M.V.W.
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 6, 2009 11:27 AM CST
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PrintIt's a different team. In just two games it's a different team. From style to defense to confidence to the feeling in the crowd, Kevin Love has changed this team from a squad that was featured in "worst ever" conversations on ESPN (really, they went that far) to one that looks like it could see a few more 2-2 weeks before the season is over.
Is two games enough to call Love the best player on the Wolves? Is it enough to give him the title of the Most Valuable Wolf? I don't know about the sample size but I do know this: When Big Al Jefferson went down with a season-ending knee injury, each and every person in the stands knew exactly what the Wolves lost: 20 points/10 rebounds. When Kevin Love was out for 6 weeks with a broken bone in his left hand, what did the Wolves lose? Rebounding, defense, transition play, 1/2 court spacing...the list goes on and on. Again, we're dealing with an extremely small sample size but I think it's enough to admit, at the very least, that Love is the straw that stirs the drink. (Personally, I'd go farther than that; I think he's the best player on the squad by a long margin but we'll wait for 20 games before fleshing that one out.)
In last night's contest Love finished with 18 points on 6-9 shooting (2-3 from 3) with 10 boards and 4-4 from the line in 26:29. It was all on display. The rebounding, the outlet passes, the team defense, the way in which he completely changes the Wolves' 1/2 court offense...it's absurd. This guy simply keeps possessions alive or ends them in a favorable fashion at a stunning clip. This is the key to his play and it is what I mention whenever someone who doesn't know much about basketball asks me about his game: Whether that is ripping a defensive rebound away from an opposing player and hitting a teammate in stride 50 feet down the court for an easy layup or tipping an offensive rebound out to a guard for an open jumper, there is no other player on the team who does more stuff than Kevin Love. Stat sheet or no stat sheet, he does stuff, and that's all you really need to know. (Although it should be noted that this stuff does indeed show up on the stat sheet in one way or another. Love consistently leads the team in Popcorn Machine's HV, which is reb + block + assist + steal - turnovers . Last night he ended up with a team high of 12. He did so in about 8 minutes fewer than the next closest challenger.)
As for the team, check out the Four Factors from last night's tilt:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| Utah | 92.0 | 109.8 | 51.2% | 15.1 | 26.7 | 15.2 |
| Minnesota | 117.4 | 59.7% | 20.8 | 25.0 | 14.1 |
Not bad, not bad at all. The eFG is through the roof for 2 reasons: limited 3 point shooting and a large number of transition buckets. The Wolves went 4-9 from beyond the arc while finishing with 17 points in transition. Nothing will help a poor shooting club more than limiting their 3s and getting layups in transition....well, nothing except a ton of free throws, which ended up in the Wolves favor too, as they ended up with 7 more FTAs than Utah.
The other big theme of the game was Wayne Ellington. Once again Corey Brewer did not play in the fourth quarter and the sole recipient of his minutes was his fellow Final Four MVP, Mr. Ellington. In the fourth, Ellington scored 8 points on 3-3 shooting from the floor, 2-2 shooting from the line, with 4 rebounds and 1 assist. He made two key defensive rebounds that triggered easy buckets on the other end and, best of all, he played good enough defense along side of his excellent offense to swing the Brewer Balance in his favor. For those of you who don't know what the Brewer Balance is, it is the equation that determines when the former Gator should be taken off the court. Whenever a player comes along whose combination of offensive prowess and defensive adequacy can produce better results than Brewer's defensive mastery and offensive ineptitude, the Brewer Balance swings away from Corey and, in this case, to Wayne.
One of the best things about Ellington at UNC was that his usage rate in Carolina was probably right around the relative percentage he could put up in the NBA. He wasn't the top dog on UNC but he still produced and was effective. He has a similar role with the Wolves. Al Jefferson is Ty Hansbrough, Jonny Flynn is Ty Lawson, Ryan Gomes is Danny Green and Kevin Love was played by Ed Davis and Deon Thompson. Ellington falls somewhere near the intersection of role player and significant contributor and it all depends on how the game comes his way. That's a good professional player to have on your roster and it will be interesting to see if Ellington can continue to adjust to the NBA and how close he can really get to the role he played at UNC. So far, the Wolves have to be encouraged by his play. It's the type of performance that seamlessly fits into a rotation.
