Kahn not using cap space next season?
by Rumblebee on Dec 20, 2009 7:40 PM CST
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PrintDavid Kahn about a month ago implied he may not make any significant moves (beyond the draft) to improve the team before next season (such as using cap space). I just saw another comment that gives me the same impression:
Sam Amick: Wolves content to wait for Rubio in the Sacramento Bee.
In the article about Rubio, Kahn mentioned he thinks the Wolves are three or four years away and will then explode as a contender (I'm paraphrasing). This is not the kind of comment someone would make if he were planning on using cap space to bring in a dynamic player this summer, or at the deadline in February. I am sure Kahn would pull the trigger if offered a ridiculous deal, but otherwise it appears the cap space will not be leveraged for at least another year.
My belief is Kahn will bring in a couple more draft choices this year, have another tough (learning?) season, then perhaps make a splash in 2011.
If next season starts and all the Wolves have done is add a couple rookies (let's assume one is not Wall), how will you feel? Can you suffer through another 30 win season with a reduced payroll? Do you still expect Kahn to make a big move before the deadline or next summer despite what he just said to Amick? If Kahn does continue to lower the payroll for another year and only brings in a couple rookies, will you still support "The Plan"?
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I'll feel incredibly angry and frustrated
Winning and trying to win matters. Punting seasons is a real problem for me, and while I understand the reasons for it this season, doing that another year is not OK.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 20, 2009 7:59 PM CST reply actions
I agree that "punting a season"
is bad, although I’m not sure exactly what it means.
I feel that the Wolves are making decisions this year based on wining games in 2-3 years. I have no problem with this strategy. I feel strongly that making decisions based on winning games this year will limit the # of games this team can win 2-3 years from now.
Now, making decisions in order to win games in 2-3 years is not synonymous with exactly what the wolves are doing. There are likely other strategies, other groups of players, other coaches that could be employed in order to maximize the number of victories this team earns in 2-3 years.
But what exactly are these other plans? What would we have the Wolves do differently now to win more games in 2-3 years?
Or do we have a problem with the very idea of making decisions now that are not about winning games now?
Ex post, we can discuss this past year’s draft and free agency and trades. Perhaps we draft Curry instead of Flynn, keep Foye, etc.
As an example, suppose the team drafts Curry instead of Flynn? I can’t imagine that they still would not suck and be putting a bad product out on the court. Perhaps this is where we disagree.
by littleboxes on Dec 20, 2009 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
The issue with "the plan"
is that he is going to sign someone to a large contract and they will subsequently get injured. Then we are out 8M per and right back to where we started. You can just build through the draft 100%. Portland is the closest thing to it, but they are even looking at signings now. The Spurs kind of made it work, but still, they sign a lot of guys. I think we definitely have to get a “future core” from the draft, but we can just stay in the lottery and hope all of our guys blow up at the same time. I’d prefer if we did something this year (as has been said many many times: Brewer, Childress, Gay) as opposed to waiting 3 years, because if it takes us that long to be even a playoff team, we will be out in the first round. Realistically, we should be able to make the playoffs in 2 years and be a drastically improved team next year. I would say next year with the FA offerings that we could get, but the top teams are still going to be pretty good next year.
Championships aren't built overnight (read: one season)...
unless you have young assets (like us) and Paul Pierce (like the C’s in ‘07), since the C’s are really the only team to go from terrible to Championship in one major trade, in one single year. We have comparable assets to what they did back then… minus Paul Pierce. Without our “Paul Pierce” we’re not gonna turn this around in a single year.
Teams that try to turn it around too quickly using their cap space on the wrong free agents don’t turn into championships. Golden State (Maggette), Philadephia (Brand) and the Clippers (B. Davis) are good examples of teams that spent a lot of free agent money on free agents that did not improve their teams. I am all for signing a free agent and gradually improving, but not if that free agent is not the exact type of player that we want to build around. Gay might be that guy but not if we overpay; J. Johnson might be that guy but not at his age; A. Stoudamire might be a great signing but not on a team that already features A. Jefferson. My point is that if the right free agent, for the right price is not available, then we should wait it out another year—as painful as it may be.
