Lotto Day (The Positive Post)
by Stop-n-Pop on May 19, 2009 4:00 AM CDT
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PrintWill the Wolves end up with this:
Or this:
Discuss and pray.
Also, with all of the negativity surrounding the GM search, let's take a moment to pretend that our favorite squad is less Tennessee hillbilly and more 2 pasty kids from Detroit getting their Led out like no one else. Here are my top 5 reasons to still care about this team (in no particular order):
- Kevin Love- The best Wolves rookie since KG. If KG is to Prince, then Love is a young Bob Dylan--fresh on the scene with his Woody Guthrie tribute act before realizing that he's a progression all onto himself. I know it may sound a bit over the top, but if Love is paired with a legit pick and roll point guard who can shoot the ball (cough...Stephen Curry...cough) the Wolves could have an unstopable duo in 2-3 years.
- Britt Robson- On the Ball is still the place to see and be seen in Wolves fandom. There are no better game wraps in all of the NBA. Here's hoping that Secrets of the City, the Strib, the PiPress, or someone else comes up with a viable option for letting Britt continue his writing on the squad. Note to the Wolves: forget Bill Simmons, ditch the happy-happy-joy-joy nonsense (Mark Madsen is the people's champ...really?) on your site and give Britt all the access he wants. In general, the Wolves are blessed with fantastic non-traditional media coverage. From Myles to TWolvesBlog to the RealGM and TWolvesCentral board (to several others--please see our links section), the team has a fantastic group of informed fans who all give their own unique take on the franchise. Also, I would be remiss if I did not mention all of the wonderful commenters on our site who make the below-the-fold conversations as interesting and entertaining as possible. Wyn and I are very happy and proud of the little community we've built here and we thank everyone for being a part of it.
- Draft picks, Euro centers, and cap space oh my!- While there has been very little evidence in the team's history to suggest that they will be able to maximize all of the assets in front of them, there is enough in terms of quantity to give fans hope that the team may, by way of numbers, back themselves into a player or two to fill out the roster on a championship contending team. Again, hope for the 2 kids from Detroit rather than the guys with the beards.
- Bill Smith is the new Kevin McHale- This one is more for the casual sports fan. Roy/Foye is no longer the worst deal in town. Mr. Smith has two deals which easily eclipse the 2006 Portland debacle. In less than 2 years on the job Bill Smith has traded away the best pitcher in baseball for scraps as well as moving the team's only starting power arm and functional middle-infielder for a glorified singles hitter who can't play defense. From a team that could have trotted out a Johan, Garza, Liriano, Slowey, Baker starting rotation with Perkins and Blackburn in the pen; and from a lineup that could have had Bartlett in the middle of the infield and batting 2nd; the Twins now find themselves looking at the fallout from two of the poorest moves in recent Minnesota sports history. It would have cost them what: 2 years at the end of Santana's deal or a few extra mil one year before the new palace? While the Twinkies will move into a nice looking stadium next year, it's still next to a garbage burner and we all know they won't actually spend money on the types of players they need. Instead, they will give contracts out to "character guys"...i.e. head-first sliding, light-hitting middle infielders that the Okie manager loves to talk about. Anywho, the point here is that the Wolves are no longer the only front office joke in town. Hats off to the Twins. It was lonely at the shallow end of the pool. At least now Our Beloved Puppies have company. (PS: From what I hear from friends, the Wild may be fellow travelers as well.)
- It's still the NBA. Best game, best athletes. Nuff' said. Regardless of your thoughts on the Wolves, any time you can go catch a game with guys like D-Wade, Kobe, Dirk, Howard, and CP3, your money is being well spent. This year's Cavs game featured the best Minny sports performance of 2008. LeBron absolutely put on a show.
Well, that about does it. Here's hoping for some of this in the lotto:
Remember, positive thoughts today...regardless of any GM-related boobery that may trickle out of 600 First Avenue.
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People may thank KLOVE
and his nailclippers for breaking the curse and finally bringing good luck to the Twolves as they finally move up to 1 or 2 tonight, but I’m giving credit to you S&P for channelling all the positive energy you can from Twolves fans to appease the random Gods and Stern fixers giving the Wolves that favorable ping pong ball tonight.
Yeahhhhhhhhhhh, cmon Wolves.
I'm glad we sent Love.
He’ll bring some Good Vibrations. Perhaps he can box out the other teams and rebound that ping pong ball himself.
by princelyfrank on May 19, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
New idea...
WWE-Royal-Rumble-style fight for the top pick. Last guy standing gains his team’s #1.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't Forget the Vikes!!
There’s lots of laughing to be done about that club, too.
