Building a Winner Update, pt. iii: Trades
by Stop-n-Pop on May 28, 2009 8:51 PM CDT
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PrintOK, we've all heard the rumors. The bad economy and current NBA climate are going to make for some interesting situations this off-season (and the next) as teams clamor to reduce salary--creating trades and fire sales that were unthinkable only 10-12 months ago.
The Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in a very interesting situation. On one hand they have nice young core of developing upper-level players (Al Jefferson and Kevin Love), a decent group of role players (Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, and hopefully Corey Brewer), a cache of draft picks, a stashed Euro center, tons of future cap space, and reasonable contract after reasonable contract after reasonable contract. This is a collection of assets that could, in the right hands, be transformed rather quickly--should the rumors of sweetheart trades be only half true--into a contending team.
On the other hand, with 3 first rounders this year, two likely first rounders next year, expiring contracts, and very movable players like the aforementioned Foye and Craig Smith, the Wolves are also in a position to stockpile talent in hopes of significantly upgrading their roster with low-cost rookie-scaled contracts while still maintaining future cap space in 2010 and beyond. Do they cash out in a year with a relatively weak draft to take advantage of being a relatively decent sized fish in a small pond, or do they hold the course for a year in which more teams will be active and with a draft that is shaping up to be as good as the one we saw last season? Is there a way to find a middle ground between these two approaches?
Let's start with the idea that some teams are going to unload players in an attempt to cut salary. What are these teams and what sorts of players are we talking about? If the main motive for moving a player is an economic one, let's take a look at teams with low revenue, declining revenue, and poor attendance. According to Forbes, here are the 10 least valuable teams in the league:
- Bucks
- Bobcats
- Hornets
- Grizzlies
- Nets
- Clippers
- Thunder
- Wolves
- Pacers
- Hawks
Here are the teams who saw an estimated decline in value between 07 and 08:
- Nets (-13%)
- Pacers (-9%)
- Kings (--9%)
- Sixers (-5%)
- Griz (-3%)
- Wolves (-2%)
Here are the bottom dwellers in attendance:
- Sacramento
- Memphis
- Indiana
- Minnesota
- Charlotte
- New Jersey
- Milwaukee
- Philly
- Washington
- Atlanta
- NOLA
Here are the teams that make our list 2 or more times:
- Milwaukee (low attendance, value)
- Charlotte (low attendance, value)
- Indiana (low attendance, value, declining value)
- Memphis (low attendance, value, declining value)
- Nets (low attendance, value, declining value)
- Wolves (low attendance, value, declining value)
- Atlanta (low attendance, value)
- Sacramento (declining value, attendance)
- Sixers (declining value, attendance)
- NOLA (value, attendance)
Now lets look at performance. Here are some of the teams that fell the most from 07-08 (in games below prior season's record):
- Detroit (-20)
- GSW (-19)
- Phoenix (-9)
- Toronto (-8)
- NOLA (-7)
- Utah (-6)
- Clippers (-4)
I left Washington out of the picture because they are giving signals that they want to contend with their current roster. They are also a special trade case that we will deal with later. There are a few things to take note of here. First, the teams with 2-3 of our categories are mostly young and up-and-coming. Atlanta, Philly, and NOLA are the only winning teams in the bunch.
Performance-wise, 5 of the 7 declining teams are from the Western Conference. This should definitely play into the Wolves' plans. If they can make a deal with a Western Conference team they do two things at once: improve their roster while reducing the talent on a conference competetor.
Money wise, the most likely candidates for salary reduction are Milwaukee and NOLA. Not only do these teams have attendance and value issues, they are both over the cap, with NOLA being over the luxury mark. Let's take a look at what these two teams have to offer on the personnel front with salary numbers listed after the name for each coming year:
Milwaukee:
- Michael Redd (17/18.3 ETO)
- Richard Jefferson (14.2/15.2 ETO)
- Andrew Bogut (10/11/12/13/14)
- Dan Gadzuric (6.7/7.2)
- Charlie Villanueva (4.6 QO)
- Ramon Sessions FA
- Joe Alexander (2.5/2.7/3.5)
Milwaukee has a few interesting options. First, Redd was injured and will not play. Both he and Jefferson have ETOs in 2010. Say the Wolves could take Redd or Jefferson off the Bucks' hands with Joe Alexander and a future 1st round pick. They would do so knowing full well they would only get Jefferson or Redd for about a year, but they could pick up a pick for their troubles. Not exactly a long term solution but it's a thought. Joe Alexander hasn't really shown that he will be a player in this league. The player who is really interesting is Ramon Sessions and he could be had on the open market.
NOLA is a bit more interesting.
- Chris Paul (13/15/16/18)
- Tyson Chandler (12.2/13 ETO)
- Peja Stojakovic (13.3/14.2 ETO)
- James Posey (6/6.4/6.9)
That's a boat load of money and if they keep the status quo, regardless of any new draft picks, they are over the cap until at least 2011. That's absurd for a franchise that is bleeding money. What is also absurd is the idea that NOLA could cut the roster with a superstar in his prime being the only man left standing. If any group of fans know how this sort of thing plays out, it is us Wolves fans. The writing is already on the wall for CP3 and the Hornets. They have locked themselves into their own versions of Sam and Spree and they will have to deal with diminishing results until it comes time to blow the whole thing up and start all over.
I know it seems weird to talk about Chris Paul being traded. It also seems weird to think that NOLA could surround him with anything remotely approaching a decent team if they start to trade away players for salary dumps. No one is going to take a guy like Peja or Chandler without something else in return at this point. If they attach additional draft assets, that further depletes their future potential to surround Paul with players that matter.
What are the toughest and hardest-to-move assets on the Hornets? Without a doubt, this has to be Peja and James Posey. Chandler, despite his silly contract and declined trade, could be packaged during the season. Posey has rough contract and Peja has hardly any remaining upside. By packaging these 3 players, NOLA can save upwards of $30 million a year for at least the next two years. What could the Wolves offer for these players?
First of all, CP3 has a poison pill provision that resets his contract on July 1st. Any trade would have to take place after the draft. The best the Wolves could offer is this:
- Mike Miller
- Brian Cardinal
- Corey Brewer
- Mark Madsen
- Craig Smith
- Randy Foye
- 6th pick
- 28th pick
- Rights to Nikola Pekovic
That's a pretty damn big trade and it would pretty much end any other wheeling and dealing the team could do in the off season. It would preserve the 18th pick as well as next year's Utah pick, although, both of those assets should be in play for a player of Paul's caliber.
