Why it should and how it could be Rubio at #2 for the Wolves
by PoorDick on Jun 24, 2009 10:20 AM CDT
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Plenty of Wolves fans would be perfectly happy to get some combo of Curry/Evans/DeRozan at the 5/6 picks, and as well we should be. But here is why I think the Wolves should get Rubio, and that it should come from Rubio being drafted in the 2nd spot.
First, the way it could happen:
1. Memphis drafts Rubio #2
2. OKC takes Harden at #3
3. Sacto takes Evans or Thabeet at #4
4. At #5, Wolves pick whomever Sacto doesn't take a the #4
The Wolves then package the player picked at #5 along with some combo of picks and players (#6, #18, # 28, Smith, etc.) and trade the package for Rubio and filler.
Now, why it should happen:
1. Memphis and Rubio don't want or need each other, but Rubio needs the salary of the #2 pick to help offset the costs of his buyout.
2. Hoping that Rubio slides to the 5th pick not only means that OKC or Sacto might take him, but that some other team might make a mind-blowing offer to OKC or Sacto to get Rubio before the Wolves can take him.
3. Rubio is the only player besides Griffin for whom any team would make a mind-blowing offer. That speaks to both his talent, potential, and value he might bring back to the Wolves now or in the future.
4. An effective pass-first distributor is much more difficult to find, and more valuable to a team like the Wolves than an efficient-scoring 2-guard. I also think Rubio's value comes from his decision-making, rather than his athleticism, so I believe he will have a longer NBA career than if the strengths and weaknesses were reversed.
5. Here are Rubio's stat lines from the Gold Medal game in the Olympics, where he was playing with an injured hand:
FG 3pt FT Off Reb Ast Stl BS Rudy Fernandez 7 - 13 5 - 9 3 - 3 0 2 2 1 0 22 Pau Gasol 9 - 18 0 - 0 3 - 5 4 6 1 0 0 21 Juan Carlos Navarro 6 - 14 0 - 2 6 - 8 0 3 4 0 0 18 Carlos Jimenez 3 - 4 2 - 3 4 - 4 1 3 1 1 0 12 Marc Gasol 5 - 9 0 - 1 1 - 2 3 5 1 0 0 11 Felipe Reyes 5 - 8 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 7 2 1 1 10 Ricky Rubio 1 - 3 0 - 1 4 - 4 1 6 3 3 0 6
He had some impressive teammates in that game, to be sure. But their opponents were at least the second-best basketball team ever assembled. Wade, Kobe, LeBron, CP3, Carmelo, DHoward, etc. were certainly better than any other college player any of the other potential picks went up against in college. But the age-equivalent of a kid just finishing his junior year in high school held his own against talent far superior to any that he will face against a regular NBA team.
6. Harden's nice, I really like Curry, and Evans is intriguing. But none of them have the potential to be the type of game-changer that Rubio can be. And, if the Wolves can keep the 6th pick, Curry or Harden (or Thabeet, for that matter) could still be available.
7. No player (Griffin included) will energize the casual fan like Rubio. Beyond just the passer-by basketball fans. Case in point: Have you been to a Twins game recently? Girls and women go there. Nice ones, and nice looking ones. That didn't happen when Roy Smalley was prowling the middle infield, and it's no coincidence that fan interest has increased with the addition of young, appealing starts like Mauer and Morneau. I don't think Kahn will get Rubio just because he looks like the Jonas Brothers' cousin, but Kahn won't avoid Rubio because of it, either.
8. As has been mentioned elsewhere, don't discount David Stern's hand in getting a young, flashy, international player to the team that is now run by Stern's hand-picked candidate. If Memphis needs some coaxing in the deal, Stern will be there to provide it.
9. If you need further convincing of Rubio's skills, go to the profile of this year's point guards at the highly-regarded HoopsAnalyst:
There’s enough good and potentially great in Ricky Rubio’s numbers to make him one of the top picks in this draft. If I were a GM my top priority was a PG that I could develop and wait a season or two on, I would do everything in my power to land this guy. Any player that dominates in Europe on at least some level at ages 17 and 18 the way he has is a serious prospect. The scoring should eventually get better. If not a stellar combination of passing and defense brought Jason Kidd a pretty strong career and it should do the same for Rubio.