As for the Twins, they weren’t going to sign Johan because he didn’t want to sign. Still, though, they made the sweepstakes such a circus and the offers were ridiculously low. They should have just said screw you, we’re going to pitch Johan through 2008 and take the draft picks. And that trade with Tampa Bay, oy.
But, Billy Smith isn’t the next Kevin McHale. You never heard of Smith before he became general manager, so as he crashes and burns, it’s just some suit going down. But, with McHale, you watched a Minnesota Legend implode in such an inglorious fashion that averting one’s eyes is the only prudent thing to do.
I will completely defer...
…to you on all things Twinkie. I had always thought that Johan would have stayed here for equal money. I just love seeing another GM in town pull of a trade that would make McHale blush. At least other sports fans can now understand the Wovles fans’ pain. Good point about the anonymity of Smith.
BTW: for those of you who don’t know (and you should), SBG runs the best sports site in Minnesota:
It should be a daily stop for all Minny sports fans.
PS: I’m eagerly awaiting the Vikings implosion this year. I can’t wait until Favre and ESPN descend on Mankato. It will be a circus.
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Agree w/SBG on Santana...
He wanted the big contract and a chance to pitch on a big stage. I have mixed feelings about the Young deal; the potential is clearly there (he hit some mammoth home runs last year), but it doesn’t take a psychologist to see that he’s not Gardy’s type of player. And Gomez is close to if not the best defensive CF in baseball (statistically according to range factor and just watching him — there are very few balls he can’t get to) but it’s tough to tell what his offense will turn out to be.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
The tough thing about Young
is that Spann, Gomez and Cuddyer are so much better defensively than Young, Spann, and Cuddyer. With Kubel being the DH it sort of leaves Young out. I have to wonder if the Twin’s telling Young to “take as much time as he needs,” instead of sending condolences and saying “hurry back we need you,” is a way of letting Gomez settle in. Clearly, they should trade Young for some bullpen help ASAP.
Even Harris is a nice player off the bench, but they could really use Bartlett and Punto should be the utility player. The thing with Young not being a Gardy player is also true of Garza and was partly why they traded him at the time. They should have done their homework on Young though. Apparently, (and take this as third-hand, heard it from someone who heard it from someone who seems like they should know) both Young and Garza like to tip a few back after games and neither is (or at least was) receptive to coaching.
Every one knows, neither
was receptive to coaching, but the drinking part is the part where I introduce the caveat of “heard it from a freind who, heard it from a friend who, heard it from another…” I was told that both players are “drunks.”
This really isn't fair to Delmon
Delmon was always a Right Fielder in TB. A left fielder usually covers a larger area, and is a more demanding outfield position. We brought Delmon here and changed his position and the fans were an immediate uproar that he wasn’t making basket catches and climbing the wall. I agree, that he doesn’t seem to have the best potential to improve, but let’s not pretend that Cuddyer is a defensive gem. Young is just as good as Cuddyer in RF and they both have the same strong arm that Right Fielders need, we just F-ed up and signed Cuddyer to a ridiculous extension because he’s a “Team Guy.”
I agree
That if the choice is between Cuddyer and Young the argument can be made in favor of Young, or at least that you don’t lose anything defensively with Young in RF vs. Cuddyer. But the choice has been Gomez or Young so far and Gardy seems to want Spann and Cuddyer in there everyday. Now that Cuddyer has started to heat up a bit, I wouldn’t mind them trading Young. There is something to say for team guys, especially when they can adequately fill a role in the lineup.
Young is not as bad in right as left, but he definately is not a team guy. When you need bullpen help, that makes him expendable in my opinion.
delmon
roy/foye was the worse trade because roy was going to be a better player and at the time of the twins trade i think most people agreed it was a pretty good trade we had alot of depth at pitcher and garza wasnt going to pitch much cuz he only wanted to throw fastballs also delmon was considered the best young bat. also cuddy is way better than delmon defensivly, i put rank delmon slightly better than lew ford. andy you know its span right?
Morneau
Morneau used to be a pretty headstrong player when he was young, and one who used to go out on the town until he moved in with Mauer.
Cuddy will keep playing as long as he’s swinging the bat well, which he’s done so far this year. If you can get similar production out of Young as Cuddy, and improve Young’s defense to average (which is the same as Cuddy’s), than long term you’d want Young because he’ll save you tens of millions in salary.
I get the sense that Bill Smith is a good executive, but not a very good personnel guy. Somebody should have told him to just pay Cruz what he wanted. Don’t forget, we also lost Boof and Neschek (again) to injury this year. Bartlett would be nice here, but he was Punto v.2.0 when he was here offensively. And Garza was Lohse 2.0 with better stuff—a self-absorbed headcase. Thankfully Smith resigned Kubel to a very reasonable deal—that guy’s providing offense from the DH spot like we haven’t seen in years.
