The draft is coming, and I need your input
by Oceanary on Dec 3, 2009 2:02 PM CST
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PrintI'm going to add a section to the weekly NBA update posts covering the status of the picks owed to us by the Bobcats and Jazz, as well as how our top draft prospects faired that week.
So what I need is a list of college players you want watched that would have a good chance of being a top 5 pick (because I'm not going to monitor 30 some-odd players every week). We'll go with maybe 5 or 6 names and watch them the rest of the year.
I'll assume we all want to monitor John Wall, Evan Turner, and Cole Aldrich. I'll throw Derrick Favors into the list as well, so that leaves 1 or 2 more players I need from you guys.
Or, if you'd prefer, I can watch most of the top prospects, but only post about them if they do something extraordinary that week.
As an early first update though, Evan Turner is tearing it up right now. 20.6ppg, 13rpg, 6.6apg, 1.7spg, 1.4bpg leading Ohio State to a 6-1 record, with that one loss being a 4 point contest to North Carolina.
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I put these suggestions up on a post about 1-2 month ago
Schools with Particular prospects (not necessarily positions of need):
Kentucky – Wall (PG), Bledsoe (PG), Patterson (PF), Cousins (PF/C), Orton©
Georgia Tech – Favors (PF), Aminu (PF)
Kansas – Aldrich ©, Henry (SG), Collins (SG)
Texas – Bradley (PG/SG), Hamilton (SF)
Ohio State – Turner (SG/SF), Buford (SG)
UNC – Henson (PF), Davis (PF)
FSU – Alabi, Singleton (SG/SF)
Oklahoma – Warren (PG/SG)
West Virginia – Ebanks (SF/PF)
Virginia – Landesberg (SG)
Washington – Gaddy (PG), Pondexter (SG/SF)
Wake Forest – Aminu (SF/PF)
You could probably cross off Collins, Warren, Gaddy, and I saw Alabi and don’t really think he gives us anything that Hollins doesn’t or can’t. Feel free to pair down even more.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 3, 2009 2:08 PM CST reply actions
With two potential late or non-lotto picks in the 13-25 range, would nice to get more players in on the mix. I’m thinking specifically of four older college players who could be of nice value in the Mid 1st round and who may be able to log minutes on the bench.
Monroe – Georgetown
Robinson – UConn
Singler – Duke
Sanders – VCU
Wesley Johnson
I’d like to hear as much as possible about this guy. Syracuse has been destroying teams (including Cal and UNC) and he’s putting up big all-around numbers. He’s shooting 55% from 3 and is compared by Chad Ford to Joe Johnson. If he keeps this up, and is a legit prospect, it seems like the logical “big, athletic, wing that can shoot from distance” that we’d otherwise pay Rudy Gay $11+ Million per year for.
Any observations on Johnson would be cool.
Yup on Johnson
I’d second that. As of now I like Turner better, but Johnson is also the type of guy we need and should be looking at.
So yeah. Besides the guys you mentioned: Ebanks, Aminu, Xavier Henry, if we’re only talking top 10 types.
Ya, I' prefer to just talk about our top pick
Certainly there’s names to talk about with the Cats and Jazz pick like Alibi, Jerome Jordan, Stanley Robinson or Greg Monroe, but I’m just not going to be able to track that many players every week.
Certainly Wesley Johnson is a name to keep an eye on though. I’d be willing to add him to the list, but let’s see what everyone has to say.
Definitely
Wes. Not sold on Monroe. He could barely enforce his will on temple. Alabi looked like Hollins 2.0 without the extreme hops.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 3, 2009 4:01 PM CST reply actions
I can if people want
But there’s not a whole lot to talk about week-to-week on him. Despite this past summer, he’s a low drama kid. He goes out and plays, and that’s about it.
Xavier Henry
He’s a SG, he’s young, and so far, he’s been hitting the 3.
whoops
Didn’t see him on TheEvilProfessor’s (very complete) list.
Sounds like there is a lot of intrigue over this fivesome of wings: Aminu, Ebanks, Turner, Johnson, Henry
Here is a statistical comparison from DraftExpress: http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?year=2009%2F10&q=&per=pergame&qual=first2010&sort=6&min=20&stage=all&league=NCAA&conference=0&Compare=Submit+Comparison&pos=all&sort2=DESC&pid11327=11327&pid44091=44091&pid35852=35852&pid43687=43687&pid35870=35870
Not sure if that link worked well. Try this and then you can check the box by each player to do a comparison
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 3, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
From reviewing that comparison
I would say hands down that Wes, Henry and Turner are much better players than Ebanks and Aminu. With Wes looking like the best all around player from a shooting, and D standpoint (limited by Blks, Stls and PFs). Turner has the edge in Reb, Ast and has lots of TO, but he also plays point for OSU so the comparison is skewed. His reb #’s are legit though.
