Winners
by Stop-n-Pop on Mar 28, 2009 8:41 AM CDT
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First of all, congrats to the Minnesota State Mavericks women's basketball team for winning their first D-II national championship. For those of you who watched the game (it was on at the same time as the Wolves on ESPN2), you were treated to one of the finest women's games you will ever see in your life. The final score was 103-94 with both teams combining for an eFG of .618% (including 16-34 from beyond the arc). The Mavs closed out the game on an 11-4 run to win the title. Yes, you could have been watching LeBron James but you also could have been watching up-tempo, competitive, hard-fought, and wonderful basketball in the D-II title game. You can read more about the game here.
The Mavs' victory means that Southern Minnesota is now home to three D-II national championships in the past 5 years (the Winona State men won in 2006 and 2008). Can we please get one of these programs (WSU or MSU) on the track to D-I status? North Dakota has 2 D-I teams and Iowa seems to have about a dozen; why can't Minnesota have more than 1?
As you can probably tell by now, I didn't catch the Wolves game last night. Earlier this season we Wolves fans were treated to the LeBron show at the Target Center and there was no reason to see a replay against a depleted team that has quit on the season. Instead of turning a game I didn't see into a stat sheet review or yet another long post on the state of the front office, let's finish up the Hoopus Draft board. You can read parts i (guards), ii (wings), and iii (bigs) by clicking on the links. Descriptions of the formula and its purpose are also contained in the previous posts. Remember, this is a formula that weighs relative worth in a specific year among 3 distinct player groupings. It is not a be-all/end-all formula (nor does it intend to be) and it should act only as a floor upon which a more complete player evaluation can be made. That being said, without access to scouting, player interviews, tons of film, and advanced data points collected by an outside agency, it is the best we can do and it represents our bottom to top BPA list for the Wolves. Let's get started:
Tier One:
- Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196-big). Griffin is the clear number one pick in a one man draft. He is light years ahead of any other player and should be taken, without question, by the Wolves with the number one pick.
- Cole Aldrich: 35/14.863 (49.863-big). Aldrich is a pure center with a massive wingspan and plenty of room on his frame to add weight. Unlike Thabeet, he appears to be comfortable playing on both ends of the court and could develop into exactly the type of pure center the Wolves have never had. Aldrich is also a hometown kid who would lock down the Wolves' 4/5 rotation for years to come.
- Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179-wing). In a weak one man draft the top picks in the draft will be based more on potential than results. While Derozan produced more than at first suspected, his potential is what places him at #3 on the board. For a 19 year old prospect with elite NBA size and athleticism, he produced rather well, especially considering his poor outside shooting and relatively weak handle. He got the job done at USC without even tapping into his potential. He also looks to be the type of player who can work his way into a team setting. He may not start right away but his upside is too hard to ignore.
- Evan Turner: 36.5/10.359 (47.009-wing). Turner does it all. Rebounding, passing, defense, getting to the rim, hitting mid-range shots...the guy is a fantastic player and is improving with each season. While he has said he intends to return to OSU, I'm keeping him on the list until draft declaration day.
- Tyreke Evans: 31.4/8.414 (39.814-guard). There is no other player in the draft with as much potential to change the complexion of the Wolves as Evans. A 6'6" guard with a 6'11.5" wingspan who can play on the ball isn't something that grows on trees. He can get into the lane at will and can finish at the rim. He also can't shoot from outside and turns it over a lot. The big question with Evans is this: His primary value to the Wolves would be to allow Randy Foye to stay off the ball. Can he play point in the NBA? If not, Derozan is the much more attractive option at the 2 or 2/3.
- Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803-guard). I don't need to recap my man crush on Curry's game here. Long time readers of this site know that I view him as one of the best players in college ball and I think he'll be an excellent pro.
- Al Farouq Aminu: 35.474/8.758 (44.233-wing). As you can see by this point in the list, potential is the name of the game in this year's draft. Unlike last year where there were several players who produced upon their potential, this year is more of a crap shoot. Aminu is a crap shoot. He has the length and athleticism to be something special as an NBA 3. He also can't shoot and hasn't done a whole lot in his freshman year. That being said, he did show some signs and he has the potential to be exactly the type of player the Wolves need at the 3. He, along with Evans, are the riskiest picks so far.