I'd never heard the Oak Ridge Boys cover...
Truly awful.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 10:26 AM CDT reply actions
Really?
I kind of dug it. You ever hear Dolly Parton’s “Stairway to Heaven”?
by princelyfrank on May 19, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Dolly is a saint...
…and no one should speak ill of her.
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I've just grown up...
With country music (unwillingly) and seen too many artists cover artists from other genres. I guess that most 60s and 70s rock bands were also doing covers of the blues, though, so maybe that’s not a good enough reason to not like the song.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
No...
….I’m with you on the Oak Ridge Boys. I think I would rather listen to the sweet sounds of a slaughterhouse than the Oak Ridge boys covering the White Stripes. Interestingly enough, I saw them on TBN the other night. I’m hooked on the Jesus channel and they have been on a lot lately. They must have some sort of spiritual album or church tour. I just can’t get enough of people who sell prayers for money. It’s world class entertainment…almost as good as the House of Representatives on CSPAN.
Getting back to the country thing for a second, didn’t some big country star try a rap crossover a few years back? I can’t remember if it was a crossover or a cover. I think it was Tim McGraw.
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the look on his face...
….when they were at 3rd was priceless.
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Here he is a moment before the tragedy
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i still can't...
…believe that he brought a teddy bear from a sick kid. i have been ravaged by cynicism to be suspicious of such things but it’s still funny even if he is genuine.
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The funny moment was when he stood there and almost dropped the Teddy when he heard he would pick 3
His arms really sunk down
I wish I could find it
on youtube
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I envision...
The Wolves picking up the first pick and Dennis Lindsey crawling on back.
If the Draft Lottery was a High School Reunion, then Dennis Lindsey would play the part of “the dude we had a crush on in High School” and Blake Griffin would play the part of “the boob job”.
If both of those scenarios happen...
Blake Griffin will have a new nickname for eternity on Hoopus.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Your Blake Griffin Boob Job Leader
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better yet...
…it’s like that scene from the movie where the hot girl dresses up like a guy and flashes some guy. i can’t remember the name of it.
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Just One of the Boys!
Ah, a Comedy Central Sunday afternoon classic.
by princelyfrank on May 19, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
God the 80s were great
I don’t know if this is one of those “I should keep it to myself” statements, but isn’t that kind of how Prince looks these days?
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Suggestion for SnP
You should see if you can get Givony on here to do a Podcast with yourself or Wyn (ala what he did with the Bullsbeat that was posted on his DX site) or at least a written Q&A as it pertains to the Wolves pick and some of the prospects we need to sort through, assuming we end up in the 5-8 range. I think it would be a mutually beneficial transaction.
Yikes
Would the Wolves Really take Thabeet at Number 3? Is the strategy to get Al or Kevin Love off the court? I would tend to think they would take Harden at 3.
Agreed.
I think Ford simply doesn’t have the time to get super in-depth with each team’s thought process, and so from a typical draft strategy standpoint, Thabeet probably makes sense. But he also minimizes Thabeet’s bust potential in his write-up on him, and I think that makes him seem much more reasonable at 3. I think the Wolves go Harden all the way if they land third. At fifth is anyone’s guess.
And I really wish PG would call up Lindsey and ask for him back. Outside of getting Hinkie, this whole GM thing could set us back another 2-3 years unless Hoiberg turns out to be awesome. Suck up your loyalties and run your business, Glen—Lindsey’s the best you can get, so go get him!
Thabeet will not happen
I’m calling it now. They are going to try for Pekovic and they have already stated that they need help at the point and wing before anything else. I can’t imagine a scenario where they would take him.
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I'm a Blazer fan and I just had to join so I could rec this post.
Any inclusion of Ball and Biscuit in a post is worthy of a rec. Outstanding song.
Sorry (not too much so, but kinda) about Penn. Still, anything’s going to be an upgrade over McHale for you guys. Good luck in the lottery tonight!
Yes! Yes! In the face!
Call Me a Pessimist
But in my darkest hours, I envision the day when we wished we had McHale back. Oh wait, it’s not Kahn?
i think fans would beg....
….for mchale after 2-3 years of kahn. the wolves would, at the very least, be prepped to move to seattle after he got done with them.
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Another thing to be happy about...
… is that we have Al Jefferson, a 23 and 11 guy, coming back healthy. I’m aware of his shortcomings, but I think that any list of this sort that places Kevin Love, a good role player, at the top should also include the fact that we also happen to have the top low post player in the NBA on our squad.
