Your weekly Rubio
by biggity2bit on Dec 8, 2009 11:22 AM CST
77 comments
Saw a thing about Rubio in the paper recently and got to wondering how our Golden Boy is doing. Using Hollinger's euro-transfer formula (all per minute: scoring -25%, reb +18%, ast +31%, fg% -12%), Rubio numbers suggest that he is shaping up to be something of a Jason Kidd clone.
4.9 pts/gm, 4.7 ast/gm, 2.4 reb/gm, 1.9 stl/gm
Shooting: (.467 eFG overall)
.432 on 2's on 2.2 attempts/game
.348 on 3's on 1.4 attempts/game
.875 on ft's on 1.9 attempts/game
Adjusting those numbers using Hollinger's formula and displaying them per/36 minute production yields:
6.9 pts/36 min, 11.5 ast/36 min, 5.2 reb/36 min, and 2.7 stl/36 min, .411 eFG (probably not precise-this is simply the 12% worse value Hollinger uses on fg% applied to eFG).
This makes me wonder if Rubio might not become the proto-typical triangle PG if he comes here. He excels at passing, court vision, spacing, and seems to have an intuitive feel for getting teammates in the right spots and hitting them with a pass. Furthermore, the triangle would really help mitigate his weaknesses: athleticism in driving to the hoop and his poor shooting numbers, and his iso offense game. If the triangle is about spacing and hitting guys who are cutting and moving, and taking the open shot, few would surpass Rubio as a facilitator. Add in his superior size (length) and anticipation instincts and he could flourish in this system.
So my next question becomes (assuming this assessment of Rubio is more or less correct)-do the Wolves move forward banking on Rubio as their PG or one of the Sessions/Flynn? I think this is important because it influences the draft/FA strategy. If Rubio is your guy, then you need to surround him with shooters, scorers, and athletic guys who can get to the basket. In other words, a guy like Gay who's primarily a scorer might be valued a little more because he'll help offset the lack of scoring from Rubio. On the other side, if Flynn/Sessions is your guy, perhaps you look for a little more of an efficient two-way guy (a Turner or Ronnie Brewer type). Then again, on this team, perhaps talent is talent no matter the position, so simply get the BPA in the draft and the best value on the FA market.
Here's Pekovic's numbers, for what it's worth:
In 12 games (20.8 min/game) this season:
14.6 pts/gm, .75 ast/gm, 4 reb/gm, .67 blk/gm
Shooting: (.674 eFG overall)
.674 on 2's on 7.2 attempts/game
.000 on 3's on 0 attempts/game
.686 on ft's on 7.2 attempts/game
Adjusting those numbers using Hollinger's formula and displaying them per/36 minute production yields:
19 pts/36 min, 1.7 ast/36 min, 8.2 reb/36 min, and .72 blk/36 min, .593 eFG (probably not precise-this is simply the 12% worse value Hollinger uses on fg% applied to eFG).
Looks pretty good, eh?
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Pekovic is a bull offensively
We really do fail to see past his Euroleague time on the court. In that setting he’s a dominant scorer down low, but he’s still only getting 20 minutes a night.
He’s basically redundant to Al Jefferson as lots of us have suggested since that draft night, but we need to make something of this asset.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
I agree
Even if it means bringing him over here and showcasing him in the NBA for a bit even though we already have Al. Or if it might look like it’ll take a lot to get him over, let’s trade him sooner rather than later before everyone sours on him.
Here’s my question, though: if you could get 80% of Al’s production (points and rebounds) with the same level of defense at 50-75% of the cost of Al’s contract, do you trade Al?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Eee, that's tough
The thing about Al is that he’s currently the one player the wolves have that other teams have to stop. And he’s still young. And he hasn’t had consistent coaching yet. This will only get tougher if the Wolves end up with Favors. I suppose it would depend on what came back for Al, but I’d lean towards keeping him.
Probably not with the numbers you suggest
Although it depends on what the Wolves get back in a trade for AL. While saving $5 mil a year would be nice for Taylor and Co., saving money by avoiding bad contracts for marginal players is far more important. Very good players making $8-15 mil a year usually don’t hurt a team’s overall flexibility. Blount, Marko, etc are what need to be avoided. The flip side is $15+ mil plus players who are not Superstars, AL is not in this category either.
I'm not sure how Rubio's scoring will go here
And again, when you see clips of Rubio it’s so obvious that the way the game is played differs there. It’s not just that assists in Euroleague play are much harder to come by, it’s to do with coaching and styles of play.
