I finally made sense of the draft
by PoorDick on Apr 14, 2009 10:24 AM CDT
25 comments
by basing each pick on position, instead of the players. Even though it's thought to be a weak draft, with no known quantities after Griffin, the current consensus on the players groups them by position, and around slots that dovetail nicely with the Wolves' picks.
This is assuming the Wolves keep their current picks, and don't luck out in the lotto. It also assumes that two of my favorite players (Cole Aldrich and Evan Turner) remain committed to returning to school, rather than opting out for the League. Finally, it assumes the Wolves don't acquire a starter via trade or free agency (a safer assumption than I would wish), and that AlJeff comes back in full form.
With that in mind, here is the order in which they could proceed:
1. Wolves pick (mid-lotto): Big guard Take DeRozan, Evans, or Harden, in that order of preference. Harden's rated higher than the first two, but DeRozan may wow 'em in the workouts.
2. Heat pick (high teens): Small guard Take Curry, Maynor, Lawson, Holiday, Jennings, Flynn, or Teague--again, in that order. Curry probably won't be available at this point, and Lawson may surprise by going higher than projected. But the rest should be available.
3. Celtics pick (high twenties): Center Solomon Alabi fits the athletic defender who would complement the Love/Jeff situation at the four. Jerome Jordan says he's returning to Tulsa, but could be convinced to come out with a first-round assurance. Andrew Olgivy and B.J. Mullens are polar opposites. The former is a heady Andrew Bogut type with less athleticism. The latter comes across as an immature jerk, yet one who has a ton of upside.
4. Second round pick (depends): Best player left Hopefully, it's Calathes, who would be willing to stay in the draft after being picked in the 2nd round. Same goes for Gani Lawal, Jarvis Vornado, Devin Ebanks, Toney Douglas, Danny Green, or Jodie Meeks. And this team could do worse than generate the positive publicity sure to come if they were to throw a bone to Ben Woodside.
Whew! That's a relief to have that out of the way. Now we all can return to less important matters, like family, friends, work, and school.
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My dream/nightmare
Dream:
1. Rubio or Griffin
2. Aldrich comes out, and slides
3. Evan Turner comes out, and slides even further
4. Calathes is available in the 2nd round, and is excited to play with the Wolves.
Then the Wolves new, smart front office signs/trades expiring contracts and Craig Smith for a bona fide starting PG and C. Who are meshed perfectly with the new coach’s efficiency-based philosophy.
Nightmare:
1. Harden
2. Teague
3. B.J. Mullens
4. The 2nd rounder is spent on an overseas player who will never grace our shores
Then Stack consults with still-coach McHale and Papa Glen, and they decide that there’s more than enough talent on this roster to at least get back to the playoffs, so why waste money on free agents and longer contracts for established veterans.
Completely agree....
….on the nightmare draft. That would be disastrous. At this point, short of Griffin or Rubio, I’m all about Evans with the top pick. I think it allows them to keep Foye in the starting lineup for now and…well, I have no idea if he can play the point or not but I don’t care. He’s a big guard who can create on his own and that is exactly what this squad needs one way or another. He instantly changes the rotation more than any other player in the draft.
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www.canishoopus.com
One man's nightmare
is another man’s dream come true. Not real hip on Teague or Mullens (although both could turn out to be good players), but any draft that nets a player who has a chance to be an all-star is a GREAT draft. Harden is that player. Don’t let all the negative talk about him fool you. He is the real deal. If we don’t get Wall or Rubio, then I want EITHER Harden or Curry. We need to try to nab a cold blooded scorer out of this draft, and either one of those guys fits the bill. That being said, I wouldn’t want them both (although I wouldn’t be upset) because I think we need a hard nosed defender on the perimeter and if we get either of these players, the other guard will need to be a good defender. So, for me, if we don’t get Wall/Rubio, and we’re drafting around 5, I would be happy with:
1. Harden
2. Evans (some still view him as a mid teen pick) or Flynn (hope he comes out, he’s hard nosed)
3. Trade up with 2nd round pick and get James Johnson.
If we don’t trade up then DuJuan Summers with our 3rd pick and Tony Douglas or AJ Price with our 2nd rounder.
The more PG’s we can get into camp increases the chance that we get one that pans out. I still feel like we could make a trade for a big. The bigs in this draft just don’t thrill me.
