An interesting comparison
by biggity2bit on Dec 2, 2009 10:07 AM CST
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I thought this was an interesting exercise in revealing the limitations-and strengths-of using stats to inform our picture of a player, as well as scouting out potential help for us.
Which of these 6'-8" players would you rather have?
(Note: all numbers are per 36 minutes for players A and B)
FGs (made/att) FTs (made/att) Reb Stl Blk TO Ast
A. 5.3/14 (.381) 2.3/3.5 (.642) 5.3 2.3 .8 2.4 2.5
B. 6.2/16.1 (.382) 2.3/3.2 (.741) 4.9 2.1 .6 2.4 3.4
One player is making nearly $6 million this season and is considered an up and coming star, the other is making almost $3 million this year and flying under the radar. Both play great defense. Player A is 24, while Player B is 25. I think either of these wing players could help this team.
Any guesses as to who these players are?
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Don't know about ages or anything
but my guesses are Corey Brewer (and his dismal FT%) and Trevor Ariza (and his overratedness).
I went with forget em and draft Turner. Although I think the options were a little difficult because you didn’t say who they were. The last option, wouldn’t we technically be signing both of these guys in FA? Also, Evan Turner doesn’t shoot terribly well does he?
I was looking for an option that said take (keep?) player A and still draft Turner if at all possible.
Or…. my new thing is to get Gay and Ronnie Brewer/Josh Childress, and then draft Cole Aldrich.
Box
I was hoping it wouldn’t be that transparent, but none the less I think the comparison is striking. The main difference between the two at this point is that Ariza is hitting his three point shot at a much better rate than Corey. That’s it. (Well, Ariza also plays on a better team so he’s got much better +/- numbers, but I digress). For how high most people are on Ariza, I think Corey might end up playing like Ariza ‘08/’09 by the end of this season, which would be a very welcome development.
I whole-heartedly agree with you on adding Josh Childress or Ronnie Brewer to this team. Those guys are dope, and offensively efficient to boot. They seem like the kind of players who would quickly figure out how to make the most of what the triangle gives them, and are good enough with ball movement that it’d help maximize Flynn’s abilities as well. With Utah potentially having a top three pick (with our luck, they’ll get the #1 pick via NYK), Brewer might be eminently gettable, although if that happens they’ll let Boozer walk, draft Favors, and try to resign/match Brewer with the Boozer savings.
Assuming we ‘stay the course’, we should have our shot at Turner or Aldrich in the draft (although I’m not convinced that Aldrich will be as good as Pryzbilla, which is what we need, especially for a player taken that high in the draft. I think Aldrich certainly won’t be as good as Lopez). While Turner might not be a great shooter, I think he shows great potential for becoming an offensive force. Combine him with our Brewer and Ronnie Brewer/Childress and suddenly our SG/SF lineup shows great athleticism, length, and defensive potential. If you can add Rudy Gay to the mix it could become devastating. The best part is Rubio looks like a fantastic facilitator for that group, and Flynn a fantastic 6th man/bench scoring leader.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
I actually just got in to a debate
about Ariza v Brewer with someone (don’t remember who) last week I believe. I was on the side of Brewer being just as good for the money. And I also said that Ariza was the absolute perfect example of how Brewer should be able to become more efficient once the usage rate goes down. This is the least efficient that Ariza has been since coming into his own and it’s also, not coincidentally, the highest by far that his usage rate has ever been. I also think Brewer’s assists are a product of this team. They will go up and be very comparable to Ariza’s in the future when he gets surrounded by finishers. They will never be one of his strengths, but he will be more than adequate for a SG/SF. I’ll say it again though, I honestly think Brewer might be the best transition defense player in the league not named Lebron. I want to see a transition block% stat on basketball-reference.
I actually didn’t even think about that while supporting the Brewer/Childress pickup. But you are definitely correct here, I think both of these guys would be perfect fits in the triangle. Efficient players who can score without the ball in their hands and move well without the ball. Defense is just icing on the cake!
I’m really interested to see how the draft shapes out this year. It might be the most interest I have had in a draft yet (it seems to get more and more that way every year….kinda sad, but I think we are on our way out finally). Hopefully we land in a spot that taking Turner is the BPA and the best fit (and hopefully he turns out to be the BPA overall), but it doesn’t seem to work out that way for the Wolves. Wall and Favors are interesting, but not enough is known about them yet. I will hopefully be able to find time to watch the Ohio game tonight, it’s actually televised I believe. I agree with you about Aldrich, but my opinion here is nothing more than conjecture. I haven’t seen him actually play (along with most college prospects), nor have I really looked at his stats. I believe he will be a high floor, low ceiling type player though. But he could possibly be just what we need. A defensive center who can stop guys like Oden and slow guys like Howard. His body was made for it. I hope to watch him play sometime soon to add more than just guesswork to my opinions.