I want this team built for a championship—not annual first round exits—and in order to do that we need stars who do more than sell tickets a make high-flying dunks. We need players that fit our system and do the little things.
This team isn’t prepared for a playoff puch, Khan is right to wait another year. Free agents are meant to puch your team over the top—not start over (unless we’re talking someone like Shaq, just entering his prime like when he signed in LA, but Gay is not Shaq)
Building through free agency
is vastly overrated, anyway. First, you’re competing for free agents against anybody with cap room for an extremely limited number of players (don’t believe me? Pore over this list and tell me that more than five or six names honestly get you excited—and if so, then narrow that list down to those players who will possibly sign with the Wolves for “reasonable” money).
Questions are starting to rise over the wisdom of maxing out two of the supposed Big Three free agents available next summer. Wade’s conditioning is being questioned, and Bosh’s attitude and defense are not what you would like from someone wanting $18 mill or so a year. And none of those three are on teams that are exactly dominating the NBA. Who is going to be able to pay them max money, and (especially after any sign-and-trades) have any talent left over that far outpaces what they already are playing with?
The only way the Wolves can improve by adding an established star is also the best way: Trade for one who already has (or wants and deserves) a big money extension. The best way to do that is by retaining good young players on cheap contracts, high value expiring contracts, and draft picks—assets that the Wolves retain to a greater degree than most teams.
Now, the flip side to this coin is will the Wolves actually pay someone besides Love and Jefferson in, say, 2011, especially after they will have lost at least $10-20 million per year for 3 years in a row. A cynic would say that Kahn’s position of waiting-and-seeing is no more than a way to save money, and hope to get lucky in the draft. I do agree with S-n-P that what’s left of the fan base isn’t going to renew season tickets and ad packages for three straight years on the promise that 2012 is going to see the team go from .500 to the finals.
by PoorDick on Dec 20, 2009 10:52 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
excellent post
I feel like you burrowed into my brain, took some notes, and through your translation made my thoughts sound well reasoned and sophisticated. I need a cigarette.
by littleboxes on Dec 20, 2009 11:49 PM CST up reply actions
I think he's being misinterpreted
Him saying they’ll “explode” in 3-4 years doesn’t mean that they’ll be a 20-win team or even a lottery team until that point. It could mean that he doesn’t think they’ll be a title contender until that point, which is much different than being just a playoff contender. Also, it doesn’t mean that they won’t be looking to improve the roster beyond the draft until that point. It’s more that they won’t go for quick fixes or overpay guys who don’t deserve it. I do think that it means they won’t be cashing in any assets to trade for someone, which means that if Pek comes over he’ll be a Wolf.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Dec 21, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions
Another aspect to this...
If the CBA changes and salaries go down, wouldn’t it be better to save that space until the new agreement kicks in to get more bang for the buck?
by pagingstanleyroberts on Dec 21, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions
I bet you that salaries go down
In which case a lot of teams will be screwed in a few years. I expect a lockout. Think of all the crappy ball we won’t have to watch while all the other teams lose out on watching good ball,,,lol.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 21, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
Your bringing up the CBA gives me another thought
Maybe Taylor lets Kahn bring in a bad contract along with a good young player, knowing there is a very good chance that half a season of that bad contract could be wiped out by a lockout??? The other team in a trade may feel the same way, but if they are paying luxury tax will they take the sure thing and get rid of the bad contract?
It could happen
but I don’t think Glen Taylor would bet millions of dollars on it.
Good Call
I was going to post on this as well.
While I would probably favor adding talent, the uncertainty of the CBA is probably a bigger factor. Will better revenue sharing be in place? Will there be a lock-out, and how long will it last? The economics of the NBA could be set on its ear, and a decision now for a longterm contract could de-rail the team into the middle of the pack, which is the worst place to be (not winning enough for championships, not losing enough for lottery picks with superstar potential).
In the meantime, MIN is going to be carrying a commodity that nearly every other team will want — financial flexibility. There are 14 teams over the luxury threshold right now, and next season that threshold could drop an estimated $7 million dollars. Getting an expensive star would be nice, but adding high-upside pieces on greatly discounted prices this year might be an opportunity that’s hard to pass up.