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I agree
It was interesting reading Jerry Zgoda’s columns at the STrib talking about what a rare prospect Thabeet is at 7’3" but I’d argue Rubio is even rarer. He’s been measured at 6’5" with a 6’9" wingspan, and is a pure point prospect. As you mention, you have to go all the way back to Jason Kidd, or maybe Shaun Livingston to find a tall pure point prospect like this. The fact that his passing creativity is well documented and his assist numbers in the assist stingy Euroleague are off the charts, I would love to acquire him. Turnovers and Shooting are reasons for pause, but their are signs of hope in his 2009 ACB 3PT% of 42%.
Ideally I think you want long, atheltic players at the 2 and 3 who can defend and shoot, and finish in the break. I think I like Harden better in that role, don’t really think Evans is a great fit due to his shooting and playing below the rim, and Curry makes Rubio’s defensive strengths potential weaknesses if he has to guard the 2. Gambling on DeRozan may be the best bet, as his skill set seems to match the best, but shying away from BPA is what get’s you killed if Curry has a solid career and DeRozan busts.
Right on all accounts
Rubio’s downside is as a serviceable starting point guard in the NBA over a long career. His upside is “Can You Believe the Wolves Could Have Drafted Rubio?” Players like Evans, DeRozan, and even Harden and Curry are available via the draft, FA, and trades. But Rubio’s upside will never be available to the Wolves in free agency, and I hope they never get in a position to draft in the Top 2 again, unless it’s a thousand-to-one bounce of the ping pong balls.
I ask Memphis what they want for that 2nd pick, pretend to think about it, and then give it to them. In trying to think like Kahn, if Love is the 4th-best and AlJeff the 2nd-best player on a very good team, I think Kahn thinks Rubio could become that 1st-best player on a good team. He plays the most-difficult and most-crucial position in basketball, and has done so at a higher level and younger age than any other point guard prospect—ever. Jennings is close in those respects, but doesn’t have the ability to distribute like Rubio.
To go along with the casual fan thing
Does anyone in this draft come even close to selling as many jerseys as Rubio will, wherever he ends up, whether he pans out or not? I think he would definitely bring an excitement that no other player in this draft can match, Griffin included.
by jor the frenchie on Jun 24, 2009 12:01 PM CDT reply actions
Not even close
Ricky You-Tubio will put buts in the seats and jerseys on the backs of emptied wallet fans.
Plus, as much as I love Pau
people identify with guards more than they do 7 footers. I understand the difference between Spain and Mexico/Central America (well, I do now, that is), but why Yao’s appeal to Chinese nationals and immigrants is always 1a of his attributes, very little has been mentioned about Ricky’s attraction among those who hablo Espanol.
This draft could certainly go down in history as a bad one for talent, too. But in terms of personal appeal of the players, it will be historical in terms of how many Duncan-esque personalities are chosen (Griffin, Harden, Curry, Rubio, perhaps Thabeet, etc). Knuckleheads are in short supply, or are at least informed by their agents how to keep it straight.
About the gold medal game...
Rubio was injured (I don’t remember if it was in the first quarter or in the second quarter). That’s the injury that required surgery and cost him several games in the Spanish regular season. So when you take into account that he played injured against CP3, Deron Williams and Jason Kidd and looked solid you have to think that he will succeed in the NBA. If he plays against Beno Udrih, Steve Blake or a similar PG being healthy it could be a “fiesta”. If I have to choose one game of Rubio in the Olympics that would be Spain vs. China. Spain started the fourth quarter down 10 and Rubio led Spain to force the OT and then win the game. He really changed that game. It was pretty awesome.
Another reason to be positive about Rubio’s career in the NBA is that he averaged in assist almost double than Calderon in his last season in the Spanish league. Pretty nice for an 18yo kid. Seriously, if Chris Wallace wants a blowjob for the 2nd pick, Jim Stack should buy a pair of kneepads and get the job done.