- James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793-guard). While Harden had a rough post season, his regular season numbers are simply too hard to ignore. He is a smart player who brings a lot to the table and would be hard to pass up at this point.
- Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4-big). OK, here he is. My gut tells me he will be completely ineffective at the next level and will be exposed beyond belief, but here he is, all 7'3" of him.
- DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403-big). Yes, I know the Wolves are undersized and stocked at this position already, but BPA is BPA is BPA.
Tier Two:
- Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668-guard). Have you seen the difference he makes with UNC's offense? The injuries are a bit of a concern, but Lawson has the potential to operate as something of a Super Bassy: an undersized guard with elite quickness and playmaking ability...except with a jump shot and better finishing in the lane.
- Nick Calathes: 33.3/10.575 (43.875-guard). My Calathes man crush is second only to Curry. I have no idea why this guy isn't further up the list on most draft boards. Size, playmaking ability, rebounding potential...what else do the Wolves want besides Bassy and Foye? Calathes is entering the draft but not hiring an agent at the moment.
- Terrence Williams: 26.775/11.06 (37.835-wing). Why sign Trevor Ariza when you can draft him?
- Eric Maynor: 32.875/9.558 (42.433-guard). A backup point with the ability to score. Maynor also has 4 college seasons under his belt and could contribute right away a'la Mario Chalmers.
- Jeff Teague: 35.525/7.813 (43.358-guard). Teague is the Blair of the back court. Undersized and already existing on the Wolves' roster. That being said...BPA.
Tier Three (no descriptions required):
- Jerome Jordan: 38.55/10.652 (49.202-big)
- Greg Monroe: 37.475/9.822 (47.297-big)
- Jordan Hill: 33.999/12.451 (46.45-big)
- Chase Budinger: 29.575/10.953 (40.528-wing)
- Damion James: 31.05/9.3 (40.35-wing)
- Gerald Henderson: 30.5/7.808 (38.308-guard)
- Kyle Singler: 31.525/9.666 (41.191-wing)
- Sam Young: 29.8/8.196 (37.996-wing)
- Lee Cummard: 30.6/11.359 (41.959-guard)
- Willie Warren: 30.55/5.625 (36.175-guard)
- Tyler Hansbrough: 39.375/13.766 (53.141-big)
- James Johnson: 29.375/10.77 (40.145-big)
- Marcus Thornton: 31.875/9.685 (41.156-guard)
- Toney Douglas: 31.25/8.842 (40.092-guard)
- Wayne Ellington: 27.3/8.828 (36.128-guard)
OK, that's 30 players for 30 first round spots. The Wolves will end up with at least 3 picks so that was the motivation for making 3 tiers. This draft is pretty thin but there are some decent players to be had later on in the draft, espcially in tier two. This is where the Wovles could pick up their backup (or eventual starting) point guard. We'll break things down a bit more as we get closer to the draft and we find out who declares and who does not, but this is the end-of-the-college season list. What say you?
Until later.
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Thanks for the list
I see two ways for this to go for the Wolves (assuming they pick at 5-6):
1. Take Evans with the first pick and the best remaining wing (Sam Young?) at 18.
2. Take Derozan first, and the best remaining point at 18 (probably Lawson/Calethes/Maynor or Flynn who I like).
The real alternative to this would be Aldrich, who was very impressive last night and, despite my occasional devil’s advocacy, looks like a player. I just have a hard time seeing him fit in the draft. I would be uncomfortable taking him 5th, but he won’t last until 18.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2009 10:02 AM CDT reply actions
Why uncomfortable taking Aldrich fifth?
He’s a legit NBA center with no serious holes in his game, and you take them when you can get them. If he stays in school, he’ll be in contention to go first overall next year unless another Superprospect like Griffin pops up.
by princelyfrank on Mar 28, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Because you can’t offer him more than 25mpg; which is little for someone you pick at nr 5. (among other reasons).