If such a deal went through, NOLA would gain roughly $20 million in contracts that they could wipe off the books in 2010 while gathering the 6th pick in this year's draft, a legit EL center, a late-round pick that could be used on an additional EL player, and young players with decent rotation potential in Foye, Brewer, and Smith. On the other hand, the Wolves end up with this:
- Paul/Bassy
- bag-o-donuts
- Ryan Gomes/James Posey/Peja
- Kevin Love/Gomes
- Al Jefferson/bag-o-donuts
Now, this option would take some creativity in terms of using the MLE for a shooting guard or front court backup, as well as getting a player with the 18th pick, but I put it here on the site to show the sort of package the Wolves could bring back if they put all their chips into a single trade. Paul would take a haul or a NOLA fleecing.
What are some other big name players with big contracts on teams with attendance, ownership, declining performance, or value problems?
Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Brandan Wright, and Chris Bosh are the players that first come to mind. Other teams like Utah are in a precarious situation and Andrei Kirilenko could probably be had for the right price.
Moving down the ladder, the Wolves should also be on the look out for teams that may be looking to make dramatic changes. Your Dallases, and San Antonios of the world. I still maintain that the Spurs will eventually have to move Tony Parker either this year or the next. It likely won't be to the Wolves, but they are a franchise at the crossroads and he is their most valuable player. Another option is the oft-mentioned Kirk Hinrich deal with Chicago.
Putting some of this together, and mixing in our take on the draft, here are a few scenarios we would like to see the team pursue:
A- Zombie Piranha Ball:
- Coordinate trade with Washington for the #5 pick. Package one: Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and the rights to Nikola Pekovic for Etan Thomas, JaVale McGee, O. Pecherov, and the 5th pick. Less complicated option is Miller for Thomas and the rights to the #5 pick (to be completed after draft day).
- Use 5th and 6th picks in the draft to select 2 of the following: James Harden, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, or Demar DeRozan. Ideally, Harden and Curry.
- Coordinate trade with Utah involving AK-47 and Minnesota expiring contracts. Exact package would depend on remaining assets from first deal.
This route would hopefully give the Wolves the backcourt equivalent of Love and Jefferson with Curry and Harden; 2 fantastically efficient players who rely more on smarts and skill to get things done than pure athleticism. The hope here is that Harden could develop into a dribble-drive threat with all-around skills while Curry could run the point and provide long distance shooting. The duo would actually be bigger than what the Wolves would run out with Bassy/Foye or Foye/(insert player here). With 2 pairs of efficient players who have complimentary skills, a long, athletic, defending 3 is a must. AK-47 is a perfect fit. His contract is huge but there are only two years left and he could be, at the very least, a place filler until (hopefully) Brewer is able to become the player we all hope he can be. The wild card here would be trying to work a deal with Washington to pry away McGee. If the Wolves offer Miller and Foye, two players that could step in right away to provide the type of right-now help the Wizards need, and if the Wolves could add in Pekovic (a guy who could save them money now while adding talent down the road), I think it's an attractive enough package where the Wolves should give it a shot. The ultimate goal of this plan is this:
- Curry/Bassy
- Harden/Brewer
- AK-47/Brewer/Gomes
- Love/McGee/Gomes
- Jefferson/McGee
Philosophy-wise, it would be balls-to-the-wall up tempo basketball with a dribble drive threat who can shoot, 2 mid range shooters, an inside bruiser, and an athletic jack-of-all-trades to tie it all together. Off the bench would be an athletic 2/3, an athletic 4/5 and a pure point. This comes out to arround $55.1 mil over 10 deals with an MLE, minimum exception, and 2 slotted picks at 18 and 28 to round out the roster.
B- Slightly altered Zombie Piranha Ball:
- Trade Miller, Foye, and Pekovic to the Wizards for McGee, Darius Songalia, Mike James, and the 5th pick.
- Trade the 6th pick, Mark Madsen, Craig Smith, and Brian Cardinal to the Bulls for Kirk Hinrich.
- Draft Stephen Curry or James Harden with the 6th pick.
- Hinrich/Bassy
- (Harden/Curry)/Brewer
- Gomes/Brewer
- Love/McGee/Songalia
- Jefferson/McGee/Songalia
Wrapping this thing up, the main point of this post is to show that the Wolves' best trade option likely involves a trade with Washington or a trade that allows a team outside of the lotto to move to #6 (or 5, depending on Washington) in addition to a player of need. You can make up your own trades but the bottom line is this: guys like Parker and Paul will come at an astronomical cost while the team can likely pull some good bargain deals with teams like the Wiz and Bulls. The targets of this trade should be a backup 4/5, a 2, a 3, and a 1; basically all non-power forwards and whoever they don't pick up with the #6 pick.
They should also not be afraid to move anyone short of Love and Big Al; and, if a situation arose where Parker, Paul, D-Will, or Dirk could be had, that rule gets thrown out the window.
I have really grown to like the idea of adding Kirk Hinrich to this squad. He's a slightly above average player with a troublesome contract, but his perimeter defense would be an absolute revelation on this squad. He can guard all 3 spots on the perimeter while being able to handle the ball. He's a bit hit or miss on offense, but with a draft (hopefully) involving Curry or Harden, and with a squad already consisting of Love and Jefferson, they don't need the guy to score.
I also really like the idea of working out a deal with Washington involving Miller, Foye, and Pekovic. The Wolves could even throw in Gomes if it would allow them to walk away with the 5th pick and McGee. Foye is a problematic player. He's good but he's limited and limiting. He's a 6th man on a team that bought him as a 1b starter. It's time for a new start and a backup to Gilbert Arenas seems like a good place for that to happen.
Philosophy-wise, the point I've made here is that it will be either hard or incredibly expensive for the Wolves to go out and bring in an established player that can fit in with their style and age group. The big fish will require them to go all-in and while they have a lot of assets, they don't have that much. At the end of the day, the best trading strategy for the Wolves is to focus on trading for an average or slightly above average player that can fill a gap not filled by their #6 pick. They need to bank on the hope that Big Al can be option 1a while Love can be an upper-level #3 guy. They also need to hope that James Harden or Stephen Curry can be a legit #2 guy to help fill out the roster. If they are able to land one of these two players, while getting a point or backup 4/5 via trade, then they can fill in the remaining gaps in free agency or next year's draft.
Well, that about does it for now. We'll be back with a post about free agents before we wrap this all up with a post detailing our ultimate off season. We'd love to hear from you about what trades you would like to see and what players you think should be on the block.
