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by Stop-n-Pop on Mar 5, 2009 6:00 AM CST
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PrintOne of the ongoing hot topics in Wolves land this year has been Mike Miller's reluctance to shoot the ball as he has in seasons past. Miller can lecture Strib reporters about James Naismith's favorite game until the cows come home to the Corn Palace, but the fact remains that he is averaging nearly 4 shots/game fewer this season than his career average.
There have been a few attempts at explaining why Miller is taking fewer shots; he's uncomfortable, he's trying to be a team player, he's coming up on a contract year and he's trying to take as many "safe" shots as possible, and so on and so forth. What we haven't seen being asked yet is this: Where is Miller taking fewer shots? Is there any particular spot on the floor where Miller is shooting less from than usual and what does this have to say about his game?
Without having access to any sort of internal team data set (or any league-wide extra data points), all we here at Hoopus have to go on is NBA Hot Spots. Here are the results from Miller's past 5 seasons:
2008:
2007:
2006:
2005:
2004:
First of all, it doesn't take much to see that this is Miller's worst year from the floor in terms of being an all-around threat. Only 2006 matches his relative inability (and we use that term very loosely) to hit from everywhere out there.
Secondly, in order to gain perspective on the reds and blues, we need to know what his favorite areas are and how many attempts/game he takes from effective areas.
Miller's favorite spots on the floor are the left and right wings beyond the arc, and inside. Let's plug in his games played and see what he averaged per game per year from these areas:
| right wing | left wing | inside | |
| 08 | .62 | 1.22 | 2.68 |
| 07 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 3.81 |
| 06 | 2.42 | 2.71 | 3.84 |
| 05 | 1.45 | 1.91 | 2.63 |
| 04 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 3 |
It's the right wing 3 folks. He's averaging a career low from the left wing as well, but it's not completely out of whack and without something of a precedent as is his current performance from the right wing. Why is he not taking shots from the right wing beyond the arc? I don't have an answer to that question. In this 5 year span he is averaging .424% on 547 shots. This year he is shooting a 5-year low of .355% from that spot so that probably has something to do with it, but he's still shooting relatively well from that spot this year compared to his other long-distance zones.
I think the main cause for this phenomenon is that Al Jefferson is a dominant player on the left side of the court. It's where he lives and thrives, and if the Wolves were going to run an in-out game with Miller and Big Al, it would be on the side of the court that Big Al is most comfortable on. We obviously don't have the type of data it would require to complete a full study on the subject, but perhaps we can come up with a simple theory: Miller is a "right handed" type of player--someone who is more comfortable operating on the opposite side of the court as the Wolves' best player, who is a "left handed" type of guy. I'm sure the answer to this question is much more complex, but this is as close to a stat-based theory we can come up with considering the available data.
What say you?
UPDATE: In a bit of serendipity True Hoop put up a post from Basketball Geek about shooting percentages, lineups, and location. We'll dig through the data he posted on the page and see what we can find concerning Miller and his teammates.
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I think you are on to something. If I’m coaching the Wolves (pre Al’s Injury) I can see the inside out possibility from a mile away. And with Al being a mechanical passer at best, I can stop it cold. Find your shots elsewhere Mr. Miller.
however,
Big Al is not in the line up, so he shouldn’t have to worry too much about that inside out on the left hand side nearly as much right now, but he still is not taking his shots.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
The explanation sounds very plausible. So when looking for our new starting 3 a leftie 3point shooter should be bonus points. Who’s on that list?
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
I don't know....
….This is one of those cases where I really, really hope the team keeps robust internal stats. What I have here is very, very incomplete and would require a number of additional metrics to make it really worthwhile. On/off would be a good start, as would 2 and 5 man lineups. It would also help to break down catch and shoot vs. dribble/shoot situations. We would then have to compare it to past seasons with Miller to see if he’s really underpeforming in situations where he does get the ball back from Big Al, or when he does get a catch and shoot that he should knock down. Is his career low in attempts and percentage from that spot due to him being placed in situations where he is not an optimal shooter? We’d need to know a few additional things to really answer that question. I do think it is, as you say, plausible.