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Mar 28, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
If you can't justify taking
a “legit Center with no holes in his game” 5th because he will only get 25mpg, then how could you justify taking a Legit Center with huge holes in his game at that same spot, when by the same logic, he could only get 25 mpg?
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Mar 28, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, I'm not entirely sold on his
game, particularly on the offensive end. I’m comfortable that he’ll effectively take up space as a center; my preference is to take the guy most likely to become an all-star level performer, which I think is Evans or Derozan rather than Aldrich, though of course those guys come with more risk.
Further, as noted, there are limited minutes for him, or more to the point, the Wolves already have 2 talented rebounders on the front-line—clearly they need talent everywhere, but they have absolutely nothing resembling a high upside perimeter guy.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
that is a
much better argument. and I mostly agree. I would love to see us get a legit PG, more then any other position in this draft.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Mar 28, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
EiM, you make a good point
about Aldrich and this whole draft. With so many crapshoot players out there (many of whom are half of Kevin Ollie’s age, and a third of how old Brian Cardinal appears to be), it’s better to have several picks to throw against the wall, rather than one at, say, 14 that will make or break the entire draft for the team.
With that in mind, it’s also helpful to break down the players into potential vs. predictability, especially since I believe those factors weigh even heavier in the front office than they do with the fans (after all, in some NBA front offices, executives have actually been known to lose their jobs based on the success of their picks!).
1. Known entities: Griffin, Aldrich, Turner (if), Hardin, Blair, Curry, Teague, Calathes, Lawson, Maynor, Budinger, Henderson, Hansbrough
2. High(er) risk/reward: Rubio (if), DeRozan, Evans, Thaminu, Thabeet, Monroe
Assuming the Wolves will have at least three and possibly four chances to pick someone from the top 30 players, my guess is that the FO will make two safe picks (Wolves pick and Boston’s pick), and two rolls of the dice with the Miami pick and either Utah’s, or an early 2nd-rounder.
I might be tempted to put Curry
in the risk/reward catagory. he has a lot of upside, but because of his size, he has a lot of questionmarks.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
I see him kinda'
like thabeet in that way, only in revers. Thabeets upside comes entirely from his size, and not from his playmaking ability.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Mar 28, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
You're right
I should have hedged that breakdown into risk/reward/reliability, based on where they’re likely to be drafted. I’m assuming Curry would be picked somewhere in the bottom half of the first round. At that level, the cost of making an error in picking him is lower.
And interesting skill/size analogy to Thabeet. I think I could live with the Wolves picking one of them—just not both.
And I would rather
we take curry, then thabeet, in part because I think that it is easier for an undersized player to be productive if he has sound fundamentals, then for an oversized player with poor fundamentals.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Mar 28, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
At the point . . .
Assuming a couple things:
1. The Wolves don’t pick a PG with the first pick
2. They don’t sign/trade for a PG or wing (a la Ramon Sessions or Marvin Williams)
Couldn’t they do the following:
1. Pick the PG-of-the-future in the late first/early second round (Holiday, Collison, Calathes)
2. Sign Andre Miller to a two-year contract
This would allow the pick some time and room to mature, but get needed skills now at the point. No offense to Bassy, either—the hope is that he would be an off-the-bench player for the Wolves for the rest of his career—first to Miller, then to the blossoming young player. And Bassy can provide insurance against the young player failing, as well.
Andre Miller
might not be so easy to get. He’s still a valuable contributor for a team that’s actually interested in winning (aka not the Wolves). I’m still haunted by the rumors back in the day that Cleveland wanted to trade us Miller and some other sweeteners for Wally back on the night we drafted him. D’oh!
by princelyfrank on Mar 28, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Rubio (and Jennings)
were excluded because they are playing overseas, and SnP doesn’t apply the formula to non-U.S. College players.
yep...
…I have no idea what to look for in international players.
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www.canishoopus.com
As a side note, read this little thing on DX. Remember how young this guy is.
Rubio is one of the best pick and roll players you’ll find in basketball today, NBA or not. According to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified report, an astounding 62% of his offensive possessions come in this fashion.
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Mar 28, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
All bets are off
if Rubio is available. To me, that’s the jackpot. Getting a guy who is capable of more than holding his own in major international competitions and the top European leagues at 17-18 is a rare thing.