Until later.
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Excellent Post as Always
Really great stuff with team values and revenues. Some real quick thoughts
1. No great intrest in anyone on the Bucks. I doubt Sessions comes via sign and trade. Although as a Minneapleseed he’s a mixed bag. I also really tend to doubt the Wolves can acquire Paul or Parker.
2. Kirlienko is interesting. Although his contract makes one gag. For a guy who’s number seem to be declining. I just don’t know if he’s the best use of assests.
My number 1 idea is to try to work a Sign and Trade with Atlanta involving Gomes and 18 for Childress. This seems like reasonable value considering the circumstances. I can’t really say enough good things about Childress’s game and his fit on the team. I would even go far enough to say he was the best player on the Hawks before leaving for Greece. I know I’ve made about seven posts to this regard. If you team him with Stephen Curry and Corey Brewer than things get intresting.
1. You’ve got a legitmate outside shooting threat who can intiate offense.
2. You’re much longer on the perimeter with Childress and Brewer.
3. Childress can probably develop into a Quasi Point-Forward.
4. While this might not be a great shooting line-up. You’d have a couple nice options coming off the bench in Miller and Foye. Although if Atlanta wanted Miller- Trade Him Trade Him
This line-up would clearly increase efficency on both ends of the court. I think the Wolves could improve from the Mid 20’s to Low teens in both areas. Bringing a 24 win team to around a 40 win team. You would still be young enough and have enough assests to readjust further going forward.
Sessions is better than some people think
but not good enought to break the bank. Best of all, he’s young. But his agent says he wants to go to a “winner.” Portland?
Childress is intriguing, especially if he is intent on coming back to the U.S. It seems the Hawks could only keep either him or Williams, freeing up one for the Wolves. But if Childress isn’t tired of gyros yet, he has a lot of leverage.
You also bring up a good point about turning a 24 win team into a 40 win team. I think their realistic goal is to improve by about ten wins per year for the next three years—any faster and they might end up in salary cap and money-losing hell.
Just to Clairfy
WOW had us as a 30 Win Team prior to the Jefferson Injury. I really think Curry and Childress make this team 10 wins better next year. The best part about this as opposed to trading for Richard Jefferson is their is room to grow with pieces here and there. I think this could be the nuclues of a high 50 win team by 2011-2012. The thing I like about my modest off-season is that it still leaves a ton of options going forward.
by Jose Cordoba on May 28, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Great work
I would hope that there would be a report this detailed floating around the Wolves offices, but it wouldn’t shock me if there weren’t.
Since I agree with just about everything you’ve got here, I’ll only offer up what I disagree with (you’re welcome!).
1. “No” to any players in their late 20s, unless we’re going to make a run at it, and get 2 or 3 more veterans to fill out the starting line-up.
2. “Maybe” on Hinrich, but the Bulls are in dire enough straits (especially if they sign Gordon) that Hinrich can be had for expirings, just like he almost was at the deadline (but there was an ingenious Hinrich-Deng-Noah for Miller-AlJeff-Smith-Foye trade floating around here a few days ago that I’m really starting to warm to!).
3. “Absolutely” on Paul, including just about anything the Hornets want, and want to send back. I would even include their choice of Love or Jefferson, if it meant we could keep a pick or two (to then pair with another expiring, and trade for another veteran).
4. “No” to Tony Parker. I love the guy, but I don’t think the Spurs will trade him for almost any price, and if the Wolves go after him and then stand pat, the team as it is will likely peter out at the 6-7-8 seed in the West before Parker’s miles start to catch up with him (although, I could envision a three-team trade with the Hornets, Spurs, and Wolves, that might bring Paul to S.A., and Parker here.
I still am curious about Flip being in Washington, and how that might help/hurt the chance of making a trade. If he lusts after a Wolves player who doesn’t play 4ward, he must have seen something that we didn’t (although Miller would fit in well with what the Wiz are trying to do, both in skill and age).
Certainly like the Washington trade + AK47
in A-Zombie Piranha Ball. If we are talking about Harden landing in Minneapolis, then Foye, who has a similar skill set, enters another showdown as he did with McCants.
Wouldn’t be keen to deal with Milwaukee, nothing to see here. Move on.
I don’t mind Kirk Hinrich, but trading pick 6 with the 3/4 of our expiring deals seems steep.
I'm really big on the...
… Washington trade bit that keeps getting brought up around here. Although a small part of me keeps wondering why we’d want two picks in this draft of all drafts. Even so, coming up with any two of the Harden/Curry/DeRozan/Evans bunch still seems like a good way to go forward for this team. We’ll see if Kahn and the FO try to pursue the option. It’d be a hell of a way for Kahn to leave an early imprint on this team’s makeup.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on May 28, 2009 11:05 PM CDT reply actions
Even though I posted a proposal in another threat to get the third pick
I agree with the sentiment that I’m not sure trading assets to get another mid-lotto pick in this draft is the wisest course. It’s easy to dream on these guys, but a lot of them won’t work out, and very few will be true stars. There’s a more than negligible chance that neither guy the Wolves pick will turn out to be really worthwhile.
It’s a classic reaction. For months we were talking about how weak this draft was, then all of a sudden we want more picks. The thrill of the unknown. We all know what’s wrong with the players already in the league that we might trade for, we don’t know what’s wrong with the incoming rookies.
by Eric in Madison on May 28, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Blockbuster deal of the summer...
Craig Smith to NJ for Josh Boone + “cash considerations.”
by SuperVillian on May 29, 2009 1:58 AM CDT reply actions
Wow...
This is a great starting point for finding trade partners. I’m really liking the way you broke down team values as a way of finding potential trade partners. I don’t really have any comments on the specific trades, they all have positives and negatives about them, but something that stood out to me in the post is the following… “Philosophy-wise, it would be balls-to-the-wall up tempo basketball”.
I don’t see this working with the sluggish Al Jefferson and Kevin Love meandering down the court. As an examply, the Suns had a hard enough time running with Shaq trying to keep up, imagine 2 slow bigs trying to play “balls-to-the-wall.”
I also want to point to an interview with Sam Presti.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=12786
Specifically this part "In an interview with Sports Business Journal shortly after accepting the GM job, Presti said his vision for the team was to 1) establish an identity for the team, 2) establish the kind of players they want and, 3) establish the style of play they want.
I did a fan post earlier trying to portray my philosophy in team building (surprisingly, it ends up being very similar to what Presti believes). I focused more on the abstract ideas like team identity and philosophy and style of play rather than specific player movement, etc. I caught some flak for suggesting a team identity was key to building a franchise and wanted to see what people think after hearing what Presti had to say.
