Final Draft Boards

OK folks, let's get right into this.  Here is the final Community Draft Board, voted on by all y'all:

  1. Blake Griffin
  2. Ricky Rubio
  3. James Harden
  4. Stephen Curry
  5. Hasheem Thabeet
  6. Tyreke Evans
  7. Demar DeRozan
  8. Brandon Jennings
  9. Jrue Holiday
  10. Jonny Flynn
  11. Jordan Hill
  12. Ty Lawson
  13. Earl Clark
  14. Eric Maynor
  15. Austin Daye
  16. Gerald Henderson
  17. Terrence Williams
  18. B.J. Mullens
  19. Jeff Teague
  20. DeJuan Blair
  21. Nick Calathes
  22. Sam Young
  23. James Johnson

We only had single votes through the Henderson pick but I filled out the rest by adding up the votes of the past 3 polls and using the results to fill out the list.  If our readers have their way, it is likely that the Wolves will be holding a presser introducing Stephen Curry and James Harden on Friday morning. Our very own Hoopus Draft Board is located below the fold.

Let me first begin with quick reminder of how the Hoopus Score works

We have divided the Hoopus Score into two parts: quantity and quality.  To give you a basic idea of how this formula works, the first number is a per-100 possession average of Four Factor related efficiency stats.  It deals with how efficiently a player scores, how well he gets to the line, how little (or much) he turns it over, and how well he cleans the glass.  The second number is a per-game tally of the number of net positive events a player accumulates.  We add up things like points, rebounds, assists, and blocks; we weight them and then subtract things like turnovers, fouls, and missed free throws, which are also weighted.

Keep in mind that we do not rank European players with this scoring system.  That is why you won't see Ricky Rubio on the list. 

We have also divided the draft board into 3 tiers: guards, wings, and bigs.  Before we get around to the final list, here is how each position broke down:

Guards:

  1. Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803)
  2. James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793)
  3. Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668)
  4. Nick Calathes: 33.3/10.575 (43.875)
  5. Jeff Teague: 35.525/7.813 (43.358)
  6. Eric Maynor: 32.875/9.558 (42.433)
  7. Lee Cummard: 30.6/11.359 (41.959)
  8. Marcus Thornton: 31.875/9.685 (41.156)
  9. Toney Douglas: 31.25/8.842 (40.092)
  10. Tyreke Evans: 31.4/8.414 (39.814)
  11. Jonny Flynn: 31.825/7.285 (39.11)
  12. Gerald Henderson: 30.5/7.808 (38.308)
  13. Darren Collison: 29.8/7.757 (37.557)
  14. Wayne Ellington: 27.3/8.828 (36.128)
  15. Jrue Holiday: 25.5/5.393 (30.893)

Wings:

  1. Evan Turner: 36.5/10.359 (47.009)
  2. Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179)
  3. Al Farouq Aminu: 35.475/8.758 (44.233)
  4. Kyle Singler: 31.525/9.666 (41.191)
  5. Ty Smith: 32.8/7.867 (40.667)
  6. Chase Budinger: 29.575/10.953 (40.528)
  7. Damion James: 31.05/9.3 (40.35)
  8. DeJuan Summers: 33.625/5.370 (38.62)
  9. Sam Young: 29.8/8.196 (37.996)
  10. Terrence Williams: 26.775/11.06 (37.835)
  11. Earl Clark: 28.75/8.867 (37.617)
  12. Austin Daye: 28.725/7.838 (36.588)
  13. Danny Green: 25.325/8.921 (34.246)

Bigs:

  1. Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196)
  2. Hasheem Thabeet:  42.7/14.703 (57.4)
  3. DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403)
  4. Tyler Hansbrough: 39.375/13.766 (53.141)
  5. Cole Aldrich: 35/14.863 (49.863)
  6. Jerome Jordan: 38.55/10.652 (49.202)
  7. Greg Monroe: 37.475/9.822 (47.297)
  8. Jordan Hill: 33.999/12.451 (46.45)
  9. B.J. Mullens: 36.875/5.787 (42.622)
  10. James Johnson: 29.375/10.77 (40.145)

What we have done in the time since the last draft board is work on figuring out how each group should be weighted in relation to the others.  What we found is that this particular class's guards fare the most favorably against past classes followed by wings and then bigs.  There was some disagreement about the method we should use to measure this difference but at the end of the day we decided that it would be best if we just bridged the gap with some good ol' fashioned subjective informed guesses.  We will track this data for another year or two before we plug in a real weight in this part of the equation.  Throwing it all together here is what we came up with for tier one (picks 1-10):