But if Harden is gone, then we need to target Curry. So then we go:
1. DeRozan
2. Curry
3. same as above
That’s my take and I’m stickin’ to it….
I'm feelin' it on Evans and the (complimentary) Curry,
but Harden leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I look at his numbers and I say, “Points from the perimeter! Awwright!” But then I watched him play a half-dozen times and I don’t think his feet left the floor once. The Wolves are too limited athletically to go with one more too-slow-too-short guy with that top pick. I could be wrong on Harden, though, due to the fact that he seems to suffer from Greg Odenitis, and looks to be about 43 years old (it’s the beard, right?).
Is James Johnson Gary Trent 2.0 (now with passable 3-point range!)? I love the idea of Johnson MMFing the rest of the league into submission, but there was something fundamentally wrong with that Wake Forest team that had 3-4 possible lotto picks on the roster, but was bounced from the NCAAs in the first round.
Harden
is just so smooth that he looks like he’s not quick or athletic, but he is. You’re right about the beard. Needs to lose that. Stubble yes, full beard? For lumberjacks. James Johnson is a player who has the potential to be a draft steal. Of course I’m basing this on 3 games I actually watched him play in this year, 2 of which he was unguardable from everywhere on the court. He was hitting 3’s, midrange, and drove to the hoop with nice moves and finished. I saw plenty of footspeed in those games, so that encourages me. That is my main concern about him because I’m hoping he’ll play SF. They played him down low quite a bit but I am hoping he will turn out to be our SF stud that a lot of teams have. A big SF who has the size and length to guard the legit SF’s in this league (LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, et al). I just have this feeling about him. I could be wrong. Ya that was strange seeing WF go out like that. Had to be a chemistry thing. Not sure.
Agreed, great summary.
Except -1 for not linking Hoopus’ draft pag :)
http://www.canishoopus.com/pages/draft-info
www.canishoopus.com
Wow :(
I regret to say that until this post, I had not perused canis hoopis draft site. What a sad statement of a franchise. I know not every draft pick is going to be a hit, but WOW. . .I recognize most of the names and even remember some of them being decent in college, but . . . wow, what terrible luck choices were made through the years. Is there even an NBA caliber starting 5 there? Are there 5 NBA players there? Hopefully we will turn the corner with last years draft and move forward.
I do like being able to see each years picks set up like that. Good job!!
Sometimes the obvious is hidden.
Go with the upside pick all the way through.....
I think you throw positional need out the window (except may be PF) and go with whoever you think has the best chance of becoming a superstar, even if they have higher bust potential than another pick. Go with the upside guys.
So with the lotto pick, I’m pretty much in lockstep with what you have there. Harden is the safest pick of the three, but also has the lowest ceiling, so I think having him third in your pecking order there makes sense.
With the Miami pick, I’m almost in lockstep with you there as well. I might move Jennings up a few notches, but otherwise it looks good. Curry worries me, but if he can orchestrate an offense, he could become the next Steve Nash. I mean, the guy had NO breathing room at Davidson whereas in the NBA he should have way more open looks. And his range is incredible.
With the Boston pick, I think again you go with a guy that could potentially surprise at the next level. Jermaine Taylor is someone DX has been touting lately. Sam Young could turn into nice scoring SF that can also help on the boards and defend. I just don’t think any big man that falls that far is worth the pick. Go with a PG/SG/SF where the likelihood of wildly exceeding expectations at the next level seems more plausible as opposed to a project big man.
We desperately need more stars on this team and if that means we have to use our three first rounders on perimeter guys, then so be it. I think your draft generally fits that philosophy with the first two picks while at the same time helping us out in positions of need, but then strays too much toward positional need with the third pick.
The only concern I have
The only thing that makes me nervous about your argument (which I agree with) is the interpretation of ‘upside’ guys. We already drafted Ndudi Ebi, who had lots of ‘potential’ and ‘upside.’ If we could just make the Wolves draft the best players available, with legit upside potential, instead of guys with lots of athleticism or physical attributes (ahem, Thabeet, ahem) but little basketball awareness or IQ to go with it, then I think we will be OK. Or at least I could live with that. McCants didn’t pan out, but at least the guy could legitimately play when he got time.
Upside clarification
I hear you on your concern. I think you consider a number of factors when looking at upside.
To put a very primitive formula together on determining upside, it might look something like this:
Physical profile rating (on a scale of 1 to 10)
+
Statistical production of latest season of college ball (on a scale of 1 to 10. You could use SnP’s rating system and translate it.)