One of the things that we have talked about on this site since the start of training camp is that Ryan Gomes may have priced himself out of the 2010 guarantee on his contract, especially considering the fact that Corey Brewer's option was exercised. Check out Gomes' numbers from the last 5 games. Last night he went for 23/5/5 on 9-10 shooting and some fantastic mid-range 2 man game work with Kevin Love and Jonny Flynn. If Gomes continues to play like he has over the last 5-10 games, and if he can continue to do so in the part of the offense that best highlights his skills, is he worth the $4.2 guaranteed option on his contract? He's been the Wolves best player this year (until Kevin Love came along) and he, along with Love, are the team's best 2-way players (Sessions could probably be thrown in here as well if he was given more minutes).
Wrapping this thing up, the Wolves are dangerously close to being able to field a competitive two way team that can bring it on a night-in/night-out basis. Their wing play is the big hold up but between Love, Gomes, Sessions, Jefferson and Flynn, they have guys who belong out there and that's a big upgrade over what we have seen in recent years. What is amazing about this is that Love appears to be the player to make it all work. Without him, we're seeing a lack of effort and a bunch of crap. With him, it's all different....or at least it has been for two games. I have a feeling it will be for many more.
What say you?
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Shouldn't be commenting because I didn't see the game
But one thing I thought throughout the start was that Love would start turning some of those closer losses into wins (Houston, Memphis, the Clippers 2x, maybe Milwaukee), especially after seeing how the loss of Smith and Miller coupled with his injury turned them into a minus-rebounding team. Thankfully a broken non-shooting hand is much easier to recover from and work around than a torn ACL (my guess is his start doesn’t curry any favor for Al with some fans like many on the Strib board). The schedule has eased since the road game in Denver (the Wolves are down to #11 in SOS on basketball-reference), which has also helped. As does the Wolves having confidence against Utah due to their two close losses here and their win there late in the year with no Al.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Dec 6, 2009 11:44 AM CST reply actions
Contrasted with Jefferson so far, it's not close
Al Jefferson is off in several areas statistically, and we do have almost 20 games to measure that by. The falloff is there in his bread and butter post scoring, and it’s there in his rebounding, and basically it’s there in everything but his assist percentage which has grown every year he’s been in the league and is up a bit more than usual now.
The barometer on both the Wolves’ and Jefferson’s season, though, is headed up at a nice moment, just when Love’s return gave us a shot in the arm. I’ll happily see the two of them compete for your M.V.W. title. More than happily.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Makes me want to revisit...
…“Al’s a #2 on a championship team, and Love’s a #4 guy.” Despite it only being two games, I think the Love effect is true and will be born out over the rest of the season. I just don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Wolves have looked the most consistent and efficient-like they actually know what they’re doing-in the two games Love has played. (Although there were indications, like the Denver game, that they were starting to put it together a little. Still, though, Love’s play appears to be THE catalyst that jumpstarts this team and gets other guys going).
Now depending on what championship squad you want to compare to DK’s comments may still hold true. But I think, as of this two game sample, we need to reassess those comments. Love isn’t a go-to offensive player, or defensive player, and he isn’t a huge mismatch, so he’ll never be a #1 guy, or maybe even a #2 guy. But he still maybe the most valuable guy on the team, if that makes any sense. I also think SnP’s point about what went missing when Al went down versus when Love went down is spot on. (Sidenote-does anyone else wonder if Al’s career will kind of end up like Zach Randolph’s, without being a cancer/headcase? Great stats but doesn’t exactly help the team? Al is a much better teammate, though.)
What I think is most interesting is that Al seems to be playing some of his best ball of the season now that Love is back. Perhaps some of the improvement is just natural recovery/return from injury stuff, but it’s interesting to me that Love may make Al better than Al makes Love. If I had to choose cornerstones for this franchise, I’d start with Love, figure out which of the three PGs is the one you want, and find a competent outside wing scorer/defender (speaking of which-Ronnier Brewer? Do want.) I like Al’s low post scoring, but at some point if you can get your wing star for the price of Al Jeff, do you do it? Is it easier to find a Reggie Evans type down low than it is to find your dynamic wing? Finally, is Kyle Korver going to be too expensive/one dimensional for this team next year?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
These labels are ridiculous
- vs. a #4 or a #1? What skillset does it take to be this type of a player? I ask because people seem to think that a #1 needs to be able to get off his own shot and be a go-to offensive player, but why? Why can’t your #1 be a go to defensive player or a solid all around player. Turkey Glue is a go to crunchtime offensive player who with his length can get off his own shot, but he definitely isn’t a #1.