Any link to Kahn’s comments 1 month ago? That comment in the Sacramento article was pretty nonspecific.
I’ve read Kahn’s 16 month plan comments, but nothing suggesting a change from that. The “exploding” comment could mean a lot of things including that it would coincide with Rubio’s potential NBA arrival. The Wolves are set up to improve via the draft this year, could push all in with their cap space and still “explode” when we’re ready to play the Rubio chip. Pekovic’s rights could also be used in a similar fashion depending on his ETA.
Think about it…we draft a stud wing (take your pick), maneuver for a 2nd lotto pick using our other assets, and max out in FA via a trade or signing (potentially Rudy Gay, trades for guys like Deng, Gerald Wallace, or combo signings of B. Haywood/T. Outlaw. That’s a lot of holes filled for next year. Possibly a fringe playoff team depending on our lotto pick success ready to play the Rubio card and “explode” in 2011-12.
A little late to this party
but a few comments.
The 3-4 years and explode comment has the backroom guys laughing their asses off. Kahn was hired no small part because he impressed the hell out of Taylor by proclaiming, with a high certainty, that he (Kahn) could turn the ship around in 2 years. Several of the other interested candidates, presented a far more realistic picture of 3-4 years. Taylor, feeling the sting from the “Blue Print” failure, was not interested in 3-4 years. Many of the moves Kahn made were to position the roster for the “splash” this summer. It has left the team far less competitive than Taylor believed it would be. As a result, walk up sales have been damn near zero. And freebies have been off the charts. (I was made an offer on the Dec. 26 game at $1,000 for something that I have historically paid $4,000 for – unfortunately I had to pass) The loss are mounting.
But guess what? Kahn isn’t going to land a superstar free agent. In feeling out agents, he has learned that no one in that category will select MN. The climate sucks and the players don’t see immediate championship potential. They will accept less money to play elsewhere. The best we will get is a B level star who has some issues (baggage or unrealized potential) Not very attractive.
So, Kahn is now on plan B – to be a facilitator at the trade deadline. It is widely speculated that this trade deadline will be the most active in decades as teams 1) position themselves for this year’s title, or 2) position themselves financially to get a max free agent (or 2) this summer, or 3) cut costs to get under the luxury tax. Kahn has the guys doing a tremendous amount of pro scouting to be prepared. He will pull the trigger on anything that gets us to 40-45 wins quickly while protecting the best of the draft picks in hopes of getting lottery luck to get a superstar that moves us from 40-45 to 50-55.
But if the trade deadline passes without big moves, most FO folks figure that Plan C – the 3-4 year through the draft plan will be the only viable option. It is something you now hear Kahn mentioning as he positions the media/fans for that outcome. In this case, expiring contracts will be allowed to expire and the Twolves will be a very low payroll club to match our very low revenue. In this scenario, I would see Big Al traded – if for no other reason than to get out from under his contract during the 3-4 years we are rebuilding.
I find this stuff absolutely fascinating. It speaks volumes to Taylor’s ability to own a pro sports franchise.
by Just A Fan on Dec 22, 2009 11:11 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
A few points
(1) If Kahn was stupid enough to believe he could land a James/Wade/Bosh in FA or GT stupid enough to believe Kahn’s talk of doing so, this franchise is in trouble because Leadership is living in fantasy land.
(2) Kahn stated as far back as last summer, along with his refusal to buyout Cardinal or Blount that the trade deadline was always a factor. Characterizing it now as plan B continues your negative characterization of everything Kahn-related.
(3) I think Pick #5 being Rubio rather than Evans/Harden dictated the lengthier timeline. When a cornerstone player of the future (whether you believe he is coming over or not) won’t arrive for 2-3 years after your first draft, Plan C becomes a necessity.
And finally, (4) it’s laughable to suggest that any combination of Foye, Miller, Telfair, Smith, or Songaila gives this team more than 5 extra wins and I doubt “walk up sales” improve unless this team is at least .500 with a positive buzz. Yeah we can talk about Miller’s injuries but the rest of the Smorgasborg of suck are bit players on teams below .500.