If he (and by extension, myself) is right and the identity of the team is the first key piece, what should that identity be for the Wolves?
I completely agree..
….with Presti: you need to create an identity. I think the Wolves have a group of players that could form themselves into not a 7SOL type of fast break team, but rather one that is able to set up in the 1/2 court quicker than anyone else as well as taking advantage of available transition opportunities. The key for them is increasing the number of their possessions by focusing on their strengths: rebounding, interior scoring, and (hopefully, with the addition of Curry alongside Miller and Foye) premier jump shooting. Quick outlets (which are far more effective in the long run than the home run passes), setting up in the post with less than 10 seconds off the shot clock, spot-up jump shot opportunities in transition…stuff like that. They need to be the quickest setting up team in the league. I know the conventional wisdom is that they need a slasher, but I think they need a point that can shoot the lights out and run the pick and roll.
They were put together in a pretty weird fashion. It is what it is and I think a solid identity can still be formed out of McHale’s mess. I don’t think they should try to look like every other team; they need to go all-in on whatever identity they have, and that is an offensively-minded, in-and-out, up-and-down style of play. They could just scrap it all and draft a guy like Thabeet and go the pound-it/grind-it-out route but a) that would be boring, b) it would be boring, and c) it would be boring. It also probably would require more of a re-tooling than would simply going for Curry, a backup 4/5, and signing a free agent or two. They have a chance to try a new way of winning. It may not work and it probably won’t be enough to get over the hump in a league dominated by superstars, but short of getting lucky and landing the next LeBron/D-Wade/etc, I think it’s their best and most realistic shot.
Here’s how I would fashion a generic roster around Love and Jefferson:
Guards:
- Excellent shooter who is solid on the ball and can run the pick and roll
- Backup who can run the offense
- Long athletic defender who can rebound and play in transition
- 3 point specialist; ideally with length
Forwards:
- Long athletic defender who can rebound and block shots; ideally, with defensive flexibility across 2-3 different positions; added bonus if he can put the ball on the floor as a threat to slash
- Perimeter shooter who can rebound
Bigs:
- Long athletic backup who can guard both the 4 and 5; defensive specialist
- A masher of heads
The big key here is getting a guard that can handle a massive load as well as finding a long 3 that can play defense and rebound. Right now the Wolves have some players who fit some of these descriptions but are probably in need of an upgrade. Getting as close to the model with current personnel, here is what I view as being a somewhat realistic rotation along these lines:
1- Curry/Bassy
2- Brewer/Foye/Miller
3- Kirilinko/Miller/Brewer/Gomes
4- Love/(Gortat/Chandler/Dalembert/insert-your-own-big-here)
5- Jefferson/see above big note
Noah would have been fantastic at the backup 4/5. Again, the key with this idea is to have a guard who can be on the ball for a massive amount of possessions while being able to shoot from outside and run the pick and roll. This is the biggest reason why I’ve been on the Curry bandwagon for a long, long time; he’s a perfect fit for this club. The starting 2 and 3 should be the places where you put your long, athletic jack-of-all-trades. Their primary functions are to defend, rebound, and score in available transition opportunities, but the more they can do, the better. Ideally, both of them could defend 2-3 positions. With Brewer and Kirilinko, the Wolves could have 2 guys who could guard multiple positions and make up for some of the problems associated with starting 2 sub-6’10" power forwards/centers.
The big assumption here is that the need for additional ball handling would be mitigated by increased transition opportunities generated by superior rebounding as well as having a point forward (hopefully) in Love who should be placed near the top of the key and allowed to pick and roll/pick and pop away when he’s not swinging the ball or entering it to Big Al.
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This is the most persuasive you've been
in my view in favor of Curry, who has been scaring me from the start. I’m less adamantly against it now, though I question the “solid on the ball” aspect of his game.
Still, someone told me to go watch him again with this comparison in mind: Sam Cassell with 3 point range. That’s certainly possible, and if that’s what he is, of course you take him. I’m still not sold on the ball handling, but I’ve been wrong so many times it might as well be my middle name.
By the way, and I know you go to war with the army you have, not strapping Donald Rumsfeld to a 2000 pound bomb, but I always cringe when I see these proposed going forward lineups with Corey Brewer as a starting player. Yikes.
I think they’d need another shooter…but it’s an interesting approach.
by Eric in Madison on May 29, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
"always upgrading"
Should be the MO outside of Love and Jefferson (and hopefully Curry). One of my biggest pet peeves is the “he’s not a player you can build a championship team around” argument. The vast majority of teams in the league fit this bill and the most they can hope for sans a LeBron is to a) get good in a weak year and b) upgrade every position to as close to average as possible, from the front to the end of the bench. In other words, you hope to be Detroit. If you don’t have 1 super-duper player or 3 stars, then you’re SOL. The Wolves traded away one star, blew their chance at drafting another, and now they’re going to have to go the Detroit/Houston route: surround their best player (who isn’t a 1a type of guy) with as many above average players as possible. Curry upgrades Bassy. AK47 would upgrade Gomes. Foye and Miller get to drop into positions where they would be relatively above average. For better or worse, Love and Big Al are the best known quantities they can get a hold of and they a) shouldn’t let go and b) build around them as best they can.
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I totally agree with this
and had a long argument about it with Poordick in a previous thread—you can’t wait around to get the next LeBron and just throw up your hands if you don’t. You have to keep getting better however you can. The argument against this is that you don’t want to max out as a 45 win team that has used up its flexibility and assets to get to that point and then are stuck in limbo as a 7th-8th seed in the playoffs.
But really, what’s the alternative? you have to be smart, you have to not overpay, but you have to get better. There aren’t many more 24 win seasons this team can really weather.
by Eric in Madison on May 29, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
45-55 wins..
….with a fun product to watch = success. Anything extra requires luck.
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Or taking advantage of an idiot GM/owner.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 29, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Spot on...
with this analysis… “The key for them is increasing the number of their possessions by focusing on their strengths: rebounding, interior scoring, and (hopefully, with the addition of Curry alongside Miller and Foye) premier jump shooting. Quick outlets (which are far more effective in the long run than the home run passes), setting up in the post with less than 10 seconds off the shot clock, spot-up jump shot opportunities in transition…stuff like that. They need to be the quickest setting up team in the league. I know the conventional wisdom is that they need a slasher, but I think they need a point that can shoot the lights out and run the pick and roll.”