I guess what I’m trying to say is whatever number you want to put as Love’s ceiling, I think he has the potential to be the best all-around player on a championship caliber team. Hopefully DK will make enough moves in the next 2 offseasons to give Kevin a chance to attempt to make that heppen.
Exactly my point
I guess what I’m trying to say is whatever number you want to put as Love’s ceiling, I think he has the potential to be the best all-around player on a championship caliber team.
This is exactly the point I was trying to make above. All the #1 or #3 type players stuff is all in the eye of the beholder to me. The one thing I will say is it would be nice to have a player we could consistently really on to take over games we’re struggling in, like CP3 did to us the other night in the second half. I think stats-wise and star appeal-wise Love is always going to be on the short end of the stick compared to LMA, but in terms of the impact on his team, over both the short and long term, Love is as important to us as any other guy out there. Again, I know it’s only been two games and we need a few more high quality pieces, but I am really jazzed with the combo of Love, Rambis, and whoever else gets trotted out there.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Re: LMA
It’s too early to put Love in LMA’s category for one simple reason: Aldridge was a Top-2 guy on a 54-win team. Love is a Top-2 guy on a high lottery team until we prove otherwise. I’m not saying he can’t reach that level, but he’s nowhere near it yet.
LMA
Took the 2nd most shots on a 54 win team. The Blazers had vastly superior depth, shooting, Brandon Roy, and Interior Defense (Pryzbilla and Oden). Even assuming Love isn’t LMA’s equal as a scorer. I would still take his skill set of LMA’s. The only line we always hear is “Love can’t defend”. Looking at the work of BBP this can be seen to not be the case.
by Jose Cordoba on Dec 6, 2009 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
If Love is that great already,
we will rally to make a run at a playoff spot. I really hope you’re right, because that’d be a blast to watch.
I don't see how that follows at all
Do you see Brandon Roy etc… on this team?
by ckb on Dec 6, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
This seems a stretch
Considering the team at 3-17 would probably need to get to about 45 wins which would mean a 42-20 run. Micheal Jordan in his prime probably couldn’t transform a team with .125 winning percentage to a team with a .700 winning percentage. 2010-2011 I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Playoff Push if Big Al gets healthy along with improving the wing talent.
Re: "couldn’t transform a team with .125 winning percentage to a team with a .700 winning percentage"
LeBron does.
That team is curently built for Lebron's skillset
Defensive specialists here and there, big guy who can shoot, PG who can pass and shoot, all-around contributors. That team is built completely differently than LA, but it doesn’t mean they are a 2-15 team without Lebron. LA is loaded with stars, but very few of them compliment each other (Gasol and Odom I would argue are the only two that did last year, and Fisher can compliment whomever he pleases). Gasol does most of the complimentary work with Kobe and Bynum, but neither of them look too good without Gasol positioning himself so well.
I was being a little sarcastic...
my main point is just that the Wolves top players shouldn’t be compared to the Blazers best, at this point. They are a much better team, as they show by beating us every time we match up. If we start winning at a decent rate, those comparisons will be more realistic — who knows, maybe that will be the case soon.
I could see a push for .500 this year
If Love is great this year, Jefferson plays at his best, Flynn figures stuff out very soon, Gomes keeps playing well, and Brewer gets some offensive ability.
Thats a lot.
by ckb on Dec 7, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
I think Love is the kind of player most championship caliber teams need
He has the intangibles that don’t always appear on the stat sheet. The outlet pass that doesn’t get counted as an assist, the first pass in the triangle that leads to the receiver getting an assist. Things like that. Also, the offensive rebounds may be worth 4-5 points per game, and also stop the other team from getting a couple easy buckets in transition.
Good Stuff
The problem is these terms #1 and #4 just seem to apply to the volume of one’s scoring. My comments in the game thread of Love becoming a more offensively gifted Wes Unseld makes him have quite a bit of potential. Dave Cowens would be another comp. Love lacks the Physical Gifts to be an upper-upper pantheon great whose presence guarnatees championship contention yearly. But depending on surronding talent- he could develop into the best player on a Championship team.
