This is not going to be pretty
by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 10:54 AM CST
39 comments
I don't know what else to say about last night's game. It was ugly. Both teams were without their best players and the Wolves had the look of a squad who didn't really know how to play with one another. We've been talking about the importance of help defense all year long, but....well, you do need to know how to play man defense to a certain extent. You can't switch on everybody.
The Raptors didn't figure out the switch trick until after halftime, when they were treated to a buffet of open layups and 3 balls. Again, what else can you say about a game like this? Let's try out a few bullet points:
Positives:
- They only had 7 turnovers
- Randy Foye clearly understands the new pecking order
- They still won the battle on the offensive glass
- They won the free throw battle
Negatives:
- Only 9 minutes for Collins, Booth, or Madsen when Kevin Love is the only legit front court player out there.
- Rashad McCants had the flu. Should this be in the positive category? I can no longer tell with McCants. Perhaps I have a case of Shaddyfreude. He does that to people.
- Kevin Love is not a 35 mpg player right now.
- Sebastian Telfair and Foye are not 40 mpg players.
One of the most notable things about last night's game was that Love's greatest asset--his ability to operate as an upper level gap filler--was neutralized by having to play next to one pole (Foye) rather than in between two (Foye and Big Al). He's a 20 year old rookie big who excels at rebounding, ball movement, help defense, and hustle. When he gains more leg strength and masters the art of the 15-17 foot jump shot, he'll be the type of guy that can better handle this type of load, but for now...35+ mpg could get ugly on his front as well. Plus, at this point in the game, the low post ain't exactly his thing. Here's hoping that the Wolves install some more 4 out or 5 out sets after the All Star game. Keep Love in the high post and run some dribble drives off the perimeter.
As for Mike Miller, I'm of the opinion that he should be aggressively shopped before the deadline. With rumors that NOLA is going broke, with a bad economy and several restricted free agents about to hit the market, and with Phoenix looking to blow things up and wanting specific assets in return (ones that Golden State and Chicago are hard pressed to fill individually), the Wolves are in prime shape to get something done. When teams are talking about getting rid of Tyson Chandler and trading Raymond Felton for Jamaal Tinsley, and when the season is shaping up to be nothing more than a string of pickup-level games, making a fairly decent sized move may be the only way to keep this thing interesting moving forward. Plus, it makes sense as far as the long term prospects of this club are concerned. The Wolves have a nice perimeter asset (Miller), @ $10 mil in expiring contracts (Shaddy + Collins), 4 potential 1st rounders, and a stashed Euro. If they had their eye on an 09/10 free agent, now is the time to make it happen, especially with a bad economy and teams looking to part ways with upcoming restricted free agents so that they can get something in return.
Finally, since we're staring at the very real possibility of fewer than 5 wins from here on out, how can fans judge success on this squad? What will you be looking for?
Until later.
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Really great post
One thing about the Felton-for-Tinsley thing: it’s my understanding that they only way that happens is if Indy takes back Nazr Mohammed as well. So it’s one crappy player and worse contract for another, with the real trade being Jeff Foster for Felton.
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 11:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Should I stay or Should I go?
Short answer – they should go.
Move Mike Miller now – he doesn’t fit with the Wolves, and he is over-valued by the league who remembers “the real Mike Miller – 6th man” and drool over his 2010 expiring contract. BTW – he’s also the only free agent the Wolves could hope to sign in 2010. I’m willing to trade him for expiring contract trash (read Sczerbiak or LaFrentz) so the Wolves can get in on 2009 free agency. Even if Mike Miller only get’s us out from under Cardinal’s contract a year early – great success!
Collins, Carney, McCants, Booth… If New Orleans is serious about trading Chandler these expiring contracts are the key. Unlike a side post, I think the Wolves would have to part with at least the Miami pick, if not their own pick this year to land Chandler – who would be perfect next to Big Al. I’m also down with a Chandler-Al-Love rotation that splits minutes 32-36-28. To make the deal work I’d give up the MIami pick and a future unprotected #1 – with New Orleans knowing that if the pick is worse than top 10 it goes to the Clips – so there is almost ceiling protection for NO. I think with a healthy front court of Love-Jeff-Chandler the Wolves don’t get too many top 10 picks after 2009.
To roll with this a bit further – Minny is in the driver’s seat to force Atlanta’s hand on Marvin Williams. Land that in free agency and use this year’s top pick on a PG and this team is set!