Barca is loaded. What the coaches ask Rubio to do there is set people up, almost exclusively. And it’s clear in clips or entire games that you watch: other teams respect him as a scorer. He breaks down defenses heading to the hoop, and hands off to people on the weak side or trailing, all the time. If defenses didn’t respect the kid, they’d just lay off. They don’t; they have all kinds of trouble with him, and bring second defenders.
That comparison to Kidd holds up both to the outlines of Rubio’s stats and to the proverbial eye test. Even his sorta-set shot from three is similar. I imagine we can expect similar scoring numbers, in the NBA context, but it’s hard to filter out the setting. One thing for sure though: He looks as good as or better than Kidd did in college, and against tougher competition with lots more legitimate “bigs” both with and against him.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Glad to hear the Kidd comp works
Kidd was the only stellar PG with high assist/poor shooting or scoring numbers I could think of. They both strike me as smart players who are also very crafty on defense. I also wonder if Rubio’s offensive shooting ceiling is that of a Ryan Gomes type in that he’ll be able to hit some open shots for you but will really struggle if you ask him to carry the team. There’s no reason in my mind that in 3 years Rubio will have games where he shoots 6-7 for 15 points and other games where he’ll shoot 1-8 for 2 points.
Looking up Kidd’s career and stats I think the two years he played with Kevin Johnson in Phoenix are pretty intriguing. Both performed at a pretty high level which gives me hope that Rubio’s Kidd (taller facilitator) could still mesh with Flynn’s KJ (smaller but more offensively gifted). I know we’ve been through the two PG thing more than enough on this site, but the only thing I’ll add now about it is that I can’t wait for Rubio to get over here and play some games in the NBA. I just think that he’s going to be something completely different in this league, and that we won’t really know if the 2 PG thing will work until we actually see him in Rambis’ system. He really is a unique player.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Also interesting
and what we have discussed: Wall and Rubio. I would much much much rather have that combo on the floor than Rubio and Flynn. And not just in terms of talent.
I can envision:
A Rubio-Wall starting backcourt, with Flynn coming off the bench in an offensive sparkplug role, and eventually as a perennial sixth man of the year contender.
May only work for a couple years until Flynn leaves to become a starter somewhere, but wouldn’t that be fun to watch?
Rubio-Wall
that’s the sort of scenario that would make fans crazy about the Wolves. I’m not even sure how well those two would mesh together as players, but the star power and excitement alone would be worth a lot of sold-out arenas.
Given the incredibly large number of “good young point guards” in league right now, a guy like Flynn might not be able to just bolt for a starting job somewhere else. The bar is being set higher than it was a few years back.
please don't ever write that again
I may have a heart attack. :)
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 8, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions
How do you feel about Rudy Gay at the 3 next to those 2 on the break?
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
its a good thing that Rubio doesn't shoot much
because those other two could jack up shots. Anyteam that doesn’t have stellar perimeter D or fantastic interior shot blocking would get lit up.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 8, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
The team in my head since the draft...
…has been:
1- Rubio/Flynn
2- Turner/Flynn/Brewer
3- Gay/Brewer/Gomes
4- Love/Aldrich/Hollins
5- Jefferson/Aldrich/Hollins
But I would happily throw it all overboard for this:
1- Rubio/bag-o-donuts
2- Wall/Bag-o-donuts
3- Gay/Bag-o-donuts
4- Love/ Bag-o-donuts
5- Jefferson/Bag-o-donuts
I have a pro bag-o-donuts agenda at this point. Rubio/Wall would be insane. The Big Gay Rubio Love Wall would be even better. Bring me the Big Gay Rubio Love Wall!!!
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
These lineups and the original post here
are why I keep coming back to Aldrich. I think the Kahn plan is to spend at least two, if not three seasons figuring out who the future PG is on this team. Aldrich fits either Flynn or Rubio.
If they get the #1 pick (Doubt It), it creates some extra questions for the front office to address, but as they say: That’s the kind of problem you like having to deal with.
If they pick #2 – #5, the choice is Aldrich, while perhaps trading down a couple spots to get even more assets. Then one of the other two first rounders is used for a wing player, and the other is moved into a later year again. This sets up the summer of 2011 as the time when the pieces are finalized.
If they get the #1, they trade the #1 for an established wing player. Of course it could also be used to go after Chris Paul.