If Love can develop into a 35+% Volume Three Point Shooter he will join some rare company. The following is a list of players who grabbed 10+ Rebounds a game while shooting greater than 35% from three while attempting a minimum of 1 three a game:
Larry Bird (79-80, 84-85)
KG (99-00)
George McGinnis (74-75)
Chris Webber (96-97)
Troy Murphy (04-05, 08-09)
For those that think Love is closer to Murphy than any of the others, Love’s Rookie PER of 18.3 was half a point higher than Murphy’s career high of 17.8 his eighth year in the league.
Bird is a tough comp
Never a tremendous rebounder, Love definitely has the upper hand on Bird there. Shooting he will never be as deadly as Bird (hopefully I am wrong here…). KG is a better comp than I first thought when seeing his name. Cuz both of them play(ed) for MN. Just kidding, they are both tremendous rebounders, smart players who can pass, skills that made up for size (Love’s height, Garnett’s weight), and above average jump shooters for their position. Also, neither of them could ever be the first fiddle in terms of scoring enough to close out games, but both of them are better than said first fiddle because of everything else they bring to the game.
Interestingly enough, now that you mention it I think that if Love was 7’ tall he’d be the closest thing to KG outside of the Kid himself.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
If Love was 7 feet tall he'd be the best big man in the NBA
Then he really would be Tim Duncan. Maybe better, if this three point thing is going to be a consistent part of his game.
He’d also be Bull, but hey…
Anyone got any HGH sitting around?
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I've got some Vicodin
that I was hoping to sell to Favre.
Love Upside
Here’s an intresting question “Who ends up the best player from Last Year’s draft class?”
People automatically assume Derrick Rose. Although Rose is incredibly overrated. Rose has a PER below 15 on a 7-11 team. He’s also got a hideous plus/minus for the second year in a row.
OJ Mayo can’t seriously be considered in the discussion. Maybe Brook Lopez although he’s not a great rebounder nor what I would call a dominant player. Eric Gordon’s a great scorer who offers very little elsewhere. Russell Westbrook still can’t shoot but at least gets to the line and defends. Marc Gasol is a few years older than the others. This might be an intresting debate.
Love's new found three point range seriously ups his potential
Before I had him pegged as a David Lee type…energetic, good rebounder, efficient scorer by playing in the gaps as defenses keyed in on the stars around him.
Three point range on his shot though will help make up for the weakness that would traditionally limit him: lack of height and athleticism in the post. He can now force mismatches in the gaps rather than try to bull his way around in the paint against players who are bigger and stronger and can jump higher than him.
"New-found"?
The guy shot threes in college. His youtube full-court warm-ups are not unfamiliar, are they? Last year he spent lots of shootaround time moving around the arc with Cardinal, playing little shooting-contest games from three. His draftexpress profile listed “3-point range” as a strength. He spent this summer working on his outside shot.
We did know Kevin Love had a very high likelihood of being able to shoot from range. This isn’t a surprise to anyone who was paying attention. Well all talked about its potential for opening up his game last year.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
In terms of Love's three point shooting in 08/09...
I continue to go back to a quote from Randy Wittman earliy in the regular season that was something along the lines of “We’ve got players attempting 3 pointers that can’t even make baskets from 2 feet out”. It was a thinly veiled snipe at Kevin Love, and if you look at his pre-season 3 point attempts and compare it to his regular season 3 point attempts…you’ll see that he essentially lost all confidence in the shot.
Let me say for the 1000th time…THANK GOD we no longer have Randy Wittman here.
My personal favorite with that
is the assumption that the closer in the better you should be. For many players, their 3pt shot is taken with set feet and a wide open look, whereas the inside shot gets off in less space and is more likely to be contested.
While most players % increases the closer they are…it is definitely not a gimme.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 7, 2009 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
I Love Wittman
It’s especially ridiculous considering Love’s main issue with close shots was the fact that they kept getting blocked, something that clearly wouldn’t happen from 3 point rage.
One would hope not
I mean a 6’9 3 point shooter shouldn’t have that many shots blocked. That would just be sad.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 7, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
Whenever a big shoots 3s
I always wonder how that affects their rebounding.
only their offensive rebounding
but Big Al should also be in the paint when Love shoots. So minimal team impact. The + of having a matchup problem and forcing your opponent to stretch the floor is more than enough to take that route.
