Final Draft Boards
OK folks, let's get right into this. Here is the final Community Draft Board, voted on by all y'all:
- Blake Griffin
- Ricky Rubio
- James Harden
- Stephen Curry
- Hasheem Thabeet
- Tyreke Evans
- Demar DeRozan
- Brandon Jennings
- Jrue Holiday
- Jonny Flynn
- Jordan Hill
- Ty Lawson
- Earl Clark
- Eric Maynor
- Austin Daye
- Gerald Henderson
- Terrence Williams
- B.J. Mullens
- Jeff Teague
- DeJuan Blair
- Nick Calathes
- Sam Young
- James Johnson
We only had single votes through the Henderson pick but I filled out the rest by adding up the votes of the past 3 polls and using the results to fill out the list. If our readers have their way, it is likely that the Wolves will be holding a presser introducing Stephen Curry and James Harden on Friday morning. Our very own Hoopus Draft Board is located below the fold.
Let me first begin with quick reminder of how the Hoopus Score works.
We have divided the Hoopus Score into two parts: quantity and quality. To give you a basic idea of how this formula works, the first number is a per-100 possession average of Four Factor related efficiency stats. It deals with how efficiently a player scores, how well he gets to the line, how little (or much) he turns it over, and how well he cleans the glass. The second number is a per-game tally of the number of net positive events a player accumulates. We add up things like points, rebounds, assists, and blocks; we weight them and then subtract things like turnovers, fouls, and missed free throws, which are also weighted.
Keep in mind that we do not rank European players with this scoring system. That is why you won't see Ricky Rubio on the list.
We have also divided the draft board into 3 tiers: guards, wings, and bigs. Before we get around to the final list, here is how each position broke down:
Guards:
- Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803)
- James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793)
- Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668)
- Nick Calathes: 33.3/10.575 (43.875)
- Jeff Teague: 35.525/7.813 (43.358)
- Eric Maynor: 32.875/9.558 (42.433)
- Lee Cummard: 30.6/11.359 (41.959)
- Marcus Thornton: 31.875/9.685 (41.156)
- Toney Douglas: 31.25/8.842 (40.092)
- Tyreke Evans: 31.4/8.414 (39.814)
- Jonny Flynn: 31.825/7.285 (39.11)
- Gerald Henderson: 30.5/7.808 (38.308)
- Darren Collison: 29.8/7.757 (37.557)
- Wayne Ellington: 27.3/8.828 (36.128)
- Jrue Holiday: 25.5/5.393 (30.893)
Wings:
Evan Turner: 36.5/10.359 (47.009)- Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179)
Al Farouq Aminu: 35.475/8.758 (44.233)Kyle Singler: 31.525/9.666 (41.191)- Ty Smith: 32.8/7.867 (40.667)
- Chase Budinger: 29.575/10.953 (40.528)
Damion James: 31.05/9.3 (40.35)- DeJuan Summers: 33.625/5.370 (38.62)
- Sam Young: 29.8/8.196 (37.996)
- Terrence Williams: 26.775/11.06 (37.835)
- Earl Clark: 28.75/8.867 (37.617)
- Austin Daye: 28.725/7.838 (36.588)
- Danny Green: 25.325/8.921 (34.246)
Bigs:
- Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196)
- Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4)
- DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403)
- Tyler Hansbrough: 39.375/13.766 (53.141)
Cole Aldrich: 35/14.863 (49.863)- Jerome Jordan: 38.55/10.652 (49.202)
Greg Monroe: 37.475/9.822 (47.297)- Jordan Hill: 33.999/12.451 (46.45)
- B.J. Mullens: 36.875/5.787 (42.622)
- James Johnson: 29.375/10.77 (40.145)
What we have done in the time since the last draft board is work on figuring out how each group should be weighted in relation to the others. What we found is that this particular class's guards fare the most favorably against past classes followed by wings and then bigs. There was some disagreement about the method we should use to measure this difference but at the end of the day we decided that it would be best if we just bridged the gap with some good ol' fashioned subjective informed guesses. We will track this data for another year or two before we plug in a real weight in this part of the equation. Throwing it all together here is what we came up with for tier one (picks 1-10):
- Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196-big)
- Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803-guard)
- James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793-guard)
- Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179-wing)
- Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668-guard)
- Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4-big)
- DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403-big)
Tier Two (picks 11-20):
- Tyler Hansbrough: 39.375/13.766 (53.141-big)
- Nick Calathes: 33.3/10.575 (43.875-guard)
- Eric Maynor: 32.875/9.558 (42.433-guard) (17.2/13-22)
- Jeff Teague: 35.525/7.813 (43.358-guard) (15.2/8-22)
- Marcus Thornton: 31.875/9.685 (41.156-guard) (26.3/23-2nd)
Tier Three (picks 21-30):
- Jordan Hill: 33.999/12.451 (46.45-big)
- Lee Cummard: 30.6/11.359 (41.959-guard)
- Chase Budinger: 29.575/10.953 (40.528-wing)
- Tyreke Evans: 31.4/8.414 (39.814-guard)
- Jonny Flynn: 31.825/7.285 (39.11-guard)
- Gerald Henderson: 30.5/7.808 (38.308-guard)
- Sam Young: 29.8/8.196 (37.996-wing)
- Terrence Williams: 26.775/11.06 (37.835-wing)
- James Johnson: 29.375/10.77 (40.145-big)
- Toney Douglas: 31.25/8.842 (40.092-guard)
- Wayne Ellington: 27.3/8.828 (36.128-guard)
OK, a few things. You will probably notice that we do not think very highly of Jonny Flynn and Tyreke Evans. Evans was a tough call. On one hand, we all know the positives: He has upper-level height, length, and strength for his position and he can score the damn ball. On the other hand, he can't shoot. It's not just that he can't shoot from outside, but he can't shoot from anywhere. From spot up situations to isolation, Evans shoots roughly 25% on jump shot opportunities. This wouldn't be so problematic if jump shots didn't account for 40% of his possessions. On top of that, he's not exactly the world's greatest isolation player, scoring 0.54 ppp in these situations. This stat especially worries me in light of the physical display that Evans put on during his workout day with the Wolves. Against smaller guards he was able to muscle his way to the rim but he wasn't able to do this as efficiently as we'd all like to believe while at Memphis. When you don't have a jump shot and when you are inefficient in iso situations, where are you getting your points? Transition, transition, transition. Last year's game against Missiouri was a perfect template for what Evans brings to the table. He will torch teams in transition and in free-flowing opportunities into the lane, but he will torch his own team with his jumper and relative inability to create his own shot in a half court setting. The caveat here is that Evans' poor score is almost entirely dependent on his awful shooting. Unlike Flynn, who was somewhat underwhelming across the board, Evans is held back by one major thing. If you believe his shot is fixable, then he moves up the board. Since we here at Hoopus don't exactly have the type of scouting ability to answer this question, we'll stick with his college record. In terms of the Wolves, Evans is not a good pick. He is more in the D-Wade model than Randy Foye ever was or will be, but he's not a good shooter and his isolation abilities are not up to snuff enough to make up for the awful, terrible, no-good jumper.
