“new school”—and Lindsay turning Glen down is a bitter pill, I think this article is pretty unfair. Wade and Butler were the last really good players chosen in their resppective lotteries; it’s not so easy to get that right.

Further, getting Wight and Cook “respectable NBA talents” with picks around 20 IS pretty impressive, actually. They gathered the talent necessary to make the Shaq trade, which resulted in a championship, then were able to unload his insane salary when he became an albatross. They came up with Haslem. Chalmers. They made the playoffs after a disaster year.

It is hard to tell how much is Pfund and how much Riley, but one should note that Riley was developing and using advanced stats in LA and New York before Sam Presti was born, so one assumes Pfund might have learned something about it.

.. in the Ricky Davis, Mark Blount trade with the trade where McHale & Stack completely fleeced Miami. If so, I want nothing to do with him.

by Taylor and everyone else. Despite testaments from statiscians and the beleif that teams like San Antonio and Portland are run by geniuses with plans, I will never buy it. Its like that old saying that coachs (or quarterbacks) get way too much credit when a team wins and way too much blame when the team loses.

This is definately true, in my opinion with the recent tenure of Kevin McHale,d espite all the evidence you can compile of mistakes he made. I will continue to believe that the Timberwolves have been more victims of bad luck than bad decision making. I especially cringe when I hear pundits (Dan Barriero) say that the Wolves need a GM hire that injects enthusiasm to the Fan base (yeah, just like Jack McCloskey once did). No, the WOlves need to stay the course. They’ve assembled draft picks, set up their roster and salary cap position, and have a core player to build around with some role players to boot. They don’t need a new GM star to come in and move these pieces around. They need some luck.

I don’t know how smart Hoiberg is either, but we shouldn’t forget that the man making the decisions the last time Minneapolis had a world Championship basketball team was Sir Sidney — do you think Sid accomplished this with brains or a bit of good luck?

No saviour is going to come and save the day with stats in hand from SA, Portland, Indiana, Houston or wherever. WHatever happens with the Wolves, success or failure, it will be a result of what has already been laid in place and luck. Hell, hire me as GM and let me read Canis for my evaluation of players, rosters and coaches and with a bit of luck, I might be able to emulate Sid and build another Minnesota basketball dynasty.

No idea why we didn’t start this GM search in December. I’m to the point where I don’t trust anyone from outside the organization that they would bring in this close to the draft. With a few minor exceptions, I’ve liked the moves the Wolves have made since they fleeced Miami in the Ricky Davis trade. As an outsider, I have no rational explanation for this, but I’ve associated the good moves of the past few years with Stack (and/or Hoiberg) having more of a say in things. I probably do not believe that Stack and/or Hoiberg are the best long term options, but I trust the two of their decisionmaking enough to think they’re not going to screw up the draft – which is more than I can say for Pfund or Kahn who likely haven’t been scouting the draft any more than a fool like myself.

1. Is we ulitmately don’t know how to evaluating a potential GM hire. It’s a lot easier to evalute someone like Kirk Hinrich since their’s some tangible their to evaluate. In evaluating something like this-we’re basically just making guesses based on past association. For a guy like Pfund- we really have very little clue how much input he had on various moves as a GM considering the presence of Pat Riley. We can’t even really evaluate individual moves since-we don’t know what side he came down on in these moves. It would probably be a mistake to assume group-think on every move during Pfund’s time with the Heat.

2. I really like Andy B’s and Paging Stanley Roberts takes. McHale had all sorts of things going against him such as:

1. KG’s Contract extension before the switch in the CBA
2. Marbury Bolting
3. The Joe Smith Fiasco

The One Diastrous Decision was trying to reload the team at the end of Flip’s Tenure by bringing in: Marko, Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, and Mike James. The T-Hud Contract and Hassell Contracts while bad in hindsight where defensible considering their role in the 2003-2004 season (Hudson more of his 2002-2003 season). It wouldn’t have been well-received to let these guys bolt in 2004. Although one has to wonder how the Fan Base would have reacted with a KG trade in the Spring of 2005.

Prior to this McHale’s track-record was pretty decent given the limitations stated above. He did track down value from players not highly regarded such as: Chauncey Billups, Troy Hudson, Laphonso Ellis, Dean Garrett, Rasho, and Malik Sealy. Non of these players were superstars- but they all outperformed previous stops by quite a bit. The Big Mistake in hindsight was not resigning Chauncey considering Orginal SNP’s Injury History.

3. Hoiberg we really don’t know for sure. PSR makes the excellent point about what type of player he was on the court. This should have benefit in looking for what type of attributes seperate players besides being obvious physical freaks. We can’t say for sure what type of GM- he would be but neither can we about Lindsay, Kahn, or Pfund.

When I say luck, I mean that the top teams are built around star players. The Wolves got lucky when the landed KG, the Spurs when they landed Duncan (LA-Kobe/Shaq, Denver-Melo, Chicago-Jordan). The Wolves were also hampered by KG and his contract. The Wolves made some mistakes with KG and finding a supporting cast, but luck played a role in this with Googs, Starbury, Cassell, Spreewell, etc. By the end when the Jazric deal came along, the WOlves FO was desparate. They could have continued to sink investments in hoping to find a supporting cast around the aging great KG, but they chose to shed him in a trade, win back draft pick, get their roster in order and build to the future.

Now, I agree, there are no excuses, but I advocate incremental change and not wholesale abandonment of what they have done since they traded KG, despite being inflicted with an incredible string of bad luck with injuries to key players and draft picks. Still they have many pieces to work with. What they need is to find one more star player to play alongside a fully recovered Jefferson and a developing Love. That will require some skill in identifying this player in the draft, free agent signing or trade. It will also involve some luck.

Regardless of the stats that people pull out after the fact to demonstarte why some potential draftee emerged as an NBA star and another was a bust, the fact is that stats explain and when they are explaining they often tell a vvery good story, but as far as putting a cause with an effect (which is what stats do when one uses them to prognosticate), there is a tendency to use statistics and promote overcuasation when explaining. A good front office will listen to stats, scouts and their own hearts, before making a decision. And any decision they make when their trun to draft comes down to 1 to 4 players. They take their best shot and if they are lucky, they make the best choice, but the odds are not always with them.

No franchise or GM always makes the most prudent choice when making a decision. SA traded Luis Scola to Houston for Vassilis Spanoulis. SA’s run was built aroudn a great player in Duncan and they managed to put two other great players around him in Parker and Manu. Give them credit for this, but don’t make them out to be better than they actually are. The ones that deserve credit are Robinson, Duncan, Parker, Manu and their supporting casts. The WOlves need great players not a great GM and getting those players requires a bit of skill, but it is nothing that Taylor should throw the bank at.

By Jerry Zgoda
Sounds like we’re finally closing in on a new Wolves GM.

I’m hearing this morning that the Wolves have offered the job to David Kahn, the former Indiana GM since leaving the Pacers in 2002 has owned NBA Development League franchises and worked to bring major league baseball to Portland. I’m also hearing the only sticking point might be whether his wife will move to Minny.

http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/wolves/2009/05/06/kahn-could-be-the-guy/