Wow and to now realize that Rubio was there at 5
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jun 26, 2009 5:29 AM CDT up reply actions
#5 doesn't allow him to pay the buyout
Now you can wait TWO years or trade him to NY… or praise for a lot of endorsments
New From Henry Abbot
There have been rumblings and suggestions that if things get extremely complicated with Ricky Rubio’s Spanish team, DKV Joventut, he might not be able to afford to play in the NBA. Depending on where he’s drafted, it’s conceivable that his NBA salary will approximate the buyout he owes his original team. In other words, he might play in the NBA without making a penny.
Rubio says that wouldn’t bother him. “I have a dream,” he said. “I want to play in the NBA.”
The point guard, who presumably could make some money from sponsorships, could not have been clearer that it’s not about the money. If his rookie contract nets him zero, he says, “I don’t care.”
In a video that will be on TrueHoop shortly, he also was asked to react to various NBA cities. His gut reaction to the word “Minnesota” was: “Too cold.” Oklahoma City earned a “My best friend lives nearby.” And when Rubio thinks of Sacramento, the first thing that comes to mind is: “Nice weather.”
Quick--get him into town now
when it’s 93 degrees out at high noon. He’ll never believe that in six months, the temperature could easily be 120 degrees lower. And by then, he’ll be under contract.
Memphis Boards
Looking at the Grizzlies board they seem to have a very different idea of what a trade with them might look like. The primary options I’ve seen are -
1 – #2 for #5 & #6 – this seems to be the primary assumption they are making
2 – #2 & filler (Conley/Arthur) for #5, #18 & Love – or some similar combination that has us giving up Love
3 – #2 for #5, #18 & #28 – less mentioned
None of those seem palatable to me.
Thoughts?
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Kahn
Just emphatically stated with emphasis that #5 and #6 will never be on the table for #2 in his press conference.
I would be disappointed
if he said anything different at this point. Even if the picks actually ARE on the table for #2.
Don’t get me wrong—I want Rubio more than any other player in this draft, short of Griffin. But I’m not completely sold that Rubio is better for this team now and in the future than say, Evans/Curry.
But I sure would like to see.
Two sides of posturing...
Memphis is acting like Thabeet is their guy—despite a Second Team All-Rookie performance from the Water Buffalo, Mark Gasol. We’re acting like there’s no way we’re giving up 5 and 6 for 2, even though Rubio could be the first great point guard in franchise history.
To me, it comes down to two things:
1) How upset/alarmed is Memphis by Thabeet nixing his workout and making up elementary school excuses for it?
2) How impressed is Kahn with Evans and Harden, and is he willing to sacrifice that 2-guard to make the upgrade from Curry to Rubio?
My guess is that Memphis is more worried about Thabeet’s reluctance to play there than Kahn is confident that Rubio is worth losing Harden—if that makes sense. In other words, we’re more reluctant to do an aggressive trade here, and it’s going to be 5 and 18, or nothing. I don’t see Memphis walking away with 5 and 6.
I think another scenario may be factored in
And that’s what if this plays out:
1. Griffin
2. Thabeet
3. Rubio
4. Curry
Is it really worth gambling on an Evans – Harden backcourt or would giving up both for Rubio make sense. I don’t know if it does, but one of the 5 or 6 picks being Johny Flynn or J’rue Holliday does not excited me.
I think they'll keep the picks until after the draft...
Once the rest of the teams have shown their hand, the Wolves will have 2-4 players who might be valuable to the team that has Rubio or Thabeet. Or, they have one or both of them and don’t have to worry about making a deal. With how much of a crapshoot the draft is, many rookies will never be more valuable than they are on draft night.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 24, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
He would've left himself some wiggle room...
If he thought that a trade was possible. He seems like the type of public speaker who knows that it’s better to hedge than make a bold statement that might not be backed up.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 24, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
But didn't he say, and then retract that
he wouldn’t draft Curry if Curry wouldn’t work out for the team?
Those are absurd...
…Memphis has zero room to make demands to a team that could sit tight and get what it wants.
