Recap of deadline day for the Wolves
by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 20, 2009 10:00 AM CST
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OK, first of all, it's time to end the madness over at the Strib. Fact checking matters, non-hackery matters, relevant writing matters, integrity matters. With that in mind, I give you Grandpa Sports:
Sacramento got the best of the deal it made with the Timberwolves on Thursday when it acquired shooting guard Rashad McCants and center Calvin Booth for point guard Bobby Brown and forward Shelden Williams.
The only way the Wolves win that deal is if the 6-9 Williams surprises and helps the Wolves inside, somewhat lessening the loss of injured Wolves star Al Jefferson.
The fact that the Minnesota Timberwolves could turn a scowling malcontent and a guy who only saw 40 seconds of action all year long into something more than a pack of gum is a minor masterpiece of front office management. They "win" the deal by getting a warm body with an expiring contract who can play 10 minutes in the front court in exchange for a shooting guard that doesn't play. They "win" the deal by trading a guy whose only 2009 stat is a single rebound for a point guard with a minimal contract who can play the 10-15 minutes on the ball that Sebastian Telfair is on the bench. The idea that there is some sort of potential left in a fourth year player with his head screwed on sideways (and who wasn't re-signing here anyway) is nuts. He is who he is and he'll really need Facebook to communicate with his honeys when he ends up at his final basketball destination: Russia or New Zealand.
OK, that's not even the bad part of the article. See if you can square this circle. Here is the conclusion of Grandpa Sports' take on Shaddy:
The Wolves aren't going anywhere. They are actually better off not winning many games so maybe they can get lucky and get the top pick in the lottery for once.
Can you imagine what is contained in the prior paragraph?
It's too bad the Wolves couldn't have acquired Brad Miller, who went to Chicago from Sacramento. He would have helped them.
Yes, he could have helped them win more games to reduce their chances of winning the top pick in the lottery.
On top of this nonsense, Grandpa Sports, while writing about how the Wolves lost the deal, states the obvious assumption that Shaddy never would have re-signed with the Wolves.
The Wolves didn't plan to re-sign him, and he wasn't interested even if they wanted him back.
Anywho....
Moving forward, the Wolves now have 11 players on the books (if you include Bobby Brown's player option) for $50,918,778. With the possibility of 4 first round draft picks, they are in position to fill out the roster with cost-effective options.
Most importantly (and here is where Jim Stack deserves a huge amount of credit for keeping his powder dry), the Wolves enter next season with 4 expiring contracts worth $21.6 mil: Mike Miller ($9.8), Brian Cardinal ($6.7), Mark Madsen ($2.8), and Craig Smith ($2.3). If you factor in the 125% + $100k rule, this means the Wolves can theoretically take back in $27.1 mil of contracts. If you factor in assets like Nikola Pekovic and the Utah pick, the Wolves are well placed to make two significant trades at the next trade deadline. If they really like Kirk Hinrich, he'll likely still be in a Bulls uniform a year from now.
Speaking of Captain Kirk, I find it somewhat baffling that the Bulls did not move him to the Wolves when they had the chance. They are currently looking at a 09/10 cap number of $64,240,132 with only 10 contracts and an unsigned Ben Gordon. With the Brad Miller deal, they actually took on more salary than they sent out. They are not in the driver's seat when it comes to dictating the terms of any hypothetical Hinrich deal. Throw in a $2 mil draft pick and they're close to the lux mark with roster spots still to fill.
Perhaps the most surprising thing that didn't happen yesterday was the Wiz standing pat. Here is their thought process: They want to maintain their core group of players. They also want to avoid the luxury tax. In order to make this happen, they needed (past tense) to trade their very favorable draft pick (and the unfavorable contracts of Etan Thomas and Mike James) for expiring contracts. At this point, there is no way they can simply walk away from the lux tax by trading Thomas and James for expiring contracts because they will have to take back in just as much salary as they send out. If you can figure out how they will come in under the lux mark in 09/10 (likely under $70 mil) you are a better man than I. They currently sit at $76 mil with 14 contracts. If they land a top 5 pick, they could be looking at as much as an $80 mil roster. The bottom line here is that the Wolves still have an opportunity to use their expiring contracts and future assets to pry the Wiz's first pick from their hands.
Wrapping this thing up, the Wolves made a decent trade yesterday. They traded relatively useless assets for 2 players that fill functional needs: 10-15 mpg players at the 1 and 4/5. Sheldon Williams is especially important. He allows Kevin Love to remain as close to his rookie development plan as possible considering that Big Al Jefferson is out for the season. This season is all about developing guys like Love and Bassy from here on out.
