On the draft
by McCleak on Apr 15, 2009 11:55 PM CDT
21 comments
First, the more I look at the draft, the less I like the Wolves choices with their first pick. If they stay at the 5 they're in a complete and utter crapshoot. With that in mind, I would like to discuss Tyreke Evans. First, I think people should stop by Draft Express and compare Tyreke Evans and Derrick Rose. They're very comprable players, right down to their listed strengths and weaknesses. In fact, the only areas of noticable difference are: 1) Rose has better assist numbers than Evans. That's pretty straight-forward though I'd note that Evans didn't play PG for the half (except for that half-season, Evans has always played PG, so the learning curve isn't as steep as, say, Randy Foye's); 2) Evans has much better steal and rebound numbers, and seems like a noticably better defender; and 3) Evans has SG height and length.
Now, think for a moment what the Wolves would be like if they had someone who could, potentially, be a stronger defender at the 1 and the 2. Now, add him in with Brewer, so that Brewer guards the best shooters while Evans guards the PG and helps Foye (or hopefully Josh Childress, but probably Randy Foye) with Foye. Doesn't that solve a lot of the perimeter defensive problems? Wouldn't that give them a lot of flexibility on floor, and the chance to actually push advantageous matchups in the backcourt? Hell, is it possible that Jefferson and Love would look a bit less foolish guarding the pivot if the perimeter didn't leak like a sieve? Finally, I would like to point out that Evans' increase in production occurred when he took over at point. Also, that's when Memphis went on it's strong end of year win-streak leading into the tournament.
As for DeMar DeRozan, take a look at Draft Express' best and worst case scenarios. Make sure you have a garbage basket handy in case you feel ill.
Finally, I was wondering if someone could put John Bryant into the Hoopus score system and report the results? I realize he comes out of a weaker conference, but looking at his numbers and size, I have to think he has second-round steal potential possibility.
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Good Thoughts
I can’t describe myself as an expert on John Bryant by any means. His stats certainly look impressive. What I have heard is that he isn’t mobile by any means and he isn’t what considered a great defender. This is why he isn’t real touted as a NBA prospect. He could possibly fill a back-up 5 role in the league I suppose. I just am unsure that he’s the type of player the Wolves will or should target.
Evans is clearly intriguing if the Wolves are picking in the 5-7 range. I also wonder why scouts questions his ability to play the point in the NBA considering ball-handling and ability to create for others.
Josh Childress should be a very high target for the Wolves considering their needs. Here’s a great article about Childress from PeachTree Hoops:
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2008/9/19/617780/review-preview-team-offens
You also make the point if you’re playing a backcourt of Childress, Brewer and Evans- the Defense looks miles better as a whole. Offensively you’d probably have issues stretching the floor. This is why intrerpresing these guys with shooters like Gomes and Foye would be important.
Your 100 percent correct in the reason Jefferson and Love look so bad in the pivot is because of the perimeter Defense. Let’s use a team like Boston as a comparsion when you have perimeter defenders like Pierce and Rondo- you’re way more capable of giving players like Big Baby minutes.
As far as Derozan’s DX Comparsion goes- The issues with Gerald Green were decision making and defensive indifference. As SNP has pointed out about Derozan in College this doesnt’ seem to be much of an issue. If Derozan doesn’t develop a handle he could develop into a Rodney Carney type. This seems like a skill-set that could be developed over time considering his age. Derozan though adds more as a rebounder and can hopefully get to the line more.
Ha!
You called Gomes a shooter. :) Not sure I’d go that far. I like Gomesy, though, and hope that he continues to have a role on this team. He kinda reminds me of reprising Sam Mitchell’s old role, for some reason. I have no idea if that comparison makes any sense, other than in my mind Gomes seems like the perfect complimentary guy who helps the superstars get theirs while also getting his. As he gets older I can see him becoming a great mentor to younger guys.
My real question, though, is what to do about Foye? Will any of these new potential players make that much of a difference for him? Is he really just a great 6th man scoring option off the bench? What’s the breakdown on the impact a new coach/system/GM will have on Foye? Will he be added in to any potential trades?