Right now I would say I am looking at:
Wesley Johnson, Evan Turner, Xavier Henry, Derrick Favors, Cole Aldrich, and John Wall. Not sure about Donatas…haven’t seen him play.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 8:01 AM CST up reply actions
Still early
I’m just not comfortable figuring who makes the most sense yet, but what is encouraging is that there are a lot of guys putting up some pretty impressive numbers, and a few of them are wings. Conference play and the season ending tourneys will tell us a lot more.
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 4, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
yeah
also from a bigs standpoint,
Jerome Jordan, Solomon Alabi, Cole Aldrich and Derrick Favors are the ones that look most promising.
Monroe, Udoh, and some of the others on the list all have what I would call fatal flaws in that they are either horrible FT shooters, make poor decisiions by lots of TO’s and make less than 1 point per attempt.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
That's why this is just an update
and we can and most likely will change our priorities list as the season goes along. But it’s still fun to keep tabs on these guys and see where people start and where they end up. For example, if we had done this last year, we probably wouldn’t have even watched Flynn until the last 2 weeks of the tourny… which is probably a good sign that we shouldn’t have drafted him (although I wont bet against the guy just yet).
Pretty much everyone is a PF.
And beyond that, a lot of the elite SFs look more like combo forwards and a lot of the SGs are closer to combo guards. The only guys I’m following:
The Frontrunners
PG John Wall
C Cole Aldrich
SG – Evan Turner
Guys to Keep an Eye on
PF Derrick Favors
PF Donatas Montiejunas:
would have to look like surefire superstars
SG Xavier Henry
SG Wesley Johnson
C Solomon Alabi: would have to play themselves into the top 10 range.
SF Al-Farouq Amino
SF Devin Ebanks
would have to prove themselves capable shooters, true SFs.
That’s ten guys, and I really only expect three of them to be realistic selections with the Wolves’ likely top 3 pick. Everyone else can be pretty much written off and forgotten.
Personally, I think Favors has a lot more star potential than Aldrich or Evans
I’ll track Cole because he gets talked about so often, but I’ve never seen him show anything that makes me think he’ll be any better than Brad Miller. Evans is extremely skilled, but he doesn’t appear to have anything that will translate into a standout ability in the NBA.
Favors on the other hand is an incredible athlete, strong, with skill at both ends of the court and a sky high basketball IQ. He’s got the potential to be everything we thought Amare Stoudemire was going to become.
Turner Evans?
I thought I was clear enough, but yes I agree, Favors has more star potential than Aldrich or Evan Turner. However, he needs to look like a surefire star, worthy of getting rid of Jefferson or Love for. He won’t be that until he has a full season of studly college production on his resume.
I'd add Warren to that list
He doesn’t have ideal size, but if we’re looking for scoring, he might be the best non-Wall option out there. Certainly worth looking at, despite his potential defensive liabilities.
for that reason alone
I would say no. I haven’t been impressed with Warren and there are so many more appealing options, so why waste your time? Whatever wing scorer we get, they need to be athletic and have a well rounded game considering that the rest of the roster has so many holes to their games that we can’t continually overlook fatal flaws like this. IMO.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
I agree that he’s not the first choice given our current roster, but I can see a scenario in which he’d start looking good. Here’s one not-to-convoluted possibility: we sign Gay; trade Love or Jefferson for a better defensive center (or another high pick with which to draft one); and Turner and Wall are off the board. With that roster, Warren’s scoring could be a big plus. And I’m not yet sure we know whether Warren has any “fatal flaws”. DX cited his “defensive potential” as an asset, even as it listed his ACTUAL defense as a weakness.
I figure with the depth in this draft
of potential centers, PFs and SFs, Warren will slide most likely into the second round or at least end of the first.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
That would be a huge drop
from current expectations. DX has him at #5 and Chad Ford has him at #7. It’s early for evaluating player rankings, but I don’t think it’s THAT early.
Wow
That’s a ballsy prediction right there. I’d be more likely to think that with the glut of big men, SGs and PGs might be in tall order next draft (more so SGs because PGs were taken care of this year).
if someone
wants to draft what is a less than stellar PG/SG in a draft where they can get a better player at any other position…fine by me. It is a very stupid drafting strategy IMO. Take talent…not need. You can find a servicable pro for one year until next years draft. Don’t waste a pick by overdrafting a player.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 6, 2009 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing about the player
I am just pretty positive he will be in the first round, probably in or near the lottery. I don’t want him in the slightest.