Looking forward, the Wolves have put themselves in a position where they can be very active during this off-season as well as at next year's trade deadline. They have enough expiring 09/10 deals to bring back in $27 mil of contracts without sailing way above the luxury mark. This means the team should be looking at financially troubled teams with solid young talent and contracts extending beyond 10/11. I suppose it could mean taking a flier on a sign-and-trade with a big name 2010 free agent, but that's not something I'd bank on. Here are a few teams the Wolves should keep an eye on:
- Washington: $76.1 mil with 14 contracts. Main assets are #1 pick, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, and Caron Butler.
- Charlotte: $66.7 mil with 12 contracts. Main assets are Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw.
- Chicago: $64.2 mil with 10 contracts. Main assets are Ty Thomas, Joakim Noah, and Kirk Hinrich.
- New Orleans: $77.8 mil with 11 contracts. Main assets are Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, and Peja Stojakovic. You may think I'm crazy, but with Chandler's toe being banged up, NOLA's only way forward might be to unload Mr. Paul. I honestly think he is the prize to be had during this off-season and up until the next trade deadline. If a team can take Paul and Peja while giving back expiring contracts, picks, and a decent young player or two, I think that deal gets done. My guess is that this is the road Portland travels down.
- Dallas: $71.2 mil with 10 contracts. Main assets are Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard.
There are a few other teams out there that could be interesting. Indiana is cap heavy but I'm not sure they have much to offer in return. If Toronto keeps Shawn Marion, they could be looking to start over if Chris Bosh gives some early signals that he wants out. If there is one big name 2010 player that I think the Wolves have a shot at, it is Bosh. Sacramento is clearing cap space but are their finances solid enough to keep Kevin Martin around without a lot of wins?
Anywho, you get the picture. There are going to be a few sellers this off-season and next year at the trade deadline. From Hinrich to Samuel Dalembert, the Wolves probably have a better chance of landing their choice of players for better value by waiting. Yesterday was another solid day at the office for Jim Stack, Fred Hoiberg, and Rob Babcock. I leave you with a quote from Stack in the Strib article on the trade:
The trade was the only deal the Wolves made before Thursday's deadline. Stack said he explored options with "every single team in the league," looking to turn assets the team has acquired -- expiring contracts, future salary-cap space, extra first-round picks -- into a player who could hasten the team's rebuilding process. One player they reportedly pursued: Chicago point guard Kirk Hinrich.
"Flexibility is important because it gives you options," Stack said. "But at a certain point in time, you have to pick an option that addresses your needs."
Exactly. Here's hoping that they can turn some of this flexibility into solid assets leading up to next year's trade deadline.
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Excellent article
Pretty much summed up my take on this whole thing as well. Getting Paul would be absolutely incredible. Out of all the players out there, I think he is one of the few that would immediately (and legitimately) increase our win total by 10-15. Could you imagine? Paul, Big Al, the Big Piranha, Foye, a couple of draft picks, etc. etc.? That would be some entertaining basketball.
Rooting for losses
but I’ll still watch us play the Lakers instead of tuning in to the Academy Awards Sunday night….
Fantastic
Post, makes me feel a lot better about not moving on Dalembert and especially Chandler (unless the price was too steep). Here’s hoping for steady growth from Jeff- whoops, I mean Brew – whoops, how about Foye, Wookin Pa Nub and the Coney Island Sea Bass.
I would love to have Paul, obviously, but it would take some time to get used to his foul baiting ways and his acidic on-court persona.
PAUL?! Really?
SnP, I think I’m going to call you crazy on that one. Not saying it’s impossible, but what happens when NOLA does this trade and their fans revolt? It’s not like a KG situation where he’d been with the Wolves for so long and it was just time for something new. CP3 is a top-5 player in the league and has god knows how many years left at that elite level. I think if things are so dire for New Orleans, they do everything BUT move Paul. He is a championship level PG, you build around him even if it’s Brian Cardinal, Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Wait, who does that sound like…
Good stuff as always.
Paul will leave New Orleans...
the same day the Hornets do. I think he’s the least-likely player to be traded in the entire league. No offense to the idea—I just really don’t expect it to happen, since his approval rating in that state is about 100%, I think.
Whatever value...
that franchise has is tied up in him. He might be their only way to get under the luxury tax but they’d also make so much less money that it’d be preposterous.
I would argue that KG
was at least as crucial to the Timberwolves’ popularity as CP3 is to that of the Hornets, and played in a more corporate-friendly market than New Orleans.