I think this philosophy meshes with the abilities of the players very well. The Wolves haven’t had a p’n’r type player since maybe Terrell Brandon and in the NBA, this is a huge disadvantage. You’re arguments have really made me lean towards Curry as the #6 pick. His skill set is unique to the team and seems like it would really compliment what we are already working with, assuming our bigs learn to set a decent pick (more so Al than Love). Thanks for mentioning the “conventional wisdom” part with a slasher too. This team really needs to stay away from conventional thinking and go their own route.
To the McHale mess point, I like to call this team the Island of Misfit Toys as we are a team where defective or unwanted players are sent.
McHale played the King Moonracer role to a tee, flying around the NBA at night looking for unwanted players. Mike Miller is Bird Fish, a shooter who dribbles instead of shoots. Randy Foye is A Dolly for Sue, he looks normal on the outside, but he suffers psychologically because he feels unloved by the fans. Al Jefferson is Trainer, a train with square wheels on its caboose (at least that is how he looks when he runs). I could go on, but that would just be weird…
by Minneapleseed on May 29, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I always thought...
….that we should have an “It’s not you, Randy” night at the Target Center. By all accounts he’s a fantastic person and an asset to the community and any team that has him and views/uses him correctly. The guy has the potential to be a fantastic 6th man or even a nice off guard with the right point guard. He seems too proud to step away from the BS that was hoisted upon him by McHale…i.e. being a point in the NBA. There is no shame in this for him, only McHale.
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Exactly...
Randy needs us to back him up and stop comparing him to Roy at every opportunity (something that happens less here than other Wolves forums). He gets it bad enough from Al on the court (adding to the unloved feeling) and Witt rode him hard when he was here.
Randy needs a collective hug from Wolves fans.
by Minneapleseed on May 29, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
He needs a collective hug AND the type of talent around him that will take pressure off him to be something he isn’t. Once that happens and he can play a role he’s suited to playing, he’ll thrive. Hopefully we can go a long way towards doing so this offseason. Poor guy’s just always had too much expected of him..
That’s great stuff SnP, especially the team identity. Makes you kind of pull for a Curry/Daye draft, no?
I would definitely take that draft
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Kahn's Philosophy
Biz of Basketball Interview with David Kahn
Interesting Notes:
- Wants to place more of an emphasis on pro-scouting
- Wants rookies who can contribute immediately
- Will use statistics and analytics
This is exactly the kind of thinking we need from Kahn -- is he up to it?
Good stuff, SnP! However, I don’t see Jefferson fitting in on your balls-to-the-wall uptempo squad. Think about it: By the time Al jogs to the other end of the floor, the up-tempo guys have already shot the basketball. One option is, re-do the Bulls trade to include Al and get both Noah and Hinrich in return. Another option is, trade Al for the best young up-temp PG you can find. Probably Rondo.
My bottom line: The Wolves have the pieces to either draft or trade for several different kinds of basketball teams. They need a guy with a plan. McHale was obviously not the guy. Is Kahn?
That's not his point...
It’s not balls to the wall, it’s score quickly in the halfcourt and take advantage of transition opportunities. I understand that he doesn’t look graceful, but I think they’d better to try this style with him first and make him prove to them that he can’t do it. When they’ve played uptempo teams in the past (Phoenix, the D’Antoni Knicks), he’s had monster games (35-plus pts).
I don’t know if SnP would agree with this, but this style of play is something they’ve been doing to a certain extent already; they just can’t keep it up against more-athletic and/or disciplined teams.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 29, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
CP3
I am not a huge Baseketball fan or watcher but I love the organalzational side of sports and this blog definitely fits the bill. I was wondering if a package of 6th pick, Al Jeff and Foye is even close enough to consider getting Paul in retur? And if it is does a team of Paul and Love with other spare parts good enough to contend? Thanks in advance
Trade questions
1. The only way NO trades Chris Paul is if the Wolves assume terrible contracts (Posey, Peja) along with him. So the dynamics of such a trade would need to be expanded quite a bit. As far as the package descibed I doubt it as a fit. The problem would be NO’s 2 best players currently on their roster would be 4-5’S (David West and Tyson Chandler) Chandler will probably be able to be traded sometime next year.
2. Could this team contend- perhaps. I think the issue would be the quality of the spare parts which involves serious talent evaluation of undervalued talent.
by Jose Cordoba on May 29, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for reading....
….I would have to say that it wouldn’t work from NOLA’s perspective because it wouldn’t clear enough salary off the books. If they move Paul, part of the reason for doing so will be to combine him with guys like Peja, Chandler, or Posey in order to wipe off some of the huge contracts that are really causing them problems. That would certainly be the best talent-based package the Wolves could offer, but moving Paul has to give NOLA some financial benefit. That’s at least how I view their predicament.
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Where I would disagree is that the McHale didn't have a plan
1. The Wolves were clearly trying to build a team around Big Al by having Floor Spacers (McCants, Foye, Miller- Mayo-if he had been kept) attempting to create fewer double teams for Al. The Love trade was valuable because it made them a much better rebounding team as well as bringing in a top-flight shooter. The identity of the team was clearly offensively oriented with Brewer hopefully developing into the type of wing- you describe. The big problem was regression by shooters (Gomes included)- this was as big for this season as Al’s injury. In fact this plan made enough sense prior to the season that you had John Hollinger considering them a serious sleeper in the WC. Shooting decline combined with Al’s injury is what dropped the Wolves from a 40 win team to a 24 win team. WOW made similar points around the Al Injury.
Defense is overrated as a factor this season- since the Wolves with their personnel were never going to big a great defensive team. It was this decline in shooting that is the reason- McHale is no longer the GM. The one month the team shot the ball well- they had a really solid month.
Where I think this plan needs to be adjusted is they need more emphasis on perimeter defenders (With Al and K.Love as your front-court) and better shooting.
I go back and forth...
….on whether or not McHale had a plan. If he did have one, it either was incomplete or he failed miserably in its execution. I think the biggest argument against him having a plan is the hiring of Witt. They may have had the personnel for spacing and whatnot, but they failed to put a coach in place who would actually run something according to plan. Granted, Witt was fired, but it should have been obvious from the get-go that he wasn’t the man for the job.
I think the perimeter defense aspect of this is helped along by 2 long and athletic players at the 2 and 3. I’m obviously not comparing talent, but 2 big guys like MJ and Pippen are how you make an undersized team without a real center play defense.
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The Bulls always had big centers, though...