The other big thing you will notice is that Demar DeRozan is the only wing player worth a peak in the lotto. This year's wing class doesn't have a single player that jumps out and grabs your attention. DeRozan has the tools to be a very solid, but not spectacular, player. The thing that most stands out about DeRozan is his mid-range game and his steady improvement throughout the season. He also may be a perfect fit for a Rubio-led Wolves.
DeRozan was able to score at USC without even the threat of three point proficiency. He made up for his lack of outside shooting by racking up a 56% mark from 2 with 49% in isolation, 43% in catch-and-shoot, and 41% on pull up jumpers. Throw in an above average OReb% for his position as well as a modest ability to get to the line and you have a player with upper-level athleticism and a....boring middle range workman-like game. Think Ryan Gomes with hops and a higher upside rather than Gerald Green or Vince Carter. DeRozan is the type of player who will need a good point guard at the next level. Until he can develop his dribble-drive game, he will need to be set up in the 1/2 court. While we all wait for that to happen, he has the tools to be a good defender, excellent rebounder for his position, and a solid mid-range player. If the Wolves make a trade up to the two spot for Rubio, DeRozan is exactly the type of player you want to put with him at the off guard spot. Just remember that he's more lunch bucket than someone with that type of athleticism would suggest.
As for the other wings, there is one player I'm willing to overlook his statistical shortcomings: Austin Daye. From the length to the shooting to the potential, if he's available at 18, he may be worth the long-term investment. He could also be an interesting three point specialist and outside threat...which is something the Wolves are in a sore need of at this point in time. He doesn't need to start for the Wolves to be effective if he can hit the 3.
For long-time readers of the site, it should come as no surprise that I am a big Stephen Curry fan and I would like nothing more than to see Curry line up in a Wolves uniform in November. With a current starting back court of Sebastian Telfair and Bobby Brown, and with Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and Rashad McCants no longer with the team, the Wolves are in a bad, bad need of someone who can shoot the rock. Curry is not J.J. Redick 2.0. He has legit lead-guard abilities and a skill that will keep him in the league for a long, long time no matter how he pans out: he can shoot the damn ball.
Since we've kind of gone on a little long with this post, and since we've made our thoughts on most of these players known in prior posts let's wrap this up by giving a short list of 2nd round targets and then laying out two scenarios we would like to see from the Wolves.
- Victor Claver- A 6-10" athlete who scores by shooting 3s or finishing at the rim. He is coming off an injury but is still very young.
- Paul Harris- Jonny Flynn's backcourt partner at Syracuse has the potential to be an excellent perimeter defender with some offensive skills to boot. He is the one player that the Wolves absolutely should take if he is available at #45.
- Nando de Colo- French guard with an awesome set of skills and a high b-ball IQ.
- Alade Aminu- A project big who saw limited time at Georgia Tech. He has amazing length and athleticism for his position. He could be placed in the D-League or sent to Europe.
- Sergio Llull- The other young Spanish point. This one has excellent size and athleticism for the position while being able to shoot from long-range.
- Danny Green- Good size and athleticism with defensive potential on the perimeter.
- Rodrigue Beaubois- Unbelievable quickness, ridiculous handle, amazing length, and...well, that's pretty much it at this point. Beaubois has the physical tools to be a Rondo-esque player at the point. Whether he has the skills or mental makeup is another question all together.
- Jodie Meeks- I will be amazed if he is available at 45 but if he is, he might be worth a look.
- Robert Dozier- Solid defensive potential. Good length and rebounding ability to go along with a developing shot. Length and athleticism are big pluses; age and strength are negatives.
- Jack McClinton- McClinton is going to make some team very, very, very happy with their selection. He's a bit old and he probably isn't starting material at the next level but he is tough as hell, can shoot the lights out, and could even be used as a pint-sized 3 point specialist off the bench. McClinton would definitely be worth a peek.
- Goran Suton- He takes up space and can rebound.
- Josh Heytvelt- Assuming he's all done with eating shrooms, and that he has sufficiently recovered from his injury, Heytvelt is an interesting fit for the Wolves. He's athletic and long but he's not a very good defender.
- Jimmy Baron- An amazing, amazing, amazing 3 point shooter from Rhode Island. He's a long shot but who isn't with the 47th pick?
What the hell, throw in Ben Woodside for good Minnesota homer measure. Here are the two scenarios we would like to see from the Wolves
Keep the picks (in order of preference at each spot):
- #5- Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, James Harden
- #6- Demar DeRozan, James Harden
- #18- DeJuan Blair, Ty Hansbrough, Austin Daye, E
- #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
- #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
- #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list
Rubio shoot-the-moon:
- Trade #6 and 18 to Memphis for the #2 pick
- #2- Ricky Rubio
- Trade #5 to GSW or the Knicks for the highest Curry-related bid or draft Harden or Evans
- Draft Demar DeRozan (if the trade is made)
- #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
- #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
- #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list
Whatever happens going forward, there are a few things I would really like to see from the Wolves:
- If they do make the 6 + 18 for 2 trade, and they do pick Rubio, I hope they are creative as hell with that #5 pick. They will likely be able to draft Curry and move him for a decent amount in return.
- If they do decide to go with Evans, they need to have someone like Curry to pair him with. I can completely see what Evans brings to the table outside of his jump shot and if you are going to put him on the Wolves, he needs to be paired with Curry. Evans/Curry is a back court I could completely get behind.
- The Wolves need to use picks 28, 45, and 47 on players that can stay in Europe or go to the D-League. No selling the 28th pick.
- The Wolves absolutely cannot package 5 and 6 for 2. Memphis is in a corner here and there is no reason to let them out. They will end up with Thabeet or Hill and like it.
Well that about does it. What say you? What does your draft board look like? Let us know in the comments.