Disagree slightly
If the pick is 1-4, don’t go Aldrich. 5 and after I guess I could live with. Do not want Aldrich over Turner or Wesley at this point.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Aldrich at #2?
I don’t know that much about the guy, but sounds like his offensive upside has limits. Andris Beidrins as a possible comparison?
I’d much rather have Evan Turner with a top 5, non#1 pick, than Aldrich.
Aldrich sounds like a perfect guy to manuever for later in the lottery. We’ve got several assets to do so including Pekovic who could be just as effective in the NBA although in a different role (more offense/less defense).
If the Wolves offseason is Wall or Turner, Aldrich and Rudy Gay, I’d be thrilled.
no way should aldrich be top 5
Top 15 without a doubt. Top 10 picks are aimed at trying to get a star. in a weak draft it would be top 5 picks. Everything after that is for solid starters. Aldrich will be a solid starter, but will never be a star. No way the wolves first pick is used to grab Aldrich. There are just too many explosive potential star talents that will be in this draft to consider it based upon Kahn’s draft mantra of going after higher ceiling/lower floor players (as compared to higher floor/lower ceiling players in the McHale era).
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 9, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
There is unfortunately a premium for height
at some point the Wolves need more, this might be the best opportunity. While Aldrich may not have All-Star upside, he is probably a ten year NBA starter. Sometimes it is worth giving up some upside for a more sure thing kind of player (see Marbury/Allen).
Part of my theory is that with all the assets the Wolves have, they really should be able to get Aldrich and another top-5 player if they think someone is worth the cost.
You made me think (shame on you!)
If we ended up with number 1, wouldn’t Sacramento be awfully envious of that pick? Couldn’t we fleece them for whatever pick they have plus something else? Couldn’t that something else be turned plus the Charlotte pick be turned in to a pick just high enough to get Aldrich? Then we end up with Turner (around 4 or 5, I assume his draft stock won’t rise or fall too much with the injury) and Aldrich (around 8ish?).
Could work.
But I think I would rather have Wall than Turner and Aldrich. We all know that superstars are mandatory. John Wall is going to be a superstar.
If the Wolves land the #1 pick, it might be the only chance they ever get to acquire that kind of player. You have to do it, and use the rest of the point guards to fill in the cracks on the wings, in my opinion.
I love Evan Turner as much as the next, but if Wall keeps up his pace and impresses as much as expected during workouts, you CAN’T pass up on a potential superstar.
How abou this: We get #1 and draft Wall. Evan Turner’s injury keeps him mid lottery and we use other means to secure a pick to get him as well.
Wall and Turner would fix our wing problem maybe?
My ideal team is
Trade Rubio for a Turner
Trade Jefferson for Noah
Trade Flynn, Pekovic, and ?? for Granger
C Noah/Greg Monroe (either CHA or Utah pick)
PF Love/??
SF Granger/Brewer
SG Turner/Ellington
PG Wall/Sessions
How do we...
get both Turner and Aldrich?
Trading some combo of Sessions, Pekovic and our 2 other picks?
If we can do it…YES!
I'd say
It depends on where Aldrich goes and who drafts him. He’ll only be gettable if our assets match up with their need areas—either they need to offload a bad contract, or Pek would be a better fit, or they need a young PG, etc.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Ah crap
just answered this above before you really asked it.
Basically, trade #1 to Sac for their pick and something else that with the Utah or Charlotte pick will net us around 8.
My realistically ideal draft next year would be Turner/Aldrich/Henry
Wall's height makes that work a lot better that with Flynn
His stack of off-court ‘situations’ is also taller than Jonny’s, alas.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Even so
Sounds like John Wall will be the next Allen Iverson in terms of putting people’s butts in the seats. Combine him with Rubio and Wolves attendance will increase 2000-3000 people a game regardless of winning. Perhaps more importantly, they become a lot more inviting to corporations who want to take clients to a game. Imagine it-John Wall and Ricky Rubio representing your starting backcourt three years after Marko Jaric and Randy Foye were your starters.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
I need to go sit somewhere and breathe....
Imagine it-John Wall and Ricky Rubio representing your starting backcourt three years after Marko Jaric and Randy Foye were your starters.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
NOOOOO!!!
This team has enough assets, they don’t need to bring in an Iverson type with distractions to win. They have the ability to put together a Spurs or Jazz (circa Stockton/Malone) type of team, that should be the goal. Fans will fill Target Center in either scenario.