They will have to get lucky with the ping-pong balls to make that happen, though.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Beyond talent and potential
The Wolves so desperately need Rubio’s excitement and appeal to put some people in the seats, and exceed the 1700 viewers who are typically tuning in to local broadcasts of games.
Exactly,
For me, Rubio is the jackpot, and I would be more then willing to trade our whole draft board to get him, if he comes out.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Mar 28, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Imagine Love throwing outlet passes to Rubio
that would be fantastic to watch
by oblivionspocket on Mar 31, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Nope...
…if the last 8 years have taught me anything, it’s never too much to level that at someone. ;) I’m trying to work in a Michele Bachmann reference here but I just can’t come up with a good one. It’s good to see that Minnesota has someone working “behind enemy lines” in Congress. I wonder if she even knows what economic Marxism means. Last time I checked Obama was talking about the tax code, not taking over the means of production. Oh well.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Between her
the Franklin/Coleman debacle, and Jesse the Governor, it’s amazing how Minnesota went from decades of having semi-respectable statesmen as politicians, to the nationally-notorious Clownfest we now have.
it really is...
….kind of embarrassing.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
If we don't win the lottery...
I would trade all almost anything regarding our “expendable assets” for Rubio.
by College Wolf on Mar 30, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm on the Record for Rubio to be given a serious look at 1
This isn’t to say anything against Blake Griffin. Griffin clearly looks like he can be a 20-10 guy for a number of years. He’s apperars to be a better athlete than Love or Jefferson though not as skilled in other areas as Love or as creative a scorer as Jefferson. This team would own the Boards splitting the 4-5 minutes between Love, Jefferson, and Griffin. I would worry about how well Jefferson and Griffin would be together as they both are pretty dependent on the low-block.
The issue with Rubio though is you’re looking at player that at 18 years old is already the best passer and perimeter defender in the Spanish Pro League.
You’re looking at a guy with an ubelievable handle giving him the ability to get open in spite of non-freakish speed. I don’t want to use You Tubes as a definitve judge of talent but I like the Jason Kidd Comparsion in that he seems to have the possibility to develop into the type of player who could dominate a game scoring 10 points ,13 assists and 7 boards along with five steals.
His Presence would help the team in so many ways not limited to:
1. Giving Length at the 1 to play with Foye. (Although I’m unsure what type of investment to make in Foye next off-season)
2. Stop the offense from stagnating during the Ollie, Foye, Brown platter of backup points. Rubio and Bassy could hold down the fort at the 1 for 48 minutes a night. Rubio’s passing skills would make the whole offense more efficent.
3. If you’re front court of the future is going to be Jefferson and Love- you need perimeters defenders that are going to prevent teams for attacking the basket at will (For example see this season) Rubio’s length and ability to disrupt passing lanes would be huge in this area.
I see exactly what SNP is saying in regards to Griffin. Griffin isn’t the type of player- you would real comfortable passing on. What I see and read about Rubio is that he has more potential to truly change the fortunes of this franchise.
After Griffin and Rubio....
this draft is a total cluster$@!#$. I don’t know who to take in that entire spectrum of 3-9. Picking the Miami picks and beyond will be easier because there will be some good values that slip and we will have already set a positional tone with our first pick. But our lottery pick is a total crapshoot to me outside of 1 and 2 (assuming Rubio enters the draft).
I think I’m with the “swing for the fences” sentiment. If we miss out on one of those first two picks, pick the guy that has the most upside…..Someone from the DeRozan/Jennings/Evans/Aminu cadre. In evaluating those guys, you look at two things: Attitude and work ethic. They all have some pretty special physical tools and all have produced enough to demonstrate that their upside isn’t just slideware. Who ever is the hardest working leader of this bunch gets my pick. I want a guy that’s borderline dysfunctionally competitive….Someone that punches a hole in the locker room wall after a tough loss, but then proceeds to go out to an empty gym at 11:00PM and jack up a few hundred shots. That’s how the great ones got great.