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113 comments
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Comments
It’s surprising to see DeRozan rated so highly in your statistical analysis while seeing him be rated so poorly by Hollingers and others. That being said, I completely agree that he is the best fit with Rubio in the backcourt, and what I really like about DeRozan was his ability to follow instructions, be coachable, and do what is asked. If you haven’t seen his jumper, his form, IMO, is perfect. He gets great hieght, shoots at the peak of his jump, and was extremely effective with it in his mid range game. I don’t see any reason to think with continued work he won’t be able to extend his range, and really, his 3PT% is what is killing him in many of the other statistically analysis’.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 1:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've only seen...
….one other place that has a high ranking for DeRozan:
http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/0809ew10.htm
His mid-range game is fantastic and as long as you realize he’s more lunch bucket than high-flier, then it’s all good. If they can pair Rubio with DeRozan or Harden, that’s swinging for the fences.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 24, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Community Draft Board = Kahn's Draft Board hopefully
The analysis here is very impressive and I’m willing to bet some of this isn’t so far off from what Kahn et al are discussing at Target Center. That being the case, I’m starting to feel like any combination of two of the top 6 players on this board would be an exciting upgrade for the Wolves meaning in my book, hanging on to the picks or trying to use 18 to move up a slot or two with one of them results in an outstanding draft any way you cut it.
by OkieWolf on Jun 24, 2009 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This sounds like the very DANGEROUS practice of ranked-choice voting.
One vote means ONE VOTE!!!! COMMIE!!!
www.canishoopus.com
by wyn on Jun 24, 2009 1:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn't this what you Greens want to do..
…to Minneapolis? ;)
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 24, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW:
Here’s an update on IRV in Mpls:
http://www.ci.minneapolis.mn.us/elections/rcv.asp
It was just declared legal by the MN Supreme Court:
Hopefully it will be state-wide ASAP.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 24, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Together
If the wolves draft Rubio is there no way they an pair him with Curry?
I guess Curry is too small to play at the 2 (although that never stopped Foye) and Telfair is already our back up point guard. What do you do if you do the Memphis trade, get rubio and the draft looks like
1. Griffin
2. Rubio (to MN)
3. Harden
4. Curry
5. ? (can you take Evans here, creating the ultimate no shooting backcourt? is there a trade market for Evans) I guess you say take DeRozan here if you can’t complete a trade?
6. Memphis (Thabeet—wolves promised if he was available)
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
SnP says to DeRozan and Austin Daye...
“I don’t know why I can’t quit you.”
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
by mutleyil on Jun 24, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
6'11"...
…with 3 point range. If anything, he could hopefully be Kyle Korver with height. DeRozan is a super-Gomes who can play the 2/3 instead of the 3/4….and no, I can’t quit them ;) I definitely have a weak spot for certain players no matter what the stats say about them and that is definitely the case with Daye and to a lesser extent, Evans. Evans + Daye gives the Wolves huge length at 2 positions.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 24, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daye might be a pretty inefficient offensive player, but he would help Love and Jefferson a lot on the defensive side. He could help us defend those pesky 6’9’’ to 7’ three point shooters that tend to kill a team when they’re hot that Love and Jefferson are too slow to defend. Granted, he couldn’t exactly match up one on one in the post against Rasheed Wallace because he’d be killed in the post, but he could apply help defense when Wallace moved out to the perimeter. I don’t know if he’d be quick enough to defend Durant though.
by oblivionspocket on Jun 24, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd love a Rubio/Curry draft
but i can live wit Harden/Curry or Rubio/Harden. fuck you tyreke mayn i ont want youy here mayn.
khan impressin me so far but makin me even mo nervous. love fdis trade doe…..we need some combo of curry, rubio, and harden. nuttin else worth it .
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Jun 24, 2009 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
impressive
Kahn is impressing me so far, but I vomit tomorrow night if Love gets traded for anyone not named Lebron, Dwyane, Dwight, or Kobe. Just couldn’t handle it. But hey, that’s just me.
I would also love Rubio and Curry, but I’m not show the Wolves trot out that starting back court.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would be
I’m not sure… as opposed to I’m not show.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about
someone named Chris or Rajon? Two teams with valuable point guards and needing some inexpensive, low post help. Love, 5, 6 and filler for CP3? Could you live with that? How about Love and 6 for Rondo?
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
there was a chance of the CP3 trade happening, heck yes!! Filler=ex-Wiz
Sometimes the obvious is hidden.
by frankenhoops on Jun 24, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love
#5
#6
Etan Thomas
Cardinal
Songaila
Madsen
Craig Smith
FOR
CP3
Peja
Tyson Chandler
Works under the cap
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starting 5
CP3/Telfair
Brewer/?
Gomes/Peja
Al
Chandler
Capped out, no depth, with the #18 and #28 to get better.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "3 Wizards"
can’t be traded as a group again for 60 days or something, can they?
by Auswolf on Jun 24, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct
If packaged with other players, which clearly they are. Would have to arrange with NO before the draft.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless the Wolves are under the salary cap.
Re-reading Larry Coon’s FAQ
(http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q85)
I noticed that “This restriction applies only to teams over the salary cap.”
by levi_mn on Jun 24, 2009 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kahn sits tight with Love and Jefferson for now
My guess is he wants to give Jefferson and Love a shot next season. It’s not like their value will go down on the trade market. Assuming both of them stay healthy and Love ups his numbers, the option of trading one of them for something of significant value in return doesn’t go away. Do we really want to put all of our eggs in this draft basket? I think Kahn will try to move up with one of his lotto picks + 18 and if he can’t, he stays put and picks the best guards available at 5 and 6.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 24, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Love's value could drop slightly...
…. if he settles into “role player” status next year (i.e., solid but uninspiring) and the myth around his rebounding and outlet passing fades away. Right now people (including us) are speculating on the future, so Kahn has to try to project what he sees Love’s next 82 games looking like when he’s considering trade scenarios.
by Shogun on Jun 24, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love and Jefferson are staying
At least that’s how I heard it during today’s presser. But he also reinforced my impression that he is looking for “a 5 with length”, so that’s basically saying that Jefferson is targeted for the “4”.
I also gathered that he was very impressed with Rubio.
I think I’ve noticed a “tell” from Kahn. If he mentions a current Timberwolves player, that player is staying. If you don’t hear a player’s name, he’s potentially bait.
So far, I’ve heard him mention Jefferson, Love, and Telfair.