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Amen
Memphis is in a really tough spot here. I doubt they get a better offer than 5 or 6 plus 18 for #2 and I watched Kahn press conference. I don’t believe there is any chance we’re sending 5 AND 6 to Memphis…if that happens, Kahn will forever have a credibility problem (wouldn’t be the first GM).
I wonder what Memphis will do with Gasol…probably an above average NBA center as long as there is an athletic PF next time to help defend.
I’m beginning to get a little worried about this draft scenario:
LAC: Griffin
Mem: Thabeet
OKC: Harden
Sac: Evans
MN: Rubio
MN: Curry
I’d be thrilled to have Rubio and I like Steph Curry a lot and they have complimentary skills. Rubio is a brilliant passer and Curry can stroke it. But, unless Curry hits that rumored growth spurt, that back court is too small and not athletic enough. Who’s guarding Kobe, Roy etc?
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 24, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Do they look to deal with the Knicks then?
Rumor has it that they were willing to give up Wilson Chandler and #8 for #5. Or maybe the Warriors are interested.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 24, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I think so...
Take Rubio with #5, make the trade with the Knicks and draft DeRozan as SG of the future. He scares me a bit, but serious upside there. Frankly, Chandler probably has a brighter future than most of the picks between 6-10.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 24, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Chad Ford...
reporting on this same thing (minus trade). Apparently, we’re taking a hard look at Flynn too. I don’t love Flynn, but am ok with it as long as he’s paired with Harden.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 24, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
why
why take Flynn when you know the Knicks desire Curry? If you really want Flynn you take Curry and you trade him to the Knicks for the rights to #8 and cash. and even more cash by giving the Knicks #28, if glen is getting desperate.
Nice call on this, by the way
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Well apparently our offer for Craig Smith + #5 didn't get Wallace to bite
Memphis has refused multiple trades offers from Minnesota because the Timberwolves aren’t prepared to part with both the No. 5 and 6 picks or toss in Kevin Love in another scenario with just the No. 6 pick, a source with knowledge of the Grizzlies’ situation told ESPN.com…
The Grizzlies are, according to the source, prepared to make Connecticut’s Hasheem Thabeet the No. 2 pick in the draft if they cannot get a deal for the selection.
Memphis discussed sending the No. 2 to Minnesota for the No. 5 and No. 6, but the Timberwolves have been consistent that they don’t want to give away two top 10 picks. The TWolves also rejected the offer for No. 6 and Love. The Timberwolves offered either No. 5 or 6 and Craig Smith for the No. 2, but Memphis rejected that trade, too. The source said there was never any discussion involving Minnesota’s No. 18 pick.
The Grizzlies aren’t seriously talking with any other team about the No. 2 pick, but did have an initial discussion with Oklahoma City for the No. 3 pick and Thabo Sefolosha, but that deal was rejected by the Thunder. The Grizzlies had an initial discussion with the Sacramento Kings to move No. 2 for No. 4 and Jason Thompson but that was declined, as well. The source said New York is not pursuing the No. 2 pick, but the Knicks and the Grizzlies have talked about a straight up trade with the Grizzlies sending Darko Milicic to New York for Quentin Richardson. Both players have expiring contracts.
Thabeet is atop the Grizzlies draft board with Memphis’ Tyreke Evans second, followed by Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn and Davidson’s Stephen Curry. The Grizzlies have given up trying to get Ricky Rubio and the source said they didn’t want to deal with the buyout issues.
They are holding 18 in reserve
and hopefully they’ll work around to it. Smith is a ruse.
The only problem from our point of view is that Memphis also have a late first (27). They may not be keen on drafting three rookie scale deals either.
Oh, and there is no way Rubio is falling to 5 on his own. OKC have been working out details of a buyout for Rubio’s Spanish contract. he won’t fall past 3 now.
Latest
I’m told OKC will take Hasheem Thabeet at No. 3 if he’s there, though there are concerns that he’ll struggle on a team for which he’s the No. 1 post option. I’m also told that if Thabeet’s not there, the Thunder will take James Harden. GM Sam Presti loves Ricky Rubio, but he knows Russell Westbrook will be angered to the point of wanting out if OKC drafts another PG.
or
Presti knows that Memphis wants Thabeet and this is his bluff to destroy a MN trade for Rubio. Why would OKC be meeting with Rubio’s agent and working on details of his buyout if they were not serious about getting Rubio?