Didn't mean to imply
That he would be like Iverson the person (although I don’t know that much about Wall to be honest). Rather that Iverson was the kind of player who people would buy tickets to see, like Randy Moss or AP and Percy Harvin.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
I don't think he needs to be protected as a scorer, but we should make a couple roster moves still
He’s a solid 3tp shooter, so in the triangle where his scoring role will be primarily to fade to the corners and hit threes, he should be ok.
We’re going to need more athletes to run with him though, especially in the frontcourt. And three point shooters as well. The roster should be built somewhat like the team the Hornets or Mavs have built.
With or without him,
those acquisitions are going to happen. They’re very likely to happen this coming offseason, come to that.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Too early still
It’s still too early to make player personnel decisions based on Rubio. No matter who our PG is, we need need more skill on the wings, whether it’s outside snipers or super athletic slashers.
One encouraging sign of Rubio’s maturation as a PG is his career best Asst/TO ratio this year.
Need shooters either way
I think no matter if Rubio/Sessions/Flynn are guards on this roster, you’d still need shooters. Flynn seems to drive only to score, but there’s no reasons to think that a drive and kick game couldn’t develop with him and Rubio as a drive and dish alternate w/Sessions able to both (although his 4 foot chest passess to a triple teamed Ryan Hollins should probably be scrubbed from the repertoire).
Another thing about Rubio
Hopefully this will improve, but the Wolves telegraph far too many of their passes this year. Seeing how CP3 and Deron Williams were so effective in dishing without telegraphing against us has really made me appreciate that ability a whole lot more. This is another feature of Rubio’s game that could easily lead to an 8 point swing per game (combined more baskets made close in for us and fewer steals and fast break points for the other team), most likely helping him become a great +/- guy despite pedestrian scoring numbers.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Rubio is incredibly hard to read that way
He releases passes from basically any point in his dribble, has the whole range of no-look moves…. Getting away from fit here and projecting his eventual ceiling and so on, the kid is really fun to watch.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
wiew from barcelona
being a barça fan i’ve seen ricky play many times (not live)
he’s playng this season in much better team than last season (wth all the respect for Joventut). The roster is deep and talented (for sure one of the top 4 in euorpe).. is difucult to compare because here the style of game is diferenent and more unselfish but IMO the team is nba level (not play off level, of course).
playng two seasons in this team RR is goning to play A LOT of big games and cluch time. I rallty think this is going to be very good for ricky, for barça and finally….for the t-wolwes!!
hes improving his shoting, hes getting stronger
… and… don’t forget it…hes a impresive steal machine
my best wishes for the wholves
(sorry for my english… it’s just travelling english)
Gracias..
…and there is no need to apologize for being able to write in a 2nd language ;) Thanks for the input.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Thank you!
Yes, we all should remember this is a Defensive Player of the Year we’re talking about.
(Again: The Jason Kidd comparison.)
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Very cool to hear from Barcelona!
Thanks for the scouting report. Your English is much better than my Spanish.
Let us know if you hear/read anything interesting, especially as it relates to Ricky’s future plans.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
The young Minnesota girls...
…are already eyeing Ricky as the next Minnesota sports star to lust after, as Joe Mauer will either go play somewhere else or is simply getting to old. They too would appreciate updates about Ricky’s future plans…for Mrs. Ricky.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
that is a perfect name..
…for a twins blog.
btw: he’s a player for the minnesota twins, a baseball team. he’s the current league mvp and probably one of the greatest catchers of all time. he’s also a home town hero from st paul.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Maybe
“Sorry…I have no idea who is Joe Mauer” could replace the Hoopus “Viagra” tagline for a day, because it really would make the perfect name for a blog.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
done..
…although it was a close call between that and a Big Gay Rubio Love Wall.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I prefer an homage to Field of Dreams
If we improve it, fans will come.
Hey SNP
While we are back on the Rubio issue, do you have the ability to ask someone in the know if Rubio’s contract can be bought out this summer. Not necessarily as written in the current contract, but could a buyout be renegotiated if the stars aligned correctly?
I just keep thinking that if Flynn has a so-so year and Rubio has a good year in Europe, both sides will really want to see Rubio in Minny next season, especially with the CBA about to undergo significant changes.
I'm pretty sure it has a buyout after every year
…but I’ll double check. If I forget to post it, give me a reminder in a few days.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
No, he doesn't
His first player option is after 2 years, after which he has an option every year.
In some respects that suits us I think. Having Rubio either as a player or a trade asset at 20 is better than having to do the same thing at 19. Additionally if we do land Wall, we aren’t trying to move two PG’s in the one offseason. I assume Sessions is jettisoned fairly quickly in that scenario.