It also opens up the lane for slashing by Flynn and an athletic wing to be named later.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 7, 2009 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
a Love comparison
I feel Love is a pleasure to watch because he incorporates so many different aspects of the game, but as to his shooting effectiveness I see some parallels with the old Celtics center Dave Cowens. Cowens was a great player, albeit undersized for his position. He would take his opponent away from the basket, neutralizing any height advantage and go from there. He was also a tremendous hustle player and another one who made others better. The NBA game is a bit different today, but a good player is still a good player.
by ogishkemuncie on Dec 7, 2009 11:09 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah,
’cause so many great three-point shooters start as fantastic post-up threats and work their way out.
Randy Wittman motivated himself into motion and right out the door.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
It may depend on how best is defined...
…If talent only, maybe Love is passed by a few others. But value for pick it may be a lock on Lopez and Love. Even if Love and Mayo are looked at equally ten years from now, the Wolves end up the winner by getting out of the bad contracts.
If by best, we mean who is the most sheerly talented...
Then it’s probably Anthony Randolph, to be honest. And I think if he can get out of Golden State and to a team that will give him consistent minutes to develop with, he’ll start producing like it too.
Fair Enough
I just wanted to comment on Derrick Rose.
Ankle injury? He had a great year last year and has tons of potential. Don’t sell him short based on a slow start.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Uh-No
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/04/28/an-average-rose/
His TS% or Plus/Minus these last two years are nothing to write home about either.
He might have a ton of potential but he’s not a Great NBA player at this point in time.
by Jose Cordoba on Dec 6, 2009 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
I'd agree that he is overrated
but his potential turned into production during the finals last year. Tough to argue with what he did to Rondo.
Obviously he seems to be having a rough go of it this year, but I would suspect that this will change.
How is Rondo overrated?
He seems to be a solid pg that shoots at a terrible ft%.
by Breaking Ankles on Dec 7, 2009 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
I think that the overrating comes from C's fans
who put him as one of the top 2 or 3 pgs in the game. Rondo is really good, but if he were the best player on your team, I think there’d be a host of trouble. Though if he ever becomes an average shot from more than 10 feet out, yikes.
He is obviously helped
by his allstar cast, but he is really a good player. He is terrible from range, but he has tremendous handles and his hands are just huge. He has that really annoying layup where it looks like he is passing the ball behind his back, but somehow he can still hold on to it and bring it back up where the only way someone could stop it would be to smack his hand. Definitely has skills (he also lit Rose up last year, but he is a much better defender than Rose).
#4 vs #1
I look at this as a player’s ability to create offense. I really do agree that Jefferson is a #2, mainly because Al doesn’t make other players better yet. He has shown some flashes this last week, but I am not entirely sure that he will be able to average 4+ assists per game. A #1 needs to make other players around him better. Love could potentially be a #1 if he were able to develop the post moves that Al has, because his vision is outstanding. I think Love is more of a #3 right now than a #4 because he has developed a shot all the way out to the 3 point line, but Love won’t be able to create for himself until he refines his post game. I am also averse to having a #1 option that plays in the post. It is so easy to double down and force other players to beat you. If Love could develop a dream shake that KG and Olajuwon, he would nearly be unstoppable.
I was thinking Evan Turner could be a #1 option with his excellent midrange game, his ability to attack the rim, draw contact, and finish, and his passing ability. He needs to develop as a shooter, but he looks like he has solid form and has a lot of lift in, is 6’7", and has close to a 7’ wingspan so he will be able to get it off over many guards. Defensively he looks solid. I know he plays in a matchup zone, but anyone that he defends at the top of the key never gets by him, so it leads me to believe that he has great lateral quickness and will be a solid defender in the league. Unfortunately now I am not sure what is going to happen with him. Reports say that he will be out 8 weeks, so that puts him at the February 6th and hopefully he will return to form and we will still be able to get a pick where we can draft him.
If we got the #1 pick, we would absolutely have to take John Wall, but you have to ask the question, “Is there a contending team with a PG as the #1 option?” There isn’t, so I would be very tempted to move him to SG because of his physical traits and play him more of a Dwayne Wade role.
