I’m not sure on Lawson—on the one hand, this is probably going to be a mediocre draft, down the road, and Top 6 might not be a very hard group to end up in. But, I also think there’s chance that he falls out of the Top 6 of just the point guards, with Rubio/Jennings/Curry/Holiday/Flynn/Maynor all being rated ahead of him by different websites. He was great at Carolina, but it remains to be seen if and how that carries over to the NBA. It sort of did for Ray Felton, but not to the point that he’s a big impact player.

Here’s one thing that I am beginning to think is an obvious point: If Kahn trades for the #2, and has to give up #6 in the process, he’s taking Rubio. If he trades up to #2, without giving up #6 (presumably trading Love, since no other assets other than Jefferson would get this done) I think he takes Thabeet and Curry. There’s just not a lot of sense, value-wise, to trade Love away for #2, and then take Rubio and whatever else is left at #6 that isn’t a point guard. We’d essentially be swapping Love for Jordan Hill or something, while taking Rubio instead of Curry/Jennings/etc. Trading up for Rubio is safer than trading Love away for Thabeet/Curry. The latter option, however, gives us a higher ceiling, if both Curry and Thabeet becomes the impact players that their biggest fans think they will.

Either way, I expect one of those things to happen. I don’t see us staying put at 6 & 18, and just walking away with Curry and Mullens/Daye/someone like that.

Harden falls into our laps at 6? Griffen, Thabeet, Rubio, Evans, Curry…….
  
Perhaps the clever thing is use pick 6.

I read somewhere yesterday that he has to go in the top 3, otherwise the rookie salary constraints won’t provide enough funds to pay his spanish club his buyout. Not sure if that’s true (or if it even makes sense), but if it is, obviously if you want Rubio, then you have to move in the top 3.

“Stephen Curry or Tyreke Evans + Miller, Foye, and the 18th pick > Ricky Rubio and I don’t think it’s close.”

That list of assets might be too much to give up for Rubio — but there isn’t any question that you’d rather have an All Star than a bunch of half-formed Ryan Gomes sort of players. The Wolves should be trying to move up for Rubio if they’ve identified him as a premier point guard. Charles Barkley is worth more than Andrew Lang, Jeff Hornacek, and Tim Perry.

Sometimes you boil down the talent.

That the Wolves are trying to talk to Rubio and Thabeet prior to the draft.

Saying hello to Ricky and Hasheem…?
Posted on June 22nd, 2009 – 5:50 PM
By Jerry Zgoda
The Wolves are working today to set up at least meetings or interviews with Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet as they continue to explore options for Thursday’s draft.

Sounds like the Wolves are next on Rubio’s list of teams to talk to after he leaves a workout in Sacramento this afternoon. Not sure if that means in person or not.

David Kahn has been doing more background checks on Thabeet as well and earlier today was trying to set up something with agent Bill Duffy but they were playing phone tag.

Anything could still happen between now and Thursday. Heck, anything could happen on Thursday night. After Blake Griffin goes first to the Clippers, this could be the most unpredictable draft in years.

If the Wolves somehow could get that second pick from Memphis, not sure which guy they’d prefer. The national buzz is for Rubio, but I’ll lean toward the big fella.

Rubio would give them the dynamic playmaker who will sell tickets and perhaps that trumps everything, but Thabeet would be a pretty formidable bookend to place next to Al Jefferson.

Heck, as high as David Kahn apparently is aiming, maybe he’ll try to get both of ‘em…

Both players are in California for one more day and then will head to New York City for an arrival there Wednesday to do media stuff for Thursday’s big night.

Kahn said both players’ representatives have asked him not to disclose the team’s plans for meeting with each guy. When I just texted him, Kahn said he is still in town, but Minneapolis is on the way from California to New York, so it’s possible one or both guys could stop here on their way East.

They also could do something by phone just to make themselves feel better.

Now I’m wondering if there’s a chance that Rubio could fall to the Wolves at No. 6 without them having to move up to get him. He’ll likely have worked out some kind of compromise on that buyout with his Spanish team by Thursday night.