What is OKC’s incentive to pretend to like Rubio? Damn you, Sam Presti.
Wolves need to be willing to take back Memphis salary and hope that Memphis believes something good will be there at #5 (which we draft with #6 to save them money).
I should add
that, clearly, if Memphis believe OKC will not draft Thabeet, Memphis knows it can trade Rubio and still get Thabeet because Sac-town is not taking Thabeet.
I posted this in another thread, but it seems to fit here regarding Memphis and Thabeet
On another note: word out of Memphis is that they are going to keep the pick and take Thabeet. This cuts both ways for us, but I see it as a net negative.
It essentially eliminates any chance for my dream result of Rubio and Harden. OKC will wind up with one of those two if Thabeet is gone. It also means that, without trading, we could wind up with Curry and Evans, which is not my favorite combination, though I do like Curry. That would be if OKC takes Harden and Sac takes Rubio.
On the other hand, it gives us an opportunity to trade with OKC, if they want Harden. Presti must know that Sac won’t take Harden at 4, and therefore it’s no skin off his nose (and actually cheaper) for him to trade back with us on the agreement that we will take Harden for him, and give him another asset like 18. We then wind up with Rubio and Curry, which isn’t ideal but which I could live with.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Memphis wants Thabeet
They either
1) Take him at #2 and are done
2) Take Rubio and attempt to trade for Thabeet (possibly with MN at #6 if both OKC and SAC pass on Thabeet).
I think OKC is bluffing about their Thabeet desire because they want Rubio (as noted above)
But, will Memphis actually call their bluff and will Presti take Thabeet in order to get Rubio from Memphis or just give up and take Harden? If Presti takes Thabeet after Memphis takes Rubio, Presti might try to get Memphis to give him something for Thabeet. What though? Probably just trade them straight up, Memphis saves a bit of cash by paying Thabeet #3 money instead of #2 money.
Pekovic > Thabeet?
I don’t think Memphis does the trade with MN unless they think they can get Thabeet at #5. Otherwise taking Rubio is way too risky (he may not sign) and they can’t anything they want at #5 or #6 if Thabeet is off the board. Jordan Hill is slipping. Maybe Pekovic eases Memphis doubts, but I think that Sam Presti can F the entire thing up by drafting Thabeet at #3.
From Draft Express
Article at 7:20
-Minnesota is offering Oklahoma City the #5 and #18 picks for the #3, but don’t seem likely to get a deal done with those parameters.
Love This
I love how Kahn might make or break his GM legacy with a draft day trade within his own division. Not only that, Presti is a San Antonio alumnus, just like Pritchard. Roy for Foye sunk McHale, can Kahn pull off (does he want to pull off) a trade for Rubio for Harden, #18, and Pekovic?
An interesting story line.
Love + 5/6 for 2? No way...
Some chatter out there that Memphis has asked for Love plus 5 or 6 for 2. That would be an utter disaster. Way too much considering Love would probably be the 2nd or 3rd pick in this year’s draft if he’d stayed in college and know that he’s exceeded expectations as a rookie and is a known commodity, you can’t make this trade. Earlier I thought it might make sense to trade Love for #2 straight-up, but too many question marks surrounding Thabeet and Rubio. Love is a known quantity. A solid 15 point, 10 reb guy for the next decade.
I think our best offer is going to be...
… 5/18/Pekovic’s rights. Possibly a frontcourt filler (Rhino) and taking on Marko again. I don’t think it’ll get it done unless Wallace crumbles under the pressure right before the draft. If we offer much more than that… we’re better off staying at 5/6.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 25, 2009 1:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Getting Marko back would not be ideal.
But it wouldn’t be that bad – this team is woefully short on guards right now.
by princelyfrank on Jun 25, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Not ideal...
… but better than giving up Love. I just think that Memphis needs a little more incentive beyond pressure at this point.
Though now it seems like the future of the Rubio pipe dream rests in OKC.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 25, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
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