I can’t wait for the offseason. We have 3 solid starters. Our draft pick that could bring us a #1 player, two more draft picks that will bring us solid depth, cap space that could bring us two more starters, and two European players that are valued very highly. Ideally I would have Rubio over here and move Flynn because I think a pass first PG is the ideal way to go if/when we have a #1.
What I would really wonder about
Is the possibilties of a Rubio/Wall back-court. You’d have perhaps the greatest passer in the world along with someone who could become an elite player in Iso Situations. Wall would probably have to improve some as a shooter- but this has potential to develop into one of the greatest backcourts ever assembled. Think of a Jason Kidd/Dwyane Wade pairing?
And using that Jason Kidd comparison
It’s not outlandish to think that Rubio could continue to develop an ugly-but-effective spot up three point shot, based on his ability to do so in the admittedly small sample size of his last season in Europe. Add an SF who would finish, play aggressive D, and hit open 3s (think Trevor Ariza in LA), and that backcourt would be scary on both sides of the ball.
Wall has beautiful form on his jump shot
so if he can become more consistent with it, he will be deadly. No other words to describe. And then if he could get a little smarter so his brain could keep up with his body and even possibly add some better hesitation moves…. he would become an annual top 3 candidiate for MVP.
Could work well with the Triangle
The passing ability of Rubio, Love, and Wall could be dynamic – especially if Love does become a decent outside shooter. These three and Al inside could be unstoppable offensively.
Simple
This isn’t rocket science, and it was weird how people were hitting the panic button a week or two ago, when the Wolves were losing so badly with 80% Jefferson and no Kevin Love. We’ve got Love back, and Jefferson will slowly work back to being his old self.
Last year, when Big Al went down, we had won 11 of our last 20 games. Immediately after his injury, we went on a 1-12 stretch. 3 of our 7 wins without Big Al (7-25 record) came against lottery teams in the heart of tanking season. 2 came against playoff teams, neither of which as good as this year’s Denver Nuggets (Miami and Utah). Given how easy it is for bad teams to win some games in the last third of the NBA season, it was a pathetic performance that wasn’t worth watching.
I thought it was pretty noticeable that Jefferson’s 23.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.7 blocks were crucial to the team’s chances at success. When we get that guy back, he and this improved Kevin Love should help us be an even-more competitive team.
i think it...
…was more of an anger button. there was a ridiculous lack of effort and it should have never been that bad.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Yeah..
and I’m more directing at the old comments that were basically calling out David Kahn, and his moves, as if they had much at all to do with the terrible start. Jefferson just got cleared to play before the season started. Nowhere near 100%. Then Love goes down with a broken hand. It wasn’t going to be pretty — Jefferson is slowly improving and Love is looking a lot better than last year. Gomes’ recent play can’t be understated either — it remains to be seen if he can play like this on a consistent basis. But at the same time, Jefferson had a miserable time getting his jump-hook to fall last night (until crunchtime) and we still beat a playoff team. That’s a very good sign.
But Gomes went 9-10. That won't happen often, if ever again. I think the two extremes cancelled each other out.
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 6, 2009 5:54 PM CST up reply actions
My question is when does Gomes go back into the woodwork again
Throughout his career he’s had a few other nice stretches of ball, only to go back to being a wallflower again. You look at his stats over the years and they regress to a boringly consistent run of mediocrity. OK 3-pt shooting but at low volume; OK 2-pt shooting but not enough FTA’s; OK rebounding but never dominant; OK defense but not lockdown. He’s had a couple of head turning games lately, but I don’t trust it. And I don’t know if I’ll trust it even if it continues. 27-year old pros that have big years after years of mediocrity typically regress back to their norm. I don’t trust what I’m seeing. Sell high!
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 6, 2009 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
In fairness...
Gomes’ role changes a lot, with these injuries we’ve had to Brewer, Jefferson and Love. I think he can be relied upon to give a consistent performance as a role player if there is decent talent around him. He’s very inconsistent when he needs to start creating his own offense.
Gomes is effective
Gomes is the player who seems to have to fill the gaps created when other players fail at their roles. That’s why he varies from game to game. He is still the best barometer of our success, I feel. He is a very valuable component.
by ogishkemuncie on Dec 7, 2009 11:00 PM CST up reply actions
when we traded for K-Love
I compared it to when the Twins traded A.J… I thought it was that good of a trade and it appears to be. Love was ridiculous last night and he spent large chunks of time on the bench, so we are only going to get better as he gets in the game more. What’s even better is OJ might (just hoping with my fingers and toes crossed) be forcing Gay out of Memphis and how sweet would he look in a Wolves uniform? That trade just keeps getting better and better.
