think a lot of guys start firing up bad shots because they assume that whoever they pass it to is going to instantly shoot the ball. there is no system in place. run a structured offense with maggette as the shot clock running down plan, and he could be fantastic.
interesting about jefferson’s D. i watch a fair amount of wolves games and hadn’t noticed that, but i’ll keep a closer watch next time an elite post player comes to town.
i hope randolph’s agent is referring to how much his client will be worth once his rookie deal is up. i assume that he is aware that no one is going to sign him for $12M today, but i really have no idea. he has to know how stupid it would be to restructure a rookie contract. has to. anyway, that situation definitely could be a problem. we’ll see how it plays out; i just hope we don’t see randolph tanking it because he’s not getting the money he thinks he deserves. that’d be a disaster for everyone.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Yeah I was mostly just joking
I think he could be incorporated and would benefit from the triangle actually. It worked on Jefferson so far and I think he would learn very quickly to make the open pass as soon as he can and then try to get in to position to get to the hoop. Then again, we are talking about what is, not what if… and Maggette’s what is does not include much potential. Randolph is the one that I would have to be convinced of the likelihood that he reaches his potential in order to take Maggette. I guess with Corey we more or less know what we are getting so really it’s not like we will be surprised either way.
Definitely don’t look every time he plays a good post player… for some reason it seems that he is only that active when against Duncan (2 games I saw last year against the Spurs he looked not just competent, but good on the defensive end). The unfortunate part was that one of those games, Tony Parker absolutely destroyed us (thanks Foye and Telfair). I don’t know if Jefferson has something against Duncan or if he just seems to have his number, but he looked good. Very small sample size though and I don’t want to be the person to tell you he is a good defender against elite post players… cuz he is not.
Agreed on Randolph, but as has been mentioned, the Wolves have dealt with a few of his clients in the past and they usually seem to be overpaid.
Yeahhbbbut
Paying Gay or someone else and Maggette is an awful lot of money at the three ($20m a year or something). And even adding Rubio/Henry/highlypaidSF/Randolph/Aldrich—that team would be loaded with potential, but likely worse than what we have now.
I think Favors would be the guy over Aldrich and if Favors can progress throughout the year, may even become a potential #1 for a time like the Wolves stocked at the point, but I don’t want this to turn into a Wall debate. If we make this deal we’ll have two big holes at Shooting Guard and 3rd Rotational Big. Draft one, sign the other in free agency.
I disagree with you that this team would be worse. Trading our Vet in Al to GS for Corey transfers where our scoring is coming from but doesn’t make enough of a dropoff to think adding all this talent wouldn’t improve this club.
it wouldn’t just transfer where the scoring was coming from, it makes the wolves a better scoring team. corey puts up a TS% just shy of .600, and does it at a comparable volume to jefferson.
side note on maggs: i actually think that since signing with the warriors, he’s become underrated and since he’s such ball dominant player, people attack his attitude, but he’d probably be a pretty good influence on a young team like the wolves (or the warriors for that matter). he’s a workout fiend who does whatever he’s asked to do and is a pretty likeable guy. with his contract, he makes more sense on a contender, but with his attitude and skillset, he makes sense for a young team too.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
I definitely agree that Maggette is a more efficient scorer. That being said I think there is a more of a premium on post scoring versus wing scoring as less guys do it effectively. That’s probably something I agree with less than others on this board, but one of the points the pro-Jefferson people on this board think would be irreplaceable if we got rid of Al.
Your description of Maggette’s attitude is encouraging if a trade like this were to happen. Like PoorDick stated though, Al Jefferson is in his prime years and is a better bet at performing to his contract than Maggette at ages 30-33 for similar money.
His attitude is great
And he is skilled, but is he a fit for what the Wolves are trying to do? He has no outside shot and is not a passer. He is pretty low on the list of GSW wings I’d want
I don’t think Maggettee is the key to the package. I think Randolph’s handles will mesh well in the triangle. He’ll be ahtletic enough to run when Rubio gets here. And he can be a shot blocker and defend mobile bigs while Love can take on the strength based players.
Obviously their are certain parts of Maggette’s game as well as his owed future compensation, but he offers a live contributing body at a position of need.
I maintain that the only way I would get rid of Al via trade is if another Big Man is coming back in return. This trade is financially neutral during the live of Big Al’s contract and Maggette + Randolph seem like a bitter fit moving forward.
Agreed on what little I know about Maggette
Interesting, too, that although I acknowledge Al’s faults/weaknesses, he’s regarded by Hollinger as the 3rd best big man under 25. That’s not so much a testament to Jefferson, as it is the paucity of good young post players.
Also—can you guess to which player this beat writer was referring when he wrote this last week?
. . . as much as he is putting up great numbers on a bad team, is 25 years old, couldn’t lead a Cub pack, plays defense like it’s optional, drags around a massive knee brace . . .
wow, i don’t think bosh is a max contract player or anything like that, but he’s pretty impressive in his own right. if folks are starting to knock his D, he must have totally checked out in toronto. i remember him being a pretty good defender in previous seasons, though i confess i haven’t seen many raps games this year.
i have trouble taking hollinger all that seriously when he discusses individual players. of course he loves al. he’s a volume scorer, which is overvalued by PER considerably, and since PER doesn’t account for defense at all, it’s easy for hollinger to overlook it.
and sorry for the maggs rant, i’m slowly going insane over at GSoM with all the commenters who feel maggs is a team cancer and a terrible basketball player. i only get to see one game in oakland per year, and on dec 26th, corey maggette is getting a standing ovation from me.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Good for you
Some time some body with more time (hard to find) and more knowledge (easy to find) will put up a post on players who just quietly do their thing in the midst of total chaos—not checking out, but not making matters worse.
I always appreciate the respect for the darkhorse player
Heck, I have a signed Craig Smith jersey! He was probably my favorite player on the team last year. Still chuckle when I remember him and Big Baby matching up and Big Baby ended up on the floor after they collided…
Turiaf
would be a great 3rd big man in the Wolves triangle. 2nd in the NBA in blocks/min, and the top assist center. His relatively weak rebounding is hidden by pairing him with Love or Al. Get him with Randolph for whoever we can give up. Of course, I’m not sure if there are enough minutes for Randolph at the 4, and I don’t think he’s a fit at the 3, even if he thinks he is.
Bump
ESPN reporting that Randolph fractured his ankle against Sacto today.
"I tell one of my media colleagues to watch Hollins, who regards cutters entering his vicinity with the sort of startled amazement newborn infants have when their own appendages enter their vision for the first times."
-Britt Robson
There are also reports
that Maggette’s value is going up (which is certainly believable with his recent play). Looks like we waited too long.
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