Another hypothetical--
Team “A” gets the 2nd slot in this draft, Rubio comes out, and the Wolves are at, say, five. Team A calls up the Wolves and says, “You can have our pick in exchange for Love or Jefferson—your choice.”
Do you agree, and pick Rubio? If so, whom would you rather give up?
at this point?
Jefferson. He’s injured and there’s no guarantee of a return and if Rubio is THAT good, then I think that’s the move that should be made…especially if Aldrich is in and you can get him at 5. I’m not saying that I want Jefferson to be traded, but if something like this comes up, I think they make out like bandits with a core of Love, Aldrich, and Rubio compared to something like Love, Jefferson, and Derozan. You set the rebuilding back a year or two but in the long run, that would be amazing.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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Really?
I think if I get this offer, I would prefer to give up Love. Jefferson just has so much talent on the post. Then I think about taking Aldrich. Of course, this is ignoring the cap implications.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah...
….I think Love is going to be the business in a few years and I just don’t know how effective Jefferson will be coming back from an injury. That being said, I really hope he doesn’t go. I don’t think they’d ever trade him. He’s a fantastic player. In the end, I think Love ends up as the better player, by quite a bit.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
You're right about the cap implications
but in terms of the personnel involved from teams that are likely to be ahead of the Wolves, it’s not a completely impossible scenario. I think the Wiz and Kings want/need Rubio at least as desperately as the Wolves do. But Memphis has guards galore, and the Clippers are stuck with Baron Davis for the foreseeable future. Either team might see the benefit in adding a proven young 4ward instead of waiting to see if a teenaged point guard who’s never played college ball will one day be ready to lead a team.
To the RumorPhone!
It'd be funner 'n hell
to trot out a starting line-up of:
Rubio
DeRozan
Turner
Love
Aldrich
just to see how an NBA team with an average age of a college sophomore would do over a longer period of development.
would be fun...
wolves would need a solid veteran or two off the bench. Someone that the players would listen to.
i say Hinrich (via trade) and McDyess (free agent, lost his Bird rights with trade this year).
This will never happen, of course.
Evans' wingspan...
Is sucking me in. Even if he’s not a great shooter, he’s an athletic and much longer version of Marko Jaric who can draw fouls.
It’s definitely possible that two of the Tier 1 guys and a Tier 2 guy could end up in Wolves unis. I’m rooting against the Jazz to stay out of getting that 4th #1. If so, though, it could be 2 of each.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Mar 29, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions
i could have missed him
but i didnt see earl clark on there is he not coming out or is a second round pick? from what ive seen hes not a good shooter but that seems to be a problem with alot of guys in this draft (evans, derozan, etc) he seems super athletic and it looked like he could easily put on 20 pounds of muscle (like many young guys do when they make it to the NBA). he would definatly have to spend a lot of time on his shot but i saw him listed a G-F could he be a 2? anyway whats your thoughts?
No, Clark...
….he was way down on the list of wings.
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/3/24/808858/college-year-end-draft-boa
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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i saw that
but you dont think clark would be drafted in the first round? i know the guy has problems with his shot but unfortunatly wake lost right away so i wasnt able to see amino but have derozan or amino shown much an outside shot? besides being freshman what do they have over clark? i wouldnt consider him with the first pick but later he seems to have as much potenial as anyone
I think he will be drafted....
…but won’t do much. Of course, I don’t have anything but a stat sheet to make that claim, so take it with as many grains of salt as needed. He’s not a very efficient player.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Clark looked pretty ordinary against the Gophers...
but played a lot better in the times I saw him at the end of the season. He is a Tim Thomas-like talent…hopefully for his sake that’s where that comparison ends.
Aminu and DeRozan...
Also have a noticeable athletic edge over Clark. To me, he’s more a better version of guys like Damion James and Sam Young and way too similar to Gomes to be worth a shot. They need wings but need more diverse skills and talents at that position and generally lack athletes at every position. Plus, the only Pitino guy who ever became more than a role player was Jamal Mashburn, and Clark isn’t as athletic or skilled as Mashburn was.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Mar 30, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions
he's very frustrating to watch..
…he has all the tools in the world but never seems to put it together.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
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