The Puppy Cup; Lost Behind the Back
by Stop-n-Pop on Dec 9, 2009 7:54 AM CST
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PrintWolves v. Huskies. Due to the hour or so I just spent shoveling, this is going to be a short wrap up. I know the game wasn't available on local TV so here's all you need to know:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| Minnesota | 95.0 | 92.6 | 38.8% | 21.3 | 26.9 | 14.7 |
| Toronto | 98.9 | 33.3% | 49.4 | 29.1 | 9.5 |
That's right, the Raptors had a FT/FG rate of nearly 50%. On almost 50% of their possessions, they shot a free throw. That's pretty incredible. The Wolves may have caught the Raptors on a night without their starting point guard and where they went 2-21 from 3, yet they ran into a buzz saw at the free throw line, getting out-FTA'd 48-23. I watched the entire game on League Pass and there is really nothing else I can say about why the Wolves lost other than this simple fact. When you are -25 in the FTA column, you aren't going to win any games. Actually that's not completely true. While I can't search for FTA differential, 36 teams have won games while giving up over 45 FTA/game while shooting less than 25. Whatever the case, when you get blasted at the line like this, your chances of winning aren't that hot.
In other Basketball Reference Game Finder news, Toronto joined an elite club last night when they made only 2 of their 21 3 point attempts. Only 35 teams since 86 have made 3 or less 3 pointers while taking more than 20, led by Denver's amazing 2-25 effort in 1997. If you really want to get crazy, when you throw in the Wolves' 3-16 effort from beyond the arc, only 2 teams since 86 have had a 3-16 team matched up against a team with more than 20 attempts and less than 3 makes from 3.
In the you-wouldn't-know-about-it-if-you-didn't-watch-the-game department, you may have read or heard something about Jonny Flynn attempting a behind the back pass to Kevin Love when the game was on the line only to have it stolen by the glacially slow Hedo Turkoglu and dunked at the other end of the court. Flynn has attempted (and made) this pass several times this year. It was not a flashy play and it probably could have been completed had Kevin Love taken a better break at the ball. Here's what Rambis had to say about the pass:
"You never want a pass that can be delivered in a simple way thrown in a showmanship-type way," he said. "But that's not how I view that pass. Jonny was being guarded on his left side. It was a deliverable behind-the-back pass. It just wasn't made accurately, that's all. I don't think Jonny was trying to do anything fancy. The idea was right, the execution was just flawed."
Agreed.
Another had-to-see-it moment came right before Antoine Wright hit the dagger three from the corner to put the game out of reach. Wright was being guarded by Corey Brewer and when the play was initiated from the top right wing towards the hoop by the point guard, Brewer needlessly sagged off his man to the point where he could not recover to the corner to disrupt the three attempt after the ball was kicked out to the wing. This is a point where the Wolves need to trust their big men to defend the paint. Brewer was obviously going for the help defense angle, and perhaps this is simply an example of him ostensibly being the only good defender on a bad defensive squad (i.e. he's 100% geared to slide off his man whenever possible to help out his poorer-defending teammates...especially Mr. Al Jefferson), but he allowed for not only an easy pass, but an easy dagger shot to seal the game for the Raptors. If you are a crappy offensive player (and Brewer truly is an awful offensive player right now), these are not the types of defensive plays that will keep you on the court. Sure enough, Brewer was yanked for Ellington at the next whistle.
Wrapping this little ditty up, I know that the team wants to build Jonny Flynn's confidence, but Ramon Sessions needs to play down the stretch. We'll flesh this out on a bit less-snowier day but Sessions can't be sitting on the bench in the last 5 minutes of the game if the team wants its best chance of winning.
Oh, one more thing: Kevin Love is pretty damn good.
Gotta run. Time for more shoveling.
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Sessions needs to play more. And yeah, Wright shouldn’t have been left that open. But Wright’s shooting has been pretty woeful lately, so I was surprised when the shot dropped, even though it was a great look.
I just really like Sessions for value
and I think he is either the fallback option if/when Flynn struggles, or if Flynn succeeds, will be moved to a contender for a wing. Signing Sessions is still the best move this front office has made so far, in my opinion.
Agreed
I really see the latter scenario unfolding where Sessions gets traded for a wing. My prediction is it will happen in the summer, not before this season’s deadline. It will give Wolves management a full season of watching Flynn and Rubio. Something to consider, if Sessions is still a Wolf next season and there is still a major hole on the wing, IMO that would be an indicator that the Wolves are not confident in Flynn and/or Rubio.
Sessions might be the canary in the coal mine.
Didn't get to see it.