Anyone Else Notice This?
Our defense went straight South when BAJ went out. That’s not saying he’s great defensively, but he’s not the worst defensive player ever, apparently.
Yes...
… things got REALLY ugly defensively after Jefferson went down. Part of the problem was McHale’s decision to play Love at Center, where he was overmatched, but I did think that Al’s defense improved this season, and he was our only shotblocker. I’m excited to have him, Brewer, and our first round picks in the mix. (I’m hoping we’ll hand Harden, Holiday, and a shotblocker at 29).
I agree...
It was the domino effect of having AJ out and making everyone move over a slot. The dreaded Love-Gomes or Love-Smith combinations at the 5 and 4 were just horrific defensively. Al may not be that good of a defender, but he does provide a 9-foot + standing reach that at least ocassionaly distracts interior shots.
by Rascal Flatts on May 19, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
It was a roster problem
You don’t really want to give more minutes to the Terrible Jason Collins either. For some bizzare
reason they didn’t give Shelden Williams many minutes considering he was by far their best interior Defender.
by Jose Cordoba on May 19, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed
We were definitely not a team that could afford to lose its best player. Man, that was an ugly home stretch. I also can’t wait to see Big Al back on the court—I hope his (and Brew’s) recovery is going well.
I hope that whoever is in charge of the Wolves decisions is planning different ways to trade Mike Miller’s contract. We don’t need Mike playing point guard for another season. I think most would agree with that.
Agreed...
If SnP had written a Top Five Reasons Not to Like The Timberwolves, Mike Miller would have to be somewhere near the top along with Glen Taylor’s ill-advised loyalty and Kevin McHale’s condescension and unwillingness to step aside like he’s always talked about doing. It’s pretty sad that the big “sweetener” (Miller) which tipped the scales toward doing the Mayo-Love deal has turned out to be counterproductive on the court and has diminished his trade value by refusing to shoot. Miller’s antics last year were infuriating.
miller will be better next year
i think he average about 12 shots a game for the first 5 games which isnt to bad of a start. i think there were 2 factors that caused the number of shots he took to decrease to about 6 a game. first he sprained his ankle twice (did he sprain both of them?) and i know from personal experience when i sprained mine i couldnt jump a well and that killed what jump shot i had (i know im not even close to the nba level but i would assume jumping is even more important in the pros). also miller being around awhile i think he saw there wasnt solid guard play and he semi took over, i dont think its a coincidence that the year he has is lowest ppg he had his highest apg and rpg. if we get a pg in the draft i think millers points will return to where they were in past years
yes...
….and another big thing going for the team is that defense gets better as players get older. age is actually a pretty decent factor in how well players play defense in the nba. what will really be key for them is to have an entire season with the sort of pace they had between the day after x-mas and the big al injury. it wasn’t transition based; rather, they quickly got into 1/2 court sets and were able to get good shots and good rebounds. a good offense and a steady pace will make up for a lot of defensive shortcomings.
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I'm not sure about the age/defensive ability correlation...
… it’s clear that there is a correlation, but I don’t think it’s entirely (or even mostly) because players get better as they age. I think the statistical relationship is the result of a selection effect: young players who can’t play defense will not remain in the NBA unless they have above average skills in other areas (which, on average, most don’t). These players who get selected out will be replaced by other young players who may or may not be able to play defense and who consequently may or may not stick in the NBA. On the other hand, older players had to successfully pass through that screening mechanism to remain in the NBA (unless they were above average in some other area). Therefore, on average, older players are going to be better defenders, but only because of the selection effect that occurs as young players are evaluated and teams decide whether or not to keep them around. The “effect” of age is really a result of young players who are bad defenders no longer being in the NBA into their “old age”. In Al Jefferson’s case, he will of course stick in the NBA because of his dominant offensive low block game. But I’m not counting on him to become a better than average defender simply because he gets older.
There is actually a lot of good stuff...
…about age and defense. Here’s the best primer:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/3/2/773198/kevin-pelton-blows-minds-a
Here’s the money statement:
There is a demonstrable relationship between age and defensive efficiency. By one measure, we can estimate that age accounts for approximately 18.8% of defensive efficiency when surveying all teams from 2001-2002 to the present. Age is certainly a factor that should be considered when assessing a team’s defense, however coaching and personnel are most likely more critical factors.
When adjusted for age, the Wolves actually come out a bit better (that’s a relative term with their defense) in the rankings. Love and Big Al are going to get better by playing with one another and aging together. It would be interesting to run these age numbers against league experience ones. I think it probably is less age and more experience. Again, after you enter the league it’s a running clock and there is no variation but overall I think it might add up to a collective difference as some players enter the league much later than others.