Judd: "...I've since watched some Steven Seagal movies and I realise that pressure points are no laughing matter.".
right..
…it is not. i was wrong with the first take.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
FC Barcelona payed a lot of money for him...
no wey they let him go after just one season
the contract is clear and the buy out goes dawn after the 2nd season…
I think everybody realized here what he’s going to to go to wolves in two years
Big Gay Rubio Love Wall
is pretty awesome too. Perhaps next week.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
cool
what about the copy rights? ;)
(here in spain baseball don’t have much fan base and no pro league… other team sports like handball, waterpolo, voleyball, indoor soccer…. has more adepts)
we'll send you..
…an imaginary check from our imaginary earnings ;)
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
heard he was Injured
got stepped on the hip playing against Granada beginning of first quarter but from his tweet said he was all right just waiting for swelling to go down or something like that
As far as the statistical analysis goes
with the -12% FG rate. I think Hollinger just takes an average of the players who have come here. Obviously guards will go down less and bigs will go down more, and even then you could look at how they get their points (the more inside shots they take the more it will go down) and who they get their points against. So I’d guess Rubio will be pretty close to where he is now… or would be if it wasn’t still two years away, and Pekovic will be around .515. Just a guess, but hopefully it makes sense.
I see rubio in that
12 point, 8+ assists and 2 steals category when he comes over.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 8, 2009 2:58 PM CST reply actions
Me too
I can see him as a solid double double guy—around 10-12 points, 9-10 assists, and a couple burglaries each game.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Stat people will always undervalue a PG
in the triangle because of the ball movement. The ball ends up in the hands of the bigs a lot to make decisions (or at least in our version). So if they make a pass, they get the assist, or if they go to score there is too much time delay and the basket is unassisted.
Rubio will get a lot of his assists on modified fast breaks where both teams are almost back or halfway there and he throws some pass that noone is expecting for an easy bucket. That plus a 3 or two a game is all you really need.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 8, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
In the right system I’d expect double digit assist #‘s. Something along the lines of a prime kid stat line with a huge drop off in rebounds wouldn’t surprise me, like 13/11/4.5/2 steals per game if he’s in a system that lets him do his thing.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
More than Wall
I think Rubio would benefit from a big who can finish above the rim. Or at least, Rubio having a big who could finish would be fun to watch. Half that guy’s highlights are him throwing underhanded alley-oops. Who can really jam the hell out of the ball that’s on the team now? Hollins? That’s why I’d love to see someone like Favors or Craig Brackens or Gay on the team.
The wovles have the same needs with or without Rubio
Usually, I would insist that the wolves should wait until they have signed a player before basing their personal decisions around his abilities, but, in this case, it probably won’t hurt for them to act as if Rubio will definitely be on the team in two or three years. Basically, the wolves need wing players and a third big man, preferably a big man who is actually big by NBA standards. At this point, it would be nice just to have average quality wing players. In the long run it would be nice to have a special wing player that can shoot, play defense, draw FTAs and create shots for other players.
I suppose Rubio’s height would allow us to play a combo guard with him if we have the chance to draft or sign a very talented combo guard that we want to start.(John Wall doesn’t sound like a combo guard though) Maybe it would even be nice to have Rubio play defense off ball because his main defensive asset is his ability to make quick reads on passes and intercept them.
New Rubio video
compares him to Maravich. Lots of great footage. Anyone with that many highlights at that age has to be great.
That video
is pretty sick. If Rubio can put a little muscle on and develop a little bit more of an outside shit, holy crap. Imagine if he was on a team like the Hawks this year?
Deadly.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
More (advanced) stats
Forgive me for linking to my own site, but there are some more stats (Euroleague only) for Rubio and Pekovic, including rebound percentages, basic floor time stats and percentages of assisted field goals. Maybe you find them interesting.
http://www.in-the-game.org/?page_id=378 (Rubio)
http://www.in-the-game.org/?page_id=576 (Pekovic)
The 70 possessions is just an adjustment I made since a little over 70 is the average for number of possessions a Euroleague team has in one game.
By the way, there are rumours (and just that) about Pekovic considering the NBA for the upcoming season. At the same time, there are rumours that Panathinaikos is very interested in (or already in talks with) Partizan’s Aleksandar Maric, who could be a nice fit as Pekovic’s successor. Take it for what it’s worth.
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