Warren will go in the lottery if only because he's one of only maybe three outstanding guards in this draft
But I’m very wary of him. His build, average athleticism, and skillset all seem to point to him being a Randy Foye clone.
Like Foye, I’m sure some team will gamble that he can be turned into a point guard, and take him based on that.
I haven't actually seen him play
but from looking at his stats, he looks like a Ben Gordon clone. High volume scorer, but not very efficient on a high level? Maybe I am wrong, but that’s what the stats scream to me.
But wasn't that based on him being a pro PG?
He’s not big, long, or strong enough to guards SGs.
OK
So John Wall, Evan Turner, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Favors and Wesley Johnson. Are we good with that?
Meaning, if we have a top 5 pick, are these the five guys that would top your draft board?
Another thought
Do we try to use our picks/assets to move up so that we have 2 top 10 picks again?
Derrick Favors
Could play the 5 in the NBA. He’s only 6’9 – 6’10 but has an excellent wingspan. He’s also listed at 250 LBS by ESPN. He could develop into an excellent high-low combo with Kevin Love in an Up-Tempo Scheme.
I'm sick of
“could” play the 5. Al Jefferson “could play the 5.” Against most teams it works. But against Portlands, Lakers, and Orlandos you need a true center. Favors isn’t that any more than Big Al is.
It’s not to say I wouldn’t take him. If Wall is taken and Favors looks like a true star, he should be the pick. But ultimately, our rotation needs a true center, and there’s no way around it. Taking Favors means you trade Al or Love and try to bring in a Gortat type.
isn't oden done for the year?
He will never be the player he was drafted to be. His body is already breaking down. It’s sad because everyone will be robbed of watching him play.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 6, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions
Of Course
I diasgree if Favors is long-enough and strong enough he can play the 5. Judging by his college stats so far from this year- he makes his living inside. As far as the Defensive end of the court players like Chuck Hayes can be effective at the 5 due to positioning and strength, agile players like Anderson Varejao are able to do well at 6’11 due to agility to be all over the place. We can search far and wide for a talented big- with his skill set that’s 2 inches taller- I doubt we’re finding it. The issues against the Lakers, Portland, and Orlando come more from Al being an awful defensive player. As far as needing a Tyson Chandler/Derrick Favors front-court- the reason Love and Jefferson play well off each other is due to spacing. A Chandler/Favors front-line would have problems in this area.
Watching Wall right now
Shakiest game I’ve seen from his this year, although UNC is by far the toughest opponent he’s faced yet.
Also, Ohio State decimated East Michigan so badly that Turner only had to play 7 minutes…and Ohio State still won 111-60.
He got injured.
Apparently he fell really hard on his back from dunking. He got fouled and was holding on to the rim, his legs went up so his whole body was horizontal and he fell like that out of bounds… didn’t get up for a couple minutes. Walked off by himself though.
Ya, I just saw the replay of it
Bad bad landing. He’s lucky he didn’t go out cold…Shawn Marion and Gerald Wallace have both sustained multiple concussions on plays just like that
Turner is out for 8 weeks. Broke bones in his back from the fall.
You were a daydreamer, a sass-mouth, and, not infrequently, a bit of a gigglepuss. Somehow I doubt twenty years of amphetamines and failure have done anything to improve that.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Dec 5, 2009 4:50 PM CST up reply actions
Oceanary
Just wondering how you are planning on doing this? If you are actually going to watch their games, that’s impressive and thanks a lot for finding the time to do so. With this strategy, I would recommend focusing on Kentucky (My prediction to take it all – and keep notes on their big 3 freshman and Patterson), Kansas (will get you Aldrich and Xavier Henry), Ohio (With a focus on Evan Turner and small notes on David Lighty for a second rounder), and Georgia Tech (Aminu and Favors).
If you are just doing some stat analysis and updates, then I could definitely do some extra research to get us notes on some other guys who we could get further down (Cousins, Lighty, etc). If you want me to do this, you should get me some names to focus on and I’ll keep paying attention.
Also, I wrote a few notes about Turner in a recent game thread, but I will try to repost here and see what I can remember:
Terrific wingspan and he knows how to use it. Good body control and he is always looking up court for a play. His best asset will far and away be his rebounding. He gets in position to get a rebound and he usually seemed to win the fight for it. He has very nice ups and a very nice vertical reach and again, knows how to use this to his advantage. When he isn’t in a spot where he can get a rebound, he is usually one of the first people down the court waiting for a long outlet pass (and from what I saw, no one was even that close to him so the passes wouldn’t have been too dangerous). He came off of some screens very closely and got into the lane because of it, he could definitely benefit from a guy like KG or Bogut (hopefully Love?) who know how to set big screens (and in Bogut’s case, legal screens). He was an active player on defense, constantly using his hands and arms to try to keep his guy guessing about passes. That said, he actually just went down really hard on his back and had to be taken to the hospital in todays game. Dang.