Most importantly I don’t have to look at Marko and try to figure out how someone that looks like a fish and can’t play basketball can get a girl as hot as his… I sleep better at night since that trade
i already..
…have the post written giving oj mayo an honorary wolves mvp if he forces gay out of memphis. love and gay for mayo is not something memphis wants to end up on the wrong side of.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
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Positivity for Al
It’s already starting. The more we praise Love, the less we’re going to think of Big Al. And it’s fine to some extent, but lest we get carried away, consider the plight of teams like the Chicago Bulls or the Charlotte Bobcats. Even with a fair amount of talent along the wing, they are among the league’s worst in offensive efficiency because they can’t get any reliable offense from their big men. Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas/Taj Gibson can be positive impact players individually, but put them in the same offense and they kill you.
I personally don’t want to be one of those teams where neither starting big man can get you offense. It’s counter-intuitive, but I almost think shot volume is more crucial than scoring efficiency here. Two guys who can give you 10-12 points each on .600 TS% would seem nice, but that still leaves an absurdly high number of possessions for your wings to use up. For a team like Minnesota, with no LeBron, Wade, or Carmello on the horizon, I think we need Big Al. As one of only 6 NBA centers averaging more than 10 FGA per game, he’s a bit of a rare commodity. Most NBA rosters get the bulk of their post offense from the power forward position. For a unique player such as Kevin Love, who does so much for this team but can only really create offense as the defense gives it to him, and uniquely talented offensive center like Big Al is just as important to the overall success of the team.
And I should clarify:
10 FGA per game was an arbitrary cut-off. Al is actually at 14.8. Among centers getting at least 30 minutes per game, he is 3rd in FGA/game and 2nd in usage rate. His ability to create offense as a center is really quite rare.
Thanks
That does help put even injured Al in some perspective.
Never thought of it that way
But Chicago and Charlotte are good examples.
I’ve always liked Al and wanted him to develop some defense. I’ve said it before, but if he could develop that defense while working on passing and still maintain his offensive numbers (and even improve on efficiency with lower FGA), all while keeping his TO% as low as he has the last couple years, he would be beyond special.
His stats would be
but their styles are very different. Duncan uses fundamentals to get his shot off, Jefferson uses a series of…. stuff…. His passing right now is better than I expected, but it has definitely gone down over the course of the year. Which sucks. On the flip side, his turnovers have gone up higher than his past couple years (and this is not even a cause of the passing, its those damn traveling calls he keeps getting). Unfortunately his TS% and rebounding are at an all-time low for his career. Ouch. Although this is also the first time that his defensive win shares are outpacing his offensive win shares by 6fold.
How has his passing gone down?
His passing right now is better than I expected, but it has definitely gone down over the course of the year. Which sucks.
Maybe you’re perceiving his passing to decline over the season, but do you see that in tangible ways?
Over his career Al Jefferson’s assist % number has increased. He’s been quite consistent year-on-year in various other ways; his block % number, for example, was basically 3.4 until he played without lift this season. Most of those numbers, like the blocks, are down somewhat for this early season with the knee and the new system…. But his assist percentages:
04-05: 3.9
05-06: 5.0
06-07: 7.2
07-08: 7.5
08-09: 8.8
09-10: 11.9 so far
He’s worked at it, he really has.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
It's tough to compare his
career trend to how he has done this year…
And yes I do see that in tangible ways. His TS% at the beginning of this year was up near 15 (after about 5-10 games). Since then, it has dropped off to 11.9. I’d say that this is a tangible way to measure his trend… this year.
There have been a couple of games where
Al was forcing it and I am guessing that was where his assist rate took some dips. If Ellington and Love continue to hit shots it will go back up in a hurry.