PG – (Rubio/Jennings/Teague/Curry) – Telfair
SG – Foye – Brewer
SF – Williams – Gomes
PF – Al Jeff – Love – (Pekovic 2010)
C – Chandler – Al Jeff
As for Kevin Love at 35 MPG the rest of the year? Maybe this is what he needs to re-shape his body… or destroy his psyche by being over-powered every night playing the 5. I don’t mind 35 MPG, but he’s got to play the 4 so he has a chance.
by gill0137 on Feb 11, 2009 12:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
This is the combination that's
the most realistic and most exciting scenario I’ve seen, from what I’ve been able to glean from spending too much time on the web. A couple of other items I’d like to see when filling out the roster are:
1. Where in the world is Shaun Livingston?
2. Get a lean swatter with one of the later picks (a la Jerome Jordan)
3. Still add Pops Blah Blah Blah-Blah to the roster, preferably this year
4. Pick Mario Chalmers version 2.0 with one of the 2nd round picks, to stash on the roster for future development
5. Get a young, flawed scorer at the 2 to eventually serve as a Vinnie Johnson type off the bench
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there's got to be something wrong with Livingston
if he still hasn’t been picked up anywhere, much less here. It’s pretty easy to argue that a point with size would fit perfectly on this team. Anyone know anything about him?
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the wolves have to get the roster exception to add a player anyway
by oblivionspocket on Feb 11, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right--
I’m thinking he might have rejected the Wolves at any price.
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if true, that's crazy -
is he waiting for the Lakers or Cavs or something? Weird.
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would that fit..
under the cap? Also It seems a stretch to expect Glen to add two 10 million a year players who are both guys that won’t excite casual fans.
by Pants_ on Feb 11, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I recall reading
the results of a study that was released a few days ago. It said the home team’s fans turn out for two main reasons:
1. Wininng by the home team
2. Exciting/flamboyant/well-known stars on the visiting team
That said, I’m not sure Glen is going to add those $10 million players, no matter how many wins/fans they can garner.
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 2:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The trade problems
The Chandler trade does not work with just McCants and Collins don’t get it done. You would need to add Booth. That is where the problem comes in. NO has 14 players under guaranteed contracts with 1 10 day contract. The would need to cut and/or waive 2 players to be able to able to get our 3 back. I don’t see NO doing this unless we were willing to offer some cash to cover the salary. (Like Phillie did for part of Booth’s salary) I don’t see Taylor doing that – if he was willing to eat salary – I would have expected Booth to be cut so that we could sign a replacement for Ollie. Taylor, like it or not, is also operating on the cheap. (I’ll go to my grave saying that the reason McHale is coaching is that Taylor refused to pay for another coach salary)
As you point out, we can’t trade our pick right now as it is in limbo with the Clippers. Yeah, I know – without Big Al we are not going to finish above 10. But the NBA only makes that determination at the end of the season – we can’t trade it right now. So, MIami and Boston are the only current tradeable 1st rounders. I would NEVER make the unprotected trade offer – if Big Al is not able to play next year – we could have a top 3 pick. Chandler is not worth that risk.
I really don’t see how we force Atlanta’s hands on Williams. He is a key part of a team looking at the 4 seed (and a favorable 2nd round match up vs the Celtics) And Atlanta has no depth. The qualifying offer is a relatively reasonable $7M. So why does Atlanta take anything we have for Williams?
The one trade that I think works would be Miller + cash for Camby. Both have the same salary and # of years left. Clippers really need a wing, we need the post. Plus, the current Miller (the team focus version) actually fits better with the Clippers than a Shooting Miller (a shooting Miller fits better with the Cavs, for example). If we sweeten the deal with cash, I think Sterling might be willing to pull the trigger.
by Just A Fan on Feb 11, 2009 9:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Love needs big minutes.
If we were a terrible NFL team with a rookie QB that would only get pummeled by starting each game, I’d say resting the rook is a wise decision.
Thankfully, this is basketball—a far-less dangerous sport where playing the game actually puts your body in better shape than if it were resting. From a conditioning standpoint, Love would benefit from huge minutes.