Talked to original Timberwolf Scott Roth today for a story I’ll write for Thursday’s paper that will focus on Rubio and Thabeet as the guys who will determine how this draft falls. He has been hired for the past month to work out Thabeet in preparation for the draft.

Roth helped develop Pau Gasol and Shane Battier when he was at Memphis. In a nutshell, here’s what he said:

Doesn’t worry that he’ll be an NBA bust. Says it’s exactly the opposite and calls him one of the few guys in the draft with a legitimate high upside.

Can get much stronger, never really did any core strengthening until trainers got ahold of him here in pre-draft workouts. Has more of an offensive game than people think, can shoot it to 16-17 feet and can be a pick and pop guy in the pros.

Says the advantage he has is most rookies struggle defensively when they enter the league, but he believes Thabeet will be a shot-blocking presence immediately.

Thinks he’ll be a better offensive player than Dikembe Mutombo, to whom Thabeet is often compared, but not as dominant defensively as the big finger wagger.

… greatly appreciates your willingness to take him at 18.

That Jennings may be the pick at #6. Supposedly the Wolves have a decent scout in Europe these days, and if that’s the case, what better way to prove his “worth” than to take one of the european guys.

While I like Curry, harden and maybe evans better, I think going to Europe will have benefitted Jennings. And I certainly hope that the folks in TC are evaluating the entire body of a player’s work, not just the “PG showdown” they had last week. Making a decision on one workout is asinine.

and good comments are that the expiring contracts are going to be used by the Wolves to trade for some player with a longer contract, and then pay that player over the contract.

I would like that scenario to be true, but I have no proof that that is the case (except the rumors of Miller to the Clippers for a big man). My guess on why Kahn may be generally be after more high draft picks instead of older, better, more expensive players is that:

a. It sells “hope” to the fans, yet also requires them to be reasonably patient since they’re evaluating players who are in their late teens or early 20s.
b. It’s much cheaper to pay the 2nd pick $3.7 million per year, than it is to sign, say, Ramon Sessions for the MLE.
c. The rookie contract is tilted in the team’s favor (i.e. all the “Team Option” years can be voided if the player doesn’t work out), but any older player is likely to have a fully-guaranteed contract.
d. We kind of know who Ramon Sessions or Marvin Williams is. But the more high picks the Wolves get, the more chances they have at lucking out with a superstar.

As to Rubio being fruh-JEE-lay, anyone concerned with that must not know many 6’4" 18 year olds. They’re string beans. Especially ones who are playing a sport and position at a very high level, that requires constant motion, and full-court sprinting. I haven’t seen any pictures of John Stockton in high school, but I’m guessing he wasn’t exactly Oliver Miller, either.

Seriously, he’s a touch over 5’11". Tony Parker, who I consider to be small for the NBA, has 2-3 inches on the lad. The Wolves already have the same sized player in Telfair, I’d be looking for someone with size at PG .

Is it too late to start a “Baron Davis” for PG campaign? The Clippers apparently want to unload him too. Possible trade scenarios include Miller/Telfair and Cardinal/Foye/Telfair.
With Davis on board you have a “Championship Level” PG for 3-4 years, room to draft the rookie PG of your choice now for backup.

With 3 firsts and two seconds in ’09, probably 2 firsts and a second in ’10, a Euro stashed, and expiring contracts, Kahn has numerous, valuable assets to shape this team and make his mark. I hope he is sharp and his temperament is cold, calculated, and Machiavellian rather than slick, look-at-me, wheeling and dealing. He has a small but interesting window to be brilliant or a putz.

The price to move up is too high, and you’re only going to be able to move to #4, unless you give up the fam to go to #2. Different sport, but ask Mike Ditka how much it can hurt when you put all your valuable eggs into one player.

Stay at 6, draft a PG – be it Curry, Lawson or Jennings, depending on who’s available. Trade the 18th pick and a player or two to bring back a vets and move up if at all possible. If not, then continue to draft well with an eye toward potentially using that player in a future deal. Or, if you draft well, be happy with the guy you get.