I haven’t heard: Cardinal, Madsen, Smith, Gomes, Brewer. And course, Miller and Foye before the trade.
by levi_mn on Jun 24, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brendan Heywood's take on the trade
Wasn’t sure where to post this, so went to the first post I saw.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 24, 2009 4:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What's hilarious about this
not mentioned: “And I’m glad that Etan Thomas won’t be beating me up in practice any more.”
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember reading about the fight between those two and how one of them, musta been Thomas, body slammed the other one. Can you imagine that fight? One dude is what, 6’9" 270 and the other is 7’ 280 and there was a literal body slam involved in the locker room. I think I’d pay to see that.
by Xand1 on Jun 24, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Curry not high on Wolves board?"
says the Newsday post from RealGM:
Newsday’s Alan Hahn reports that Stephen “Curry is behind about four guards on Minnesota’s board.”
Who could it be?
Rubio, Harden, Evans, and, what, Flynn?!!! DeRozan!!! Jennings???!!!
Should be an interesting 24 hours . . .
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 5:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Never mind
As we’ve reported, the Wolves are willing to talk about moving the No. 5 and No. 18 picks for either the No. 2 or No. 3 pick in the draft.
But if they can’t get that done, they have a number of other options. We’ve mentioned Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry as possibilities. Add Jonny Flynn to that list as well. Sources say the Wolves are strongly considering Flynn with one of their two lottery picks … if Rubio is off the board.
If they take Flynn, chances are they’ll pass on Curry, giving the Knicks a shot at drafting their target.
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rumors and smokescreens are flying hot and heavy
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very True
From Draft Express
Indications we’re receiving are that Sacramento appears to be leaning towards drafting Jonny Flynn, even in the scenario that Oklahoma City decides to pass on Ricky Rubio. The wildcard here are the team owners, the Maloofs, who are extremely high on the Spanish point guard and could decide to assert their own will and make the front office pick Rubio.
Flynn won’t have to wait long in the Green Room regardless, as its extremely unlikely that he gets past the Milwaukee Bucks. He may even have a promise there.
Oklahoma City has already reportedly offered Minnesota to trade the #5 and #6 picks for the #3 selection, where Ricky Rubio is sure to be available for the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City appears to be sending out signals that Rubio is the player they covet at #3, although this could very well be a smokescreen to force Minnesota to trade up if they indeed covet Rubio as much as people think.
Another rumor that is making the rounds is that Oklahoma City may be working on a deal with the New York Knicks that would involve drafting Rubio and then shipping him to the Knicks in July in a sign and trade for David Lee. The tricky part would be coming to terms with Lee on an appropriate contract figure before the pick is made, since technically they are not allowed to negotiate, and Lee likely does not yet know what his true value on the open market. He is reportedly looking for around 11 million dollars a year.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buy
I really don’t buy that Sac-Town passes on Rubio. So, If Memphis takes Thabeet, the Wolves know they have to deal with Sam Presti in order to get Rubio and since Sam knows that Sac-Town won’t take his player (Harden, right?) he has all the leverage with MN. That’s unless, of course, he really doesn’t want Rubio and he thinks MN will be fine with a Harden and Flynn backcourt (or Harden and Curry).
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still hold
that part of the attraction for MN moving the 5 and 6 picks for the 2 is that they actually save about $1.5 million per year in salary by doing it. Would they love to get the 2 for 5 and 18 and Smith? Of course. But it won’t be the end of the world for them if they get one great player at 2 vs. two good ones at 5 and 6, and pay less in the meantime.
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Please pick up David Lee, and pay him 11 million dollars per year as the salary cap and the economy shrink. This is about the best chance we have of derailing the Thunder.
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously
The Thunder give up the #3 pick in the draft (essentially James Harden) for David Lee (by taking Rubio and trading him).
No way Presti does this. Lee ain’t getting 11 million from anyone this year, so why would OKC overpay?
Seems like OKC ending up with Harden at #5 from MN (cheaper contract) and the #18 pick is better than getting David Lee for 11 million. Of course, maybe they get Lee for cheaper in the deal, who knows.
MN could also throw in the #28 to OKC, giving them #6, #18, #28. Maybe Presti can turn #18 and #28 into #14 or #16, etc.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Flynn's a Smokescreen
The Wolves have a long history of poor guard evaluation. But thanks to some hard work, no matter what they do, they’re virtually guaranteed 2 of the following four consensus good prospects: Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Tyreke Evans, and Stephen Curry. That’s it. Keep it simple. And just about any combo of 2 of those 4 is workable.
By any objective measure, Flynn’s at best a borderline lotto prospect. And scouting-wise, after the season he was projected as a borderline-lotto/teens-to-early-20s type prospect. But he’s a riser. He’s looked good in workouts, he has a great personality, he’s looking quick and strong, etc. But ALWAYS be wary of risers: they’re almost always taken too early (see Foye, Randy).
Flynn’s primary red flags revolve around the fact that his peripheral numbers (blocks, rebounds, steals) are flat out terrible. Maybe you can note the caveats that Syracuse played a brutal schedule and also featured an all-zone system (thus limiting things like steals and boards for a guy like Flynn, whose job was to stay at home), but you have to massage his numbers quite a bit to get them close to some other prospects. And even then, a guy like Harden played in a zone system against top-20 competition, and he still managed to stuff the boxscore.
Maybe Flynn will be decent, but he looks like a backup/marginal starter to me. And the Wolves already have one of those in Bassy.
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
amen
amen. I would bet it’s Curry and Evans that fall to the Wolves. and I hope they don’t go Flynn and Evans.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still fail to see how Rubio really fits this team.
Rubio is a fast break player who can’t shoot from outside. He’s a player that makes shooters and finishers (like a Tyson Chandler type) better. Carney is the only guy on the roster who fits this style of play (as a finisher/fast break player) and he may not even be on the team next year.
Jefferson is a half court low post player who needs good shooters around him and 2 of the 3 best three-point shooters just got traded away…
also Rubio, Jefferson, Love aren’t slowing down anybody defensively.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pass
Rubio’s passing skills will also be effective in the half-court. I don’ think the team drafting rubio has to play a run and gun style. But, hopefully the Wolves scouts have a good handle on Rubio in the half-court vs. in the open court.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t you think they’ll be greatly reduced if all he’s doing is feeding the post to Jefferson?