He’d also benefit from an experience/basketball-savvy standpoint. His bullish low-post game isn’t very effective, yet. Why not work on it in the 30 games that Big Al isn’t occupying the block? In our hypothetical Trio of Bigs Scenario, Love would be the scoring power forward for the minutes that Jefferson sits. He’ll need to improve if this is going to work.
by Andy G on Feb 11, 2009 12:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
the problem with "huge" minutes for rookies
is that they burn out really quickly, except in rare cases. I think this can actually be counter-productive – learning bad habits, risking injury, etc. I really like McHale’s approach with Love: trying to monitor things once he gets to, what did he say, the 30-min. mark? Of course if you ask a guy how he’s doing he’ll always say “fine” since he wants to stay in the game…but there are ways around this too.
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We limited his minutes for the first 50 games
Now I think we can let him go hard for the last 30. We kind of did this with KG, his rookie year. Love had a year of Pac-10 ball to get ready (compared to KG who was coming straight from HS).
by Andy G on Feb 11, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Love played 38 minutes last night. I think we can assuming baring injury Love will go 35+ the rest of the way. He probably would have been at 35 even with Jefferson, but now I think you can count on it every night.
As long as Craig is out they have don’t have anyone else who can score inside.
by Pants_ on Feb 11, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Love's Minutes
Really it can’t be that big of a deal if we pay Love between 30 and 35 minutes a game. I’d much rather have him burn out a little and learn from it this year, than next year when the games could potentially matter.
I can also say that as someone that DVR’s every Wolves game, the Fast Forward button becomes VERY tempting without Brewer, Jefferson, and Love on the floor. I need as many reasons as possible to watch these games.
by Blakeley on Feb 11, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As someone who almost fell asleep in his seat, last night....
it’s even worse when both Love and Foye are out of the lineup. That stretch at the end of the 3rd Quarter was just plain hard to watch.
by Andy G on Feb 11, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
While I never...
..played 82 professional basketball games a year, I did run at a fairly high level and I imagine going from 25 mpg to 35 mpg is like switching from a 10k to a marathon. That extra 10 minutes/game is a 40% increase in what they’re asking from him. He’s going hard for those 25 minutes. It isn’t like there’s anything extra in his tank to use up. You have to work your way up the ladder in terms of what your body is able to handle and while I completely sympathize with the fact that this team is unwatchable without Love or Foye in there, I think they’re playing with fire by having him in there for that many minutes. Talk about injury potential. I think they should continue as planned with his minutes. They were working him up nicely.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Games aren't supposed to be the hard part.
Pre-season and practice were always a lot harder on me than the games were. There are more than enough timeouts (and TV timeouts) to get a young player in there for a full load of minutes. Mayo and Gordon have no trouble playing 40 minutes. Love wouldn’t either. His efficiency/rebounding rate stuff might go down, but to that I say “tough shit.” I guarantee you that he wouldn’t mind the extra PT and neither would the fans. Other than cramping up, I’ve never heard of injuries coming out of too much playing time. In basketball, they come from freak accident’s, like Jefferson’s weird landing and Kobe flying into Bynum’s knee.
by Andy G on Feb 11, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mayo and Gordon aren't through the season yet either
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
every time I see how many minutes Mayo is playing I cringe. That’s a bad use of one’s assets in my opinion. And re: injuries: I think players are definitely more likely to get injured when they’re tired, if anything it’s the no.1 determining factor in injuries.
Andy by the way don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you’re wrong, I just have a slightly different outlook on the thing. You’re right that he wouldn’t mind the playing time…and as you say he’s very young.
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post, I especially like your “gap-filling” stuff re: Love – a very nice way to describe his game. I agree with the 4-out sets too, Love could do some nice things going to the basket, also with his passing ability there is some serious backdoor potential there too, almost a princeton offence type thing. I mean this is basically what Toronto does when Bosh and Bargnani are on the floor at the same time – a very FIBA setup where Bosh has the ball in the high post and everyone else can shoot the 3. I’m not saying Love is Bosh, and it’s tough to play D with him as your single big, but that kind of offence could be tough to stop if he’s hitting the 17-footer.
I think you also make some interesting points about trades in this economy – I hadn’t thought of it this way but you wonder if some of the owners are in serious trouble. You hate to take advantage of people in tough times…and who knows, maybe Taylor’s hurting as much as or more than anyone else…but, as in any crisis time, there might be some real deals to be had. God I feel dirty just writing that, but I guess that’s how things work.
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 1:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Henry Abbott
has had multiple posts quoting (anonymous) coaches, GMs, owner, agents and players stating that almost EVERY team is trying to cut costs, and very few of them are doing it do make room for expensive free agents or trades. I don’t think Glen’s businesses are any different, and may be worse.