Couple notes on the Kentucky/UNC game I am watchign right now:
Demarcus Cousins looks like Kendrick Perkins every time a call doesn’t go his way, he just got benched for a hard foul which didn’t really look like a play on the ball. He just got benched a second time for a dumb foul and Calipari tore into him, Cousins just looked pissed off and kinda yelled back a bit. Maybe he will learn a lesson or two from Calipari. Patterson looks like he puts forth a ton of effort and is usually rewarded for it. He got out of position on one play and someone on UNC got the rebound and went up for a dunk, Patterson came back from out of bounds under the hoop and got a block on the ball inches before it went in (it got called, but I honestly don’t even think it was possible to hit the guy before the ball in that position). He hustles constantly and is usually one of the first few guys down the court. He seems like a decent finisher. Bledsoe looks decent, very quick with his hands. He made a cardinal sin as a PG tho (dribbled under the hoop and then jumped before he knew who he was passing to which led to a TO). He went to the bench a while later and didn’t look like he cared at all what his coach had to tell him. On to John Wall. He looks like he is in a league of his own during transition plays. He has finished 3 amazing transition plays so far. Two of those were layups that he had to right to make. The kid is fast. Really fast. He blew one transition play by not hitting the open guy (granted he stopped trailing and went back out to the 3pt line… bad idea right there) and losing his dribble instead. He has had a ton of turnovers this game, mostly because of playing too fast for his brain to keep up with his body. Looks like he’ll get that figured out eventually though. The team lives and dies by Wall though. When he was taking over the game, Kentucky was up by 15 or so. When he stopped, UNC has been able to get back in to the game.
Strickland just had an amazingly athletic dribble penetration and dunk. Wow.
That’s really all I’ve got, haven’t noticed too much individual defense, but Kentucky’s team defense seem sto have it figured out (Patterson might be a big help in this area).
No, I won't be able to watch every game
I’ll see maybe on or two of their games a month, which should be enough, plus highlights, analysis, news feeds from local papers, and talk with fans of those teams who are more connected in with them than I am. Fortunately a lot of fans that post or blog about college teams are college students themselves, so I pick up a lot of chatter right off campuses.
Wall
His speed and quickness are elite and his shooting mechanics look really solid. He doesn’t have the wide frame of Derrick Rose or Dwayne Wade — but his length, quickness and shooting ability should make him the clear-cut #1 pick in the draft and a great NBA guard. There just aren’t very many guys that can move like that with the ball. If he continues to improve his jumpshot, he’ll be impossible to defend one-on-one.
Having watched him just once (today) I think Allen Iverson is a better comparison than Derrick Rose. He thinks pass more than a young Iverson, but their physical tools seem more similar than Wall vs Rose, who move in very different ways with the ball. Wall is quick/elusive and crosses over a lot. Rose uses hesitation dribbles, and initiates contact whenever possible.
He’ll be a blast to watch this year.
Iverson is a tough comparison
just because of the height difference. Wall could potentially play SG in the NBA, but I definitely see where you are coming from. If you can get over the physically differences, there are definitely similarities. From what I have seen of Rose so far, I would honestly say I would rather start my franchise with Wall as my PG than Rose. Obviously its a long year and this could change, but it seems as if Wall’s ceiling has no limits. You are right that he has nice shooting mechanics. It would be nice to see him put on some more muscle too, but that will all come when he gets to the next level. He has the explosiveness to learn to use those hesitation moves, but he does seem to favor speed over quickness in beating his man. Just think what he could become if he learns to use all of his abilities.
Wall doesn’t look very big out there. I’d be interested to read his official measurements at the next combine. I’m guessing he’s closer to 6’2 than he is 6’4. We’ll see. My Iverson comparison is more geared toward how they attack defenses. Wall seems to have that cat-like quickness and he wants to create separation before blowing by his man. Rose, on the other hand, wants more contact and makes his plays after bouncing off defenders. Maybe not big differences, though.
Wall vs. Rose is a good argument that will probably be made over the next decade. Rose is stronger and (at least until I see more from Wall) a better finisher in the lane. Wall has a prettier jumpshot. Both are incredibly fast.
I’d love it if the Wolves got John Wall, I know that.
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