It sounds like the team, even though it didn’t finish off the game, is still taking steps in the right direction. I take it that Love had another game that was bigger than the stat line shows? Of course, his stat line isn’t bad.
Oh, and as for snow...
It’s funny just how bad a Prius is in the snow… a bit like a turtle on its back. I helped two people get out of smallish drifts in the parking lot this morning. Both drove a Prius with they’re mini-tires.
suburban doesn't look so bad now does it?
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 9, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
Heck,
My all-wheel drive Subaru probably looked like a arctic snow vehicle to those people in their… whatever the plural of Prius might be.
by Krotz the Wall on Dec 9, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
Lil' Forester does great
The low center of gravity of the boxer engines in Subarus: excellent in snow.
The low surface area of narrow Prius tires, on the other hand…. is good in terms of friction against the road for fuel efficiency, maybe?
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
My one wheel drive fixed gear bicycle worked great this morning
And I got a nice free workout to go with my commute. I was sliding less and moving easier than a lot of the cars on the roads.
Yeah,
I used to do that from my apartment Uptown down to the airport. The problem was that after dark, drivers just could not see you coming, no matter how many lights I had blinking on both ends.
Good times, though.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Yes about fuel efficiency
Many manufacturers switched to lower traction (easy rolling) tires to improve fuel efficiency. Can be worth 1 or 2 MPG, which was a big selling point when gas was $4 per gallon.
Thank you for a little sunshine in my day
I love how people who drive 20,000 miles a year in a putt-putt car get sanctimonious toward someone driving an AWD SUV 10,000 miles a year. I also wonder how much gas the tow trucks use to pull these Prius drivers from ditches?
Offense question
With respect to Sessions and Flynn and any number of other tactical decisions made by Rambis:
Is it possible one of the traits of the ‘flow’ (not to use a geometric name) offense we’re using some is that it encourages coaches to think in less immediate terms during a given game? Is Rambis more likely to keep his ‘play the kids, develop young talent’ mantra in mind because he’s not tangled up in shouting plays in from the sidelines so much, for example? Does he therefore tend not to get caught up in chess moves that might result in sending someone like Cardinal out there for veteran savvy and range shooting down the stretch?
That wouldn’t explain Sessions, obviously, because Ramon’s plenty young himself. The guy’s shown more determination than many coaches when it comes to the likes of Wilkins and Cardinal, though. Those are mediocre veterans, don’t get me wrong — but many coaches would put them out there on the grounds that they’ve been in those situations before. Randy Wittman, for example. Randy had ’Toine Walker on the floor a crunch time early two years ago, if I remember right.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Really good question
I don’t know if I have a direct response for it, but I do think that part of the conversation about it needs to include the suspicion held by some of us that Rambis isn’t playing to win at all costs right now. (Before anyone gets their stuff all bunched up, I’m not saying that Rambis doesn’t want to win, rather he’s favoring giving the young guys a chance to learn how to come back or close out a team instead of putting in retread veterans in the hopes that Cardinal won’t sag on help defense as much as Brewer did).
The evidence to support this line of thinking, for me, if found primarily in two observations: 1. often this season we have had lineups that are being productive, especially in getting us back in games in the third and fourth quarters, subbed out for less productive lineups (Flynn comes in for Sessions, Pavs comes in for Gomes or Wilkens, or Hollins or Pech is left out there to finish a game). This may have been partially a product of Love being out, but I think it’s also a product of Rambis giving guys the opportunity to fail or succeed in a variety of circumstances. You better believe that Flynn learned a sh#t-ton about executing down the stretch last night after that behind the back pass. That’s something that’s going to make a huge difference down the road and something he’s not going to get if he’s riding the bench watching Ramon.
2. Rambis and Kahn are safe this year. They only have to show progress next year. If you have the opportunity to tinker, experiment, and give a good strong look at some guys, why not? McHale (and Wittman) had the pressure to win and be competitive, and so we saw a lot more rotational tinkering in games to try and eek out a win no matter what. Guys like Brewer were really stunted by that approach, and guys like Foye were subtly encouraged to keep jacking up shots in hopes of getting enough to win.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
agreed
small difference between tanking and not playing to win at all costs. For some people not doing everything to win know is the same as having maddog hoist up 3’s. I don’t mind the losing when you can tell that they are playing hard and well but made some yound player mistakes provided those mistakes are constantly repeated and progress is being made. This experience will be very good for these players down the road provided that they are winning enough to see what they need to be able to do to win.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 9, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
I think you’re dead on.