Rubio makes me drool when I think about adding him to a team with wings: Rudy Gay, Ronnie Brewer, and Corey Brewer and maybe even Turner (and to a lesser extent Childress, just because he doesn’t seem to be quite on the same level of athleticism). And with a guy like Love and Pekovic who are supposed to be really good at the pick and roll. That’s why I think a guy like Aldrich could be a nice complement. He would be our 3rd starter who is a tremendous defender (we think), and he would thrive off of being in the right place (near the basket) at the right time (when Rubio/Turner dishes to him after drawing the blockers).
Considering our wings are our serious hole right now, it seems extremely easy to fix that within the next year alone. Brewer, Childress, Gay, and Turner/Aldrich are all very attainable. Let’s hope Kahn is reading our board!
Agreed.
While reading, it occurred to me that when I project Aldrich in my mind as an NBA player I see Rasho Nesterovic.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Good call.
Although Aldrich seems to be a bit more aggressive than Rasho (not saying much). And the Boy from Bloomington would be happy to have Rasho’s career earnings of $49 million.
I'm gonna throw my bet out there right now
Aldrich grosses more than $50M during his career. Big men are typically overpaid and he is coming into a market where inflation has taken a toll. After we get out of this recession and salaries get back to normal (which should be before the end of his first contract hopefully), inflation will continue to boost salaries. Also, I think he will have a long and moderately productive career. Like Przybilla, whether he is that good or not, I think there will always be a demand for his skills (unless he goes down with an injury, then all bets are off).
Sure, statistics are limited
if you purposely choose the misleading ones. Ariza and Brewer are similar by these stats, yes. But there is a glaring difference in their games, accounting for the difference in salary, which listing just FG% fails to show.
16% of Brewer’s FGA are 3 point attempts.
40% of Ariza’s FGA are 3 point attempts.
FG% will hide that, but any other scoring efficiency metric will reveal that Ariza is less of a liability on offense. What’s more, Ariza has shown some ability to become more efficient as a supporting member of a better offense. There’s no guarantee that Brewer, given a better offensive unit to play in, will start hitting open shots at an efficient clip like Ariza did with the Lakers. We just hope that he will.
So it’s fair the Ariza is paid twice as much, even if for the purposes of a Houston offense that asks too much of him he’s not that much better. Still, it is a useful comparison to make, if only that it shows that all Brewer really needs to reach Ariza’s level is a reliable 3 point shot.
Ariza
was also on the Lakers. And yes I think he benefited greatly from that. Mbenga and Brown this year are seeing that same thing. Obviously he is more talented than them and took better advantage of this. But what I am saying is that much of his success came as a product of the system. The Lakers still obviously preferred Artest to an “up and coming” player for roughly the same price.
If Corey was on the Lakers, I think his efficiency would be a lot higher (not necessarily making more 3s, but making a higher percentage of the shots he takes while taking fewer shots).
Yes and no
Yes! This is exactly why I think this comparison is so interesting. I thought I mentioned it earlier, but I now see that I didn’t do a good job of making the point about 3PA’s:
The main difference between the two at this point is that Ariza is hitting his three point shot at a much better rate than Corey.
Not only is Ariza making his 3’s at a much higher clip, as you pointed out he’s taking them at a much higher clip. This is most clearly shown by his eFG%, which is much better than Corey’s. However, per 36 minutes, they are otherwise much the same player production-wise. I have it in my head, whether or not it’s right or wrong, that Ariza is some star in the making and Corey is still fighting to prove he belongs in the NBA, but looking at these stats-for me-tells me two things: Corey ain’t that bad/Ariza isn’t as good as I may have thought, and that Corey could become a much more devastating player quicker than anyone thought if he too either added a consistent three ball or shot the 2 at a higher percentage. If Corey could shoot approx. .430, according to Wayne Winston (sorry, don’t have the link handy), he’d average between 2-3 more points a game (if Corey attempts 20 shots per game and makes one more of them, whether it’s a 2 or a 3, his percentage would go up by .05).
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
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