After 60
by Stop-n-Pop on Mar 9, 2009 6:00 AM CDT
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PrintOK, it's that time of the season again. Time to check in on stats, stats, stats!!! Here are the big indicators we're keeping track of:
Click below the fold to read the rest.
As you can see from the above chart, things are really starting to fall off for OBZs. The defensive numbers are the most notable. Not only has the team fallen behind the defensive numbers of 08 Witt Ball, it has made its way past last year's putrid effort. There has been some offensive improvement but not nearly enough to make up for what is going on in the defensive half court.
eFG is still on its way up but not yet above last year's level. OReb% is slowly going down but so is the opponents' numbers in that category. The free throw gap hasn't changed enough to write home about it. All in all, this thing is coming off the rails because of defense.
Here are the team's shooting stats after 40:
| 62% | .411 | 63% | 42.5 | 68% | .456 | 59% | 49.3 | ||
| 33% | .541 | 47% | 29.8 | 26% | .565 | 49% | 23.7 | ||
| 3% | .921 | 67% | 4.3 | 5% | .942 | 78% | 6.8 | ||
| 2% | .548 | 0% | 2.1 | 2% | .620 | 0% | 1.6 | ||
| 100% | .471 | 55% | 78.8 | 100% | .509 | 56% | 81.5 | ||
Here they are after 60:
Shooting Details
| 62% | .425 | 63% | 44.2 | 68% | .465 | 61% | 50.6 | ||
| 32% | .539 | 47% | 29.1 | 26% | .572 | 49% | 24.0 | ||
| 3% | .931 | 68% | 5.0 | 5% | .954 | 78% | 7.1 | ||
| 2% | .538 | 0% | 1.9 | 1% | .549 | 0% | 1.3 | ||
| 100% | .481 | 56% | 80.3 | 100% | .516 | 58% | 83.0 | ||
The big thing to take note of here is that the Wolves have seen the biggest change in jump shots--both their own and their opponents. There is a 3 point net swing since the 40 game mark on jump shots.
Here is the team's positional net production after 40:
| -1.7 | -.070 | -1.0 | 0% | -1.7 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -2.0 | -4.8 | -6.9 | |
| 1.0 | -.001 | 0.0 | 5% | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 1.3 | +0.8 | |
| -3.2 | -.037 | -2.7 | -2% | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -6.4 | -5.6 | |
| -0.3 | -.044 | 0.5 | 19% | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -1.6 | -2.1 | |
| 7.6 | -.046 | 2.0 | -2% | 1.0 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 7.6 | +3.6 |
After 60:
Net Production by Position
| -0.7 | -.067 | -1.2 | 1% | -2.0 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -4.0 | -6.9 | |
| 0.6 | -.026 | -0.1 | 4% | 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.0 | |
| -3.4 | +.007 | -2.3 | 1% | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -5.1 | -3.6 | |
| -0.4 | -.035 | 0.0 | 12% | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -2.6 | |
| 6.9 | -.059 | 1.8 | 2% | 2.4 | -0.6 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 6.6 | +3.4 |
NBA position rankings
After 40:
| PG | 28 | 26 | 30 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 12.7 | 19.6 | 30 |
| SG | 12 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 11 |
| SF | 29 | 25 | 10 | 17 | 16 | 28 | 11.5 | 17.1 | 29 |
| PF | 21 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 16.6 | 18.7 | 24 |
| C | 2 | 25 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 21.5 | 17.9 | 8 |
After 60:
Minnesota Timberwolves
| PG | 28 | 26 | 30 | 21 | 17 | 25 | 11.9 | 18.8 | 29 |
| SG | 17 | 21 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 21 |
| SF | 29 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 13.1 | 16.8 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 15 | 16.5 | 19.1 | 26 |
| C | 2 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 22.7 | 19.3 | 6 |
What you should take home from these comparisons is that the Foye Effect from games 20-40 is over. You can also see that Ryan Gomes has stepped up his play and Kevin Love has remained consistent.