  1. Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196-big)
  2. Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803-guard)
  3. James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793-guard)
  4. Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179-wing)
  5. Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668-guard)
  6. Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4-big) 
  7. DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403-big)

 

Tier Two (picks 11-20):

  1. Tyler Hansbrough: 39.375/13.766 (53.141-big)
  2. Nick Calathes: 33.3/10.575 (43.875-guard)
  3. Eric Maynor: 32.875/9.558 (42.433-guard) (17.2/13-22)
  4. Jeff Teague: 35.525/7.813 (43.358-guard) (15.2/8-22)
  5. Marcus Thornton: 31.875/9.685 (41.156-guard) (26.3/23-2nd)

Tier Three (picks 21-30):

  1. Jordan Hill: 33.999/12.451 (46.45-big)
  2. Lee Cummard: 30.6/11.359 (41.959-guard)
  3. Chase Budinger: 29.575/10.953 (40.528-wing)
  4. Tyreke Evans: 31.4/8.414 (39.814-guard)
  5. Jonny Flynn: 31.825/7.285 (39.11-guard)
  6. Gerald Henderson: 30.5/7.808 (38.308-guard)
  7. Sam Young: 29.8/8.196 (37.996-wing)
  8. Terrence Williams: 26.775/11.06 (37.835-wing)
  9. James Johnson: 29.375/10.77 (40.145-big)
  10. Toney Douglas: 31.25/8.842 (40.092-guard)
  11. Wayne Ellington: 27.3/8.828 (36.128-guard)

OK, a few things.  You will probably notice that we do not think very highly of Jonny Flynn and Tyreke Evans.  Evans was a tough call.  On one hand, we all know the positives: He has upper-level height, length, and strength for his position and he can score the damn ball.  On the other hand, he can't shoot.  It's not just that he can't shoot from outside, but he can't shoot from anywhere.  From spot up situations to isolation, Evans shoots roughly 25% on jump shot opportunities.  This wouldn't be so problematic if jump shots didn't account for 40% of his possessions.  On top of that, he's not exactly the world's greatest isolation player, scoring 0.54 ppp in these situations.  This stat especially worries me in light of the physical display that Evans put on during his workout day with the Wolves.  Against smaller guards he was able to muscle his way to the rim but he wasn't able to do this as efficiently as we'd all like to believe while at Memphis.  When you don't have a jump shot and when you are inefficient in iso situations, where are you getting your points?  Transition, transition, transition.  Last  year's game against Missiouri was a perfect template for what Evans brings to the table.  He will torch teams in transition and in free-flowing opportunities into the lane, but he will torch his own team with his jumper and relative inability to create his own shot in a half court setting.  The caveat here is that Evans' poor score is almost entirely dependent on his awful shooting.  Unlike Flynn, who was somewhat underwhelming across the board, Evans is held back by one major thing.  If you believe his shot is fixable, then he moves up the board.  Since we here at Hoopus don't exactly have the type of scouting ability to answer this question, we'll stick with his college record.  In terms of the Wolves, Evans is not a good pick.  He is more in the D-Wade model than Randy Foye ever was or will be, but he's not a good shooter and his isolation abilities are not up to snuff enough to make up for the awful, terrible, no-good jumper.

The other big thing you will notice is that Demar DeRozan is the only wing player worth a peak in the lotto.  This year's wing class doesn't have a single player that jumps out and grabs your attention.  DeRozan has the tools to be a very solid, but not spectacular, player.  The thing that most stands out about DeRozan is his mid-range game and his steady improvement throughout the season.  He also may be a perfect fit for a Rubio-led Wolves. 

DeRozan was able to score at USC without even the threat of three point proficiency.  He made up for his lack of outside shooting by racking up a 56% mark from 2 with 49% in isolation, 43% in catch-and-shoot, and 41% on pull up jumpers. Throw in an above average OReb% for his position as well as a modest ability to get to the line and you have a player with upper-level athleticism and a....boring middle range workman-like game.  Think Ryan Gomes with hops and a higher upside rather than Gerald Green or Vince Carter.  DeRozan is the type of player who will need a good point guard at the next level.  Until he can develop his dribble-drive game, he will need to be set up in the 1/2 court.  While we all wait for that to happen, he has the tools to be a good defender, excellent rebounder for his position, and a solid mid-range player.  If the Wolves make a trade up to the two spot for Rubio, DeRozan is exactly the type of player you want to put with him at the off guard spot.  Just remember that he's more lunch bucket than someone with that type of athleticism would suggest. 

As for the other wings, there is one player I'm willing to overlook his statistical shortcomings: Austin Daye.  From the length to the shooting to the potential, if he's available at 18, he may be worth the long-term investment.  He could also be an interesting three point specialist and outside threat...which is something the Wolves are in a sore need of at this point in time.  He doesn't need to start for the Wolves to be effective if he can hit the 3.