It’s also important to remember that along with learning from his mistakes, Jonny is being given the opportunity to step up in the clutch. Prior to biffing that pass, he had hit a 3, got a steal and layup and then a minute or two later nailed an open jumper to bring us back into this game. If he weren’t out there in the 4th he wouldn’t be in those situations, building confidence in his ability to carry a team down the stretch.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Winning is definitely secondary at this time
Winning an extra five games with Cardinal or Wilkins does little long term for the Wolves. They need to establish their system, and figure out which guys are going to help in that system in five years. Finding four keepers by the end of this season defines success, not winning 30 games.
The 'flow' offense
definitely reduces the role of coaching during a game. The idea is to react to what the defense does or does not do. It obviously is better suited to players experienced in the system, which unfortunately from a win stand point requires giving playing time to the young guys.
Al Jefferson
What is happening to Al Jefferson shot? When was the last time he shot over 50% in a game? Should we be concerned?
Quick response
Is that his legs aren’t under him yet. Might not be until next year before his shot returns as normal.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
I'm still think Al's body/weight is a major issue...
… most people aren’t attributing Al’s poor offensive play to his “new” body, but I suspect his weight loss is as culpable for his lackluster performance as is his rehab/conditioning. Al no longer has the strength to get the kind of position, deep in the paint, he used to get (the kind of position he’d get even when his conditioning wasn’t the greatest). His inability to consistently get deep position makes his push shot more difficult and lowers his shooting percentage. (Frankly, it makes him pretty damn inefficient, and we don’t need advanced stats to see that.)
So why can’t Al get the position he used to? Oceanary has said that it’s because he’s now matched up against the opposing team’s center on a nightly basis. True, but that was also the case for most of last season, and he dominated the block then. Others say that Al simply hasn’t had enough time to recover from his injury. This probably plays a role, but given that we’re not competing for a playoff spot this year, I’m dubious about why he’d be playing if he hasn’t recovered.
On the Jefferson weight issue, it’s interesting that Al lost so much weight and strength while many others who have been sidelined by knee injuries use the rehab period to build their bodies. Oden arguably put on too much muscle during his microfracture rehab, and even Shaddy McCants—whose dedication to strength training is probably not much greater than Al’s—came back much bigger and stronger. My memory is that Amare Stoudemire also returned from knee surgery with an improved body. (Sadly, even though he gained size and strength during his rehab, it appears that he’ll never be the player he was before the injury.) Brewer does not appear to be any stronger now than in the past, but he has a special body type that isn’t amenable to weight gain. So if there’s a trend toward adding increased muscle mass during knee injury rehab (and this small sample doesn’t prove that there is, I’m just speculating), why does Al Jeff look emaciated?
My question is, did the Wolves have a trainer dedicated to working with Al during the rehab? Or did the flux period following McHale’s dismissal/Kahn’s hiring/Rambis’ hiring leave Al largely isolated during this period? I hope Rambis et al are getting him to bulk up while he continues to rehab his knee.
by Shogun on Dec 9, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It probably has something to do with how Al is being defended
If I was guarding him, knowing he is still not 100% I would probably guard him differently than last season. Being lighter and having a weak knee probably makes it tougher on him when defenders body up on him. Should get better as his knee strengthens.
I also wonder
just how freaking smart it is for a pro athlete to lose weight on the Subway diet. Not the best meat and overly processed bread with nothing special for veggies.
Good point...
but I think many NBA players put things worse than Subway into their body on a daily basis. (See Buckets, Ricky.)
It really seems less than professional, doesn't it?
Next to Al, Kevin Love’s ‘food from a bag’ trainer seems like positively Star Trekkian high techitude.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
on the fouls
Two things I’ve noted
1. Other teams appear to be particularly aggressive in going for steals and strips against the Wolves, especially on drives to the basket. I think this is because other teams know the wolves will not get calls, so the are aggressive because if they get mostly ball a foul will not be called. They would not use this same strategy against a the Celtics. Of course, another part of this is that many Twolves are horrible at guarding the ball on drives.
2. Because the this, the wolves should forget attempts to induce contact (especially on the perimeter) before the shot. Love attempted to do this on a long 2 (or a three) late in the game yesterday, he was clearly hit the on arm, but no foul was called and the Raptors got a steal. Wolves are just not getting those calls.
I have seen an awful lot of very poor reffing
(refing?) in multiple sports and leagues this year that always leave me stratching my head wondering WTF?!?!?!
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 9, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
Al is shooting jump shots this season, and missing most of them. Props to big Al for showing some understanding of how the triangle could work. Now get back under the basket where you belong.
by Dave T on Dec 9, 2009 6:32 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Why not move...???
Seriously, having to shovel is no fun, and I think more writing would benefit everyone much more – so, my thought is that you move to a warmer climate or grab an apartment and “shovel” off the responsibility to someone else – just a thought~
Great job on the insights – keep it up.
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