I don’t see Jefferson all of a sudden becoming a pick & roll player.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing
Love should be a solid fit for the pick and roll.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but then you minimize Jefferson, who is a better #1 option than the Rubio & Love in the pick & roll.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
I’m arguing that throwing the ball down low into Al isn’t an effective play; however, we need something else going on for when Al is having an off night or when Al is getting double and triple teamed. Al is a great halfcourt option but he’s not foolproof. And he’s not a great facilitator so running the offense through him is unlikely.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah.
i just think you could zone Rubio, Love, Jefferson and neutralize the low post as well as the pick & roll without being hurt by the NBA 3 point line (where 1-3 is like shooting 50%).
this is worse if you have Evans on top of that who also has no 3 point range and is more of a dribble the ball for 15 seconds to create a shot type player.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
minimize
you don’t minimize Jefferson. The entry pass into the post is not inherently (see Foye, Randy). Rubio can get the ball to Jefferson in the half court. This is good. The pick and roll with Love gives MN another option if teams focus too much on Jefferson. If teams defend the pick and roll both Love and Rubio are skilled passers that can feed Big Al.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rubio walking it up feeding Jefferson and spotting up for shots keeps him from doing what he does best which is pass.
In terms of feeding he post, you might as well take Curry at PG for his shooting (Rubio, Curry would not be good defensively, imo) or go with Flynn who is probably going to bring leadership & toughness.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good points
But…
Rubio will likely become a better shooter. He’s only 18 and people compare him to Jason Kidd.
Second, you are correct that Wolves can hopefully draft someone who can shoot if they take Rubio. Not sure who that is if they promise Harden to OKC in a trade.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take Curry as BPA
Possibly move him in a package for a shooting 2/3… or just keep him and deal with the possibility of Rubio/Curry being a defensive question mark. It’d likely end with Rubio guarding the 2 on D.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 24, 2009 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point
Rubio gets posted up by bigger 2’s, but Rubio’s defense has to be equal to Foye’s with his height advantage and wingspan. Foye is stronger of course, but that didn’t appear to do him much good.
Foye did have some clutch steals and blocks in January, maybe Rubio could do the same.
Plus we have Brewer off the bench in a pinch.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why can't
Rubio can surely also bring leadership, although maybe not this year, but who knows. And who’s saying Ricky not tough?
Flynn is good though, but I feel like we now his ceiling and the Wolves should consider swinging for the fences.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't like the Captain Intangibles arguments for Flynn.
There are other reasons to like him. Use those as examples rather than the more superfluous arguments.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 24, 2009 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have added from day 1, but KLM’sN is right. I probably should have went with Flynn’s athleticism & 1 on 1 skills.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where does this perception that Rubio is a bad defender coming from? He’s won at least one defensive player of the year award in his league, has crazy long arms, good size and excellent anticipation skills. He’s not going to shut down the best PG’s in the league, but I challenge you to find me a player who can stop CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose etc. I think his length and hands will make him more than adequate at playing D, assuming he can adjust to the more pansified NBA defensive rules.
by Xand1 on Jun 24, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where does coming from.. Yikes, this site really needs an edit feature!
by Xand1 on Jun 24, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is correct
He’s a good defensive player, actually. He’s quite quick, has long arms and good size. I don’t know where this Rubio can’t do this and that comes from. He should be able to defend well and get a good number of steals. He might have some problems early—what 18 year old is going to be great defensively? But he has the tools.
This brings me to something that’s always bothered me. I don’t like the way we talk about perimeter defense. In the NBA, it’s almost impossible to keep penetrating guards from, well, penetrating. Nobody in the league keeps Parker, Rondo, Williams, et. al. out of the lane consistently. Even 2nd tier penetrators are difficult to stop. The best you can hope for is to turn them the way you want them to go and force them to take an extra dribble or 2 to get where they want to go. And occasionally force a turnover.
On the idea of fit…this strikes me as silly. This is a bad team that needs talent. If you think Rubio is a transcendent talent, you don’t worry about how he’ll play with Al Jefferson. Get the talent. Figure it out. Rubio could change the franchise. Of course, your mileage may vary.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Rubio is transcendent because his stats show he can’t finish & he can’t shoot from outside. If he had a 85-90% FT shot like CP3 or Chauncey, I’d be more inclined to believe he’d eventually get said shot (they were low 40% (CP3) & high 30% (Chauncey) when they 1st entered the league.
He’s either Nash without a jump shot (not good since Nash gets by guys b/c they have to respect his jumper) or Kidd without the athleticism, body.
I don’t like the way we talk about perimeter defense. In the NBA, it’s almost impossible to keep penetrating guards from, well, penetrating. Nobody in the league keeps Parker, Rondo, Williams, et. al. out of the lane consistently.
Keeping away from penetrating is different than getting blown by and giving the offensive player a head of steam towards your big man. Guys like Battier slow Kobe down just enough to allow the rest of the team to rotate.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we can certainly disagree about Rubio
That’s fine. My point is, I guess, that if you think that Rubio is the guy who can change your franchise, you don’t worry about things like how he fits with Jefferson.
I think he is a franchise changing talent, so I am willing to go a long way to get him, since I think he’s the only franchise changing talent in this draft.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is, I guess, that if you think that Rubio is the guy who can change your franchise, you don’t worry about things like how he fits with Jefferson.
No argument here.
I just think he’s more of a teammate enhancer than a franchise player.
He makes shooters better by getting them better looks & makes athletic guys like Andre Iguodala better by setting them up to finish.
To me, true franchise guys are Lebron, Dwight & Wade. Guys that where it doesn’t matter who you put around them to be a winning team. obviously, you need some help to reach contender or championship status. but with true franchise guys, almost any kind of good player fits.
I think Rubio’s success is going to be determined by who he has around him. He really needs a Philly type roster or Suns (pre-Shaq) line up to get the most out of him and limit his weaknesses.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is rebuilding year one.
Shooters can be had next year or in subsequent trades. Transcendent point guards are surprisingly hard to come by.
by TheH on Jun 24, 2009 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess my counter would be that he has way too many holes & unknowns to be considered transcendent.
Poor shooting (especially when he doesn’t have a track record in 85-90% FT history like CP3, Billups or Nash to show that he could eventually become an elite shooter at the position).
TOs… an overall assist to TO ratio under 2 is kind of a red flag even for the Euro league. He’s committing a high number of turnovers against defenses full of not so athletic players.
He’s had difficulty finishing inside in Europe where guys like Primoz Brezec & Marc Gasol are considered athletic. What happens when he tries to finish over NBA level athletic big men?
apparently, guy hasn’t touched a basketball in a month
This clip begins with Rubio discussing how he hasn’t picked up a ball since his Euroleague season ended nearly a month ago…http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/sports/kings/
a month? he’s making the jump from Euro league to the NBA… shouldn’t this guy be working on his game?
and we haven’t even gotten to the defensive end… where no one is sure how he’ll fair… Rondo/Devin/Baron (when he cares), he will not be.