I guess to a lesser extent I also wonder about Brewer. The guy (in my opinion) is never going to score. At best my hope is that he can be a Shane Battier type guy—guard the other team’s best non-big scorer, get what rebounds, assists, steals, and points you can. No way should he have been a number seven pick. So is he worth keeping? Is there realistic opportunity for improvement? Given our dire need for perimeter defense I think we have to keep him, but he seems like a role player as a starter (defense only) or as a bench player to me. Again, would a new coach or system make a big difference for him, or is he what he is at this point?
by biggity2bit on Apr 16, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Top flight PG's
need 2 or more traits to excel. It can be a combo of things. Strength, size, quickness, explosiveness, shooting ability, smarts, toughness, play making, speed. All are factors that are to be taken into account to make a good PG. An interesting factor is size. If you have a PG with better than average size, which Tyreke does, one thing that you need to be concerned with is quickness and explosion. The ultimate example of this is Derek Rose. Lightning quick, and explodes off the floor. And he just happens to have nice size too. Those factors allow him to get great penetration and allow him to finish. Evans gets great penetration and finishes well – at the college level. He is able to do that because he is fairly quick, but mostly because of his size and to some extent his strength. He can bull his way into the lane and make things happen at the college level. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to do that in the pro game where guys are huge and athletic. You need that added quickness and explosion to get by your man. I hope Tyreke has it (cuz he could be a wolf next year), but I’m not sure. You would hope with a question mark like that he would make up for it in another area like shooting ability but he doesn’t exactly knock your socks off with that. I don’t know, maybe I’m making a mountain out of a molehill. If he does have the quickness and explosion that is comparable to Rose, then we have a gem on our hands. Time will tell….
The NBA is a drive-and-dish league
If Evans can remember that there are four other Wolves on the floor as he heads to the basket, eventually one of these positives will be the outcome:
1. He will lay-up/dunk for two points
2. He will get fouled (once he earns the “Star Treatment”)
3. A combination of #1 and #2
4. He will pass to Love or AlJeff, who will score relatively easily
5. He will kick it out to some three-point bomber (Miller? Curry? Carney?) who will have a more-open three opportunity
Combining these five possibilities with hopefully better perimeter defense, and I’m sold on Evans as a realistic choice for the Wolves first pick.
But I’m just as likely to get excited by DeRozan or Wall.
I haven't
had a chance to watch Wall highlights, but like what I’ve heard about him. Need to do some research there. DeRozan’s athleticism is awesome but I worry about his handles. If we are looking at safe picks at 6 and 17, with an emphasis on getting players who are well rounded who offer good size, strength, and athletic ability (regardless of position), then Evans would be a safe pick at 6, and at 17 you would have to put James Johnson (SF), Terrence Williams (SG), Chase Budinger (SG), and BJ Mullens © on the list as guys who have legit size and athleticism for their positions. And you would have to take guys like Blair (undersized PF), Ellington (undersized SG), Sam Young (undersized SF) off of the list as guys with issues that may be available at 17.
Don't watch John Wall on YouTube
You’ll just get all worked up over the guy’s court savvy and athleticism, and then be disappointed when he goes to some one-and-done school, and then gets picked first overall in the 2010 draft.
Of course, if you’re a glutton for punishment, you can watch this goosebumpy video (try not to swear in amazement if co-workers or small children are present).
Here’s what ESPN says about him (along with the scoop that Wall won’t be declaring for this year’s draft):
Positives:
# Freakish athletic point guard
# Great size for his position
# Explosive leaping ability
# Very quick first step
# Flies up and down the court
# Big time penetrator and finisher at the rim
# Solid passer, can be creative
# Decent mid range jumper
# Great rebounder for a guard
Negatives:
# Needs to improve his three point jump shot
# Still needs to improve his decision making skills with the ball
# Needs more intensity on the defensive end
thx; now I need to get a towel to wipe the drool of my face...
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Apr 21, 2009 4:26 AM CDT up reply actions
John Wall?
Would you rather have Evans or Wall? Evans has better size, but Wall looks to have more explosion to his game.
I dunno
and Wall going to college makes the point moot.
To actually finish,,,
I have a feeling Wall could well be better, but he’s probably in the top 1-2 in 2010, and I think we’re all hoping the Wolves aren’t picking there next season.
What do you see for next year?
Unless something something miraculous happens this offseason i dont see the wolves making the playoffs i wouldnt mind a top 2 pick next year. where would you want the wolves to pick?
I'd like to see them improve...
…enough to give their pick back to the Clippers. This is still a very young team and that amount of improvement would mean Big Al would come back playing healthy. That’s the biggest concern for this franchise: more than draft picks, whether or not Big Al can be healthy.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I want the Wolves to pick at 30
barring that, I want them to play the best basketball they can all season long. And they’re not a bottom 5 team when everyone is healthy and trying. While I’d absolutely love a lucky bounce to give the Wolves a top 3 pick, there’s no reason for them to be in that range naturally, unless the aforementioned injury occurs or the entire team regresses. If the latter happens, then even someone who seems as gifted as John Wall wouldn’t help them.
Too bad John Wall wants some education.