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well..
…as a resident of Mankato I can tell you that Papa Glen’s empire isn’t in the best shape it’s been in. However, if they make a revenue neutral trade to bring in a key piece, they can fill the rest in with draft picks on the cheap. Miller + Shaddy = up to $12 mil back in a single player. Cardinal comes off next year and they can go cheap with prospects for spots 11-15 when they clear up.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t Glen Taylor facing a lot of competition from wedding invitation software or something like that?
by oblivionspocket on Feb 11, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly...
..it’s pretty easy to make your own invites these days. Our neighbor just was let go from his post-it empire and I think she said it had something to do with losing a large government contract.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
oh ps
I’m surprised you didn’t say anything about Miller’s “self-injury”? How bizarre was that? I mean I guess it happens when you’re playing on ankles that aren’t 100%, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more awkward-looking sequence of events on a basketball court!
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 1:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Collins fell down too..
…weird stuff.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another good thing about the Wolves status:
Instead of trying to stay in the lottery and keep the pick, those 22 wins you’re projecting could put the Wolves in the thick of the Griffin/Rubio Sweepstakes. Get healthy Clippers! Wizards—trade for talent! OKC Thunder, show us what you can do!
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 3:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wovles vs. Wiz on the 1st game back from the All Star break
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I've been against the idea
of not going for the win all year because I think it fosters the wrong environment. But now that regardless of how hard they play they’ll probably lose anyways, well, I’m beginning to see the silver lining…
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a lot more room in the paint without Jefferson around
I noticed watching the game last night that drives into the lane seemed much more successful for the Wolves than they typically are. I suppose some of this increased ability to dribble into the paint has to do with the sets they run when Al isn’t on the court. A lot of it could also just be the Raptors having inferior interior defense. However, when Al is camping out in the post waiting for the ball, the lane gets clogged up. Not only is Al’s defender waiting for him to get the ball, another player will be waiting nearby to double team him. Al isn’t exactly the master of hitting cutters on the way to the rim either. Obviously, I want Al to be healthy because I want any person to be healthy, because he’s a great basketball player and because I love the post game, but Al’s absence could allow some offensive creativity.
In fact, Al’s absence is going to force a new level of creativity out of Mchale and the players on offense. Pretty soon, we’ll be watching commercials with the slogan, “come see how fun we lose.”
Still, there’s no defensive solution to working with lineups where the 4 and 5 positions are both being played by players who are 6’6’’-’6’9’’.
by oblivionspocket on Feb 11, 2009 4:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
. . . and can't leap to save their lives
by PoorDick on Feb 11, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, forgot to add that part. If one of them had quick hops, we could survive.
by oblivionspocket on Feb 11, 2009 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I think you make a very good point,
Foye even said something about there being more room in the lane at the end of the 1st half.
I think the other thing that happens with your star post scorer out is this: shooting percentages may go up just because guys aren’t wondering whether they should shoot or not. I think that when you’re a shooter and you’re playing with a good low post scorer, you’re always thinking, if only in the back of your mind: should I take this shot? Shouldn’t I pass it to Jefferson instead, since my shot would be from 23 feet and his would be from 5? Especially nowadays when there are so few legit low post scorers (one of the Denver fans in here the other day said Al is the first real low-post guy since Duncan), it must be almost confusing when you have one on your team.
by plinytheelder on Feb 11, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
mayn hol up
mayn dis migh be good righ here. maybe de wolves will learn how to ball when al aint in de lineup which seems to be a problem mayn. how many timez haz J Pete been like “dis is gittin stagnant righ here time to get al back in de game”. EVERY 4th QUARTER MAYN!!!!!!! ah mayn i miss big al as much as de nexx guy PAUSE but mayn im still gon be chiefin on de kill and sayin TWOLVES ALL DAY AYEDAY!
AND NEW COLUMN UP ON COCAINEBLUNTS MAYN! I EVEN GIVE BIG AL A SHOUT OUT MAYNNNNNNN
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Feb 11, 2009 6:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
For the uninitiated:
http://www.cocaineblunts.com/blunts/?p=1939
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 11, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What will you be looking for?
The Draft and trade rumors, sad but true.
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Feb 12, 2009 4:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
yep
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by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 12, 2009 7:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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