Top 5-man floor units After 40:
Top Five-Man Floor Units
| Telfair-Foye-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 166 | 1.16 | 1.06 | +33 | 7 | 8 | ||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 126 | 1.04 | 1.12 | -10 | 6 | 8 | ||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson-Collins | 102 | 0.95 | 1.02 | -13 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Ollie-Foye-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 83 | 1.10 | 1.11 | +0 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Foye-Miller-Brewer-Gomes-Jefferson | 74 | 1.00 | 1.05 | -9 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Foye-McCants-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 59 | 0.96 | 1.14 | -22 | 2 | 7 | ||
| Telfair-Miller-Brewer-Love-Jefferson | 48 | 1.30 | 1.19 | +8 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Love-Jefferson | 48 | 0.90 | 1.28 | -36 | 4 | 9 | ||
| Ollie-Foye-Gomes-Love-Jefferson | 46 | 1.26 | 1.12 | +15 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Telfair-Foye-Gomes-Love-Jefferson | 38 | 0.92 | 1.01 | -2 | 6 | 7 | ||
After 60:
Top Five-Man Floor Units
| Telfair-Foye-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 262 |
1.15 | 1.12 | +22 |
10 |
12 |
||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 137 |
1.04 | 1.11 | -6 |
7 |
8 |
||
| Telfair-Foye-Miller-Gomes-Love | 134 |
1.23 | 1.25 | +8 |
8 |
4 |
||
| Telfair-Foye-Gomes-Love-Jefferson | 109 |
1.08 | 1.07 | +11 |
11 |
10 |
||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson-Collins | 102 |
0.95 | 1.02 | -13 |
3 |
4 |
||
| Ollie-Foye-Gomes-Smith-Jefferson | 83 |
1.10 | 1.11 | +0 |
4 |
5 |
||
| Telfair-Foye-Miller-Gomes-Jefferson | 77 |
1.25 | 1.06 | +25 |
9 |
5 |
||
| Foye-Miller-Brewer-Gomes-Jefferson | 74 |
1.00 | 1.05 | -9 |
3 |
5 |
||
| Foye-Miller-Gomes-Love-Jefferson | 71 |
0.88 | 1.30 | -58 |
6 |
13 |
||
| Foye-Carney-Miller-Cardinal-Love | 69 |
1.16 | 1.08 | +12 |
9 |
5 |
Team Four Factors
After 40:
| Team Four Factors | ||||||||||||||
| PACE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||||||||||||
|
TYPE
|
||||||||||||||
|
STAT
|
91.9 | 105.5 | 47.3 | 15.3 | 29.0 | 22.3 | 109.4 | 50.7 | 14.4 | 25.6 | 25.2 | |||
|
RANK
|
12 | 22.5 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 10 | 21 | |||
After 60
| Team Four Factors | ||||||||||||||
| PACE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||||||||||||
|
TYPE
|
||||||||||||||
|
STAT
|
92.5 | 106.2 | 47.9 | 15.6 | 28.5 | 22.7 | 111.2 | 51.6 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 25.9 | |||
|
RANK
|
11 | 23 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 6 | 24 | |||
Here are the squad's player stats after 40:
After 60:
All in all, Love, Miller, and Gomes are the only guys on this squad who have maintained an upward trajectory over the last 20 games. Foye has really leveled out, especially since the loss of Big Al. The rest of the roster is playing pretty much as expected.
There are a few new things that I want to keep track of from here on out. First, Kevin Pelton has some fantastic new information up over at Basketball Prospectus. Here is the information pulled from the team page:
Next year we'll keep track of BP's excellent player card stats as well.
Well that about does it for the 60 game wrap up. We'll post another one of these at the end of the year with some charts detailing the ups and downs of individual players and the team. Right now it looks like the Wolves are reverting to last year's version of themselves. It is across the board ugly and getting worse. Does anything jump out at you?
Until later.
PS: As always we thank the following sites for their excellent stat work:
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Thanks for the update
One thing that maybe should be mentioned is that Jefferson was done after game 50, so the 3rd quarter stats are half with him, half without.
The first thing that jumps out to me are the big drop in the defensive stats (DE, deFG, Pts Against & dTO). I’m not surprised by this; I swear every Wolves box score I see these days has the opponent hitting 55% FG’s and 45% on 3’s. Since the loss of Big Al’s defense doesn’t seem to be the cause, it kinda looks like the rest of the team is bulking up their offensive resumes and relaxing just a bit on defense. Judging by their opponents increasing their jump shot % and decreasing their OffReb %, the new defensive philospohy must be ‘let them shoot from anywhere, but you better get that rebound’.
Those defensive PER’s are scary; we’re letting everyone play 2-4 PER pts better than they are. Since 15 is average, essentially we make an average SG or SF look like a good starter, and an average PF, PF & C look like a borderline all-star. To put it a more frighting way, Rodney Stuckey, Andray Blatche & Joel Przybilla would be all-star candidates if they played every game against us. Think about that.
It’s obvious that things are getting worse; in fact it could get Jimmy Rodgers ugly. I hope those extra ping-pong balls pan out.
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