Those twelve hours I had to watch youtube and get excited were fun while they lasted.
by princelyfrank on Apr 18, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Curry
OK, so I can’t wait for the TWolves to get on with this GM/Coach/draft/trade business, and as such have been perusing various draft sites and reading scouting reports, etc, and the more I think about it the more I hope the Wolves end up with Curry somehow. What really intrigues me about him—and has ultimately sold me on him—is the same thing that everyone said about Love last year: the guy has good basketball instincts. He gets that magical ‘it’ when it comes to basketball, and I think that combined with his other best skill—shooting the ball—would make him a great fit for the Wolves and push Foye to 6th man/Captain of the B team/4th quarter energy/instant offense guy. Am I drinking Kool-aid here, or is there a better SG out there? Curry scores, steals, and can play PG too.
I'm a Curry geek...
….so you’ll have to take what I say with a grain of salt, but I have him rated as the best college guard out there. I think he’ll be even better as a pro than he was in college…especially if he can run the point.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
The only problem with Curry are his psychicals; weight and height make him a low potential guy on defense. On offense there’s no doubt he’d be great but with him there’s no perimeter D left…
Beater of the early Thabeet drum
by Wim (Belgium) on Apr 21, 2009 4:29 AM CDT up reply actions
That's why the front office needs
a real plan for this draft. If they target Curry, they should probably do 2 things. One, they’ll probably have to be willing to trade up a few spots to get him (trade up from 18). Two, with their first pick, they should probably consider drafting a player with some solid defensive ability. Whether that be a 2 guard with size and athleticism (like DeRozan) to help with perimeter D, or a big like Thabeet to help swat away shots created by guard penetration. Another legit option would be to take your more offensive minded player with the top pick, like Harden, then go with a PG who may have some hard nosed defender in him, like a Flynn, Lawson (don’t want him personally), or an Evans (nbadraft.net still has him in the low teens so it’s possible we could nab him with a trade up). I suppose I would be equally happy with any of these 3 scenarios:
DeRozan & Curry
Thabeet & Curry
Harden & Evans
Both plans address scoring by nabbing either Curry or Harden, and also address defense, by nabbing either Thabeet, DeRozan, or Evans. Where can I apply for the GM position??
I said it before
If they can get him, I think the Wolves need more guys like Curry. His ‘physicals’ may not measure up to ‘prototypical’ size, but then again people said similar things about Love last year. People also said that Allen Iverson was too small, but he’s turned out to be quite a player.
I agree whole heartedly with you that the FO needs a definite plan for this draft/free agency. My hope is that they do feel empowered to keep who they want and move/release who they want. In terms of this draft my only hope is that they don’t reach for ‘projects’, a la Will Avery or Ndudi Ebi. We need basketball players. We need guys like Kevin Love, like Derek Fisher, like (the now frequently cited) Shane Battier—players who facilitate and elevate the play of everyone else around them at the expense of the opposing team. Having said that, another superstar or two wouldn’t hurt, but I’m not sure we’ll be able to draft one. Trade maybe?
For the perimeter D, assuming he comes back healthy, what kind of difference can Brewer make? He’s gotta be fast enough to guard most (if not all) 2’s, and he certainly has the length to bother people. Is he quick enough to guard 1’s as well? Or is he strictly a 2/3 defender?
I like
Brewer guarding 2’s more than 3’s. A lot of 3’s in the NBA are just so much more physical then him. He can stay in front of them but when they approach the hoop they can still score anyways since they are able to create a little space for themselves at the right moment. A lot of it depends on this off season. Will he be fully healed (all reports sound like he will be 100%)? Can he put on 10 pounds of muscle? I don’t think that’s too much to ask of him. Now that he’s a little older, gaining weight should be easier. His body has hopefully matured and will allow him to pack on some needed muscle. But ya, he will offer solid perimeter D. I just prefer him to come off the bench. Also certain situations will dictate who is on the floor. If we draft DeRozan and Curry then I wouldn’t mind Brewer at the 3, even in the starting rotation (I’m hoping for James Johnson somehow, probably won’t happen). Simply because DeRozan would provide some perimeter size. It would be awesome if Brewer’s light just magically switched on and he becomes the legit SF this team needs. Good defender, slasher, can hit open shots, and great hussle. We’ll see.
Updated thinking
After reading more about Harden, I wouldn’t be opposed if the TWolves nabbed him. He and Curry kind of sound like they’re cut from the same cloth as Love—good basketball players whose only weaknesses are physical/athletic. And quite frankly, Harden as an average defender in the NBA would still be an upgrade for the Wolves.
Going forward it wouldn’t be so bad for the Wolves to draft one NBA ready guy (a la Curry/Harden assuming we don’t get lucky in the draft) and one potential/upside guy (Evans/DeRozen), and use their last pick to either trade up for one of the afore mentioned players or trade for a post defender.
by biggity2bit on Apr 23, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
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