Rubio definitely has the best feel for the game we’ve seen since CP3, is super crafty (especially at pick & roll) and has great anticipation. But he’s not a speed/power/athleticism match up nightmare like Deron/Rose or a do every thing PG like CP3.
So if he’s a guy that is superb at one thing (passing), then why not take a guy who is also superb at one thing (shooting) or is at least above average at everything.
oddly enough, next season’s draft might feature a real transcendent PG in John Wall.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rubio’s defense comes from gambling for steals and guessing. Something Brandon Jennings was also able to duplicate in the Italian leagues.
Yes, they’re grown men in Europe, but in terms of athleticism and ball handling, they may actually be below college players (in general). Obviously, this can’t be proven and you can disregard it if you like.
I think it’s true and is probably a sign Rubio will struggle to keep Baron, Conley, Westbrook, Ellis, TJ Ford, Aaron Brooks, Jameer Nelson, Arenas, Sessions, Mo Williams (not to mention the elites you mentioned) in front of him.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you really watched Rubio enough to claim that his steal #’s come from gambling? Just curious…
by Xand1 on Jun 24, 2009 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not. I based it off of the Olympics (didn’t watch the ball, just followed Rubio) along with his highlights and assumed it was 80-90% likely to be true because that’s what the draft gurus are saying.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So who are the point guards
in this draft who:
A. Can do all the things Rubio can on offense
B. Yet stay in front of the quickest PGs in the world on defense?
David Kahn and I would really like to know.
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want Rubio
but we could answer that as of right now…
A. Curry can shoot, Rubio cannot
B. Both Curry and Rubio cannot stay in front of quickest PGs
Rubio is a better passer than Curry. He’s also taller, has a longer wingspan, and is 3 years younger, and has played in a professional league.
I go with Rubio. But there are guards that (especially right now) offer different skill sets.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on Rubio
relative to the rest of the players in this draft. I’d gladly settle for Curry plus (Evans/Harden/DeRozan) as well, but as much as I like Curry, I don’t think he’s a game-changer either (Mike Bibby plus Eddie House?).
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not the point. Obviously if you believe Rubio can overcome all his weaknesses (shooting, TOs, athleticsm, finishing inside, i’ll be generous and go with a maybe on defense) and become a transcendent franchise player then by all means take him.
But if he’s not going to supplant Al Jefferson as the guy you run your offense through which is the much more likely scenario, why not get a guy like Curry to play PG who is a better fit offensively and is excellent at a skill that is completely missing from the current roster?
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wolves smokescreen
Perhaps the Wolves really like Curry and are smoke screening with the Rubio talk. Getting the fifth pick certainly barred NY from trading with Washington for Curry. Ny won’t trade for #3 for Curry (at least no one seems to think they will).
Again, I want rubio, but it’s certainly possible the wolves want curry.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry doesn't want the Wolves
Rubio does. And it’s tough to say we have actually been “talking” about drafting Rubio. We have said, like we have about many other players, that he is a good player. Thats about it.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
offers == talking
Reports say Wolves have made offers and entertained offers for the #2 pick and the #3 pick and most suggest that it’s to pick Rubio. I’ve also read some that suggest Wolves want #3 to take Evans, but that seems stupid, stupid, stupid.
So, I would say the Wolves have been talking about drafting Rubio. Also when Chad Ford posts that the Wolves like Flynn that is most likely coming from Kahn. Given that he used to be a reporter, why would he not use the press to his advantage.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, Curry doesn't want to be here
While MN might not be Rubio’s first choice, the situation is exactly what he described he wanted. A place where he will get a lot of time at the PG spot and where there are a lot of young players because, presumably, he a) wants friends in America and b) he wants to grow with a team. We could have a star in Rubio for years to come!
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if they get Rubio, they might have to consider swapping out Big Al. Maybe not immediately, but in the next year or two. I think your opinions about Rubio and Al all have merit (Al can get his own shot; the guy averaged 20 ppg with Randy Foye as his starting PG). While Al needs a spacing offense, Love and Rubio could be the start of a movement offense: lots of pick and roll, ball movement, cutting, and transition. They’d need to get an athletic big and finishers on the wing, but all in due time. In the meantime, something like Al for Biedrins (or Al + Golden State’s #7 to PHX, Amare to Golden State, Biedrins to Wolves) or Al for Noah + Hinrich/Deng might be something to consider and solve the athletic big issue.
I’m not necessarily advocating a Big Al trade, and in fact given the upheaval that’s already happening, maybe now’s not the time. But I don’t really consider him a franchise player, so I’m by no means going to rule out drafting who some consider a potential iconic player because of Big Al. (Whether Rubio in fact becomes that type of player remains to be seen, of course.)
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2009 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
The second scenario is almost what I laid out in a response to a previous post. I like the idea of trading both the 5 and 6 and then getting the 2 and a later pick in the top 10. Otherwise, use Curry as bait for NY if we think thats who they want. We can definitely end this draft with Rubio, DeRozan, and the rest of our picks (to use or trade or both). Just bring in New York or Toronto to give a little extra to Memphis in order to move up. We even save some money by getting a guy like DeRozan at the 8 or 9 instead of the 6. I have liked Harden from day 1, so I would be extremely happy with him and Evans or other.
Also, I would love to see Rubio paired up with DeRozan and Carney and then even pick up a guy like Rudy Gay eventually for our wing when we are contending (hopefully).
Not to beat a dead horse…but I am still kinda enamored with a random idea brought up before by SnP about trading Jefferson. I liked Jefferson and the 18 (and dump the 47) for the number 2, Gay, and Darko. Split center time with Darko, Collins, and Thomas now and hope Darko can play some decent pick and roll with Rubio. Then we have a high flying team with Rubio, DeRozan, Gay, Love, and Darko plus we still have another draft pick in this scenario. Dare I say…Thabeet? Scary team in terms of age…. but exciting as any team could possibly be with Rubio dishing out assists in the form of alley oops and pick and roll passes. Or trade and get a serviceable big man like Kaman for the 5. Also, we could always take Harden instead of DeRozan.
Never gonna happen, just fun and scary to imagine.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 7:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right!
I like the idea of Memphis taking Thabeet, and we engineer a trade where Marc & Ricky end up in MN.