They just weren’t good. They stashed their rosters with extra big men (Cartwright, Wennington, Longley, King, Robert Parish, John Salley, Will Perdue, Scott Williams, Dickey Simpkins, Jason Caffey, Corie Blount, James Edwards, Joe Kleine, Brian Williams/Bison Dele,). Rodman was an undersized power forward, but Horace Grant was about as protoypical as can be. They always made sure they had size/length in the frontcourt.
I agree with the general premise that perimeter defenders should be a premium for this team. I don’t think Love and Jefferson would necessarily be bad defenders if there were better ones around them. Look at a guy like ’Melo.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 29, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
It should be noted
When Witt got fired they started to change thier style to mesh with these methods. The big problem was all the shooting regression.
by Jose Cordoba on May 29, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
For the 100th Time- Josh Childress, Josh Childress, Josh Childress
He’s longer than Tyreke Evans but a much, much more efficient Offensive player. He is also a possible target in a Sign and Trade.
What type of trade do you propose
Atlanta currently has $40.8 Million committed to 09-10.
They have
Bibby UFA
Williams RFA – $7.3 Million qualifying offer not counted in the cap number above
Childress RFA
Depth Chart
Claxton/Law
Joe Johnson/Evans
Josh Smith
Josh Smith
Al Horford/Morris
They definitely need help at the 3 and 4 positions, with the rights to both Williams and Childress they have to sign one of those guys. They need depth at PF and C. And they have to decide whether to pay Bibby, stick with Claston and Law as a band-aid, or go elsewhere. I think it’s clear that Childress is the better player over Marvin Williams, I would rather keep Childress as a Hawks fan. I just don’t know what we have to offer them to do the sign and trade besides the #18 and Pekovic and even then they would have to take back salary and pay that player in order to acquire those rights.
What’s your proposal?
He makes an appearance...
…in part iv of this series ;)
He, Sessions, Hedo, and Gortat are the free agents I think will be the most effective signings. I have no idea how Orlando is going to work things out with Hedo and Gortat both up for free agency. I do wonder if Atlanta will match any offer or if they would consider a Foye for Childress sign and trade.
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PS:
Here’s the ideal roster from the last post in this series:
- Big Al
- Andrei Kirilinko
- Big Piranha
- Mike Miller
- Stephen Curry
- Austin Daye
- Corey Brewer
- Sebastian Telfair
- Josh Childress
- Sheldon Williams (signed to 2 year contract worth between $2.5-3 mil/year)
- Nick Calathes
- Victor Claver
They fill out any remaining spots with D-Leaguers or rookie free agent contracts. Calathes and Claver could be sent to Europe. All in all, it’s about $57.5 mil, fairly realistic, and as effective as I think they can get. They get Kirilinko with a deal involving Cardinal, Madsen, Gomes and Smith. If that’s not enough, they give back the 1st rounder or re-do the restrictions on the pick to be more favorable to the Jazz. They get Childress with a sign and trade with Foye. Rotation is as follows:
1- Curry/Bassy
2— Childress/Miller/Brewer
3- AK47/Brewer/Daye
4- Love/Williams/rookie big
5- Jefferson/Williams/rookie big
Obviously, this would leave them thin in the frontcourt and it would mean that they have to go out and get someone like Pops to fill out the roster for the year while they wait on (hopefully) Pekovic. They would also maintain a nice expiring contract in Miller that could be moved near the trading deadline to a team looking to unload a player or pick.
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Would the Hawks deal Childress...
If the Wolves offered to take Claxton’s contract back? He’s been set back by injuries but was a very effective player before going to the Hawks.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 30, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I really have no idea...
….if they’d even match. It will be kind of interesting to see how it plays out. I think he’d definitely be worth a look just with a contract offer.
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Good Breakdown
Gomes/18 would seem to be a steal of a trade. This gives the Hawks a 4/3 hybird that could be of good use. If they wanted Rhino this would be something that could be addressed also at this time. Miller would be a possibility if they had interest although I doubt it.
I struggle to understand why you think the Wizards want Randy Foye
Any backup to Arenas, assuming he’s healthy, won’t play all that much unless it is in tandem with Arenas. That defensive backcourt would absolutely stink. And to give up JaVale McGee, our top prospect, for it is just silly.
I’m open to a swap of Miller and Thomas, but I’d prefer to get a pick back too. Maybe 18. Miller works a lot better than Foye.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I can think of a reason
And that would be when Gilbert goes down in Weak 1 with his annual season ending injury, Foye steps in and takes his place, and you get Miller who helps on the wing.
Finally, I think you may be misunderstanding the value of Pekovic. Assuming you are able to bring him over, and that’s a big if, I think he is a better player than McGee.
Really?
You know McGee posted a 17 PER at age 21 in the NBA, right? You also know he has a ridiculous wingspan, right?
Honestly, what’s the point of swapping prospects like that? What’s the upside for the Wizards?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Based on your comment
I think it’s clear you don’t know anything about Pekovic otherwise you would have responded to what I wrote, specifically that I think Pekovic is a better player. I never said that McGee was a terrible prospect, I also don’t think you should use PER for a player that played as little as McGee. When a player plays more minutes its more than likely some of those are against the starters of the opposition and it takes more energy to play more minutes. He played great in 15 minutes a game. That’s a great start.
I’m fine with keeping Pekovic in the trade scenario, putting him in for an exchange of McGee is a better deal for the wizards.
Since you seem to be enamoured with PER, check out Pekovic’s stats in the Euro League
In 18 Minutes of play Pekovic’s PER was 27.2.
Double the points and the same rebounds as McGee.
I don't really know much about Pekovic
So I’ll plead a little ignorance there. I do know a lot about McGee and I can tell you that, while he’s extremely raw, he deserved more than 15 minutes a game. Poor coaching really hurt the Wiz this year.
Regardless, I don’t see the upside for the swap from the Wizards end. At best, they are comparable prospects. Swapping McGee for Pekovic does not, in any way, shape, or form, qualify as a “sweetner” for me or, frankly, for Wizards management. It’s unbelievably unrealistic.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I didn't know you speak for Wizards management
But it’s all good. We all have our opinions and it’s fun to share them. Although I do think McGee is a good propsect, I would just be weary as far as overvaluing players on the team you follow just because you get to see them a lot.
Beasley, Oden, Speights, Lopez and Love all put a better PER than McGee while playing more minutes. Most of these players are Younger than McGee. McGee does have a nice wingspan and defensive potential, but to say the 6th most productive rookie big man based on PER is untouchable seems a little far fetched to me.