Another interesting question is whether or not right/left handed players matter. Here is where I think NBA Hot Zones really fail. There is no reason on god’s green earth why they can’t load a massive amount of data into a 1/2 court graphic and then let folks create their own zones and then pick from a number of stat categories to populate that zone. From rebounds to shot attempts to steals, it’s not hard to put down where it happened and to let folks search accordingly. I’d love to see which 5 man units perform better left than right and vice versa. I’d love to see how players balance the court in terms of rebounding. I think one thing that is really, really, really criminally overlooked in NBA stat keeping is player positioning. I can tell you that my favorite place to shoot from on the floor is the left corner. I can tell you that I’m most effective in the lower left side of the court where I can use the baseline. I think these sort of preferences exist in the NBA and that they are quantifiable and that NBA Hot Zones drops the frickin’ ball with what they could have as a tool.
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Nice Work
Very good analysis. The only problem I see with the Jefferson theory is that you would have expected Millers shot attempts to have gone up after Jefferson went down, since he could have got more tounches from the left side of the floor. So, I think Jefferson is only part of it. I think Miller it is more of a conscious decision by Miller for good or bad. I think he thinks this is the best way to extend his career by working on his all around game. I think hes wrong too and has yet to see the light.
I mean
he could have gotten more touches from the right side of the floor after Jefferson went down.
this is where..
…on/off stats for specific parts of the court would really come in handy.
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the stats might be expected to show more touches from the right side of the floor
but at the same time you’d expect that after half a season playing with al, a set of habits will have set in that make miller a different player. he’s accustomed to certain al-centric patterns that he’d still be locked into for a while until the habits are broken. even if we were to expect those habits to fade now with al out it would probably not be immediately reflected as an automatic correlation.
by secretarykissinger on Mar 5, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
super interesting post by the way!
by secretarykissinger on Mar 5, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, that's probably true,
but, you still got to wonder why his habits were so easily broken upon his arrival with the Timberwolves this year. He immediately went into a pass first, drive and dish, shoot last player upon becoming a TImberwolf.
Hey- in another bit of synergy:
Our main man Aschy has taken up the task of examining the reluctant Miller, nice to see someone else picking up the meme.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/steve_aschburner/03/05/mike.miller/index.html
"I take what's there. It's called basketball; James Naismith invented it a long time ago.''
That sounds like a player lost
he must've been having a bad day
seems kind of miserable in general.
by oblivionspocket on Mar 5, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions
he said that to Brian Stensaas of the Strib -
I remember reading about it, here I think, must have been a few months ago. I agree, he must have been having a crap day.
by plinytheelder on Mar 5, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions
GASOL
He played his entire career with Pau Gasol, who is just as much a true post player as Jefferson is. Whether or not he specialised on the left block I am not sure.
This also doesnt explain why he has decided to become a dribble drive player/ pass first point. As a NBA veteran playing under the coaching of a HOF Player/Coach he must surely know he must stick to what the does/knows best.
I don't know man -
I mean, this is a really interesting post, and in a certain way it sounds plausible. But think about the way you play – I don’t know what your game’s like, but are you really more comfortable shooting, say, from the left elbow than the right elbow? Or from one baseline than another? Maybe I’m just a jacker but I’d like to think I’ll heave it up from anywhere – I don’t care if it’s from the left or the right.