Yet it came down to economics (the Wolves didn’t think the extension KG was requesting would return enough in wins and profitablitiy), and team direction (the Wolves decided to rebuild).
Why can’t this also happen to the Hornets and Paul?
That franchise is broke and their most movable asset..
….was just turned down in a trade. I think the Wolves have zero chance to land him but I think Portland will take a run and get him. They may be in a position where they literally can’t afford him. They are entering next season with $77.8 mil guaranteed with 11 contracts. That’s 8 mil over the likely lux mark without a full roster. Every penny they spend on D-Leaguers, 2nd rounders, and cheap talent is doubled. We Wolves fans should recognize this situation for what it is: KG down the river. They’ll never win it all with him on that roster. It’s all patchwork from here on out unless they can move Chandler and Peja. Even then, it will likely be dimishing returns.
The Blazers can start them over with a package including Bayless, Batum, and Aldrich.
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If you add Brandon Roy to that trade...
it starts approaching a rational offer (but still falls short). Has a 1st Team All-NBA player under the age of 25 ever been traded for cap reasons? I have to think this would be a first.
Good point
and especially when you consider the position he plays.
But we are in a new era, or at least not one seen in our lifetimes. The combination of the city in which the Hornets play, with the owner they have, and their current salary/talent/success, means that this could be a first.
Don’t get me wrong—I hope it doesn’t happen.
(unless he goes to the Timberwolves. Then I really hope it happens).
Right, but...
if it’s such a dire situation, I think the team will just be relocated. If you can’t afford your 23-year old superstar you are either a major league baseball team, or you need to move somewhere where that doesn’t happen. I’ll be shocked if there is ever even a trade rumor involving Chris Paul, before the age of 30. (With the obvious Chris Bosh-type scenario being a possible exception).
I think we're already in...
…a really weird economic climate. The cap is going down and the Hornets just tried to unload a key cog who will make just as much as Paul will next year. They tried to unload the equivalent of Paul’s 09/10 salary for table scraps already. It would be unprecedented and I think we’ll see a few unprecedented moves over the course of the next year. Hell, look at the Wizards and the possibility of them trading a top 5 pick. The league just took out something like a $150 mil loan to lend to teams in trouble. Paul may be valuable but at some point, even he crosses the team’s ledger mark.
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From a business standpoint
relocation is a much bigger deal than letting Paul go for picks and salary cap relief. I get how awesome he is. But the Bulls are still in Chicago long after Michael Jordan became an overweight point guard for the Wizards. Besides, the cities that are supposedly asking for a team are going to have plenty to choose from, and aren’t exactly AAA-rated strength themselves.
What you saw in yesterday’s lack of action at the trading deadline is a microcosm of what is and will be sports economics (and all other economics) for at least the near future: cut costs, cut costs, cut costs.
Chris Paul IS the New Orleans Hornets
He will leave the Hornets the day the Timberwolves win the championship. So never.
True, the timing is different than the KG situation
But what happens when an unhappy Paul demands a trade? NO’s leverage with other teams starts dropping, and they decide to get whatever they can from wherever he’s willing to go—the same thing that happened with KG and T’Wolves.
Whoops..
…I see you beat me to the KG situation. They’re in the early stages of patching it together for their superstar.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Your post was too focused on facts, rationale, and common sense
while I cleverly just filled mine up with straw men and hazy recollections.
Awesome work
and made even better by multiple uses of “anywho.” Anywho, in Hollinger’s chat yesterday he echoed the sentiment of haves/have nots this summer (i.e., having flexibility). He said he thinks GMs will be callling Joe Dumars and begging Detroit to take players off their hands so that the team can avoid the luxury tax.
Could the Wolves actually be in a position this summer to say to the Wizards, “Okay, we’ll take Caron Butler, but you’re going to have to throw in your 1st rounder this year, too”?
That would be sweet.
Same with signing/trading for Bosh and CP3. Dynasty in the making.
by biggity2bit on Feb 20, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Eating leftovers
I think you are absolutely right and this is probably our best course for rebuilding the team. It is going to be very difficult to actually sign free agents given our record, location and lack of national media exposure. However, if Papa Glen is willing to use up some of the cap space to buy over-extended team’s quality players on the cheap, this is the best way to get the most bang for the buck. While I think CP3 or Bosh are not in the cards, we should at least be able to get the quality 3 we are in desparate need of. Given the state of the upcoming draft, this seems like the logical place to get our point to go along with Bassy. Hell, it’s the only position where this draft actually has some depth. Anyone know what the state of franchise’s financials are like and whether we are in the position to take on more salary?