Ebomb
First off, I am not a Kahn fan for reasons mentioned already and not needed to be repeated. I did not pass any judgment nor speak of the wisdom of the trades in this post. Just stated the facts – Kahn did that to prepare the roster for the future. You brought up the other stuff.
The A/B/C was not meant to express a value judgment on the options – rather to put them in the logical chronological order that they are being addressed. Personally, in my order of preference, I would do B followed by C and A.
Kahn has no visions of grandeur regarding James/Wade/Bosh. But he really did think he had some chances at guys like Joe Johnson. He was surprised to learn that is currently not the case. Personally, I think if Kahn had study some of the more recent (last 2 years) FA movements closer, he would have more quickly realized that for many of the “stars” winning has taken precedent over money.
Finally, I think its time to go elsewhere to discuss the Twolves. Its obvious that you and a couple of others don’t appreciate my insights or comments. Maybe it’s time to stop posting.
I wish Britt’s blog was back.
No problem
just a little edgy today. Must be the snow.
Thought you might like this from Chad Ford’s chat today.
Mark (Westchester NY)
everyone always points to the Pau trade… the Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson trades were more lopsided… HAS ANYONE SEEN MARC GASOL PLAY???
Chad Ford
Yes. The salary cap (and thus the luxury tax threshold) are expected to drop big time this summer. That means GMs will be scrambling to get their payroll either further under the cap or under the luxury tax threshold now. I expect we’ll see several very lopsided deals where one team steals talent and the other team gets back tax relief or more cap space.
I believe that is what Kahn is position us for – and I support that 100%.
For what it's worth
I enjoy your comments and insights. Helps add a much needed layer of context and perspective to the rest of us rubes here.
And not to minimize or defend anyone, I would also simply add that I think we’re all a little ansty for some progress on the talent regarding this team. When you’re 5 and whatever, looking good one game out of three (and losing the other two by 20+), well, any hint of legit information that comes from inside that isn’t of the “Here’s how we’re going to make ourselves awesome in two weeks!” variety is a buzz-kill (well, maybe not buzz, but whatever is passing as buzz these days, like maybe a murmur. It’s a murmur-kill!). And not because we don’t like hearing it or that we disagree with it, just that we’d all rather be cheering a team that’s taking it to Denver and LA night in and night out instead of making sure other teams aren’t kicking our dog as well.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Chiming in...
Divergent opinions are great fun to read, especially when explained in thoughtful detail. An impassioned post will often be met with an equally impassioned response. I can’t speak for Ebomb, but I don’t think you should take it personally, Just A Fan. I miss reading Britt on a regular basis, but I don’t miss his blog because SNP and Wyn have made Canis a great clearinghouse for all things hoops-related. Furthermore, a number of the most knowledgeable posters from Britt’s site, such as PSR, sound off over here regularly. Anyway, I really enjoy the back-and-forth that happens here, regardless of how one feels about Kahn’s plan, etc.
Agreed
a lot of comments come off different in type than how we meant to convey them. I don’t think Ebomb meant to degrade the actual comment at all, just to express his opinion in contrast to Kahn’s and JAF’s. I know it has happened to me a couple times, but it really usually leads to a very intelligent debate. This is a great thing about Canis, that there are so many intelligent posters here. And this insight from JAF is always nice to see. Maybe in 10 years, Canis can become a minority shareholder of the Timberwolves. Wouldn’t that be awesome?
A few points
(1) If Kahn was stupid enough to believe he could land a James/Wade/Bosh in FA or GT stupid enough to believe Kahn’s talk of doing so, this franchise is in trouble because Leadership is living in fantasy land.
(2) Kahn stated as far back as last summer, along with his refusal to buyout Cardinal or Blount that the trade deadline was always a factor. Characterizing it now as plan B continues your negative characterization of everything Kahn-related.
(3) I think Pick #5 being Rubio rather than Evans/Harden dictated the lengthier timeline. When a cornerstone player of the future (whether you believe he is coming over or not) won’t arrive for 2-3 years after your first draft, Plan C becomes a necessity.