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I don't doubt that there's marginal improvement as players age...
… but what I’m saying is that the correlation, by only looking at players currently on NBA rosters (rather than, say, all players who have been drafted since a given year in the past) are basically looking at a biased sample that will produce a spurious correlation for age because, on average, bad defenders are less likely to stick in the league. The older ones, who have stuck in the league, were likely better defenders to start out with (again, unless they had some exceptional skill that offset their mediocre/bad defense, which, on average is the exception rather than the rule). Thus it would (unfortunately) be wrong to infer that Jefferson has a lot of improving to do on the defensive end. I don’t doubt that there’s a partial correlation between age and defensive ability for the reasons you mentioned, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. By the time a player reaches the NBA, he usually either has the tools and mentality to be a good defender or he doesn’t. Al looks like he doesn’t (though I love him for other reasons).
I don't know...
…if he answers that specifically but I do know there is a weighted age involved that minimizes the impact of players that don’t actually play. Since it was measured on a team basis, it simply measures the effective age of a team and its improvement over time. Does some of that involve adding vets and draft picks? Of course. I think you make an excellent point there. By simply upgrading their roster the Wolves could see some improvement (and, depending on how they upgraded, an increase in age). The stat definitely doesn’t go into that amount of depth. Also, this is a team measurement, not an individual one.
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wow..
….poor editing on my part….i wonder if i mentioned that it was a team measurement ;)
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I briefly looked through the link you sent...
… and I’m convinced he uses the wrong identification strategy. A good study would see whether players who stuck in the NBA and are currently on rosters were better defenders when they were younger than the also-rans who were the same age didn’t stick, and I’m almost sure the answer would, on average, be yes. (And I realize this would be difficult to pull off because of how players move from team-to-team, etc). I’d consequently be surprised if there’s a real (causal) correlation between age and defensive ability/effectiveness. It’s just a bad statistical/inferential research design that can yield very misleading results. As I said, I suspect there’s a partial correlation because of experience, coaching, etc, etc, but I doubt it’s a very strong one.
I'll find the thread at APBR..
….there are a few other ones that do go into more depth and come in somewhere in the teens. I think it’s more experience however. I wonder if it would work with player pairings.
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i completely hadn't...
….thought of it like that.
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Thanks...
Selection and identification issues are a common inferential fallacy that makes statistical inference really difficult. However, with the right identification strategy statistical analysis can tell you a world of things you wouldn’t know otherwise. But it’s really, really important to think through selection and endogeneity issues. I think that the basketball stats community is getting pretty good at the latter but still has a ways to go in the former (as in this case).
Stupid variables predicting other variables
Sometimes I think there are simply too many moving parts for some of this stuff to be really effective. Other times, I think basketball stats have more potential for being useful than do baseball ones. The problem with stuff like this particular stat is that it isn’t really useful. It’s more of a hopeful thing or a trivia answer. It would be nice to know how much better players get on defense simply by having time in the league but it pales in comparison to figuring out spacing issues, proper player pairings, etc.
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BTW:
I still would maintain that a portion of the Wolves’ future defensive improvement (and there should be some by virtue of talent upgrade, coaching, etc) is due to age and experience in the NBA. How much? That’s a good question.
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Good points...
… I agree on both. Since you follow this stuff closer than I do, how much of the basketball stats “findings” involve multivariate analysis and how many are pure bivariate?
I would guess it depends on what you're looking for...
….most of the single player eval stuff is multivariate but there are still some solid, less complicated stuff having to do with position or direction. There is value in both. I tend to think the less complicated stuff is more practical and useful in game action, while the PERs, win scores, etc are more for general argument and player evaluation. I would much rather know how a player favors going right or left than I would their PER.
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Can anyone tip me in the right direction of the time when the coverage starts? If possible in ET time (ET is easy for me to convert to my timezone).
Can’t find it anywhere for some bizarre reason…
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
ty!
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
by Wim (Belgium) on May 19, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
In future years...
I hope they explore basing the lottery odds on number of wins instead of position in the standings. To me, it doesn’t make sense that a 24-win team has half the chance of moving up as a 22-win team. It might also remove the incentive for the worst teams to tank, because position wouldn’t matter as much.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 19, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions
That's a very interesting idea.
And one I’ve never even heard suggested before. Somebody get David Stern on the phone!
by princelyfrank on May 19, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Only 3 more hours!
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
by Wim (Belgium) on May 19, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Did we just get kicked in the butt by another coin flip? No luck again…
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
yep....another coin flip gone wrong
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