+
Character rating through interviews and background checks (on a scale of 1 to 10)
-
Age factor (subtract 2 points for every year over the age of 19)
Here is my rough estimate of DeRozan vs. Harden using this formula:
DeRozan:
Physical Profile = 10 (6"6 2-guard that can jump out of the gym and has a frame that could add more weight. ’Nuff said)
Stat Production = 7 (gross approximation. Gotta love the FG%, solid free throw rate, and boardwork.)
Character Rating = 7 (I really have no idea, but gave him a high mark based on how he fit right into USC without reports of being a prima donna).
Age Factor = No points taken off
Total Score = 24
Harden:
Physical Profile = 6 (shorter, slower, and less hops than DeRozan. Overall has decent size and strength so put him slightly above average here.).
Stat Production = 9 (tough to argue with the numbers he put up at USC. Stellar.)
Character Rating = 8 (seems like a highly unselfish, team-oriented guy.).
Age Factor = No points taken off (he’s young for his class)
Total Score = 23
That’s really sloppy, but hopefully you get my drift. As far as Thabeet is concerned, his physical attributes are both a blessing and a curse. His length and reasonably good mobility allow him to be an elite shotblocker. On the other hand, he has a narrow frame and high center of gravity, making him really easy to root out of the paint and knock him off balance. So although some may say he should be given a 9 or 10 on the physical profile rating, I’d probably give him more like a 7 or 8 because I think he’s going to have some matchups in the NBA that can just go right into his chest and take him out of plays, therefore mitigating his shotblocking ability.
by Rascal Flatts on Apr 15, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Wolves backcourt
Agree with PD on draft ideas, but I’d put Evans at the top of the list for #6 and Lawson for #18. Actually, I’d like to see the wolves use that 3rd 1st rounder to move up in the draft. On second round pick, the McNeil kid from Marquette could end up replacing (improving upon) Foye. I like his upside…
Lawson at #18 would be great.
The Wolves desperately need size, though. Outside of undersized C Big Al and undersized PF K-Love the Wolves have nothing in the frontcourt. Unfortunately, this draft is short on bigs. Jordan Hill and Greg Monroe look the part but don’t excite. I like Cole Aldrich a lot. We’ll still be able to get guards with these later picks, but the pickings will be slim for bigs.
If we can get Rubio
I don’t care what else happens, I’ll be elated. It would be the summer of my life. I’d live on one of the beaches in Minneapolis until the 4th of July, just soaking in all that nature and the world can offer, appreciating life. Then I would buy a school bus, paint it Timberwolves blue and put a loudspeaker on top, traveling across the country telling everyone in every town about the promise the Wolves have for the future. Maybe put some of Kevin Love’s statistics on the back and show how they compare to other rookies historically. I’d have a TV and a VCR on board to show all the children highlights of Rubio and Jefferson, then have them write essays about the possibilities that exist with the two of them playing together. I’d end the journey at the site of Woodstock on the 40th anniversary of Hendrix doing “The Star Spangled Banner,” and I would meditate in a Spanish national team jersey in that very spot, at very time that he gave that performance. Then it would be back to Minneapolis, where I would live in a box outside the Target Center until opening night. Maybe Sonia would let me into some shows for free at First Ave so I wouldn’t be totally bored. In my spare time I will write poetry about Ricky and try to sell the poems for a dollar a piece.
If we get Harden or whatever, I’ll probably just take some classes at school, go visit my parents, etc.
by museum on Apr 24, 2009 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
eheh…
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Apr 24, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
we will be waiting for the painted bus
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I will . . .
Have the kids lined up and a large screen set up in one of the hollers down here when you come by museum. Just let me know the date & time!!
RU-B-OOOOO!!
RU-B-OOOOO!!
And a child shall lead them. . .
Sometimes the obvious is hidden.
by frankenhoops on Apr 28, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Woodside
I’d be cool with that, watching him take on Kansas in the tournament made me think he actually has a pretty good shot of making it. He can flat out play.
woodside
he looked really good against a top point guard and i definatly wouldnt mind drafting him but when people are talking about drafting him is that because a team later would draft him or just cuz he’s from minnesota?
I agree...
He struggled at Portsmouth against fringe NBA draft prospects. There’s nothing wrong with his college career, but that doesn’t always translate to the NBA.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Apr 27, 2009 3:22 PM CDT reply actions
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