As much as I love Paul
that New Orleans deal won’t happen, unless they’re looking to liquidate and shut down the team (and contraction could be possible, if economic conditions don’t change in 3-4 years). They’re probably going to give away Chandler and Peja, and probably pay someone to take the latter off their hands.
Chandler..
…is damaged goods at this point and Peja is worthless by himself. I don’t think they’ll be able to give them away. I think their individual trade value is less than Shaddy’s was at this point. They both have horrible multi-year contracts. They’re also not in a position to pay anyone to take someone off their hands. They screwed the pooch with guys like Mo Pete, James Posey, and Antonio Daniels…..just like the Wolves did with guys like T-Hud and Trenton Hassell.
Just so everyone is clear: I’m not saying the Wolves will go after or have a chance at Paul. However, I do think he will be in a Blazers uniform next year.
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horrible multi-year contracts
is a phrase i am SO GLAD we don’t associate with the Wolves anymore. And you are spot on with the assessment of theirs. But you don’t like Chandler?
Big men..
…with bad feet scare me. Especially at that price tag. If the Thunder were unwilling to take him (on the advice of the doctor who performed the surgery, no less) for medical reasons, I think that’s a harder hit to the chances of moving him than most people are giving it credit for. There’s also the issue of his declining performance. Chandler is the type of player the Wolves need, but at this point, will anyone give up extremely limited resources to get him and allow the Hornets to go forward with the remainder of their roster? The big problem for them is that Peterson and Posey have contracts beyond when most teams need them to expire.
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I think
Chandler was being moved precisely because NOLA was very concerned about paying that kind of money to a player with bad feet. I think they were hoping someone would be so enthralled with the benefits of having a young, dominant defensive center, that they looked past the health issue. Look at it from Marc Stein at ESPN:
Chandler had surgery on his left toe shortly after the 2006-07 season and injured it again in April 2008 in New Orleans’ regular-season finale at Dallas. He then reinjured it during the Hornets’ second-round series against San Antonio, complaining of “turf toe” after he bent the toe backwards by stepping on Ime Udoka’s foot. Chandler was named as a Team USA alternate in July and invited to a pre-Olympic training camp but had to pull out because of the ongoing toe trouble.
To me, that is a LOT of warning signs. So, just because the pundits say “it is obviously a salary dump”, could it just possibly be a salary dump while the asset still has some value? I know that is proactive thinking around here – the Twolves dump only after all the perceived value has been exposed as fraudulent. But maybe other teams are smarter.
Can you imagine a back court of Paul and Roy
WIth Oden at center?…..
…
/mouth open in awe
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 25, 2009 4:34 AM CST up reply actions
Caron Butler...
is the one i’m drooling over. And the one I think we have a truly realistic chance at. The Wiz really blew it by not taking Wally, IMO. not like they can’t find a suitable Jamison replacement at the top of the upcoming draft…
Too bad we didn’t get Chandler, ESPN’s Trade Machine says we could have given them the cap relief with McCants, Booth, & Collins. then we’d still have all those expirings next season…
Butler would be great for us...
Terrific all-around player…can put it on the floor, shoot the 3, defend….just a great NBA small forward. And his nickname is TUFF JUICE, which is absolutely awesome! He would definitely solve our 3 problem. And I can see why the Wiz would want to get rid of his contract , and we could absorb it (think he has 2 more years $10 mil +).
Pick up Tuff Juice, trade for Dalembert, and package a few #1’s for a top notch PG in the draft and we are in business Ladies and Gents.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
SnP
While I really enjoyed your analysis I’m not sure whether to rely on your take or Sid’s. I mean he did help the Lakers build a championship a few years ago so he clearly knows basketball. (jk)
Very well done piece. I don’t even like the NBA or watch the Wolves but I find myself coming here just to read the stories and watch the MN story unfold over the next few years.
Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball
Excellent article
that reinforces the idea that sometimes less is more.
The trade deadline was touted as an extravaganza a few weeks ago, but it seems many players in the market could get close enough to flll value to pull the trigger.
Opportunities, however, are diminishing. Draft day and the trade deadline in 12 months loom large for the profligate.
We have the pieces in place to make a splash. Get your swimmers on boys and girls and head for the 10 metre board.
SnP, one notable exclusion from your list of high salaried teams is Cleveland. Payroll of $90 million this year and from my recollection they may be in lux tax territory next year also. Bird rights for LeBron help out plenty, but is there any chance they try and cut the wage bill a bit once they get the great man on the hook again post 2010?
Good catch..
…with Cleveland. I wonder how much they will be influenced by what they think may happen to LeBron in 2010.
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