And finally, (4) it’s laughable to suggest that any combination of Foye, Miller, Telfair, Smith, or Songaila gives this team more than 5 extra wins and I doubt “walk up sales” improve unless this team is at least .500 with a positive buzz. Yeah we can talk about Miller’s injuries but the rest of the Smorgasborg of suck are bit players on teams below .500.
Here here
(or is it, Hear hear?)
Anyways, Glen has proven that he’s able to live in fantasy land pretty easily when it comes to the Wolves, so that’s nothing new. It can’t be stressed enough (in my opinion) that all the guys we traded away are doing absolutely nothing important for their new teams, just like they’d be doing nothing important over the long run for us. Only two guys stand out to me as possible mistrades: Miller (sort of but not really) and QRich (who apparently has remembered how to stay in shape and play the game). But neither of those guys takes us over the hump.
I still think Kahn is doing a good job running this organization. Sure, there’s stuff to nitpick on, but given our owner and the state of things when he got here I think he’s doing a pretty good job:
-if the plan was Evans in the draft, then what are you going to do? We’ve discussed this already. He got Rubio, the talent who fell. Rubio’s not here because of money, and even then he was this close to coming over.
-He drafted another guy, Flynn, who’s consistently ranked as the third best rookie this year while playing in a system that won’t let him do what he does best (yet). Furthermore, Flynn is progressing as the season goes on, not regressing, and that’s a very good sign.
-He picked up another first rounder in a better draft for positions of need next year, getting at least equal value (slot-wise) for what he gave up. Will whoever we draft with the Bobcats’ pick be better than Lawson? Tough comparison, but it definitely helps our team more than having 3 PGs or a player drafted too high for that slot out of need.
-He’s gotten rid of a lot of deadwood players and contracts. This is huge. I am amazed at how little all the guys we’ve gotten rid of have done elsewhere. To be rid of all the future commitments to them, or the distraction of “Do we resign Foye” is huge in my book.
-and probably his best move: he hired a great coach in Rambis and enabled him to hire a fantastic set of assistants. Short of landing Wall or whoever else blows up from next year’s draft, this will be a 3-4 year thing. Our players may change, but our coaching staff is rock solid and is the core upon which all of this will be built. If you don’t trust Kahn then trust Rambis and Co. to remake this franchise from the inside out.
And for what it’s worth, the Wolves would be in hell no matter. If we’d kept last year’s crew and won a few more games, what would the upside be? A lower lottery pick for ourselves, no Bobcats pick, deciding what to do with Foye and Miller? It’d be a whole lot of suckitude for the chance to scrape into the 8th playoff spot for the next few years at best. It would be a commitment to middling mediocrity. No thanks. Blow it up, build through the draft and trades, develop your coaching staff and players/system, then attack for something more meaningful than a first round exit.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Dec 22, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Excellent
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Dec 23, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
Good post
I think the 1st couple paragraphs did a good job of linking many variables that I see leading to lower payroll the next couple of years unless Kahn gets a deal too good to refuse. I think a couple teams will have that happen, Wolves are certainly positioned well, but I won’t hold my breath.
Your AL comment at the end is something that I have been thinking, but not willing to post yet because I want to see what happens at the deadline. I think they can keep AL happy another year if he sees progress, but if this does stretch out further it may be in the best interest of both parties to move AL. However, I don’t know that it will be done to save payroll. As it stands, if they sign two 1st rounders next year and bring back Jawai and Wilkins on the cheap, their payroll will be less than $45 million next year w/o any other moves.
Recommended with two giant thumbs up.
Thank you so much for taking the time to weigh in on this stuff. Not to slobber, but few of us have the triple-threat combination of being a huge fan of the team, spending as much real money out of pocket as you do, and looking at the team from the economic perspective of a business owner, rather than just a . . . uh, fan.
Al needs to go now, for any three “potential” guys on rookie contracts. Then if they succeed, the Wolves can re-up them under the new, lower CBA salaries. I’m guessing the team wouldn’t probably be a whole lot worse than 5-24, and someone else can pay Al a third of their team salary for the next several years.
If Al has to go now...
Then Gomes should already be out the door.
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