For long-time readers of the site, it should come as no surprise that I am a big Stephen Curry fan and I would like nothing more than to see Curry line up in a Wolves uniform in November.  With a current starting back court of Sebastian Telfair and Bobby Brown, and with Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and Rashad McCants no longer with the team, the Wolves are in a bad, bad need of someone who can shoot the rock.  Curry is not J.J. Redick 2.0.  He has legit lead-guard abilities and a skill that will keep him in the league for a long, long time no matter how he pans out: he can shoot the damn ball.

Since we've kind of gone on a little long with this post, and since we've made our thoughts on most of these players known in prior posts let's wrap this up by giving a short list of 2nd round targets and then laying out two scenarios we would like to see from the Wolves.

  1. Victor Claver- A 6-10" athlete who scores by shooting 3s or finishing at the rim.  He is coming off an injury but is still very young.
  2. Paul Harris- Jonny Flynn's backcourt partner at Syracuse has the potential to be an excellent perimeter defender with some offensive skills to boot.  He is the one player that the Wolves absolutely should take if he is available at #45.
  3. Nando de Colo- French guard with an awesome set of skills and a high b-ball IQ.
  4. Alade Aminu- A project big who saw limited time at Georgia Tech.  He has amazing length and athleticism for his position.  He could be placed in the D-League or sent to Europe.
  5. Sergio Llull- The other young Spanish point.  This one has excellent size and athleticism for the position while being able to shoot from long-range.
  6. Danny Green- Good size and athleticism with defensive potential on the perimeter.
  7. Rodrigue Beaubois- Unbelievable quickness, ridiculous handle, amazing length, and...well, that's pretty much it at this point.  Beaubois has the physical tools to be a Rondo-esque player at the point.  Whether he has the skills or mental makeup is another question all together.
  8. Jodie Meeks- I will be amazed if he is available at 45 but if he is, he might be worth a look. 
  9. Robert Dozier- Solid defensive potential.  Good length and rebounding ability to go along with a developing shot.  Length and athleticism are big pluses; age and strength are negatives.
  10. Jack McClinton- McClinton is going to make some team very, very, very happy with their selection.  He's a bit old and he probably isn't starting material at the next level but he is tough as hell, can shoot the lights out, and could even be used as a pint-sized 3 point specialist off the bench.  McClinton would definitely be worth a peek.
  11. Goran Suton- He takes up space and can rebound.
  12. Josh Heytvelt- Assuming he's all done with eating shrooms, and that he has sufficiently recovered from his injury, Heytvelt is an interesting fit for the Wolves.  He's athletic and long but he's not a very good defender.
  13. Jimmy Baron- An amazing, amazing, amazing 3 point shooter from Rhode Island.  He's a long shot but who isn't with the 47th pick?

What the hell, throw in Ben Woodside for good Minnesota homer measure.  Here are the two scenarios we would like to see from the Wolves

Keep the picks (in order of preference at each spot):

  • #5- Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, James Harden
  • #6- Demar DeRozan, James Harden
  • #18- DeJuan Blair, Ty Hansbrough, Austin Daye, E
  • #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
  • #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
  • #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list

Rubio shoot-the-moon:

  • Trade #6 and 18 to Memphis for the #2 pick
  • #2- Ricky Rubio
  • Trade #5 to GSW or the Knicks for the highest Curry-related bid or draft Harden or Evans
  • Draft Demar DeRozan (if the trade is made)
  • #28- Nick Calathes, Victor Claver, Nando de Colo
  • #45- Paul Harris, Alade Aminu, Sergio Llull, Danny Green
  • #47- left-overs from above pick plus remaining 2nd round list

Whatever happens going forward, there are a few things I would really like to see from the Wolves:

  1. If they do make the 6 + 18 for 2 trade, and they do pick Rubio, I hope they are creative as hell with that #5 pick.  They will likely be able to draft Curry and move him for a decent amount in return. 
  2. If they do decide to go with Evans, they need to have someone like Curry to pair him with.  I can completely see what Evans brings to the table outside of his jump shot and if you are going to put him on the Wolves, he needs to be paired with Curry.  Evans/Curry is a back court I could completely get behind. 
  3. The Wolves need to use picks 28, 45, and 47 on players that can stay in Europe or go to the D-League.  No selling the 28th pick
  4. The Wolves absolutely cannot package 5 and 6 for 2.  Memphis is in a corner here and there is no reason to let them out.  They will end up with Thabeet or Hill and like it. 

Well that about does it.  What say you?  What does your draft board look like?  Let us know in the comments.

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