I don’t know, maybe everyone has preferred spots on the floor that they’re not even aware of, I’m sure I unconsciously like certain spots more than others…but when you’re as good a shooter as Miller? The guy is literally one of the great shooters of his generation…do you think he really cares where he shoots from?
on a related note
don’t choose me for your pickup team…unless you don’t feel like seeing the ball! ;)
by plinytheelder on Mar 5, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
I for one am sure if got some spots that I’m way more comfortable shooting from. I can imagine the same goes for a player in the NBA though the difference between shots is probably smaller for him…
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Mar 6, 2009 3:24 AM CST up reply actions
Observations
After crunching some of the shot selection numbers and adding a few more from basketball-reference.com, I found a few things which may or may not mean anything:
- I thought his reduced minutes might affect the number of shots he was taking, but no. His per-36 minutes FGA’s are 8.4 for this season, and 12.4 for the previous four years
- His rebound and assist numbers are up; the per-36 numbers are 6.9 & 4.6 this season, opposed to 5.7 & 3.5 the previous four seasons. I think the assist increase could be an indication that he is trying to be a team player and give up a couple of shots per game for someone else’s open 3, but I don’t think it completely explains the drop in shots.
- Grouping his FGA’s by distance (by the basket, short jumpers, mid-range jumpers and 3-point shots) we get this breakdown of his shots (# of shots on a per-36 basis):
———-04-08 08-09 04-08 08-09 04-08 08-09
-————shots% ——-#/shots ———FG%
Close: 28.5 —36.1 —3.5 —3.0 —.621 —.672
Short: —3.8 —-3.2 —0.5 —0.3 —.346 —.167
Mid: 22.5 —19.5 —2.8 —1.6 —.456 —.500
3pt: 45.1 —41.3 —5.6 —3.5 —.417 —.363
The number of shots are down everywhere, regardless of distance, and when he does decide to shoot, he’s taking a few less 3’s and mid-rangers and driving to the basket more. But what really sticks out for me is that 3pt%; he’s having his worst shooting season behind the arc (ignore that .167 from short range, as it’s off a very small 2-12 sample). He’s still managing an excellent .570 eFG thanks to his .672 shooting % around the basket. Although he’s going to the basket more when he does shoot, those numbers don’t have the makeup of someone who’s playing it safe and taking easy shots. If I were in a contract year, I’d be jacking up shots everywhere and raising my scoring average.
- We’ve seen he’s not shooting 3’s from the right wing, but is it affecting his game? Here are his breakdowns from the five 3pt areas:
—————04-08 08-09 04-08 08-09
——————-shots% -——-FG%
L corner: —-2.3 —-3.9 —.368 —.333
L wing: —17.1 —16.6 —.416 —.333
Middle: —-7.4 —-9.2 —.409 —.343
R wing: —15.4 —-8.4 —.428 —.375
R corner: —-3.1 —-3.2 —.423 —.583
Again, don’t put much stock in the right corner % due to the sample size (7-12). Obviously, he’s struggling from all areas behind the arc, so I don’t necessarily think the drop in shots from the right wing means much, regardless of the reason.
- One more chart, this time breaking down all shots (except the close shots) by left, middle and right sides of the floor:
————-04-08 08-09 04-08 08-09
—————shots% ————FG%
Left: —29.6 —27.1 —.415 —.369
Middle: —12.5 —17.6 —.425 —.463
Right: —29.4 —19.2 —.437 —.370
I’m not sure if it’s a conscious decision or the flow of the Wolves offense or Big Al’s influence, but Miller’s lost a lot of shots on the right side and replaced them with shots from the middle of the floor (and under the basket). He seems to be a little better shooter going left to right around the floor, but looking at the right side FG% along with the drop in shots, it’s definitely possible he’s been made uncomfortable in the offense somehow.
My two cents, for what it’s worth: I think he’s maybe been made uncomfortable in his shot selection, and coupled with a bad shooting season (FG% is the most variable stat from year to year) he maybe isn’t taking his normal shots and instead is passing more.
by SL9 on Mar 6, 2009 7:02 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
excellent stuff..
….thanks a bunch for putting all of that together. That 10% drop off on the right side of the floor is pretty interesting. As is his massive drop off from everywhere but the middle of the court.
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