I don't speak for Wiz management
But when they refuse to trade him to move up for Rubio, I think it’s a pretty clear sign that they value him more than a swap for Pekovic.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
What I heard
Is the wizards came out and said there was no truth to the Rumor of McGee + #5 for #3. It was never McGee straight up for Rubio as you mention.
Further, it’s one thing to squash rumors so as not to hurt your players feelings, it’s another thing to think that the deal was actually on the table and Wizards management considered it and said “You know what, we like Javale too much to do a deal like that.”
I don’t take rumors started 2 days after the draft lottery as serious trade proposals, and that’s all I think the Wizards management was saying.
Right, it was McGee and 5 for Rubio
But the proposal S&P is offering up is essentially McGee and 5 for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. If McGee/5 isn’t worth Rubio, I don’t see why it’s worth Foye and Miller when Foye doesn’t fit at all for the Wizards.
We’re going back and forth here, so that’s all I’ll say about this. If we were talking about Andray Blatche instead of McGee, my tune would be much different.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I give up
Because you don’t know anything about Pekovic, therefore the deal is essentially Foye+Miller for McGee + 5. No need to respond…
I dont' want to speak up for Mike
Since he knows the Wizards a lot better than I do. I do really appreciate his perspective. I can say in all probability that if McGee was in this year’s draft- he’s probably a bottom half of the Top 10 pick. So the Wolves would be getting 2 top 10 picks for players that I hear very little love for on this site. As far as Pekovic it’s really hard to assess his value.
1. We’re unsure if he will come over despite what the Wolves FO says.
2. He averages between 15-18 minutes per game in Europe because of Defensive issues.
3. He’s a tremendously efficent player leading Europe in PER.
4. If both McGee and Pekovic were in the draft and Pekovic was willing to come over- I’m really not sure who goes first.
Lastly- Thomas and 18 for Miller and 5 seems reasonable from both teams pespectives.
by Jose Cordoba on May 29, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you're vastly overvaluing McGee...
….in relation to Pekovic, both in terms of performance and the Wizards’ current relation to the luxury cap. McGee may be a very nice player but the Wiz seem to be in a win-now mode and Flip a) isn’t going to go with a young player and b) will prefer a guy like Haywood anyway. You guys have a coach who loves screens and mid-range jump shots and who never developed a solid center (Rasho maybe) during his time with the Wolves. Foye is destined to be a 6th man and he gives an insurance policy to Arenas…who should go down sometime in November.
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There are several problems with this premise, S&P
And I really like your work, but you’re missing a lot here.
1. McGee can fetch a much better return than Randy Foye. Hell, there was talk just a few weeks ago that he could fetch Ricky Rubio. There aren’t too many 21-year olds with his potential that posted a 17 PER in their rookie seasons. This is regardless of his future role with the Wizards. I agree that he may not develop much under Flip, but that doesn’t mean he should be given away for a player that doesn’t fit.
2. Why would we trade for Gilbert Arenas insurance when we could just use our 5th pick on Stephen Curry or Tyreke Evans?
3. Trading significant assets for Arenas insurance is a poor use of assets. If Arenas is healthy, you’ve just wasted assets. If Arenas isn’t, well, you weren’t going to be very good anyway. You could sign someone cheaply to fill Arenas’ minutes if he isn’t healthy, or just use the second-round pick on a young point guard. There’s no need to trade for a backup point guard.
4. Abe Pollin has continually said he’s willing to go over the tax for this team. Why he wants to do that, I’ll never know, but the tax isn’t nearly as big a consideration as you make it out to be.
5. Your proposed trade doesn’t actually save the Wizards all that much money, unless the Wizards don’t bring Pekovic over. Etan Thomas and Mike Miller expire in the same year, and Foye costs just as much as McGee and Pecherov. Now, it’s true Foye is up for an extension sooner, but that puts the Wizards in a major bind in 2010, when they need to focus most of their efforts on re-signing Haywood. You now have Haywood, Foye and Miller up for new contracts. You could let both Foye and Miller go, but then you’ve traded away the fifth pick and your top prospect for one-year rentals. Or, you could re-sign all of them and be way, way over the tax, way more than you would have been.
6. The Wizards already have enough backup guards on the roster, between Foye, Javaris Crittenton, DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young. You trade for Foye, you’re cutting into Javaris and Nick’s minutes. Which wouldn’t be awful, but once again, it’s a poor use of assets. The better thing to do would be to find a better fit to play alongside Arenas.
So I’m more open to Miller than Foye, because Miller would cost less. Miller and 18 for Etan and 5 works for me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Alternatively, we could include Gomes and allow you to keep 18
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I should probably re-post
A terrific article Mike wrote on Wizards trade scenarios on this blog’s sister site.
http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/5/22/883698/trade-scenarios-from-atlanta-to
by Jose Cordoba on May 29, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Where was the talk about McGee and Rubio?
McGee is a project center who averaged 15 mpg in his first year in the league on one of the worst teams in the league. He is a very nice player but not a win-now kind of guy. I still think you are massively, massively, massively overvaluing him in relation to Pekovic and Rubio.
You make a good point with #2 and they definitely could go that route…or pick up a more established player (or two) for a team that is in win-now mode.
Foye or no Foye, I think the Wizards and Wolves are solid trade partners for the needs of both team. Whether that means Miller + Gomes + Pekovic or a deal with Foye, the Wizards are in need of guys that can contribute now and they have a young player in McGee that could be of value to a team like the Wolves with a longer performance horizon. McGee has tons of potential but considering the lack of development shown on that squad with other younger players like Young and Blatche, and considering their need to win soon, and considering Flip’s style, and considering that a guy like Pekovic is probably right there with McGee in terms of where they would be drafted if they were in this year’s draft, I think that his relative worth is not to the point where he should table any potential deal with the Wolves.
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I didn't say that
I think that his relative worth is not to the point where he should table any potential deal with the Wolves.
Careful. The objection here is including Randy Foye and thinking you’ll get McGee back. That’s too much, and I honestly think any proposal to bring McGee back that doesn’t include Love or Jefferson is greedy. The Wiz have no use for Randy Foye and Miller can be had for much less. Putting Ryan Gomes in the deal probably gets you back a different young guy, or, better yet, eliminates the need to include one of your later picks. Throwing Pekovic into the deal doesn’t do much for me because it presents the same problems that you’ve discussed. We at least know McGee has shown potential in this league, whereas we don’t know when Pekovic is coming over or how well he’ll play here. Why would swapping one raw prospect for a rawer prospect somehow make the trade more worthwhile?