Al will toss it out until the defense stops cheating on him and then get easy buckets one on one. Just a guess on my part. Al will always take a lot of shots, but he will get better at picking and choosing. That skill alone will make him a much better player.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 8, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions
This is why I like the idea of adding a true banging defensive big who can play 24ish minutes per game. Someone like Pryz, or more realistically, Brendan Haywood, who I believe is a UFA this year, would be a great fit. You’d have great flexibility with your rotations and the ability to have a scoring/playing big on the court at all times.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Yep
Rather than send out one of Al and Love because they’ll never be great together defensively, I’d prefer us to move forward with the two of them and add a third big man to them. Ideally he wouldn’t require more than MLE money, and could solve the issues presented by certain opposing front lines.
Brendan Haywood is a good one. Hadn’t thought of him. I’ve been stuck on Marcin Gortat. Here’s the most recent, best trade scenario to bring him here: http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=964995&p=21514360#p21514360
Yes, good points
Al puts tremendous pressure on a defense. He’s inevitably doubled on most possessions in the low block. We saw last season how our squad was better on both sides of the ball when he was in vs. out of the game (and keep in mind Love was coming off the bench, often backing up Jefferson last season!). He is not a #1 player, but at full strength and with talent around him, I think we will learn to appreciate him more. That being said, he is overmatched against a lot of the league’s top Centers. We really do need an Aldrich/Haywood/Pekovic(?) backing him up for significant minutes and allowing him to play some 4 too.
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 6, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
Big Al is undervalued by some here, but would not be elsewhere. He has his flaws, certainly. I feel he is setting up further from the basket this year, outside of his comfort zone. That is one reason for his traveling calls, turnovers, etc. Love is Mr. Intangible and helps Al be Al.
by ogishkemuncie on Dec 7, 2009 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
Partly the traveling calls are a new ref thing
They’ve decided to call that one differently, and even held a little press meeting to explain it.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Is Jefferson going to be Hassell?
With a rule change the year after his new contract reducing the effectiveness of his greatest strength? Let’s hope he can adjust his game better than Hassell did.
by Cedarpenguin on Dec 8, 2009 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
I think Love is our x-factor player
Not the best, but the most important, if that makes any sense.
Think of it like how Ginobili is the key player for the Spurs even though Duncan is the best.
Oh, and I also want to bring up some points on Corey and Jonny
I was at the game last night, and Flynn looked fantastic. He controlled the offense without dominating the ball, and it looks like he’s getting more comfortable in that role. He even started to show some of his swagger, especially after his big third quarter dunk.
Corey basically looked like the player he appeared to be in preseason…having Love back and being out there in a lineup that can facilitate more fastbreak opportunities is going to do wonders for him. Because he often keys the defense at the top of the circle, he’s usually the first to run out on the break. He also looked a lot more solid in his shot selection, only taking jumpers when he was coming off screens and had time to get some space from his defender and set his feet.
And of course Wayne Ellington
He took over in the fourth. He just came in and was like “**** it, Ima shoot now”
impressive
I was most impressed with Ellington’s quick decisive passes, especially off the dribble into the post.
Ellington
is a sneaky good all-around player. He seems to show a game that is quite refined. Like SnP said in his write-up, he is able to blend seamlessly into the team (OK, it helps when his shot is falling!). But he does some things better than I had expected, such as defense and getting out on the break.
by Rascal Flatts on Dec 6, 2009 6:12 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah...
he’s just a really good basketball player, who doesn’t have quite enough size or quickness to dominate NBA games. It’s been clear since his freshman year at UNC, though, that he’s a smooth player with a future in the pros. This newfound ball movement with Love back in the lineup might help Ellington find more open looks.
Particularly defensively
Ellington’s main questions were about defense. He didn’t have a great reputation in college. While you could project him as a well-rounded offensive contributor once the rookie film was off his eyes, there was a question about whether he’d be torched on the other end of the floor.
We may well see other teams try to test him more, now. He’s done okay so far though.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Even if the Duke is never that great defensively
It’s nice to have a guard on the bench who can just come in and shoot, while playing heady on the offensive end. He’s not a sieve or anything defensively, is he?
I posted a few days ago that Loves return
would improve the team in two ways.
One was that one or two non-rotation players would again be on the bench rather than playing 20 MPG.
The other was that Love would increase the teams effort by getting the transition game going and also keeping games more competitive, both of which encourage hustle.
I agree with Pop, that is a different TEAM with Love back. His rebounding skills and outlet passing raise everyone’s energy level and confidence. For most of the season, when we played one of the better teams, they quickly learned to go after every board on the offensive end. Teams could keep shooting until they scored. Not any more.
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