If you ask me, Hansbrough would be a great addition to this team. They need someone willing to bust their ass day in and day out off that bench.

And I still hold to my belief that Hasheem Thabeet has more of a chance at becoming the next Shawn Bradley than the next Dikembe Mutombo. Let Wallace hang himself with that pick at #2.

I really appreciated your site this offseason SNP. I get to watch a ton of College basketball and after the sonics left town, rarely get a chance to drive to Portland to see games at the Rose Garden, but I’ll be a TWolves fan for life. After posting at the STrib board last year, your site is a breath of fresh air with the reasoned posters, and daily updates. I appreciate your hard work giving me an outlet to talk BBall.

The boring draft to me is where we stay at 6 and take whoever falls between Rubio, Thabeet, Harden, Curry or Evans. Evans has a lot of questions, but I think, love him or loathe him, he will be the pick if he is all that is left.

It will be interesting to see how draft night unfolds, as with the rules that you can’t trade your own pick in consecutive years, trades for draft rights won’t occur until after the selection. The national media seems to be focused in on the Wolves trading up to grab Rubio at #2 while Zgoda and I believe you in a previous post seem to think that Thabeet is who the team is enamored with. I’m going to side with the locals and think it’s Thabeet. I think the Thunder have the biggest smoke screen going since they tried to trade for Chandler, a defense and rebounding big with absolutely no post game, and were willing to pay him big money to do that. They are going to draft Thabeet if he’s available. If not, I think they take Harden or trade the rights to Rubio.

The point of all this rambling is I think your point at #7 is off. I think if the Wolves trade up to #2 and take Thabeet, which they would disclose to Memphis, the Thunder are locked in on Harden or Curry and Rubio is a poor fit, leaving Rubio for Sacramento. In fact, if the Wolves were to promise Memphis that they wouldn’t select Evans with #5, Memphis would probably rather have #6 and the lesser salary obligation to that pick.

With so much muddle I can’t remember a draft with more smokescreens going on, and particularly at Sacramento. Sacramento’s roster is filled with players at 2-5, Martin, Noicioni, Thompson, and Hawes who need a shot creator to be effective. None of those guys are capable at creating their own shot. Rubio is the perfect fit. The minute they realized Memphis was interested in Evans and the Wolves were interested in trading up, David Kahn plugs Evans into the PG workout, and the Kings start making their angle. By feigning interest in Evans, and talking down Rubio to the national media, they can give Memphis pause about trading down, drive the price higher for Teams like the Wolves to acquire #2, and sit back and watch Rubio slide to #4 without having to give up Jason Thompson to move up. So the Kings immediately bring Evans into a PG workout in Sacramento and immediately leak to the press how amazing Evans was.

I think you can guarantee the following things in the top 4: (1) If Thabeet is on the board, the Thunder will take him; (2) If Thabeet is off the board, the Thunder take Harden or Curry; and (3) If Rubio is on the board, the Kings will take him. To Memphis, and if your interested in Curry and Evans, it means that you let the Wolves trade up to #2 for Thabeet, but you avoid allowing them to trade up for Rubio.

Hollinger’s Euro Preview was posted today and it ranks Nikola Pekovic as the best player in Europe whose rights are held by an NBA team.

It projects his NBA PER to be 18.36, ahead of guys like Tiago Splitter, Fran Vasquez, and Josh Childress, and gives the following rundown on him

Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) has been the highest-rated player in the Euroleague each of the past two years. An onerous contract is likely to keep him in Europe for a few more years, and the Wolves aren’t exactly hurting for bruising big men right now. But he projects as a quality power forward with an impressive scoring rate, and sooner or later he’ll be in the NBA.

Now might be the best time to use him in a deal as he’s already tops in europe. Is Pekovic enough of a sweetner to get #5 from Washington or #2 from Memphis?

de worss team in de league ta wotch nexx year mayn

“if you’re willing to take on the salary commitment.”