Especially because I think that we already have Thabeet on our roster, but we call him the Big Oily.
by timmuggs on Jun 24, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN trade machine gives the advantage to Mem
If we get Gay, Gasol, and Jaric…then again I can’t factor in the number 2 pick and we would obviously need to get rid of some contracts (and the hollinger rating isnt the best benchmark of trade value….)
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we can't get Rubio...
another idea is to take a 2 and 3 early, and wait to take Maynor at 18. Perhaps James Harden, Earl Clark, and Eric Maynor would round out a nice starting five. We could probably trade down to take Clark and pick up an additional asset.
I’d get much more excited about Rubio, but it is a good point that others make about Rubio’s style not exactly meshing with Jefferson. Maynor seems like a solid, half-court, floor general that might be a nice fit—especially with big wings like Harden and Clark, who could keep the floor spread.
This option retains Gomes, Brewer, Telfair and Pekovic, so we can always continue the shuffle if some of it doesn’t work out.
by Andy G on Jun 24, 2009 8:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this OK in theory, not so much in practice
because I don’t really expect Maynor to be any better than Bassy, and to not improve on Bassy in this PG heavy draft seems depressing.
I also have no faith in CLark, who I saw quite a bit this year, because he seems to have no BB IQ and an inconsistent motor.
Of course, YMMV
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd much rather have Rubio...
but if we can’t get him, we now are in the next tier of point guards, that is arguably 8 players deep and will easily reach #18. The list of good 2/3/4/5’s available at 18 will likely be 0.
So, from a total value perspective, if we can get good value at 18, with a point guard, it makes more sense to go a different direction with 5 & 6.
But yeah, I’d way rather just get aggressive and trade for Rubio.
by Andy G on Jun 24, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Few guards are only
considered to be half court or fast break guards. Rubio might excel in the fast break, but that does not mean that he can not play half court style. He is a great passer, I think we can all agree on that. The pick and roll is a half court play and he is supposed to be a very good executor of the pick and roll. Kevin Love would be good here and Al could be a great bail out option if the center comes for help on Kevin.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
I think it would more likely be Evans, Curry, and #18 or Evans, Flynn and #18. It sounds like it will go
1. Griffin
2. Thabeet
3. Harden
4. Rubio
The wildcard is #3 and #4. But if both OKC and SAC are bluffing, it goes as above. Then wolves have evans, curry, flynn to choose from. Can’t take both Curry and Flynn.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
that’s the result I was hoping to avoid, but becomes much more likely if Memphis takes Thabeet.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DraftExpress thinks there’s a strong chance OKC will take Rubio at 3 and then look to move him. If that happens, Harden probably falls in the Wolves’ lap at 5.
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he definitely falls into the Wolves lap
Definitely, definitely. No way sacramento takes Harden. It would make absolutely no sense. Sac would take Evans or Curry at #4 or even Flynn if they are crazy.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Express
update at 10pm (EST)
has
1. Griffin
2. Thabeet
3. Rubio (to keep)
4. Flynn/Evans
5. Harden
6. Curry/Flynn/Evans
Could be Harden and Curry to the Wolves. Not too bad.
by littleboxes on Jun 24, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, offensively, that team could have some serious potential, and they could maybe be one Al Farouq Aminu away from having some teeth. ;)
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The top 3 seem set, with Griffin, Thabeet and Rubio, with OKC refusing to trade out. I think this is actually good for the wolves as Harden to me is the best 2 guard prospect and hopefully Curry.
As long Memphis goes with Flynn or Evans, I like how things are shaping up.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sam Presti must be having multiple joygasms
right now. I don’t think there’s any way that he passes on Rubio. Pairing him up with Durant gives OKC an under-25 dynamic duo that could be the his Marketing Dept.‘s dream. Think of the jerseys to sell. Think of the overseas following. Think of the fact that Four Letter and TNT wouldn’t want to miss broadcasting Thunder/Lakers, Thunder/Cavs, Thunder/etc.
I’m perfectly happy sticking with the 5 and 6 (hopefully Curry and Harden) and keeping K-Love and Big Al. The team will be improved and, since we don’t have a coach yet (what style will we end up playing and who fits in), we still have lots of assets for possible future deals.
If we really want Rubio, it will cost us. So let me throw this out: Love, #6, #28 for Jeff Green and the #3. It would probably work under the cap and would get us Rubio and a pretty good forward. (Disclaimer – I wouldn’t do this deal – just throwing it out for discussion. Be gentle!)
by SoDakHmr on Jun 24, 2009 9:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Assuming you are right about
Presti wanting Rubio so badly, then it would be cheaper to trade up to number 2 than 3…
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Latest Nugget from DX
I wonder who we are targeting and if this is wise use of Pekovic…
Minnesota supposedly may not be done making moves, and could be looking to package some assets and move up even higher in the first round. Right now they seem to be dangling the #18 pick and Nikola Pekovic, possibly to Detroit sitting at 15. Gerald Henderson could very well be their target, as he’s likely gone one pick later by Chicago.
by Ebomb on Jun 24, 2009 10:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably not for 3 picks
But I would definitely consider something involving Pekovic cuz I dont think we will ever see him in a Wolves uniform either way. Much like our Euro prospects of the past few years.
The more I look at it the more I want Jodie Meeks with our second round pick. He is exactly what we need as a 3 point specialist. He is so low in the draft because he is not seen as a good leader of Kentucky. But his value lies in his role player ability. He would be an exceptional player off the bench just to get something going. We wouldn’t need to (but we could) send him to the DLeague because he could contribute now with his scoring ability behind the 3 point line. In my opinion he will be the steal of the second round this year as far as an immediate impact.
Paul Harris seems like a bust… sorry, people here seem to like him but I just took a look at his 3pt% and its awful.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that seems awfully obscure.
Here’s a simple idea: offer the 18, 28, and Pekovic to New Jersey for the #11. They’re supposedly interested in Hansborough and Terrance Williams, both of whom might be available at #18, and they might get both with those two picks. And they pick up the rights to the best big man in Europe for their trouble, who may (or may not) be ready to come over to help entice Lebron.
Then, turn around and offer the Grizz the #5 and #11 for the #2. Maybe they are bluffing about not trading their pick; I don’t know. But I don’t think they turn that down. That gives them a great shot at either a Tyreke Evans + DeJaun Blair/Earl Clark haul (best case for them), or Jordan Hill + BPA at #11.