That’s all I’m trying to say here. I do think Minnesota and Washington are good trade partners, and I’ve already endorsed a Miller for the fifth pick swap, both here and in the post Jose linked to.
And there was definitely talk involving Rubio for McGee and 5 here. The Wizards denied it here.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I really appreciate your perspective
And I agree, you may not have a need for Foye, so you don’t need to include him a deal. I alo disagree with SNP in that I don’t see a need to swing for the fences and try to get McGee in the deal.
I would be willing to do Miller + Gomes for Thomas, Songaila + #5 + Change. I think that would net the Bullets two players to win now and if Gomes performs a reasonable team option to retain him. The Wolves would take back your junk and even grab another year of Songaila’s contract off your hands, opening up more minutes for McGee.
I'd be down for that deal
Miller and Gomes for Thomas, Songaila, 5 and Pecherov works for me. I’d rather give up DeShawn Stevenson instead of Songaila, since we’d now have a major logjam in the backcourt with Miller, Stevenson, Nick Young, Crittenton, Dominic McGuire, etc, but Songaila’s not a deal breaker.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I hear ya..
….and appreciate the perspective. We really liked that trade post. My take on this wasn’t so much that Foye gets McGee; rather, that Pekovic would.
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Thanks
I don’t mean to rain on your parade, and I came in here pretty confrontational. My apologies.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
aint not thang
the internets have the tendency to make mountains out of molehills
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If Atlanta wants Foye
To quote Cosmo Kramer: “Giddie Up”
With Johnson, Evans, Claxton and Law already signed and with Bibby probably wanted to re-sign, I don’t think Foye would be attractive to the Hawks.
yes...
…but evans, claxton and law suck. a lot. i do agree it’s not a perfect fit. i just don’t know if they’ll let him walk for nothing.
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SnP Gotta make a correction on something you said (minor but important) with regards to Paul
First of all, CP3 has a poison pill provision that resets his contract on July 1st.
Uh, I don’t really know what that means. When July 1st he becomes a Base Year Compensated player. That comes about because he got the extension.
The PPP status comes when you have a player who signs an extension like Paul did, and it creates trade value that is actually higher than the dollar amount the team (in the case of the Hornets) is paying him. This is all done to keep any team from taking him.
It will be much easier to acquire him once he’s BYC simply because you have to have the cap space/player to do that.
I liked the recap though. Very interesting thought provoking stuff.
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That's an interesting team...
…because there were some rumors about some pretty heavy financial issues with the franchise. They just gave Granger a bunch of money and Dunleavy seems like a guy who is always hurt but I don’t know enough about their front office or finances to say whether or not they need to move someone. I do know that you could get Tinsley for very little ;)
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Very Little from Indiana of Appeal
Unless Jeff Foster as he approaches his mid 30’s does a lot for you. They could also maybe assume Tinsley’s contract to move up from 18 to 13. TJ Ford doesn’t really excite me that much.
by Jose Cordoba on May 31, 2009 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
first ever post
To begin with, SNP, I am a long time reader of yours here and on Britt’s column. Love everything you guys are doing. Truly good reads.
That being said, concerning this offseason, I don’t see the Wolves making any huge roster turnovers. By that, I mean don’t expect a blockbuster deal. Kahn will have only been in charge for a little over a month by the time the draft rolls around, and though he may have something up his sleeve, history tells us that a new guy in charge rarely blows a team up right off the bat. Kahn may make a move, but I don’t think it will be to move up. I believe the Wolves will stand firm at 6 and 18, and try and move some expirings and the 28 for a veteran. Here’s how I see it unfolding:
#6. Harden or DeRozan. Whichever is left, with Harden being the first choice. This of course means the Wolves again have a logjam at the 2, but they will address that in short time. Both make sense to me here.
#18. Most like BPA, though I’m sure they’ll be hoping for Daye. His length and potential at the 3 will be way too intriguing to pass up. I look at him like Reggie Miller.
#28. Trade. No way they’re bringing in 3 rookies. I would love a trade with the Bulls for Kirk Heinrich including the 28th pick, and expiring contracts. Maybe Foye or Miller too.
If this all falls into place, it sets us up for the future quite nicely in SNP’s fast transition offense. Scoring and rebounding would be key as would team defense. Picture this:
PG. Heinrich/ Bassy.
SG. Harden/Foye/Miller
SF. Gomes/Brewer/Daye
PF. Love/Gomes/Smith
C. Jefferson/garbage
This lineup would presume they would be playing for Pekovic to come over in 2010 or potentially going after Cole Aldrich next year if they don’t think Pekovic is coming. Here’s how it would eventually look:
PG. Heinrich/Bassy
SG. Harden/Foye or Miller/Brewer
SF. Daye/Brewer
PF. Love/Jefferson
C. Jefferson/Aldrich or Pekovic
With a starting lineup of Kirk, Harden, Daye, Love and Jefferson they have outside scoring, penetration, rebounding and team defense all at above average levels. Their rotation would consist of Bassy, Brewer, one of the aforementioned bigs, and a wing scorer. Give them a year to play together and I think this team is a contender. Just one man’s thought…..
good stuff...
…and thanks for reading and commenting. I do think there is definitely something to be said about standing pat with any new contracts until they clear a ton of money off the books. There may even be something to be said about bringing in a large deal that expires in 11; that way, they miss out on the mess in 10 and can make another signing the year after that. It will be very interesting to see what happens with pekovic.
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Few Thoughts
1. I doubt the Wolves move up. I just don’t think they probably have the AMMO to get it done to get Rubio. I shouldn’t put it quiet like this- I don’t know that what they would have to give up is worth trading up for Rubio. Probably the Best the Wolves could offer to swap picks is something that takes back Buckner and Jaric for Expirings along with number 18. Knowing how cheap Heisley is this might not be beyond the pale of possibilities.
2. If the Wolves trade a pick- I actually think 18 is the most likely to be moved. I see very few teams have a lot of interest in the 28 pick (Guarnateed). The only exceptions would be a team being in love with a player or committed to take a Foreign Prospect.
3. I tend to be of the mindset that Harden probably won’t be on the Board when they pick. Although Chad Ford has had him going to the Wolves in his last 2 mocks.
4. I honestly don’t know what to think about Austin Daye. On the one hand he’s skilled and quite efficient to go with awesome length for a three. At the same time he’s really lacking lateral quickness and strength at the NBA level. Hopefully as he recovers more from an ACL injury he improves in this area. Although in a weak draft- he probably has as much upside as anybody at 18.
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