Wolves take Rubio at #2, and probably still have a shot at Harden at #6. Following the rumors:
1) LAC, Griffin
2) MIN, Rubio
3) OKC, Thabeet
4) SAC, Flynn
5) MEM, Evans
6) MIN, Harden
Otherwise they take Curry. And if they don’t like the synergy of a Rubio/Curry backcourt, they trade Curry to NYK.
by jianfu on Jun 24, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Put me on record right now
Memphis will trade their pick. Guaranteed. They are waiting to hear the best offer and trying to raise the price by saying they are fine with Thabeet. Thabeet can not and will not work with Marc. Marc isn’t Pau and Thabeet isnt Bynum. They are trading the pick whether its the very last second or not. They may even take a deal that they have previously turned down (i.e. 6 and 18) when nothing else comes along.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 10:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Could be that you're right
But ultimately, I’m worried about Chris Wallace just being paralyzed and not doing anything. On the one hand, I agree that they should trade the pick. On the other hand, if Wallace just takes Thabeet, he can say he took the one big guy in this draft and insulate himself to some extent from criticism.
On a related note….is 6 and 18 (or even 5 and 18) really a good deal for them? I understand not wanting to go 5&6 for 2, and I don’t think I’d do it either (well, maybe I would, but I know I’m the only one), but how much value does the 18 really have? Realistically, in a good draft 18 is a marginal pick.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In this draft...
18 is pretty much on pace with 8…
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think this is remotely true
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right--
and to prove it, the Wolves should call up the Knicks and say, “Hey, this draft is pretty much a crapshoot, right? So why don’t you give us your 8th pick in exchange for our 18th pick—even up/”
Although, to be fair, the gap in perceived value between 8 and 18 is probably smaller than in normal years.
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Truer than you think
How big of a difference do you really think there will be between Demar DeRozan and Gerald Henderson 2 years down the road? Outside chance DeRozan pans out and he is an allstar. Could say the same about Austin Daye who is going at 22 on draftexpress. Again on draftexpress, Hansbrough is going 20 while James Johnson is going at 11….. I bet Hansbrough is better than Johnson from the beginning to the end of both of their pro careers.
I’m not saying 18 is equal to 8, I was being a little facetious there, but obviously everyone here is completely literal 100% of the time… I’m saying that compared to other years, the drop in talent between 8 to 18 is negligible.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
You can even say that there isn’t a huge difference between 4 and 18. Ty Lawson could realistically have a better career than Tyreke Evans, in my opinion. There just aren’t any huge prospects other than Griffin, and then Rubio/Thabeet, who have some question marks themselves. 8 is better than 18, but not by as much as in usual drafts.
by Andy G on Jun 25, 2009 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe try to use 18 & 28 to move up to the late lottery?
if Wallace was rational, i’d say PF & back up (maybe future starting) PG make the most sense.
if he likes Hill at #6, where can he pick up the PG he wants in the draft?
if he likes a PG at #6, he’d probably have to be pretty sold on Blair or Hansborough or willing to go with a SF-PF type like Clark.
outside shot, I guess he could be interested in acquiring Derozan and moving Gay for a big or PG… don’t know where his bottom is.
to be honest, i think they’re going Thabeet and they’ll either look to move Gasol or keep him as the back up if Thabeet works (at 3 mill per, it’s not like Gasol makes starting center money).
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, if you could use 18, 28, Pekovic to get hold of, say, 12
then Wallace might be interested in 6 and 12 for 2.
I’d do that without thinking twice, but then I love Rubio.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Rubio is their guy and if something like this is going to be done, it’s imperative that they get to a spot where Memphis is assured to get someone they like at 12 before Memphis does what they do and takes Thabeet.
by homer simpson on Jun 24, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but with this draft, I think it's possible
If they want Hill at 6, that’s a no brainer—he’ll be there. Then with the later pick, they can almost certainly get a point guard prospect to back up/compete with Conley.
Might be able to get the 10th pick from the Bucks if we’re willing to take Dan Gadzuric’s contract, which has 2 years left, in exchange for an expiring (Cardinal) and 18.
At 10, Memphis has options—they want a big guard like Holiday? They like Lawson? Those guys would be there. Heck, Hill might still be there at 10 if they want to roll the dice with a higher upside guard at 6.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be a waste
considering we have 5 and 6, how about we trade both of those and gasp move down! we get 2 and 8, NY gets 5 or 6 and Marko from Mem, and Mem gets 5 or 6 and someone from NY.
We get our oh so coveted PG and DeRozan at 8 and we dont even have to give up other picks. Plus, we lower our salary by picking 8.
If this doesn’t work, try it out again with Toronto at 9.
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might do that
So it would be:
To Memphis: 5th pick and Wil Chandler
To NY: 6th pick and Marko
To MN: 2nd and 8th?
I might do that. I’d prefer to move 18 and parts to move up, because I don’t really want the 18th pick, frankly, and so I’d rather move to 2 and stay at 6 even if it costs me 18 and Pekovic, but I’d do your deal if I had to.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The question should be...
are they going to do any better?
by Auswolf on Jun 25, 2009 1:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you taking at 6
that wont be there at 8? We already have our PG, so unless Harden is your target… And I feel like DeRozan and Rubio are a better combo than Harden and Rubio (minus the shooting problem) because Rubio’s passes will be better received by DeRozan while he is a foot above the hoop. Shooters can be found later in the draft (again…I’m extremely high on Jodie Meeks as a role player).
by Mplax on Jun 24, 2009 11:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Harden
I think he’s much better than DeRozan. Frankly, I don’t think DeRozan is very good. He isn’t going to be a foot above the rim, I don’t think.
Frankly, I’d rather go Rubio/Curry than DeRozan, even with the problems that could entail.
Of course, YMMV. I’ve been wrong before. More than once.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who hasnt
And I agree, Harden is better than DeRozan…now…. and while I think Harden will be better than him, I could be wrong. DeRozan’s potential is as high as his vertical. And with Rubio, I think DeRozan will have a better shot of reaching that potential. I agree though, it is tough to pass on Harden because he will be very very good in a year or two. But I think for the value we might be giving up at 18, where we could get another contributor or high potential guy (whichever way we decide to go, there will be someone there – Daye/Hansbrough at the very least). Its a tough call. Personally I would rather have Rubio and Harden, but for what we have to give up, I might prefer to end up with Rubio and DeRozan…. but like you said, this wouldnt be the first time I am wrong.
by Mplax on Jun 25, 2009 12:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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